Gushonga Ibibarafu bigabanya ibihe byo kohereza - Ariko uze ufite ikiguzi cyihishe

Abanditsi: (1) Jorj P. , CSIC-UIB, 07190 Esporles (Espanye); (2) Konstantin Klemm, Instituto de Fısica Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos (IFISC), CSIC-UIB, 07122 Palma de Mallorca (Espanye); . . Imbonerahamwe Amavu n'amavuko, ibisubizo, n'imyanzuro I. Amavu n'amavuko II. Ibisobanuro Ibisobanuro III. Isesengura IV. Ikiganiro V. Uburyo VI. Amatangazo VII. Gushimira Amavu n'amavuko Kugabanuka k'urubura rwo mu nyanja hamwe n'ubushyuhe bwa Arctique byorohereza ubwikorezi bw'amato binyuze mu nzira ngufi cyane ugereranije n'inzira gakondo zoherezwa. Sisitemu yo Kumenyekanisha Byikora (AIS), byakozwe muburyo bwiza bwo kwirinda kugongana kwubwato, kohereza kumakuru yubwato bwubwato (kuri ubu ubwoko 27 bwubutumwa) nkizina, umwanya cyangwa umuvuduko, nisoko ikomeye yamakuru yo gukurikirana imigendekere yubwikorezi bwa Arctique nkibipfundikizo bya barafu igabanuka. Ibisubizo Dushingiye ku isesengura ryurubuga rwa interineti rukusanya amakuru yoherejwe na AIS, twagereranije ikwirakwizwa ry’ibicuruzwa biva mu nyanja ya Arctique, ubukana bwabyo n’ihindagurika ry’agateganyo, bijyanye n’akarere kasohowe n’akarere ka barafu. Kohereza mu nyanja ya Arctique bigabanywa ahantu hatandukanye nyuma yo gukwirakwiza umurizo uremereye, bivuze ko imodoka nyinshi zinyura mu gace gato ka Arctique, hamwe n’ikimenyetso gishingiye ku cyiciro cy’ubwato. Uburobyi nicyiciro gifite ikibanza kinini cyakwirakwijwe, hamwe nubugari bwinzira zoherezwa zifitanye isano nubuso bwa hafi yinyanja. Igihe cyihindagurika ryinzira zirangwa no kongera igihe kinini cyibikorwa byo kohereza umwaka. Umwanzuro AIS amakuru atanga amakuru yingirakamaro kubikorwa byamato mpuzamahanga kwisi yose. Mu rwego rw’amasezerano mashya mpuzamahanga, ni isoko yingenzi yo kugenzura ubwikorezi, uburobyi n’ingaruka zishobora kubaho mu nyanja n’ibindi. Hano twibanze ku bwikorezi bwa Arctique mu myaka yashize, bugenda bwiyongera cyane, cyane cyane hafi y’inyanja y’amajyaruguru y’Amajyaruguru n’Amajyaruguru y’Amajyaruguru, butanga amahirwe yo gutegura inzira ngufi zo kohereza no kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere biva mu gutwara ibicuruzwa, ariko kuri a ibyago byingaruka kuri ecosystem ya Arctique. I. INYUMA Ubwikorezi bwo gutwara ibicuruzwa bugaragaza uburyo bwiganjemo ubwikorezi mu bucuruzi ku isi, butanga hejuru ya 80% y’ubucuruzi mpuzamahanga bw’ibicuruzwa [1]. Mubyukuri, ubwiyongere bwubukungu bwatumye ubwiyongere buringaniye bw’imodoka zo mu nyanja 60% mugihe kiri hagati ya 1992 na 2002 [2]. Akamaro ko gutwara abantu mu nyanja mu bukungu bw’isi bwagaragaye mu 2020 igihe umuyoboro wa Suez wahagarikwa igihe ubwato bwa kontineri Ever Given bwahagarara. Amahirwe yo gufungura inzira nshya za Arctique zitanga ibicuruzwa biva