Ukunyibilika kweGlaciers Slash Amaxesha okuHamba-kodwa yiza ngexabiso elifihlakeleyo

Itheyibhile yoQhagamshelwano

• Imvelaphi, Iziphumo, kunye neZiphetho
• I. Imvelaphi
• II. Inkcazo yedatha
• III. Uhlalutya
• IV. Ingxoxo
• V. Iindlela
• VI. Izibhengezo
• VII. Imibulelo

Imvelaphi

Ukucuthwa kokugquma komkhenkce elwandle ngokufudumala kweArctic kunceda ukuhamba kweenqanawa kwiindlela ezimfutshane ngokumangalisayo kuneendlela zokuthumela ngenqanawa. I-Automatic Identification System (AIS), eyilelwe ngokufanelekileyo ukunqanda ukungqubana kwenqanawa, idlulisa ulwazi lokuhamba ngenqanawa (ngoku iindidi ezingama-27 zemiyalezo) efana negama, isikhundla okanye isantya, ngumthombo wedatha onamandla wokubeka iliso kwinkqubela phambili yokuhanjiswa kweArctic njengokhuselo lomkhenkce. iyancipha.

Iziphumo

Ngokusekwe kuhlalutyo lweqonga le-intanethi lokuqokelela idatha ye-AIS yokuthumela ngenqanawa, silinganisele ukuhanjiswa kwendawo yokuthumela ngenqanawa kuLwandlekazi lwe-Arctic, ubunzulu bayo kunye nenguquko yexeshana, ngokunxulumene nommandla okhutshwe ngummandla womkhenkce wolwandle. Ukuhamba ngenqanawa kuLwandlekazi lwe-Arctic kusasazwa ngokwesithuba ngokulandela usasazo olunomsila onzima, oko kuthetha ukuba itrafikhi enzima kwindawo ye-Arctic enyiniweyo, ene-exponent exhomekeke kudidi lwenqanawa.

Ukuloba lolona didi lunowona mmandla mkhulu, kunye nobubanzi beendlela zokuthumela ngenqanawa ezihambelana nommandla womkhenkce wolwandle. Ixesha lokuvela kwezi ndlela liphawulwa kukwandisa ixesha elongeziweyo lomsebenzi wokuhambisa ngenqanawa unyaka wonke.

Izigqibo

Idatha ye-AIS inika ulwazi oluxabisekileyo malunga nomsebenzi weenqwelo zamazwe ngamazwe kwihlabathi jikelele. Kumxholo wezivumelwano ezitsha zamazwe ngamazwe, ngumthombo oxabisekileyo wokubeka iliso kwiinqanawa, ukuloba kunye nefuthe elinokubakho kubomi baselwandle phakathi kweminye imiba. Apha sigxininise ekuthuthweni kwenqanawa kwiArctic kwiminyaka yakutshanje, ekhula ngokukhawuleza, ngakumbi malunga neendlela zonxweme ezikuMntla-mpuma kunye noMntla-ntshona, ukubonelela ngethuba loyilo lweendlela ezimfutshane zokuthumela kunye nokunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwegesi eluhlaza ekuthuthweni kwempahla, kodwa kwindawo umngcipheko weempembelelo kwi-ecosystem ye-Arctic.

I. IMVELAPHI

I-traffic yokuthutha imele indlela yothutho ebalaseleyo kurhwebo lwehlabathi, ukuhambisa ngaphezu kwe-80% yomthamo worhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe lwempahla [1]. Enyanisweni, ukukhula koqoqosho kukhokelele ekunyukeni okufanayo kwezithuthi zaselwandle ngama-60% kwixesha eliphakathi kwe-1992 kunye ne-2002 [2]. Ukubaluleka kothutho lwaselwandle kuqoqosho lwehlabathi kwangqinwa ngo-2020 xa iSuez Canal yavalwa xa inqanawa yeekhonteyina i-Ever Given yayixinga. Ithuba lokukhulisa ukuvulwa kweendlela ezintsha zeArctic ezihambisa iimpahla ukusuka eAsia ukuya eYurophu nakuMntla Melika ngenxa yokuncipha komkhenkce kuya kwandisa izithuthi kwaye kuzise izoyikiso ezintsha kule ecosystem esemngciphekweni [3], ukongeza kwiimpembelelo ezithe ngqo zemozulu ekhawulezayo. utshintsho kwiArctic. Enyanisweni, uqikelelo lwexesha lokuthumela lubonakalise ukunyuka kwe-7% phakathi kwe-2013 kunye ne-2022 [4].

