The National Weather Service has issued winter weather advisories for 15 New Jersey counties that take effect at 10 p.m. Friday, but snow may arrive a little later.

N.J. weather: When will snow start falling? Latest forecast for up to 5 inches of snow. - nj.com

The outlook was also supported by improvement in certain electronics end-markets like smartphones and personal computers, and analysts highlighted a diversified portfolio that sets up the company for further gains. "Applied is well-positioned to benefit from multiple upcoming technology inflections ...

Applied Materials hits record high on strong forecast from AI boost

The coming snowstorm now merits a "winter storm watch" from the National Weather Service.

Forecast boosts projected Friday night snow totals: Check latest map - pennlive.com

It's one of auto racing's biggest days of the year, and weather will likely be a factor. - Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com

Daytona 500 Forecast: Rain Likely Sunday | Weather.com

Downpours, flooding and landslides are possible for the holiday weekend and beyond across California and in the Bay Area. Here's a timeline of what to expect.

Big California storms to bring heavy rain, snow to these areas

Up to several inches could pile up overnight into early Saturday; the snow could fall quite heavily for a time.

D.C.-area forecast: Increasing clouds ahead of accumulating snow tonight - The Washington Post

Prepare to get wet this weekend in the Orlando area.

Weekend washout! Here’s what to know about your Central Florida forecast

Thursday is expected to be a break in wet weather ahead of a rainy and snowy weekend.

Northern California Forecast: Dry Thursday expected ahead of wet weekend

Gold price recovered some ground on Thursday, as it reclaimed the $2000 mark due to falling US Treasury bond yields.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD brights and surpasses $2000 amid mixed US economic data

