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This paper is available on arxiv under CC 4.0 license. Authors: (1) Thomas Pethick, EPFL (LIONS) thomas.pethick@epfl.ch; (2) Wanyun Xie, EPFL (LIONS) wanyun.xie@epfl.ch; (3) Volkan Cevher, EPFL (LIONS) volkan.cevher@epfl.ch. Table of Links Abstract & Introduction Related work Setup Inexact Krasnosel’ski˘ı-Mann iterations Approximating the resolvent Last iterate under cohypomonotonicity Analysis of Lookahea Experiments Conclusion & limitations Acknowledgements & References 10 Acknowledgements This work was supported by Google. This work was supported by Hasler Foundation Program: Hasler Responsible AI (project number 21043). This work was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) under grant number 200021_205011. This project has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement n° 725594 - time-data). References Banach, S. Sur les opérations dans les ensembles abstraits et leur application aux équations intégrales. Fund. math, 3(1):133–181, 1922. Bauschke, H. H. and Combettes, P. L. Convex analysis and monotone operator theory in Hilbert spaces. CMS Books in Mathematics. Springer, 2017. ISBN 978-3-319-48310-8. Bauschke, H. H., Moursi, W. M., and Wang, X. Generalized monotone operators and their averaged resolvents. Mathematical Programming, 189(1):55–74, 2021. Bertsekas, D. P. Incremental proximal methods for large scale convex optimization. Mathematical programming, 129(2):163–195, 2011. Bianchi, P. On the convergence of a stochastic proximal point algorithm. In CAMSAP, 2015. Bravo, M. and Cominetti, R. Stochastic fixed-point iterations for nonexpansive maps: Convergence and error bounds. arXiv preprint arXiv:2208.04193, 2022. Brézis, H. and Lions, P. L. Produits infinis de résolvantes. Israel Journal of Mathematics, 29(4): 329–345, 1978. Cevher, V., Piliouras, G., Sim, R., and Skoulakis, S. Min-max optimization made simple: Approximating the proximal point method via contraction maps, 2023. URL https://arxiv.org/abs/ 2301.03931. Chavdarova, T., Pagliardini, M., Stich, S. U., Fleuret, F., and Jaggi, M. Taming GANs with Lookahead-Minmax. arXiv preprint arXiv:2006.14567, 2020. Combettes, P. L. Quasi-Fejérian analysis of some optimization algorithms. In Studies in Computational Mathematics, volume 8, pp. 115–152. Elsevier, 2001. Combettes, P. L. and Pennanen, T. Proximal methods for cohypomonotone operators. SIAM journal on control and optimization, 43(2):731–742, 2004. Diakonikolas, J., Daskalakis, C., and Jordan, M. I. Efficient methods for structured nonconvexnonconcave min-max optimization. In International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, pp. 2746–2754. PMLR, 2021. Eckstein, J. and Bertsekas, D. P. On the Douglas—Rachford splitting method and the proximal point algorithm for maximal monotone operators. Mathematical Programming, 55(1):293–318, 1992. Gidel, G., Berard, H., Vignoud, G., Vincent, P., and Lacoste-Julien, S. A variational inequality perspective on generative adversarial networks. arXiv preprint arXiv:1802.10551, 2018. Gorbunov, E., Loizou, N., and Gidel, G. Extragradient method: O (1/k) last-iterate convergence for monotone variational inequalities and connections with cocoercivity. In International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, pp. 366–402. PMLR, 2022a. Gorbunov, E., Taylor, A., Horváth, S., and Gidel, G. Convergence of proximal point and extragradientbased methods beyond monotonicity: the case of negative comonotonicity. arXiv preprint arXiv:2210.13831, 2022b. Grimmer, B., Lu, H., Worah, P., and Mirrokni, V. The landscape of the proximal point method for nonconvex–nonconcave minimax optimization. Mathematical Programming, pp. 1–35, 2022. Ha, J. and Kim, G. On convergence of Lookahead in smooth games. In International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, pp. 4659–4684. PMLR, 2022. Heusel, M., Ramsauer, H., Unterthiner, T., Nessler, B., and Hochreiter, S. GANs trained by a two time-scale update rule converge to a local Nash equilibrium. Advances in neural information processing systems, 30, 2017. Hsieh, Y.-P., Mertikopoulos, P., and Cevher, V. The limits of min-max optimization algorithms: Convergence to spurious non-critical sets. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 4337–4348. PMLR, 2021. Iusem, A. N., Pennanen, T., and Svaiter, B. F. Inexact variants of the proximal point algorithm without monotonicity. SIAM Journal on Optimization, 13(4):1080–1097, 2003. Korpelevich, G. Extragradient method for finding saddle points and other problems. Matekon, 13(4): 35–49, 1977. Krizhevsky, A., Hinton, G., et al. Learning multiple layers of features from tiny images. 2009. Lee, S. and Kim, D. Fast extra gradient methods for smooth structured nonconvex-nonconcave minimax problems. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 34:22588–22600, 2021. Luo, Y. and Tran-Dinh, Q. Extragradient-type methods for co-monotone root-finding problems. McMahan, B., Moore, E., Ramage, D., Hampson, S., and y Arcas, B. A. Communication-efficient learning of deep networks from decentralized data. In Artificial intelligence and statistics, pp. 1273–1282. PMLR, 2017. Miyato, T., Kataoka, T., Koyama, M., and Yoshida, Y. Spectral normalization for generative adversarial networks. arXiv preprint arXiv:1802.05957, 2018. Nemirovski, A. Prox-method with rate of convergence o (1/t) for variational inequalities with Lipschitz continuous monotone operators and smooth convex-concave saddle point problems. SIAM Journal on Optimization, 15(1):229–251, 2004. Nichol, A., Achiam, J., and Schulman, J. On first-order meta-learning algorithms. arXiv preprint arXiv:1803.02999, 2018. Obukhov, A., Seitzer, M., Wu, P.-W., Zhydenko, S., Kyl, J., and Lin, E. Y.-J. High-fidelity performance metrics for generative models in PyTorch, 2020. URL https://github.com/toshas/ torch-fidelity. Version: 0.3.0, DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4957738. Opial, Z. Weak convergence of the sequence of successive approximations for nonexpansive mappings. Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, 73(4):591–597, 1967. Patrascu, A. and Irofti, P. Stochastic proximal splitting algorithm for composite minimization. Optimization Letters, 15(6):2255–2273, 2021. Patrascu, A. and Necoara, I. Nonasymptotic convergence of stochastic proximal point methods for constrained convex optimization. The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 18(1):7204–7245, 2017. Pethick, T., Latafat, P., Patrinos, P., Fercoq, O., and Cevher, V. Escaping limit cycles: Global convergence for constrained nonconvex-nonconcave minimax problems. In International Conference on Learning Representations, 2022. Pethick, T., Fercoq, O., Latafat, P., Patrinos, P., and Cevher, V. Solving stochastic weak Minty variational inequalities without increasing batch size. In The Eleventh International Conference on Learning Representations, 2023. Pushkin, D. and Barba, L. Multilayer Lookahead: a nested version of Lookahead. arXiv preprint arXiv:2110.14254, 2021. Rockafellar, R. T. Monotone operators and the proximal point algorithm. SIAM journal on control and optimization, 14(5):877–898, 1976.

