The API You Built On Could Kill You in 2025—Time to Find the Exit

In 2024, AI startups basked in the glow of Big Tech’s generosity—APIs, funding, distribution, all handed over like party favors. Most AI wrapping wasn’t innovation; it was packaging. And it worked because APIs made it easy, investors made it glamorous, and nobody asked too many questions. But here’s the problem with wrapping paper: it doesn’t hide what’s underneath. When your product is just a glorified API call, you’re not scaling—you’re stalling. You’re renting your differentiation, training your biggest competitor, and tethering your business to a platform that will always prioritize its bottom line over yours. Dependency isn’t just a cost; it’s a countdown. And 2025 is when the clock hits zero. Big Tech APIs are a sugar high—cheap, quick, and utterly unsustainable. This year, the smartest AI startups will treat Big Tech like a loan shark: borrow what you need, get out fast, and never forget who’s really in control. Here’s how to plan your escape. Dependency’s Real Price Tag Isn’t Paid in Dollars Dependency isn’t just rising costs and vendor lock-in: it’s eroded leverage, stalled innovation, and stifling bottlenecks. The real danger isn’t what Big Tech takes from your wallet—it’s what they take from your future. The biggest threat to your startup isn’t competition, but the very infrastructure you’ve built it on. Let’s break down how dependency shapes not just your margins, but your long-term trajectory. Dependency Creates A Ceiling For Your Valuation APIs don’t amplify your valuation; they amputate it. They make your business a feature, not a platform, and the market only pays a premium for platforms. VCs were almost ready to forget. The API purges of 2015—when Facebook and LinkedIn abruptly severed access, obliterating analytics startups and dismantling ecosystems—had faded into industry lore. But 2023 tore the Band-Aid off. Elon killed off X’s free API, and Reddit’s $12,000-per-50-million-requests API pricing changes buried beloved apps like Apollo—reminders that “altruistic” APIs are more guillotine than growth engine. The Valley knows that startups built on someone else’s infrastructure are one executive decision away from obsolescence. In 2024, several AI startups felt the heat firsthand, facing down rounds when VCs balked at their dependency on OpenAI. You’re Their Unpaid R&D Department Dependency isn’t just a cost. It’s a giveaway. API usage data gives the giants an intimate understanding of your market, your customers, and your roadmap. And once they’ve learned enough, they don’t need you—just your niche. This isn’t paranoia; it’s precedent. Amazon turned marketplace vendors into unpaid consultants, using their sales data to launch Amazon Basics and crush the very businesses that thrived on its platform. And Facebook’s app ecosystem? A long audition for features Zuck could clone. Now AI startups are the latest players in this game—fueling models that will outpace and outprice them as soon as Big Tech decides their niche is ripe. Every dollar you spend on an API is funding the R&D of the company that will outcompete you tomorrow. And they always play for keeps. The Death Of Choice Is Your Doing Each API call feeds your product, and starves the ecosystem. By funneling resources, user behavior, and data into Big Tech’s ecosystem, startups accelerate the monopolization of their own markets, eliminating the very alternatives they’d turn to if things went south. Take Google Cloud’s AI services. Many AI startups lean on their pre-trained models for NLP or vision tasks because they’re fast and scalable. But this reliance accelerates Google’s market consolidation, crowding out smaller, specialized providers that can’t compete with its pricing power and distribution scale. Once those alternatives disappear, you’re locked into a single provider who treats you as an afterthought at best. Over-dependence doesn’t just risk independence—it guarantees no one else can offer it either. And you’re to blame. APIs Hijack Your Imagination APIs make some things easy and others impossibly hard. It’s human nature to gravitate towards what’s within reach because anything outside that scope is slower, riskier, and more expensive, often resulting in product strategies that mirror the API provider’s strengths rather than addressing underserved market needs. What feels like progress is likely just busywork aligned with someone else’s priorities. Cue OpenAI. Their API works wonders for creative tasks but makes offline compliance or obscure applications a nightmare. Instead of tackling these harder, high-value gaps, many startups default to polishing what’s readily available: better prompts, sleeker interfaces, minor tweaks. **The illusion of progress hides the reality that you’re building for the API, not the problem. **Dependency munches on your margins, and your ambition.