muri Aziya bikajya mu Burayi no muri Amerika ya Ruguru kubera igabanuka ry’ibarafu bizongera umuvuduko kandi bizana iterabwoba rishya kuri iyi miterere y’ibidukikije [3], byiyongera ku ngaruka zitaziguye z’ikirere cyihuse impinduka muri Arctique. Mubyukuri, ikigereranyo cyigihe cyo kohereza cyagaragaje kwiyongera 7% hagati ya 2013 na 2022 [4]. Gukurikirana ikoranabuhanga rifite uruhare runini mu gusesengura imigendekere y’amato mu nyanja, bituma umubare w’imyitwarire myinshi y’ubwato hamwe n’ingaruka z’ubukungu, politiki ndetse n’ibidukikije. Kurugero, gukurikirana amato yuburobyi byoroheje kwemeza ahantu hashyushye ibikorwa byuburobyi [5-7]. Byongeye kandi, guhuzagurika hagati y’inzira z’uburobyi no gukurikirana inyamaswa zo mu nyanja byagaragaje uturere dufite ibyago byinshi byo guhurira hamwe bityo bikaba bishobora guhura n’ubwato hagati y’amato y’uburobyi n’inyanja [8], hamwe n’impanuka zo guhura n’amato manini n’inyanja ya balale [ 9]. Kugeza ubu, ibicuruzwa biva mu bwato bukurikirana amakuru birahari kumugaragaro. Kurugero, ibicuruzwa byingenzi bya Global Fishing Watch bisobanura imbaraga zuburobyi ahantu harehare nigihe gito kwisi yose [5]. Nyamara, imibare yagutse, harimo nkurugero inzira yandi mato yubwato kwisi yose, iraboneka mugura wenyine. Kugira ngo dukemure ikibazo cyo gutunga amakuru no kugezwaho amakuru, harategurwa ingamba nshya zo gukora isesengura rya interineti hifashishijwe uburyo bwo gusukura mbere, gutunganywa mbere no kwemezwa na siyansi biva ahantu henshi. Muri iki cyerekezo HUB inyanja yateje imbere ihuriro ryamakuru yo mu nyanja (oceandata.earth), aho abahanga bashobora gukora isesengura rya interineti ryamakuru menshi asobanura ibintu bitandukanye byo mu nyanja, urugero nk'indwara ya parasite mu bworozi bw'amafi, ibyuka bihumanya isi cyangwa amakuru ya geospatial asobanura Uturere turinzwe. (MPAs). Hano, turatanga raporo yisesengura ryubwikorezi bwoherezwa ku nyanja ya Arctique hagati ya Mutarama 2020 na Mata 2022 dukoresheje isesengura ryamakuru ryakozwe ku cyumweru cyihariye cyo kureba ibyerekeye amakuru y’inyanja. II. GUSOBANURA DATA Ikoreshwa ryumwanya wubwato butambutsa inyanja ya Arctique bwatanzwe kuva muri Automatic Identification System (AIS). AIS ni sisitemu yatangijwe kumutekano wamazi utanga, mubintu bitandukanye bihinduka, umuvuduko, uburebure nuburebure bwubwato ukoresheje sisitemu. Ihuriro rya Data Data Platform yakusanyije amakuru ya AIS ikurikirana mugihe cyakemutse buri kwezi hamwe n’ikibanza kinini kandi ikerekana amasaha buri selire ya gride yoherejwe nubwato. Igihe cyo gutambutsa buri kwezi cyaboneka kuva muri Mutarama 2020 kugeza muri Mata 2022, kandi cyerekanaga ibyiciro bitanu by'ubwato (imizigo, uburobyi, abagenzi, tanker n'ibindi). Kubisesengura ryacu, twashyizeho gride yisi yose ya 0.1◦ × 0.1◦ ikemurwa, duhitamo uburebure