Gutangira Byoroshye: Ibyiza Byingirakamaro Byibanze Byibanze mu Kwiga Imashini

Gutangiza umushinga mushya wo kwiga imashini bizana umuvuduko mwinshi, kandi birashobora kuba byoroshye gusimbuka neza kugera kumpera yimbitse. Hano haribintu byinshi bigezweho bigezweho cyangwa bigoye algorithms ushobora kuba warasomye. Basezeranya ibisubizo bitangaje, kandi birinda ibishuko byo kugerageza nabo ako kanya bat ni umurimo utoroshye.

Rwiyemezamirimo wese ugezweho ashishikajwe no kugerageza tekiniki zigezweho no kwerekana imishinga ihanitse (kandi yatsinze) kubaturage. Nyamara, ishyaka, nubwo ari ryiza, rimwe na rimwe rishobora gufata igihe cyingenzi mugihe uhuza neza hyperparameter hanyuma ugahura ningorabahizi zo gushyira mubikorwa bigoye.

Muri iki gikorwa, hari ikibazo kimwe cyingenzi kigomba kwibazwa: Mubyukuri twapima dute imikorere yicyitegererezo cyacu?

Kumenya niba ibintu bigoye byurugero rwacu bifite ishingiro cyangwa niba imikorere iruta iyindi birashobora kugorana. Ibi bibaho mugihe nta ngingo yoroshye yerekana. Hano, kugira icyitegererezo cyibanze biba ngombwa cyane. Ibyingenzi bitanga iyo ngingo yingenzi - biroroshye, byihuse kubaka, kandi birasobanurwa. Igitangaje, akenshi icyitegererezo cyibanze, gishobora gufata 10% gusa yimbaraga zose ziterambere, birashobora kugera kuri 90% byimikorere yifuzwa, bitanga inzira nziza cyane kubisubizo bifatika.

Igitekerezo cyo gutangira cyoroshye ntabwo ari uburyo bworoshye kubatangiye - ni imyitozo yibanze igumaho mubyiciro byose byumwuga wubumenyi. Nuburyo bwibanze kandi butwibutsa cyane guhuza icyifuzo cyacu cyo kugorana hamwe nibikorwa bifatika, byoroshye kubyumva, kandi birashobora gucungwa.

Gusobanukirwa Icyitegererezo Cyibanze

Icyitegererezo cyibanze nuburyo bwibanze bukoreshwa mugukemura ikibazo. Mubisanzwe, izi moderi zirimo gusubira inyuma kumurongo kubisubizo bikomeza cyangwa gusubira inyuma kubisubizo bitandukanye. Kurugero, gusubira inyuma kumurongo bishobora guhanura ibyagarutsweho hashingiwe kumibare yibiciro byamateka, mugihe gusubira inyuma bishobora gushyira abasaba inguzanyo nkibyago byinshi cyangwa bike.

Ubu buryo butandukanye nuburyo bugoye nkurusobe rwimitsi cyangwa uburyo bwa ansemble, nubwo, nubwo bukomeye, bushobora gutuma gufata ikibazo bigorana kandi bikongerera igihe gikenewe mugutezimbere bitewe nuburyo bugoye hamwe nubutunzi bukomeye bwo kubara.

Inyungu zo Gutangirana na Model Baseline

Ibipimo

Ibipimo nintambwe yingenzi cyane yintangiriro mugutezimbere icyitegererezo cyose ML. Iyo ushyizeho icyitegererezo cyibanze, ushyiraho ibipimo ngenderwaho byingenzi byerekana ko moderi zose ziza nyuma (zisanzwe zigoye) zigomba kurenga kugirango zemeze ibintu bigoye no gukoresha umutungo. Iyi nzira ntabwo ari igenzura rikomeye gusa ahubwo inashingira kubyo witeze kandi iguhe igipimo kigaragara cyiterambere.

Ubu buryo bwo kugena ibipimo byerekana neza ko kunoza imiterere igoye bifite ishingiro kandi bizavamo iterambere nyaryo, byose mugihe inzira yiterambere ihujwe nibisubizo bifatika.

Ikiguzi-Cyiza

Gukurikiza uburyo buhendutse muri ML ni ngombwa. Cyane cyane iyo uhisemo intego yo guhuza inzira zawe namahame ashyira mugaciro mugihe ugabanya imyanda nkibyingenzi. Iyo utangiye hamwe nicyitegererezo cyibanze, ugabanya ibikoresho nigihe gikenewe mugutezimbere kwambere no kugerageza. Ibi bivuze prototyping yihuse - kandi ibyo nibyingenzi mubitekerezo byihuse no kunoza itera.

Hamwe nurufatiro, ibintu byose wongeyeho birashobora gusuzumwa neza.

Mugushimangira ikiguzi-cyiza, uremeza ko umutungo ukoreshwa neza kandi ukagera kubirenze kuzamura tekinike. Na none, itanga ibisubizo bifatika, byongerewe agaciro bifite ishingiro muburyo bwo kunoza imikorere no kugabura umutungo. Ubu buryo, buri shoramari muburyo bugoye biremewe, bigira uruhare mumigambi rusange yumushinga nta mafaranga atagereranijwe.

