Let’s start with a trick question — Think about that for a second. I will come back to that question because it is the most important piece in all of what is happening. But first, let me show you why Threads is only having a “Clubhouse moment” right now. what is the most important thing to Zuckerberg right now? Why Would Anyone Use Threads? The only reasons anyone is using Threads right now fall into three categories: You can easily get an account through your Instagram or Facebook (and you won’t exactly be starting from scratch) People want to get the first to arrive advantage to build authority on the platform. (The kind that people who jumped on TikTok early got) People who are unhappy after Elon’s takeover of Twitter finally have a place they can fomo to If the platform was launched by a startup that was just getting started, it would not even get a lift-off, except if they did something really magical. Clubhouse was the last sharp-rise platform we witnessed recently. Clubhouse rose in popularity during the lockdowns because people missed in-person meetings. A video call seems like something people had to prepare for. Clubhouse was the beautiful in-between where you can be casual and still hear the voice of other people. You could be in the toilet and be in on a conversation. It was fun as people couldn’t go out. The moment the lockdowns eased, the popularity of Clubhouse went down the tubes. Of course, the platform still exists and probably doing fine. But no one can call Clubhouse a top today. All that evaporated. social media platform I fomo-ed into Clubhouse too. I had to upgrade my iPhone then. (I am usually a late adopter of new trends). But I have not opened my Clubhouse app in months, most likely over a year now. I know people who have built something on Clubhouse like a breakfast meeting or something. And they still have that today. But that is just it. There is no real-world relevance that drives it anymore. Exit Clubhouse, Enter Zoom What about Zoom, you may ask? Why has Zoom sustained the momentum? This is because Zoom also got a surge during the lockdowns. But this is because . Zoom is part of something greater The lockdowns made a lot of people realize that they can actually work from home. And once people tasted that, they were reluctant to go back. The working experience of many people was forever changed during that period. They realize that they can do a lot more from wherever they are, and they have Zoom to stay connected with colleagues. This is why Zoom continued to boom after the lockdowns. People still wanted to work from wherever they were. And yes, when the lockdowns ended, Zoom suffered a bit of a downtrend. But it wasn’t as bad as Clubhouse because the psychology that drove their sudden relevance is one that people want to keep. This point is very important as we dissect Threads. But first, let’s talk about Zuckerberg. Zuckerberg’s Latest Blunders First, I am not anti-Zuckerberg. I respect him as a leader and businessman. He is very ruthless and focused. He has proven himself many times already in the business world. He is very intelligent. But I am no fan of him either. In a cage match between him and Musk, I would bet on him. Not because I like him, but because I think he is younger and more ruthless than Musk (who I like personally slightly more). So, this is not a hit piece on the man — and he probably won’t read this anyway. Zuckerberg has been making lots of blunders lately. In my opinion, the last smart decision he made was . And that was quite a long time ago. All the big bets he has made since then have not been as good. acquiring WhatsApp I think he should have continued with his system of acquisition instead of trying to build things in-house. Acquiring both Instagram and WhatsApp was a legendary move. I know there might be the issue of running out of quality businesses to acquire. But he could have built a system around that model to keep it going. This is because the company needs true huge growth to justify its valuation on the stock market. The rebrand to Meta was a massive error. I shared it with the people around then too. Everybody was praising him, but I was critical even though I was also into crypto. Facebook is too big for that kind of bold move. Yes, a rebrand was necessary, but the metaverse was just the wrong place to look toward. The metaverse should have just been a major project in the R&D department that will keep growing over time. But because they surged into it too fast (for a company of that size), now they are trying to pretend it didn’t happen. People don’t even think of the metaverse anymore when they mention Meta. Why? Those three platforms — Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp are big enough to assert their own identity without trying to cling to any concept. Watch out for my final recommendation at the conclusion. But before then, let’s talk about Threads. Let’s Talk About Threads Why would anyone in their right mind want to create a competitor to Twitter? Don’t they see what came out during Elon’s forced acquisition? The company is barely alive financially. Even after Elon trimmed the company massively, it is still barely getting by. It is