Stable Nonconvex-Nonconcave Training via Linear Interpolation: Acknowledgements & References

On War by Carl Von Clausewitz, is part of the HackerNoon Books Series. You can jump to any chapter in this book here . Inundations Book VI: Chapter XX B. Inundations Now we have still to consider inundations. As defensive means and also as phenomena in the natural world they have unquestionably the nearest resemblance to morasses. They are not common certainly; perhaps Holland is the only country in Europe where they constitute a phenomenon which makes them worth notice in connection with our object; but just that country, on account of the remarkable campaigns of 1672 and 1787, as well as on account of its important relation in itself to both France and Germany, obliges us to devote some consideration to this matter. The character of these Dutch inundations differs from ordinary swampy and impassable wet low lands in the following respects: 1. The soil itself is dry and consists either of dry meadows or of cultivated fields. 2. For purposes of irrigation or of drainage, a number of small ditches of greater or loss depth and breadth intersect the country in such a way that they may be seen running in lines in parallel directions. 3. Larger canals, inclosed by dykes and intended for irrigation, drainage, and transit of vessels, run through the country in all possible directions and are of such a size that they can only be passed on bridges. 4. The level of the ground throughout the whole district subject to inundation, lies perceptibly under the level of the sea, therefore, of course, under that of the canals. 5. The consequence of this is, that by means of cutting the dams, closing and opening the sluices, the whole country can be laid under water, so that there are no dry roads except on the tops of the dykes, all others being either entirely under water or, at least, so soaked that they become no longer fit for use. Now, if even the inundation is only three or four feet deep, so that, perhaps, for short distances it might be waded through, still even that is made impossible on account of the smaller ditches mentioned under No. 2, which are not visible. It is only where these ditches have a corresponding direction, so that we can move between two of them without crossing either, that the inundation does not constitute in effect an absolute bar to all communication. It is easy to conceive that this exception to the general obstruction can only be for short distances, and, therefore, can only be used for tactical purposes of an entirely special character. From all this we deduce 1. That the assailant’s means of moving are limited to a more or less small number of practicable lines, which run along very narrow dykes, and usually have a wet ditch on the right and left, consequently form very long defiles. 2. That every defensive preparation upon such a dam may be easily strengthened to such a degree as to become impregnable. 3. But that, because the defensive is so hemmed in, he must confine himself to the most passive resistance as respects each isolated point, and consequently must look for his safety entirely from passive resistance. 4. That in such a country it is not a system of a single defensive line, closing the country like a simple barrier, but that as in every direction the same obstacle to movement exists, and the same security for flanks may be found, new posts may incessantly be formed, and in this manner any portion of the first defensive line, if lost, may be replaced by a new piece. We may say that the number of combinations here, like those on a chessboard, are infinite. 5. But while this general condition of a country is only conceivable along with the supposition of a high degree of cultivation and a dense population, it follows of itself that the number of passages, and therefore the number of posts required or their defence, must be very great in comparison to other strategetic dispositions; from which again we have, as a consequence, that such a defensive line must not be long. The principal line of defence in Holland is from Naarden on the Zuyder Zee (the greater part of the way behind the Vecht), to Gorcum on the Waal, that is properly to the Biesbosch, its extent being about eight miles. For the defence of this line a force of 25,000 to 30,000 was employed in 1672, and again in 1787. If we could reckon with certainty upon an invincible resistance, the results would certainly be very great, at least for the provinces of Holland lying behind that line. In 1672 the line actually withstood very superior forces led by great generals, first Condé, and afterwards Luxembourg, who had under their command 40,000 to 50,000 men, and yet would not assault, preferring to wait for the winter, which did not prove severe enough. On the other hand, the resistance which was made on this first line in 1787 amounted to nothing, and even that which was made by a second line much shorter, between the Zuyder Zee and the lake of Haarlem, although somewhat more effective, was overcome by the Duke of Brunswick in one day, through a very skilful tactical disposition well adapted to the locality, and this although the Prussian force actually engaged in the attack was little, if at all, superior in numbers to the troops guarding the lines. The different result in the two cases