Gukorera mu mucyo no gusobanura

Mu nzego nkimari aho ibyemezo bigomba kubahiriza amahame akomeye agenga amategeko, gukorera mu mucyo ntabwo ari inyungu zubucuruzi gusa. Nuburyo bufatika bufasha cyane mugikorwa cyamabwiriza yinama kandi byoroshya itumanaho ryoroshye nabafatanyabikorwa bashobora kuba badafite ubumenyi bwimbitse (bwimbitse).

Niba icyemezo gishingiye ku iteganyagihe rya SMA cyabajijwe, gukorera mu mucyo byerekana uburyo bwihuse kandi bworoshye bwo gusobanura logique inyuma yakazi kayo. Ibi birashobora gufasha hamwe no kugenzura no kugenzura no kunoza ikizere no kwemerwa mubakoresha nabafata ibyemezo. Byongeye kandi, uko icyitegererezo cyiyongera, urugero nko kwimuka kuri algorithms zigoye nka moderi ya ARIMA cyangwa VAR kubintu byinshi byahanuwe, ibisobanuro byibanze bya SMA bihinduka igipimo cyerekana urwego rwibisobanuro ukeneye kwerekana.

Ukoresheje ibyasubiwemo nkibintu byingenzi bifite amanota cyangwa SHAP indangagaciro zifatanije nuburyo bugoye, iterambere ryibindi bikorwa byose byerekana bigumaho. Ibi bifasha intego yuburyo bwumutekano kugirango utajugunywa kubintu byinshi bigezweho. Ingingo yuburyo bworoshye bwibanze ni uguhora dushyira mubikorwa imiterere rusange nakamaro bizakomeza nubwo urwego rugoye rwiyongera. Ibi byemeza ingingo zo kubahiriza no gutumanaho bizagira akamaro.

Gucunga ibyago

Gucunga ibyago nubundi buryo bwingenzi bwo guteza imbere imashini yiga imashini, cyane cyane mubice nkimari aho iteganyagihe ryizewe kandi ryizewe rigira ingaruka kumyanzuro. Kugira icyitegererezo cyibanze ni ingamba zikomeye zo gucunga izo ngaruka.

Ibice byibanze bitanga intangiriro yumvikana yo gutangira, igufasha buhoro buhoro (kandi mumutekano) kongeramo ibyongeweho muburyo bugoye.

Byongeye kandi, gukoresha icyitegererezo cyibanze bigabanya ibyago byo gukabya. Numutego usanzwe muburyo bwo kwerekana imari. Kurenza urugero bibaho mugihe icyitegererezo gihujwe neza namakuru yamateka kandi kigafata urusaku aho kuba icyitegererezo. Kubera iyo mpamvu, urashobora kubona ibyahanuwe kandi ukabona ingamba zubucuruzi zizewe nkigisubizo. Icyitegererezo cyoroheje gifite ibipimo bike ntabwo gikunze guhura niki kibazo, cyemeza ko ubuhanuzi butanga bukoreshwa mubisanzwe bitagaragara.

Kwiyongera kugoye nkuko SMA itera imbere kuri moderi ntoya igenda igereranya nka ARIMA na VAR bigenda birushaho kuba ingorabahizi, imiterere yoroshye ya SMA irashobora kudufasha gusuzuma gahunda ya buri kintu cyongeweho. Iterambere ryintambwe muburyo bugoye rifasha gukomeza kugenzura imikorere yicyitegererezo, kureba neza ko buri cyiciro cyinyongera gitanga inyungu igaragara kandi ntikizana ingaruka zitemewe.

Ubu buryo butunganijwe bwo kwiyongera kwicyitegererezo gifasha mugusobanukirwa uburyo impinduka zicyitegererezo zigira ingaruka kumyitwarire no kwizerwa. Iremeza kandi ko ingaruka zihora zicungwa neza. Iyo utangiriye kumurongo woroheje kandi ukagenzura witonze buri cyiciro cyiterambere, uremeza ko uburyo bwo guhanura buguma bukomeye kandi butekanye, bushyigikira ibyemezo byimari.

Ibitekerezo Byingenzi Mugihe Gushyira mubikorwa Icyitegererezo

Guhitamo icyitegererezo cyibanze gikwiye, ugomba kumva ikibazo cyubucuruzi nibiranga amakuru. Kurugero, ibihe-byateganijwe kumasoko yimari birashobora gutangirana na moderi ya ARIMA nkibanze kugirango ifate imbaraga zigihe gito muburyo bworoshye. Ubwiza bwamakuru no gutunganya mbere nabyo bigira uruhare runini; niyo moderi yoroshye irashobora gukora nabi niba igaburiwe amakuru adahagije cyangwa adatunganijwe neza.

Icyanyuma, kumenya igihe cyo kuva kumurongo wibanze ukagera kubintu bigoye cyane ni ngombwa. Iki cyemezo kigomba kuyoborwa no kugerageza no kwemeza kwiyongera, bijyanye nuburyo bwa Agile.

Kurangiza

Gutangira imashini yiga imashini mugutangiza icyitegererezo cyibanze ntabwo arintambwe yambere. Ni ingamba. Ingamba zihuza nuburyo bwa Agile buteza imbere imikorere, gukora neza, no guhuza n'imihindagurikire. Kwegera umushinga wawe murubu buryo birashobora kuzamura cyane umusaruro wumushinga ukemeza ko buri kwiyongera mubibazo bifite ishingiro kandi byongeweho agaciro kagaragara. Kwakira ubworoherane nikintu gikomeye. Nuburyo bukomeye cyane mubikorwa nkimari aho ibyemezo bigomba kwihuta.