Ungasondela Kanjani Kwamakusasa Adume Kakhulu, Izinketho kanye Nokunye Okuphuma Kunye Ezimakethe Ze-Crypto Namafa

Ukuqonda ikusasa, izinketho nokunye okuphuma kuyo

Enye yezinto ezixaka kakhulu ingqondo engiyibona kubantu abangena ekuhwebeni ukuthi abazi ukuthi bahweba ngani.

Ukungayiqondi imakethe oyihwebayo kungadala izinkinga ezahlukahlukene, ikakhulukazi uma isikhundla siphambene nawe.

Lesi sihloko sizofaka izinto eziyisisekelo zokuphuma okudume kakhulu ozozithola ezimakethe ze-crypto nezamafa.

Iyini i-derivative?

Okuphuma kokunye kuyinkontileka ethola inani layo empahleni eyisisekelo.

Ukukhuluma okokuqala mayelana nokuphuma kokunye kuhlehlela emuva esiGrekini sasendulo, lapho isivumelwano sokuphuma kokunye sasisetshenziswa ekuhwebeni kweminqumo.

Umlando wakamuva kanye nokukhuphuka kokuduma kokuphuma kokunye kungatholakala ngeminyaka yawo-1930s lapho izitolo zamaBhakede zazisebenzisa okuphuma kokunye.

Okuphuma kokunye kungadalwa kusuka kunoma iyiphi impahla eyisisekelo, Amasheya, Amabhondi, I-Cryptocurrencies, impahla, njll.

Imakethe yokuphuma kokunye inkulu ngempela; ngokusho kwe-European Securities Market Authority, ngo-2017, kulinganiselwa ukuthi usayizi wemakethe yokuphuma e-Europe wawungama-euro ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-660 nezinkontileka ezisele eziyizigidi ezingama-74.

Kunezindlela ezimbili eziyinhloko zokuthi okuphuma kokunye kudayiswa kanjani.

Ngokuyimfihlo Over-the-counter (OTC) kanye nokuphuma kokuhwebelana ngokuhwebelana (ETD).

Ama-derivatives asetshenziswa ngezindlela ezimbili ezinkulu.

• Izinjongo zokuvikela zivame ukusetshenziswa ngabadlali abakhulu.

• Ukuqagela kanye ne-arbitrage kuvame ukusetshenziswa ngabadayisi abancane/abadayisayo

  
  

Lesi sibonelo esilula sokuphuma kokunye esidume kakhulu yinkontileka yekusasa ye-E-Mini S&P500 esekelwe kunkomba yesitoko sika-Standard & Poor sika-500.

Ikusasa

Iyini inkontileka yesikhathi esizayo?

Inkontileka yesikhathi esizayo yisivumelwano esisemthethweni sokuthenga noma ukuthengisa inani elinqunywe kusengaphambili lethuluzi lezezimali ngentengo eshiwo ngedethi eshiwo ngokuzayo.

Ngaphambi kokuthi ikusasa libe yithuluzi eliyinhloko labaqagela, lalisetshenziswa futhi namanje lisasetshenziswa njengamathuluzi okuvikela.

Isibonelo intengo yekhofi esizayo ephelelwa yisikhathi ngoMashi 2023 okwamanje icishe ibe ngu-$225.

Uma unenkampani ethengisa ikhofi futhi engafuni ukuzichaya ekuguquguqukeni kwentengo njengoba icabanga ukuthi u-$225 uyinani elifanelekile lekhofi layo, ingathengisa ikusasa likaMashi ngo-$225.

Lokhu kubanikeza isibopho sokuletha inani elishiwo lekusasa Lekhofi ngosuku lokuphelelwa yisikhathi lukaMashi.

Kodwa asikho isidingo sokukhathazeka; ngeke uphoqeleke ukuthi ulethe ikhofi eliphathekayo noma uwoyela ngosuku lokuphelelwa yisikhathi.

Njengoba ikusasa liya lithandwa kakhulu ngokuqagela, ama-brokerage esikhathi esizayo avimbela ukulethwa ngokomzimba ngokuvala izikhundla zakho ngezinsuku ze-rollover (i-rollover = lapho ivolumu isuka kunkontileka yesikhathi esizayo ephelelwe yisikhathi iye ngenyanga ezayo.)

Inkontileka yesikhathi esizayo ngayinye inekhodi yayo ethile.

I-E-mini S&P500 iyinkontileka yekusasa ethandwa kakhulu futhi edayiswayo emhlabeni jikelele.

