I-White House yasungula i- "Crypto Week", inkxaso yokuvumela ukutshatyalaliswa kwe-cryptocurrencies kunye neengxaki ze-digital. I-industry ibandakanya iintlawulo ezintathu ezahlukileyo, i-"CLARITY Act" [1]*, i-"GENIUS Act"[2]*, kunye ne-"Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act"[3] ukuba ifumaneke ngexesha elidlulileyo kwaye ibandakanya imiphumo emihle kwi-sektor. I-language kunye ne-framing yeentlawulo zibonakalisa ngokubanzi: i-stablecoins ziyafumaneka kwaye kufuneka ithathwe, nangona i-CBDCs (i-Central Bank Digital Currencies) ezijoliswe yi-Fed (i-Federal Reserve) Umgangatho we-United States, okanye ngokukhawuleza umongameli we-Trump kunye namadokhumenti zayo, i-clarely and the opposite of what is happening in the European Union. Ukukhangisa iingxaki ze-American kunye ne-European kunye nokukwazi ukuvelisa i-dilemma ye-ECB (i-European Central Bank). Ngaphezu US Policy Flip — From Scrutiny to Support? I-US Policy Flip - Ukusuka kwi-Scrutiny ukuya ku-Support? Phantsi kommiselo weBiden kunye neChairman yeSEC Gary Gensler, i-cryptocurrencies kunye ne-stablecoins zilungiswa. I-regulators zithintela ukuba zithintela i-US Dollar njengoko ingasetyenziswa njengendlela yokukhokha ngaphandle kokufikelela kwi-US Dollar eyenziwa yi-Fed. I-Fed iyaziwa ngokucacileyo: i-Fed iya kuba kwimpembelelo yayo yobugcisa njengoko abantu bangathintela ngokusebenzisa i-"imali ye-private". Phantsi kommiselo yeTrump, umzekelo malunga ne-cryptocurrencies kunye ne-stablecoins ngokufanelekileyo. Zibonwa ngokufanelekileyo kwaye njengengqungquthela elitsha kunye nophuhliso lwezimboni apho i-USA ingathanda ngokuphakeme njengomgangatho. Ixesha lokugqibela le mqengquthela lwezigquthela ayikwazanga kakhulu. Kwakhona, eYurophu, i-MiCA [4] *, i-regulatory yokuqala ye-cryptocurrencies, iye lithunyelwe kwaye zithunyelwe kakhulu iinkampani kwi-sector. Ngaphandle kokufakwa kwe-Howey ye-cryptos (i-Ripple XRP), i-US yaba "I-Wild West" ngoko ke, ngoko ke, bafumane iinkampani ze-cryptos ezihambelana eYurophu kwi-United States ezihambelana ne-regulatory. I-Status ye-Status ye-Status ye-Status ye-Status ye-Status ye-Status ye-Status ye-Status ye-Status. Stablecoins — Now a Top Buyer of US Debt Stablecoins - ngoku umthengisi ophezulu we-US Debt I-stablecoins e-US, njenge-USDC ye-Circle, ibonelela i-1 peg yayo ngexesha elide ngexesha le-1:1 ye-US Dollars ... okanye i-near-cash equivalents. Ngokutsho, le-near-cash equivalents ziquka kwi-finance industry, njenge-US Treasury Debt and Repurchase Agreements. I-avantage yi-payment yi-1 peg, kwaye nangona kunjalo i-liquidity kakhulu. I-Circle inokukwazi ukuguqula i-USDC kwi-US Dollars kwimizuzu embalwa. I-Most of the Circle's reserves yi-Treasuries, njengoko zithintela, zithintela i-return, kwaye zithintela i-stable I-Circle yi-example emangalisayo njengoko zibonakalayo malunga ne-reserve yayo. Zibonakalisa i-$62.7 billion USDC kwi-circuit kunye ne-reserve ebandakanya i-$9.2 billion cash kwiibhanki ze-reserve kunye ne-$53.7 billion kwi-Circle Reserve Fund ngexesha leMay 2025 [7]. Le i-reserve fund ibonelela i-62.02% ye-US Treasury Repurchase Agreements kunye ne-27.98% ye-US Treasury Debt [8]. I-Circle yinkampani yesibini elikhulu ye-stablecoin emva kwe-Tether, ebonakalisa i-market capitalization