Isayensi Inenkinga Yokwethembeka. Ingabe Ukugembula Kungakulungisela?

Izimakethe zokubikezela sekuyisikhathi eside zisebenza njengamabhola ekristalu agcwele imithombo, zihlakaza imininingwane ehlakazekile yokubikezela ukhetho, amashifu kwezomnotho, kanye nempumelelo yezobuchwepheshe. Kodwa kwezesayensi, zeqa ukubikezela nje—ziba amalabhorethri aphilayo lapho okucatshangwayo kuhlolwa khona, kucwengisiswa, futhi kukhuthazwe ngokwezimali ngesikhathi sangempela. Le ndatshana ingena phakathi kwenguquko ye-epistemic evuswe izimakethe zokuqagela zesayensi—indlela ezinamandla okubhekana ngayo namaphutha esistimu ocwaningweni, zimise kabusha izindlela zokuqinisekisa, futhi zichaze kabusha ukuthi kusho ukuthini ukukhiqiza ulwazi emhlabeni ovulekile. Ukumakethwa kweqiniso Kuthiwani uma iqiniso lesayensi linganqunywanga amakomiti kanye nezici zomthelela, kodwa indawo yemakethe evulekile lapho okucatshangwayo kuphakama noma kwehla ngokusekelwe ekubhejelweni kwesikhathi sangempela? Emakhulwini eminyaka, ukuqinisekiswa kwesayensi kuye kwancika ekubuyekezweni kontanga okungaguquki, ukugunyazwa kwesikhungo, kanye nodumo lwezemfundo—izinhlelo ezigcwele ukuchema, izingqinamba, kanye nezisusa zezombusazwe. Umphumela? Inkinga yokukhiqiza kabusha, isikhukhula sezifundo ezingenawo amandla, kanye nohlelo lapho uxhaso lubeka khona izinto eziza kuqala ocwaningweni kunokufaneleka kwangempela kwe-epistemic ( ; ; ; ; ). Baker, 2016 Björk et al., 2010 Fang & Casadevall, 2012 Larivière et al., 2015 I-Romero, 2019 Izimakethe zokubikezela zethula enye indlela ehlukile: uhlaka lwezezimali lokukhuthaza ukukhiqizwa kolwazi, lapho imibono ingamane nje ishicilelwe—ihlolwa ingcindezi, icwengisiswe, futhi iqinisekiswe ngobuhlakani obuqoqekile. Azinabungozi—ziyakhula ngokungaqiniseki, zijwayelana ngokuqhubekayo nedatha nemininingwane emisha. Umgogodla wetiyori Sekuyisikhathi eside ihlonishwa njengezinjini zobuhlakani obuhlangene, izimakethe zokubikezela sekuyisikhathi eside zibonwa njengamandla aphazamisayo ekubikezelweni kwesayensi nasekuthatheni izinqumo ( ; ; ). Ngokudidiyela ulwazi oluhlukene lube uketshezi, izibikezelo zesikhathi sangempela, lezi zimakethe ziguqula ukungaqiniseki kube isignali eguquguqukayo, eguquguqukayo ngephoyinti ledatha ngalinye elisha. UHanson, ngo-1995 Buckley, 2014 Almenberg, Kittlitz & Pfeiffer, 2009 Emgogodleni wazo, izimakethe zokubikezela zihlanganisa ekushayeleni ngokweqile—uhlelo oluhlukaniselwe amandla lapho amathuba ashintsha khona ngesikhathi sangempela, enanela izimiso ze-epistemology yaseBayesia ( ). Esikhundleni semibono yochwepheshe engaguquki, baphoqelela ulwazi ukuba lunyakaze, ngokuqhubekayo balolonge izinkolelo njengoba kungena ubufakazi. Umphumela? Imodeli yesayensi yokuzilungisa, yokubamba iqhaza, lapho iqiniso linganqunywa khona—liyavela, lizivumelanise nezimo, futhi liqhudelane enkundleni evulekile yemibono. "ukuhlakanipha kwezixuku" Hsu, 2011 Isisekelo esiyingqopha-mlando sezimakethe zokubikezela sihambisana nefilosofi ka-Karl Popper yesayensi, ikakhulukazi umbono wakhe wokuthi