Uma sibheka inkontileka edayiswayo njengamanje, uzobona ukuthi ibizwa nge -ESH2022.

Njengoba izinhlamvu ES (igama lenkontileka) kanye no-2022 (unyaka wokuphelelwa yisikhathi) zizwakala ziqondile, uhlamvu H lungase ludideke.

Uhlamvu H umele inyanga yokuphelelwa yisikhathi; kulokhu, lokho kunguNdasa.

Ezinye izinyanga zokuphelelwa yisikhathi zihamba kanje:

• NgoJanuwari - F

• February - G

• Mashi - H

• April - J

• May - K

• Juni - M

• Julayi- N

• Agasti - Q

• September - U

• Okthoba - V

• Novemba - X

• Disemba - Z

  
  

Ukuphelelwa yisikhathi nakho kuyahluka ngokuya ngenkontileka.

Izinkontileka eziningi zesikhathi esizayo ezifana nenkomba yekusasa noma i-cryptocurrensets ziphelelwa yisikhathi njalo ngekota, kodwa ezinye izinkontileka zesikhathi esizayo zempahla ezifana ne-Crude Oil ziphelelwa yisikhathi nyanga zonke.

Ikusasa eliyifa

Imakethe yekusasa lefa inkulu futhi isabalele ezindaweni ezahlukene ezihlinzeka ngemikhiqizo ehlukene emhlabeni jikelele.

Ukushintshaniswa kwekusasa okudume kakhulu yi-CME Group, ehlinzeka ngekusasa lenkomba njenge-E-Mini S&P500, Nasdaq, noma i-Dow Jones.

Ngaphandle kwalokho, ungakwazi futhi ukuhwebelana ngekusasa lohlobo lwemali noma ikusasa le-cryptocurrency, okuyi-Bitcoin ne-ETH.

Ezinye izindawo ezidumile yi-CBOT okuyinhlangano ebambisene neqembu le-CME futhi enikela kakhulu ngekusasa leBond.

Izimpahla ezifana neGolide, iSiler, Igesi Yemvelo noma Uwoyela Ongahluziwe kudayiswa eNymex naseComex.

Ngaphandle kwe-US, kukhona ukuhwebelana okufana ne-ICE, i-Eurex, i-MOEX, i-Osaka Exchange, njll.

Imikhiqizo iyodwa iyahluka ngokuya ngosayizi, amadethi okuphelelwa yisikhathi, noma amahora okuhweba.

Okuhlala kufana nomgomo oyisisekelo wekusasa kanye neqiniso lokuthi wonke lawa makusasa aphelelwa yisikhathi.

I-Cryptocurrency Perpetual Futures

Izinkontileka zesikhathi esizayo ezingapheli (ezibizwa nangokuthi i-perpetual swaps) zaba izinkontileka zesikhathi esizayo ezidume kakhulu ngemuva kokuthi i-Bitmex izethule ngo-2016.

Nakuba abantu abaningi becabanga ukuthi badalelwa ikakhulukazi imakethe ye-cryptocurrency, akulona iqiniso.

Bavele okokuqala ngo-1992, adalwe nguRobert Shiller ukuletha ikusasa ezimpahleni ezingekho emthethweni.

Namuhla, bayingxenye engenakuhlukaniswa yemakethe ye-cryptocurrency; kube nomzamo wokwethula izinkontileka zesikhathi esizayo "ezidilivayo" ngokushintshana okubizwa nge-Coinflex, kodwa akuzange kubanjwe ngempela.

Njengenkomba yekusasa, ama-cryptocurrencies ahlala ngokheshi; umehluko kuphela ukuthi ukushintshwa okungapheli akunayo idethi yokuphelelwa yisikhathi.

Njengoba lezi zinkontileka ezingapheli zingaphelelwa yisikhathi, abahwebi bakhokha noma bathola imali ngamafasitela avamile wehora; lokhu okuguquguqukayo kubizwa ngesilinganiso soxhaso.

Amazinga oxhaso

Lapho i-Bitmex yethula ama-swaps angunaphakade, futhi yakha umjikelezo ongapheli wewindi lesikhathi samahora angu-8 lapho baqala khona ukukhokhisa amanani enzalo ngokusekelwe kusaphulelo se-premium senkontileka yokushintshanisa kanye nentengo engaphansi ye-Bitcoin.

Imali yoxhaso ishintshaniswa ngokuqondile phakathi kwabathengi nabathengisi njalo ngamahora angu-8.

