Portfolio-ga maalgashiga waa ururinta hantida maaliyadeed, sida kaydka, curaarta, ama cryptocurrency, kaas oo uu shaqsiga maal gashado. Maalgelinta inta badan waxaa lagu gartaa khatarta ay leedahay (sida qiimaha uu u deggan yahay) iyo soo noqoshadeeda (waa maxay faa'iidada la filayo). Maalgashadayaashu waxay higsanayaan inay dhisaan faylal yareeya khatarta inta ay kordhinayaan soo celinta.  Maaddaama maalgashigu dhammaan ku saabsan yahay fahamka tirooyinka, ganacsatada khabiiradu waxay isticmaalaan farsamooyinka sayniska iyo moodooyinka si ay u wanaajiyaan istiraatiijiyadooda maalgashi. Mid ka mid ah moodooyinkaas waa Aragtida Portfolio Modern (MPT), oo sidoo kale loo yaqaan Markowitz Mean-Variance Theory. Qaabku waxa uu bixiyaa faylalka maalgashiga ee ugu wanagsan isaga oo isticmaalaya qiimaynta khatarta waxana uu kordhiyaa soo celinta maalgeliyaha.  Aynu fahano doorka sayniska xogtu ku leeyahay samaynta maalgashi hufan, si faahfaahsan u eegno aragtida faylalka casriga ah, oo aynu ka wada hadalno malo-awaalka iyo khataraha la xidhiidha moodooyinka sayniska xogta.   Wax badan oo ku saabsan Aragtida Kala duwanaanshaha Markowitz  Aragtida Markowitz Mean-Variance Theory waxaa markii ugu horreysay daabacay Harry Markowitz 1952. Aragtidu waxay soo bandhigaysaa qaab xog ku salaysan oo falanqeynaya isbeddellada maaliyadeed si loo qiyaaso khatarta iyo soo noqoshada. Sida qaanuunka suulka ah, maalgashiga waxa loo kala saaraa khatar yar, soo noqosho hoose, iyo khatar sare, soo noqosho sare. Marka la eego kuwa fudud, waxay dejinaysaa in maalgelinta khatarta sare leh ay qaadaan abaal-marin sare iyo lidkeeda.  MPT waxay bixisaa xulashada ugu wanaagsan ee maalgelinta taasoo dheellitiraysa khatarta abaalmarinta. Xulashada kama dambaysta ah ee maalgelinta iyo saamigooda faylalka-koobka waxay ka dhigan tahay istaraatiijiyadda maalgashiga ugu habboon ee ku salaysan isbeddellada xogta.   Sayniska Ka Danbaysa Aragtida Portfolio Casriga ah  Aynu fahamno xisaabta ka dambeysa MPT. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, marka hore, waa in aan fahamnaa dhowr eray oo muhiim ah oo ka dhigaya qaabka xisaabeed ee suurtogalka ah.    Tani waa boqolkiiba soo celinta laga filayo maalgashiga. Waxaa lagu xisaabin karaa iyada oo la adeegsanayo falanqaynta tirakoobka ee isbeddellada taariikheed. Soo noqoshada la filayo:    Tani waxay cabbiraysaa isbeddelka hantida maaliyadeed ee gaarka ah. Waa cabbirka khatarta la xidhiidha maalgashiga, tusaale ahaan, hantida kala duwanaanshiyaha sare waxay xambaarsan tahay khatar sare iyo abaal-marin sare. Waxa kale oo lagu qiyaasaa iyadoo la isticmaalayo falanqaynta tirakoobka ee isbeddellada xogta. Isbeddelka caadiga ah:    Tani waxay qiyaaseysaa xiriirka ka dhexeeya hantida kala duwan. Isku-duubnidu waxay gacan ka geysataa wanaajinta qaybinta faylalka iyadoo la beddelayo miisaanka hantida iyadoo ku xiran isbahaysiga. Wadajirka:     Marka la eego saddex kayd, A, B, iyo C, aynu dhisno faylalka. Maalgeliyaha wuxuu higsanayaa inuu ogaado inta lacag ah ee loo qoondeynayo labada saami midkood. Kaydka la bixiyay, aan ka soo qaadno in kayd kastaa leeyahay sifooyinka soo socda. Haddii wadarta qaddarka maalgelintu ay tahay $1000, $200 waa kaydka A, $300 ee B, iyo $500 ee C. Marka la eego qaybinta, celceliska soo celinta faylalka faylalka ayaa soo baxaya.   