Pane imwe nguva, hazvizivikanwe kuti zvingani zviziviso zviri kuda kudzvanywa pafoni yako. Paunomuka, uropi hwako hunoyedza kuyeuka zvawakatumira pawairara nezuro manheru. Wati chii kuti uwane nguva ino yekutarisisa nekubwinya? Gore rakapera, ndakasangana nenguva yakadai. Ini ndinoshandira , chikuva chemisika yekufungidzira, iyo ine mibvunzo yakadai sekuti "TikTok ichamanikidzwa kutengesa here?" kana kuti "GPT-5 ichaburitswa riini?". Vashandisi vanozobheja pamibvunzo iyi kuti vawane mari yekutamba uye vashande nzira yavo kukwira mabhodhi. Izvi zvinodhura musika uye zvinogadzira zvingangoitika nezveramangwana. Manifold Humwe husiku, ndichitsvaga Manifold kuti tigovane pamagariro edu, ndakagumburwa pamusika ndichifanotaura kuwanikwa kwemakamuri-tembiricha makuru. Yakapa 17% mukana wekuti chidzidzo chakabudiswa munguva pfupi yapfuura chichiti kugadzira iyo superconductor ingadzokororwe. Ndisati ndazvigovera, ndakatsvaga zvimwe zvinyorwa zvenhau uye matweets ane hukama ekuita nawo. Chakandishamisa ndechekuti hapana chandakawana. Takanga tarova nhau nyaya. Muvhiki inotevera, musika wedu wakagovaniswa zvakanyanya uye wakagamuchira mamirioni ekuona. Asi chimwe chinhu chinonakidza chaiitika: vashandisi vazhinji vaisaina uye vachidzoka mangwanani ega ega kuti vatarise kusawirirana, asi vazhinji vaive vasina kufarira mukutengesa. , "Kazhinji pazuva ndinotarisa musika wekufungidzira paLK-99. Yakawedzera zvakapetwa kaviri kubva payakaderera musi waChikunguru 29. Ichiri 24% chete, asi iri kukwira, kwete pasi.” Pa X, Paul Graham akanyora Izvi zvakaratidza maonero maviri akakosha. Chekutanga, isu takanga tanyanya kutarisa kuratidza huchokwadi hwemisika yekufungidzira apo vanhu vakakweverwa kwavari nekuda kwekutsanya, kwakaunganidzwa data ravakapa. Chechipiri, takaona kuti vashandisi vazhinji vaive vasingafarire kutengeserana uye vakabatikana sevaoni, vachingoda kuona maitiro emusika. Izvi zvaida shanduko yakakosha mukugadzirwa kwechigadzirwa chedu uye nzira dzekutengesa. Kubva paKuedza Kwedzidzo kuenda kuChigadzirwa cheVatengi Misika yekufembera yagara yakaganhurirwa kune zviedzo zvedzidzo uye niche application, kazhinji yakasudururwa parutivi sekufungidzira kana kusaita. Nekudaro, rwendo rwedu neManifold rwakaratidza mukana usina kuwanikwa munzvimbo ino kana uchikwanisa kuroverera chigadzirwa-musika wakakodzera. Mumakore mashoma apfuura, akati wandei akatanga kutora nzira dzakasiyana dzekuita kuti misika yekufungidzira iwanikwe, yakakosha, uye yakajairika. ndiyo inotungamira crypto chikuva uye inopa misika yemari chaiyo pamisoro iyo mamwe mapuratifomu, kunyanya ayo ari kuUS, asingagone kubata-senge sarudzo dzezvematongerwo enyika. Iri zano rakakwezva kubva kumazita makuru saPeter Thiel naVitalik Buterin, . Nekupisa kwesarudzo, huwandu hwekutengesa kwavo hwakawedzera kusvika . Kunyangwe VaTrump vakaratidza kufarira uye vaigara vachigovana kusawirirana kwavo munharaunda yake, pamwe nekuti kusawirirana kwePolymarket kwaimufarira kupfuura sarudzo. Polymarket mari ichangoburwa yemadhora 70 miriyoni naNate Silver achitouya sechipangamazano pamadhora zana emamiriyoni pamwedzi Kune rimwe divi, iri kutamba mutambo wakareba nekutarisisa kuteedzera kwemitemo uye kukwezva masangano. Kusiyana nePolymarket, Kalshi inobvumira vatengi veUS uye