• Uma izinga loxhaso lilihle, abanikazi bezikhundla ezinde bakhokhela abanezikhundla ezimfushane.

• Uma izinga loxhaso lilibi, abanikazi bezikhundla ezimfishane bakhokhela abanezikhundla ezinde.

  
  

Inani liyahluka kuye ngosayizi wendawo yakho futhi ukubala kubukeka kanje:

Imali yokuxhasa = inani lesikhundla * izinga loxhaso

Uma uxhaso lunegethivu, ukushintshwa bekuhweba ngezansi (ngesaphulelo) uma kuqhathaniswa nendawo futhi izikhindi kufanele zikhokhe inkokhelo kuma-longs.

Uma uxhaso luphozithivu, kusho ukuthi ukushintshana bekuhweba ngenhla (ngenkokhelo) kuqhathaniswa nendawo futhi izifiso kufanele zikhokhe imali yezikhindi.

Isikhathi esiningi, lokhu kuhlotshaniswa ngokuqondile nendlela imakethe ephokophele ngayo. Uxhaso lusebenza njengendlela yokugqugquzela abahwebi ukuthi bavule izikhundla eziphikisana nethrendi futhi balinganisele ibhuku lama-oda.

Njengoba sonke sazi ukuthi abadayisi bezitolo ngokuvamile bavame ukungalungile, ukweqisa kwamazinga okuxhaswa kungasetshenziswa ekwakheni isu lokuhweba.

Izikhathi ezinde zamazinga okuxhaswa ngezimali aphezulu zingaba izimpawu zokuthi izimakethe zithengwe kakhulu/zithengiswe ngokweqile.

Amazinga oxhaso ayahluka ngokusekelwe ekuhwebeni; okuvame kakhulu umjikelezo woxhaso wamahora angu-8, kodwa futhi besingabona amanani oxhaso ngehora esikhathini esidlule.

Umehluko phakathi kwamazinga oxhaso ekushintshanisweni okuhlukene kuvame ukuhlinzeka abahwebi ngamathuba okuhweba e-delta-neutral.

Izinhlobo zezinkontileka zekusasa le-cryptocurrency

Kunezinhlobo ezimbili zezinkontileka zesikhathi esizayo ezinikezwayo namuhla, okuphambene (uhlamvu lwemali olubekwe eceleni) kanye nekusasa elihlelwe eceleni kwe-USD .

Ikusasa le-USD eliseceleni liqondile; ufaka i-USD yokwenziwa (imvamisa i-USDT) ekushintshanisweni, futhi ibhalansi ye-akhawunti yakho nokulingana kuhlala ku-USDT.

Lawa makusasa athandwa kakhulu njengoba ahlinzekwa ngokuhwebelana okufana noBinance, Bybit.

Ziyimikhiqizo emisha njengoba ikusasa eliphambene bekungowokuqala owethulwe yi-Bitmex.

Ikusasa eliphambene gcina ibhalansi yakho kuhlamvu lwemali esikhundleni samadola.

Lokhu kuletha enye into abathengisi okufanele babhekane nayo: ukuguquguquka kohlamvu lwemali ngokwakho.

Ukuhwebelana okudume kakhulu namuhla okunikeza izinkontileka eziphambene yi -Bybit ne-Bitmex.

Ake sithi unentshisekelo yokufunda okwengeziwe ngekusasa le-Bitcoin futhi ungene ku-nitty-gritty yezinkontileka. Uma kunjalo, ngincoma ukuthi ufunde imibhalo ekuhwebeni noma kokuthunyelwe Okumaphakathi okuvela kwa -Romano kanye ne-Austerity Sucks njengoba benendatshana yendatshana emayelana nokuphuma kokunye kwe-crypto.

Futures Mechanics

Ikusasa lidayiswa ngosizo; i-average ikunikeza amandla okuthenga angaphezu kwalawo e-akhawunti yakho enawo.

Sonke isikhundla sidinga imajini ukusuka ohlangothini lwakho, kodwa okunye kunxeshezelwa ngosizo.

Ngenxa yokuthi uhweba ngemali eningi onayo, into yokugcina oyifunayo ukukhokhela ukulahlekelwa kwakho.

Ngakho-ke uma izikhundla ziphikisana nenani elithile, ukuhweba kwakho kungasondelana ngokuzenzakalelayo (kuqedwe).

Uma intengo yeBitcoin ingu-$10,000 futhi uzothenga i-BTC engu-1 ngesilinganiso esingu-10x, ufaka kuphela i-10% yesikhundla sokuhweba, i-$ 1,000.