kwi-USDT yayo ngexesha le-160 billion ngoJulayi 2025. I-Tether ibekwe ekugqibeleni, okanye ngexesha elinye, ibekwe ngokucacileyo malunga ne-reserve yayo. Nangona kunjalo, kuxhomekeke, i-Circle kunye ne-Tether ziyi-18 yeengqongqo ezininzi ze-US debt, emva kweKorea yeKorea kwaye phambi kweJalimane [9]. Kwi-2024, i-Tether yaba kwakhona umthengi we-7 kakhulu we-US Treasuries emva kwe-UK kunye ne-Singapore [9]. Zonke iinkampani zilungiselela iingcebiso ezininzi ngeemveliso ye-Circle: $155 million i-Circle kunye ne-$13 billion ye-Tether [10]. Stablecoins and US debt — a Win-Win I-Stablecoins kunye ne-US Debt - i-win-win Ukubuyekezwa, nge-circle kunye ne-Tether ziyafumaneka ubungakanani, zihlanganisa inqaku elikhulu kwimarike ye-treasury. Izixhobo ze-treasury ziyafumanisa i-US National Debt, ebonakalisa i-liquidity kunye ne-stability ye-Treasury Market. I-stablecoin i-regulation, njenge-"GENIUS Act" [2], ingathengisa ukuba iinkampani ezimbini ziyafumaneka ngokupheleleyo, ukunciphisa nayiphi na ingxaki kwimarike ye-treasury, kwaye ibonise imfuno elandelayo kwiminyaka elandelayo. Oku, ngoko ke, ibonise iinkampani ezininzi ukuvelisa kwaye ibonelela ukuba iimveliso ze-stablecoins zangaphantsi. I-dominance ye-US dollar kunye ne-status yayo njenge-reserve yokuqala iya kubhalwe ngoko. Iimakethi zeDolarized The Other Side of the (Stable)Coin The Other Side of the (Stable) Coin Nangona kunjalo, i-Circle kunye ne-Tether iye yenza i-regulation ngaphezulu kwexesha elide. Baya kubangeli i-risk ye-systemic njengoko zihlanganisa inani elikhulu le-US Treasury debt. Umzekelo weengxaki ze-finance okanye ukuphazamiseka kwe-confidence ingaba kuholele kwi-sell-off ngokukhawuleza, enokuthintela emakethe ye-treasury. Kwiimeko se-Tether, iinkcubeko ezininzi kunokufumana imini njengoko zithintela malunga ne-composition ye-reserve yayo, kodwa oku ayinxalenye kwinkcubeko le nqaku. I-monetary policy yi-factor ye-risk ye-second and the more important. Oku ndingathanda ukuba ingxaki yokuqala malunga ne-stablecoins phantsi kommiselo we-Biden yaye ngoko i-scrutinized kakhulu. Ukusetyenziswa kwe-stablecoins kunokukhawuleza iimveliso ezininzi kunye ne-efficiency ye-monetary policies ezisisombululwa yi-Fed. FED versus Trump — CBDC versus stablecoin Fed vs Trump - CBDC vs stablecoin I-Fed ibanga ukuba iinkqubo ze-transmission ye-economic policies ziyafumaneka ngenxa yokusetyenziswa kwe-stablecoins. Ngenxa yokuba akukho ukulawula i-stablecoins, kunokuba akukho ukulawula i-leavers ze-policy. Ukuba inani elikhulu le-transactions okanye iingcebiso ziyafumaneka kwi-stablecoins, iinkqubo ezihlangeneyo apho i-Fed inqakraza umsebenzi yamazwe. Zonke iinkcukacha zokusetyenziswa kwe-stablecoins kunye nokusetyenziswa kwe-monetary ziya kubaluleke kakhulu. Ixabiso kwi-cbdc, i-dollar ye-blockchain, iya kukunciphisa inani le-money eyenza iibhanki. Oku kunokuba kuneziphumo ez But what about Europe? Yintoni iYurophu? IYurophu, kunjalo, ibekwe kwisithuba esahlukileyo kune-United States. I-doctrine ayikwazi ukuba engaphezulu kwi-Trump, ngoko ke ngoko kunokuba i-“regulation first, then loosen the screws to support innovation”-approach, ukuba ufuna. Oku kunzima kakhulu, kodwa kulula kakhulu, njengoko singazi ukusuka kwindawo ye-Fed. MiCA regulation — Stablecoins are