Predictions for this 2018 in Virtual reality

As every year, I love to make fancy predictions about the future of virtual reality: I’m that I like daydreaming what I’ll be able to try in the upcoming months. so passionate about this technology Regarding VR, we have seen a bazillion of interesting (and sometimes) unexpected … and this year has begun in the right way, with the announcement of the . I’d like to take all these data from the past year and in 2017 news Vive Pro try to make some predictions for 2018. I’ll divide this post into various topics of interest and for every topic, I’ll say what has happened in 2017 and hence my predictions for 2018. Let’s start! Standalone headsets Vive China president Alvin Wang Graylin presents the Vive Focus on the stage (Image by HTC Vive) We all know this: 2018 will be the year of standalone headsets. : Intel (that has shown and later on abandoned its ), Qualcomm (with the Snapdragon 835 VR reference design), HTC Vive (that has announced at the end of the year the ), Pico (that has revealed the ), Google (that should release , called with the cool name of “Mirage Solo”) and especially Facebook/Oculus (that has teased ). In 2017, a lot of companies have started investing in the standalone form factor Alloy project Vive Focus Pico Neo a headset of this kind with Lenovo its cheap Oculus Go and Oculus Santa Cruz The reasons for such interest in the standalone form factor are that standalones are: : you just put the headset on your head and you’re ready to go, without installations and other complications; Easy to be used : since they remove the cable, that is one of the biggest nuisances of current VR experiences; Comfortable : you just need to carry one device with you; Portable : since the price of a single standalone is inferior to the one of a tethered headset + VR ready PC. Rather cheap So, companies are investing in this new form factor because and that are preventing VR from becoming mainstream. it solves a lot of problems that current VR has A user while playing with a Pico Neo and its two controllers (Image by Pico) : all the above announced headsets . They’ll come with : (only $200), but it will have very limited functionalities: being only a 3DOF headset, it will be good only for watching movies and trying casual games and ; , but it will offer interactions only through a 3 DOF remote; , that will be the first headset to use Google Worldsense tracking technology, is very similar to Vive Focus regarding its functionalities and uses Daydream platform; 2018 will be the year of standalone devices will be shipped in 2018 different flavors Oculus Go will be ultracheap social VR experiences Vive Focus will offer you 6 DOF The just announced Lenovo Mirage Solo with a 6 DOF headset and controllers: of course these features will make these devices more expensive. Pico Neo and Oculus Santa Cruz are the only ones offering complete freedom of movements and interactions These are just the most popular ones: if … considering that Microsoft has already produced a standalone AR headset with 6DOF tracking as , I wouldn’t find that strange . Furthermore, let’s all remember that , that is optimized for AR and VR: I envision them creating a new for next generation standalone VR headsets and this will lead to the creation of new and more powerful devices. standalone form factor will prove successful, surely other companies will invest in it HoloLens if it created a reference design for standalone Windows 10 VR headsets Qualcomm has just announced its Snapdragon 845 chipset Snapdragon 845 VR reference design While the devices will be a lot, I think that most of them will serve very few software ecosystems: Oculus’s ones will use ; all the Chinese ones will use while all the other Western ones will use Furthermore, most of them will be just based on the Snapdragon reference design. Oculus Home Viveport, Daydream. The Vive Focus device, with its two available colors. They should be released in the Western market too, even if it is not completely sure (Image by HTC Vive) So, in 2018 VR will go standalone and . I mean, there is too much confidence towards standalone headsets and someone thinks that thanks to standalone HMDs, virtual reality will finally reach the mainstream success it deserves. I have a different opinion: : in my personal opinion, the standalone bubble will burst I think that the standalone form factor is very very interesting… but I also think it has problems that will prevent it from becoming mainstream : when buying a for your Samsung phone or a for your phone, you’re buying an affordable viewer for a fantastic phone. , like shooting amazing videos, playing games and chatting with friends. You’re spending a lot of money for the whole VR system, but . The : my VR-ready PC has been very expensive, but I can use it also for fast developing and video editing. . And : all my friends ask me what VR is useful for, they have no idea why they should buy a VR