inqubekelaphambili yesayensi yembuleka ngokuqagela nokuphikiswa—inqubo yokuzibandakanya okubalulekile kunokuthembela ebungcwetini obubodwa. Izimakethe zokubikezela zihlinzeka ngendawo ehlelekile lapho imibono eyahlukene ihlangana khona, iqhudelana, futhi icwengisise imibono eqanjiwe ngendlela ehlukaniselwe amazwe. Njengoba , omunye wabasekeli bokuqala bokubikezela izimakethe kwezesayensi, waphawula: Ukuguqula ukwahlulela komuntu ngamunye kube ukuqonda okuhlangene, izimakethe zokubikezela zinikeza enye indlela enamandla kunezinhlelo zokuhlola eziqhutshwa ngochwepheshe bendabuko. URobin Hanson (1995) “Izimakethe azizona nje izindawo lapho kuhwetshwa khona izimpahla—ziyinkundla yokuhlanganisa ulwazi.” Ngaphezu kwalokho, lezi zimakethe zifaka ithiyori yolwazi ye-Hayekian, ebeka ukuthi ulwazi oluhlakaziwe, lapho luhlanganiswe kahle, luveza izinqumo ezinembe kakhulu nezisebenza ngempumelelo kunokulawula okumaphakathi. Izimakethe zokubikezela ziphula ukuqinisekiswa kwesayensi ngaphandle kwezikhungo ze-hierarchical, ziguqula amandla kusistimu ehlukaniswe, evulekile lapho ulwazi lukhiqizwa, luvivinywa, futhi lucwengisiswe ndawonye. Ngaphezu nje kwethuluzi, bakha —esobala, ebambe iqhaza, futhi eshintshashintshayo ngocezu ngalunye olusha lobufakazi. ingqalasizinda ephilayo Umqondo oyinhloko: Izimakethe zokubikezela njengamathuluzi e-epistemic Izimakethe zokubikezela zisebenza njengezindlela ezihlukaniselwe ukuhlanganisa ulwazi. Ababambiqhaza babhejela ithuba lomphumela, futhi ubuhlakani obuqoqiwe bemakethe bulungisa izintengo ukuze zibonise isimo esingaba khona kakhulu. Kumongo wesayensi, izimakethe zokubikezela zithatha indima ehlukile njengamathuluzi e-epistemic—amasistimu okukhiqiza, ukuhlola, kanye nokucwengisiswa kolwazi. Ngokwakha izimakethe ngemibono yesayensi, ababambiqhaza babheja ukuthi izimangalo zizoqinisekiswa yini ngokuhlolwa, banikeze ukuhlolwa okuguquguqukayo, kwesikhathi sangempela kokwethembeka kwabo. Ukusuka ezinhlelweni zokuhlola eziqhutshwa ngochwepheshe ukuya ekubikezelweni okuqhutshwa yimakethe, izimakethe zokuqagela zesayensi zinikeza imisebenzi embalwa ebalulekile: Ukuhlanganiswa kolwazi: Izimakethe zokubikezela zihamba phambili ekuhlanganiseni ulwazi oluhlukaniselwe indawo oluvela emithonjeni eyahlukene, ngokuvamile okuholela ekubikezelweni okunembe kakhudlwana kunokuhlola ngakunye. Ukuhlanganiswa kolwazi oluhlakazekile: Isayensi ikhethekile ngokujulile, ngochwepheshe bagxile ezizindeni eziwumngcingo. Izimakethe zokubikezela zivumela bobabili ochwepheshe kanye nabantu bangaphandle abanolwazi ukuthi babambe iqhaza epulatifomu yokubikezela okwabelwana ngayo, bethola ukuqonda okuhlukahlukene ( ). I-Budescu & Chen, ngo-2015 Ukwakha ukuvumelana: Ezifundweni ezinokungavumelani okuphawulekayo kwesayensi, izimakethe zokubikezela zihlanganisa imibono eyahlukene ibe inani lemakethe eyodwa, enikeza isilinganiso senkolelo esiyiqoqo esingase sithembeke kakhulu kunokuhlaziya kwemeta-ulwazi noma amaphaneli ochwepheshe ( ). UWolfers noZitzewitz, ngo-2004 Umthelela wenjini ye-epistemic: Isikhumba