yakafamba nenzira yakaoma yekuwana mvumo kubva kuCommodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) yekushandisa misika yepamutemo yekubheja pane chaiyo yehupfumi zviratidzo uye zviitiko. Iyi nzira inopindirana nechinangwa chavo chekuve nzvimbo yekuenda-kupuratifomu yemasangano emari echinyakare. Asi Kalshi haasi kugumira ipapo-vari kutsvagira vanhu mhosva uye kuti iwedzere kupa kwavo kuti ibatanidze misika ine mukurumbira, sesarudzo. semugadziri wemusika kupa mari idanho rakakura rekuita kuti Kalshi ive yakavimbika, inoteerana chikuva chevatengesi vakakura uye vanoisa mari. Kalshi kutomhan'arira CFTC Kudyidzana kwavo kwazvino neSIG Zvichakadaro, Manifold ari kutora imwe nzira nekutarisa kuwanikwa uye kuita mushandisi. Nekusarudza yekutamba-mari modhi, Manifold anobvisa kutemwa kwemusoro kunouya nemapuratifomu emari chaiwo. Isu ndisu chete saiti iyo vashandisi vanogona kugadzira yavo misika inotibvumira kuyera huwandu hwemibvunzo iri kubvunzwa tichienzanisa nemamwe mapuratifomu. Iyi modhi-yakagadzirwa nemushandisi modhi inovimbisa kuti Manifold anogara achikurumidza kupindura kune dziri kubuda nhau uye mibvunzo inouya nazvo. Nepo misika yedu parizvino ichishanda pamari yekutamba, tiri kuronga kuunza inotendera vashandisi kuhwina mari chaiyo pane mamwe misika. Nekuda kweiyo gamification uye mukurumbira uri panjodzi, vashandisi vachiri kukurudzirwa kutengesa nemazvo vachibvumira misika yedu kuti ive yakanaka sevanokwikwidza. sweepstakes modhi Sezvo aya mapuratifomu matatu — Polymarket, Kalshi, uye Manifold — anoratidza, nzira inoenda kune chigadzirwa-musika wakakodzera mumisika yekufungidzira haisi imwe saizi-inokodzera-ese rwendo. Izvo zvakati, ese matatu mapuratifomu akafanirwa kukunda mamwe matambudziko akagovaniswa anouya nemisika yekufungidzira. Kuona zvinonetsa nekutengeseka kwechigadzirwa chako Chigadzirwa chitsva chega chega chinotarisana nedambudziko rekukunda kusahadzika kwekutanga, kunyanya kana chiri chinhu chisingazivikanwe. Semuenzaniso, vanhu vazhinji havana chinongedzo nemashoko ekuti "prediction market" kana "forecasting platform". Izvi zvinopa mukana usingawanikwi wekugadzira fungidziro yavo yekutanga asi inouya nenjodzi yekuti vachiienzanisa nepuratifomu yekubhejera ine chirevo chisina kunaka. Izvi zvinoita kuti misika yekufungidzira inonetsa kugovera. Manifold vashandisi vakaedza kugovera zvinongedzo vasina kuzvigadzira nemazvo vakamiswa nemavhoti pasi paReddit. Asi iyi haisi mhosva yevanogovana, asi kuti chigadzirwa pachacho uye nezvachinotaura nezvacho pachacho kana chichionekwa pekutanga. Pane intuition vanhu vane iyo pfungwa kana chigadzirwa chinogona chete kukura sekunge vanhu vari kuda kuchigovera. Ndingapikisa kuti iyi haisi iyo bhodhoro. Unofanira kutarisa rimwe danho mberi. Kukura kwechigadzirwa kunogumira nekuti zviri nyore sei kugovera. Iwe unogona kuve nekapoka-sekuteedzera kwakabatikana nepfungwa uye kubhomba chero munhu anoshinga kuteerera. Asi, kana yakanyanya kuomarara uye isingagone kuratidzwa nenzira inowirirana, haisi kuzokura. Uye kunyangwe iwe uchigona kuburitsa mufananidzo chaiwo wekuti musika wekufanotaura chii, zvingasave pachena kune mumwe munhu kukosha kwainopa kwavari. Neraki, misika yekufungidzira yave pachinzvimbo chekuti vanhu vanovimbika vakakwana uye