headset. Even more, . So, why they should spend $200 to buy an Oculus Go device? Just to watch some 360 videos? Let’s all remember that Oculus Go is like a Gear VR and most Gear VR devices are taking dust on the shelf of their owners; It is too VR-oriented Gear VR Daydream viewer Pixel 2 You can use that phone to do a lot of other stuff you have a general purpose device same holds for a PC An all-in-one VR system is just a VR system, so you can use it only to do VR the general consumer has no idea why he/she should be interested in Virtual Reality they have no idea why they should use THE FREE CARDBOARD HEADSET that someone has given them Oculus Go device render (Image by Oculus) : what can convince people to buy VR? The possibility to feel amazing adventures like shooting robots in or feel deep emotions like in . The problem is that : they have a limited computational power and problems of battery consumption and overheating. Some of them, especially the cheapest ones, … so can only offer a decent VR experience. They can’t make you drop your jaw because the premium experiences require a more powerful hardware (so a tethered headset), so people can’t be taken to buy a standalone headset driven by their emotions; Performances are mediocre Robo Recall Dear Angelica these devices can’t allow that have even limited interaction features : Vive Focus costs $600 (considering Chinese taxes), the Pico costs more than $700 and I think that Oculus Santa Cruz will have a similar price. So, apart from the really basic 3DOF headsets like Oculus Go (and Pico Goblin), : a that works with almost any laptop costs less than that. It is not that cheap the price is not that low Windows Mixed Reality headset The Pico Goblin 3DOF Standalone headset: it is basically a Chinese Oculus Go: so, it has limited functionalities, but it is also very very cheap (Image by Pico) , both between (I think they could be amazing for exhibitions, for instance) and (some of them will finally be able to afford a complete VR headset). . I think that the prediction of Oculus that Go will sell more than Rift but less than Gear VR is a realistic one. Of course, I hope to be proven wrong because I love VR! My prediction is that standalone will sell well professionals VR enthusiasts They’ll sell millions of devices, but won’t make VR become mainstream Wireless adapters . The Chinese company (backed by HTC) has already sold in 2017 various units in pre-orders to make the Vive and the Rift wireless and Vive ones are already on sale. : after an enthusiastic review by UploadVR, various users have reported on Reddit that when the device works, it works like a charm, but setting it up in the optimal way is far from easy (to not say that it is a pain in the a…). In 2018, we’ll also see more wireless adapters for virtual reality headsets TPCast The problem is that this device is still not that easy to set up That’s why TPCast has announced at this CES an upgraded version of this device and also a completely new version to be released later this year. HTC Vive with TPCAST Wireless adapter on (Image by HTC) The just announced is based exactly on this technology and will surely among professionals using a Vive. Intel and DisplayLink have already shown their alternative solution , that should be released at the beginning of this year. Vive Wireless Adapter prove to be successful And I bet that even in this field if these wireless solutions will prove to have interest, more players will enter the market. , starting from the easiness of the setup and the battery duration: Intel claims that the battery of its solution lasts 2 hours, that is a bit too few for a long VR gaming session or even for an exhibition. Regarding the resolution of the transmitted image stream, according to an article on , Surely the competition will be beneficial to improve the issues of such wireless adapters Upload VR we’ll have to wait for 2019 to have the 802.11AY Wi-fi protocol to be able to transmit 4K per eye. Wireless adapters are cool because free the users from the cable while still having amazing performances due to the VR-ready PC still doing all the required computations, but So I think that these first versions will be used mostly by In 2018 they won’t be consumer-friendly yet. they add cost and complexity to the setup of the VR systems. professionals, gamers, and enthusiasts. Mobile headsets Honestly, I don’t know what to say about this category: . will be sold or given for free, will be announced for the new Samsung flagship phones and for the new Daydream-ready phones. it will continue the same trend it has had in the past years A lot of cardboards new Gear VRs new Daydream viewers will come The new model of Daydream View (Image by Road To VR) I think that we’ll see two new models of Gear VRs and one of Daydream view. But, honestly, my opinion is that … the problem of mobile headsets is that there’s not that much that they can do: they’re just two lenses to use VR with