buri hejuru yumuzingi wa Arctique (66.6◦, Ishusho 1). Ibinyabiziga byoherezwa. Igihe ubwihindurize bwakarere kegeranye ninzira zoherezwa bwujujwe na dataset yakoreshejwe mugusuzuma mbere yimodoka yoherezwa muri Arctique [10], kugirango itange igereranya ryamakuru ya Data Data Platform dataset kandi yerekana ihindagurika ryigihe kirekire ryi ubwikorezi bwo gutwara inyanja ya Arctique. Iyi dataset yabanjirije iyi yatangaje umubare wubwato buri kwezi bwagaragaye na sisitemu ya AIS muri buri selire ya 0.25◦ × 0.25◦, hagati ya Nyakanga 2010 na Gicurasi 2015. Agace k'ibarafu yo mu nyanja yakuwe ku rutonde rw'ibarafu yo mu nyanja, yatanzwe n'ikigo cy'igihugu gishinzwe amakuru ku rubura no mu rubura (Amerika) [11]. Iyi dataset yamenyesheje ubwihindurize buri kwezi agace k'urubura rwo mu nyanja mu gice cy'Amajyaruguru, hamwe n'uturere tumwe na tumwe twa Arctique, aho twasuzumaga agace ka Archipelago yo muri Kanada, Ikigobe cya Baffin n'Inyanja ya Beaufort ku nzira nyabagendwa yo mu majyaruguru y'uburengerazuba, mu gihe twatekerezaga kuri Inyanja ya Siberiya y'Iburasirazuba, Inyanja ya Kara n'Inyanja ya Barents yerekeza mu majyaruguru y'uburasirazuba. Igipfukisho c'inyanja. III. GUSESENGURA Ubwinshi bwubwikorezi bwabazwe nkigihe cyo gutambuka muri buri selire ya gride igabanijwe nigice cyakagari, ugereranya igihe cyubwato bwose bukoresha AIS mukarere kavuzwe. Iki gishushanyo cyerekanaga ahantu hashyushye ibikorwa byo kohereza, haba ku ikarita rusange ndetse no muburyo bwihariye bujyanye nibyiciro bitandukanye (Ishusho 1). Ubwato bwo kuroba bwerekanaga uruhare runini mu kohereza mu nyanja ya Arctique, cyane cyane mu nyanja ya Barents ariko no hafi ya Islande. Amato atwara imizigo, kimwe nubwato bwa tanker, yerekanaga imiterere aho twarebaga inzira zinyura mu majyaruguru yuburasirazuba n’amajyaruguru y’iburengerazuba, hamwe n’izindi zagutse mu kigobe cya Baffin, aho inzira za tanker zifata agace gake muri kano karere. Urujya n'uruza rw'abagenzi rwatwikiriye uduce duto two mu gace kuko inzira zagendaga ziba ngufi, urugero ku nkombe za Noruveje na Islande. Ubwinshi bw'ubwikorezi butandukanye mu kirere byasobanuwe no gukwirakwiza umurizo uremereye, ku buryo utugingo ngengabuzima twinshi twerekanaga ubwinshi bwo kohereza ibintu, hamwe na selile nkeya yibanda ku ndangagaciro nini (Ishusho 2). By'umwihariko, ubwinshi bwo kohereza ibicuruzwa byegeranijwe (mu byiciro) no ku byiciro byihariye byasobanuwe no gukwirakwiza imbaraga-amategeko. Twakoze amategeko-yimbaraga zo kugabura hamwe na python yamashanyarazi, tubona ibyerekanwe 1.79 (byegeranijwe), 1.49 (umugenzi), 1.90 (tanker), 1.74 (imizigo) na 1.96 (uburobyi). Kuburobyi, twabonye ubutegetsi bubiri, aho isaranganya ryegereye isaranganya rimwe ryubucucike buke (ni ukuvuga hamwe n’ibintu bito bito), mugihe ubucucike bunini bwerekanaga kugabanuka