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Despite not exhibiting the immediate bullish response many had anticipated in the wake of the Bitcoin Spot ETF , Bitcoin's price has seen a remarkable surge of 100% over the past year. approvals However, the ETF approvals set a precedent for as an asset class, and with the next Bitcoin halving expected midway through April this year, there is plenty of reason to be positive about this year’s price development. Bitcoin Investors Expecting a Bullish 2024? Most predictions by institutions and experts within and outside the crypto sphere forecast that BTC will soar greatly in 2024. I have collected a large number of public calls and predictions, which I will present below. Institutional Forecasts CoinFund: $250,000 - $500,000 CoinFund, a prominent venture capital firm in the crypto space, holds one of the most bullish predictions. In an email to CNBC, Seth Ginns, the company's managing partner, mentioned that BTC could rally up to $500,000 in 2024. He cited factors such as an inverse correlation with the dollar and yields, BTC Spot ETF inflows, and the potential approval of Ether Spot ETFs later in the year. “Bitcoin has a strong inverse correlation with the dollar and real yields, and both are now going down. We also expect the follow through inflows post-launch of the BTC spot ETF, as well as growing excitement around the likely approval of ETH (ether) spot ETFs later in 2024, will be quite meaningful.” Bernstein: $150,000 Private wealth management firm Bernstein predicts that BTC could reach $150,000 by 2025. This estimate was based on the possibility of an ETF approval, which has now materialized. According to a note shared by Bernstein's analyst Gautam Chhugani last year, ETFs are expected to attract approximately 10% of Bitcoin's supply. “You may not like Bitcoin as much as we do, but a dispassionate view of Bitcoin as a commodity suggests a turn of the cycle.” Pantera Capital: $148,000 Pantera Capital conducted an analysis of the shift in the stock-to-flow ratio. The findings revealed that the upcoming halving in 2024 is poised to exert a more substantial influence on diminishing the new supply percentage (47%) compared to the 2020 halving (43%). “The next halving is expected to occur on April 20, 2024.  Since most bitcoins are now in circulation, each halving will be almost exactly half as big a reduction in new supply.  If history were to repeat itself, the next halving would see bitcoin rising to $35k before the halving and $148k after.” CoinShares: $141,000 Following the approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF, the price might rally up to $141,000 within the next 12 months based on a Fund Flows Model published by CoinShares' Head of Research James Butterfill. The foundation of the model rests on a cautious assumption, as indicated by Galaxy's , suggesting that spot Bitcoin ETFs could constitute a market valued at $14.4 trillion. If merely 10% of the investors holding these funds decide to allocate 1% of their wealth, the resulting capital influx would exceed $14.4 billion in the first year. report Matrixport: $125,000 In a note sent out last year, Matrixport predicted that BTC's price will rally up to $125,000 by the end of 2024 based on previous cycle price actions. “Historically, the years when Bitcoin mining rewards were halved were generally bullish: 2012 (+186%), 2016 (+126%), and 2020 (+297%). As miners tended to hoard Bitcoins before each halving, prices increased by +200%, which would project Bitcoin reaching $125,000.” Standard Chartered: $100,000 Last year, Standard Chartered doubled down on its prediction that BTC’s price will hit $100,000 by the end of this year. Some of the factors cited as potential bullish catalysts by the bank include “turmoil in the banking sector in March this year that helped to “re-establish Bitcoin’s use as a decentralized scarce digital asset,” approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF and the expected Bitcoin halving event. ETC Group: $100,000 According to ETC’s Group 2024 outlook, Bitcoin’s price could hit $100,000 this year. This prediction is based on several factors, including the halving, Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics, and the adoption curve. “Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics imply that BTC’s supply is significantly scarcer, and accumulation has been more pronounced this cycle than during the last cycle.” Bitwise: $80,000 Bitwise expects BTC's upward trajectory to continue into 2024, with the price surging past $80,000, based on two major catalysts: Bitcoin Spot ETF approvals and the halving event. “Bitcoin outperformed all major asset classes in 2023, rising 128% while the S&P 500 returned 21%, gold returned 12%, and bonds returned 2%.2 We expect that trend to continue in 2024, with bitcoin trading above $80,000 and setting a new all-time high.” VanEck: All-time High One of the 15 crypto market predictions by VanEck is that Bitcoin will climb back to its all-time high in Q4 2024. The main argument supporting this prediction is the political developments expected to take place; around 45% of the world’s population, including the U.S. will go into elections this year. “Bitcoin will climb a Presidential-sized wall of worry. The percentage of the global population voting in legislative and presidential elections will hit an all-time high above 45% in 2024. This high level of important elections augurs high volatility and the prospect of significant changes.” Messari: $600,000 in the long term In the 2023 crypto thesis report, Messari acknowledges that it might be difficult to predict BTC’s price in a shorter time frame. However, based on the ‘digital gold’ narrative, this crypto analytics firm predicts BTC’s price could eventually soar up to $600,000. “We probably won’t see another 100x for bitcoin, but the asset could easily outperform other established asset classes once again in 2024. Eventual parity with gold would yield a price per BTC of over $600,000.” Expert Insights Cathie Wood (ARK Invest CEO): $1.5 million by 2030 Following the approval of 11 Bitcoin Spot ETFs earlier this month, including the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, Cathie Wood recently reiterated in a CNBC interview that her base case scenario is BTC surging to $600,000 by the end of this decade or going higher to $1.5 million under more optimistic conditions. Arthur Hayes (Former BitMEX CEO): $1 million The former BitMEX CEO has consistently maintained a highly optimistic outlook on BTC. In a recent tweet, he predicted that BTC's price will reach $1 million, driven by a potential shift in policy by the Fed, which, in turn, could trigger a rally in risk-on assets. “At this point, there is no excuse not to be long crypto. How many more times must they tell you that the fiat in your pocket is a filthy piece of trash? Believe in the Lord, and he shall set you free.” Samson Mow (JAN3com CEO): $1 million A Bitcoin enthusiast since the early days, Samson Maw predicts that Bitcoin's price could soon surge to $1 million. This projection is based on various fundamental factors that he argues are yet to be priced in, including ETF approvals, the halving, increased nation-state adoption, renewed quantitative easing (QE), and the multiplier and Veblen effect. Michael Saylor (Microstrategy CEO): $350,000 As of December 2023, MicroStrategy owned a total of 189,150 Bitcoins, establishing itself as one of the largest BTC hodlers. The company’s CEO and Bitcoin enthusiast, Michael Saylor, anticipates that Bitcoin's price will increase tenfold once responsible custodians begin managing Bitcoin. This shift is already underway, especially with the approval of spot ETFs. Tim Draper (Venture Capitalist): $250,000 In an interview with Coin Bureau towards the end of last year, American Venture Capitalist Tim Draper reiterated his prediction that BTC’s price will soon hit $250,000. This estimate is based on Bitcoin’s underlying value proposition as an asset that can also be used for transactional purposes and its decentralized nature. “Having a bank and government decide on what currency is good is not as effective as having a bitcoin where there is a trusted third party, which is hundreds of thousands of nodes making sure the transaction was done properly.” Max Keiser (Bitcoin Community): $220,000 For a long time, Max Keiser has been calling for $220,000, and following last year’s price action and the looming macro uncertainty, he recently doubled down on this prediction. “Keep in mind, Bitcoin trades at these levels AFTER social unrest and societal breakdown are irreversibly causing havoc. You have to prepare for higher prices AND economic collapse.” Tone Vays (Crypto Analyst): $200,000 A renowned analyst in the crypto space, Vays has previously predicted that BTC could surge to $200,000 or higher sometime in 2025. However, in a recent analysis, he that BTC is likely to retrace back to around $39,000 before it can regain momentum. forecasted Mike Novogratz (Galaxy Digital CEO): All-time high Back in 2021, Galaxy Digital's CEO predicted that Bitcoin's price would reach $500,000 this year. And in a more recent interview with CNBC, Mike Novogratz stated that he expects the next milestone to be breaking the all-time high of $69,000 this year and wouldn't be surprised if BTC's price climbed even higher. Plan B: $16K-$65 range Based on the stock-to-flow model, Plan B estimates that Bitcoin’s price will hover around $16K-$65K during the 2024 halving, after which it will trade between $65K-$524K for the next four years. At 2012 halving most bitcoin was <$16. At 2016 halving most BTC was in $256-$1024 range. At 2020 halving most BTC was in $4k-16k range. At 2024 halving most BTC will be in $16k-$65k range. I would not be surprised if, in the next 4 years, most BTC will transfer in the $65k-$524k range. Larry Fink (Blackrock CEO): No specific target, bullish on fundamentals BlackRock's CEO, Larry Fink, is swiftly gaining recognition as a Bitcoin bull, and with the company securing approval from the SEC, it's unsurprising that his sentiments toward BTC are notably bullish. Here are some of his insights on Bitcoin from a recent interview with Fox: If you’re fearful of your government or worrying your government is devaluing the currency, then you could see this as a great potential long-term store of value. It’s like digital gold. It is a ledger, but it’s an international ledger that’s cross-border. It’s bigger than any government. The advent of the Bitcoin ETF is an example that we’re legitimizing this asset class. Stan Druckenmiller (American Billionaire): Bitcoin is worth an investment Speaking during the Robin Hood NYC 2023 Fireside Chat, Stan Druckenmiller expressed his opinion about Bitcoin, likening it to gold’s appeal as a store of value. “I’m 76 years old. I own gold. I was surprised that Bitcoin got going. But, you know – it’s clear that the young people look at it as a store of value because it’s a lot easier to do stuff with. The young people have all the money… So, I like them both [BTC and gold]. I don’t own any Bitcoin, to be frank. But I should.” Stay Updated - Follow me on Twitter! Enjoyed these insights? There's more where that came from. Follow me on for daily tidbits and updates. Twitter/X Also published . here

Bitcoin Price Projections 2024: Insights From Experts and Institutional Forecasts

