I made a revealing discovery when I compared the Internet life cycle with the crypto balloon
Cryptocurrencies are the reward of the massive innovation of Blockchain technology
Does this mean that the outrageous gains crypto is making is a 1-on-1 mirror of massive steps Blockchain tech is making?
My gist; speculation 80% / real innovation 20%. And here lies a big obscured issue.
The huge elephant in the crypto room is the size of Doge, Shiba-Inu, baby doge, and all other meme, shit-and animal coins.
I recently compared the tech lifecycle adoption curve of the Internet with Blockchain tech. I did a shocking discovery that I am going to reveal now.
It's not science. It's using common sense, zooming out, examining low timeframes, and looking at the time it took for the Internet to mature till the moment the early innovators became today's gatekeepers. Talking about you, Amazon and Facebook.
I discovered this truth that you don't want to see when you're bullish. But you might want to consider knowing about it since it's coming to get you.
A quick warm-up
Recap on our second latest revolution. The information coup.
The internet stems from the 70ies but got wider traction from 1983 when TCP/IP was applied. It took 17 years for a bubble the size of a trillion market cap to evolve. Until it burst in 2000.
.
A 1.7 trillion epic purge. That's close to the size of the complete Crypto market cap which sits currently at 2.6 trillion.
The big dot.com burst marked the end of the early adopter's phase and the beginning of the earl majority that saw potential in the future winners. Our current frightful 5 tech behemoths became bigger than nation-states. Making people like Jeff Bezos the most powerful and dangerous politician ever.
That's 19 years after the crash and 27 years after the invention of the revolution of information. See where I'm going?
Ready for a crash?
Twelve years after the start of the revolution of money, I'm predicting the so needed crypto bubble burst
I hear you say, that's not the 19 years the internet took. My answer; everything goes 1,5 faster these days.
Call me a crash saint, but hey, exponential curves are all over the place, so why not for Bitcoin and Blockchain tech?
I know, it sucks. Just when Bitcoin and friends are slaughtering all-time highs, you need to get ready to brace for impact.
Learn this one infinite wisdom that survived all rising empires that eventually fell; Pride comes before the fall.
A coin called Shiba Inu is the best materialization of our current crypto madness. This doggy Shitcoin went up 777% in 30 days.
Why?
It's called pump & dump and its price is based on air. Hot air.
The fact that something like Shiba Inu even exists is hard proof we're in a gigantic bubble. The funny thing is that when you're in the middle of this gigantic bubble, you don't notice. After a month of a steady increase of your coin, you start to believe it has amazing value for humanity, going to end hunger, solve climate change.
The reality is, you're in the death zone. Do you know? The middle of a tornado.
You're about to be hit by the fiercest bubble correction in 21 years that will strip you naked, slam you blind and land you in a financial wasteland with no customer service. When you survive at all.
Understand bitcoin and crypto by understanding the new technology adaptation curve
To understand the why and how; let’s have a look at the technology adoption lifecycle.
The technology trigger is Crypto's & Blockchain big bang moment.
It's the invention of Blockchain technology in 2009.
The true first hour 2,5% innovators are the Cypherpunks, the Libertarians, and an army of open source developers expressing their critique on the corrupted Fiat money system. Plus the visionary entrepreneurs that saw the potential, like the Winklevoss brothers and a bunch of other geeks that tried to copy the genius of the Bitcoin code.
As you can see in the cycle, the early adopters come in at the peak of inflated expectations. These are people like Elon Musk and Michael Saylor and other Wallstreet smart money following him.
This cycle happened with all newly invented technology that has the potential to reshape the world. In the Paris 1881 world exhibition, electricity was presented to the public. Hmmm. Won't work. Lets stick to our dangerous gas tubes and lighters.
Some people are writing for 12 years now that Bitcoin won't work.
We need a crash first.