a phone, so they can’t add features. They can improve how they dissipate heat, they can become more comfortable, but that’s it. : in this case, we may have 6DOF mobile headsets and this can be a game changer. IMHO, this won’t happen now, especially considering the fact that current Daydream View has no hole for the phone camera… but, maybe in 2019, this can be a possibility. This would blend even more the line between standalone and mobile headsets, that at the moment use exactly the same software platforms. these devices will be almost identical to the ones that we’ve seen in this year The only revolution may arrive if a company like Google will start using ARCore to perform the positional tracking of Daydream viewers The dirty and cheap cardboard will probably still be the most sold VR device of 2018 . I’ve seen analysts forecasting that the more we’ll go on, the more people will prefer standalone or tethered headsets and ignore the poorly performant cardboards, but in my opinion, times are still not ready for that. I think that mobile headsets will still be the most shipped VR devices of 2018 Tethered headsets 2018 will be the year that tethered headsets will lose the spotlight on the stage, in favor of their standalone siblings. But this won’t mean that they’ll lose importance. , like: In 2017 we’ve seen some important events regarding tethered headsets , a premium headset with an enormous 200° FOV and a fantastic 2*4K resolution; The announcement of the Pimax 8K The reveal of a headset with a ; super-high resolution in the center of vision announced by Varjo , new cheap headsets that are very easy to be set up thanks to their inside-out tracking technology; The release of the Windows Mixed Reality headsets that has made possible for a lot of people to enter VR. As a consequence of that, even and Sony has performed a similar operation; The enormous price drop of the Oculus Rift HTC has lowered the price of the Vive The ; 2-million sales mark reached by PSVR The announcement of Valve of a and (the ). new tracking technology new ergonomic VR controllers Knuckles New Valve’s Knuckles controllers. They’re surely an evolution over the current Vive VR Controllers(Image by Cloudhead games) In 2018 I think we’ll see a lot of interesting things. First of all, (especially the ones of Vive and of the MS headsets) and this will make , even if they’ll be lower than the ones of untethered headsets. , thanks to its cheap price and its ability to work out of the box with every PS4 (and there are 70+ million in the world). I’d also bet that Microsoft will make its move and will announce that . prices will continue to drop the sales of VR headsets to grow PSVR will still be the leader in the market its VR headsets can work with its Xbox console (especially Oculus and HTC) . We’ve seen with Oculus “Summer Of Rift” discount that price is a very important component for VR and so these companies have no interest in releasing a $1000 v2 tethered headset that would have no market. The big players will continue selling their present devices You may think that , but actually it is just an upgrade of current Vive (so it is more a v1.5 than a v2) and (hence the name “Pro”) and not at a wide consumer target. Furthermore, this will let HTC , that will so be able to compete better with Oculus on the consumer market. the just announced Vive Pro is against this statement it is clearly aimed at professionals lower the price of the original Vive So, as I’ve already discussed in another post, to release a new affordable and innovative new version of their headsets. But Oculus IMHO , for instance. I think that the v2 versions will be priced at launch around $400-$500 (controllers included) and will be very easy to be used and set-up (apart from offering a brand new set of features, of course). I think they’ll wait for 2019 I also think that they’ll announce it in 2018: will announce the CV2 during the Oculus Connect 5 Since the big players will wait, : Pimax and Varjo will be there, selling their (the Pimax 8K X requires a graphics card that is not on the market yet!). So, little companies will propose high-end products for high-end professionals, while it’s time for the little players to propose something innovative high-performance devices for a high price the big companies will start aiming at mainstream adoption. A nice girl playing with the Pimax 8K. Full scale tracking is included. (Image by Pimax) LG will release its Ultragear VR headset and the Valve’s ecosystem . Maybe Valve will finally deploy its Steam VR Tracking 2.0 technology with this device or with the next Vive. will see the first device using SteamVR tracking along with the Vive (that will soon become two because of the Pimax 8K) I’m going to write a post dedicated to it: it has been defeated on the hardware side by the optimal tracking and ergonomic controllers offered by Rift and Vive and on the software side by Steam VR. A last word about the OSVR/Razer