okay, if regulated I-MiCA Regulation - I-stablecoins iyona, ukuba ilawulwa I-MiCA ibandakanya inkxaso ye-stablecoins kwaye ibonise iindidi ezimbini ezahlukeneyo. I-Electronic Money Tokens [4]: I-EMT yi-crypto-assets eyenza ukugcina i-value efanelekileyo ngokubhalisa i-value ye-unique. I-activity yayo yokuqala yi-payments, kwaye i-emitter ye-EMT kufuneka uze ufumane i-Electronic Money Institution (EMI) okanye i-Credit Institution e-EU. Oku kubalulekile ukuba ziyafumaneka kwiimveliso ze-financial kunye neengxaki ze-regulatory. Oku kubandakanya, ngokuqinisekileyo, ukugcina i-1:1-reserve ye-stablecoins ze-assets ezininzi ze-liquid kunye ne-low-risk. Ukongezelela, i-asset reserve kufuneka ilawulwe ngexesha elide ngexesha le-6. Iimpawu ze-Asset-Referenced Tokens [4]: I-ARTs ziquka i-crypto-assets eyenza ukugcina i-value ebonakalayo ngokufaka i-currencies ezininzi eziqhelekileyo, okanye i-commodities eyodwa okanye ezininzi, okanye i-cryptocurrencies ezininzi, okanye i-cart of all of them. I-ARTs i-emitents kufuneka ifunyenwe, ifunyenwe yi-regulatory authorities, kwaye ibekwe kwi-EU. I-ARTs i-emitents kufuneka ukunika i-reserve efanelekileyo ukunceda i-stablecoin. Ukusetyenziswa kwe-Circle kwimarike yaseYurophu ngokufanelekileyo kwi-MiCA, ngaphandle kwe-Tether, owavela kwimarike yaseYurophu ngenxa yokufuneka ukuxhaswa kunye nokufuneka ukuba "ukukhusela kwiimarike ezininzi" [11]. Circle‘s Near-Monopoly in Europe — so EURC or USDC? I-Circle's Near-Monopoly eYurophu - ngoko i-EURC okanye i-USDC? Ukuphendula okunciphisa: USDC. I-domination ye-US dollar kwimveliso ye-cryptocurrency iye yatholakala kakhulu i-Europeans ziquka i-USDC. I-stablecoin ye-Circle ye-euro-pegged, ebizwa ngokuba yi-EURC, ine-capitalization yentengiso malunga ne-$200 million [12]. Ukubeka oku kwi-perspective - oku kuthetha ukuba i-capitalization yentengiso ye-USDC iye ngaphezu kwe-290 amaxesha engaphezu kwe-capitalization yentengiso ye-EURC. Kodwa njani? Okokuqala, kwaye ingcaciso elula yinto yokuqala i-mover advantage ye-US dollar-denominated stablecoins. I-USDT kunye ne-USDC ezidlulileyo ziye ziye ziye ziye ziye ziye ziye ziye ziye ziye zithunyelwe kwimveliso ye-cryptocurrency, okuholela kwi-dollarization ye-digital ye-industry. Ngenxa yokusetyenziswa kwayo ngokubanzi njengengxaki zeempahla ezininzi kunye ne-market capitalization yayo enkulu, zithunyelwa kwi-liquidity engaphezulu kunye ne-deep market. Okunye, eYurophu iye yandisa i-CBDCs ngokufanelekileyo kunokuba i-stablecoins. The Euro-CBDC — a costly gamble I-Euro-CBDC – umnxeba omncinci I-ECB yasungula inkqubo yayo ye-Euro-CBDC ngo-Oktobha 2020. Zifumaneke inkqubo epheleleyo ezisuka kwiifasa zokuqala zophando ukuya kwiifashi zokusebenza zokusebenza. Nangona iinkcukacha ezininzi ziye zithunyelwe, kunokuthi i-collaboration kunye neebhanki ezininzi ze-euro ngaphandle kwindawo ye-euro. Iinkcukacha ze-non-official zithunyelwe i-budget kwi-1.7 billion euro. Izixhobo ye-CBDC ibonakalisa nangokulula: Akukho ukuphazamiseka kwindlela yokukhokha kwi-stablecoins. Ngoko ke, i-ECB ibonakalisa kakhulu kwi-Fed, apho imali kwi-blockchains zibonakalisa njengoko ezintsha kwaye The dilemma: US stablecoin versus Euro-CBDC I-Dilemma: US i-stablecoin vs Euro-CBDC Ukugqibela, i-BCE ibekwe kwizimo ezininzi