is to be attributed to the difference in the supreme command. In the year 1672 the Dutch were surprised by Louis XIV., while everything was on a peace establishment, in which, as is well known, there breathed very little military spirit as far as concerned land forces. For that reason the greater number of the fortresses were deficient in all articles of material and equipment, garrisoned only by weak bodies of hired troops, and defended by governors who were either native-born incapables, or treacherous foreigners. Thus all the Brandenburg fortresses on the Rhine, garrisoned by Dutch, as well as all their own places situated to the east of the line of defence above described, except Groningen, very soon fell into the hands of the French, and for the most part without any real defence. And in the conquest of this great number of places consisted the chief exertions of the French army, 150,000 strong, at that time. But when, after the murder of the brothers De Witt, in August 1672, the Prince of Orange came to the head of affairs, bringing unity to the measures for national defence, there was still time to close the defensive line above-mentioned, and all the measures then adopted harmonised so well with each other that neither Condé nor Luxembourg, who commanded the French armies left in Holland after the departure of the two armies under Turenne and Louis in person, would venture to attempt anything against the separate posts. In the year 1787 all was different. It was not the Republic of seven united provinces, but only the province of Holland which had to resist the invasion. The conquest of all the fortresses, which had been the principal object in 1672, was therefore not the question; the defence was confined at once to the line we have described. But the assailant this time, instead of 150,000 men, had only 25,000, and was no mighty sovereign of a great country adjoining Holland, but the subordinate general of a distant prince, himself by no means independent in many respects. The people in Holland, like those everywhere else at that time, were divided into two parties, but the republican spirit in Holland was decidedly predominant, and had at the same time attained even to a kind of enthusiastic excitement. Under these circumstances the resistance in the year 1787 ought to have ensured at least as great results as that of 1672. But there was one important difference, which is, that in the year 1787 unity of command was entirely wanting. What in 1672 had been left to the wise, skilful, and energetic guidance of the Prince of Orange, was entrusted to a so called Defence Commission in 1787, which although it included in its number men of energy, was not in a position to infuse into its work the requisite unity of measures, and to inspire others with that confidence which was wanted to prevent the whole instrument from proving imperfect and inefficient in use. We have dwelt for a moment on this example, in order to give more distinctness to the conception of this defensive measure, and at the same time to show the difference in the effects produced, according as more or less unity and sequence prevail in the direction of the whole. Although the organisation and method of defence of such a defensive line are tactical subjects, still, in connection with the latter, which is the nearest allied to strategy, we cannot omit to make an observation to which the campaign of 1787 gives occasion. We think, namely, that however passive the defence must naturally be at each point in a line of this kind, still an offensive action from some one point of the line is not impossible, and may not be unproductive of good results if the enemy, as was the case in 1787, is not decidedly very superior. For although such an attack must be executed by means of dykes, and on that account cannot certainly have the advantage of much freedom of movement or of any great impulsive force, nevertheless, it is impossible for the offensive side to occupy all the dykes and roads which he does not require for his own purposes, and therefore the defensive with his better knowledge of the country, and being in possession of the strong points, should be able by some of the unoccupied dykes to effect a real flank attack against the columns of the assailant, or to cut them off from their sources of supply. If now, on the other hand, we reflect for a moment on the constrained position in which the assailant is placed, how much more dependent he is on his communications than in almost any other conceivable case, we may well imagine that every sally on the part of the defensive side which has the remotest possibility of success must at once as a demonstration be most effective. We doubt very much if the prudent and cautious duke of Brunswick would have ventured to approach Amsterdam if the Dutch had only made such a demonstration, from Utrecht for instance. About HackerNoon Book Series: We bring you the most important technical, scientific, and insightful public domain books. This book is part of the public domain. Carl von Clausewitz (2006). On War. Urbana, Illinois: Project Gutenberg. Retrieved https://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/1946/pg1946-images.html This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org , located at https://www.gutenberg.org/policy/license.html .