Ubuchwepheshe bokulandela umkhondo budlala indima enkulu kuhlalutyo lokuhamba kweenqanawa elwandle, ukuvumela ukubalwa kokuziphatha kweenqanawa ezininzi ezineziphumo zoqoqosho, ezopolitiko nezendalo. Umzekelo, ukulandelela iinqanawa zokuloba kuququzelele ukuthelekelela iindawo ezishushu zomsebenzi wokuloba [5–7]. Ngaphezu koko, ukudityaniswa phakathi kwemikhondo yeenqanawa zokuloba kunye nokulandela umkhondo wezilwanyana zaselwandle kubonakalise imimandla enomngcipheko omkhulu wokudibana kwaye ngaloo ndlela umngcipheko wokubanjiswa phakathi kweenqanawa zokuloba nookrebe [8], kunye nobungozi bokungqubana kwemikhumbi emikhulu kunye ne-whale sharks [8] 9].

Okwangoku, iimveliso ezithathwe kwidatha yokulandelela inqanawa ziyafumaneka ngokuvulelekileyo. Umzekelo, eyona mveliso iphambili yeGlobal Fishing Watch ichaza iinzame zokuloba kwindawo ephezulu kunye nesisombululo sexeshana kwihlabathi jikelele [5]. Nangona kunjalo, iiseti zedatha ezibanzi, kubandakanywa umzekelo iitrajectories zezinye iindidi zeenqanawa kwihlabathi jikelele, ziyafumaneka ngokuthengwa kwabucala. Ukoyisa ingxaki yobunini bedatha kunye nokulinganisa, amanyathelo amatsha aphuhliswa ukwenza uhlalutyo lwe-intanethi kunye nokufikelela kwiidatha ezihlambulukileyo zangaphambili, ezicutshungulwe kwangaphambili kunye neziqinisekisiweyo zesayensi ezivela kwimithombo emininzi. Kweli cala i-HUB Ocean iphuhlise i-Ocean Data Platform (oceandata.earth), apho izazinzulu zinokwenza uhlalutyo lwe-intanethi lweedatha ezininzi ezichaza iziganeko ezahlukeneyo zolwandle, ezifana nosulelo lwezifunxi-gazi kwiifama zentlanzi, ukukhutshwa kweenqanawa zehlabathi okanye idatha ye-geospatial echaza iiNdawo zaseLwandle eziKhuselweyo. (iiMPAs).

Apha, sinika ingxelo yohlalutyo lwethu lokuhamba ngenqanawa kwi-Arctic Ocean phakathi kukaJanuwari 2020 kunye no-Epreli 2022 ngohlalutyo lwedatha oluphuhliswe kwiVeki yokuHlola yaBucala yePlatform yeDatha ye-Ocean.

II. INKCAZELO YEDATHA

Ukuhanjiswa kwetrafikhi. Ukusetyenziswa emajukujukwini kweenqanawa ezidlula kuLwandle lwe-Arctic kwathathwa kwidatha yeNkqubo yokuchongwa okuzenzekelayo (AIS). I-AIS yinkqubo eyaziswa kukhuseleko lwaselwandle ebonelela, phakathi kwezinto ezahlukeneyo zedatha, isantya, isibanzi kunye nobude bemikhumbi esebenzisa inkqubo. I-platform ye-Ocean Data Platform edibeneyo yokulandelela idatha ye-AIS kwisisombululo senyanga kunye nesisombululo esiphezulu sendawo kwaye ibike inani leeyure iseli yegridi nganye idluliselwe kwiinqanawa. Ixesha lohambo lwenyanga likhona ukusuka kuJanuwari ka-2020 ukuya ku-Epreli ka-2022, kwaye yachaza iindidi ezintlanu zeenqanawa (impahla, ukuloba, abakhweli, iitanki kunye nezinye). Uhlalutyo lwethu, sazisa igridi yehlabathi ye-0.1◦ × 0.1◦ isisombululo, ukukhetha i-latitudes ephezulu kune-Arctic Circle (66.6◦, Umfanekiso 1).

