News — At The Edge — 6/16

• Positive developments — blockchain & medical AI — for a better future.
• Unresolved developments — AI for disinformation, AI evolution & carbon economy — can cut either way.

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Positive developments for a better future

A 7,000 Year History of Trust with MIT’s Michael Casey —

“[Clearly] record keeping and the trust it begets…played a foundational role in the development of civilization…[and] places blockchain in a context of record keeping and institutionalized trust_…._

[W]e break down trust by virtue of…a common language….[In] economic exchange…we trust each other’s claims of what we’re owed…which is really what money is…..

[A]t the end of the 15th century…double entry bookkeeping became the standard…[that] enabled the modern payment system….The Renaissance, the industrial revolution, the modern world, was created on the back of banks as bookkeepers, the centralized ledger keepers of all of our debt….

The problem was, centralized ledger keeping….[It’s how] in 2007, Lehman Brothers…[had] best year in its history…and nine months later…was completely bankrupt and…almost brought the entire global economy to its knees….[So] whether it is the ledger of the banks or of the auditors, they’re all compromised by their own self interest….

[Reconciliation’s] the biggest and unspoken forms of the cost of trust… through our economy….Trust is critically important, but we’ve had very imperfect measures of maintaining it….

Decentralized record keeping changes this dramatically….Accountants, auditors, equity analysts…may find their roles redundant. It changes the cycle of our economy….

The power of a centralized ledger created gatekeeping monopolies…[like] Amazon, Facebook, Google…[who exploited] absence of a reliable, decentralized trust management system…[and] why we have all these avatars and bots…exploiting the [Internet]….

[T]he blockchain and…decentralized trust architecture is the route towards whatever solutions we’re going to have to find….

[But] be very careful about how the incumbents will forge these systems…[to] protect their legacy businesses and prevent innovation, but…also potentially hold our financial system hostage.” https://media.consensys.net/a-7-000-year-history-of-trust-with-mits-michael-casey-f3356533f7c1

Artificial intelligence will improve medical treatments —

“[Viz.ai] uses machine learning…[for] patients who need urgent attention…by analyzing scans of their brains…[with] hospitals in America’s ‘stroke belt’ — the south-eastern part_…._

[Others] train some artificial-intelligence software to classify skin lesions…[and] against 58 dermatologists…[who] identify 86.6% of skin cancers…[AI] found 95%…[and] misdiagnosed fewer benign moles as malignancies….

[Similar] progress in the detection of breast cancer…[and] to grade women according to their risks…and decide the best time for their next mammogram….

[Another] AI that screens…for conditions such as glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy and age-related macular degeneration….

[Some] AIs intended to interpret echocardiograms…of the heart…[to] detect changes invisible to the eye and improve the accuracy of diagnosis…[for] cardiac arrhythmias, particularly atrial fibrillation, which increase the risk of heart failure and strokes….

Eric Topol, a cardiologist…[says] doctors and algorithms are comparable in accuracy in some areas, but computers have the advantage of speed…[and] make medicine more specific…[drawing] distinctions that elude human observers…grade cancers or instances of cardiac disease according to their risks….

Machine-learning systems…need close supervision for years to come…[because] doctors do not know exactly how they reach their decisions…[and] inclined to become biased if insufficient care is paid to what they are learning from.” https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2018/06/09/artificial-intelligence-will-improve-medical-treatments

Unresolved developments can cut either way

Disinformation Wars —

“[U.S.] and Europe are ill-prepared for the coming wave of ‘deep fakes’ that artificial intelligence could unleash**….**Russian disinformation…[is] a problem for European governments…[so] promoting media literacy, funding a third-party fact-checking service, and pushing Facebook and others to highlight news from credible media outlets…[and] hinting that regulation….

[Still] none of the laws or strategies…so far will be enough…[since] technology advances far more quickly than government policies…[that] target the disinformation of yesterday….

[With] artificial intelligence and decentralized computing, the next generation of disinformation promises to be even more sophisticated and difficult to detect…[and] should focus on four emerging threats…

1. the democratization of artificial intelligence,
2. the evolution of social networks,
3. the rise of decentralized applications…
4. ‘back end’ of disinformation….

[A]s with any dual-use technology, the proliferation of AI also poses significant risks…[like] democratize the creation of fake print, audio, and video stories…difficult to distinguish…from authentic ones…[now] produced by anyone with a computer or smartphone…will prove challenging for governments and civil society to counter effectively.

Because the algorithms…continuously learn how to more effectively replicate the appearance of reality…[we] cannot rely on algorithms alone, but will instead need to invest in new models of social verification….

SEO manipulation industry is estimated to be in the billions of dollars….Without fundamental changes to its API and interaction design, Twitter will remain rife with disinformation….