**The more you rely on APIs, the more you become a glorified decorator instead of a disruptor. From Visionary To Maintenance Worker APIs are your infrastructure, and your instability. The more you rely on them, the more your product becomes a hostage to someone else’s shifting ambitions. Every update, feature deprecation, or pricing change forces startups into an endless cycle of refactoring and firefighting. Look at Meta’s computer vision APIs. When Zuck shifted focus to AR/VR in 2023, startups depending on those APIs were blindsided. Support dwindled, updates slowed, and features critical to their workflows were quietly deprioritized. Their product roadmaps weren’t just disrupted—they were derailed. And the products users were promised? Stuck in beta—forever. That fast track to growth? It’s a cul-de-sac of endless fixes. You Inherit Regulatory Baggage When privacy lawsuits, compliance mandates, or regulatory crackdowns hit Big Tech, the shockwaves don’t stop at their door. They ripple downstream, and guess who’s at the bottom of the food chain? You. **They’ve got lobbyists and engineers; you’ve got good intentions and a shrinking runway. Take GDPR as the cautionary tale. When Europe rolled out its landmark privacy regulations, startups relying on AWS were forced to scramble, overhauling architectures at crippling cost. Amazon was irritated for about half a second. AI-specific regulations will be no different. If OpenAI or Google Cloud pivot under new compliance demands, startups dependent on their APIs will bear the brunt—rebuilding systems, rewriting strategies, and repaying the bill for someone else’s mess. Borrowing Big Tech’s tools means borrowing their legal baggage. When the cracks appear, they call their lawyers—you call it a crisis. Dependency Is Poison To Potential Partners **First, the question of control—or lack thereof.**Partners know your business is effectively on loan. One pricing hike, feature removal, or policy shift from your API provider can turn your ops into a dumpster fire. Dependency also comes with a side of allegiance. Relying on another’s API is like slipping on their engagement ring: it’s commitment on full display. A fintech leaning on AWS? Good luck partnering with Microsoft Azure or independent cloud providers—they won’t risk being associated with “Amazon-aligned” competitors. Finally, partners want alignment, but dependency warps your priorities. Instead of tailoring your product to their needs, you’re boxed in by the limits of the API. Contrast this with a company like Databricks. While their models might not be as advanced, their independence makes them a far more attractive choice for high stakes industries wary of data breaches and vendor lock-in. That 62 billion valuation is pretty justified. Partners see your reliance on APIs as a liability for three reasons: lack of control, competitive conflict, and strategic misalignment. In short, they don’t see a collaborator—just a problem. Borrow, Build, Burn: The AI Founder’s Guide to API Autonomy Rejecting APIs altogether is the wrong hill to die on. But APIs are a bridge, not a home. Build to burn the bridge, not to live on it. Just remember to only light it on fire after you’ve banked the value, not before. Short-Term: Take Their Infrastructure, But Leave Their Strings The goal isn’t avoiding Big Tech—it’s exploiting their advantages while ensuring they can’t exploit yours. Negotiate API Pricing Like You’re Already A Top 1% Founder APIs might seem non-negotiable, but Big Tech loves betting on winners—and they know early discounts can lock you in for the long haul. Use this to your advantage. Lock in fixed-rate contracts when your usage is still small but your growth story is big. Negotiate across providers to create competitive pricing pressure, and cap reliance on any single API at 30%. A multi-cloud strategy—pairing OpenAI with Anthropic, or AWS with Google Cloud—gives you leverage to keep costs manageable and flexibility to pivot when the time comes. Borrow Credibility, Bank Data APIs are trust hacks. Users assume anything with Big Tech’s DNA is reliable, so ride that wave and use the association to jumpstart your MVP. But while customers are nodding along, use every API interaction to collect data giants don’t care about: edge cases, user quirks, and other contextual or behavioral insights. A health-tech platform could log how patients tweak AI-generated plans. A prop-tech platform might analyze regional trends APIs overlook, like zoning decisions or micro-seasonal preferences. Hoard every scrap of data that seems irrelevant now—it won’t be later. The API gets you in the door, but it’s this dataset that’ll keep you in the room. Double Down On The UX Layer From Day One UX is psychological glue. People don’t hate switching products—they hate disrupting routines. Your job is to make your product their habit, and that goes beyond pretty interfaces and quirky onboarding. E.g., a health-tech app where users can build dynamic meal plans tied to real-time grocery prices, saving them money on every shop. Or a B2B SaaS platform that rewards teams with shareable insights on how their work stacks up against industry benchmarks. Design to emphasize progress, personalization, and payoff. Bonus Tip: Launch Something (Slightly) Absurd to Test Independence