not a money maker at all. It is nowhere close to the revenue generation machine of Facebook and Instagram. Nowhere close. So why would anyone copy it? The only reason Twitter is what it is today is because of the information you can get from it. You can get stuff on Twitter that you can’t get anywhere. Twitter is where all the angry people of the world get together to insult themselves, which can be very much fun to watch. . And Elon acquiring the platform is one of the best things that happened to that platform. That contributed to the unique information dissemination stance of the platform. Twitter is special because of what it has evolved to be Threads didn’t make Twitter special. Twitter was special before it was possible to write in threads. Twitter has been special when the character limit was 140. Then later, 280. If Zuckerberg thinks he is going to steal Twitter’s audience with this new app he calls Threads, then he has horrible advisers on this issue. The only thing Threads will do is split the amount of time people spend on Facebook and Instagram. He is playing himself, not Twitter. People will still go to Twitter for what they can get from Twitter. And time spent on IG and Facebook will split further into Threads. Is that a good thing? Well, maybe. If the is to further understand the user and get more data to be able to send more targeted ads, then Zuckerberg is an absolute genius. And he wins with this app. But if that is not the case, I don’t know if there is any other scenario where this is a win for Meta. purpose of Threads Will Threads Fail? Nope. I don’t think Threads will fail. But I think it will fade soon into oblivion. First, Zuckerberg has a very short attention span. Remember that during the height of Clubhouse, Facebook added a similar feature. How far has that gone now? Not too far, I guess. But it is still a good feature on Facebook. Just not a blockbuster. I guess anymore. There will always be a next thing. And you will forget about Threads too. Well, you can be among the very few people who will be using Threads for the long term. But I am not even getting an account unless my social media team deems it useful to create one for me. (I still have to delete my Clubhouse account). you don’t even think of the metaverse anytime you hear the name “Meta” This brings us back to the question I started with. What is the most important thing to Zuckerberg and Meta right now? Remember that this is a publicly-traded company. During the stock boom of the lockdowns (fueled by money printing), Meta reached incredible highs by announcing the rebrand to Meta and hedged on the Metaverse craze. But that bubble went down because investors finally started to ask the right questions when the free money was going out the window. Meta reached over $1 trillion in valuation during that time. But now, the company is way below $1 trillion in (July) 2023. And you know what stock market valuations are built on? Investor confidence. My guess is that Threads is just a move by Zuckerberg to gain the investor confidence to get the company back to the trillion dollar valuation This is the play for me. The moment Meta is back chasing Apple, Threads has achieved its purpose. And maybe in 2 years, Meta will drop another thing that will draw attention like this again. So, this is just another “Metaverse” moment. I don’t see or sense any lasting fundamental idea backing threads other than the fact that it is a copy of Twitter. And platforms are not built like that nowadays. But hey, Meta can get away with anything! After a very short while, people who use Facebook and Instagram will realize why they are not using Twitter in the first place. And those using Twitter will keep going to Twitter for those hot discussions. Conclusion & Recommendation If you know me, you know I wish success to all. But the lack of innovative thinking from Meta makes me cringe; I won’t lie. Nothing close to an original concept. Just blatant copies every time. At least, pretend for once to make something innovative. Even “meta” wasn’t innovative. They were jumping on a trend. In my own opinion, I think Facebook needs a President. Yes, that he is. But he needs a President. He needs a true creative by his side. Not someone with the right qualifications to be a “creative director.” Instead, someone raw with original perspectives. Zuckerberg should keep being the kickass CEO I think if Meta wants one, they should look into the art world — music, poetry, fiction, philosophy, writing, etc. They need someone whose job will be to come up with ideas. Meta needs a President and a creative team to come up with good ideas for two billion+ people. In conclusion, Threads is just another copycat idea of Meta that they will soon shift focus from. The goal for Zuckerberg is to get that investor confidence back again. I think he will get that. But as always, it will be short-lived. That’s because Threads really has no place in his heart. If it did, he would have done it years ago. I rest my case. Notes: I wrote this article the weekend after Threads launched. And today, about three weeks later, reality has shown that my insight was spot on in more ways than not. Also published . here