sezezimali emdlalweni Kwenzekani uma iqiniso linenani lentengo? Kusayensi yendabuko, amaphutha avame ukuphikelela ngoba akekho ojeziswa ngokwezimali ngenxa yokungalungile. Ababuyekezi ontanga abalahlekelwa yimali lapho begunyaza iphepha elibi. Abahleli bejenali abakhokhi ngokushicilela izifundo ezibuthakathaka. Ezifundweni, ungaba nephutha iminyaka futhi uthole isikhundla. Izimakethe zokubikezela zishintsha igeyimu ngokuphoqelela ukunemba ngezisusa zezezimali. Uma imali isendleleni, imibono ithatha isisekelo seqiniso—abahlanganyeli baklonyeliswa ngenxa yemiphumela yokubikezela ngendlela efanele, hhayi ukuvikela ukuchema kwesikhungo noma ukuphusha ukulandisa. Lokhu kudala injini ye-epistemic enamandla, lapho ukuba okulungile kunenzuzo, futhi ukuba okungalungile kunemiphumela yangempela. Kulolu hlelo, ukuqinisekiswa kwesayensi kuba ukuhlolwa okuvulekile, okuphezulu, lapho imibono iphakama futhi iwe ngokusekelwe emandleni ayo okubikezela, hhayi ukugunyazwa kwesikhungo. Esikhundleni sokunxenxa iziphathimandla, imakethe ivuza into eyodwa kuphela: ukuba neqiniso mayelana neqiniso. Ukubhekana nenkinga yokuphindaphinda kwesayensi Esinye sezithembiso ezibaluleke kakhulu zezimakethe zokubikezela amandla azo okubhekana nenkinga yokukhiqiza kabusha—indaba ebukela phansi ukwethembeka kocwaningo lwesayensi ngenxa yokungakwazi ukuphindaphinda okutholakele okushicilelwe ( ; ; ). UGordon et al, 2021 Munafo et al., 2015 Holzmeister et al. 2024 Ucwaningo oluyingqophamlando olusebenzisa izimakethe zokubikezela ukuhlola izifundo zengqondo ezingama-44 lubonise ukuthi ukuhlola okuqhutshwa yimakethe kungabikezela ngempumelelo imiphumela yokuphindaphinda, ukwedlula izindlela zokuhlola zendabuko ( ). Ukuvumela ababambiqhaza ukuthi babheje ngethuba lokuphindaphinda okuphumelelayo, izimakethe zokubikezela zinikeza indlela engabizi kakhulu yokubeka phambili imizamo yokuphindaphinda. Izifundo ezinamathuba amancane okuphindaphinda ahlolwe imakethe zingamakwa ukuze kuqhutshekwe nokuhlolwa, kuyilapho izifundo zokuzithemba okuphezulu zingabekwa eqhulwini ukuze zisetshenziswe ngendlela engokoqobo. Dreber et al., 2015 Le ndlela iguqula umbhalo ekuqinisekisweni kwesayensi, imiselele ukugaya okunensayo kokuphindwaphindwayo kwangemva kokushicilela ngokuhlolwa kwekhwalithi okuguquguqukayo, okucatshangelwayo—izinsiza eziqondisayo lapho zibaluleke kakhulu khona kanye nokuqinisekisa ukuthi ucwaningo oluyisisekelo luthola ukugqama olulufanele. Ngaphandle kokubuyekezwa kontanga: Imodeli entsha yokuqinisekiswa kwesayensi Uhlelo oluvamile lokubuyekeza ontanga, nakuba luyisisekelo ekushicileleni kwesayensi, luvame ukugxekwa ngokuhamba kancane, okufiphele, kanye nokungenwa ukuchema okufana nokuqiniswa kwesimo esikhona kanye nokucabanga kweqembu. Izimakethe zokubikezela zinikeza enye indlela—uhlelo olubamba iqhaza nolusobala lokuqinisekiswa kwesayensi olusebenza ngesikhathi sangempela. ibone izimakethe zokubikezela njengamathuluzi okuguqula ukuvumelana kwesayensi, okufana nendlela i-blockchain ka-Satoshi Nakamoto eguqule ngayo ukuhwebelana