Here's Why Talent Isn't Rare. This Is.

Why I Only Bet On Those Who Bet On Themselves

This exact week, three years ago, I sat in two very different meetings with two very different founders.

The first founder spent our entire lunch explaining why his startup wasn’t growing: The market timing wasn’t right. His investors weren’t giving him enough runway. His team wasn’t executing his vision properly. The economy was against him. By dessert, I had heard every possible reason why success was just out of reach — none of which had anything to do with him.

Three hours later, I met the second founder in her cramped office. Her startup was facing similar headwinds, but her response was radically different: “I underestimated the sales cycle length. My initial go-to-market strategy was wrong. I’m working on three specific changes to fix this.” No excuses, no blame-shifting — just ruthless ownership and clear-eyed assessment.

Guess which founder I’m betting on?

Here’s the thing about people who bet on themselves:

• They don’t need the world to be perfect.
• They don’t require ideal conditions.
• They look at obstacles and see opportunities for growth.
• When things go wrong (and things always go wrong), they don’t waste energy on blame — they focus on solutions.

I’ve spent the last decade investing in and working with entrepreneurs, and I’ve noticed a pattern so consistent it’s practically a law of nature: Success follows those who take ownership. Not sometimes. Not usually. Always.

Think about the most successful person you know personally. Not Elon Musk or Steve Jobs — someone you’ve actually observed up close. I bet they share this trait: When things go wrong, they look in the mirror first.

The world is filled with talented people. It’s bursting with great ideas. But talent and ideas are commodities. The truly rare element — the one thing I’ve learned to bet everything on — is the capacity for radical ownership.

Because here’s what I know for sure: In the long run, the person who owns their failures will outperform the genius who outsources blame.

Every. Single. Time.

Want proof?

Let me show you what radical ownership really looks like, and why it’s the only reliable predictor of success I’ve ever found…

The Ownership Divide: What Really Separates Winners from Almost-Weres

Let’s get specific about what betting on yourself actually means because it’s not what most people think.

It’s not about confidence. I’ve met plenty of confident people who crumble at the first sign of failure.

It’s not about optimism — some of the best self-believers I know are pragmatic pessimists.

And it’s definitely not about taking credit when things go right.

Betting on yourself is about one thing: Taking radical ownership when things go wrong.

The Tale of Two VPs

Last year, I watched two VPs handle the same crisis: A major product launch that flopped spectacularly.

VP #1 had a ready arsenal of explanations:

• “Marketing didn’t position it correctly”
• “Engineering missed key features”
• “The market wasn’t ready for innovation”
• “Competitors played dirty”

Every explanation was plausible. Some were probably true. None were useful.

VP #2 took a different approach: “I missed important customer signals. I rushed the launch because I was too focused on hitting a date rather than hitting the mark. Here’s my plan to fix it.”

Same situation. Same level of talent. Radically different ownership levels.

Guess which VP turned things around within six months? Guess which one is now a successful CEO?

The Ownership Test

Want to spot someone who truly bets on themselves? Listen to how they tell their story. The ownership divide shows up in language:

Non-Owners say:

• “They didn’t give me enough resources”
• “No one told me about the deadline”
• “The client was impossible to work with”
• “The market conditions weren’t right”

Owners say:

• “I didn’t secure enough resources”
• “I failed to clarify the deadline”
• “I couldn’t find a way to make the client successful”
• “I misread the market conditions”

Notice the pattern? It’s not about taking blame for everything that goes wrong. It’s about taking ownership of your response to what goes wrong.

The Price of Ownership (And Why Most Won’t Pay It)

Here’s why true ownership is rare: It’s painful.

It requires you to embrace uncomfortable truths. To look at your failures without flinching. To acknowledge your role in every setback.

Most people won’t pay this price. They choose the comfort of excuses over the pain of ownership. And I get it — ownership hurts. But here’s what they miss:

The pain of ownership is temporary. The cost of avoiding it is permanent.

Every time you choose comfort over ownership, you:

• Miss crucial learning opportunities
• Weaken your ability to influence outcomes
• Train yourself to be helpless
• Signal to others that you can’t be counted on

But when you embrace ownership:

• Each failure makes you stronger
• Your influence grows
• You develop antifragility
• You attract others who take ownership

This is why I bet on owners: Not because they fail less, but because they turn failures into fuel.

Let me show you why.

The Psychology of Self-Believers: Why Ownership Creates Unstoppable Force

In my quarterly founder meetings (I mentor/advise a few companies), I keep seeing the same pattern play out.

Just last quarter, I met with three founders whose startups were facing critical moments.

Same market conditions. Similar challenges. Radically different responses.

Two of them spent our entire meetings explaining:

• Why the market timing was off
• How their team wasn’t getting it
• What their competitors were doing wrong
• When things would magically turn around

They’re still in the same spot weeks later.

The third founder? She walked in with:

• Three specific mistakes she’d identified
• A clear plan to fix each one
• Actions she’d already taken
• Early results from changes made

Her company grew 40% last month.

