Izdvojio sam jedan termin: . Mutually Assured Refining Capacity (MARC)™ Za razliku od uzajamno osigurane destrukcije (MAD), koja se oslanja na nuklearno odvraćanje, MARCTM povezuje zemlje kroz njihovu ovisnost o rijetkim rafinerijama nafte. Možemo to nazvati radnom tezom, idejom ili idejom u razvoju - stražarskim prugama energetskih tokova, primarnim načinom na koji ja ocjenjujem geopolitiku i njene granice s vremena na vrijeme. The world has ~825 refineries processing ~100 million barrels per day (bpd) globally, disrupting this supply chain risks economic collapse for all. MARC™©is a term I’ve coined to highlight this overlooked force for global peace. Refineries Are Critical and Complex Tipičan procesni diagram sirove rafinerije. Lanci snabdevanja rafinerije su kompleksna mreža globalnih nabavki, koja zahtijeva 5-10 milijardi dolara, 50.000 tona čelika, 10.000 radnika (s nedostatkom 20% kvalificiranog rada), 1.000 tona katalizatora i 10.000 rezervnih dijelova po postrojenju, s više od 10.000 tačaka neispravnosti koje mogu zaustaviti operacije i povećati cijene goriva za 10-20%. TL;DR Rafinerije pretvaraju sirovu naftu u esencijalna goriva kao što su benzin, dizel i jet gorivo, što pokreće moderne ekonomije. S samo 825 postrojenja širom svijeta, njihov nedostatak stvara globalnu bočicu. Svaki poremećaj – rat, sankcije ili prirodne katastrofe – povećava cijene goriva i destabilizuje trgovinu. MARC™: A New Geopolitical Force MARC™ enforces peace through economic interdependence, not fear. Nations rely on each other’s refineries to meet fuel demands. All-out war would cripple these supply chains, making skirmishes the safer option. Global Refinery Landscape The world’s 825 refineries are unevenly distributed, with Asia leading at 320 facilities (36.5 million bpd). North America has 150 refineries (22 million bpd), while Europe and the Middle East have 120 and 73, respectively. No region is self-sufficient, forcing trade reliance. Table 1: Global Refinery Landscape (2024) America’s Refining Role The U.S., with 129 refineries (18.4 million bpd), is a refining powerhouse. Yet, it imports 1.5 million bpd of heavy crude from Canada and Mexico for Gulf Coast plants. Sukob koji bi poremetio te tokove mogao bi podići američke cijene plina za ~20% ($ 0,75 / galon). The Complexity of Refinery Supply Chains Iz perspektive hemijskog inženjerstva, lanci opskrbe rafinerije su kombinatorijsko čudo, integrirajući hiljade specijaliziranih komponenti, precizne hemijske procese i globalnu logistiku za izgradnju, rad i održavanje ovih kritičnih objekata. Construction and Capital Intensity Izgradnja rafinerije je ogroman poduhvat, koji zahtijeva godine planiranja, milijarde investicija i visoko specijalizovanu radnu snagu. Proces uključuje nabavku materijala iz desetak zemalja i kvalificiranih radnika kao što su zavarivači i hemijski inženjeri, koji su sve manji. : Metrics Cost: $5-10 billion per refinery. Steel requirement: ~50,000 tons of high-grade steel (e.g., from Japan, South Korea) for distillation towers, reactors. Labor force: ~10,000 workers during construction, including 2,000-3,000 specialized welders and 500 chemical engineers; global shortage of ~20% for such skilled labor (e.g., U.S. welder deficit: 50,000 by 2026). Construction timeline: 5-7 years, extended by 6-12 months due to labor scarcity. Specialized Components and Catalysts Operacije rafinerije zavise od napredne opreme i katalizatora, od kojih svaki ima svoj vlastiti globalni lanac snabdevanja. Fluid Catalytic Crackers (FCC) i hydrocrackers zahtijevaju precizne materijale za rukovanje visokim temperaturama i pritiskom. : Metrics Catalysts: ~1,000 tons of