kwezezimali. Uveze ukuthi izimakethe zokubikezela zingaba kwisayensi ukuthi ama-blockchains azokuxhasa ngani: uhlelo oluhlukaniselwe izwe, olusobala lokuhlanganisa ukwethembana nolwazi. Ngalo mqondo, izimakethe zokubikezela zihambisana ne-ethos ye-Decentralized Science (DeSci), efuna ukwenza intando yeningi nokwenza ingqalasizinda yesayensi ngokuzenzakalela. URobin Hanson (1995) Ushintsho olunjalo lungaholela kumbono omusha ekuqinisekiseni ucwaningo, lapho ukwethembeka kwesayensi kunganqunywa nje ngokubuyekezwa kontanga okumile kodwa kuhlolwa ngamandla ezimakethe zokubikezela eziqhubeka zibuyekeza ngokusekelwe ebufakazini obusha. Kulo mhlaba, iqiniso aliveli emagunyeni—liqhudelana endaweni yemakethe evulelekile, lapho kusekhona imibono eqine kakhulu. Izinzuzo zezimakethe zokubikezela kwisayensi 🟡 Amamodeli anamandla okuzilungisa Ngokungafani nemibono yochwepheshe emile noma izinhlolovo, izimakethe zokuqagela ziyaqhubeka zibuyekeza njengoba kuvela ulwazi olusha, okuvumela ukulungiswa kwesikhathi sangempela kuzibikezelo zesayensi. Lesi sici sibenza babaluleke kakhulu ezindaweni zocwaningo ezihamba ngokushesha. 🟡 Ukunciphisa ukuchema kwengqondo Ukuhlola okuvamile kwesayensi kuvame ukugoba ngaphansi kwesisindo sezigaba zezemfundo, ukungqubuzana kwentshisekelo, kanye ne-inertia ehlangene. Ukubophela izinzuzo zezezimali ekubikezelweni okunembile, izimakethe zokubikezela zinqamula ukuchema kwesikhungo, umbono ovuzayo phezu kokucabanga kwesimo samanje. 🟡 Ukuthuthukisa ukwabiwa kwezinsiza Uxhaso lwesayensi luvamise ukusatshalaliswa ngokusekelwe ekusebenzeni kocwaningo lwangaphambilini kanye nesithunzi sesikhungo kunokuba kube nomthelela ongase ube khona. Izimakethe zokubikezela zinikeza enye indlela ngokulinganisa inani elilindelekile leziphakamiso zocwaningo ngesikhathi sangempela. Ama-ejensi axhasa ngemali angasebenzisa le mininingwane ukuze abeke phambili amaphrojekthi ngomthelela omkhulu olindelwe, okwenza ukwabiwa kwezinsiza kusebenze kahle kakhudlwana ( ). Dreber et al., 2015 🟡 Izimpawu zakuqala zempumelelo yesayensi Imakethe yokuqagela ewuketshezi futhi esebenzayo ingasebenza njengenkomba yokuqala yokuguquguquka kokuvumelana kwesayensi. Esikhundleni sokulinda ukushicilelwa okusemthethweni kanye nemijikelezo yokubuyekezwa kontanga, abacwaningi bangaphendula ngokuguquguqukayo kumasignali emakethe asafufusa, balungise umsebenzi wabo ekuphenduleni ubufakazi obuguqukayo. 🟡 Ukukhuthaza ukubeka izinto obala kanye nesayensi evulekile Izimakethe zokubikezela ziguqula ukubikezela okuhlangene kube yinkulumompikiswano yomphakathi, eguquguqukayo, ekhulisa ukucaca enkulumweni yesayensi. Lapho behlanganiswa nezinhlelo zesayensi ezivulekile, bakha isistimu ehlukaniselwe ukuqinisekiswa kwe-hypothesis-ukuhlakulela isiko lokucwaninga elichumayo ngokuqina, ukusebenzisana, kanye nokuziphendulela. Ithiyori yokuhlanganisa nokwenza: Izivimbamgwaqo ezimakethe zokubikezela isayensi Naphezu kwesithembiso sazo setiyetha, izimakethe zokubikezela kwesayensi zibhekana nezithiyo ezinkulu ekusebenzeni. Imizamo yangaphambi