Here’s what’s fascinating: She wasn’t smarter or more experienced than the others. She just had one crucial advantage — she believed she could influence outcomes.

The Science of Self-Agency

When people take ownership, it demonstrates a very powerful perspective shift.

Psychologists call this “locus of control” — the degree to which people believe they have power over their lives. But I’ve noticed something the psychology textbooks miss:

Locus of control isn’t fixed. It’s a muscle. And like any muscle, it grows stronger with use.

Every time you take ownership, you:

1. Strengthen your belief in your ability to influence outcomes
2. Increase your capacity to spot opportunities for action
3. Speed up your recovery time from setbacks
4. Build resilience against future challenges

It’s a virtuous cycle that compounds over time.

The Ownership Accelerator

Here’s what makes this psychology so powerful: Ownership creates velocity.

Think about two people facing the same problem:

Person A believes external factors are to blame:

• Waits for conditions to change
• Seeks permission and consensus
• Moves cautiously to avoid blame
• Reacts to circumstances

Person B owns the situation:

• Acts immediately
• Makes decisions autonomously
• Takes calculated risks
• Creates circumstances

By the time Person A finishes their analysis of why something won’t work, Person B has already tried three solutions and learned from the results.

The Counter-Intuitive Edge

But here’s the part that surprises most people: Owners don’t just recover faster — they actually experience less stress during failures.

Research in performance psychology shows that feeling in control, even during negative situations, significantly reduces stress. It’s not the failure that crushes people — it’s the feeling of helplessness.

This explains why I’ve seen owners remain calm during crises that send non-owners into panic:

• They focus on what they can control
• They view challenges as temporary
• They see failures as data points
• They maintain agency even in difficult circumstances

The Ultimate Differentiator

This psychological edge creates a gap that widens over time.

While non-owners are:

• Waiting for perfect conditions
• Avoiding responsibility
• Protecting their ego
• Building cases for why things won’t work

Owners are:

• Creating opportunities
• Taking swift action
• Learning from results
• Building momentum

This is why I bet on owners: Their psychology creates velocity, and velocity creates results.

The Ultimate Self-Bets: Stories of Radical Ownership in Action

Let me share some examples that prove this isn’t just theory.

We’re talking about real people who bet on themselves when everyone else bet against them.

Sara Blakely: The $5 Billion Self-Bet

Before Spanx became a household name, Sara Blakely was a fax machine saleswoman with $5,000 in savings and an idea for footless pantyhose. What happened next is a masterclass in ownership:

• When lawyers told her she couldn’t patent her idea without their expensive help, she bought a textbook and wrote the patent herself
• When manufacturers refused to take her seriously, she drove across Georgia visiting plants until she found one willing to try
• When retailers wouldn’t give her shelf space, she stocked products herself after hours
• When she needed publicity but couldn’t afford PR, she sent samples to Oprah’s makeup artist

She didn’t wait for permission. She didn’t blame the system. She owned every obstacle and found a way around it.

Today, she remains the youngest self-made female billionaire in history.

Howard Schultz: The Coffee Shop That Almost Wasn’t

In 1987, Howard Schultz had to raise $3.8 million to buy Starbucks. After 242 rejections from investors, most people would have blamed the market, their pitch, or their timing.

Schultz’s response? “Every time I was rejected, I refined my pitch. The problem wasn’t the market — it was me. I hadn’t learned to tell the story right yet.”

He kept refining until he got his yes. Then he mortgaged his house to contribute his part of the deal.

That’s ownership. That’s betting on yourself.

Reed Hastings: The $40 Million Mistake

Here’s my favorite ownership story. In 2011, Netflix CEO Reed Hastings made a massive mistake with Qwikster — attempting to split Netflix into two services. The stock plummeted 75%. The internet exploded in outrage.

Hastings’ response?

• No blaming market conditions
• No pointing fingers at advisors
• No hiding behind corporate speak

Instead, he wrote directly to customers: “I messed up. I owe everyone an explanation… It is clear from the feedback over the past two months that many members felt we lacked respect and humility.”

Then he fixed it. Fast.

Most CEOs would have blamed “market conditions” or “customer misunderstanding.” Hastings owned it completely.

Today, Netflix is worth over $100 billion more than before that mistake.

Whitney Wolfe Herd: The Ultimate Comeback

After leaving Tinder amid a sexual harassment lawsuit, Whitney Wolfe Herd could have played the victim. She had every excuse to give up on the dating app industry.

Instead, she took ownership of her future. She built Bumble — a dating app that put women in control. When competitors said the market was saturated, she ignored them. When critics said her approach wouldn’t work, she doubled down.

Result? She became the world’s youngest female self-made billionaire when Bumble went public.

The Pattern You Can’t Ignore

Notice what these stories have in common:

• None waited for perfect conditions
• None blamed external factors for setbacks
• All turned obstacles into opportunities
• All maintained ownership of their destiny

But here’s what’s really interesting: Not one of them was the most qualified person to succeed in their field:

• Blakely wasn’t a fashion industry insider
• Schultz wasn’t from a restaurant background
• Hastings wasn’t a media mogul
• Wolfe Herd wasn’t a tech veteran

They won because they bet on themselves when no one else would.

