How The Coronavirus is Impacting The Job Market and How to Hedge Your Bets
a one-stop-shop for fintech transformation
It's currently coronavirus vs. the world, with cases popping up on nearly every continent. While the virus is having drastic effects on our daily habits, it also comes with a heavy impact on the job market.
The epidemic began in Wuhan, China in December. Not only did the coronavirus begin in one of the largest production hubs on the planet, but it spread to the rest of the world as well. However, thanks to rigorous quarantining efforts, China is back on track to having some sense of normalcy.
That said, the country is still suffering from an economic blow. This is both because of the virus spreading there, and because it stopped many of the countries which interact with China the most. China's economy is one of the foremost in the world
, but even it is struggling with the coronavirus.
But China's industry is not immune to global reality. Chinese consumers are an increasingly powerful force, yet cannot spur a full recovery. If Americans are still contending with the pandemic, if South Africa cannot borrow on world markets and if Europe is in recession, that will limit the appetite for Chinese wares. That means that even with the full restoration of Chinese production comes soon, there are simply no buyers for export goods. This is a long-term hit to the Chinese economy.
Here is a graph that shows that the business activity in China, after a sharp drop at the peak of COVID-19, quickly went into recovery. The indicator is the "Official manufacturing purchasing manager's index", the source is the "National Bureau of Statistics of China."
China is also the world's leader in terms of supply chain. As of this writing, the country holds a massive 25% of the planet's entire manufacturing industry. Of course, because the pandemic started there, that effect spread to a significant part of the world. In 2003, when atypical pneumonia was rampant, this indicator in the PRC was at 11%.
Above is another graph titled "The projected impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on global tech shipments in Q1 of 2020." As the center of world production of many products, China is one of the largest consumers of raw materials and energy. The situation with the epidemic not only affected the cost of oil, but other natural resources as well. Source: TrendForce
Because of its massive reach, China's halt in production and its drop in resource consumption, economic activity had reduced around the world even before the large-scale spread of the virus outside China. Of course, companies on all ends of the supply chain were affected by this.
This isn't to mention the Chinese domestic market for the service sector, represented by catering establishments, companies for organizing leisure, entertainment, public events, tourism, domestic services, etc.
Here is a graph from a Refinitiv article with a title "China Soybean imports by country" , measured in thousands of tons, source "Refinitiv Eikon".- published on 3 March 2020
This graph, on the example of soybean imports, shows that China has reduced the consumption of agricultural products, so the crisis has affected this sector of the world economy.
China is taking the brunt of the blow. It is still not yet clear how big the impact was. China's GDP recovery can go according to several scenarios — from quite a positive one to the most negative.
According to this chart, China's market value has an optimistic recovery rate. However, it's worth noting that the median prediction is still less than pre-coronavirus trends. The market is unlikely to recover fully in 2020. Source: Bloomberg
China's large economic role and the spread of the virus beyond its borders has triggered a chain reaction in the global economy.
World governments are implementing lockdowns and quarantines alongside economic boost packages aimed at combating the pandemic and alleviating any economic consequences. However, it is already clear that this will not be enough. It is now obvious that most areas in the world are facing a pandemic. China is an example of what awaits other countries.
However, it's tough to predict which states will suffer the same economic consequences as China. If every state where an epidemic occurs will halt all economic activity as China did, then the most negative scenario for the world's economy is possible. Below is a graph titled: "Percent Change in GDP Growth in 2020." Source: Bloomberg
Spas and personal care, clothing stores, travel agencies, bars, and clubs - all of these spaces are shutting down due to a lack of income.
Then there are the less thought of places like theme parks, which employ hundreds of people. These germ-infested areas are closing down left and right. The coronavirus is threatening the stability so many workers were dependent on. Disney, for example, was trading at around $150 per share toward the end of 2019. It dropped to $90 due to coronavirus.
This, of course, is partly due to nearly all of Disney's properties being hit by the virus. After all, the company's parks, cruises, and entertainment have all had to be shut down to various degrees. While it did launch the Disney+ streaming service this year, the platform was set to be at a loss for a few years before it could turn a profit. Nobody could have seen this pandemic coming, however.
Published by Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University USA (dated from 8.04.2020). The current data is tracked on the site The top 20 countries with confirmed infection cases
(from the highest to low cases on 8.04.2020) The current data is being tracked on the site
US, Spain, Italy, France ,Germany, China, Iran, United Kingdom, Turkey, Belgium, Switzerland, Netherlands, Canada, Brazil, Austria, Portugal, Korea, South, Israel, Russia, Sweden
The growing statistics show that the virus cases are growing tremendously fast and the infection is spreading around the world. That means that with the growing number of infected people in countries there will be rising unemployment statistics, hence the lack of job posts and an upcoming poverty growth among the population. Such a dramatic picture paints a very deplorable screenplay for those people who have no means to survive and maintain their families during the crisis and after it.