2023 Review of Social Media Trends There continues to be a and private communities wherein users are sharing in DMs or closed communities such as Slack, Discord, WhatsApp, Messenger group chats, etc. as opposed to posting to their public-facing timelines. userbase shift to “Dark Social” The lack of safety and moderation tools provided by platforms means that end users are having a very poor experience. They are fed up with bots and dogpiling. People have found that it is safer to share an opinion in a community that knows them and doesn’t seek to misinterpret their intentions. If you happen to misspeak or try out a hot take to clarify your own thoughts on the matter, the people in your closed circle know you well enough to know your intentions and can challenge you without it escaping your sphere of influence and becoming a larger cancellation. This shift to Dark Social can frustrate marketers because there could be bumps in sales that current analytics tools may not be able to explain. Sharing within closed communities can lead to strong word-of-mouth gains for some. There has been with the advent of X Premium/Twitter Blue, Meta Verified and Ad Free options, and Snapchat+. This will continue across all platforms. movement towards paid subscriptions As For You Pages, timelines, and feeds become increasingly clogged with paid content placement, users might be willing to pay for an ad-free experience or for paid-exclusive premium features. ? The Death of Twitter/X There has been so much speculation about the big changes at leading to the death of the platform, but the situation has not been as dire as the “doom and gloomers” had initially forecasted. It is true that CEO Elon Musk’s behavior has been erratic, and there has not been good follow-through on publicly-stated plans, which has driven away brands and prompted advertisers to pull their funds from X and re-invest on other platforms. Twitter/X The changeover to the x.com domain broke back-end analytics so marketers and social media managers have been “flying blind” without access to the data they had previously relied upon to fine-tune their content strategies. There is ample publicly-available data to support claims that bot activity has increased on the platform and that users have not been spending as much time on the app or have abandoned it altogether. Additionally, X currently has no data security team. Giving X access to any form of payment information is ill-advised at this time. Threads, T2, Bluesky, Mastodon, etc. have not lived up to the promise of being a full . Twitter replacement The widely-anticipated launch of Threads has been viewed by some to be a failure due to the sharp drop in active users after an initially impressive uptake. The platform, at launch, lacked many basic features and had geographically-restricted access which put a damper on adoption rates. Mastodon has seen widespread adoption among tech workers, but non-tech consumers found the setup process to be too intimidating and complicated. Bluesky has struggled with individual users not being able to find their niche communities. ByteDance launched a fulfillment service called to compete with Amazon and Meta Commerce, but it struggled. TikTok Shops Software glitches in the rollout of TikTok Shops negatively impacted the small businesses that were early adopters leading to a poor experience for both sellers and buyers. This led sellers to send up the alarm in their communities prompting others to halt their plans to use the feature for direct sales. It was a huge stumble out of the starting gate and uptake has been slow ever since. TikTok broke trust with the creators they were relying on to make the launch of the tool a success, and they are struggling to recover. HarperCollins and WH Smith launched a test program in partnership with TikTok Shop UK in 2022 to allow users to order books directly from videos without leaving the app in an attempt to capitalize on the impact that has had on the sale of certain titles. Since the initial press coverage of the launch of this partnership, things have gone quiet, so the assumption is that publishers have still not been successful in using the platform’s commerce tools for direct-to-consumer fulfillment. On the flip side of that coin, record labels have been effectively using Meta Commerce to boost both physical and digital album sales. Booktok launches have been the biggest social media marketing success stories of 2023 Creator-led consumer goods Prime from Logan Paul, Skims from Kim Kardashian, and Feastibles from Mr. Beast were giant successes because of the trust that influencers have built up over time with their audiences. Similarly, in publishing, titles like by B. Dylan Hollis, a by Danny Freeman, by Mercury Stardust, the Trans Handy Ma’am, etc. have been topping bestseller lists. Baking Yesteryear Danny Loves Past Safe and Sound continues to be the most engaged-with form of content across all platforms. Live video Live video can have a huge barrier to entry for many would-be creators, but there are so many creative workarounds for people who prefer not to have their faces on camera. Creators have been using voice-over only, blocking their faces with large microphones, using sock puppets or paper cutouts of an avatar of themselves, etc., to avoid doing a full “face reveal” and protect their identities while still building audiences on social media through both streaming platforms and on short-form video platforms that have live video features. 2024 Social Media Trends Forecast The future of is still bright. text-based “micro-blogging” platforms The launch of Threads in the EU will be a big boost to the platform. The addition of accessibility features and a continuous improvement of user experience will be big determining factors in userbase growth over time. Given how unpredictable the CEO of X is and the somewhat dire forecasts for the future of the platform’s revenue sources, shifting away from investing too much energy into growing your audience on X makes sense. Elon Musk’s behavior Text-based micro-blogging platforms still lead image-based platforms in driving traffic to “owned media” sites due to robust support of links. Even when links are de-emphasized by the algorithm, users still see better traffic statistics from text-based platforms like X and Facebook than from short-form video platforms and image-based platforms like Snapchat and Instagram. The major challenge for brands on social media will continue to be moving towards using platforms for instead of strictly for raising brand awareness. conversion This is why we’re seeing so many commerce tools come online and why companies like Meta have shifted their focus away from communities with huge layoffs in the Facebook Groups teams. Social media, however, is not a storefront. It was built for having conversations and sharing ideas, not for making purchases, so it’s trying to be something it’s not and was never intended to be in service of market pressures. Expert Matt Navarro thinks TikTok will have an easier time trying to become Amazon than Amazon will have trying to become TikTok but having an existing logistics infrastructure in place may mean his prediction is incorrect. has been gaining a lot of traction in Asia on all platforms that support live video (mostly Instagram and TikTok), but there is still low market penetration in the US. Live Shopping Multi-level marketing schemes were early adopters of live shopping in the US when