Too Long; Didn't Read
Every year, I decide to have a little fun and come up with a list of ten predictions (that often aren't very obvious or popular) in the following year.
I certainly don’t have a crystal ball, but as a lifelong investor, I believe some things have higher chances of happening than others.
How did I do with my 2021 predictions?
I made 10 predictions for 2021, and even though there is still some time left in the year, it’s safe to say that I correctly called nine out of ten.
Given the high hit rate in 2021, I expect the new projections to have a solid chance of happening. So without further ado, here are some for 2022.
S&P will breach 5,000
In February, I wrote an article titled, “You can make money in stocks with your eyes closed.” S&P Index was 3,800 at that time; it’s now over 23% higher. Why did I have such conviction?
I simply realized the S&P 500 returns had become a definition of inflation, and people store their wealth in the index.
Investors discovered that the Fed fully controls the stock market, not allowing any meaningful corrections to occur. As a result, the equities will go up as long as the central bankers print money. In other words, if the money supply increases 20% a year, so does the index. Under those circumstances, expecting a 10% gain from the current levels is rather conservative.