The Inundations

THE TULIPOMANIA

THE SUBMERGENCE OF THE OLD WORLD

As climate change plays havoc with weather forecasting across the globe, one company's long-term goal is to save thousands of lives by ensuring early and timely warnings of these severe weather events are reaching people across the globe. Rainbow Weather’s Mission Using artificial intelligence, is on a mission to provide meteorological forecasts at this crucial time when severe weather events cause billions of dollars in damages each year, as reported in USA Today. Rainbow Weather The planet was plagued by $42 billion worth of weather disasters in 2022 alone, and the all-time total damage wrought by weather disasters sits at $360 billion, with 39% of that total being insured damages, according to insurance broker Gallagher Re in its annual report. The global Weather Forecasts market was valued at $2.8 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach $4.6 billion by 2029, at a CAGR of 7.3% according to Stats Market Research. The World Meteorological Organization reports that "just 24 hours’ notice prior to an impending weather hazard can cut the ensuing damage by 30 percent, calling early warnings the “low-hanging fruit” of climate change adaptation because of their tenfold return on investment. " That is why investors have ploughed almost $1.5 million of funding into Rainbow Weather to date, to take on more established apps and forecasters who often fall short of accurate forecasts. As reported in Vox.com, Apple’s weather app is ‘pretty much useless’ as it cannot distinguish between ‘light rain’ and ‘rain’, that the percentages it spits out feel ‘bogus’, and to never trust it when it tells you what time the rain will stop. Apple bought the weather forecasting app Dark Sky three years ago, and it seems that the tech giant’s investment is not paying off yet. However, investment in Rainbow Weather is paying off. The first round included private investors as well as Venture Capitalist firms Kolos Ventures, Verras Capital, and Melnichek Investments. Furthermore, the company which trades as Rainbow Meteo Technologies and is based in Poland, has had further financial backing from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. What sets Rainbow Weather apart from Apple and other weather apps is its advanced AI modeling which delivers superior weather predictions based on a wide range of data sources (from satellites and meteorology stations to user reports and shared barometer data), beating the competition in both speed and precision. According to the company's internal analysis, Rainbow Weather has already achieved 3.5 percentage points of rain prediction precision over Apple Weather in the US (where Apple has the best coverage) and 9.5 percentage points over AccuWeather worldwide. Precision was calculated based on the share of rain accurately predicted within a 30-minute forecast window. To put these numbers into perspective, that means for every million weather app users, 35,000 to 95,000 more people will get correctly notified about an upcoming shower if they opt for Rainbow Weather. Words From the CEO Rainbow Weather CEO Alexander Matveenko shares the story of how the company was born: "I was swimming in Sri Lanka when suddenly it began to rain quite heavily. The downpour started to overwhelm me, and I wasn't sure I was going to make it to the shore. This experience made me realize how critical timely weather warnings can be. My co-founder Yuri Melnichek had a story of his own. He almost had his passport destroyed while on a hike when all weather apps failed to predict a sudden rain. After discussing both of these incidents we decided to create a new weather forecast tech based on machine learning algorithms that would be able to better predict highly variable local weather events." Their first product on the market is the mobile app for iOS and Android which provides super-accurate hyperlocal forecasts notifying users about upcoming rain and snowfalls, storms and hurricanes, and their movements on the map. The app is picking up steam with half a million downloads and great reviews from both users and the press. However, the most stellar review comes from Tatsiana Khakhelka, Associate for SME Finance & Development at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development: “The EBRD’s Star Venture program targets promising start-ups to unleash their full potential. The EBRD supports them with world-class business advice and access to finance to strengthen their performance and accelerate their life cycle. Star Venture assigns the start-ups advisory projects tailored to their specific competencies and needs. Across 23 countries, Star Venture has nurtured 550+ early-stage companies, spanning diverse regions from Eastern Europe to the Western Balkans. One of these rising stars is Rainbow Meteo Technologies. After a rigorous selection process, this start-up company was shortlisted as a finalist in the EBRD’s Star Venture program supported by the European Union, and the Bank continues to provide advisory assistance. I am personally inspired by Rainbow’s product and the team’s professionalism and look forward to their future endeavors.” Disclaimer: Parts of this article have previously appeared on other news media platforms Also published here

Rainbow Weather, a Deep AI Driven Tech Startup, Aims to Take on the Tech Giants With Only $1.5m

রেইনবো ওয়েদার, একটি গভীর AI চালিত টেক স্টার্টআপ, মাত্র $1.5 মিলিয়ন দিয়ে টেক জায়ান্টদের সাথে লড়াই করার লক্ষ্য

Rainbow Weather, ein tiefgreifendes KI-gesteuertes Technologie-Startup, will es mit nur 1,5 Millionen US-Dollar mit den Technologiegiganten aufnehmen

Rainbow Weather, una startup tecnológica impulsada por la IA, tiene como objetivo enfrentarse a los gigantes tecnológicos con solo 1,5 millones de dólares

Rainbow Weather, une startup technologique basée sur l'IA profonde, vise à affronter les géants de la technologie avec seulement 1,5 million de dollars

रेनबो वेदर, एक डीप एआई संचालित टेक स्टार्टअप, जिसका लक्ष्य केवल $1.5m के साथ टेक दिग्गजों से मुकाबला करना है

ディープ AI 主導のテクノロジースタートアップ、Rainbow Weather がわずか 150 万ドルでテクノロジー巨人に対抗することを目指す

딥 AI 기반 기술 스타트업 Rainbow Weather, 단 150만 달러로 거대 기술 기업을 상대하는 것을 목표로 함

Rainbow Weather, uma startup de tecnologia baseada em IA profunda, pretende enfrentar os gigantes da tecnologia com apenas US$ 1,5 milhão

Rainbow Weather, технологический стартап, основанный на искусственном интеллекте, стремится бросить вызов технологическим гигантам всего за 1,5 миллиона долларов

Derin Yapay Zeka Odaklı Teknoloji Startup'ı Rainbow Weather, Sadece 1,5 Milyon Dolarla Teknoloji Devleriyle Mücadeleyi Hedefliyor