HDK project: I think that after a slow death in 2017, it will be officially declared dead in 2018. Accessories The accessories of VR devices will continue the current trend: (you can read about some of them in my post about ). Some examples that we’ve seen in 2017 and that we’ll continue seeing in 2018 are: there will be a lot and will serve different purposes virtual reality gift ideas Haptic gloves; Vests; Scent emitters (like ); VAQSO Brainwave readers (as ); Neurable Eye tracking systems (as Tobii); VR lenses and lenses adapters (as the ones offered by ); WIDMOvr Guns and other props (powered by systems as the ); Vive Trackers Treadmills; Special controllers (as the ); 3dRudder Cable management systems; VR bags and suitcases; Etc… . Talking about accessories would require a dedicated super-long post about them. I just want to highlight here that most (but not all) of them will try to serve : I think that in 2018 we’ll see more and more accessories, of every kind, for every price mostly three purposes , through the inclusion of additional senses (as VAQSO that will add the sense of smell to VR devices); Offer a better immersion of the user (as Tobii that will let you use eye gaze as a selection mechanism); Offer a better interaction of the user with the VR ecosystem (as the lens adapters that let people with eye problems use VR). Increase the comfort of the user A user playing using VAQSO scents emitter. As you can see the device is very little and fits easily under the headset (image by VAQSO) Most of the above-specified devices (VAQSO, Neurable, etc…) have been announced in 2017 but . I also think that Valve will start selling its Knuckles controllers in this year: since they can work with current Lighthouse stations, . Since more headsets will start using SteamVR tracking technologies, we will start seeing a rise in the number of SteamVR-dedicated accessories. will most probably be released in 2018, so 2018 will be a great year to buy VR accessories they could be sold as separate controllers for all the headsets using SteamVR tracking More accessories will mean a , both at home and at arcades. And the combined use of various accessories together may make the VR experience a lot cooler. more customized and an improved VR experience for everyone Content . How many times have you heard this sentence? Well, there is a reason, for sure. “Content is the king” As I’ve highlighted when I talked about standalone virtual reality headsets, A lot of people keep talking about the magical , that will make everyone run to the stores to buy a VR headset… but let’s be honest, this is just people have no idea why they should buy a VR device because they don’t find it useful enough. VR killer application Exactly (image from Know Your Meme) What we need is: ; More and more content : most VR applications are just games or storytelling experiences. We need more social tools, more creators’ tools, more educational tools, more working tools, etc… Furthermore, even in gaming, we need : so fewer zombie shooters and more games for ; More diversified content games tailored to different kinds of people women : AAA games and highly polished programs. Tilt brush commercial has been seen by millions of people and everyone dropped his/her jaw; More high-quality content : talking about games, brands like Fallout, FIFA, CS, Assassin’s, Super Mario, etc… are able to attract a lot of people. More popular brands : some great examples have been the release of a great creation tool like , of a high-quality VR-exclusive game as Robo Recall and of . These three last ones have been good games, but all of them were just VR-portings of the standard PC games and showed themselves as products full of compromises. In 2017 we made a lot of steps forward in this sense Google Blocks three games with a huge brand like Fallout 4, Skyrim and Doom VFR : Valve should release 3 games dedicated to VR and Oculus should do the same with the VR wargame it has funded. . Oculus announced in 2017 that it would have risen the bar of funded content, so it would have begun to fund bigger projects, so … so maybe the price of an average indie VR game will rise from $9.99 to $14.99. Unluckily, I still think that and that the exclusivities will continue for the whole year. In 2018 I think we’ll continue seeing this trend I think we’ll see more VR portings of AAA games, but still not AAA games made specifically for VR I think that we’ll start seeing longer and higher quality content games will be the majority of content sold on the VR stores Regarding off-store experiences, : it is and I think that and new dedicated websites and apps will pop up every day. The quality of the proposed video and the type of the offered experiences will increase a lot, too. And apart from adult-oriented videos, also , becoming longer and of a higher quality. In 2017 we had , the first medium-length VR movie and I think that in 2018 we can reach even longer durations, as long as