Hype vs. walaxda   Waxaan ereyga 'disruptobloat' u soo saarayaa si aan u qeexo xilli gaar ah oo tignoolajiyad kasta oo weyn ay marto:  Lacagaha VC ayaa ku socda 50 nooc oo kiis la mid ah.  Calaamadaha   ee qof kastaa wuxuu muujinayaa inay khabiir ku ahaayeen [teknoolojiyadda cusub qaarkood] (waxaan u idhaahdaa si xishood la'aan ah, maadaama LinkedIn ay ku jirto crypto & AI labadaba) LinkedIn  Ciwaannada cinwaannada ayaa si tartiib tartiib ah uga guuraya "dhammaan shirkadaha waxay ku dhismayaan [teknoolojiyada]" una guuraan "Macaamiishu ma ka dheregsan yihiin [teknoolojiyada]?" ilaa dabada-kaftan ee aan naxariista lahayn iyo "maxaa khaldamay".  Disruptobloat waa ifafaale soo-saarka xad-dhaafka ah: [qaar ka mid ah tignoolajiyada cusub] -alaabooyinka ay wadaan ayaa ku qulqulaya suuqa, iyaga oo baabi'inaya aragtida qiimaha muddada gaaban.    Waa tartan loo galay isla shay: ogaanshaha kiis isticmaal dhegdheg leh oo qaabeeya hab-dhaqanka macmiilka cusub oo kor u qaada qiimaha. Ma aha cayayaan; waa tallaabo lagama maarmaan u ah horumarka, waana wax wanaagsan! The weyn ee disruptobloat ah, si degdeg ah waxaan ku helnaa horumar, sababtoo ah waxaan ku celceliyaa iyada oo fikradaha si degdeg ah.    oo ka tirsan   ayaa u kala saaray sidan: Azeem Azhar View Exponential  Heerka 1: Samee waxa aanu samayno si ka jaban: (…) si toos ah u samee hawlaha caadiga ah.  Heerka 2: Samee waxa aan samayno, kaliya samee si ka sii wanaagsan: (…) fursadaha horumarinta tayada. Bangi weyn oo maalgashi, tusaale ahaan, ayaa dhawaan isticmaalay AI si uu u habeeyo inta badan oo ka mid ah caymiska tijaabada unugga. Tani waxay hoos u dhigtay kharashaadka waxayna u oggolaatay imtixaanno dhammaystiran, hagaajinta tayada guud ee software.  Heerka 3: Samee gebi ahaanba waxyaabo cusub. Tani waa meesha awooda dhabta ah ee AI ay ka bilaabato inay muujiso (...) Laakiin halkan waa xoqitaanka: ganacsiyada intooda badani waxay ku xayiran yihiin Heerka 1 ama Heerka 2. Waxay u isticmaalayaan AI inay xiiraan kharashyada ama kor u kaca hababka, iyagoo luminaya fursadda ay   (...) si xeeladaysan dib ugu fekeraan waxa ganacsigoodu wuxuu u ekaan karaa  Arrintu waxay tahay, qof kastaa wuxuu   inuu "si xeeladaysan dib ugu fikiro sida ganacsigiisu u ekaan karo", laakiin waa adag tahay. Dhammaanteen waxaa shardi u ah inaan ka fikirno caqabadaha daahsoon ee nolosheena maalinlaha ah, iyo dib-u-fiirinta waxay dhacdaa kaliya marka aan iska indhatirno caqabadahaas. Ganacsiyada jira, waxay sidoo kale yihiin caqabadaha nidaamka deegaanka ee macaamiisha, shuraakada, dakhliga, iyo faa'iidada. isku dayaa  Badeecadaha AI Models  Waxaa jira odhaah asalkeedu yahay xilligii Dahabka Dahabka: "Marka dadku qodaan dahabka, iibiyaan majarafad", oo inta badan loo isticmaalo in lagu qeexo istiraatiijiyadda ganacsiga: halkii aad si toos ah uga qayb qaadan lahayd tartan iyo suuq mala-awaal ah, waxay bixiyaan agabka iyo adeegyada muhiimka ah   suuqaas. Dhibaatada majarafadihii, in kastoo, waa in ay yihiin fungible, iyo  . ee   ayaa soo baxday in moodooyinka AI ay sidoo kale yihiin  Aynu ka soo qaadno in aanu jirin adeeg bixiye sii dayn moodeel ka amarrada cabbirka ka wanaagsan tartanka wakhti dheer oo ku filan si ay u noqoto mid istaraatiijiyad ahaan muhiim ah__   __. Halkee ayuu qiimuhu ku kacayaa, haddaba? Si kale haddii loo dhigo, waa maxay noocyada alaabooyinka awood u yeelan doona inay dhisaan moot? 2  Lakabka arjiga__   __ - dusha sare, abka, goobaha ay isticmaalayaashu la falgalaan waa: 3  waxay u badan tahay inay qaabeeyaan dhaqamo cusub, baraya isticmaalayaasha inay sameeyaan   sidaas darteed waxyaabo cusub oo dhan,  Waxay u badan tahay in ay kor u kacdo qiimo aad u badan waqti ka dib iyada oo la dhisayo suuqyo cusub  La yaab ma leh, markaa, in ay mudan tahay in lala tartamo boqollaal (haddii aysan kumanaan ahayn) bilawga isla kiisaska isticmaalka.  - taasina waa hal sanduuq oo ganacsi!   75% dufcaddii YC ee ugu dambeysay waxay ahaayeen AI bilow  Xigasho ka  wuxuu bixiyaa fikrad sawir-qaadis ah oo ku saabsan halka uu dadaalku marayo; Horumar laga soo bilaabo midho soo laalaada ugu hooseeya una gudubto   :    ) a16z samaynta waxyaalo cusub  Aaladaha AI ee ku shaqeeya kombuyuutarrada jira (ka fakar: qoraalada kulanka tooska ah ee shirarka Zoom)  Aaladaha AI ee ku shaqeeya kombuyuutarrada jira ee leh tallaalka meesha ka saaraya softiweerkaas jira (ka fakar: qoraallada shirarka ee Kulamada Soodhoweynta… halkaas oo shirkaddu ay markaa dhisto shirarka fiidiyowga oo ay kugu dhejiso inaad ka fogaato Zoom)  Aaladaha AI ee isu beddela foosha - qayb cusub oo cusub, oo aan gebi ahaanba taaban softiweerka illaa heerkan (ka fikir: software-ku wuxuu kuu qabanqaabiyaa kulanka adiga!)   Sidaa darteed, disruptobloat.  Kala furfurida GPT-yada  Tartankan u dhexeeya shirkadaha jira iyo 0→1 bilaabista waa caqabad saafi ah oo daahfurka badeecada. Aragti ahaan, bixiyeyaasha moodeelku waa inay lahaadaan faa'iido, natiijada ka soo ururinta xogta isticmaalka 2 sano. Raadinta aragtida suuqa OpenAI ee soo celinta GPTs  ; Waxaan hubaa in wada-hadallada dhabta ahi ay yihiin kuwo iftiimin badan, laakiin malaha maaha wax-ku-ool ah. GPT-yadu waxay muujinayaan in dadku u isticmaalayaan LLM-yada waxyaabaha   . Horumarku wuxuu yimaadaa marka badeecada, iyo kooxda ka dambeysa, ay ogaadaan sida dadka loo baro inay    xog caajis ah oo qurux badan ay ogyihiin inay u isticmaali karaan LLM-yada sameeyaan waxyaabo cusub.  Waxay xasuusineysaa  Sida looxyada kala duwan loo kala qaybiyay adeegyo khaas ah, qaar badan oo iyaga ka mid ah ayaa gaadhay heerka unicorn-ka mar, waxaanu arki doonaa mid la mid ah oo dhacaya - oo aad u dhaqso badan - GPTs, iyada oo badeecad kastaa ay isku dayayso inay xalliso dhibaato gaar ah oo ka fiican hal. -xajmiga-ku habboon-dhammaan daaqadda wada sheekaysiga   kala saarida Craigslist  Istaraatiijiyada Isku-dhafka Toosan  Toddobaadkii hore,   (taas oo abuurtey fikir badan oo ka dambeeya qoraalkan). Marka la eego macnaha guud ee disruptobloat AI iyo badeecooyinka moodooyinka, istaraatiijiyadda isdhexgalka toosan waxay noqotaa mid si gaar ah u khuseysa: waa hab lagu dhiso moat, waana meesha ay mas'uuliyiinta ku leeyihiin faa'iido. Ka yimid Packy: Aan caajisin waxaa daabacay Packy McCormick   Isku-dhafka toosan    waa shirkado: Isku-dhafka toosan  Isku-dubarid teknoolojiyad badan oo goyn-laakin la xaqiijiyay.  Samee awoodo muhiim ah oo guriga dhexdiisa ah oo dhan.  Habbee qaybaha badeecooyinka iyadoo la xakameynayo guud ahaan isdhexgalka nidaamka.  Si toos ah ula tartan masuuliyiinta xilka haya.  Soo bandhig badeecooyin ka wanaagsan, dhaqso badan, ama ka jaban (badanaa dhammaan saddexda).  