nhepfenyuro dzenhau vanovanzwisisa uye vari kuda kukwidziridza mukurumbira wavo kuti vagovane. Kuvapa senzira "yekutevera kusawirirana pane chimwe chinhu chauri kufarira" pane "kutamba mutambo uyu / kuita mari kubheja nezvechimwe chinhu chauri kufarira" kwakabatsira zvakanyanya zvakare. Kuderedza kutarisisa kwako paChigadzirwa-musika-chakakodzera Sezvo isu takagadzira chigadzirwa chedu, takazviwana pachedu tichigara tichidhonzwa munzira dzakasiyana, kazhinji tichipira makiyi ekushandisa. Pakutanga, isu takanyanya kugadziridza kune vatengesi, tichitenda kuti chigadzirwa-musika chakakodzera (PMF) chaienderana nekudzidzisa vanhu vazhinji sezvingabvira nzira yekutengesa uye kuita kuti inakidze kwavari. Nekudaro, iyi nzira shoma yakafuratira chikamu chakakosha chevashandisi vainyanya kufarira ruzivo rwekufanotaura misika yakapihwa pane kutengeserana pachayo. Runyerekupe rwesuperconductor uye kutenderera kwesarudzo kwakapa mienzaniso yakasimba yeizvi. Vazhinji vashandisi vaive nehanya nezve zvingangoitika asi vaive nekufarira kushoma mukutengesa. Zvakare, vaisada kuti misika ive yakarurama; ivo vaingoda kukurumidza kuona kuti zviitiko, seBiden zvingangodonha, zvingakanganisa sei mujaho. Iko kumhanya uye kuve nyore kwemisika yekufungidzira yakazadza gap iri zvirinani kudarika sarudzo dzinononoka. Nekuita shanduko yekutarisisa kukurumidza uye kuverenga kwedu, zvinova zvakaoma kune vanokahadzika vangangove vashandisi kutidzinga. Kare, vaigona kusarudza kutenda kuti isu takanga tisina humbowo hwakakwana hwehuchokwadi uye nokudaro takanga tisina kukodzera nguva yemunhu chero upi zvake. Kana kuti chikonzero chega chekudyidzana nemisika yekufungidzira dai wanga uri munhu anobhejera, izvo zvine musoro sezvo kushambadzira kwedu uye kopi zvaingonangana nekusundidzira vanhu kuti vaite kutengeserana. Nekudaro, zvakanyanya kuoma kuramba kuti misika yekufungidzira inogadzira iyo inokurumidza, yakaunganidzwa data iri nyore kuverenga. ichiri kuratidza kuti misika yekufungidzira ndeyechokwadi uye isu tichine hanya nevatengesi vedu. Asi, nekutarisa kukosha kwatinopa mune dzimwe nzvimbo, isu hatisi kuvimba zvakanyanya mukuhwina kwechokwadi nharo kana kuedza kushandura munhu wese kuti anakirwe nekutengesa. Manifold's data Chii chinotevera misika yekufungidzira? Tiri kupinda nguva dzinonakidza dzemisika yekufungidzira. Kutenderera kwesarudzo uku kuchave bvunzo yavo yekutanga ine vhoriyamu yakakosha uye kutarisisa kwakawanda kuti vaone maitiro avanoita zvichienzaniswa nedzimwe nzira dzekare dzekufungidzira. Kunyanya kunakidza kuchange kuri kuona kuti mangani enhau dzenhau uye vanhu vanotanga kusanganisira misika yekufungidzira senzvimbo yedata kana vachigadzira maonero avo. Isu tiri zvakare kuenderera mberi nekuwana mamwe mabhenefiti ekufanotaura misika ane anoenderana nezvine hanya nevashandisi. Semuyenzaniso, mawebhusaiti enhau anokwenenzvera kuti ataure nhau dziri kubuda nekukasika. Biden paakasiya senge NYT yakaita kuzivisa vashandisi vedu. Manifold akatumira email maminetsi makumi maviri pamberi penhau Pakupedzisira, mibvunzo inoramba iri pamusoro pekufanotaura kwemisika yekugara kwenguva refu muUS, kunyanya sezvo CFTC inoenderera mberi nehondo yepamutemo neKalshi. Maitirwo achaita izvi anogona kuve nezvakakosha kune ramangwana reindasitiri.