kwesikhathi ike yazabalaza ngokubamba kanye esivimbela lezi zimakethe ukuthi zifinyelele inani elibalulekile elidingekayo ukuze kube nomthelela oqhubekayo. iqhaza okulinganiselwe, imali encane, nesikhalo Enye yezinkundla ezisebenze isikhathi eside, , ibambe izimakethe ngezihloko ezifana nokufudumala kwembulunga yonke kanye namazinga e-CO₂ emkhathini kusukela ngo-1994. Nokho, ithonya layo liye lahlala lincane. Njengoba kuphawulwe, imakethe yokufudumala kwembulunga yonke yabona ukuhwebelana okuyisikhombisa kuphela ngo-2015, okugqamisa ubunzima bokubandakanya ababambiqhaza abenele ukuze kukhiqizwe imali enengqondo. I-Foresight Exchange Thick (2017) Ngokufanayo, , inkundla ezinze eNew Zealand, izame ukuqalisa izimakethe mayelana nempumelelo yesayensi, njengokutholwa kwezinto ezintsha zethebula lezikhathi noma ukutholwa kabusha kwezinhlobo zezilwane ezingasekho. Nakuba kunengqondo ukuvelela, lezi zimakethe zehlulekile ukuheha inzalo eqhubekayo, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokuntuleka kokusekelwa kwesikhungo kanye nezisusa zokubamba iqhaza. Ukungabikho kwezindlela ezisemthethweni zokuhlanganisa izimakethe zokubikezela ekuthathweni kwezinqumo zesayensi kuvimbele ukwamukelwa kwazo. iPredict Ngokuphambene, , iphrojekthi yemakethe yokubikezela eholwa yi-George Mason University futhi exhaswe yi-IARPA, ibonise amandla okubikezela kwesayensi ukuze kudlulele ukubikezela kochwepheshe ngabanye. Ngohlelo lokukhuthaza olusekelwe kumathokheni, i-SciCast ihlanganyele ngempumelelo ababambiqhaza futhi yabonisa amandla obuhlakani obuhlangene ekubikezeleni imiphumela yesayensi. Njengoba kuphawuliwe*,* izimakethe zokubikezela zingenza ubungcweti bentando yeningi, ziphonsele inselele abalindisango bendabuko bokuqinisekiswa kwesayensi. I-SciCast U-Almenberg, u-Kittlitz no-Pfeiffer (2009) Kodwa-ke, naphezu kwale miphumela ethembisayo, i-SciCast ihlale ithule cishe iminyaka eyishumi, ibonisa umzabalazo obanzi wokusekela ukuhlanganyela okusebenzayo ezimakethe zokubikezela zesayensi. Isithembiso sokwabiwa kwamazwe Ukunyuka kwezinkundla ezihlukaniselwe abantu kuye kwaphefumulela impilo entsha ezimakethe zokubikezela zesayensi, kwagqashuka ekugadweni kwesikhungo kanye nemikhawulo yefa. Amapulatifomu asekelwe ku-Crypto afana -eye ngaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-30 zamaRandi enani lilonke elikhiyiwe (i-TVL) kanye ne- $ 1 bhiliyoni kumthamo wokuhweba oqoqiwe ngo-2024-ibonisa ukuqina kanye nesikhalazo sokubikezela okuhlukaniselwe amazwe. Njengoba izibikezelo ezihlobene nesayensi manje sezizuza amandla, i-Polymarket isiphenduke isizinda sabahlanganyeli abahlukahlukene, okufakazela ukuthi ngezisusa ezifanele kanye nomklamo, izimakethe zokubikezela zinganqoba imikhawulo yazo yangaphambilini. Namuhla, ibusa izimakethe zokubikezela ze-web3, iyadlula futhi iheha abasebenzisi abangu-150K+, iqinisa indima yayo njengegeji yamathuba omcimbi ovamile. I-Polymarket $600 million ngomthamo , inkundla yokubikezela esekelwe ku-Solana ekhulayo, inweba ekubikezelweni kwesayensi, inselele iPolymarket