Gauge your audience’s stickiness and your niche expertise by building an offbeat, self-reliant tool. E.g., a fintech startup could create a budgeting game for SMBs where users simulate cash flow crises and see how different decisions would affect survival. Practical, hyper-specific, and powered by proprietary logic. Keep it simple: it’s not about changing the world, just testing if you’re ready to navigate it solo. Medium-Term: Keep Your Enemies Close, Your Moat Closer Breaking free now is admirable, but premature independence is just bad business. Sign the divorce papers too early, and you’ll pay for it with inefficiency and slower scaling. Big Tech loves a good chore; let them have it. Your brain deserves to be plotting, not grinding. Lego Your Stack Develop a modular architecture where Big Tech APIs handle commodity functions (e.g., text classification), while your proprietary algorithms perform high-impact tasks (e.g., risk scoring, fraud detection). This layered approach lets you seamlessly replace APIs without product disruption if pricing spikes or terms dissolve. Data Fuels It, The API Powers It, Your Brand Owns It Remember the “useless” data you stored under your mattress? Use it. By creating features that layer your data over Big Tech’s outputs, you take something off-the-shelf and make it unforgettably yours. The backend might be generic, but the experience is pure originality. E.g., a travel app that uses a recommendation API as its foundation but overlays it with hyper-local insights like pop-up food festivals or off-the-radar family stays. Use your data to bury the API so deep users need X-ray vision to see it. It might do the grunt work, but your brand takes all the credit. Let people believe the magic is all yours—one day it will be. Fork and Knife: Replace What Matters, Cut What Doesn’t Don’t drive your team mad by forking the entire API. Forking is non-negotiable for core functions, but not every dependency deserves that treatment. For the critical elements, build in-house to own the outcomes; for the rest, challenge whether you need them at all. E.g, a fintech platform might start by forking an API used for fraud detection, training an in-house system on its own proprietary data to ensure accuracy. Meanwhile, for sentiment analysis, it could bypass the API entirely by collecting feedback directly from its users through a custom-built dashboard. Work smart, not just hard. Create a Hybrid Proprietary-Open Model Open-source tools powered by Big Tech’s APIs to create free features offering just enough utility to hook devs and users into your ecosystem. Meanwhile, your proprietary system holds the real value, locked behind a paywall. For instance, a fintech startup could open-source a budgeting library that uses Google Cloud’s API to sort transactions into spending categories. Developers adopt it to enhance their own tools, but for full functionality—like predictive savings recommendations, custom investment insights, and real-time financial coaching—they’ll need to reach for their wallets. Open source creates reach; your stack closes the deal. Scale faster, monetize sooner, and every penny you’ve spent on the API comes back with interest. Long-Term: Do What Big Tech Does, Just Smaller The secret to long-term survival isn’t rejecting Big Tech’s playbook—it’s repurposing it for the corners they’re too preoccupied to notice. Let them obsess over the next trillion-dollar market; you’ll take the scraps they’ve ignored and turn them into gold. By the time they want it back, it won’t be theirs to take. Sell Autonomy With Add-Ons The path to the top of the food chain lies in offering tools customers can own outright, making you indispensable to high-stakes industries or marquee clients. Microsoft pulled this one with their on-premises software back before cloud was a thing. Industries like healthcare, defense, and publishing won’t gamble with cloud-dependent solutions where security and exclusivity are at risk. Meanwhile, offering ownership helps you land the big dogs in your fields who demand excessive customization and privacy. Sell tools that customers control, but open the door for third-party developers to enhance their value. By embedding an open-source or extensible layer into your owned model, you foster an ecosystem of add-ons that transforms a static solution into an evolving ecosystem. For example, an AI startup selling offline diagnostic models to healthcare enterprises could release an open API for approved developers to create industry-specific integrations—like oncology-tailored reporting tools or pediatric-specific datasets. The owned model remains the backbone, but the third-party add-ons amplify its utility. Customers get autonomy with options, and devs get a sandbox that pays. You get loyalty, margins, and a seat at the table. RaaS: Regulation As A Service Big Tech doesn’t just survive regulations—they turn them into cash cows. Look at AWS: when GDPR dropped, Amazon offered GDPR-ready cloud solutions at a premium, saving businesses from costly overhauls while locking them into AWS’s ecosystem. Regulations