Blockchain technologies and other distributed ledgers…designed from the ground up to resist the kind of centralized control that Facebook and others enjoy…[promise] a web that is both more secure and outside the control of major corporations and states…[but] requires a deeper examination and assessment of the ‘back end’ of disinformation….

1. significant funding…at the intersection of AI and information warfare….
2. governments will need to work together with private sector firms to identify vulnerabilities and national security threats….
3. emergence of decentralized applications presents policymakers with a rare second chance….
4. legislators should continue to push for reforms in the digital advertising industry….AI will make it far easier for malicious actors and legitimate advertisers alike to track user behavior…identify potential new users to target, and collect information about users….
5. [FTC’s] calling for transparency and accountability in the data broker industry.”

https://medium.com/foreign-policy/disinformation-wars-290fd8818f89

Doc Says — Our Emotions, Institutions and Technological Capabilities Are Mismatched_Is the human species special?_medium.com

The Truth About Artificial Intelligence —

“[AI] is our child…[but] children end up succeeding their parents and in many cases revolting against them….

[AI] software with human wisdom and experience, are what will impact us most as we begin to interact with our wall screens and call upon robot assistants, robotic lawyers, and [doctors]…[and] will work with the smart bathrooms…to analyze your…body fluids….Portable MRI scanners will allow them to acquire imaging from your body….

Modular robots are based on cubes that can be rearranged and interchanged to become different shapes…are classified as polymorphic robots…[and] take on the shape of insects or animals and perform important tasks in the background of our everyday lives. This might include repairing bridges or important pipelines…[bypassing] obstacles by disassembling themselves and then rebuilding themselves on the other side….

[Am] firm believer in the idea of keeping emotions separate from AI… yet there’s evidence to believe that emotions are crucial to developing intelligence…[and] decide what things have value and which don’t….

Scientists do not really debate if AI will achieve consciousness but rather when…[and] consists of three things:

1. sensing and recognizing the environment
2. self-awareness
3. planning for the future, strategizing and simulating goals…[running] a variety of simulations…far into the future…[to] provide more detail and more depth…[taking] best traits of humans — common sense and pattern recognition and goal making — and produce them much more accurately while anticipating and avoiding problems we may not have seen….

[When] our AI children become more intelligent than [us]… they will begin to replicate, creating new generations that are each smarter than the ones before. They will overtake us…[and] go on to new galaxies…manipulating the laws of physics….[So] man is that…bridge and not an end.’ [Nietzsche]….

Forcing them into being friendly with humans might not work…because it might…tempt them to find a way around our rules…[with] potential for a far more destructive outcome….

[T]o build friendly robots, however, we will have to change how AI funding is primarily provided. Right now the government pays for most AI development…[for] machines intent on finding and killing other humans….

[T]he machines might one day turn on their own creators…[but] will continue to need us in the near future….

We have no universal definition for intelligence ourselves.” https://medium.com/@Ella_alderson/the-truth-about-artificial-intelligence-c7932082c496

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Community Is Playing A Risky Game With Us_Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) come in many forms — nukes, bioweapons, nanotechnology, cyber-weapons. So far each…_medium.com

Carbon ‘bubble’ could cost global economy trillions —

“Energy efficiency and low carbon technology could cause [economic] downturn, even if governments fail to…meet the Paris climate goals…[and] could cause losses larger than the 2008 financial crisis…[with] US and Canada…the biggest losers….

The world invested around $700bn in oil, gas and coal in 2016…[and] accounts for 6% of global stock markets and 12% in the UK….

[B]y 2035, $1 trillion dollars could be wiped off the global economy if no new actions to limit warming to less than 2 degrees are taken…[rising] to $4 trillion if new policies to restrict emissions further are set [back]….

’Many investors don’t take the carbon bubble seriously…[believing] climate policies won’t be adopted, and if they are…won’t be tough….

Japan, China and the EU…[will] grow along with their economies as their imports of fossil fuels will become much cheaper….[U.S.] Russia and Canada…could improve their situation by moving away from investment in fossil fuels and trying to develop renewable energy….

Many models assume that [carbon capture] will become cost competitive at some point.. [but] it’s not clear….[Model] uses a 2 degree scenario, so…[if] 1.5 degree target of the Paris Agreement…[met] losses from stranded assets could…be even larger’….

If action is taken soon, the carbon bubble can be deflated….A simple first step would…require all corporations to disclose their exposure to stranded assets.

If the bubble isn’t dealt with quickly…[it] may lead to political upheaval…’[because] people working in those sectors have suffered a lot already.’” https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-44357243

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May you live long and prosper!Doc Huston