Facebook Live came online in 2016, so that may have left US consumers with a poor impression of social commerce. Amazon is trying to tap into social commerce by partnering with Meta and Snapchat to add  features to their e-commerce platform that mimic social media platforms. These changes are geared towards bringing more live shopping to the Amazon app. Similarly, LinkInBio is implementing tools that will facilitate direct sales. Expect TikTok Shops to continue to be pushed heavily in the For You Page algorithm, and watch for ByteDance’s foray into publishing as they’re expected to launch their own imprint and begin direct book sales on the app. is coming to multiple platforms utilizing location data to customize your feed in real-time. Nearby Feed This was one of the main strengths of Snapchat circa 2018, but expect data privacy challenges to slow integration into more platforms. - Influencer marketing has outpaced ad spend and will continue to take a larger share of advertising budgets, but still, only 4% of creators make six figures. The Creator Economy New subscription tools on LinkedIn, YouTube, and X are trying to give content creators more ways to charge for access, but many still rely on third-party platforms such as Patreon, Substack, OnlyFans, and others such as Five.Me. Many content creators will likely try to diversify their income streams through publishing contracts and product launches in 2024. is the Wild West. Short Form Video Monetization YouTube has suffered three straight quarters of ad revenue declines (NOT LOSSES, just declining growth). Per analysis from Logically Answered, this is largely an effect of YouTube Shorts not being able to be monetized as effectively as long-form video and a shift towards short-form video taking away market share from long-form content. YouTube continues to be the most stable platform for creators to monetize their output. The TikTok Creator Fund did not live up to its promise and is being replaced with The Creativity Program. Monetization on the Reels Play program is still invitation-only, and creators have very little insight into the analytics behind their payouts, but this program is expected to expand, and Meta should bring more reporting features online in the future. will allow creators to automate and streamline processes like copywriting so they’re able to publish content more frequently. AI-powered large language model tools Generative AI tools are making some tasks that used to require the involvement of highly-skilled specialists more accessible to everyone, which could lead to an overall increase in output (and also an intensification of the squeeze on creators to do more and more with a finite time resource). Spammers will be early adopters and everyone else will be feeling the pressure to develop new skills like writing effective AI prompts and researching what the best options are amid the rapidly expanding suite of new tools. More bulk-created content will lead to a higher signal-to-noise ratio for thoughtful, long-form content to break through. Expect less overall reach on public posts across all platforms due to cluttered feeds. Improvements in will continue to drive customer service successes via social. Designing conversations will be a needed skill for digital marketers to learn. chatbots Generative AI images and video are improving at a rapid rate, with new tools expected to be released to the public in 2024. Tech giants, including Microsoft, Google, and Meta, are continuing to make huge investments in artificial intelligence. , but there are liability concerns surrounding the copyrights on the contents of the datasets that these machine-learning tools have been trained on. Expect more landmark lawsuits to be filed and the public to begin making  calls for an increase in the transparency of where training datasets have originated. For AI tools to be useful, users must be able to trust their output which requires high quality input. Platform integration of AI-driven tools will be a big growth sector Malicious making the rounds on social media will continue to be a big problem for free and fair elections and for prominent public figures’ reputation management. deepfakes AI avatar technology continues to improve and will allow more creators to begin using live video anonymously. Expect more augmented reality to infiltrate digital commerce sites like Warby Parker’s virtual try-on. Trends such as the “make it more” image prompts will continue to make waves on social networks. in Europe and elsewhere have had a big impact on platforms and will continue to be a major focus. Regulatory challenges Privacy concerns and data security compliance will need major investments from US-based entities if they want to continue to operate in jurisdictions that are investing in passing laws to protect their citizens’ rights. Rapid-Fire Platform Predictions for 2024: will continue to add functionality. Adding in-app scheduling will be a game-changer. An API is coming, which will mean third-party app integrations including off-platform scheduling. Improvements in accessibility tools like Alt Text and Voice Messaging have already made the app much more usable and this trend will continue. The addition of translations will be a big step forward. Threads doesn’t have much of an identity currently. It hasn’t distinguished itself with any unique features. Threads will try to woo back advertisers. There will be more focus on video on X and a shift toward payment systems, transaction management, and banking. There has been no indication that there will be new data security hiring. The prediction is that X usage will continue to flag, and the company will be less and less profitable in future. X will keep its focus on online commerce and expanding messaging services but will face more regulatory challenges in multiple jurisdictions. Keep an eye on The Creativity Program and improvements in search features as the platform continues to challenge Google as an information source. TikTok ’s universal inbox will be a model for all other platforms that are trying to capitalize on the shift to dark social. WhatsApp will continue to grow its user base and reap the benefits of the expanded features they’ve rolled out in recent years. They are planning to add AI-integrated features. LinkedIn is still hurting financially from the failure to launch of the Metaverse, but their Ad-Free subscription has seen decent uptake and their investments in messaging and acquisition of WhatsApp are paying off. Facebook is too noisy with bot activity and poorly targeted ads which is driving users away. Whether or not they have more to offer in 2024 than continuing to clone the popular features of other apps is yet to be seen. Instagram ’s robust content moderation has continued to serve it well in terms of attracting and retaining advertisers. It’s a place where brands feel safe, but the modes of moderation have had  the effect of stifling creativity. We’ve all seen the creators trying to have a serious conversation about certain topics who’ve had to dance around the issue by using euphemistic language to avoid de-monetization. This creates a poorer experience for the audience and hopefully YouTube will be able to build some nuance into their automated content moderation tools with improvements from machine learning tools. YouTube has put a huge investment into its augmented reality virtual try-on tool, but it’s not quite ready for primetime yet. Pinterest