byihuse, aribwo imyitwarire yafashwe no gusubira inyuma. Mu ncamake, icyitegererezo kidafite ishingiro urebye inkomoko-yerekanwe, hamwe ninkomoko ihamye hamwe nuburyo bumwe bwo kugera aho igana cyangwa ibinyuranye, biganisha ku gukwirakwiza kimwe murwego rumwe, mugihe ikwirakwizwa riremereye cyane hamwe niyerekana 3 mu bipimo bibiri. Kugirango tumenye inzira zo kohereza, twabaze impuzandengo yo kohereza ibicuruzwa muburebure, urebye gusa selile ya gride ifite agaciro katari zeru, kandi tugereranya ubwinshi bwubwikorezi bwa buri selire ya gride, ni ukuvuga ubwinshi bwubwikorezi bugabanijwe nuburinganire bwubwikorezi bwabwo uburebure (reba Uburyo). Twabonye ko indangagaciro zisumba izindi ziri hafi yinkombe (Ishusho 3). Ubu buhanga bwerekanaga inzira nyamukuru zo kohereza (koridoro itukura ku gishushanyo cya 3), hamwe n’ahantu henshi ho kuroba mu nyanja ndende. Twabonye inzira ebyiri nyamukuru zo kohereza Arctique, inzira y’amajyaruguru y’amajyaruguru n’amajyaruguru y’iburengerazuba, byombi bihuza inyanja ya pasifika y’amajyaruguru n’inyanja ya Atalantika y'Amajyaruguru, inzira y’amajyaruguru y’iburasirazuba igabanyijemo kabiri mu majyaruguru no mu majyepfo y’ibirwa bya Lyakhovsky. Imodoka nyinshi zinzira zombi zajyanaga na tanker hamwe nubwato butwara imizigo, nkuko bigaragazwa no kuba hatabayeho umwanya uhoraho unyura mumihanda yubwato bwabagenzi nuburobyi, biteganijwe ko buzerekana ingendo ndende. Nyuma yo gusesengura imiterere yimiterere yubwinshi bwubwikorezi kuri dataset yegeranijwe hamwe no mubyiciro bitandukanye byubwato, twibanze ku ihindagurika ryigihe gito ryimodoka zitwara abantu, duhuriza hamwe ibyakurikiranwe hirya no hino muri Arctique. Ubwikorezi bwinshi bwoherezwa mu gihe cyose bwahuye n’ubwato bw’uburobyi bwakurikijwe, uko byagabanutse, hamwe n’abagenzi, imizigo hamwe n’ibikamyo (Ishusho 4). Mu gihe ubwihindurize bugereranije bw’uburobyi n’ubwato butwara abagenzi butagaragaje ihindagurika rinini ugereranije, ubwikorezi bwo gutwara imizigo hamwe n’ibikamyo bwerekanaga ibikorwa byinshi mu cyi no mu itumba ryo mu ntangiriro za 2020 na 2021. Hanyuma, twagereranije ubwihindurize bwigihe kirekire bw’inzira y’amajyaruguru y’iburengerazuba n’inzira y’amajyaruguru y’iburasirazuba hamwe na dataset yuzuzanya yasobanuye umubare w’amato adasanzwe yagaragaye kuri buri selire ya 0.25◦ × 0.25◦ hagati ya Nyakanga 2010 na Gicurasi 2015. Kugira ngo tugereranye na dataset yacu, twabonye ubugari bwinzira yubwato dukurikiza inzira imwe nkuko byasobanuwe haruguru, ariko urebye ingano ya selile ingana, ni ukuvuga selile zifite 0.25◦ kuruhande. Twabonye uburyo busa mumyaka itandukanye mugihe cyamajyaruguru yuburengerazuba, mugihe inzira yuburaruko bushira ubuseruko yerekanaga igabanuka ryagaciro ryayo ntarengwa kuri dataset iheruka, hamwe no kwiyongera mugihe iyo nzira yerekanaga ibikorwa bigaragara (Ishusho. 