Boqolleyda qoondaynta ayaa sidoo kale loo tixgeliyaa miisaanka profile-ka marka ay go'aamiyaan inta maalgashi lagu galayo hantida.  Qodobka labaad ee muhiimka ah in halkan lagu tixgeliyo waa kala duwanaanshaha faylalka ama Khatarta. Khatarta faylalka ayaa aad u dhib badan in la xisaabiyo maadaama ay tixgalinayso wada jirka hantida kala duwan. faylalka ugu fiican ee hoos yimaada qaabka Markowitz waxaa ku jira hanti leh xiriir xun. Haddii hanti gaar ah hoos u dhacdo, mid kale ayaa kici doona oo ka hortagi doona khasaarihiisa, yaraynta khatarta guud ee faylalka.  Habka kala duwanaanshaha faylalka ayaa noqda   Wadaaggu wuxuu u baahan yahay in loo xisaabiyo lammaane kasta oo hanti ah oo ku jira faylalka. Aynu ka soo qaadno in hantideenu ay leedahay isku-xidhka soo socda.   Anaga oo tixgalinayna qiyamka isku xidhka iyo weecashada heerka sare ah, waxaan xisaabin karnaa isbahaysiyada anagoo adeegsanayna qaacidooyinka soo socda:   Matrixka isku-xidhnaanta ayaa noqda   Adigoo isticmaalaya qiyamka kor lagu xisaabiyay, kala duwanaanshiyaha faylalkayaga ayaa noqda    Xuduud hufan  Tusaalaha kore wuxuu muujinayaa hal suurtagal oo loogu talagalay faylalka maalgashiga. Aragtida Markowitz waxay abuurtaa isku-dhafan badan oo ka mid ah faylalka noocaan ah iyadoo la adeegsanayo qiyamka qoondaynta (miisaanka) kala duwan. Bootfooliyada kala duwan waxay muujinayaan heerar kala duwan oo soo celinta qiimaha khatarta ah (kala duwanaanshaha). Bootfooliyadan kala duwan waxaa lagu sawiray shax la yiraahdo Frontier Efficient.   Qaloocadu waxay ka dhigan tahay khatarta-abaalmarinta khatarta ah ee maalgashadayaasha ay xiiseynayaan wax kasta oo ka sarreeya khadka. Arrin kale oo xiisa leh oo shaxdan ka mid ah ayaa ah khadka qoondaynta Capital (CAL) kaas oo ka socda barta aan khatarta lahayn (Zero Standard-Deviation) oo ka samaysa taangen xagaa ah. Barta taangent-ku waxay leedahay saamiga ugu badan ee abaal-marin-ilaa-khatar waana faylalka ugu wanaagsan ee suurtogalka ah ee maalgashiga.   Qaadashada Furaha  Portfolio-ga maalgashiga waxa uu ka kooban yahay hanti kala duwan sida kaydka iyo curaarta Maalgeliyaha kastaa wuxuu ku bilaabmaa raasumaal maalgashi oo go'an wuxuuna go'aansadaa inta uu ku maalgelinayo hanti kasta. Farsamooyinka sayniska xogta sida Markowitz micnaha-kala duwanaanshaha aragtida waxay caawisaa go'aaminta qoondaynta saamiga ugu wanaagsan si loo dhiso faylalka ugu fiican.  Aragtida ayaa qaabaysa qaab xisaabeed si loo wanaajiyo qoondaynta hantida si loo helo soo celinta ugu badan ee heerka khatarta ah. Waxay falanqaysaa hantida maaliyadeed ee kala duwan waxayna tixgelisaa heerka soo noqoshada iyo arrimaha khatarta ah, marka loo eego isbeddellada taariikheed ee ay leeyihiin. Qiyaasta soo celinta waa qiyaasta inta faa'iido ee hantidu ay dhalin doonto muddo cayiman. Khatarta waxa lagu qiyaasaa iyada oo la isticmaalayo weecanaanta caadiga ah ee qiimaha hantida. Weecsanaanta sare waxay ka dhigan tahay hanti aan isbeddelayn, markaa, khatar sare.  Soo noqoshada iyo qiyamka halista waxaa loo xisaabiyaa isku darka faylalka kala duwan waxaana lagu matalay qalooca soohdinta hufan. Qallooca ayaa ka caawiya maalgashadayaasha inay go'aamiyaan soo-celinta ugu sarreysa ee khatarta ay doorteen.

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Sayniska Xogta ee Wanaajinta Portfolio: Markowitz Micnaha Kala Duwanaanshaha Aragtida

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