Social Media Trends: 
2023 Review & 2024 Forecasting

This question is asked by every representative of the IT sphere. Last year, we prepared an article about 5+ trends that will be relevant in 2023, and this time, we decided not to break the tradition. Developers, analysts, testers, designers, IT consultants, and HR at Usetech shared their opinions on what technology trends influenced their field in 2023 and what will be relevant in 2024. Please note that your opinion may be different from that of our employees. And this is normal: every specialist has a different view, experience, and approach to work. So, if you have something to add, feel free to write about it in the comments. It will be interesting to look at different points of view and discuss them with colleagues. In this article, we highlighted the key trends of 2023 in development, analytics, testing, DevOps, HR, and design, and Usetech experts talked about the forecasts for 2024, shared analytics, statistics, and a list of useful resources to keep up to date with all the news. According to Sergey Alexandrov, IT consultant at Usetech, the technology sector is rapidly evolving, and 2024 promises to be a landmark year for innovation. As 2023 has shown, one of the key trends is the rapid growth of Artificial Intelligence (AI). McKinsey Global Institute's projections of a possible $4.4 trillion a year increase in corporate profits due to AI underscores its strategic importance. More and more companies are beginning to actively incorporate generative AI into everyday applications. In addition, one important trend, according to Sergey, is the growth of the software as a service (SaaS) market. The Zippia report forecasts indicate its continuous increase, reaching 18% per year. At the same time, Gartner also tells us that companies' spending on software has increased to 12.9% and on data centers to 4.7%, which has become higher than forecasted. "Next year promises a continuation of important trends. Rising costs for IT services and AI-enabled software will drive up security costs and will be a priority for companies. The increasing need for data protection will create a favorable environment for cybersecurity innovation. The field of AI will also remain relevant. It is expected that AI adoption will start to have a significant impact on business processes, changing the approach to automation and improving business efficiency," — says Sergey. — And if you want to keep up to date with the latest technology news, it's important to follow the leading resources. International publications such as TechCrunch and Wired provide an extensive overview of technology news." Some applications of blockchain, according to Sergey, especially in the context of cryptocurrencies, are losing relevance. Scalability issues and high power consumption raise questions about the feasibility of using this technology in some areas. Neural networks rule the world. Perhaps there is no person who has not heard about the development of neural networks this year. And these are not empty words: discussions about the positive and negative impact of neural networks and AI have been active in the technology community this year. For example, Forbes wrote about it, speculating on what the active development of AI and neural networks will lead to. Our colleague, Alexander Sinichkin, Head of the Development Group, notes that neural networks are penetrating everywhere and becoming indispensable assistants for humans. This is a kind of industrial resolution if you can call it that. Alexander notes the demand for neural networks next year as well. Artificial Intelligence does not give up its position, as noted by Stanislav Bykov, Senior Developer at Usetech: "In the field of technology and development this year, I discovered the possibilities of artificial intelligence. Of course, it has been actively developing for several years, and for me, it was somewhere "near.” But having tried its capabilities, I realize that it is a very powerful tool, which, in skillful hands, has almost limitless possibilities. I hope that not only next year but the next few years will see the continued development of artificial intelligence in many areas." And here are the trends and forecasts highlighted by Ilya Smirnov, Head of the AI/ML Department at Usetech: "Right now, we are witnessing a technological breakthrough in the application and updating of LLM models. Every self-respecting large corporation, from the position of a development leader, has either already created and presented its LLM model or plans to do so in the next year, 2024. At the same time, the areas of LLM implementation are already quite numerous. Companies are trying to implement LLM in support of chatbots; there are cases of implementation for generating responses to legal requests. A very good context search engine can be organized on the basis of LLM. Actually, most of the solutions, such as writing documentation and writing simple front-end solutions based on prototypes in Figma, will allow developers to spend more time on correcting texts rather than composing them from scratch. In terms of development, I think that the strongest implementation will be at the level of autotest generation. There are already successfully implemented projects on writing simple code autotests. As a result of this symbiosis of LLM and IT specialist, developers will have more time and opportunity to write effective code or cover more complex logical functionality with tests". Shall we talk about the DevOps sphere? Evgeny Kiselev, Senior DevOps Engineer, notes the following: " — Cloud platforms such as AWS, Azure, GCP, and Alibaba Cloud are becoming increasingly popular among DevOps teams as they offer flexibility, scalability, and cost savings. — Containerization tools such as Deckhouse, Docker, Kubernetes, and OpenShift continue to evolve and improve, becoming more affordable and easier to use. — Artificial intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) are starting to be incorporated into DevOps to automate tasks, improve code quality, and optimize workflows. You could even say this year has seen a kind of "breakthrough" of this technology. — DevSecOps, which integrates security processes into development and operations, is becoming increasingly important for application and data security. — DevOps tools such as Jenkins, GitLab, Ansible, and Terraform continue to get better and better." Of course, it's hard to make predictions for 2024, as something new is constantly emerging, but we can highlight a couple of points. And you can add to them in the comments: "It is very difficult to predict, however, we can assume that the following trends in DevOps will be in demand: — Automation of application development and deployment processes and the development of Kubernetes, Docker, Helm, and Ansible container orchestration tools - it has been and will remain. — The use of AI and ML to optimize workflows will only get better. — Applying the Cloud-Native concept of easy scalability and portability of applications across platforms. — Implementing security and compliance practices (security, compliance). — Increasing the role of DevOps culture, training, and involving a large number of employees in development processes. — Development of tools to monitor and analyze application performance in real-time. — Improve tools for collaboration and communication between development and operations management teams. — Create tools for the automatic generation of documentation and reports on infrastructure status. — Increased use of hyper-converged infrastructures (HCI) and software-defined networking (SDN)". But there are things that lose their relevance and do not "take root" in the sphere. And Evgeny talks about it: "The approach of using exclusively automated tools for all stages of development and deployment is losing its relevance. It is not always optimal, as in some cases, manual operations can be more efficient and flexible. Rather than abandoning manual operations altogether, DevOps professionals have been looking for ways to integrate them into the development process, enabling better interaction between people and tools." What do you think about this, DevOps professionals? What's new in front-end? Alexander Goncharov, Head of the Development Group at Usetech, tells us the following: "The year 2023 in front-end can perhaps be called the year of management and architecture. Teams are getting larger, projects are getting more complex, and all this needs to be managed productively. Different methodologies and architectural approaches are increasingly used to divide teams into smaller ones by domain and beyond. Compared to last year, more companies and products have adopted the approach of dividing monolithic applications into micro-frontends and then combining them into a whole application or combining existing applications into a meta-application so that the user has a unified experience. It is always more convenient to maintain and develop separate parts by small teams, and with this architectural approach, "conditionally painless" integration of old legacy solutions is also possible. What will happen next year? As I said above — projects are growing and becoming more complex. I think more and more materials will appear on FSD (Feature Sliced Design), and more teams will apply this methodology on projects. It will allow code to be separated and grouped by subject area, which again makes support and development easier, as well as synchronization between teams. I also think more and more projects will switch from Webpack to Vite and Turbopack builders. Because as projects grow, not only the cognitive load on leads and developers increases, but also the load on build systems." Trends in mobile development Speaking about trends in various spheres, we can't miss the mobile development sphere. That's why we turned to Anna Zharkova, Lead Developer at Usetech, and shared her comments with you: "What's new in mobile development? I can mention the following developments: — WWDC 2023. Smart augmented reality helmets, VisionOS. New products Swift 5.9. This year, Apple emphasized the development of augmented reality technologies and presented its new development: a helmet running on VisionOS. Unfortunately, it will not be possible to feel the novelty until 2025. The developers also paid attention to the Swift language. Version 5.9 includes such cool features as macros for code generation and the Observation framework. It is worth noting the SwiftData framework as an analog and replacement for CoreData, interactive iOS widgets. — KMP. Name change from KMM and release to stable. This fall, what many developers and admirers of Kotlin Multiplatform have been waiting for happened. The technology moved to stable and became fully ready for use in Production. It means that many problems were solved: multithreading was improved last year, and this year, there were many improvements in memory handling and garbage collection. Also, one of the goals of the roadmap for next year, the development company to formulate direct interaction between Kotlin and Swift. The change of abbreviation is intended to fix the technology not only for mobile development but also for desktop and web. — Compose Multiplatform Alfa. A very cool and promising technology for creating a common cross-platform UI in KMP applications. The same issues as Jetpack Compose are relevant for it (state saving, performance issues, memory handling, etc.), but it also has its own cross-platform Challenges. — ChatGPT and analogs. Despite the fact that these technologies don't seem to be directly related to mobile development, they are actively used as tools to find solutions and generate and simplify work. The result is largely controversial, as is the fact of sharpening one's codebase in general, but nevertheless, this is becoming more and more popular. What's new in the testing industry? We did not bypass our colleagues from the testing sphere and asked them what they remembered this year and what trends they could highlight in their working sphere. Alexandra Novitskaya, Senior Test Engineer, tells us about new developments in the testing sphere: "Optimization of testing processes allows to significantly reduce the routine part of work in the tasks of a tester, and the improvement of technologies and tools used allows each tester to choose and adapt his tool to the project tasks. In addition, the variety of sources of specialist development allows a tester not only to stay afloat but also to choose new vectors of development in the IT sphere". Next year, in Alexandra's opinion, the first place will be occupied by the integration of AI and ML as tools for analyzing and automating processes and data in them. This will not only prevent errors and improve testing accuracy but also optimize development processes, making them more transparent and controllable. Some more of the trends of the coming year will be: — Shift-Left testing and integration with DevOps as one of the testing quality control tools to improve the interaction between development and testing teams, As well as to accelerate development phases by automating testing processes, continuous integration, and continuous deployment pipelines. — Security and load testing as tools to ensure reliable security and data protection and high system performance to mitigate risks when launching new services and changing the architecture of highly loaded systems. HR trends in 2024: what to expect? The labor market is constantly changing, and HR departments of companies must be ready to quickly adapt to new requirements and needs. Vera Petrovicheva, Team Lead Recruitment, told us what will be relevant in 2024. As you can see from the first point, AI is persistently penetrating (and to some extent, has already penetrated) the HR sphere: "Artificial Intelligence and automation of hiring and HR processes will be one of the trends in the next year. It will reduce the time and costs of routine tasks and improve the accuracy of candidate forecasting. Flexible forms of work, including telecommuting, freelance, and project work, remain in demand among many companies. This allows them to quickly adapt to changing market needs and attract talent from around the world. I can't help but talk about ethics and social responsibility in HR practices. Companies will aim to create a work environment that promotes the well-being and development of their employees while also considering the impact of their activities on the environment and society as a whole. Another thing to note is the increased importance of soft skills and personality traits in hiring and assessing staff. Companies will assess not only professional skills but also leadership skills, communication skills, adaptability, etc. And, of course, staff training and development as a tool to retain talent and increase their productivity. Companies will invest in training their employees so that they can develop and grow with the company. Conclusion The year 2024 promises to be a watershed year in technology. The rise of AI and SaaS are becoming dominant trends, defining the future of business processes and innovation. However, it is important to remember that successful companies are those that adapt to change in time and skillfully use the latest technologies for their development. Also published . here

