In most new products today, the technological risk is minuscule in comparison with the risk of not achieving product-market fit.
Entrepreneurs (and therefore their investors) have X amount of time and Y amount of money to create a successful product. Any investment that doesn’t align with reducing the most critical risks (the first of them being attaining product-market fit) leads to waste.
Many methods were created to help VCs evaluate an investment in a startup. Most of them are based on numeric indicators (such as Depth of engagement & quality of revenue) but early-stage startups, often, do not have these indicators, or these indicators could actually be misleading. In these cases, VCs need to understand how these companies are moving forward on their product trajectories by relying only on a combination of qualitative and quantitative proxies.
While working with VCs and startups, I created a framework to gauge the maturity of a new product, which is outlined here, and can help:
Several factors are worth considering as leading indicators of whether the product is advancing in the right direction. They are listed here by order of importance-
1. Progress towards PMF
2. People- state and experience of the team, what roles are filled and how well they are functioning
3. Process & impact on velocity- an early-stage startup’s top priority should be to maximize the speed of learning
4. Revenue- most early-stage companies have little or no revenue, which is why other leading indicators are needed at this stage.
Outcomes matter most. Many of the items in this process are somewhat intangible (like talent discussions often tend to be). Measuring where the company is, in the progress towards PMF is the most tangible outcome.
When product-market fit (PMF) is achieved, and can be measured (for example through this criterion or this 5-question quiz), the product maturity analysis is easy.
The problem begins in companies that are before or borderline to that stage. The numbers are not there, or they are misleading, and the founders might not even be aware they aren’t there yet.
My first step in the analysis is to look at the path that led them to where they are and understand how truthful they were with themselves while walking through it.
This journey towards PMF is broken into two main stages: validating the value hypothesis (Identifying and proving a compelling value hypothesis means you have found product/market fit), and then the growth hypothesis.
Value hypothesis
I break this journey into 4 steps:
Growth hypothesis
The growth hypothesis tests how new customers can discover the product- this includes a variety of topics such as lead generation, positioning against competitors, virality, and spread. It is followed by hiring a dedicated sales team, establishing channel partnerships, and more.
AFTER validation of the value hypothesis, the next step is the growth hypothesis. Working in that order, and getting to PMF before growth prevents companies from wasting time, money, and resources on growing a business in a way that is doomed to fail.
To evaluate the quality of hypothesis validation, I created this worksheet:
In addition to understanding the maturity of the company and product, founders/product teams can prioritize what to focus on, based on the state of each hypothesis.
The following are some of the positive and negative “signs” I utilize:
1. Problem Hypothesis
Signs of maturity:
5+ engaged early adopters who are at the top of the early evangelist pyramid
The team can detail how the problem is being solved today by each of these customers, and what is the cost & impact of not having a product that solves it.
Signs more work is needed:
2. Market Hypothesis
Signs of maturity:
Signs more work is needed:
3. Solution Hypothesis
Signs of maturity:
Signs more work is needed:
4. Pricing Hypothesis
Signs of maturity:
Signs more work is needed:
One clear result of having the value hypothesis validated is the ability to lock down on a product strategy and move forward. The goal here is to assess whether the founders are following a path that shows their awareness of market types and how this affects the product & GTM strategy.
There are four common groups of such strategies:
1. New Market (no other solutions to the problem exist)
Example: iPhone, Palm Pilot
Impact on Strategy: The GTM strategy should focus on market education, building demand, very rapid testing of the first four value hypotheses with high quality of evidence on each.
2. Existing Market (other solutions to the problem exist, going head to head with existing players)
Example: Zoom (better performance than WebEx/GoToMeeting)
Impact on Strategy: Product strategy must focus on finding significantly better features (that are at least ten times better at doing something than the current prevailing way of doing that thing), performance, or a better/different go-to-market.
3. Existing market — attack from below (re-segmenting an existing market as a low-cost player)
Example: Low-cost flights
Impact on strategy: Focus on offering a low-cost solution (that has a limited, but interesting enough feature set), while becoming profitable and striving for volume to benefit from economies of scale.
4. Existing market- attack from the top (re-segmenting an existing market by employing a niche strategy). This is a common market type for startups, but also the trickiest.
Example: LinkedIn (started as a social network targeted towards professional networking and connections)
Impact on strategy: Focus on delivering a more focused solution to a small but highly painful problem. The solution should provide enough value that customers will be willing to purchase and use an additional tool to solve that problem. The positioning and product strategy will require balancing the need to invest a lot to capture a niche and to be able to expand later on to a broader market.
Companies often engage in the following activities too early (i.e. before finding product-market fit). It is important to understand, that investing time or money in these activities before achieving PMF, will actually slow them down and cause them to burn more money:
An example that shows how this can go wrong happened in an early-stage startup I worked with. When I started the engagement, they had three paying customers and five salespeople.
Very quickly it was apparent that the product was filling a different need for each customer. This caused the company to go down many different directions resulting in a very ineffective sales process. The sales team blamed the slow enterprise sales cycles in that.
The company started scaling before there was product-market fit or even a path towards one and there were very painful consequences-
My next post will detail how to measure the impact of the other criteria- people, process and revenue on product maturity.
Lessons learned:
Originally published on medium