Teori ya Soko la Masoko - Uelewa wa soko na mfumo wa amri Ikiwa wewe ni nia ya biashara ya kiufundi na kutumia muda wako wakati wa siku kwenye tovuti yoyote ya vyombo vya habari vya kijamii, ni Twitter, Youtube, Instagram, nk. You are most likely going to meet many other traders who like to express their opinions on the market. “Market is at this level of support. Therefore we are heading higher.” “We are just retraced to this level, signalled by this indicator, so we are heading this way.” Ukweli ni kwamba wafanyabiashara wengi hawana kuelewa kwa nini masoko ambayo wao biashara ni kweli kuhamia. Ingawa RSIs zote za overbought / oversold, msaada na upinzani au wastani wa kuhamia huonekana bure kwenye chati, 99% ya wafanyabiashara hawana ufahamu wa nguvu za mtiririko wa amri. Na hii ni nini mimi kufunika katika makala hii. Hii ni sehemu ya kwanza ya mfululizo wa sehemu tatu. Introduction Kabla ya kuanza, nataka kutaja kitu ambacho kinaweza kuwa dhahiri, lakini bado nadhani ni muhimu. Nadharia ya Soko la Masoko, Profili ya Soko, na Profili ya Kiwango ni dhana maarufu ya biashara; kwa hiyo, huenda huwezi kujifunza mambo mengi mapya ikiwa tayari unajua dhana hizi. Kuandika makala hizi ina lengo la kufanya mwongozo kamili kwa wafanyabiashara wapya, kama dhana hizi ni sasa katika mtandao wote lakini si katika muundo wa pamoja. Ingawa natumaini kwamba baada ya kukamilisha makala hizi, utakuwa tayari kutumia mawazo mara moja, hakuna kitu bora kuliko kujifunza moja kwa moja kutoka chanzo. Katika kesi hii, chanzo ni J. Peter Steidlmayer na Jim Dalton. Ninapendekeza kusoma vitabu vyafuatayo: 
 
 
 
 
 Steidlmayer juu ya masoko: Biashara na Profile ya Soko, Toleo la 2 Markets in Profile: Profiting from the Auction Process Mawazo juu ya masoko: Biashara ya nguvu na Maelezo ya Soko, Toleo la Upya CBOT Mwongozo wa Utafiti wa Sehemu sita kwa Profili ya Soko There are some other youtube channels or free/paid resources you can find  ya hapa. Ikiwa una nia ya kujifunza jinsi ninavyotumia dhana hizi katika biashara yangu ya kila siku, unaweza kuangalia . Biashara ya Blueprint Mfumo wa maombi na kwa nini masoko yanabadilika Before going into the Auction Market Theory, I feel like it is important to understand market movements’ key fundamentals. As you can see in the image above you, this is an example of trading DOM. DOM hii, hasa, inaonyesha kina cha soko kwa futures za kudumu za Bitcoin kwenye Bitmex. Katika biashara, kuna aina mbili tu ya amri. 
 
