Can Bitcoin Put an End to Forever War?

Every now and then, I stumble upon posts such as these here and there:

And, you know what? I just look the other way. Why? Because as a veteran I’m “emotionally compromised” (Star Trek), and more importantly:

Without thoroughly analyzing, this is nothing more than wishful thinking.

Firstly, you’d have more success convincing people that the Earth is flat than convincing them that it’s possible to completely eliminate fiat.

“The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommends against adopting cryptocurrency as a main national currency in its current state due to price volatility. Additionally, the organization feels that the risks of macro-financial stability and lack of consumer protections should be addressed.”

But, at the same time:

“The IMF does acknowledge that adoption is most likely to occur more rapidly in countries where cryptocurrency risks are an improvement on the financial system in place. For example, many Ukrainians turned to cryptocurrency after fleeing the Russian invasion in 2022. Without cryptocurrency, many might not have had the money to survive.” ("Global Financial Stability Report, Covid-19, Crypto, and Climate: Navigating Challenging Transitions," Page 52)

Look, I don’t like playing this blame game at all. What? Crypto ain’t perfect, but neither are you, my dear fiat. That’s why this particular Greek mythology analogy comes in handy to counterbalance the previous argument.

If volatility is the Achilles’ heel of Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency then the same weakness “of the fiat money system lies in its dependence on the demand for money. History demonstrates that the demand for money remains relatively steady when there is a high level of trust in the currency, meaning people are not worried that the purchasing power of their money will decline or be destroyed. Given this insight, it’s clear how states and their central banks seek to handle the fiat money system in their favor. Their primary strategy involves creating illusions and deceiving the populace to maintain control and influence. For instance, people are often fed the narrative that inflation of 2 percent equates to “stable money”—a claim that is, of course, inherently false. In reality, a 2-percent inflation rate destroys the purchasing power of money by 2 percent every year.”

Lack of trust = Fiat is past

Demand for money is now demand for crypto:

“The global user base of cryptocurrencies increased by nearly 190 percent between 2018 and 2020, only to accelerate further in 2022. The projected revenue in the Cryptocurrencies market for Worldwide is estimated to reach US$56.7bn in 2024.” (Source: Statista)

No more money for you warmonger honey!

Be(A)ware Bitcoin Friends - Every Stick Has Two Ends

Buy Bitcoin! Defund the wars! Unfortunately, it’s not that simple.

“Ukraine’s government bought weapons, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs, better known as drones) and digital rifle scopes, besides non-lethal tools, with some of the $60 million in crypto donated after Russia invaded the European nation earlier this year, an official revealed in a new breakdown of expenditures.”

"We (the Digital Ministry) converted crypto and sen[t] it to our Defence Ministry. They decided that they needed something (lethal weapons). We are at war and we can defend ourselves with every means possible,” Deputy Minister Alex Bornyakov responded when asked about the earlier statement that they would only buy non-lethal weapons through crypto donations.

It’d be naive to think that the other side wouldn’t do the same by every means possible, also.

“Russia’s largest maker of small arms, Kalashnikov Concern, needed electrical parts for drones that have been among the most effective weapons against Ukrainian armor. The smuggler, Andrey Zverev, took the late 2022 order to a Hong Kong electronics distributor. The U.S. was trying to cut off such deals, and even sanctions-wary Chinese banks were blocking payments from Russia. The solution: Zverev used tether, the cryptocurrency, to relay millions of dollars of funds from Kalashnikov to its supplier.”

“We will deliver everything you need to exterminate each other,” he wrote in a Telegram chat. Payment was “ideally with crypto, of course.”

The Bitcoin Standard is the solution for forever wars. But, how far away is it in the future? In the meantime, we still have our deeply flawed human nature to deal with.

“With no physical properties, this decentralized digital money isn't susceptible to state control, and its users don't need permission to spend their holdings. It's also "the hardest money ever invented," Ammous writes, since Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million units is coded into the software. Previously it "proved impossible to come up with a form of money of which more cannot be created," which makes bitcoin the "first example of absolute scarcity." When the late economist Julian Simon observed that human time is the only truly limited resource, Ammous has quipped, he was only correct because Bitcoin hadn't yet been invented.”

Now, Bitcoin isn’t only being invented, but also widely and rapidly accepted. However, we can’t say that forever war would be ended and prevented.