elawulwa yi-Ethereum. Ekuqaleni igxile kwezombusazwe, ezemidlalo, kanye nezezimali, manje isiqala izimakethe zokubikezela ukuphila isikhathi eside, ivumela ababhejayo ekuhloleni ukunwetshwa kwempilo yamagundane ngokusebenzisana no. . Izimakethe zeHedgehog futha.isayensi Kodwa-ke, indlela eya ekubikezelweni kwesayensi kwesayense ayizange ihambe kahle. , enye yezimakethe zokuqala zokubikezela ezisekelwe ku-blockchain, ekuqaleni yabonisa isithembiso kodwa yantenga ngenxa yezinkinga ezifana nokubheja okungekho emthethweni kanye ne-UX embi, okuholela ekuwohlokeni kokuthembana. Lezi zinyathelo ezingalungile zigcizelela isidingo sezinhlaka zokuziphatha kanye nokulinganisela okuqinile—ikakhulukazi ezimakethe zesayensi lapho ukwethembeka kubaluleke kakhulu. Njengoba u-Imre Lakatos engase aphikise, impumelelo yalezi zinkundla incike ekhonweni lazo lokusebenza “ —izinhlelo eziqinile, ezizilungisayo eziqondanisa ubuqotho bendlela yokusebenza nemininingwane enengqondo. Augur njengezinhlelo zocwaningo eziqhubekayo” Izikhombisi-ndlela zesikhathi esizayo zezimakethe zokubikezela kwesayensi Ukwamukelwa okusabalele kwezimakethe zokubikezela kwesayensi kubhekene nezinselelo ezimbalwa, okuhlanganisa ukukhathazeka ngokulawula (njengoba ezinye izindawo zingase zizihlukanise njengezinkundla zokugembula), izinkinga zezezimali (ukuqinisekisa ukubamba iqhaza okwanele ukuze kukhiqizwe izibikezelo ezinengqondo), kanye nesidingo sezindlela zokuxazulula eziqinile zokuqinisekisa imiphumela yesayensi. Ukwandisa umthelela wabo, ukusetshenziswa kwesikhathi esizayo kufanele kucabangele: I-AI-resolution nama-smart oracles: Ukusebenzisa ubuhlakani bokwenziwa kanye nama-oracles ahlukaniselwe ukwenza ngokuzenzakalelayo ukuqinisekiswa kwemiphumela yesayensi, kuncishiswe ukuzithoba kanye nokwethenjwa okwandayo ezinqumweni zemakethe. Amamodeli ayingxube ahlanganisa ukubuyekezwa kontanga kanye nokubikezela kwemakethe: Amajenali nezinhlangano ezixhasa ngemali zingahambisana nezinqubo zokubuyekeza zendabuko ngokuhlolwa kwamathuba okusekelwe emakethe. Abakhiqizi Bemakethe Abazenzakalelayo (ama-AMM) besayensi: Ukusebenzisa amasu okwenza imakethe e-algorithmic, njengemithetho ye-Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules (LMSR), ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukutholakala kwemali nokubamba iqhaza kalula (Hanson, 2003). Ukuhlanganiswa nezinkundla zesayensi ezivulekile: Ukushumeka izimakethe zokubikezela ezinkundleni zokucwaninga ezikhona ezivulekile kungakhuthaza ukubamba iqhaza okukhulu nokuba sobala. Izinyathelo zemfundo nezokufinyelela: Ukujwayela abacwaningi ngobukhenikha kanye nezinzuzo zezimakethe zokuqagela kuzobaluleka kakhulu ukuze bamukelwe. Izinselelo nezisombululo: Uhlangothi olumnyama lolwazi olumakethwayo Yonke inguquko iza nesiphithiphithi, ubungozi, nemiphumela ebingahlosiwe. Ngenkathi izimakethe zokubikezela zinikeza isivinini, ukucaca, kanye nobuhlakani obuhlukaniselwe izwe, ziphinde zivule umnyango wokukhohlisa, izingqinamba zokuziphatha, kanye namabhomu agqitshwayo alawulayo. Uma