 
 Maagizo ya mipaka Maagizo ya soko Kufungua maagizo na kuacha maagizo The advertisement is placed on the DOM and is executed against the market orders. These are often called the heavier hand in the market as large players can’t afford to use market order because they would often occur more considerable slippage. Wao hutumia aina mbalimbali za juu za utaratibu kama vile icebergs ili kuficha nia zao na kuepuka kuingia mbele. If you are putting a limit order to the order book, you are making liquidity. Kwa sababu amri ya kikomo ni mkono mkubwa zaidi, ni wale ambao kuzuia masoko katika mazingira ya mwelekeo kutoka kuongezeka au kuanguka kama washiriki wa soko wenye ujasiri (amri za soko) mara nyingi hupiga ukuta wa kikomo na kuingizwa. Market Orders Maagizo ya soko yanatumika "katika soko". Wao huonyesha shughuli za mwisho juu ya bidhaa na kutoa, inayojulikana kama delta. Wao ni kutekelezwa dhidi ya amri ya kikomo. Market orders are required for the market to move. Wakati wowote maagizo ya soko yanapungua idadi au mipaka ya maagizo katika hatua ya bei iliyotolewa, bei huongezeka au kuanguka. Kama wewe kuchukua fedha kutoka kitabu cha amri, wewe ni kuchukua fedha kila wakati unatumia utaratibu wa soko. Ingawa makampuni mengi ya aina tofauti ya amri, hizi bado ni tu soko au amri ya kikomo. These are very simple yet important concepts to understand. Kama wewe kuwa na high number of resting orders but not many traders executing them, you have a low volatility environment. These are often cases of more liquid products such as Euro Stoxx 50, German 10-yr Bund, or treasuries. kinyume chake itakuwa high volume with low liquidity. In these markets, aggressive participants enter the market with a not strong counterparty at the order book, causing high volatile movements. This is the case for markets such as Dax, Gold, YM, or Bitcoin. Pia kuna zana nyingine ambazo zinaonyesha mtiririko wa amri, kama vile Times na Mauzo au Footprint, ambayo nimefunika katika . Makala hii Nini ni Teori ya Soko la Masoko? J. Peter Steidlmayer alianzisha nadharia ya soko la mauzo. Jim Dalton alikuwa mmoja wa kwanza kutambua thamani ya mawazo ya Steidlemeyer na alitoa mchango wao katika kitabu chake Mind Over Markets. Auction market theory breaks down the market’s primary purpose and how market participants interact to fulfil this purpose. Wazo kuu ni kwamba masoko ya kifedha hayana tofauti na masoko mengine yoyote ambapo wateja na wauzaji wanakutana kila siku. Kuna mambo mawili makubwa ya kufanikiwa. 
 
 
 Facilitate trade in the two-way auction process Seek fair value of the asset Auction market theory translates this process through supply and demand dynamics and price discovery. Maonyesho ya siku mbili inamaanisha kwamba mwisho wa maonyesho ya "up" unafuata mwanzo wa maonyesho ya "down" na kinyume chake. Mchakato huu unawakilishwa na zana kama vile Masoko au Profile ya Volume. These bell-shaped curves represent 68% as 1 standard deviation from the mean. Hii ndio tunajulikana kama eneo la thamani. A practical example of Auction Market Theory in the financial markets Ikiwa tunazingatia mfano wa uwezekano katika soko la hisa, hebu tuchukue kwamba hisa moja ya hisa za Samsung zinafanya biashara kwa $ 50. Simu mpya ya Samsung inakuja, na ni ya kutisha; bateria haifanyi kazi, joto la juu, nk. Kwa sababu ya tukio hili, hisa ya Samsung huanza kupungua kwa thamani yake mpaka inapata wateja wapya kwa, hebu kusema, $ 30 kwa bei ya hisa. Hapa ndipo eneo jipya la thamani linaloundwa. After some time, phones get repaired, and the price of the stock starts to rise again. Where is the market likely to stop? Previous value area around $50. Hiyo ni nini kila soko hufanya kama washiriki wa soko kujadili bei kati ya thamani za usawa na zisizo na usawa. Auction Market Theory defines an area where 68% of the volume has traded as a Value Area. Inside Value area is also a point of control; this is the level where the market traded most volume or spent the most time. 
 
 
 A market profile represents the Value area and point of control based on time. Profili ya ukubwa inaonyesha eneo la thamani na pointi ya udhibiti kulingana na ukubwa. This advertising mechanism and price always seeking value can be represented in the image below. Key components of Auction Market Theory There are three key components of AMT. 
 
 
 
