Does Google’s Willow Quantum Chip Put Bitcoin’s Cryptography at Risk?

As a Web3 writer, I tend to shy away from deep tech topics.

But when I heard Google’s latest announcement about their new quantum computing chip, Willow, I couldn’t look away.

The headline-grabbing claim?

A computational problem solved in 5 minutes that would take a classical supercomputer a staggering 10 septillion years to complete.

For context, that’s 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years — a number so vast that it makes the 13.8 billion-year age of the universe look like a lunch break.

Naturally, the buzz was immediate: “Quantum computing is here to crack Bitcoin!” “No encryption is safe!”

But hold your horses.

Willow’s significance isn’t about rendering our current security systems obsolete overnight.

It’s about a new way forward — for computing, for science, and yes, for crypto.

Let’s break it down.

What Exactly Is Google’s Willow?

Google’s Willow chip is a quantum computing breakthrough.

It’s not the largest quantum processor out there — it has 105 qubits. But what makes it revolutionary is how it deals with errors.

Why Errors Matter in Quantum Computing?

In traditional computers, bits represent either a 0 or a 1.

But quantum computers use qubits, which can represent both 0 and 1 simultaneously thanks to the principles of superposition and entanglement.

This ability lets quantum computers perform multiple calculations at once, potentially solving problems classical computers could never touch.

The problem?

Qubits are delicate.

They’re easily disturbed by their environment, which leads to errors.

And the more qubits you add, the more errors you typically get. This challenge has haunted quantum computing researchers for decades.

Willow changes the game by demonstrating that as you add more qubits, the number of errors actually decreases.

This is huge.

It’s a critical step toward building large-scale, reliable quantum computers — the kind that could reshape industries like drug discovery, battery development, and material science.

But where does that leave Bitcoin and crypto security?

Should Crypto Holders Be Worried?

The fear is simple: Quantum computers could theoretically break the cryptographic algorithms that secure Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin relies on two key pieces of encryption:

1 - SHA-256 for mining.

2 - ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) for transaction signatures.

Quantum computers could, in theory, brute-force these algorithms, rendering wallets and transactions vulnerable.

If someone could crack ECDSA, they could steal funds by forging signatures.

But here’s the thing: Willow isn’t that quantum computer. Not yet.

According to tech experts, including Kevin Rose (former Google product manager), cracking Bitcoin’s encryption would require a quantum computer with about 13 million qubits — a far cry from Willow’s 105 qubits.

So, no, you don’t need to sell your Bitcoin and go off-grid just yet.

Why Quantum Computing Still Matters for Crypto

Even though Willow can’t break Bitcoin’s encryption today, it’s a wake-up call.

It shows that quantum computing isn’t some sci-fi fantasy. It’s evolving rapidly.

And each breakthrough — like Willow’s error reduction — brings us closer to a world where quantum computers might pose a real threat to current cryptography.

https://x.com/adamscochran/status/1866314726030143606

The Timeline Is Shortening Crypto venture capitalist Adam Cochran put it succinctly: Quantum computing advancements have shaved 20 years off the timeline for quantum threats to Bitcoin. Another breakthrough like Willow, and we might be looking at a 10-year window to prepare.

This isn’t just about Bitcoin.

Ethereum, smart contracts, and other blockchain-based systems rely on similar cryptographic protections.

Quantum computing could jeopardize the entire Web3 ecosystem if we’re not ready.

How Crypto Can Defend Itself

Thankfully, the crypto community isn’t sitting idle.

There are already discussions around post-quantum cryptography — encryption methods designed to withstand quantum attacks.

1 - Upgrading Bitcoin’s Security

Crypto experts like Emin Gün Sirer, co-founder of Ava Labs, have suggested practical steps to protect Bitcoin: -

A - Sunsetting Outdated Formats

Early Bitcoins, mined by Satoshi Nakamoto, use an old format called P2PK (Pay-to-Public-Key).

Unlike modern wallets, this format exposes public keys, making it vulnerable to future quantum decryption.

Sirer recommends freezing these coins or setting a sunset date for P2PK transactions.

B - Implementing Post-Quantum Algorithms

Transitioning Bitcoin to quantum-resistant algorithms is complex but doable.

It would likely require a hard fork and widespread adoption of new wallet software.

2 - Ethereum’s Preparedness

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has already proposed a strategy for Ethereum’s transition to post-quantum security.

It would involve a hard fork and user cooperation to upgrade wallets, but it’s a clear and viable plan.

Quantum Computing: A Threat or an Opportunity?

While the threat to crypto security is real, quantum computing isn’t just about breaking things. It’s about building new possibilities.

Imagine a world where quantum computers can:

• Simulate complex chemical reactions to discover life-saving drugs.

• Optimize battery designs to extend electric vehicle range.

• Model financial systems to prevent market crashes. These breakthroughs could transform industries and unlock untold value. And yes, Web3 could benefit too.

  
  

Quantum computing could lead to more secure blockchains, faster consensus algorithms, and decentralized systems that are truly unbreakable.

The Real Takeaway

Google’s Willow isn’t here to kill Bitcoin. It’s here to remind us that technology evolves, and we need to evolve with it.

If you’re in Web3, now’s the time to:

• Stay Informed: Follow quantum computing advancements. They matter more than ever.
• Advocate for Post-Quantum Security: Encourage discussions and research around quantum-resistant encryption.
• Don’t Panic — Prepare: The future isn’t something to fear. It’s something to build. Quantum computing is coming. The question is: Will we be ready?

What are your thoughts on the quantum threat to crypto? Are we prepared, or is it time to hit the panic button?