Uma intengo yeBitcoin yehla ngo-10% futhi okwamanje iku-$9,000, isikhundla sakho siyasuswa.

Hlala ukhumbula lezi zinto nokuthi amandla angathinta kanjani isikhundla sakho.

Ama-CFD

Iyini i-CFD?

I-CFD imele i-Contract for Difference, futhi ingolunye uhlobo lwabadayisi abaphuma kokunye abangahweba.

Uzothola ama-CFD ahlinzekwa ikakhulukazi ngabathengi be-Forex esikhundleni sezinkontileka zesikhathi esizayo.

Abanalo ncamashi idumela elihle kakhulu njengoba abathengisi be-Forex besebenzisa amamodeli ahlukene e-B-Book (izikhundla zokuvula ngokumelene nabahwebi) futhi bangakwazi ukwandisa ukusabalala kwalawo ma-CFD.

Kunjalo, uma ukhetha umthengisi othembekile nolawulwayo, akukho okumele ukhathazeke ngakho.

CFD vs Futures

Njengoba ngike ngasho, ama-CFD nekusasa kufana kakhulu.

Ama-CFD nawo ahlala njalo. Ngakho-ke aziphelelwa yisikhathi.

Futhi, uma uzobheka i-ESH2022 kuplathifomu ye-CFD, ngeke uyithole.

Ama-CFD ahlala engaphansi kwamagama ahlukene njengoba amagama asemthethweni ngokuhwebelana kwesikhathi esizayo ephawulwa, ngakho i-S&P500 ivamise ukubizwa nge-US500 esikhundleni se-ES nokunye.

Kunesizathu esisodwa kuphela sokuhweba ngama-CFD kunezinkontileka ze-Futures uma usebenza ngebhalansi encane.

Iphuzu elilodwa ku-E-Mini S&P500 Futures lilingana no-$50, kuma-CFD okuvamise ukuba ngu-$1 kuphela ngosayizi wezikhundla ezincane kakhulu.

Ama-CFD ayimakethe enhle kakhulu ethola inzondo eningi kaningi.

Zivinjelwe e-US nakwezinye izingxenye zomhlaba kodwa zinikezwa abathengisi abaningi abalawulwa baseYurophu.

Uma unemali ephezulu, ngihlala ngiphakamisa ukuthi uhwebe ngezimakethe ze-Futures, ikakhulukazi ngezinkontileka ezincane ezitholakalayo.

Ngaphandle kwalokho, ama-CFD angasetshenziselwa ukuhweba izimakethe ezizacile njenge-Nasdaq noma i-Dax lapho ukusabalala kungayidlali indima ephezulu noma ukwakha isikhundla sesikhathi eside esinezidingo ezimbalwa ze-margin uma kuqhathaniswa nekusasa lapho uphoqeleka khona ukuthi usebenzise imajini eyengeziwe yokubamba ngaphandle kwamahora okuhweba avamile.

Izinketho

Yiziphi izinketho?

Izinketho zinikeza umnikazi ilungelo kodwa hhayi isibopho sokuthenga noma ukuthengisa impahla eyisisekelo ngentengo eshiwo ngosuku olushiwo.

Umthengi wezinketho ukhokha iprimiyamu, umdayisi wenketho uthola iprimiyamu.

Ukuze uhumushe la magama alula kakhulu, ake sithi ufuna ukuthenga indlu futhi uthole umdayisi.

Ubuza umdayisi ukuthi angakunikeza yini inketho ephelelwa yisikhathi ezinyangeni ezi-3 futhi akunike ilungelo lokuthenga indlu ngo-$500,000; uzophinde athole inkokhelo yalolu khetho elingana no-$10,000.

Uma evuma, unelungelo lokuthenga indlu ngo-$500,000 noma nini kulezo zinyanga ezintathu, futhi awudingi ukuba nendaba nokuguquguquka kwentengo yemakethe yezindlu.

Ake sithi izinyanga ezintathu zidlulile, futhi intengo yamanje yendlu ingu-$450,000 kuphela.

Kulokhu, kusobala ukuthi ngeke uthenge indlu ngo-500k, ngakho-ke ngeke usebenzise ilungelo lakho lokuthenga indlu.

Kodwa ulahlekelwe yi-premium engu-$10,000, obekuyingozi oyifaka kuyo.

Kwesinye isibonelo, ake sithi imakethe yezindlu yenyuka kakhulu, futhi intengo yamanje yaleyo ndlu manje isingama-$700,000.