  – Advertise opportunity in the market Price Muda - Utawala wa bei ya fursa Kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango cha kiwango. To fully understand things, we have to understand the context of a given market as there are two types of auction. Balance In a balanced market, buyers and sellers agree on prices, and they are willing to buy/sell for current prices. It is because they perceive those prices as fair value. Soko la usawa kawaida huwakilishwa na volatility ya chini. Bei bado ni sawa, na masoko yanaendelea. Shukrani kwa Profili ya Soko au Kiwango, tunaweza kwa urahisi kutambua thamani ya haki. thamani ya haki inaonekana kama mwongozo wa gaussian katika sura ya bell, ambayo tayari nimewaonyesha kwenye picha hapo juu. Ikiwa soko litakuwa katika usawa daima, litakuwa tu kuanguka karibu na thamani ya haki, ambayo tunajua si mada ya kawaida katika masoko ya kifedha. Pamoja na habari mpya zinazoingia kwenye soko, hizi zinaweza kuwa viongozi wa msingi au wa kiufundi. Masoko huacha thamani ya haki na kuhamia mazingira ya pili. Imbalance Ukosefu wa usawa ni kinyume kabisa na usawa. Kuna tofauti kuhusu thamani ya haki. One side of market participants is more aggressive, which causes the market to trend. Masoko kwa ujumla huenda tu kuhusu 20% ya wakati na kiwango cha 80%. Kanuni ya jumla ni kwamba mara moja soko ni ndani ya thamani, itakuwa zaidi uwezekano wa kukaa katika usawa na kuchunguza ndani ya kiwango cha thamani. But if the market is an imbalance, it will often drift higher/lower until it stops, usually inside a previous value area. Kazi ya kuanzisha na kujibu Although the market spends 80% of the time in fair value, it often tries to leave it, when this happens there are two possible scenarios. There are two types of activity Steidlmayer called: 
 
 
 Responsive Mwanzo wa Kazi ya responsive Responsive activity is the expected behaviour. When the market breaks below the value, buying is expected. When the market breaks above the value, selling is expected. For example, if the market opens above the previous day value area, we can expect that prices are too high compared to the previous day’s fair value. Kwa hiyo, kurudi kwa thamani ya siku iliyopita inatarajiwa. Ikiwa soko hufungua chini ya eneo la thamani la siku iliyopita, ni nafuu sana, na tunaweza kutarajia shughuli ya kujibu kununua tena kwa thamani. Responsive activity is often seen in quick spikes and stops runs where the market reaches a certain level of liquidity and returns to the fair value. Initiating activity Initiating activity is unexpected. When the market breaks below the value, selling is unexpected. When the market breaks above the value, buying is unexpected. These moves only occur when the environment shifts as a perception of the fair value changes. Tunaweza kutambua haya kama kushuka kwa bei kutoka kwa thamani na kukubalika. Acceptance and Failed Auction Kazi ya awali na kujibu ni zaidi ya nadharia, lakini kwa bahati nzuri tunaweza kuamua kwa haraka kama bei mpya zinakubaliwa au si. kukubalika Wakati bei inapiga thamani halisi juu ya kiasi kikubwa na hatua ya bei ya kuwahakikishia, tunaweza kutarajia bei mpya zitakubaliwa juu au chini ya thamani halisi. These are usually the support/resistance flips for more price action traders with enough time and space before the retest. Hii inatuambia washiriki wa soko walikubaliana juu ya bei mpya, na tunaweza kutarajia kuendelea mara moja eneo la thamani la zamani linajaribu. Failed Auction The failed auction occurs when prices come outside of the value and do not gain acceptance. There is no increase in volume on the breakout, and from a price action point of view, we can see long wick and quick returns back to the point of breakout. These are often the V-shape reversals to the levels. Kanuni Tano za Sanaa ya Soko la Masoko Although Auction Market Theory is not a trading strategy, some rules can be used in your day-to-day trading. Ninaweka haya katika kila siku yangu na kutumia mifano tofauti ya hatua ya bei na tabia ya mtiririko wa amri ili kutekeleza biashara zangu. If you are interested to learn these patterns, you can check out my  . Biashara ya Blueprint 
 
 
 
 
 
 Ikiwa bei inakubali katika eneo la usawa, ni uwezekano wa kurudi upande mwingine. Price inside a balance is expected to reject the edges and is choppier. Once price accepts outside the balance, is likely to become imbalanced and seek new value – often POC of older balance area. Ikiwa bei inajibu kwa nguvu kutoka kwa POC, inaweza kuvunja sheria ya 1. Ikiwa muda / kiwango cha kujenga kwenye mipaka ya usawa, bei inaweza kuharibu. Kwa muhtasari Nadharia ya soko la ununuzi ilikuwa mojawapo ya pointi muhimu zaidi katika biashara yangu kwa sababu ilitoa mwanga mpya juu ya kuelewa nguvu za soko na tabia. Many traders only chase different price action patterns or technical indicators. See where fair value is and determine if markets accept or reject new prices is much more important than anything else.

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