Ukuguquka kwexesha lommandla ogutyungelwe ziindlela zokuthumela kunye nedatha esetyenziselwe uvavanyo lwangaphambili lwendlela yokuhamba ngenqanawa ye-Arctic [10], ukubonelela ngothelekiso lweDatha yePlatform yeDatha ye-Ocean kwaye ibonise ukuvela kwexesha elide le-Arctic. ukuhamba ngenqanawa kwi-Arctic Ocean. Le dataset yangaphambili inike ingxelo ngenani lenyanga leenqanawa ezizodwa ezichongwe yinkqubo ye-AIS kwi-0.25◦×0.25◦ iseli yegridi nganye, phakathi kukaJulayi 2010 noMeyi 2015.

Isigqubuthelo somkhenkce wolwandle. Ummandla womkhenkce wolwandle wafunyanwa kwiSalathiso soMkhenkce woLwandle, esibonelelwa yiNational Snow and Ice Data Centre (United States) [11]. Le dataset inike ingxelo ngenguquko yenyanga yommandla womkhenkce wolwandle kuMntla weIkhweyitha, kunye nemimandla ethile yeArctic, apho sithathele ingqalelo uMmandla weCanadian Archipelago, iBaffin Bay kunye noLwandle lwaseBeaufort kwindlela yaseMntla-ntshona, ngelixa sasiqwalasela Ulwandle lwaseSiberia lwaseMpuma, uLwandle lwaseKara kunye noLwandle lwaseBarents kwindlela yaseMntla-mpuma.

III. UHLALUTYA

Uxinaniso lokuthumela ngenqanawe lubalwe njengexesha lokuhamba kwiseli yegridi nganye eyahlulwe ngendawo yeseli, idibanisa ixesha lazo zonke iinqanawa ezisebenzisa i-AIS kummandla oqwalaselwayo. Le pateni ibonakalise iindawo ezishushu zomsebenzi wokuhambisa inqanawa, zombini kwimephu iyonke kunye nakwiipatheni ezithile ezinxulumene neendidi zeenqanawa ezahlukeneyo (umzobo 1). Iinqanawa zokuloba zimele elona galelo likhulu ekuhanjisweni kweenqanawa kuLwandlekazi lweArctic, ngakumbi kuLwandle lwaseBarents kodwa nakwindawo ekufutshane neIceland. Iinqanawa ezithwala imithwalo, ngokufanayo neenqanawa ezithwele imithwalo, zibonise iipatheni apho siye saqwalasela iindlela ezikuMntla-mpuma kunye noMntla-ntshona wePasaji, kunye neyokugqibela isiya iba banzi eBaffin Bay, apho iinqanawa zokuhamba ngeetanki zithatha indawo encinci kulo mmandla. Izithuthi zabakhweli zigubungela amaqhezu asezantsi ommandla njengoko iindlela ezixhaphakileyo bezimfutshane, umzekelo kunxweme lwaseNorway nolwaseIceland.

I-heterogeneity ye-heterogeneity yobuninzi bokuthumela kuyo yonke indawo ichazwe ngokusasazwa okunomsila onzima, njengokuba iiseli ezininzi zegridi zibonise ukuxinwa kokuthutha okuphantsi, kunye neeseli ezimbalwa ezigxininisa amaxabiso amakhulu (umzobo 2). Ngokukodwa, ukuhanjiswa koxinano lwenqanawa oludityanisiweyo (kuzo zonke iindidi) kunye neendidi ezithile zichazwe ngonikezelo lomthetho wamandla. Senze uhlengahlengiso lomthetho-mthetho kolu lwabiwo kunye nePython package powerlaw, sifumana i-exponents efakiweyo 1.79 (ihlanganisiwe), 1.49 (umgibeli), 1.90 (itanki), 1.74 (impahla) kunye ne-1.96 (ukuloba). Ukuloba, siqwalasele iirejimenti ezimbini, apho ukuhanjiswa kusondele kulwabiwo olufanayo loxinaniso olusezantsi (oko kukuthi, nge-exponent encinci), ngelixa uxinaniso olukhulu luthetha ukuhla okukhawulezayo, eyayikukuziphatha okubanjwe kukuhlehla.

