It’s that time of the year again, so we’re talking a bit about the famous Christmas Carol by Charles Dickens. This story follows the miserly Ebenezer Scrooge as he’s dragged through his own timeline by three ghosts (from the past, the present, and the future) who refuse to let him look away from what matters. We can apply that journey to crypto as well. Crypto is a very speculative asset class, and this industry has a very unique past that was filled with many lessons, a present that has a lot of conflicting views and opinions, and a future that we can still create. Now that we’re at the end of the year and the holidays are upon us, it’s a good time to reflect on crypto by taking a journey into the shadows of the industry and looking at where we have come from, where we are today, and where we have the potential to go. Ghost of Crypto Past: Lessons From Bitcoin’s Beginnings In 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto published a paper that laid out a very simple but very ambitious vision for the future of money. The paper was titled "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System," and it presented a way for people to transfer value directly to each other without the need for any banks or intermediaries. Something called a cryptocurrency —a currency built with cryptography. Satoshi Nakamoto Satoshi Nakamoto It was the first functional decentralized coin ever, but the ideal already existed. A couple of decades before, the cypherpunkswere trading thoughts on privacy, cryptography, and P2P money as if they were passing around secret blueprints for the future. Satoshi didn’t come out of nowhere: he stepped into a conversation that had been going on for years. It was the first functional decentralized coin ever, but the ideal already existed. the cypherpunks That ideal was popularized after Bitcoin, though. The genesis block served as a foundational point for all of those who believed in the concept of creating a form of money that was independent of government control or financial institutions, and would be used by the common man. However, the first few years had quite a few obstacles along the way. Bitcoin Past Shadows The huge collapse of Mt. Gox and other early exchanges showed the limitations of the industry, including how centralized exchanges utilized extremely questionable custody practices, a lack of security measures, and operated off of centralized points of failure. Mt. Gox Mt. Gox Following that came the boom of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) in 2017. There was a lot of excitement regarding the number of new tokens being created and their potential they might have. However, the burst in the following year (2018) caused a great deal of losses for many investors. As a community, we learned that code can help maintain asset security, but without governance, trust, and infrastructure, there will remain some level of fragility amongst them. ICOs ICOs s a community, we learned that code can help maintain asset security, but without governance, trust, and infrastructure, there will remain some level of fragility amongst them. During the period of 2019-2024, the crypto industry went through its teenage phase, with Bitcoin reaching several highs and then experiencing multiple crashes. DeFi grew exponentially around 2020, and the NFTs exploded onto the scene in 2021, with items like pixel art being priced at properties similar to mansions. In 2022, the entire ecosystem took a massive reality check due to significant collapses, such as the demise of Terra and FTX. Terra and FTX Terra and FTX Heading into the years of 2023 and 2024, the market settled down, regulators began circling the industry, the launch of Crypto ETFs took place, and the builders (the majority of this market) continued to build. It’s been quite messy, very loud, and very "out there", but also the most productive growth spurt crypto has ever had. A Decade of Holiday Prices We’ve seen a lot of this wild growth in Christmas. Looking at Bitcoin holiday data reveals something interesting: we’ve had only two bad years out of the last ten. We chose to look at Bitcoin, especially, because it’s the coin that still dominates the market, so it's a great indicator of what's happening in crypto, in general. The past ten years, without needing to go any further, will be enough to serve as an indicator. Bitcoin’s December 25 prices and overall market valuations in the last decade go as follows: in 2014, BTC traded around $320, market cap was modest. By 2017, the Christmas price soared to about $14,146, and the market cap exploded. The 2018 winter brought it down to roughly $3,881. In 2020, the price rose again to ~$24,165. Bitcoin’s December 25 prices and overall market valuations in the last decade go as follows market valuations market valuations By Christmas 2021, BTC hovered near $50,654, and its crypto market cap reached over $2 trillion. The 2022 slump dragged the price to ~$16,801. In 2023, a rebound brought BTC to ~$37,800; while 2024 closed the year with a dramatic ~$99,000 for BTC and a total crypto market cap around $3.4 trillion. There’s context with each Christmas snapshot. The boom period in 2017 was based on speculation and experimental projects. The bear market of 2018 was caused by the dramatic fall in hype around crypto assets and the increasing regulatory pressure. The Bull market of 2020-2021 was built upon the macroeconomic shifts due to the Pandemic and the availability of new liquidity as a result of Government stimulus. There’s context with each Christmas snapshot. The boom period in 2017 was based on speculation and experimental projects. The crypto market decline in 2022 was the fallout from major companies going bankrupt. The peak in 2023-2024 was influenced by the increasing number of institutional investors entering the space, more mainstream adoption of crypto, more favorable regulations being implemented, and the resurgence of confidence in the future of the industry. We can see that crypto isn’t just a technology experiment; it continues to evolve in the market and in response to the demands of macroeconomics and human behavior. Ghost of Crypto Present: The Current State of the Industry Today, the space feels more mature than it ever has before, and several smart-contract platforms and decentralized finance (DeFi) projects are thriving. Consumers are now able to trade, lend, stake (and