zeolite-based catalysts for FCC units, sourced from Germany, China; replaced every 2-3 years at $10-20 million per cycle. Hydrocracker vessels: High-pressure (up to 3,000 psi), made with nickel-chromium alloys from Russia, South Africa; lead time of 12-18 months. Coking units: Proprietary delayed coking technology (e.g., Foster Wheeler, U.S.), installation takes 2-3 years. Crude Supply and Blending Refineries blend crudes to optimize yields, requiring precise chemical specifications. A mismatch in crude quality can slash output, disrupting global fuel markets. Većina rafinerija se oslanja na uvezenu sirovu naftu, povezujući ih s nestabilnom geopolitičkom situacijom. : Metrics Global crude trade: 80 million bpd, sourced from 20+ countries. Blending example: 70% light Brent (API 38°), 30% heavy Venezuelan (API 16°) for optimal yields. Specification requirements: API gravity 30-40°, sulfur content <2%; mismatch reduces output by 10-15%. Logističke i logističke ranjivosti Maintenance involves thousands of spare parts, each with its own supply chain. A single delay can idle a refinery, costing millions daily. This fragility ensures nations avoid disrupting the system. : Metrics Spare parts: ~10,000 per refinery, including European control valves, Chinese pump seals, sourced from 30+ countries. Downtime cost: $5-10 million daily for a $1 billion facility. Failure points: Over 10,000 per refinery, from catalyst shortages to equipment failures. Why Strategic Reserves and Zombie Movies Mislead : SPR-ovi (npr. 600M američkih barela, 5-mjesečna opskrba) ne mogu zamijeniti rafinerije, jer sirovina treba preradu, a goriva brzo degradiraju (benzin gubi 20% oktana u 6-12 meseci), razbijajući zombi filmske mitove dugotrajnih pohranjivanja goriva. izvinjenje: Izvinjavam se zbog detaljnog raspada SPR-ova i mitova goriva; ključno je pokazati zašto je MARCTM-ova refinerska mreža pravi leđa energetske sigurnosti! TL;DR Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs) are often misunderstood as a robust shield against refinery disruptions, but their limitations and the rapid degradation of stored fuels reveal why they can’t replace MARC™’s interdependent refining network. Zombie movies further mislead by depicting fuels lasting decades, ignoring chemical realities. This fragility reinforces the need for global cooperation to maintain refining capacity. Svrha i razmjera SPR-a SPRs are designed to cushion short-term oil supply shocks, but their capacity is finite. The U.S. SPR, the world’s largest, holds mostly crude oil, not refined fuels. This limits its effectiveness in prolonged disruptions. : Metrics U.S. SPR capacity: ~600 million barrels of crude, equivalent to 60 days of U.S. crude imports (10 million bpd). Maximum drawdown rate: 3.5 million bpd, constrained by pipeline and port infrastructure. Refining Bottleneck SPR-ovi skladište nerafiniranu sirovu sirovinu, koja je beskorisna bez operativnih rafinerija. Kapacitet rafiniranja, a ne dostupnost sirove sirove sirovine, kritično je ograničenje u krizi. SPR-ovi ne mogu riješiti poremećaje specifične za rafinerije. : Metrics U.S. refining capacity: 18.4 million bpd; a 10% disruption (1.8 million bpd) would exhaust SPR crude in ~5 months at max drawdown. Refinery restart: 3-6 months and $100-200 million in recommissioning costs for an idled facility. Fuel Degradation and Storage Myths Rafinirana goriva brzo degradiraju, razbijajući zombi film trope dugotrajnih gasnih keša. Benzin i dizel zahtijevaju stalno održavanje kako bi ostali korisni. : Metrics Gasoline degradation: Loses 20% octane rating within 6-12 months due to oxidation. Diesel/jet fuel shelf life: 1-2 years with