Ukushwankathela, imodeli ye-null engacwangciswanga ethathela ingqalelo imvelaphi-indawo yokufikela, enemvelaphi esisigxina kunye namathuba afanayo okufikelela nakweyiphi na indawo ekusingwa kuyo okanye ngokuphendululekileyo, ikhokelela kunikezelo olufanayo kumyinge omnye, ngelixa unikezelo lunomsila onzima nge-exponent 3 kwimilinganiselo emibini.

Ukubona iindlela zokuthumela ngenqanawa, sibale umndilili wokuxinana kwenqanawa kwilongitudi nganye, sithathela ingqalelo kuphela iiseli zegridi ezinamaxabiso angengo-zero, kwaye zimele uxinaniso lothunyelo olunxulumeneyo lweseli yegridi nganye, oko kukuthi, ukuxinwa kwenqanawa okwahlulwe ngomndilili wokuxinana kwenqanawa yayo. ubude (jonga Iindlela). Siqaphele ukuba amaxabiso aphezulu abekwe kwindawo ekufutshane nonxweme (Umfanekiso 3). Obu buchule buveze iindlela eziphambili zokuthumela ngenqanawa (iipaseji ezibomvu kwi-Fig. 3), kunye neendawo ezininzi zokuloba ezishushu kwiilwandle eziphezulu. Sibhaqe iindlela ezimbini eziphambili zenqanawa zeArctic, uMntla-mpuma kunye neNorthwest Passage, zombini ezidibanisa uMntla wePasifiki kunye nolwandlekazi lwaseMantla yeAtlantiki, kunye neNdlela yaseMntla-mpuma yahlulahlulwe kubini kuMantla nakumazantsi eZiqithi zaseLyakhovsky. Uninzi lwezithuthi ezi ndlela zombini bezinxulunyaniswa nenqanawa ezithwala itanki kunye nemithwalo, njengoko kubonisiwe kukungabikho kokuqhubekeka kwendawo ecaleni kwendlela kwiinqanawa zabakhweli kunye nokuloba ekulindeleke ukuba zibonise uhambo olufutshane.

Emva kokuhlalutya iipropati zesithuba soxinaniso lweenqanawa kwiseti yedatha edityanisiweyo nakuzo zonke iindidi zeenqanawa ezahlukeneyo, sigxile kuguquko lwexeshana lothutho lwenqanawa, sihlanganisa yonke imigqaliselo kwi-Arctic Circle. Esona sithuthi siphezulu sokuhamba ngenqanawa kulo lonke ixesha sihambelana neenqanawa zokuloba ezilandelwa, ngomyalelo ocuthayo, ngabakhweli, iinqanawa zemithwalo kunye neetanki (Fig. 4). Ngelixa inguqu enxulumene nokuloba kunye nenqanawa yabakhweli ingakhange ibonise ukuguquguquka okukhulu, ukuhamba ngenqanawa kwinqanawa yempahla kunye neenqwelomoya kubonise umsebenzi omkhulu ehlotyeni nasekuqalekeni kwekwindla zombini ngo-2020 nango-2021.

Ekugqibeleni, siye salinganisa ukuguquka kwexesha elide le-Northwest Passage kunye neendlela ezikuMntla-mpuma kunye nedatha ehambelanayo echaza inani leenqanawa ezizodwa eziqatshelwe kwi-cell cell ye-0.25◦× 0.25◦ phakathi kukaJulayi 2010 noMeyi 2015. Ukuqinisekisa ukuthelekisa yethu idatha, sifumene ububanzi bendlela yomkhumbi ngokulandela inkqubo efanayo njengoko ichazwe ngasentla, kodwa siqwalasela ubungakanani beseli yegridi efanayo, oko kukuthi, iiseli ezine-0.25◦ icala. Siye saqaphela ipateni efanayo kuyo yonke iminyaka eyahlukeneyo kwimeko yePassage yaseMntla-ntshona, ngelixa indlela yaseMntla-mpuma ibonise ukuhla okumangalisayo kwexabiso layo eliphezulu kwelona datha yedatha yamva nje, kunye nokukhula kwixesha apho indlela ibonise umsebenzi obonakalayo (Fig. 7).