became both their moat and moneymaker. So, get ahead of regulations before they’re inked, then sell the tools others will need to comply. Work with regulators, influence the rules, and bake compliance into your product. Make it modular so your competitors can use it too—for a price, of course. For example, a fintech AI startup sees regulators drafting explainability rules for algorithms. They help shape the policy, then release a plug-and-play compliance module for banks. Banks sidestep the regulatory headaches, startups rent the solution, and bureaucracy becomes a profit engine. Where Collaboration Happens, So Does Control The giants built their empires by enabling others. Back to Amazon: the launch of AWS Marketplace in 2012 granted third-party providers using the company’s infrastructure access to customers they’d never reach solo. Unicorns were minted, but the real winner was Amazon. Every sale didn’t just move tools; it moved the center of gravity toward AWS, locking developers and businesses into an ecosystem too valuable to leave. Don’t settle for being Amazon 2.0. Instead of hosting transactions, host collaboration with ownership. Build a hub where developers and businesses co-build tools, grounded in your proprietary system, and tie the incentives to shared ownership. Decentralization with guardrails. Royalties flow to contributors, brilliance flow to buyers, and power flows to you. Ultimately, the ecosystem thrives because everyone has a stake in its success. Be the unshakable foundation of what’s next, not just the middleman for what’s now. Final Thoughts: Be Tim Apple We love ringing in the new year with noise. Big promises, bigger visions, a splashy “this is our year” with excessive bravado. But in 2025, Big Tech’s moves have made one thing clear: the louder you are, the faster they’ll notice, and the quicker they’ll copy, crush, or co-opt. This year, Cook. Don’t Musk. Tim didn’t make Apple untouchable by chasing applause. Stockpile on “unsexy”: data Big Tech won’t scrape, partners they don’t even want, and contingencies that leaves them staring at an empty chair when they finally look up. This isn’t survival of the fittest; it’s survival of the fattest—fattened on assets Big Tech doesn’t care about until it’s too late. Lay low, layer deep, and when they finally notice, they’ll find nothing worth taking—just a market they can no longer win. In 2024, AI startups basked in the glow of Big Tech’s generosity—APIs, funding, distribution, all handed over like party favors. Most AI wrapping wasn’t innovation; it was packaging. And it worked because APIs made it easy, investors made it glamorous, and nobody asked too many questions. But here’s the problem with wrapping paper: it doesn’t hide what’s underneath. When your product is just a glorified API call, you’re not scaling—you’re stalling. You’re renting your differentiation, training your biggest competitor, and tethering your business to a platform that will always prioritize its bottom line over yours. But here’s the problem with wrapping paper: it doesn’t hide what’s underneath. When your product is just a glorified API call, you’re not scaling—you’re stalling. You’re renting your differentiation, training your biggest competitor, and tethering your business to a platform that will always prioritize its bottom line over yours. Dependency isn’t just a cost; it’s a countdown. And 2025 is when the clock hits zero. Dependency isn’t just a cost; it’s a countdown. And 2025 is when the clock hits zero. Big Tech APIs are a sugar high—cheap, quick, and utterly unsustainable. This year, the smartest AI startups will treat Big Tech like a loan shark: borrow what you need, get out fast, and never forget who’s really in control. Here’s how to plan your escape. Here’s how to plan your escape. Dependency’s Real Price Tag Isn’t Paid in Dollars Dependency’s Real Price Tag Isn’t Paid in Dollars Dependency isn’t just rising costs and vendor lock-in: it’s eroded leverage, stalled innovation, and stifling bottlenecks. The real danger isn’t what Big Tech takes from your wallet—it’s what they take from your future. The biggest threat to your startup isn’t competition, but the very infrastructure you’ve built it on. The real danger isn’t what Big Tech takes from your wallet—it’s what they take from your future . future Let’s break down how dependency shapes not just your margins, but your long-term trajectory. Let’s break down how dependency shapes not just your margins, but your long-term trajectory. Dependency Creates A Ceiling For Your Valuation Dependency Creates A Ceiling For Your Valuation APIs don’t amplify your valuation; they amputate it . They make your business a feature, not a platform, and the market only pays a premium for platforms. they amputate it they amputate it VCs were almost ready to forget. The API purges of 2015—when Facebook and LinkedIn abruptly severed access, obliterating analytics startups and dismantling ecosystems—had faded into industry lore. But 2023 tore the Band-Aid off. Elon killed off X’s free API, and Reddit’s $12,000-per-50-million-requests