restake), and borrow from each other directly in crypto and are able to do so without needing banks. Several different projects are leveraging crypto and AI tools to allow developers to monetize their work through the use of AI algorithms or allow users to create their own AI agents. Several different projects are leveraging crypto and AI tools to allow developers to monetize their work through the use of AI algorithms or allow users to create their own AI agents. use of AI algorithms use of AI algorithms AI agents AI agents Crypto is now seen as being not as much about speculative investing as it is about creating, innovating, and testing new financial and technological products. https://youtu.be/Yqp58S1RKSk?si=FTNrqZzYfLHePiLU&embedable=true https://youtu.be/Yqp58S1RKSk?si=FTNrqZzYfLHePiLU&embedable=true Institutions that once viewed crypto as a passing fad are now allocating meaningful capital, driven by diversification, inflation hedging, and evolving regulation. At least 83% of them are planning to get into crypto. Some of them are embracing tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs), stablecoins, and on-chain settlement systems. Institutions Institutions RWAs RWAs At the same time, the landscape has grown more complex. Many popular infrastructures remain centralized: exchanges, custody providers, gateways to “real money.” Crypto regulation is present worldwide, likely in most countries already. As the industry becomes mainstream, we’re finding more compliance requirements, identity verification, and oversight. in most countries already in most countries already Crypto now juggles between its radical roots and the practical demands of large-scale adoption. The present ghost is one of maturity: progress paired with tradeoffs. Centralization is currently not only working with our decentralized ideals, but maybe trying to eat them. Crypto now juggles between its radical roots and the practical demands of large-scale adoption. trying to eat them trying to eat them Ghost of Crypto Future: What Comes Next? The upcoming chapter of crypto may change global finances. Tokenization of real-world assets (bonds, real estate, private credit) continues to rise at exponential rates. Conservative estimates indicate that the market for tokenized RWAs reached $23 billion early in 2025, a growth of 260% from the prior year. If that trend continues, it’s expected that digital asset platforms will become increasingly utilized as avenues for traditional financial instruments. Funds that once lived offline may become programmable tokens, traded globally 24/7. estimates estimates Many analysts believe that what follows for the crypto industry may include an increased emphasis on regulatory quickness, increased speed of technological innovations, and increased integration of tokens into the daily lives of retail consumers. During a WEF meeting in Davos, several speakers assured that many governments are still trying to understand crypto. Many analysts believe that what follows for the crypto industry may include an increased emphasis on regulatory quickness, increased speed of technological innovations, and increased integration of tokens into the daily lives of retail consumers. several speakers several speakers They also pointed out that the development of stronger regulations in the U.S. would lead to similar rules in many of the other larger industrialized economies. Other uses, such as humanitarian aid transfers that arrive within minutes, were also mentioned. For their part, different sources have shared how major crypto networks may turn into unglamorous “financial plumbing,” with tokenization and settlement happening quietly in the background. You wouldn’t even notice them. They also stated that Bitcoin could be moving closer to legacy stores of value (as gold) in the long run, and altcoins and memecoins might stick around as institutions package them into new products. have shared have shared memecoins memecoins Yet, the future is a fickle thing. Global regulation could still turn sour. The allure of transparency may clash with demands for surveillance and control. Centralized stablecoins, CBDCs, and heavy-compliance infrastructures risk turning crypto into another corner of regulated finance. The decision between decentralization and centralization (between permissionless access and institutional sophistication) might define the next decade. Centralized stablecoins Centralized stablecoins CBDCs CBDCs Which Ghosts Should We Listen To? The ghost of the past has shown us that while cryptography can prevent the collapse of a system, it cannot be used alone. We need to ensure that adequate measures, such as strong custodial options and trusted governance, are in place so that the promise of a new crypto economy doesn't disappear into thin air. The present has shown us tremendous scale, integration, and adoption into the mainstream of finance, but also reminds us that crypto is no longer limited to a group of dreamers. We’re now at a very important juncture where we can go down two different paths. One path allows for greater access to digital assets for all; the other path could lead us down the same road as the old economies, where centralized control, surveillance, and compliance are just as prevalent as before. One path allows for greater access to digital assets for all; the other path could lead us down the same road as the old economies Many crypto networks are leaning toward centralized control and censorship, while there are still many that remain true to their cypherpunk heritage. One of the latter is Obyte, which operates on a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) that has neither miners nor “validators”. This provides higher decentralization and greater freedom. However, anyone can create their own customized tokens, regulated or not. and censorship and censorship cypherpunk heritage cypherpunk heritage Obyte Obyte customized tokens customized tokens In the end, the choice is only ours. If we draw from past mistakes and current opportunities to demand decentralization, privacy, and user sovereignty, crypto could fulfill its early promise as a tool of empowerment. If we lean into centralization and forget what once set crypto apart, we might end up recreating the same old systems under a new name. The ghosts are silent unless we listen. Featured Vector Image by Freepik Featured Vector Image by Freepik Freepik