IV. INGXOXO

Ubukho bedata malunga nokusingqongileyo elwandle, umzekelo iindlela zezilwanyana okanye izigrogriso kubomi baselwandle [13], kuthintelwe ngokwembali xa kuthelekiswa nedatha echaza iinkqubo ezenzeka emhlabeni. Nangona kunjalo, inguqu ye-paradigm evela kuluntu kunye nee-arhente zenkxaso-mali zenzululwazi malunga nemigaqo-nkqubo yokwabelana ngedatha iguqulelwe kukukhutshwa rhoqo kwedatha yaselwandle. Kulo mxholo, ukuqokelela amaqonga e-intanethi, ukucocwa, kunye nokulinganisa iiseti zedatha yemithombo emininzi zimele inzuzo enkulu yokuqhubela phambili isayensi yolwandle [14, 15]. Ngaphezu koko, ukufumaneka kweeseva zokubala kwi-intanethi kuzisa utshintsho olubhekiselele kwidemokhrasi kungekuphela nje ukufikelela kwedatha, kodwa kunye nezixhobo zokubala ukusetyenzwa kwedatha enkulu. Kulo mxholo, siphuhlise uhlalutyo lwethu lwe-Arctic yokuthutha i-traffic ngaphandle kweendleko usebenzisa i-Ocean Data Connector ye-HUB Ocean, kwiVeki yokuHlola yaBucala.

Uhlalutyo lwexesha elide lokuhamba ngenqanawa kuMntla-mpuma kunye neendlela ze-Northwest Passage zibike i-FIG. 5. Ukuguquka kwexesha lokuhamba ngenqanawa kwi-longitude nganye. Iphaneli ephezulu imele umndilili wokuxinana kwenqanawa ngaphaya kweeseli ezinokuthunyelwa okungeyo-null kwilongitudi nganye, ngelixa umzantsi umele ubude becandelo lezi seli. Amangenelo amhlophe amele ukungabikho kwetrafikhi. Imigca emnyama ekwindawo yolawulo ephezulu imele iilongitudi esizikhethe njengoyena mmeli wokulinganisa uMntla-mpuma kunye neendlela zokudlula ezikuMntla-ntshona, ngokulandelelanayo, i-150º kunye ne-90º. ipateni yexesha lonyaka elindelekileyo kuzo zombini iindlela, ebonisa ukuguquguquka okuphantsi kuMntla-ntshona wokuPasa. Nangona kunjalo, indlela yaseMntla-mpuma ibonise ukucuthwa kwamva nje kobona bubanzi bukhulu bendlela, kunye nokuziphatha kwexesha elide lonyaka, okt indlela ibimxinwa, kodwa isetyenziswe kwiqhezu elide lonyaka. Izithintelo zokuhamba zasekhaya, zengingqi kunye nezamazwe ngamazwe ukunciphisa ukusasazeka kwe-COVID-19, esele ibizwa ngokuba "yi-anthropause" [16, 17], etyhutyha uninzi lwexesha lethu lohlalutyo, okuthetha kunye nokwehliswa kwamaxabiso emveliso yefektri, kwaye chaza oku kuhla kububanzi bendlela yaseMntla-mpuma, njengoko ukuncipha kwezithuthi kuya kukhokelela kwiinqanawa ezilandela iindlela ezikufutshane neyona ilungileyo, ngokomgama, kuthathelwa ingqalelo yonke indawo kunye imiqobo yokusingqongileyo (umkhenkce). Ngapha koko, uhlalutyo lwehlabathi lubonakalise ukuhla kwe-1.4% kumanani ezithuthi kwiinyanga zokuqala zobhubhane, ngakumbi kwi-Hemisphere yaseMantla [18].