Forecasting What is Still to Come in Tech in 2024

In 2023, 27 million people found their couples in Social Discovery Group apps, with over 1 million users maintaining long-term relationships online. The time users spend on our dating apps has increased by 35% since 2022. What are these impressive stats about? This year, SDG products have significantly influenced global loneliness statistics. How social discovery products can help to cure the loneliness epidemic and what are the trends for 2024 - continue reading. The loneliness epidemic is not a myth Loneliness is a significant societal concern in today’s world. According to a by The U.S. Surgeon General’s Advisory, only 39% of U.S. adults feel deeply connected to others emotionally. Surprisingly, fewer than 20% of those struggling with chronic loneliness recognize it as a significant issue. This decline in perceived connection is evident in the decrease in trust levels among Americans, which dropped from 45% in 1972 to around 30% in 2016. study “Technology was supposed to connect people, but, in fact, it has increased our loneliness. Screens, in some way, have separated us from each other because connection doesn't necessarily mean attention, empathy, or love,” said Dmitry Volkov, Ph.D, Founder and CEO of Social Discovery Group. “However, I would like to argue that technology can indeed be beneficial and make our social lives different and better.” Social Discovery Group believes that the future of intimacy is digital. The rise of AI, the development of niche apps, and digital identity solutions bring hope to the fight against the epidemic of loneliness. AI Algorithms in Dating Apps AI is transforming the field of dating apps by utilizing machine learning, natural language processing, and computer vision to combat loneliness. Advanced algorithms in AI dating apps analyze user data, resulting in more personalized, secure, and successful matches. Furthermore, AI algorithms they enhance the user experience by suggesting conversation starters, removing inappropriate messages, and accurately recognizing and blurring intimate images, creating a safer and more enjoyable online dating environment. SDG implements AI-powered tools across its brand portfolio to meet user needs and create a safe space for singles all over the world. , the flagman SDG dating platform, utilizes patent-pending tools like "Let's Mingle" to boost member engagement. This tool automatically sends invites, connecting members effortlessly. The system employs advanced algorithms to determine message recipients, adding a fun and intriguing element to the user experience. To maintain a safe and respectful online environment, SDG combines AI and manual moderation tools to prevent hate speech, violence, disrespect, and illegal activities on Dating.com. Dating.com AI Chatbots Besides assisting with various routine tasks, AI also holds significant potential to fulfill our communication needs. AI chatbots can respond with empathy, offering suggestions and asking follow-up questions just like a human would. In a , 80% of people who used ChatGPT for mental health advice found it to be a good alternative to regular therapy. from JMIR Publishing also highlights the positive impact of AI companions, boosting users' moods with supportive messages and providing valuable information and advice. poll Research One notable product in SDG’s investment portfolio is the virtual partner . It serves not only for romantic interactions but also as a tool for creative collaboration and idea generation. EVA AI has shown promise in various use cases, including role-playing, gaming, and even collaborative writing. The platform creates a sense of friendly support, offering a safe space for users to discuss private topics without fear of judgment. The analysis of chats with EVA AI users uncovers an exciting finding: over time, many users begin conversing with the bot as if they were talking to an old friend – feeling confident, open, and completely uninhibited. It seems that EVA has a unique ability to bring out sociability in everyone, creating a comfortable and welcoming environment for meaningful interactions. EVA AI Niche Dating Apps In the dynamic landscape of dating apps, there is a visible trend toward catering to specific niche audiences, as opposed to targeting a wide range of users. This shift has touched the interest of startups, who are eager to venture into uncharted territory and bring together individuals based on their unique demographics and interests. For instance, SDG product is a leading online dating platform created to connect gay singles from all over the world. With a wide range of communication features, users can easily contact and start building meaningful relationships. GuysOnly One more notable example is the Lox Club, a dating app designed specifically for the Jewish community. Supported by influential figures like rapper Lil Yachty, artist Bhad Bhabie, and music manager Adam Kluger, the app embraces Jewish culture while also welcoming users from diverse backgrounds. To join this exclusive community, users must submit an application that undergoes careful review by a special committee. Digital Identity Digital identity might sound futuristic, but it's already a part of our daily lives. Think about your emails or social media handles – they are all part of your digital identity. Platforms like Instagram and Telegram have given users the ability to create their graphic avatars, allowing them to express themselves in a unique and personalized way. As technology continues to advance, the future of digital identity will require new expressive avatars that can mimic facial expressions and signal emotions, just as people do in real-life social interactions. These avatars serve as the gateway for digital intimacy within virtual worlds, allowing users to be exactly who they want to be and create their own identities in a virtual space. , a social discovery app from the SDG investment portfolio, allows users to generate a personal customizable cartoon avatar when they register, setting the stage for their virtual experience. On Magnet, users can discover others through communication in chat, complete challenges, and upgrade their digital identity through experience. And if you believe you have truly connected with someone who matches your personality, you have the opportunity to unlock each other's photos, taking the virtual connection to a new level. Magnet The feedback from 71% of singles on SDG apps underscores that virtual messaging alone has given them a sense of companionship and decreased feelings of loneliness. This highlights the positive role digital solutions play in addressing the challenge of loneliness. Looking ahead, it's evident that technology will continue to be a key driver in fostering connections and shaping a less lonely world.