As of now, most countries are following a strict quarantine or going on full lockdown. The United States has declared a state of emergency, with President Trump spending $2 trillion in a stimulus package to bailout small businesses and citizens
Italy has been in a national lockdown since March 9, with the country asking citizens to limit their outside endeavors as much as possible. India is about to go on a full, closed-doors lockdown as well
. People all over are practicing "social distancing," and some restaurants are in "carry-out" mode. They're not letting anyone sit, but they are
selling food to keep an income going.
All of this is likely to continue for a while until a vaccine develops. That said, some are already getting tired of it. President Trump has hinted at scaling back restrictions
to boost the economy, for example. It remains to be seen if other countries will take a similar approach.
Regardless, the economy is going to see the effects of this plague for years. While the market is likely to recover, local communities are bound to lose some key companies, families will be impacted by the many deaths, and people's view on cleanliness is bound to change. After all, hand sanitizer sales went up 255% this February in the United Kingdom. This caused some companies to limit hand sanitizer purchases to 2 per person. In Malaysia, over $237,176 worth of sanitizer was sold in one week.
This doesn't change the fact that this recession comes at a time where many are already struggling to make ends meet, and the planet is dealing with one of the most divisive Presidents of the free world as well
A few weeks after the first case appeared, a national quarantine was imposed and overall enterprise revenue fell by 80-90%. Company management was forced to make cuts, as well, leading to the massive jump in unemployment of about 1000%.
Due to this, enterprises are forced to operate on their previously accumulated funds, the duration of which may differ depending on the industry. Below is a graph from a JPMorgan study
with the title "Cash buffer days vary substantially within industries," using the USA as an example.
The circumstances are of course individuals, however the picture can give an overall approximate picture. Source: JP Morgan Chase Job loss and social allowances
As of now, the stock market is crashing hard
, millions are being let go from their jobs, and small businesses are struggling to stay afloat. More specifically, nearly every "non-essential" industry is seeing a hit. Luxury brands are seeing a sales hit, breweries and restaurants are closing down with a 29% share price drop on the former in the United States. But e-commerce is booming
Workers in "offline" jobs are the most at risk, as the majority of them involve dealing with other people to some capacity. Not only does this expose employees, but if citizens are afraid to go outside, then local businesses like coffee shops will have no income. COVID-19 is directly threatening the stability of brick-and-mortar businesses.
Over 155,000 citizens in the state of Oregon alone are likely to have lost their jobs this week. Movie theaters, which are already threatened by streaming services like Netflix, have been forced to close as well. Though in the United States, they're being bailed out by the recent stimulus package. In total, a massive 3.28 million people in America filed for unemployment benefits due to this pandemic during the week of March 15th to the 21st. The week before that was 282,000.
The coronavirus has its dramatic effect on the job market in the USA just a few weeks after the first report of the infection. The blockdown has led to any business activity in the country that after exploded into an explosion of layoffs and hence the rising number of applications for the social allowances. People found themselves without a job and in a high need of income.
Conclusion1. If you are an employee, you are in danger
The frightening rise of unemployment in the world and the disappointing forecasts of the research centers are painting a very depressing future for the employees. They stay in the most risk zone and like no one should protect themselves and take care of hedging risks in advance.2. If you do not have passive income, you are in double danger
Insurance in this situation can be an alternative source of income: passive earnings, classic assets (stocks, bonds, metals, real estate) or digital assets (cryptocurrencies). Their presence will allow an employee not to be left without money in case of a job loss. The crisis has a particularly negative effect on small and medium businesses, which leads to a sharp reduction of the companies' working staff.3. Hedge the risks of job loss with passive income
Now is the time to learn new skills that are in demand on the job market, for example, learn how to code. A stock market analysis may also be applicable while sitting at home on quarantine. Even if you now have modest means of investing, the ability to work with the stock or cryptocurrency markets can be a big advantage after the job market stabilization.4. KickRef is an example of a program for creating a passive income online
The global crisis is shaping before our eyes and unemployment is pushing to transfer most of the labor resources into online. More than ever, the platforms for generating a passive income become relevant. For example, network marketing and project development by attracting new users to platforms such as KickRef
— the KickEX
crypto exchange referral program. Such resources can reduce the risk of losing the only source of income, as earnings are generated online on the Internet and from the collective efforts of a referral network. There are many ways to protect yourself from a pandemic and its consequences.
You can start looking for additional income today, use the Internet more actively and use all available resources in order to compensate for the financial risks of income loss in advance and protect yourself in these difficult times. Learn more about KickRef
and the KickEX
crypto exchange and start generating your passive stable income in a crisis right now!
Subscribe to get your daily round-up of top tech stories!