7). IV. IKIGANIRO Kuboneka kwamakuru kubidukikije byo mu nyanja, urugero inzira zinyamaswa cyangwa ibangamira ubuzima bwo mu nyanja [13], amateka yagiye agarukira mu mateka atandukanye namakuru asobanura inzira zibera ku butaka. Ariko, impinduka za paradigima ziva mubaturage hamwe n’ibigo bitera inkunga siyanse bigamije politiki yo guhanahana amakuru bihindurwa kenshi mu makuru yo mu nyanja. Ni muri urwo rwego, imbuga za interineti zegeranya, zisukura, kandi zisanzwe zerekana imibare myinshi yerekana inyungu nyinshi zo guteza imbere ubumenyi bw’inyanja [14, 15]. Byongeye kandi, kuboneka kwa seriveri kubara kumurongo bizana impinduka kuri demokarasi yo kubona amakuru gusa, ariko kandi nibikoresho byo kubara kugirango bitunganyirize amakuru manini. Ni muri urwo rwego, twateje imbere isesengura ry’imodoka zoherejwe na Arctique nta kiguzi dukoresheje inyanja Data Connector yo mu nyanja ya HUB, mu cyumweru cyihariye cyo kureba. Isesengura rirerire ry’imodoka zitwara abantu mu majyaruguru y’iburasirazuba n’amajyaruguru y’iburengerazuba bwanyuze kuri FIG. 5. Imihindagurikire yigihe cyubwikorezi bwoherezwa kuburebure. Umwanya wo hejuru ugereranya impuzandengo yo kohereza hejuru ya selile hamwe na non-null yoherejwe kuri buri burebure, mugihe hepfo yerekana uburebure bwigice cya selile. Ibyinjira byera byerekana kubura traffic. Imirongo yumukara mumwanya wo hejuru ihagarara kuburebure twahisemo nkuhagarariye cyane mugupima inzira zamajyaruguru yuburasirazuba n’amajyaruguru yuburengerazuba inzira, 150º na -90º. uburyo buteganijwe ibihe byinzira zombi, byerekana impinduka nke kuri Passage y'Amajyaruguru. Nyamara, Inzira y'Amajyaruguru y'Uburasirazuba yerekanaga igabanuka rya vuba ku bugari ntarengwa bw'inzira, hamwe n'imyitwarire miremire y'ibihe, ni ukuvuga inzira yari ndende, ariko ikoreshwa binyuze mu gice kinini cy'umwaka. Inzitizi z’ibanze, iz’akarere ndetse n’amahanga kugirango zigabanye ikwirakwizwa rya COVID-19, ku zisanzwe zitwa “antropropase” [16, 17], zuzuyemo igihe kinini twasesenguye, bivuze ko igabanuka ry’ibiciro by’umusaruro w’uruganda, kandi birashoboka sobanura uku kugabanuka kwubugari bwinzira yuburaruko bushira ubuseruko, kuko kugabanuka kwimodoka kwotera ubwato bukurikira inzira zegereye inzira nziza, ukurikije intera, urebye inzitizi zose z’imiterere n’ibidukikije (urubura). Nkako, isesengura ryakozwe ku isi ryerekanye ko igabanuka rya 1,4% ku bantu batwara ibinyabiziga mu mezi ya mbere y’icyorezo, cyane cyane mu majyaruguru y’isi [18]. Kugabanuka k'urubura rwo mu nyanja mu nyanja ya Arctique hamwe n'ubushyuhe bwihuse bwa Arctique byerekana amahirwe yo guhuza inzira zo kohereza, kugabanya igihe cyo gutambuka n'ibiciro bityo rero, imyuka ihumanya ikirere. Ariko, uku kwiyongera kwimodoka zoherejwe na Arctique birashobora kuba intandaro