let’s not forget VR porn currently the most viewed VR content on the web in 2018 its offerings will increase other kinds of storytelling experiences and movies will evolve Miyubi creators will understand how to create a VR video properly and they will be given the tools to create easier such kind of experiences. I think that at the end of 2018, the content available for VR will be good enough and far better than the one available now and this will make people more interested to VR. Regarding the general population, . young males will be the category of people that will find VR appealing the most Of course I’m talking about consumer-content. , with applications for education, training, rehabilitation, psychology, marketing, art and other 1000 possible usages that will start becoming pretty popular. The professional use of Virtual Reality in my opinion will skyrocket in 2018 WebVR WebVR Logo : in and frameworks like A-Frame have become pretty popular, while other ones like Amazon Sumerian have been announced but have still not been released. The problem is that and not supported very well by all platforms. A special mention about WebVR content 2017 we’ve seen a growing interest towards WebVR WebVR is still rough In 2018 because this will become a framework to make both AR and VR web-based applications. The tools to create WebXR applications (as ) will grow in number and some (as Amazon Sumerian) will let users create WebVR applications even if they don’t know how to code. I think that . This way the number of WebXR-based experience will increase a lot. my prediction is that all browsers will support WebVR, that in the meantime will become WebXR Rodin Unity too will add an experimental way to export in WebVR Arcades , as is happened in 2017, especially in the Eastern part of the world (China, Japan, etc…). We’ll have both into which you can try an amazing VR experience that blends the real with the virtual (as in The Void) and (like an HTC Vive) that you can’t afford at home. Of course, the first ones will be few, while the second-type ones will be the majority. VR Arcades will continue to pop up like mushrooms fantastic VR theme parks with highly technological warehouses places where you can pay to try a VR device I think that 2018 will continue the positive trend of VR arcades and maybe they’ll also have more customers since . But . If, as I think, 2019 will be the year of disruption for VR technology, that year a lot of people will start owning a VR system at home and won’t need to go to an arcade to use VR anymore. So, The high-quality arcades, instead, will continue to live, thanks to the fantastic realistic experience they’re going to offer. in 2018 the awareness of people towards VR will be a lot higher I also think that will be the last year with such a trend I think that in two years, the arcades that just let people try VR will have to evolve or die. China Donald Trump’s favorite country will continue its VR race and will become a worldwide virtual reality power as the US. I think that , both with regard to its internal market (that is mostly interested to mobile VR systems because they’re cheaper) and to the external market. Apart from HTC, that is obviously a leader in this sector, some interesting Chinese companies have gained the interest of the worldwide VR environment: in 2017 we have assisted to the growth of the Chinese VR ecosystem for its wireless adapter; TPCast for his wonderful 8K headset (and also for its 5K and ); Pimax 4K one for its cheap standalone headsets. Pico and in Beijing, you can find . In China , cities where there is a lot of R&D on VR and where everything from education to medical facilities makes an intensive use of VR, so to exploit the technology at its maximum. HTC is experimenting the use of cloud rendering so that people can save the money of a VR-ready PC. Alibaba is experimenting a VR experience for buying online. Furthermore, Xi Jinping has clearly stated some times ago that And he’s succeeding in his plan. In China, there is now an enormous VR theme park one of the first VR cinemas the government has created some VR cities AR and VR are a trend that the country should follow and so the government is investing a lot to make China a great XR country. VR Cinema in Beijing (Image by Yue Cheng Media) I think that : HTC Vive has started creating an ecosystem with that is particularly tailored to serve the Chinese market, as Google has created Daydream to rule the western world. The Vive Focus and Pico Neo for the first time are and not US-first. at the end of 2017 we have seen the first VR isolation of China from the western world Viveport+Vive Wave interesting devices sold China-first Chinese major companies like Alibaba and HTC will continue funding AR/VR startups worldwide ( has been also funded by asian funds); ; we’ll have an enormous production of VR headsets (especially plastic cardboards) in China; we’ll see interesting products being created and