API pricing changes buried beloved apps like Apollo—reminders that “altruistic” APIs are more guillotine than growth engine. almost The Valley knows that startups built on someone else’s infrastructure are one executive decision away from obsolescence . In 2024, several AI startups felt the heat firsthand, facing down rounds when VCs balked at their dependency on OpenAI. one executive decision away from obsolescence one executive decision away from obsolescence You’re Their Unpaid R&D Department You’re Their Unpaid R&D Department Dependency isn’t just a cost. It’s a giveaway. API usage data gives the giants an intimate understanding of your market, your customers, and your roadmap. And once they’ve learned enough, they don’t need you—just your niche . And once they’ve learned enough, they don’t need you—just your niche And once they’ve learned enough, they don’t need you—just your niche This isn’t paranoia; it’s precedent. Amazon turned marketplace vendors into unpaid consultants, using their sales data to launch Amazon Basics and crush the very businesses that thrived on its platform. And Facebook’s app ecosystem? A long audition for features Zuck could clone. Now AI startups are the latest players in this game—fueling models that will outpace and outprice them as soon as Big Tech decides their niche is ripe. Every dollar you spend on an API is funding the R&D of the company that will outcompete you tomorrow. And they always play for keeps. The Death Of Choice Is Your Doing The Death Of Choice Is Your Doing Each API call feeds your product, and starves the ecosystem. By funneling resources, user behavior, and data into Big Tech’s ecosystem, startups accelerate the monopolization of their own markets , eliminating the very alternatives they’d turn to if things went south. startups accelerate the monopolization of their own markets startups accelerate the monopolization of their own markets Take Google Cloud’s AI services. Many AI startups lean on their pre-trained models for NLP or vision tasks because they’re fast and scalable. But this reliance accelerates Google’s market consolidation, crowding out smaller, specialized providers that can’t compete with its pricing power and distribution scale. Once those alternatives disappear, you’re locked into a single provider who treats you as an afterthought at best. Over-dependence doesn’t just risk independence— it guarantees no one else can offer it either . And you’re to blame. it guarantees no one else can offer it either APIs Hijack Your Imagination APIs Hijack Your Imagination APIs make some things easy and others impossibly hard. It’s human nature to gravitate towards what’s within reach because anything outside that scope is slower, riskier, and more expensive, often resulting in product strategies that mirror the API provider’s strengths rather than addressing underserved market needs . What feels like progress is likely just busywork aligned with someone else’s priorities. often resulting in product strategies that mirror the API provider’s strengths rather than addressing underserved market needs Cue OpenAI. Their API works wonders for creative tasks but makes offline compliance or obscure applications a nightmare. Instead of tackling these harder, high-value gaps, many startups default to polishing what’s readily available: better prompts, sleeker interfaces, minor tweaks. **The illusion of progress hides the reality that you’re building for the API, not the problem. **Dependency munches on your margins, and your ambition .**The more you rely on APIs, the more you become a glorified decorator instead of a disruptor. ambition From Visionary To Maintenance Worker From Visionary To Maintenance Worker APIs are your infrastructure, and your instability. The more you rely on them, the more your product becomes a hostage to someone else’s shifting ambitions. Every update, feature deprecation, or pricing change forces startups into an endless cycle of refactoring and firefighting. The more you rely on them, the more your product becomes a hostage to someone else’s shifting ambitions. Look at Meta’s computer vision APIs. When Zuck shifted focus to AR/VR in 2023, startups depending on those APIs were blindsided. Support dwindled, updates slowed, and features critical to their workflows were quietly deprioritized. Their product roadmaps weren’t just disrupted—they were derailed. And the products users were promised? Stuck in beta—forever. That fast track to growth? It’s a cul-de-sac of endless fixes. It’s a cul-de-sac of endless fixes. You Inherit Regulatory Baggage You Inherit Regulatory Baggage When privacy lawsuits, compliance mandates, or regulatory crackdowns hit Big Tech, the shockwaves don’t stop at their door. They ripple downstream, and guess who’s at the bottom of the food chain? You. ** They’ve got lobbyists and engineers; you’ve got good intentions and a shrinking runway. They’ve got lobbyists and engineers; you’ve got good intentions and a shrinking runway. Take GDPR as the cautionary tale. When Europe rolled out its landmark privacy regulations, startups relying on AWS were forced to scramble, overhauling architectures at crippling cost. Amazon was irritated for about half a second. AI-specific regulations will be no different. If OpenAI or Google Cloud pivot under new compliance demands, startups dependent on their APIs will bear the brunt—rebuilding systems, rewriting strategies, and repaying the bill for someone else’s mess. Take GDPR as the cautionary tale. Borrowing Big Tech’s tools means borrowing their legal baggage. When the cracks appear, they call their lawyers—you call it a crisis. Dependency Is Poison To Potential Partners Dependency Is Poison To Potential Partners **First, the question of control—or lack thereof.