Rainbow Weather, một công ty khởi nghiệp công nghệ dựa trên AI sâu, đặt mục tiêu cạnh tranh với những gã khổng lồ công nghệ chỉ với 1,5 triệu USD

Rainbow Weather，一家深度人工智能驱动的科技初创公司，目标仅用 150 万美元挑战科技巨头

On the Economy of Machinery and Manufactures by Charles Babbage is part of the HackerNoon Books Series. You can jump to any chapter in this book . On Over Manufacturing here Chapter 24. On Over Manufacturing One of the natural and almost inevitable consequences of competition is the production of a supply much larger than the demand requires. This result usually arises periodically; and it is equally important, both to the masters and to the workmen, to prevent its occurrence, or to foresee its arrival. In situations where a great number of very small capitalists exist—where each master works himself and is assisted by his own family, or by a few journeymen—and where a variety of different articles is produced, a curious system of compensation has arisen which in some measure diminishes the extent to which fluctuations of wages would otherwise reach. This is accomplished by a species of middlemen or factors, persons possessing some capital, who, whenever the price of any of the articles in which they deal is greatly reduced, purchase it on their own account, in the hopes of selling at a profit when the market is better. These persons, in ordinary times, act as salesmen or agents, and make up assortments of goods at the market price, for the use of the home or foreign dealer. They possess large warehouses in which to make up their orders, or keep in store articles purchased during periods of depression; thus acting as a kind of flywheel in equalizing the market price. The effect of over-manufacturing upon great establishments is different. When an over supply has reduced prices, one of two events usually occurs: the first is a diminished payment for labour; the other is a diminution of the number of hours during which the labourers work, together with a diminished rate of wages. In the former case production continues to go on at its ordinary rate: in the latter, the production itself being checked, the supply again adjusts itself to the demand as soon as the stock on hand is worked off, and prices then regain their former level. The latter course appears, in the first instance, to be the best both for masters and men; but there seems to be a difficulty in accomplishing this, except where the trade is in few hands. In fact, it is almost necessary, for its success, that there should be a combination amongst the masters or amongst the men; or, what is always far preferable to either, a mutual agreement for their joint interests. Combination amongst the men is difficult, and is always attended with the evils which arise from the ill-will excited against any persons who, in the perfectly justifiable exercise of their judgement, are disposed not to act with the majority. The combination of the masters, on the other hand, is unavailing, unless the whole body of them agree, for if any one master can procure more labour for his money than the rest, he will be able to undersell them. If we look only at the interests of the consumer, the case is different. When too large a supply has produced a great reduction of price, it opens the consumption of the article to a new class, and increases the consumption of those who previously employed it: it is therefore against the interest of both these parties that a return to the former price should occur. It is also certain, that by the diminution of profit which the manufacturer suffers from the diminished price, his ingenuity will be additionally stimulated; that he will apply himself to discover other and cheaper sources for the supply of his raw material; that he will endeavour to contrive improved machinery which shall manufacture it at a cheaper rate; or try to introduce new arrangements into his factory, which shall render the economy of it more perfect. In the event of his success, by any of these courses or by their joint effects, a real and substantial good will be produced. A larger portion of the public will receive advantage from the use of the article, and they will procure it at a lower price; and the manufacturer, though his profit on each operation is reduced, will yet, by the more frequent returns on the larger produce of his factory, find his real gain at the end of the year, nearly the same as it was before; whilst the wages of the workman will return to their level, and both the manufacturer and the workman will find the demand less fluctuating, from its being dependent on a larger number of customers. It would be highly interesting, if we could trace, even approximately, through the history of any great manufacture, the effects of gluts in producing improvements in machinery, or in methods of working; and if we could shew what addition to the annual quantity of goods previously manufactured, was produced by each alteration. It would probably be found, that the increased quantity manufactured by the same capital, when worked with the new improvement, would produce nearly the same rate of profit as other modes of investment. Perhaps the manufacture of iron(1*) would furnish the best illustration of this subject; because, by having the actual price of pig and bar iron at the same place and at the same time, the effect of a change in the value of currency, as well as several other sources of irregularity, would be removed. At the present moment, whilst the manufacturers of iron are complaining of the ruinously low price of their produce, a new mode of smelting iron is coming into use, which, if it realizes the statement of the patentees, promises to reduce greatly the cost of production. The improvement consists in heating the air previously to employing it for blowing the furnace. One of the results is, that coal may be used instead of coke; and this, in its turn, diminishes the quantity of limestone which is required for the fusion of the iron stone. The following statement by the proprietors of the patent is extracted from Brewster's Journal, 1832, p. 349: Comparative view of the quantity of materials required at the Clyde iron works to smelt a ton of foundry pig-iron, and of the quantity of foundry pig-iron smelted from each furnace weekly Fuel in tons of 20 cwt each cwt 112 lbs; Iron-stone; Lime-stone
Cwt; Weekly produce in pig-iron Tons With air not heated and coke; 7;3 1/4; 15; 45 2. With air heated and coke; 4 3/4; 3 1/4; 10; 60 3. With air heated and coals not coked; 2 1/4; 3 1/4; 7 1/2; 65 Notes. 1. To the coals stated in the second and third lines, must be added 5 cwt of small coals, required to heat the air. The expense of the apparatus for applying the heated air will be from L200 to L300 per furnace. No coals are now coked at the Clyde iron works; at all the three furnaces the iron is smelted with coals. The three furnaces are blown by a double-powered steam-engine, with a steam cylinder 40 inches in diameter, and a blowing cylinder 80 inches in diameter, which compresses the air so as to carry 2 1/2 lbs per square inch. There are two tuyeres to each furnace. The muzzles of the blowpipes are 3 inches in diameter. The air heated to upwards of 600 degrees of Fahrenheit. It will melt lead at the distance of three inches from the orifice through which it issues from the pipe. The increased effect produced by thus heating the air is by no means an obvious result; and an analysis of its action will lead to some curious views respecting the future application of machinery for blowing furnaces. Every cubic foot of atmospheric air, driven into a furnace, consists of two gases.