NVIDIA ayaa tusaale u ah istaraatiijiyadan ku saabsan steroids, dhisidda nidaamyada deegaanka ee ku xeeran teknoolojiyadda asaasiga ah si loo xakameeyo xirmooyinka tignoolajiyada oo dhan, gaar ahaan marka moodooyinka salka ay noqdaan kuwo badeecado ah:  Qalabka (GPUs, A100, H100, DGX, Jetson)  Software-ka (CUDA, TensorRT)  Platforms: NVIDIA Omniverse ee jilitaanka 3D, NVIDIA Clara ee daryeelka caafimaadka  Shaybaarka Robotics iyo Issac Sim robot jileeyaha  NVIDIA DRIVE ee baabuurta iskeed u madaxbannaan, labadaba hardware iyo software (DRIVE AGX, DRIVE OS).  Hadda ma aha in dhammaan mas’uuliyiinta xilalka haya ay ku tartamayaan ama ku tartami doonaan lakab kasta, balse ujeeddadu waa in ay   u leeyihiin in ay sidaas sameeyaan, haddii ay tahay dhismo ama hanti. Sida  sharxayaa, isagoo isticmaalaya Stripe iyo Square tusaale ahaan adeegyada fintech-ku dhow: awood   a16z  "Tani waa cilada ka jirta in la eego Square iyo Stripe oo loogu yeero ciyaartoyda badeecadaha. Waxay leeyihiin qaybinta. Waxay leeyihiin xirfad injineernimo.   . Taas macnaheedu maaha inay samayn doonaan, laakiin guushooda waxay ku xidhan tahay wax soo saarkooda iyo kartidooda injineernimada, maaha heshiis aan macquul ahayn oo lala galo oligopoly ama utility. ” Waxay dhisi karaan TiVo iyaga u gaar ah  Hibada Kala Qaybinta  Mid ka mid ah yoolalka hore ee aan u lahaa boostadan waxay ahayd inaan tilmaamo kiisaska isticmaalka dilaaga, taas oo, dib u eegis, waa amar dheer oo dhowr saacadood ah oo cilmi baaris ah. Weli, sida buunbuunisku u yaraado, waxaa jira dhowr geesood oo disruptobloat ah oo aan fiiro gaar ah u leeyahay:  Hoos u dhigista kharashka markii hore aadka loo rabay, laakiin adeegyada qiimaha sare leh - sharci, maaliyadeed, daryeel caafimaad - halkaasoo kharash yar uu abuuri karo baahi weyn. Ka  (mar kale): "LVMH waxay u badan tahay inay ku bixiso tobanaan milyan oo doolar sannadkii la dagaalanka alaabada been abuurka ah, dirista joojinta iyo warqadaha joojinta, la shaqeynta sharci fulinta, iwm. Immisa baayacmushtar yaryar oo Shopify ah ayaa laga yaabaa inay rabaan adeeg isku mid ah? Dhammaantood! Immisa ayaa ku bixi kara $50M/sanadkii? Midkoodna. Immisa ayaa laga yaabaa inay kharash gareeyaan $1,000/sanadkii? Ma laga yaabaa dhamaantood?”   a16z  Dimuqraadiyeynta xirfadaha kakan, sida aan ku samaynay codaynta. Inta badan sheekada ku xeeran barnaamijyada ay caawiso LLM waxa ay diiradda saaraan kaydinta kharashka, laakiin sixirku waa in ay awood u siiso dadka in ay gebi ahaanba wax cusub oo   hore u samayn karin. Waxaan tan maqalnay in muddo ah, marka hore codeynta bootcamps-ka, ka dibna aan lahayn abka koodka, laakiin kuwani waxay la yimaadeen xaddidaadyo. Hadda ma jiraan. aanay  Shakhsiyaynta sare ee miisaanka, guud ahaan hawl kasta oo macaamilka ah  AI + Robotics  Farsamada Cimilada__   __ 4  Kiiska isticmaalka dilaagu waa meel ka baxsan, aan la sifayn oo ku hafanaya qaylada. Haddi ay noqoto -ama goorta -  waa su'aal kale.   suuqa ayaa diyaar noqon doona    PS: Waxaan ku dhejiyaa   ku saabsan teknoolajiyada soo baxaya waxaanan jeclaan lahaa inaan kuwaas si toos ah kuugu soo diro. https://hypegeist.substack.com/  PS2: Waad ku mahadsan tahay Claude kobcinta maskaxda iyo wax ka beddelka caawinta.

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Codkan waxa lagu soo saaray afkii asalka ahaa ee sheekada!

The AI Disruptobloat: Sida wax-soo-saarka xad-dhaafka ah u milicsado qiimaha laakiin uu dedejiyo hal-abuurka

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