**Partners know your business is effectively on loan. One pricing hike, feature removal, or policy shift from your API provider can turn your ops into a dumpster fire. Dependency also comes with a side of allegiance. Relying on another’s API is like slipping on their engagement ring: it’s commitment on full display. A fintech leaning on AWS? Good luck partnering with Microsoft Azure or independent cloud providers—they won’t risk being associated with “Amazon-aligned” competitors. Dependency also comes with a side of allegiance. Finally, partners want alignment, but dependency warps your priorities. Instead of tailoring your product to their needs, you’re boxed in by the limits of the API. Contrast this with a company like Databricks. While their models might not be as advanced, their independence makes them a far more attractive choice for high stakes industries wary of data breaches and vendor lock-in. That 62 billion valuation is pretty justified. Finally, partners want alignment, but dependency warps your priorities. That 62 billion valuation is pretty justified. Partners see your reliance on APIs as a liability for three reasons: lack of control, competitive conflict, and strategic misalignment. In short, they don’t see a collaborator—just a problem. Borrow, Build, Burn: The AI Founder’s Guide to API Autonomy Borrow, Build, Burn: The AI Founder’s Guide to API Autonomy Rejecting APIs altogether is the wrong hill to die on. But APIs are a bridge, not a home. Build to burn the bridge, not to live on it. Just remember to only light it on fire after you’ve banked the value, not before. Just remember to only light it on fire after you’ve banked the value, not before. Short-Term: Take Their Infrastructure, But Leave Their Strings Short-Term: Take Their Infrastructure, But Leave Their Strings The goal isn’t avoiding Big Tech—it’s exploiting their advantages while ensuring they can’t exploit yours. The goal isn’t avoiding Big Tech—it’s exploiting their advantages while ensuring they can’t exploit yours. Negotiate API Pricing Like You’re Already A Top 1% Founder Negotiate API Pricing Like You’re Already A Top 1% Founder APIs might seem non-negotiable, but Big Tech loves betting on winners—and they know early discounts can lock you in for the long haul. Use this to your advantage. Lock in fixed-rate contracts when your usage is still small but your growth story is big . Negotiate across providers to create competitive pricing pressure, and cap reliance on any single API at 30% . A multi-cloud strategy—pairing OpenAI with Anthropic, or AWS with Google Cloud—gives you leverage to keep costs manageable and flexibility to pivot when the time comes. Lock in fixed-rate contracts when your usage is still small but your growth story is big cap reliance on any single API at 30% Borrow Credibility, Bank Data Borrow Credibility, Bank Data APIs are trust hacks. Users assume anything with Big Tech’s DNA is reliable, so ride that wave and use the association to jumpstart your MVP. But while customers are nodding along, use every API interaction to collect data giants don’t care about: edge cases, user quirks, and other contextual or behavioral insights. A health-tech platform could log how patients tweak AI-generated plans. A prop-tech platform might analyze regional trends APIs overlook, like zoning decisions or micro-seasonal preferences. Hoard every scrap of data that seems irrelevant now—it won’t be later . The API gets you in the door, but it’s this dataset that’ll keep you in the room. Hoard every scrap of data that seems irrelevant now—it won’t be later Hoard every scrap of data that seems irrelevant now—it won’t be later Double Down On The UX Layer From Day One Double Down On The UX Layer From Day One UX is psychological glue . People don’t hate switching products—they hate disrupting routines. Your job is to make your product their habit, and that goes beyond pretty interfaces and quirky onboarding. E.g., a health-tech app where users can build dynamic meal plans tied to real-time grocery prices, saving them money on every shop. Or a B2B SaaS platform that rewards teams with shareable insights on how their work stacks up against industry benchmarks. psychological glue Design to emphasize progress, personalization, and payoff. Bonus Tip: Launch Something (Slightly) Absurd to Test Independence Bonus Tip: Launch Something (Slightly) Absurd to Test Independence Gauge your