Compare two tech bubbles to know where we are in the cycle
It's not enough to look at bitcoin’s price to even start to get a sense of where we are in the adoption cycle of the complete Blockchain space.
I did a shocking discovery when I compared the timelines of the revolution of information; The Internet, with our current revolution of money.
The revolution of information
1983 technology trigger with TCP/IP for the internet and 17 years of bubble growth
2000–2002 dot.com bubble burst 2002–2021 It took our current feudal tech overlords 19 years to grow their absolutist monopolies, eating everything on their path to a totalitarian vertical market Crypto & blockchain tech 2009: Invention of Blockchain tech and the creation of first Bitcoins by Nakamoto 12 years of bubble growth until now, an era where everybody speaks of a great reset 2021/2022 bubble burst???
The revolution of money is 5 years short compared to the internet bubble creation, but again, we're experiencing exponential growth over the board.
Didn't convince you?
Here comes something else I discovered.
Where are we in the cycle?
I discovered another very useful metric to discern where we are in the cycle.
The fact that we still have so many Bitcoin & Crypto criticasters versus the believers and maximalists.
What?
Yes. This signals something very important. The Bitcoin critics are coming down from the top of the slope of the inflated expectations. That's why they gave up on believing in the promise of Bitcoin and Blockchain tech to change the world for the good. Those are the people that rather stick to their gaslighters instead of the silent, clean and safe electricity.
That's where we are. Or at least, we're getting close to the bottom of the valley of disillusionment.
What if the bottom of disillusionment is the exact moment of the bubble burst?
A truly crypto rock bottom moment.
Makes perfect sense, since from there the only way is up. Another consequence is this bottom will be a big purge of all ballooned shit coins.
The future of humanity in this crucial timeframe we're in cannot be built on hot air. Side effect; This event will open the trust for the early majority to enter the space, as you can see in the cycle.
What happens after the crash?
Look at the doc.com bubble crash. The highly speculative period just before the burst attracts risk capital, gamblers, hardcore opportunists, inside traders, people with one week to live.
Everything that Robinhood attracted in 2020.
I mean, who sells their house to buy a Crypto called after a dog with non whatsoever intrinsic value? Millions will look back at this period in disbelief.
So what happens after the crash? No more doggy?
When the crypto balloon is deflated, the projects still standing have these things in common;
- They have enough product, or tech, ready
- They have solid teams with ego-less leaders
- They didn't spend all of their Ipo or Ico money on Lambo's, Hollywood Mansions, conferences in Dubai or on multi-level marketing
- They are highly decentralized
- They are eager to bring real innovation to this world, to solve pain points that have caused the current mess we're in
- They have values that make them succeed without getting trapped in ego-porn
Then the real work starts, the serious business. This is the period when sober investors come in. The early majority waited at the sideline and preferred Tesla stocks. They waited until the high volatility is less and real market leaders are appearing at the Crypto horizon.
It's the phase where the Crypto men separate from the boys playing with puppies.
A glorious decentralized future
One thing is sure. Because of the mindblowing promise of the innovation of Blockchain tech and its decentralized options, the Crypto future won't be the same as where we are now with the internet.
The promise of the internet was a free share of information, remember? So where did the freedom part go?
The biggest part of the Blockchain revolution is all about avoiding bigger-than-life middlemen sucking away all of your time, followers, energy, money, and content.
Decentralization is about disrupting the shit out of old grumpy gatekeepers that are after your freedom.
Truly decentralized Blockchain tech isn't created for future gatekeepers to do their full surveillance on us. To keep us from our followers. To bombard us with smart ads to keep our eyes on sight.
Disclaimer; Blockchain tech, in the wrong hands, can lead to a 1984 BORG alike dystopian totalitarian nightmare of utter control. The first signs are already here. Look at market leader China.
But that's not Nakamoto's prophecy written in the genesis block of Bitcoin.
I choose that vision. We have enough trouble already on planet earth. Are you joining?
Lucien Lecarme