Kunjalo, uzosebenzisa ilungelo lakho lokuthenga indlu ngo-$500,000, futhi wenze inzuzo engu-$190,000 (Intengo yokugcina (700k) – Intengo Yesiteleka (500k) – I-Premium (10k).

Manje ake siphenye itafula futhi sibheke isimo ngombono womthengisi wenketho.

Esimeni sokuqala, inketho iphelelwe yisikhathi ingenamsebenzi njengoba intengo yendlu yayingaphansi kwenani lokuzikhethela, futhi umdayisi wagcina ethole inzuzo yeprimiyamu akhokhelwe kuyo.

Esimeni sesibili, izinketho ziphelele emalini, futhi umthengisi walahlekelwa ngo-$190,000 njengoba manje kufanele athengise indlu enenani lama-$700,000 kuphela ngama-$500,000 (kususwe iprimiyamu.)

Lesi simiso siyefana ekuhwebeni kwezinketho futhi.

Uma ungumthengi ongakhetha kukho, ubungozi bakho bukhawulelwe emalini ekhokhiwe kuphela, futhi umvuzo wakho ngokobuchwepheshe awunamkhawulo.

Uma ungumthengisi ongakhetha kukho, umvuzo wakho ukhawulelwe kuphela kuprimiyamu oyitholayo, futhi ubungozi bakho abunamkhawulo ngokobuchwepheshe.

Nakuba lokhu kungase kuzwakale sengathi ukuthengisa okukhethwa kukho kuwumbono omubi kunayo yonke eyake yaba khona, izinketho ziwukuphuma kokunye okuyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu, futhi izinto azilula njengoba zingase zibonakale.

Izinketho eziyisisekelo

Ngakho manje njengoba wazi ukuthi izinketho zisebenza kanjani, yisikhathi esihle sokuhumushela lolu lwazi ezimakethe.

Nakuba isibonelo sokuthenga indlu sasilula, uma uvula iketango lokukhetha endaweni yesikhulumi njenge-Deribit, kubonakala sengathi yonke into ilula.

Uma ufuna ukuvula i-oda ngekusasa, ngokuvamile liqonde phambili, uyathenga noma uyathengisa.

Emaketangeni okukhethwa kukho, kunezinto eziningi okufanele zicatshangelwe.

Ukuze wenze izinto zibe lula ngangokunokwenzeka, udinga kuqala ukuthatha intengo yesiteleka.

Uma ukhetha intengo yesimangalo, ngokuvamile uzwa amagama amathathu ahlobene nentengo yamanje yempahla eyisisekelo. Ungase uzwe igama elithi "imali" yenketho.

• Emalini (ITM) - Intengo yesiteleka yenketho “isemalini” nempahla eyisisekelo. Isibonelo salokhu uthenga i-January 28th Call ngentengo yesiteleka engu-45000, futhi i-Bitcoin okwamanje ihweba ku-47000.

• Emalini (ATM) - Intengo yesiteleka yenketho iyafana nenani lamanje lesisekelo. Ukuthenga i-January 28th Call ngenani lesiteleka se-47000 kanye nokuhweba kwe-Bitcoin ku-47000 kusho ukuthi uthenga "ngokhetho lwemali".

• I-Out the money (OTM) - Intengo yesiteleka sokukhetha ayinalo inani langaphakathi uma liqhathaniswa nesisekelo. Ukuthenga i-January 28th Call ngenani lesiteleka se-50000 kanye nokuhweba kwe-Bitcoin ku-47000 kusho ukuthi uthenga "ngaphandle kwenketho yemali".

  
  

Imali iyivelu yangaphakathi yenkokhelo yenketho emakethe.

Uma uzibuza ukuthi liyini inani langaphakathi, yonke inketho inamanani amabili I-Intrinsic ne-Extrinsic Value.

Inani langaphakathi lenketho yinani lenketho ekuphelelweni yisikhathi.

Ngamanye amazwi, inketho yentengo yesiteleka engu-45000 engaphansi okwamanje ehweba ngo-50000 inenani langaphakathi lika-5000.

Inani le-Extrinsic libizwa nangokuthi inani lesikhathi.

Inani le-Extrinsic lincike esikhathini sokuphelelwa yisikhathi, ukuguquguquka, izinzuzo kanye nezinga lenzalo elingenabungozi lesisekelo.