audience’s stickiness and your niche expertise by building an offbeat, self-reliant tool. E.g., a fintech startup could create a budgeting game for SMBs where users simulate cash flow crises and see how different decisions would affect survival. Practical, hyper-specific, and powered by proprietary logic. Keep it simple: it’s not about changing the world, just testing if you’re ready to navigate it solo. Medium-Term: Keep Your Enemies Close, Your Moat Closer Medium-Term: Keep Your Enemies Close, Your Moat Closer Breaking free now is admirable, but premature independence is just bad business. Breaking free now is admirable, but premature independence is just bad business . premature independence is just bad business Sign the divorce papers too early, and you’ll pay for it with inefficiency and slower scaling. Big Tech loves a good chore; let them have it. Your brain deserves to be plotting, not grinding. Sign the divorce papers too early, and you’ll pay for it with inefficiency and slower scaling. Big Tech loves a good chore; let them have it. Your brain deserves to be plotting, not grinding. Lego Your Stack Lego Your Stack Develop a modular architecture where Big Tech APIs handle commodity functions (e.g., text classification), while your proprietary algorithms perform high-impact tasks (e.g., risk scoring, fraud detection). This layered approach lets you seamlessly replace APIs without product disruption if pricing spikes or terms dissolve. modular architecture commodity high-impact Data Fuels It, The API Powers It, Your Brand Owns It Data Fuels It, The API Powers It, Your Brand Owns It Remember the “useless” data you stored under your mattress? Use it. By creating features that layer your data over Big Tech’s outputs , you take something off-the-shelf and make it unforgettably yours. The backend might be generic, but the experience is pure originality. E.g., a travel app that uses a recommendation API as its foundation but overlays it with hyper-local insights like pop-up food festivals or off-the-radar family stays. Use it. layer your data over Big Tech’s outputs Use your data to bury the API so deep users need X-ray vision to see it. It might do the grunt work, but your brand takes all the credit. Let people believe the magic is all yours—one day it will be. Use your data to bury the API so deep users need X-ray vision to see it. Let people believe the magic is all yours—one day it will be. Fork and Knife: Replace What Matters, Cut What Doesn’t Fork and Knife: Replace What Matters, Cut What Doesn’t Don’t drive your team mad by forking the entire API. Forking is non-negotiable for core functions, but not every dependency deserves that treatment. For the critical elements, build in-house to own the outcomes; for the rest, challenge whether you need them at all . E.g, a fintech platform might start by forking an API used for fraud detection, training an in-house system on its own proprietary data to ensure accuracy. Meanwhile, for sentiment analysis, it could bypass the API entirely by collecting feedback directly from its users through a custom-built dashboard. For the critical elements, build in-house to own the outcomes; for the rest, challenge whether you need them at all challenge whether you need them at all bypass the API entirely bypass the API entirely Work smart, not just hard. Create a Hybrid Proprietary-Open Model Create a Hybrid Proprietary-Open Model Open-source tools powered by Big Tech’s APIs to create free features offering just enough utility to hook devs and users into your ecosystem. Meanwhile, your proprietary system holds the real value, locked behind a paywall. create free features offering just enough utility For instance, a fintech startup could open-source a budgeting library that uses Google Cloud’s API to sort transactions into spending categories. Developers adopt it to enhance their own tools, but for full functionality—like predictive savings recommendations, custom investment insights, and real-time financial coaching—they’ll need to reach for their wallets. Open source creates reach; your stack closes the deal. Scale faster, monetize sooner, and every penny you’ve spent on the API comes back with interest. Scale faster, monetize sooner, and every penny you’ve spent on the API comes back with interest. Long-Term: Do What Big Tech Does, Just Smaller Long-Term: Do What Big Tech Does, Just Smaller The secret to long-term survival isn’t rejecting Big Tech’s playbook—it’s repurposing it for the corners they’re too preoccupied to notice. The secret to long-term survival isn’t rejecting Big Tech’s playbook—it’s repurposing it for the corners they’re too preoccupied to notice. Let them obsess over the next trillion-dollar market; you’ll take the scraps they’ve ignored and turn them into gold. By the time they want it back, it won’t be theirs to take. Let them obsess over the next trillion-dollar market; you’ll take the scraps they’ve ignored and turn them into gold. By the time they want it back, it won’t be theirs to take. Sell Autonomy With Add-Ons Sell Autonomy With Add-Ons The path to the top of