On June 5, 2025, a solo miner with a brief hash rate spike to ~259 PH/s managed to win block 899826, earning a total reward of 3.151 BTC worth approximately $330 000. This improbable victory is a powerful reminder that individual participation can still matter — and that Bitcoin’s probabilistic fairness hasn’t entirely disappeared beneath industrial-scale mining. Let’s break down how these lone players beat the odds. On June 5, 2025, a solo miner with a brief hash rate spike to ~259 PH/s managed to win block 899826, earning a total reward of 3.151 BTC worth approximately $330 000. a solo miner a solo miner This improbable victory is a powerful reminder that individual participation can still matter — and that Bitcoin’s probabilistic fairness hasn’t entirely disappeared beneath industrial-scale mining. Let’s break down how these lone players beat the odds. The Bitcoin network has never been easy for the little guy. By 2025, mining has turned into a game of big pools and industrial players. According to independent analyst b10c’s research, over 80-90% of mined blocks come from just six major pools. This concentration means a handful of organizations decide what transactions get processed. And while Bitcoin’s design makes censorship collusion hard, centralization like this does put the network’s decentralization at risk. A 51% attack becomes easier if a few pools work together. 80-90% 80-90% Even with 40% hash rate, a pool could statistically have around a 50% chance to mine six blocks in a row over many attempts (a theoretical scenario, not a practical probability in a single short time frame). That’s a scary prospect for anyone who believes Bitcoin should remain trustless. That’s why the recent success of solo miners looks so unusual — and so important. That’s why the recent success of solo miners looks so unusual — and so important. One in a Million? Almost One in a Million? Almost The average Bitcoin network hash rate sits around 800 EH/s. A solo miner with an Antminer S19 Pro gets about 110 TH/s. That’s 0.000000014% of the entire network hash rate. In other words, the chance for such a miner to find a block is 1 in about 7.3 mln. That’s only a bit better than Powerball lottery odds, which sit at 1 in 292 mln. Still, solo miners do hit the jackpot. In July 2024, a miner with just 3 TH/s found block 853 742, earning 3.192 BTC — roughly $200k at the time. According to The Miner Mag, the odds of this happening were like winning once in 3 500 years of non-stop mining, or 1 in 1.2 mln each day. In April 2024, another miner with 120 PH/s got lucky and mined a block for 3.125 BTC — about $200K after the halving cut the block reward. Back in 2023, a solo miner with only 10 TH/s — barely above hobby level — landed 6.25 BTC (over $130K) with chances close to 1 in 20 mln. In September 2024, yet another solo miner with 82 PH/s mined block 860 749, earning 3.125 BTC plus 0.044 BTC in fees. His rig combined power of around 410 Antminer S21 units, each at 200 TH/s. His odds were 1 in 7 800 — still needing luck but much more realistic than hobby miners. Why These Stories Matter Why These Stories Matter These rare wins show solo mining isn’t dead yet. Sure, success chances are slim, but they’re not zero. That’s important because if solo mining disappears completely, Bitcoin becomes fully dependent on pools. Pools don’t just find blocks; they choose what transactions to include. If all miners go through a few pools, these pools effectively become gatekeepers of Bitcoin. That’s bad news for censorship resistance. Even if miners stay honest, it creates a fragile system. A hack, regulatory action, or technical fault at a major pool could disrupt a huge part of Bitcoin’s block production. When solo miners still find blocks — even once in a blue moon — it shows Bitcoin’s architecture still allows independent miners to participate meaningfully. You can read more on why this matters in a Bitcoin Magazine analysis. Their takeaway: decentralization isn’t a given just because Bitcoin is open source. It depends on how miners organize themselves. So, Can You Solo Mine Profitably? So, Can You Solo Mine Profitably? You’ll need three things: serious hardware, a full Bitcoin node, and solo mining software like CGMiner or BFGMiner. You’ll need three things: serious hardware, a full Bitcoin node, and solo mining software like CGMiner or BFGMiner. The more hash power you have, the better your odds, but you still face a statistical uphill battle. The more hash power you have, the better your odds, but you still face a statistical uphill battle. If you’d rather get smaller but steady payouts, mining in a pool is safer. Still, as long as even a few miners keep trying solo, Bitcoin stays closer to its decentralized promise. Want more stories that go beyond the hype? Subscribe to my HackerNoon updates and stay informed with real numbers and deep dives into Bitcoin, crypto, and beyond. HackerNoon