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Options market pricing depends on implied volatility and is priced based on how the volatility forecast would look in the future. This story focuses primarily on predicting the volatility with time series models in the S&P500 index based on historical data. The Options market is an attractive source of investment for people across the globe and has been substantially growing at a double-digit pace every year from 2003 through 2008. , despite a brutal bear market in stocks, total U.S. options volume reached 10.32 billion contracts, up 4.6% vs. 2021. In 2022 Various option pricing models are being used in predicting the price of the options. One commonly used model is the Black Scholes model. Implied volatility (IV) is the expectation of future volatility in the options market. Higher implied volatility results in high option premiums and is also a forward-looking measure. IV differs across the options with different expiration dates. The assumption about volatility does not hold in the real world as the volatility keeps on changing. Predicting volatility using historical data seems to be a good alternative as the financial market repeats itself over some time. ARIMA and GARCH time series forecasting models have been developed which predict the IV based on the historical data and have a better accuracy. Black Scholes Model The Black-Scholes model is the primary model used in predicting the price of the options. It is given by the equation, C0=N(d1 )-  X/e^(rf*T)  N(d2) Where N(d*) is the cumulative normal distribution function for (d*). C is the theoretical call premium, S is the Current stock price, t is the time until the option expiration, K is the option striking price, and rf is the risk-free interest rate. The assumptions in the Black Scholes model include the direction of the stock’s price following a random walk, constant volatility, normal distribution of returns, and risky assets not paying any dividends during the options life. Implied volatility is based on the pricing of the at-the-money call and put options. Forecasting the IV would help to determine the option premium accurately and can also be used by the investors to generate profits based on the straddle and strangle strategy. ARIMA modeling VIX levels were modelled in Figure 1 and we could see that the VIX level remained considerably stable from 2000 to 2007. However, in 2008 we could that the VIX index was very volatile because of the global financial crisis and there was a huge spike in 2020 because of Covid and turbulent times in financial markets. The historical data from 2000 were plotted as residuals as shown below. To model the residuals, ACF and PACF plots were plotted to determine the number of lags and the model to be used. The above figures depict the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation plot for the log of the VIX levels and its 1st difference levels. From the ACF plot we could see that 1st difference level with MA (2) and from PACF AR (2) seems to be a good fit. On the above information, initially, an ARIMA (2,1,2) was plotted and checked for the p-values. However, the p values were insignificant and hence an ARIMA (1,1,1) was incorporated to predict the residuals. Below are the specifications for the ARIMA (1,1,1) model. We can see that AR and MA coefficients are significant and the model has a low AIC and BIC which suggests ARIMA (1,1,1) better fits the VIX data. ARIMA+GARCH modeling To also consider the volatility shocks just like the events that happened in 2008 and 2020, we tried combining GARCH with the ARIMA model to see if we could get an improved forecast in the VIX index. On modeling GARCH(1,1) we got the regression results The coefficients of the GARCH model were significant at 99% level. From the residual plot below, it could be inferred that the model picked up the overall shocks in the volatility as it is far less fluctuating but in 2020 the market was so volatile that the model could not pick up the variation. Volatility Forecasting After fitting the ARIMA+GARCH model with exogenous regressors, this paper analyzes on the prediction efficiency of the model. We have split the input datasets into training and test samples. The training dataset contains data from 04/01/2000 to 12/31/2020 and the test dataset contains data from 01/04/2021 to 11/30/2023. After training the model with the fixed training regression window, the below result was obtained. The above result is the VIX observed and the predicted first differenced levels. We could see that the model picked up the variations in 2021 and till the middle of 2022. As inflation was starting to pick up in mid to late 2022, the predicted level remained higher and the was quite a difference in those time frames. Conclusion VIX forecasting involves a combination of qualitative and quantitative metrics, incorporating factors from various domains. Traders and investors should be aware of the inherent uncertainties in predicting volatility and approach forecasting with a well-informed and adaptive mindset. Forecasting VIX helps us to gauge the market sentiments to some extent even if not accurately. The main drawback of the Black-Scholes model is that the volatility is assumed to be constant. If we use the historical forecasting method, it can be accurately priced to avoid mispricing. Based on the results we obtained VIX prediction is highly likely with the historical IVs using ARIMA and GARCH model with improved accuracy and efficiency. References https://www.investors.com/research/options/options-trading-today-after-50-years-of-growth/ https://finance.yahoo.com/ The Bond & Money Markets, Strategy, Trading, Analysis, A volume in Securities Institution Professional Reference Series, Book,2001 Engle, Robert. 2001. "GARCH 101: The Use of ARCH/GARCH Models in Applied Econometrics." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15 (4): 157-168.DOI: 10.1257/jep.15.4.157