isayensi iphendulwa imakethe yokubheja, kwenzekani uma isistimu idlalwa? Lapho izikhuthazo zisuka ekufuneni iqiniso ziye ekwandiseni inzuzo? Lapho izimakethe ziqinisa ukuchema kunokukuqeda? Isiphetho Izimakethe zokubikezela azilona nje ithuluzi elisha kunqolobane yesayensi—ziwumvukeli ngokumelene nemishini enensayo, efiphele, nelandelanayo yokuqinisekisa ngokwesiko. Ngaphezu komshini wokubikezela, akha esiphilayo, ephefumulayo—ephumelela ekwahlukaniseni amazwe, obala, kanye nenhlanganisela yobuhlakani besikhathi sangempela. injini yesifo Uma zithatha izimpande, izimakethe zokubikezela kwesayensi ngeke nje zilungise uhlelo olukhona; bazobhala kabusha i-DNA yayo. Emhlabeni lapho ulwazi olunganembile lusabalala ngokushesha kunokutholwa, futhi ukuvumelana kuntekenteke futhi kuphikiswana ngakho, lezi zimakethe zinikeza enye indlela ehlakaniphile: inethiwekhi eguquguqukayo, ezilungisayo lapho iqiniso lingashiwongo phezulu kodwa livela ngokuhlanganyela ekucabangeni okuhlangene. Lokhu akukona ukubuyekezwa kontanga okungu-2.0—kuyinto eqine kakhulu: imakethe yemibono evulekile, eguqukayo, nengantengi, lapho ulwazi luvivinywa njalo, lucwengisiswa, futhi lucatshangwe kabusha. Izithenjwa U-Almenberg, J., Kittlitz, K., & Pfeiffer, T. (2009). Izimakethe zokubikezela zesayensi. (1), 105–117. Ijenali Yokuziphatha Kwezomnotho Nenhlangano, 80 Arrow, KJ, Forsythe, R., Gorham, M., Hahn, R., Hanson, R., Ledyard, J., Levmore, S., et al. (2008). Isithembiso sezimakethe zokubikezela. (5878), 877-878. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1157675 Isayensi, 320 I-Budescu, DV, & Chen, E. (2015). Ukuhlonza ubungcweti bokuthuthukisa izibikezelo zesixuku. (2), 267-280. Isayensi Yokuphatha, 61 Buckley, C. (2014). Iqhaza lezimakethe zokubikezela kwisayensi nenqubomgomo. (4), 287–304. Ijenali Yokubikezela, 33 U-Chen, Y., Kash, I., Ruberry, M., & Shnayder, V. (2011). Izimakethe zezinqumo ezinezisusa ezinhle. Ku (ikhasi 72–83). Springer. -Proceedings of Internet and Network Economics Dreber, A., Pfeiffer, J., Almenberg, J., & Wilson, B. (2015). Ukusebenzisa izimakethe zokubikezela ukulinganisa ukuphindaphindeka kocwaningo lwesayensi. (50), 15343-15347. Izinqubo zeNational Academy of Sciences, 112 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1516179112 U-Gordon, M., Viganola, D., Dreber, A., Johannesson, M., & Pfeiffer, T. (2021). Ukubikezela ukuphindaphindeka—Ukuhlaziywa kocwaningo kanye nedatha yemakethe yokubikezela evela kumaphrojekthi amakhulu wokubikezela. (4), e0248780. I-PLOS EYODWA, 16 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248780 U-Hanson, R. (1995). Ingabe ukugembula kungasindisa isayensi? Ukukhuthaza ukuvumelana okuqotho. (1), 3-33. I-Social Epistemology, 9 https://doi.org/10.1080/02691729508578768 U-Hanson, R. (1999). Izimakethe zezinqumo. (3), 16–19. I-IEEE Intelligent Systems, 14 U-Hanson, R. (2003). Idizayini yemakethe yolwazi oluhlanganisiwe. (1), 107–119. I-Information Systems Frontiers, 5 https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022046409482 Hanson, R., O'Leary, DE, & Zitzewitz, E. (2006). Ingabe ukugembula kungasindisa isayensi? Ukukhuthaza ukuvumelana okuqotho. (4), 557–570. Inqubomgomo Yocwaningo, 35 Holzmeister, F., Johannesson, M., Camerer, CF, Chen, Y., Ho, T., Hoogeveen, S., et al. (2024). Ihlola ukuphindaphindeka kokuhlolwa okuku-inthanethi okukhethwe imakethe yezinqumo. Imvelo Ukuziphatha Komuntu. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-024-02062-9 Hoogeveen, S., Sarafoglou, A., & Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2020). I-Laypeople ingabikezela ukuthi yiziphi izifundo zesayensi yezenhlalo ezizophindaphindwa ngempumelelo. (3), 267-285. Intuthuko Yezindlela Nezinqubo Zesayensi Yengqondo, 3 U-Hsu, E. (2011). Izimakethe zokubikezela zesayensi. (1), 105–117. Ijenali Yokuziphatha Kwezomnotho Nenhlangano, 80 https://ir.law.fsu.edu/articles/497/ Ioannidis, JPA (2005). Kungani okuningi okutholakele ocwaningweni olushicilelwe kungamanga. (8), e124. Imithi ye-PLOS, 2 Litfin, T., Chen, K.-Y., & Price, E. (2014). Ukubeka ukubikezela kwesixuku: Iphrojekthi ye-SciCast. (4), 193–210. Ukuhlaziywa Kwezinqumo, 11 UMarcoci, A., et al. (2023). Ukubikezela ukuphindaphindeka kwezimangalo zesayensi yezenhlalo nezokuziphatha ezivela Kuphrojekthi Ye-COVID-19 Preprint Replication enochwepheshe abahlelekile namaqembu aqalayo. I-MetaArXiv Preprint. https://doi.org/10.31222/osf.io/xdsjf Munafo, MR, Pfeiffer, T., Altmejd, A., Heikensten, E., Almenberg, J., Bird, A., et al. (2015). Ukusebenzisa izimakethe zokubikezela ukubikezela ukuhlolwa kocwaningo. (10), 150287. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.150287 I-Royal Society Open Science, 2 U-Pfeiffer, T., & Almenberg, J. (2015). Izimakethe zokubikezela zesayensi: Ingabe i-hype ilungile? (7575), 179-182. Imvelo, 526 Potthoff, M. (2007). Amandla ezimakethe zokubikezela kwezesayensi. (1), 45–53. Futures, 39 Spears, T., & Metaculus Team. (2020). Ubuhlakani obuqoqiwe ekubikezeleni: Inkundla ye-Metaculus. (4), 589–602. Ijenali yokubikezela, 39 Surowiecki, J. (2004). Izincwadi Ze-Anchor. Ukuhlakanipha kwezixuku. Tetlock, PE, & Gardner, D. (2015). Umqhele. I-Superforecasting: Ubuciko nesayensi yokubikezela. Thicke, M. (2017). Imikhawulo yezimakethe zokubikezela zokuvumelana kwesayensi. (1), 50-58. Izifundo Zomlando kanye Nefilosofi Yesayensi, 58 https://philppapers.org/rec/THIPMF-2 Tziralis, G., & Tatsiopoulos, I. (2012). Izimakethe zokubikezela: Ukubuyekezwa okunwetshiwe kwezincwadi. (1), 75–91. Ijenali Yezimakethe Zokubikezela, 1 Van Noorden, R. (2014). Uxhaso lwezimali locwaningo lomhlaba wonke: Yini enqanyulwayo? (7485), 618-619. Imvelo, 505 https://doi.org/10.1038/505618a U-Vaughan-Williams, D. (2019). Izimakethe zokubikezela kanye nokuhlanganiswa kolwazi kusayensi. (4), 75–98. Ijenali Yemibono Yezomnotho, 33 Wolfers, J., & Zitzewitz, E. (2004). Izimakethe zokubikezela. (2), 107–126. Ijenali Yemibono Yezomnotho, 18 Wang, W., & Pfeiffer, T. (2022). Izimakethe zezinqumo ezisekelwe kwizibambiso. Ku , 79-92. Springer. -Proceedings of Distributed Artificial Intelligence, 13170