the food chain lies in offering tools customers can own outright, making you indispensable to high-stakes industries or marquee clients. Microsoft pulled this one with their on-premises software back before cloud was a thing. Industries like healthcare, defense, and publishing won’t gamble with cloud-dependent solutions where security and exclusivity are at risk. Meanwhile, offering ownership helps you land the big dogs in your fields who demand excessive customization and privacy. Sell tools that customers control, but open the door for third-party developers to enhance their value. By embedding an open-source or extensible layer into your owned model, you foster an ecosystem of add-ons that transforms a static solution into an evolving ecosystem. For example, an AI startup selling offline diagnostic models to healthcare enterprises could release an open API for approved developers to create industry-specific integrations—like oncology-tailored reporting tools or pediatric-specific datasets. The owned model remains the backbone, but the third-party add-ons amplify its utility. Sell tools that customers control, but open the door for third-party developers to enhance their value. Customers get autonomy with options, and devs get a sandbox that pays. You get loyalty, margins, and a seat at the table. RaaS: Regulation As A Service RaaS: Regulation As A Service Big Tech doesn’t just survive regulations—they turn them into cash cows. Look at AWS: when GDPR dropped, Amazon offered GDPR-ready cloud solutions at a premium, saving businesses from costly overhauls while locking them into AWS’s ecosystem. Regulations became both their moat and moneymaker. So, get ahead of regulations before they’re inked, then sell the tools others will need to comply . Work with regulators, influence the rules, and bake compliance into your product. Make it modular so your competitors can use it too—for a price, of course. then sell the tools others will need to comply then sell the tools others will need to comply For example, a fintech AI startup sees regulators drafting explainability rules for algorithms. They help shape the policy, then release a plug-and-play compliance module for banks. Banks sidestep the regulatory headaches, startups rent the solution, and bureaucracy becomes a profit engine. Where Collaboration Happens, So Does Control Where Collaboration Happens, So Does Control The giants built their empires by enabling others. Back to Amazon: the launch of AWS Marketplace in 2012 granted third-party providers using the company’s infrastructure access to customers they’d never reach solo. Unicorns were minted, but the real winner was Amazon. Every sale didn’t just move tools; it moved the center of gravity toward AWS , locking developers and businesses into an ecosystem too valuable to leave. The giants built their empires by enabling others . enabling others Every sale didn’t just move tools; it moved the center of gravity toward AWS Don’t settle for being Amazon 2.0. Instead of hosting transactions, host collaboration with ownership. Build a hub where developers and businesses co-build tools, grounded in your proprietary system, and tie the incentives to shared ownership. Decentralization with guardrails. Royalties flow to contributors, brilliance flow to buyers, and power flows to you. Ultimately, the ecosystem thrives because everyone has a stake in its success. collaboration with ownership. Royalties flow to contributors, brilliance flow to buyers, and power flows to you. Ultimately, the ecosystem thrives because everyone has a stake in its success. Be the unshakable foundation of what’s next, not just the middleman for what’s now. Final Thoughts: Be Tim Apple Final Thoughts: Be Tim Apple We love ringing in the new year with noise. Big promises, bigger visions, a splashy “this is our year” with excessive bravado. But in 2025, Big Tech’s moves have made one thing clear: the louder you are, the faster they’ll notice, and the quicker they’ll copy, crush, or co-opt. This year, Cook. Don’t Musk. This year, Cook. Don’t Musk. Tim didn’t make Apple untouchable by chasing applause. Stockpile on “unsexy”: data Big Tech won’t scrape, partners they don’t even want, and contingencies that leaves them staring at an empty chair when they finally look up. Stockpile on “unsexy” : data Big Tech won’t scrape, partners they don’t even want, and contingencies that leaves them staring at an empty chair when they finally look up. Stockpile on “unsexy” This isn’t survival of the fittest; it’s survival of the fattest—fattened on assets Big Tech doesn’t care about until it’s too late. This isn’t survival of the fittest; it’s survival of the fattest —fattened on assets Big Tech doesn’t care about until it’s too late. This isn’t survival of the fittest; it’s survival of the fattest Lay low, layer deep, and when they finally notice, they’ll find nothing worth taking—just a market they can no longer win. Lay low, layer deep, and when they finally notice, they’ll find nothing worth taking— just a market they can no longer win. just a market they can no longer win.