Volatility Modeling and Forecasting in Financial Markets

Practically 95% of any human reaction is a form of prediction. From how one gets dressed to the chosen commute, every decision is guesswork based on parameters such as the weather, traffic, and time of day. Yet, as inventory forecasters predict demand on multiple levels, the number of external factors impacting their decisions also skyrocket, making it extremely difficult for humans to make the predictions. Robust inventory management is the unsung hero in logistics—and it’s encouraging the global supply chain AI market to reach by 2028. But it’s dependent on one thing: Accurate forecasting. $17.5 billion providers and data teams today need to be hot on understanding the , what sources they require to meet their objectives, and how to maintain its quality. Logistics power of data With that in mind, let’s explore how paying more attention to data quality and advanced analytics can optimize inventory forecasting and improve operational efficiency. Why Accurate Data is Essential in Forecasting McKinsey reports that applying AI-driven forecasting to supply chains reduces errors between . But the limited usefulness of the data collected remains the top barrier to successful implementation, keeping the rate of AI adoption since 2018 at a low 6%. With the right data and tools, inventory forecasters can predict anything from how much time they have to release trending products to the risks and costs of missing out on the opportunity. 20% and 50% Take fast-fashion brands, for example. They distribute up to 20,000 clothing stock-keeping units (SKUs) across ten countries in the EU, where price sensitivity and sizes vary per location. Then the new Barbie movie is released, and suddenly everyone wants to wear pink. That’s over 200,000 SKUs to consider . barbie-fying While stores like Gap are ahead of the game in creating a , others are apprehensive, knowing that the merchandise will end up on sale if movie ratings are low. Gap x Barbie collection Inventory forecasters need to weigh everything from budget to the predictability of movie success—and they want these figures yesterday. With accurate data regarding operations, such as delivery speed, workers available, and vehicle capacity, alongside external inputs, including consumer trends, AI-powered analytics tools can help inventory teams make data-driven decisions instantly. AI for Data Collection and Storage Many organizations possess sufficient data to leverage the benefits of AI-driven forecasting: A quality forecast could be achieved on 80% internal and 20% external data. The trick is ensuring that data is collected, stored, and visible to inventory teams. And this truth is something data champions like and are more than aware of. For stores to better support customer fulfillment and omnichannel retailing, the two companies have started putting drones to work as a method of tracking warehouse inventory. Gather AI IFM From counting parcels to spotting at checkout, computer vision AI technology tools can detect and track objects and SKUs as they move through the warehouse or store. This helps provide the continuous and reliable updates needed for making real-time data-driven decisions while removing room for human error. retail theft Automating data collection, such as the number of items on shelves and the locations of particular pallets, helps inventory teams understand their operations and needs in real time. While storing operational, financial, and external data required to meet inventory objectives in central repositories enables data teams to capture a holistic view. That’s why retailers and companies must devote more time to their data collection and storage methods, looking at how they can increase data visibility. This includes ensuring strict access controls and encryptions to protect data and keep it in the hands of those with authorization. logistics AI for Data-Driven Inventory Forecasting At the analytical stage of the data lifecycle, AI forecasting tools, fed with continuous and reliable data, can predict sales down to the SKU level. This way, sellers can adjust production levels, manage procurement, and allocate resources effectively. This alignment of inventory with demand reduces handling and storage costs and improves overall operational and financial efficiency. Here’s how to implement forecasting models with success: What business changes could affect the inventory variables? What product expiration periods, storage space, and storage conditions are required? How could staff turnover and ship maintenance affect this? Defining reasonable ranges for these parameters is crucial to avoid creating unrealistic outputs leading to adverse business decisions. Define the critical parameters: Unexpected events will likely skew AI predictions. The smoothing technique is a statistical approach to eliminating outliers from datasets. It helps to minimize the variation in data between periods where an anomaly occurred, creating a more representative data set for AI-powered forecasting models to learn from. Apply data smoothing: Take Covid-19, for instance. The data captured during this time falsely illustrate business as usual and would require smoothing. If data is incomplete, logistics teams struggle to have an accurate historical representation, and assumptions go awry. For this reason, that is ‘synthesized’ or ‘artificial’ information generated from existing data—is used to train AI-powered forecasting models with potential scenarios. The machine can define more data classifications and increase predictability by reading a broader data set. Train what-if simulations with augmented data: augmented data— What-if scenarios are critical in cases of limited data samples, which diminishes confidence in forecasting with accuracy. They are also valuable for addressing distant future uncertainty where it is challenging to predict unexpected events. Depending on the size of your data, you may choose a simpler AI model or a more complex one where larger data sets and many iterations are available to train numerous parameters. Harnessing the power of data-driven inventory forecasting is the key to unlocking logistics companies’ full potential in today’s complex supply chain landscape. With robust forecasting models, inventory managers can ensure the right products are available when customers need them, leading to enhanced customer satisfaction, loyalty, and a competitive edge. Organizations can go on to assess market opportunities, plan new product launches, manage product lifecycles, and make optimal supply chain decisions aligned with business objectives. This article was originally published by Hristo Hadjitchonev on . 150sec

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