Kertos

Financial markets are chaotic. So chaotic, even, that many economists and investors believe market trends to be the product of ‘random walks’ and that prices cannot be predicted (see generally Malkiel). But randomness shouldn't be worrisome. In fact, random price movements can be good. Gaussian random walk, an assumption used by an options pricing model called Black-Scholes, treats intervals of an asset’s price over time as independent variables. By doing so, the changes in price over time, or the returns of an asset, are assumed to be normally distributed. Otherwise stated, “If transactions are fairly uniformly spread across time, and if the number of transactions per day, week, or month is very large, then the Central Limit Theorem leads us to expect that these price changes will have normal or Gaussian distributions” (Fama, 399). When an asset's returns are normally distributed, the probabilities of those returns are known. Knowing these probabilities can give investors a reliable framework accounting for the risk of holding said asset. When it comes to bitcoin, much has been said about how risky it is. The purpose of this article is to explore how to frame risk and to test how well traditional assumptions, implicit in derivatives pricing, apply to bitcoin. 

Kurtosis and Bitcoin: A Quantitative Analysis 

This +700-page, $16 book is a summarization of the +200 interviews that Tim Ferriss has done on his podcast.


38 Lifehacks From "Tools of Titans" by Tim Ferriss

Ukraine's battlefields have driven the hypersonic drone development race across the world.


The Hypersonic Drone Market: How the Axis of Innovation Is Forming Around It

While conventional expectations are that HDR quality is better than SDR quality, this paper finds that viewers' preference depends heavily on the display device

HDR or SDR? A Study of Scaled and Compressed Videos: Objective Assessment

Build a real-time event-driven app with Node.js and Kafka on Heroku. Follow this step-by-step guide to set up, deploy, and manage your application efficiently.

Node.js Tutorial: How to Build a Simple Event-Driven Application With Kafka

This study considers a bivariate jump-diffusion model to describe Bitcoin price dynamics and the number of Google searches affecting the price.

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