(2*) about one-fifth being oxygen, and four-fifths azote. According to the present state of chemical knowledge, the oxygen alone is effective in producing heat; and the operation of blowing a furnace may be thus analysed. The air is forced into the furnace in a condensed state, and, immediately expanding, abstracts heat from the surrounding bodies. Being itself of moderate temperature, it would, even without expansion, still require heat to raise it to the temperature of the hot substances to which it is to be applied. On coming into contact with the ignited substances in the furnace, the oxygen unites with them, parting at the same moment with a large portion of its latent heat, and forming compounds which have less specific heat than their separate constituents. Some of these pass up the chimney in a gaseous state, whilst others remain in the form of melted slags, floating on the surface of the iron, which is fused by the heat thus set at liberty. The effects of the azote are precisely similar to the first and second of those above described; it seems to form no combinations, and contributes nothing, in any stage, to augment the heat. The plan, therefore, of heating the air before driving it into the furnace saves, obviously, the whole of that heat which the fuel must have supplied in raising it from the temperature of the external air up to that of 600 degrees Fahrenheit; thus rendering the fire more intense, and the glassy slags more fusible, and perhaps also more effectually decomposing the iron ore. The same quantity of fuel, applied at once to the furnace, would only prolong the duration of its heat, not augment its intensity. The circumstance of so large a portion of the air(3*) driven into furnaces being not merely useless, but acting really as a cooling, instead of a heating, cause, added to so great a waste of mechanical power in condensing it, amounting, in fact, to four-fifths of the whole, clearly shews the defects of the present method, and the want of some better mode of exciting combustion on a large scale. The following suggestions are thrown out as likely to lead to valuable results, even though they should prove ineffectual for their professed object. The great difficulty appears to be to separate the oxygen, which aids combustion, from the azote which impedes it. If either of those gases becomes liquid at a lower pressure than the other, and if those pressures are within the limits of our present powers of compression, the object might be accomplished. Let us assume, for example, that oxygen becomes liquid under a pressure of 200 atmospheres, whilst azote requires a pressure of 250. Then if atmospheric air be condensed to the two hundredth part of its bulk, the oxygen will be found in a liquid state at the bottom of the vessel in which the condensation is effected, and the upper part of the vessel will contain only azote in the state of gas. The oxygen, now liquefied, may be drawn off for the supply of the furnace; but as it ought when used, to have a very moderate degree of condensation, its expansive force may be previously employed in working a small engine. The compressed azote also in the upper part of the vessel, though useless for combustion, may be employed as a source of power, and, by its expansion, work another engine. By these means the mechanical force exerted in the original compression would all be restored, except that small part retained for forcing the pure oxygen into the furnace, and the much larger part lost in the friction of the apparatus. The principal difficulty to be apprehended in these operations is that of packing a working piston so as to bear the pressure of 200 or 300 atmospheres: but this does not seem insurmountable. It is possible also that the chemical combination of the two gases which constitute common air may be effected by such pressures: if this should be the case, it might offer a new mode of manufacturing nitrous or nitric acids. The result of such experiments might take another direction: if the condensation were performed over liquids, it is possible that they might enter into new chemical combinations. Thus, if air were highly condensed in a vessel containing water, the latter might unite with an additional dose of oxygen, (4*) which might afterwards be easily disengaged for the use of the furnace. A further cause of the uncertainty of the results of such an experiment arises from the possibility that azote may really contribute to the fusion of the mixed mass in the furnace, though its mode of operating is at present unknown. An examination of the nature of the gases issuing from the chimneys of iron-foundries, might perhaps assist in clearing up this point; and, in fact, if such enquiries were also instituted upon the various products of all furnaces, we might expect the elucidation of many points in the economy of the metallurgic art. It is very possible also, that the action of oxygen in a liquid state might be exceedingly corrosive, and that the containing vessels must be lined with platinum or some other substance of very difficult oxydation; and most probably new and unexpected compounds would be formed at such pressures. In some experiments made by Count Rumford in 1797, on the force of fired gunpowder, he noticed a solid compound, which always appeared in the gunbarrel when the ignited powder had no means of escaping; and, in those cases, the gas which escaped on removing the restraining pressure was usually inconsiderable. If the liquefied gases are used, the form of the iron furnace must probably be changed, and perhaps it may be necessary to direct the flame from the ignited fuel upon the ore to be fused, instead of mixing that ore with the fuel itself: by a proper regulation of the blast, an oxygenating or a deoxygenating flame might be procured; and from the intensity of the flame, combined with its chemical agency, we might expect the most refractory ore to be smelted, and that ultimately the metals at present almost infusible, such as platinum, titanium, and others, might be brought into common use, and thus effect a revolution in the arts. Supposing, on the occurrence of a glut, that new and cheaper modes of producing are not discovered, and that the production continues to exceed the demand, then it is apparent that too much capital is employed in the trade; and after a time, the diminished rate of profit will drive some of the manufacturers to other occupations. What particular individuals will leave it must depend on a variety of circumstances. Superior industry and attention will enable some factories to make a profit rather beyond the rest; superior capital in others will enable them, without these advantages, to support competition longer, even at a loss, with the hope of driving the smaller capitalists out of the market, and then reimbursing themselves by an advanced price. It is, however, better for all parties, that this contest should not last long; and it is important, that no artificial restraint should interfere to prevent it. An instance of such restriction, and of its injurious effect, occurs at the port of Newcastle, where a particular Act of Parliament requires that every ship shall be loaded in its turn. The Committee of the House of Commons, in their Report on the Coal Trade, state that, 'Under the regulations contained in this Act, if more ships enter into the trade than can be profitablv employed in it, the loss produced by detention in port, and waiting for a cargo. which must consequently take place, instead of falling, as it naturally would, upon particular ships, and forcing them from the trade, is now divided evenly amongst them; and the loss thus created is shared by the whole number.' Report, p. 6. It is not pretended, in this short view, to trace out all the effects or remedies of over-manufacturing; the subject is difficult, and, unlike some of the questions already treated, requires a combined view of the relative influence of many concurring causes. NOTES: The average price per ton of pig iron, bar iron, and coal, together with the price paid for labour at the works, for a long series of years, would be very valuable, and I shall feel much indebted to anyone who will favour me with it for any, even short, period. The accurate proportions are, by measure, oxygen 21, azote 79. A similar reasoning may be applied to lamps. An Argand burner, whether used for consuming oil or gas, admits almost an unlimited quantity of air. It would deserve enquiry, whether a smaller quantity might not produce greater light; and, possibly, a different supply furnish more heat with the same expenditure of fuel. Deutoxide of hydrogen, the oxygenated water of Thenard. About HackerNoon Book Series: We bring you the most important technical, scientific, and insightful public domain books. This book is part of the public domain. Charles Babbage (2003). On the Economy of Machinery and Manufactures. Urbana, Illinois: Project Gutenberg. Retrieved https://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/4238/pg4238.html This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included with this eBook or online at , located at . www.gutenberg.org https://www.gutenberg.org/policy/license.html