y "kwihuta kwubururu" [19] kuri Arctique, bikabangamira amoko yinyanja atigeze ahura nibibazo byoherezwa [20], nko gukubita ubwato [21] cyangwa mumazi. urusaku [22], usibye izindi mpungenge nk’umwanda umaze kugaragara [23, 24]. Ku rundi ruhande, kuba inzira nshya zo kohereza zishobora kwerekana ibitekerezo bishingiye ku muntu ku bijyanye n'ubushyuhe bukabije ku isi, bikagabanya imyuka iva mu bwato bitewe no gukoresha inzira ngufi [25]. Izi ngingo nziza kandi mbi zerekana akamaro ko gusesengura amakuru kugirango ikurikirane kandi icunge urujya n'uruza rwa Arctique, bifasha kugabanya ingaruka z’ibidukikije. V. UBURYO Amakuru yibanze yatangaga igihe cyo gutwarwa mumasoko akomeye ya gride yubwato bufite ibikoresho bya AIS, harimo ubwato bwose bwo gutambuka no gucikamo ibice bine byubwato, uburobyi, abagenzi, imizigo na tanker. Twakusanyije utugingo ngengabuzima twinshi cyane kuri gride selile zingana 0.1◦ × 0.1◦. Twabonye ubwinshi bwubwikorezi bugabanya igihe cyo kohereza ibicuruzwa mukarere ka selire A: Ubwinshi bwo kohereza. aho R = 6371 km ni Isi radiyo, ϕ nuburinganire bwa dogere, na ∆λ na ∆ϕ biri, kimwe, impande ndende na latitudinal ya selile muri dogere. Turagereranya impuzandengo yo kohereza ibicuruzwa muburebure nkubunini bwigihe cyo kohereza ibicuruzwa byose byanyuze muri selile zifite uburebure bumwe, bigabanijwe nubuso bwizo selile hamwe nigihe cyo gutambuka kitari zeru, gikurikira Eq. 7. Kubwihindurize bwigihe cyagaciro (Igishusho 5, hejuru), kuri buri ntambwe tureba gusa selile zifite igihe cyo gutambuka kitari zeru muri kiriya gihe cyihariye. Impuzandengo yo kohereza ibicuruzwa kuri buri burebure. Twihweje ingirabuzimafatizo zose zo mu karere ka Arctique hamwe n'uburebure bwihariye λ, kandi tubara igihe ubwihindurize bw’umubare w'utugingo N (λ, t) twerekanye igihe cyo gutambuka kitari zeru. Twabaze ubugari bwinzira W (λ, t) nkuburebure bwa latitudinal cross-section ya selile: Ubugari bw'inzira kuri buri burebure. VI. ITANGAZO A. Inkunga JPR yatewe inkunga na gahunda ya Formacion ya Juan de la Cierva (Ref. FJC2019-040622-I) yatewe inkunga na MCIN / AEI / 10.13039 / 501100011033. JPR yahawe inkunga n’ikigo cy’ubushakashatsi cya Espagne MCIN / AEI / 10.13039 / 501100011033 binyuze mu mushinga MISLAND (PID2020-114324GB-C22). Ubu bushakashatsi bushyigikiwe na Mar´ıa de Maeztu Excellence Unit 2023-2027 Refs. CEX2021-001201- M na CEX2021-001164-M, yatewe inkunga na MCIN / AEI /10.13039/501100011033. B. Umusanzu wumwanditsi JPR: Kwiyumvisha ibintu, Gukosora amakuru, Isesengura ryemewe, Porogaramu, Kubona, Kwandika: Inyandiko y'umwimerere. KK: Isesengura ryemewe, Kwandika: Gusubiramo & Guhindura. CMD: Gutekereza, Kwandika: Gusubiramo & Guhindura. VME: Ibitekerezo, Isesengura ryemewe, Kwandika: Inyandiko yumwimerere. VII. 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