Uma sibheka izinketho ezimbili, eyodwa ephelelwa yisikhathi kusasa nenye ephelelwa yisikhathi enyangeni kusukela manje.

Inketho enesikhathi eside sokuphelelwa yisikhathi inevelu ephezulu yangaphandle ngoba inesikhathi eside sokuphelelwa yisikhathi.

Izinketho zamasu

Lapho uhweba ongakhetha kukho, uzoqaphela ukushoda kwezinkinobho zakudala "Ezinde" kanye "Nezifushane" ongase uzisebenzise kwezinye izinto eziphuma kuzo.

Uhweba ngezinketho ze-Call and Puts, futhi ungahamba isikhathi eside noma esifushane kuzo.

Uma ukhetha ukuhweba, ungaba yi-bullish noma ube yi-bearish futhi wenze inzuzo lapho izimakethe zinganyakazi noma zenze inzuzo ngomnyakazo obalulekile ngaphandle kokulungile lapho ubheka khona.

Ake siqale ngezinto ezilula.

Uma uthenga ikholi, unamandla . Ubungozi bakho yimali oyikhokhayo, futhi amandla akho okwenza inzuzo awanamkhawulo uma imakethe ikhuphuka.

Uma uthenga i-put, u-bearish . Ubungozi bakho yimali oyikhokhayo, futhi amandla akho okwenza inzuzo awanamkhawulo uma imakethe yehla.

Uma uthengisa ikholi, awunamandla . Ubungozi bakho abunamkhawulo, futhi inzuzo yakho ephezulu yimali oyitholile.

Uma uthengisa i-put, uba yi-bullish . Ubungozi bakho abunamkhawulo, futhi inzuzo yakho ephezulu yimali oyitholile.

Into mayelana nenketho ukuthi ungathenga noma uthengise okuningi kwabo ngesikhathi esisodwa ukuze udale izikhundla zemilenze eminingi.

Uma usaqiniseka ngesiqondiso, ungahweba i-Call noma i-Put spreads.

Lokhu kusho ukuthi uthenga inketho futhi uthengisa inketho engabizi ngesikhathi esifanayo.

Lokhu kukhawulela ukuphakama kwakho, kodwa futhi ukhokha i-premium encane yenketho.

Into yokugcina ongayiveza ngezinketho zokuhweba ukuguquguquka kokuhweba.

Izimvemvane, ama-Straddles, ama-Strangles, ama-Iron Condors njalonjalo amagama ahlukene amasu okukhetha ahlukene asetshenziswayo.

Esinye sezibonelo yi-Straddle.

Uma uthenga i-Straddle , uthenga i-put bese ubiza ngentengo efanayo yesiteleka. Siyabonga ngalokho, wenza imali uma imakethe ihamba noma yikuphi ukusuka enanini lakho lesiteleka. Ubheja ngokuguqukayo ukuze ungene emakethe maduze.

Uma uthengisa i-Straddle, uthengisa i- put bese ubiza ngentengo efanayo yesiteleka. Kuphambene nokuthenga i-straddle, futhi awufuni ukuthi kwenzeke noma yikuphi umnyakazo obalulekile, futhi wenza imali ngenxa yokonakala kwesikhathi ngenketho yakho yokuphelelwa yisikhathi kungenanzuzo, futhi uqoqa iprimiyamu.

Kunenqwaba yamasu okukhethwa kukho, futhi kungaphezu kobubanzi balesi sihloko ukuwahlanganisa; uma ufuna ukufunda okwengeziwe mayelana nezinketho sezizonke, ngincoma ukuthi ukhethe Inketho Yokuguquguquka kanye Nentengo ka-Natenberg noma uma uthanda ifomethi ye-meme ejabulisayo i-Kamikaze Cash ku-youtube iyisiteshi esihle kakhulu sayo.

Ukuguquguquka

Ngakho-ke uma uthole lokhu kude esihlokweni futhi izinketho zokucabanga ziyadida, yilapho ingxenye eyinkimbinkimbi iqala khona.

Nakulokhu, kungaphezu kobubanzi balesi sihloko ukumboza yonke into ngokuningiliziwe, kodwa ngizozama ukukunikeza umbono omfishane wokuguquguquka kanye namaGreki.

Ngakho-ke yini i-volatility?

I-Volatility ibhekisela ekushintshashintsheni kwentengo.

Kokukhethwa kukho, kubonisa ukuguquguquka kwempahla eyisisekelo.

Uma imakethe izinzile, iba nokuguquguquka okuphansi.