being China-only at the beginning; : as it has happened for all the rest, will become more isolated from the one of the rest of the world, with some companies becoming big by just serving the enormous Chinese internal market. In 2018, China will continue this trend. Magic Leap there will be a lot of new VR Chinese startups popping up, both on the hardware and software side we’ll start seeing a VR-great wall starting to grow the VR Chinese ecosystem The gigantic mecha in front of the enormous VR theme park in Guiyang (Image by Reuters) . Honestly, I keep thinking that they won’t be the first, because until now I’ve seen all the greatest true innovation coming from the US. Just to say: HTC Vive uses a tracking technology invented by Valve (US); Vive Focus and Pico Neo use a headset reference design invented by Qualcomm (US). So, I think that in 2018 we’ll see amazing things from China, but China will be the second worldwide VR driver we’ll continue seeing the biggest disruptions coming from the US. Safety In 2017 we have had a lot of people questioning if VR can hurt our eyes, if it or if . The Guardian has published a (highly biased) regarding an experiment that . : a guy that while in VR has fallen on a glass table and has died because of this. can be dangerous for our children it can be addictive article showed for the first time that maybe VR can have side effects on children We have also had the first casualty of VR The dear health & safety warning of the Oculus Rift In 2018 we’ll have more users and more awareness towards VR, so all these things will get worse: more people will start asking if VR hurts ourselves and ; we will start having more people having problems because of VR or having problems that they think that are caused by VR. I think that as there are the “video games make people violent” trend, we’ll have similar stupid trends for VR too: more researches will be made in this sense people will start saying that VR hurts our eyes and that makes people addictive. : apart from reseaches about if the devices can be harmful to ourselves, , to avoid accidents as the one happened to the Russian guy that has died. Safety will become an important topic in VR the users should be educated on how to use VR properly at home Standardization VR is currently in a far-west moment where there is no standard. SteamVR/OpenVR has become a standard de facto for the various tethered headsets, but it is absolutely not enough. As you can read on its website, its scope is creating a cross-platform VR standard: The OpenXR project of Khronos foundation serves exactly this purpose. The cross-platform VR standard eliminates industry fragmentation by enabling applications to be written once to run on any VR system, and to access VR devices integrated into those VR systems to be used by applications. I think that in 2018 we’ll start seeing the first true results of this standardization efforts. OpenXR standardization project (Image by Khronos group) We all want to reach the moment where VR is as in The Matrix, where we are completely immersed in the virtual world and we feel it as being real. In 2018 we won’t be there (we will need to do that… and this will require decades), but brain-computer interfaces scientists will continue working on this sense. (so especially on things like high-resolution/high-frequency displays, foveated rendering and displays that help in solving the vergence-accommodation problem), but also that can make VR complex applications run even on mid-end computers (and standalone devices). I think we’ll see a lot of experiments on every aspect of VR. It will be focused especially on displays, rendering techniques and eye tracking on optimizations like ASW Blogs , of course! :D :D :D The Ghost Howls will rule the world Final impressions Pimax 4K Headset (Image by Pimax) : it will be the year when it is in, the year when people will start understanding why VR is useful. More headsets of different kinds (mobile, tethered, standalone) will be sold, more content will be available and more companies will become interested in this fast growing market, creating a virtuous ecosystem. It won’t be the year of final disruption of VR, though, but (the more the time passes by, the more I agree with ). I think that 2018 will be a very interesting year for VR VR will come out from the quicksand it will be the year that will prepare the take off that will happen in 2019 John Riccitiello’s predictions And that’s it. . What do you think about them? Do you agree? What do you think that will be the disruptions that can make these predictions immediately become obsolete? Let me know in the comments here below! These are all my predictions for this year in VR And before you go, don’t forget to clap for this article and especially to come visiting me at my XR blog The Ghost Howls ! (This is an updated version of that originally appeared on ) an article my blog

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