eYurophu. Emva kwezinto ezininzi, ukuvelisa i-CBDC kunokwenzeka nokugqiba okanye, okungabonakali, ukufumana kodwa akukwazi ukufumana [13][14]. Iimfuno ye-CBDC ziyafumaneka kwi-BCE, njengoko isakhiwo yayo likhambelana ne-Fed. Akukho iibhanki yesizwe akufuneka ukufumana amandla kwi-stablecoin emittensi, kunokukwazi ukunceda izixhobo zayo zebhizinisi, kwaye ukunciphisa ubunzima. Ukuba i-CBDC ibekwe xa i-stablecoins zithabathe kwimarike, i-EU kufuneka isebenze inkqubo yokungaphakathi. I-plan Ukuba oku kutshintshwa kwaye i-stablecoins iyaqhubeka ukwandisa i-parabolic yayo, i-ECB inesibophelela ukuphazamiseka kwimali ye-euro njengomthengisi yokukhokha yayo yokuqala. Imiphumela eyenza i-Fed ingangena i-ECB nangaphezulu. Iingxaki ze-Fed kwiimarike ziya kubandakanyeka ngempumelelo okanye ngempumelelo ngokusebenzisa i-stablecoin emittenti. Kodwa izixhobo ze-ECB ayikho kwimali ye-dollarized ye-digital market. Oku kuthatha i-European digital market ngokugqithiselwe ngokupheleleyo kwaye ingxaki yokulawula ngqo. Akukho kuphela, kodwa i-American market kunye ne-European market zinezimo ezininzi ezininzi kwaye zin Ukongezelela, i-ECB inokufuneka kwimarike yeYurophu kunye nokufumaneka kweYurophu. I-eurozone, ebandayo kwi-20 amazwe, kufuneka iingxaki zophando ezininzi ezininzi ukuze ziya kukufumana iimfuno ze-eurozone ngamazwe. Conclusion Ukucinga Ngoko ke ngoku kuba eYurophu kunye ne-ECB? Okanye i-ECB ibonise zonke iimveliso zayo kwikhosini elinye kwaye ibonisa i-CBDC kwaye ibonise kubathengi zayo ukuze bafumane ubungakanani. Ngokwenza oku, zithintela ukuba i-CBDC iyafumaneka kwaye ibonakaliswe. Okanye i-ECB ibonise ukuthintela i-euro-stablecoins ukuze ziyafumaneke kwi-US-stablecoins eYurophu kwaye kunokuba zithembisa ukufumana i-market share. Nangona kunjalo, le nkqubo yesibini linokufuneka i-ECB ukunceda amandla kunye nezinye izixhobo zayo zebhizinisi, njengoko ukuveliswa kwe-euro-stablecoins iyafumaneka ngexab Ukuqhathanisa i-CBDC kunye nokukhuthaza i-euro stablecoins ngexesha elifanelekileyo, ngenxa yokuba ngokutsho, enye ingxaki uya kubandisa omnye. Oku kunokuba kusenza i-ECB ukunciphisa amandla, ukuba yi-CBDC okanye i-stablecoin. Yintoni i-ECB isebenza ngokugqithisileyo ibekwe kwinkqubo yayo yayo kunye nokuba iya kuxhomekeke kwimiphumo yentlawulo yentlawulo kwi-White House. Kwiimeko, i-stablecoins iye yandisa kakhulu kwiminyaka engaphezu kwenyanga kwaye iye yandiswa kwicandelo ye-private. EYurophu ikhona kwimeko emangalisayo kwaye kufuneka uqhagamshelane ngempumelelo. Okanye bafikelele ukuba i-CBDC iyathembeka ngakumbi, okanye ukunceda i-stablecoins e-euro-denominated. Ixesha elidlulileyo phambi kokuba i-dollarization ye-digital iya kuba engathintela. Appendix/Vocabulary "I-Clarity Act" - I-Digital Asset Market Clarity Act "I-GENIUS Act" - Ukuhambisa kunye nokufunda i-National Innovation ye-US Stablecoins Act I-MiCA - Iimarike ze-Crypto Assets References: [1] Paul Tierno, “I-Crypto Legislation: A Overview of H.R. 3633, the CLARITY Act.” Wabelana: 15 Jul. 2025. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12583 [2] B. [R-T. Sen. Hagerty, “Text – S.394–119th Congress (2025–2026): GENIUS Act of 2025.” Wabelana: 15 Jul. 2025. [Online]. https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/394/text/is [3] I-H.R. 1919, "I-H.R. 1919 - I-Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, i-House of Representatives Committee on Rules." I-H.R. 1919, "I-H.R. 1919 - I-Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, i-House of Representatives Committee on Rules." I-H.R. 1919, "I-H.R. 1919 - I-H.CBDC Surveillance State Act", i-H.R. 1919, "I-H.R. 1919 - I-H.CBDC Surveillance State Act", i-H.R. 1919, "I-H.R. 1919 - I-H.CBDC Surveillance State Act", i-H.R. 1919, i-H.R. https://rules.house.gov/bill/119/hr-1919 [4] I-European Parliament and Council, "I-Regulation (EU) 2023/1114 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 31 May 2023 on markets in crypto-assets, and amending Regulations (EU) No 1093/2010 and (EU) No 1095/2010 and Directives 2013/36/EU and (EU) 2019/1937", May 2023. [5] N. Reiff, “Howey Test Definition: What It Means and Implications for Cryptocurrency”, Investopedia. Ukufinyelela: Jul. 15, 2025. [Online]. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/howey-test.asp [6] A. B. AK Qadir, “Ripple vs SEC: CEO Celebrates XRP Lawsuit Win, But Here’s Why It’s Not Fully Over Yet,” Coinpedia Fintech News. Wabelane: 15 Jul. 2025. https://coinpedia.org/news/ripple-vs-sec-ceo-celebrates-xrp-lawsuit-win-but-heres-why-its-not-fully-over-yet/ [7] I-Circle, “I-Transparency & Stability – I-Circle.” I-Accessed: Jul. 15, 2025. [Online]. I-Accessed: https://www.circle.com/transparency [8] BlackRock, “Circle Reserve Fund, USDXX, Institutional”, BlackRock. Inyaniso: Jul. 15, 2025. [Online]. Inyaniso: https://www.blackrock.com/cash/en-us/products/329365/circle-reserve-fund [9] L. Valente, “I-Stablecoins Inokufumana Umntu Olandelayo Olandelayo I-Allies Financial yeRhulumente yaseMelika,” Ark Invest. Ukufinyelela: 15 Jul. 2025. [Online]. https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/stablecoins-as-a-us-financial-ally [10] I-The Big Whale, “Izixhobo ze-2024 : I-Bank vs. Stablecoins.” I-Accessed: Jul. 15, 2025. https://www.thebigwhale.io/charts/benefices-2024-banque-vs-stablecoins [11] B. Peak, “Ukuba i-Tether inqakraza ukufumana i-MiCA – A Deep Dive”, Cointelegraph. I-Accessed: Jul. 15, 2025. [Online]. I-Accessed: https://cointelegraph.com/explained/why-tether-refuses-to-comply-with-mica [12] CoinGecko, “Cours EURC : Graphique de cours EURC en direct, Capitalisation et Actualités Unibertsity CoinGecko.” Ukukhuphela: Jul. 15, 2025. [Online]. https://www.coingecko.com/fr/coins/eurc [13] Luxembourg for Finance, “Who benefits from a digital Euro?”, Luxembourg for Finance. Ukufikelela: Jul. 15, 2025. [Online]. https://www.luxembourgforfinance.com/portfolio/who-benefits-from-a-digital-euro/ [14] R. Mazza, “I-Digital Euro Advances – But Power Outages and Public Concerns Underscore Growing Pains – FinTech Weekly,” I-FinTech Magazine Article. I-Accessed: Jul. 15, 2025. [Online]. https://www.fintechweekly.com/magazine/articles/digital-euro-ecb-push-innovation-issues [15] I-Trade Economics, “I-United States Fed Funds Interest Rate.” I-Accessed: Jul. 15, 2025. [Online]. I-Accessed: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate [16] I-European Central Bank, “Official Interest Rates”, I-European Central Bank. I-Accessed: Jul. 15, 2025. [Online]. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