Lapho imakethe ihlangabezana nokuguquguquka okukhulu kwentengo, ukuntengantenga kuphezulu.

Intengo yenketho inezici ezintathu ezibalulekile.

• Inani langaphakathi
• Inani lesikhathi
• Ukuguquguquka

I-volatility ephakeme iwukuthi, inketho ebiza kakhulu njengoba inamandla amaningi okunyakaza.

Kunezinhlobo ezimbili zokuguquguquka ozozibona ezishiwo esikhaleni sezinketho.

Ukuguquguquka Komlando

Ukuguquguquka komlando (ngezinye izikhathi okubizwa ngezibalo) kuyinkomba ebheka emuva ebonisa ukuntengantenga kwezimpahla eziyisisekelo esikhathini esidlule.

Lesi yinkomba elula efana nanoma iyiphi enye i-oscillator.

I-Volatility eshiwo

Uma kuqhathaniswa nokuguquguquka komlando, ukuguquguquka okusikiselwayo kuyinkomba ebheke phambili futhi kusitshela ukuthi yikuphi ukuguquguquka esingakulindela esikhathini esizayo.

Ibalwa ngokusebenzisa ukuchezuka okujwayelekile kwempahla eyisisekelo.

Ukuguquguquka okucatshangelwayo kuyenyuka ngokunyakaza kwamanani amakhulu kusisekelo, nokwanda kwezinketho ezishiwo zokuguquguquka nakho kubiza kakhulu njengoba uhla lwamanani lukhuphuka.

I-IV (i-volatility implied) ivamise ukukhuphuka ngaphambi kokukhishwa kwe-macroeconomic futhi yehle ngokushesha ngemva kwakho.

ku-IV, kukhona futhi Izinga le-IV eliqhathanisa i-IV yamanje namanani onyaka odlule, kanye nephesenti le-IV elimele i-IV yamanje uma kuqhathaniswa namanani adlule.

Nakuba lezi ezimbili zizwakala zifana, umehluko wukuthi iphesenti le-IV lisitshela iphesenti lezinsuku onyakeni odlule ukuthi i-IV ibingaphansi kwezinga lamanje.

Iphesenti le-IV lika-80 lisho ukuthi i-IV ibingaphansi kwezinga lamanje lama-80% esikhathi onyakeni odlule.

Inkomba ye-Volatility (VIX)

I-CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange) idale i-Volatility Index (VIX) ukukala ukuntengantenga okulindelekile kwezinsuku ezingama-30 kwemakethe yamasheya yase-US.

I-VIX isebenzisa izintengo zesikhathi sangempela zekholi ye-S&P500 nokubeka izinketho.

Njengoba ungabona eshadini le-VIX, ukuguquguquka kuvame ukubuyisela emuva, futhi izikhathi zokuguquguquka okuphansi zilandelwa ukunyakaza okuphawulekayo futhi ngokuphambene nalokho.

Nge-Bitcoin, singabheka inkomba ye-BVOL eyenziwe yi-Bitmex, esitshela into efanayo.

AmaGreki

Kungenzeka ukuthi wake wezwa ngamaGreki esikhathini esidlule.

AmaGreki amelela okuguquguqukayo okunquma intengo yezinketho, ehlala ishintsha.

Uma uke wahweba ngezinketho, kungenzeka ukuthi uhlangabezane nesimo lapho intengo yenketho ayizange ihambisane nentengo eyisisekelo, amaGreki azokutshela ukuthi kungani.

Ngokuvamile uzothola amaGreki khona kanye etafuleni lezinketho.

Njengoba ubona, kukhona i-oda lokuqala, i-oda lesibili kanye ne-greek ye-oda lesithathu.

Kulesi sihloko, simane sinamathela kumaGreki e-oda lokuqala. Ngokweqiniso, awudingi ukuzihlupha kakhulu nge-oda lesibili nelesithathu.

I-Delta

Inani lezinketho zentengo lishintsha ngo-$1 ushintsho kokuyisisekelo. Izingcingo zine-Delta phakathi kuka-0 no-1. Ama-Puts ane-Delta phakathi kuka-0 no-1.

Gamma

Ihlobene eduze ne-Delta, i-gamma izinga loshintsho ku-Delta kulo lonke ushintsho lwe-$1 kokuyisisekelo.

Thetha

Okwaziwa nangokuthi ukubola kwesikhathi, i-theta ichaza ukuthi inani lenketho lizoshintsha kanjani uma sekusondele isikhathi sokuphelelwa yisikhathi.