stabilizers; storage maintenance costs $50-100 million annually. Sistemske zavisnosti SPRs can’t replace the complex supply chains for catalysts, spare parts, or skilled labor needed to keep refineries running. Fuel distribution also relies on electricity, which fails without refineries powering plants. This underscores MARC™’s critical role. : Metrics Supply chain recovery: 1-2 years to rebuild catalyst or spare part supply chains post-disruption. Electricity dependency: Fuel pumps require ~1-2 MW per large station, reliant on refinery-powered grids. Zašto mnogi "ratovi" ostaju skirmishes MARC™ makes all-out war economically disastrous. Refinery disruptions ripple globally, harming allies and enemies alike. Below are five examples showing how I believe MARC™ caps conflicts at skirmishes. Example 1: Israel-Iran-China Triangle Treći najveći trgovinski partner Izraela je Kina, sa 15 milijardi dolara godišnjeg uvoza (12% ukupnog uvoza). Ako bi Izrael ciljao na iranske rafinerije od 1,8 miliona bpd, kineski centar Shandong (4,2 miliona bpd) bi stagnirao, povećavajući globalne cijene dizela i oštećujući izraelsku trgovinu. Kineske rafinerije se oslanjaju na iransku sirovu naftu koja je otporna na sankcije. Figure 1: China’s Crude Imports (2023) Primjer 2: Saudijska Arabija-Jemen-Huti sukob In 2019, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq refinery (5.5 million bpd) cut output by 50%, causing a 15% global oil price spike. Saudi Arabia, exporting 30% of its refined products to Asia, restrained escalation to protect $100 billion in trade. Asia’s diesel demand ensures conflicts stay limited. Example 3: Russia-Ukraine-Europe Russia’s 6.7 million bpd refining capacity supplies 40% of Europe’s diesel imports. Ukraine avoids targeting Russian refineries (e.g., Tuapse, 240K bpd) to prevent fuel shortages in EU allies. Such disruptions could raise European diesel prices by 10-20%. Example 4: India-Pakistan Tensions India’s 5 million bpd refineries supply 20% of South Asia’s fuel. Pakistan’s 450K bpd capacity can’t meet domestic demand. A war would cut India’s exports, risking a 25% regional fuel price hike, so tensions remain at border clashes. Example 5: Venezuela-U.S. Dynamics U.S. Gulf refineries process 500K bpd of Venezuelan crude. Sanctions haven’t escalated to military conflict—disrupting this flow would raise U.S. diesel prices by 10-15%. MARC™ discourages direct confrontation. Understanding Refinery Complexity Rafiniranje varira ovisno o vrsti sirove – laka/slatka (npr. WTI) zahtijeva jednostavne rafinerije, dok teška/kisela (npr. bitumen) zahtijeva složene jedinice za kokiranje. Tablica 2: Vrste rafinerija i ranjivosti Američke rafinirane ranjivosti U.S. refineries, averaging 40+ years old, face risks from hurricanes, tariffs, and EV growth. A 2 million bpd capacity loss by 2030 (10% of total) could force 25% more fuel imports. A Gulf outage (e.g., Saudi’s Ras Tanura, 435K bpd) would spike jet fuel prices by 15-20%. Future Risks Amplify MARC™ By 2030, 20% of global refining capacity (20 million bpd) could be at risk from closures. Europe and China face the highest exposure, tightening supply chains. MARC™’s peace-forcing effect will grow stronger. Figure 2: Refinery Capacity at Risk (2030) Global Interdependence Evropa uvozi 30% svog dizela iz Azije. Saudijska Arabija goriva avione u više od 50 zemalja. Jedan napad na rafinerije mogao bi zaustaviti globalnu avijaciju, čineći ratni ekonomski samoubojstvo. MARCTM kao nova stvarnost MARC™ ensures nations prioritize trade over destruction. Refineries are the world's great vulnerability and have the capacity to constrain potential wars to skirmishes or peace.