Ukwehla kobukhulu bomkhenkce wolwandle kuLwandlekazi lweArctic ngokufudumala okukhawulezileyo kweArctic kubonisa ithuba lokuphucula iindlela zokuthumela ngenqanawa, ukunciphisa ubude bexesha lokuhamba kunye neendleko, ngoko ke, ukukhutshwa kwerhasi yegreenhouse. Nangona kunjalo, oku kwanda kwe-Arctic yokuthutha i-traffic inokuba yi-harbinger ye "blue acceleration" [19] kwi-Arctic, isoyikisa iintlobo zaselwandle ezingazange zivelele kwiingozi zokuthutha [20], ezifana nokuhlaselwa kweenqanawa [21] okanye ngaphantsi kwamanzi. ingxolo [22], ukongeza kwezinye izixinzelelo ezifana nongcoliseko lweplastiki esele lufunyenwe [23, 24]. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukufumaneka kweendlela ezintsha zokuthumela iinqanawa kunokubonisa ingxelo engalunganga esekelwe ebantwini malunga nokufudumala kwehlabathi, ukunciphisa ukukhutshwa kweenqanawa ngenxa yokusetyenziswa kweendlela ezimfutshane [25]. Le miba enokubakho emihle nengalunganga iqaqambisa ukubaluleka kohlalutyo lwedatha ukubeka iliso nokulawula i-Arctic yokuthuthwa kwenqanawa, enceda ukunciphisa iimpembelelo zokusingqongileyo.

V. IIINDLELA

Uxinaniso lokuthumela. Idatha ekrwada ibonelele ngexesha lokuhamba ngenqanawa kwiiseli zegridi ezinesombululo esiphezulu ezixhotyiswe ngezixhobo ze-AIS, kubandakanywa zonke iinqanawa ezihambayo kunye nokwahlulwa kwazo zibe ziindidi zenqanawa ezine, ukuloba, abakhweli, imithwalo kunye netanki. Sidibanise ezi seli zegridi ezinokulungiswa okuphezulu kwiiseli zegridi zobukhulu 0.1◦× 0.1◦ . Sifumene ingxinano yokuthumela ngenqanawe esahlula ixesha lokuhamba ngenqanawa ngendawo yeseli A:

apho i-R = 6371 km yiradiyasi yoMhlaba, ϕ sisibanzi seedigri, kwaye ∆λ kunye ∆ϕ, ngokulandelelanayo, amacala obude kunye namacala e-latitudinal eseli ngezidanga.

I-avareji yoxinaniso lokuthumela ngelongitudi nganye. Sibala i-avareji yoxinaniso lwenqanawa nge-longitude nganye njengesixa salo lonke ixesha lokuhamba ngenqanawe ngeeseli ezinobude obufanayo, zahlulwe ngommandla wezo seli ngexesha lokuhamba elingelo-zero, lilandela i-Eq. 7. Ngexesha lenguquko yeli xabiso (umzobo 5, phezulu), kwinqanaba ngalinye lexesha siqwalasela kuphela iiseli ezinexesha elingenalo zero ngelo xesha.

Ububanzi bendlela ngokobude. Sithathela ingqalelo zonke iiseli zegridi kummandla we-Arctic ngobude obuthile λ, kwaye sibale ixesha lokuvela kwenani leeseli N(λ, t) ebonise ixesha lokuhamba elingelo-zero. Sibale ububanzi bendlela W(λ, t) njengobude becandelo elinqamlezayo lelathitudinal yezi seli:

VI. IZIBHENGEZO

A. Inkxaso-mali

I-JPR ixhaswe yiprogram ye-Juan de la Cierva Forrmacion (Ref. FJC2019-040622-I) ixhaswe yi-MCIN / AEI / 10.13039 / 501100011033. I-JPR ifumene inkxaso kwi-Arhente yoPhando yaseSpain MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 ngeprojekthi iMISLAND (PID2020-114324GB-C22).

Olu phando luxhaswa yiYunithi yokuGqwesa ka-Mar'ıa de Maeztu 2023-2027 Refs. I-CEX2021-001201- M kunye ne-CEX2021-001164-M, ixhaswa yi-MCIN / AEI / 10.13039/501100011033.

B. Amagalelo oMbhali

I-JPR: I-Conceptualization, i-Curation yeNkcukacha, uHlalutyo olusesikweni, i-Software, i-Visualization, ukuBhala: i-Original Draft. KK: Uhlalutyo olusesikweni, uBhalo: uPhononongo kunye noHlelo. CMD: Ingqikelelo, Ukubhala: Uphononongo kunye noHlelo. I-VME: Ingqikelelo, uHlahlelo olusesikweni, ukuBhala: UYilo lokuqala.

VII. IMIBULELO

Ababhali bavuma i-platform ye-HUB Ocean hubocean.earth yokufikelela kwiinkcukacha kunye nezixhobo zokubala ukuba ziqhube ukude zonke uhlalutyo, nge-Ocean Data Connector.

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