I-Vega

Inani lezinketho zokushintsha intengo ngo-1% ushintsho ku-IV

U-Rho

Inketho yentengo yokuzwela ekushintsheni kwesilinganiso senzalo

Ukuhweba Okungaqondile Ngokusebenzisa Okuphuma Kunye

Manje kufanele ube nokuqonda okuhle kokuphuma kokunye.

Engxenyeni yokugcina yalesi sihloko, ngizokuhambisa ngamasu athile asetshenziswa ezimakethe kodwa ungathembeli ekubeni ulungile uma okuyisisekelo kuzokwehla noma kwehle.

Ukuhweba okuguquguqukayo

Ngenxa yezinketho, ungahweba ukuguquguquka, futhi sengivele ngihlanganise kancane kulesi sihloko.

Ungaba ukuguquguquka okude noma ukuguquguquka okufushane.

Uma uguquguquka isikhathi eside, ulindele umnyakazo obalulekile ozokwenzeka ezinsukwini ezizayo; uma u-volatility emfushane, kuphambene.

Ukuthenga noma ukuthengisa i-straddle yisu elidume kakhulu kukho.

Ungasebenzisa ishadi le-VIX noma i-BVOL ukuze ubone amaleveli lapho ukuntengantenga kuvame ukugxuma noma kube mfushane ngemva kokwenyuka kwentengo okukhulu.

Cash and Carry

I-Cash and Car iwuhlobo lwe-arbitrage lokuhweba olusebenzisa ukungalingani phakathi kwesisekelo nokuphuma kokunye, ikakhulukazi ikusasa elinedethi yokuphelelwa yisikhathi.

Empeleni, lokhu kuzosho ukuthi uvula isikhashana kwinkontileka yesikhathi esizayo ehweba ngaphezu kwentengo yemakethe yendawo.

Ngesikhathi esifanayo, nawe ubambe indawo efanayo, lokhu kuzodala indawo emaphakathi ye-delta, futhi uzokwenza inzuzo ngomehluko phakathi kwekusasa nendawo njengoba amanani ehlangana ekupheleni kwesikhathi.

I-Premium yesikhathi esizayo ihlotshaniswa nezimo zemakethe zizonke.

Kumathrendi e-bullish, amaphrimiyamu ayakhuphuka, futhi kuma-downtrends, ayancipha.

Isisekelo Trade

Ku-cryptocurrencies, kunezindlela eziningi zokukhiqiza imali engenayo ngokudala indawo engathathi hlangothi ye-delta ezoletha imbuyiselo ethile.

Lawa mathuba avamise ukuba sesikhaleni seDefi, lapho amanani avame ukuba ngaphansi, futhi angifuni ukumosha lawo mathuba kulabo abazinika isikhathi sokuwafuna.

Amathuba avame ukutholakala ezinguqukweni ezibalulekile ezilinganisweni zoxhaso uma kuqhathaniswa nozakwethu bokushintshaniswa okumaphakathi.

Ukuhwebelana Kwababili

Uma uhweba ngababili, ucosha izimpahla ezimbili ezihlotshaniswa kakhulu futhi uma ukuhlobana kwazo kwephuka, ubheja ngembuyiselo esikhathini esizayo.

Lapho ukuhlobana kwephuka, uthatha isikhathi eside ku-asethi A engasebenzi kahle futhi uyifushanise idlula impahla engu-B kuze kube yilapho ukuhlanganisa kubuyela ezinombolweni eziphezulu.

I-Bitcoin ne-ETH banokuhambisana cishe okungama-.95 okwamanje.

Ungabona ukuthi ngoJanuwari 4, lapho ukuhlobana kucwiliswe ku-.50, ungathatha isikhathi eside ku-BTC eyayingasebenzi kahle ngosuku futhi imfushane ku-ETH eyayisebenza ngokudlulele.

I-BTC idlale "i-catch-up" enhle ku-ETH kuzo zombili izimo emizuzwini embalwa kamuva.

Isiphetho

Umhlaba wokuphuma kokunye mkhulu, futhi ungethusa labo abangenakho ukuqonda oomakhenikha abalula.

Uma uzizwa ukhuthazeke kakhulu ukufunda amanye amakhasi angu-900+ mayelana nokuphuma kokunye, ngincoma ukuthi uthathe le ncwadi kwaHull.

Ngethemba ukuthi lesi sihloko sikunikeze okungenani ukuqonda okujwayelekile, futhi uzoqonda izinto ozihwebayo manje kangcono.