On Over Manufacturing

The Mail Order Merchant

As warfare evolves from sticks and stones to nuclear armaments and beyond, digital tools like scamming and social media offer novel and significant impacts on the battlefield. New digital tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) developed by Ukraine in response to Russia’s February 2022 incursion mark the beginning of social media warfare, characterized not just by cyber confrontations but how the digital translates into action on the battlefield. The use of digital platforms will only grow and further expose how these technologies can both aid and compromise military efforts in modern warfare. Russia’s experience with Ukrainian-leveraged digital assets serves as a cautionary tale for both individuals and militaries about the perils and possibilities inherent in our connected world. As (IW) gains prominence in modern military strategy, the role of digital tools like social media and cyber-enabled scamming cannot be overstated. Social media platforms serve as an ideal ecosystem for executing a wide range of IW activities, from disinformation campaigns aimed at sowing division among enemy lines to civil-military operations that gauge public sentiment and build community relations. In the digital world, the battlefront’s traditional geographic confinement disappears, and the environment is persistently dynamic. irregular warfare Digital tools are particularly potent for small-scale, non-state actors who might not have the resources for traditional warfare but can nevertheless exert a significant impact through well-coordinated online campaigns, such as Ukrainian activists who use scamming techniques to convince to firebomb their own military offices. In the age of IW, the power dynamics on the battlefield are no longer solely determined by physical might; the impact of influence and information will continue to grow and allow for certain aspects of warfare to be crowdsourced, with ordinary civilians taking on a more prominent role in the era of irregular warfare. Russians The challenges faced by Ukraine on the battlefield have provided invaluable lessons for military strategists regarding and the . “Once the war is over, we will definitely write a textbook,” Vice-Admiral Oleksiy Neizhpapa, the head of Ukraine’s navy, “And we’ll send it to all the NATO military academies.” Ukraine is already applying many recently learned lessons with new digitally-enabled TTPs. The West, including and beyond NATO, can learn much from Ukraine’s social media application of irregular warfare in their ongoing war with Russia. conventional warfare future of war proclaimed Romance and espionage: how online dating apps betrayed Russian soldiers Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian soldiers have revealed information from their to AI-generated of Ukrainian women. Some soldiers inadvertently disclosed their tactical locations through images while seeking companionship. One woman ingeniously two Tinder accounts, setting a different location near the border for each account and, referencing the difference between locations of shared matches, “triangulate(d) the exact locations of her matches.” As a result, she reported over seventy such profiles and their locations to Ukrainian authorities. Tinder dating app profiles fake profiles employed devised a ruse using fake profiles of appealing women across multiple social media platforms, such as Telegram, to ensnare Russian soldiers stationed near Melitopol. According to the , the Russian soldiers were persuaded to share photos of themselves on duty. Upon receiving these images, the hackers pinpointed their origin to a secluded Russian military base near Melitopol in southern Ukraine. This intelligence was subsequently relayed to the Ukrainian military, leading to an assault on the base days later. Ukrainian hackers Financial Times On Russian Navy Day in July 2023, Ukrainian hackers targeted Russian sailors by sending them a video with good “wishes” via apps. According to the Ukrainian military’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR), these videos depicted Ukrainian drones and missiles attacking Russian warships, including the . In addition to any potential psychological impact of the footage, the message contained malware that provided the hackers with access to the sailors’ phone data, subsequently transferring confidential information to Ukrainian servers. Most sailors unwittingly expressed gratitude before opening the deceptive video. messaging Moskva cruiser Activists use scamming techniques to target Russia's military infrastructure and offices. Russian officials attribute a series of at their recruitment centers to “phone scammers” who specifically target the elderly to attack Russian army recruitment offices. According to Russian intelligence services, scammers target vulnerable citizens “who found themselves in difficult circumstances and are easy to influence.” By convincing them to take out a loan or share their bank details, they are subsequently convinced to attack a recruitment office in an attempt to recover their losses. For example, in Russian-occupied Crimea, scammers duped a schoolteacher into throwing a flammable object at a recruitment office. Similarly, in St. Petersburg, a 66-year-old woman was lured into taking out a loan with the false promise that her debt would be cleared if she attacked a with a Molotov cocktail. Digital scammers do not only target the elderly. Teenagers in Russia, who claim they are not aware of who their financier may be, were recruited via to ignite railway junction boxes in exchange for money. fire-bombings recruitment office social media The rising significance of open-source intelligence (OSINT) In August 2022, the Wagner group faced an attack in Popasna, Ukraine. A local pro-Russian journalist inadvertently the Wagner base’s location through images shared on Telegram. One such image, now removed, disclosed the base’s exact address. Armed with this information, Ukrainian forces demolished the site. A Ukrainian official hinted that the strike’s precision was possibly aided by the shared Telegram images. This incident epitomizes how social media-derived open-source intelligence (OSINT, information procured from public sources) is strategically leveraged in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. revealed When location-based apps lead to physical attacks In March 2017, a Royal Navy member’s run inside His Majesty’s Naval Base, Clyde (HMNB Clyde), a high-security base housing the UK’s nuclear deterrent, was tracked via the , leading to concerns about revealing sensitive military locations. has shown that data from fitness apps might inadvertently reveal the locations of hidden military bases by mapping consistent exercise patterns and patrol paths within or around such bases. These apps, which often connect to devices such as Fitbits and Garmin watches, allow users to log their exercise routes. A feature designed for friendly competition might unintentionally expose the precise activities and identities of staff within high-security military zones. Strava app Research In July 2023, data from the app turned deadly. A Le Monde from July 11, 2023, suggests that Strava may have inadvertently played a role in the assassination of Captain Stanislav Rzhitsky. The Russian officer was ambushed and on July 10, 2023, in a park in Krasnodar, Russia. Rzhitsky formerly led a submarine that was implicated in a 2022 strike on the Ukrainian city of that resulted in 27 civilian deaths. report killed Vinnytsia Rzhitsky’s leadership role in this act made him a target for Ukrainian intelligence. disclosed that Rzhitsky was a regular Strava user, often sharing his routes. The consistency in his routes led to speculation that his killers might have used the app to predict his movements on the day of his assassination. Strava’s user agreement highlights that unless data-sharing settings are restricted, user activity can be accessed by anyone online, including details like distance, runtime, and maps of routes. Le Monde , a Ukrainian government app originally designed to facilitate access to public services, was repurposed for wartime efforts. It enables Ukrainians to both report the presence of Russian soldiers in their vicinity and manage tasks like uploading tax returns, renewing passports or providing students with bus fare discounts. Among its features is the “e-Enemy” function, which lets Ukrainian citizens about Russian troop movements, providing invaluable data to the Ukrainian military for strategizing their defense and countermeasures. Diia relay information The evolving face of modern warfare Carl von Clausewitz’s posits that, while the fundamental nature of war remains constant in the human experience, its execution or character is . He viewed war as a complex social activity, and in the 21st century, our interconnectedness expands our connectivity to war as individuals through the digital realm. The increasing democratization of warfare, facilitated by technology, is shifting the focus towards the role of ordinary civilians, like the women who set up virtual “ ” using dating apps to get Russian soldiers to reveal their location. As digital tools continue to enter the fray, regular citizens will assume an even more important role in today’s warfare. On War ever-changing honey traps This metamorphosis of warfare, propelled by the digital age, underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive reevaluation of how we in the West approach conflict in the 21st century and ensure we apply lessons from the Russo-Ukrainian war. The battlefield is no longer confined to physical terrain; it now includes the vast, interconnected realm of the internet, where each click or post could be as consequential as any traditional military maneuver. Therefore, it is vital for the Western alliances and NATO to adapt and develop new strategies that respond to this evolving threat landscape – the next compromised service member could be a NATO soldier who accidentally leaks vital information on social media to our adversaries. In an all-out war, it could be our own populations that are targeted by scammers to attack military offices. We must learn lessons early on from the digital irregular warfare we are seeing in the Russo-Ukrainian war and begin strategizing new approaches to protect ourselves. We must develop an understanding of how to leverage these tools more effectively in the future. Also published . here

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