The Anti-Pattern: A Warning Tale

Contrast these with Elizabeth Holmes of Theranos. When problems emerged with her blood-testing technology, she:

• Blamed engineers for implementation
• Accused competitors of sabotage
• Claimed media bias
• Shifted responsibility to others

The result? The largest fraud case in Silicon Valley history.

The lesson? Success leaves clues. And the biggest clue is how people handle adversity.

The Hidden Signals: How to Spot Self-Believers Before Everyone Else Does

I’ve spent 20 years learning to spot people who bet on themselves.

Here’s my playbook (8 ideas) for identifying them before it becomes obvious to everyone else.

1. Listen to Their Stories

The biggest tell is how people talk about their past.

In any story, listen for these critical differences:

Self-Believers Say:

• “I made the wrong call on…”
• “I learned that I needed to…”
• “I hadn’t yet figured out how to…”
• “Next time, I’ll approach it differently by…”

Non-Owners Say:

• “The timing wasn’t right for…”
• “Nobody told me that…”
• “If only they had…”
• “You can’t succeed when…”

2. Watch Their First Response to Bad News

The most revealing moment isn’t the failure — it’s the first 5 minutes after bad news hits.

Self-Believers:

• Ask “What can I do about this?”
• Start problem-solving immediately
• Focus on next steps
• Look for their role in the outcome

Non-Owners:

• Ask “Who’s responsible for this?”
• Start defending their position
• Focus on explanations
• Look for external factors to blame

3. The Meeting Test

Want to spot a self-believer in any meeting?

Watch what they do when things go off track.

Self-Believers:

• Raise issues early
• Volunteer solutions
• Make specific commitments
• Follow up without being asked

Non-Owners:

• Stay quiet until asked
• Point out problems without solutions
• Make vague commitments
• Wait to be followed up with

4. The Email Signal

Even email patterns tell a story. Look for these markers:

Self-Believer Emails:

“I dropped the ball on this. Here’s my plan to fix it:
1. [Specific action]
2. [Timeline]
3. [Success metric]
Let me know if you need any adjustments to this plan.”

Non-Owner Emails:

“Unfortunately, due to circumstances beyond our control, several challenges have emerged…
We’re hoping that once conditions improve…”

5. The Question Hierarchy

The questions people ask reveal their ownership level.

Listen for this hierarchy:

Level 1 (Lowest Ownership):

• “Why does this always happen to me?”
• “Who’s going to fix this?”
• “When will things get better?”

Level 2 (Medium Ownership):

• “What caused this?”
• “How can we prevent this?”
• “Who needs to be involved?”

Level 3 (High Ownership):

• “What can I do right now?”
• “How can I prevent this next time?”
• “Where did I miss the early warning signs?”

6. The Subtle Red Flags

Watch out for these under-the-radar warning signs:

The Subtle Deflection:

• “That wasn’t my understanding…”
• “I was told that…”
• “Traditionally, we’ve always…”

The Hidden Excuse:

• “With everything going on…”
• “Given the current situation…”
• “Under these circumstances…”

The Responsibility Shuffle:

• “I’ll try my best…”
• “Hopefully we can…”
• “We’ll see what happens…”

7. The Ultimate Test: Give Them Something Broken

Give someone a broken system, process, or project. Then watch:

Self-Believers:

• Dive into understanding the problem
• Take immediate ownership
• Start fixing without being asked
• Keep you updated on progress

Non-Owners:

• List all the reasons it’s broken
• Explain why it’s not their fault
• Wait for complete instructions
• Update only when asked

8. The Career Pattern

Look at their career trajectory:

Self-Believers:

• Have non-linear career paths
• Take calculated risks
• Choose growth over comfort
• Create opportunities

Non-Owners:

• Follow traditional paths
• Take the safe route
• Choose comfort over growth
• Wait for opportunities

Now, let me show you why spotting these patterns early is the secret to exponential returns, and how to use this knowledge to make better bets on people…

The Multiplier Effect: Why Backing Self-Believers Creates Compound Returns

Let me share something I’ve never seen fail:

When you bet on someone who bets on themselves, you get more than linear returns.

You get a multiplier effect that compounds over time.

The Mathematics of Self-Belief

Think about what happens when you back someone who takes ownership:

They solve problems faster

• Non-owners spend weeks building cases for why something can’t be done
• Self-believers spend that same time finding ways to get it done

They learn faster

• Non-owners defend their current knowledge
• Self-believers constantly update their understanding

They compound faster

• Non-owners plateau at their comfort level
• Self-believers turn each challenge into a growth opportunity

The Network Effect of Ownership

Here’s where it gets really interesting. Self-believers don’t just perform better — they create upward spirals in entire organizations:

They Attract Other Owners

• A senior engineer at Apple once told me: “I joined my team because, during my interview, my manager owned up to a massive mistake she’d made. I knew right then this was someone I could learn from.”

They Create Owner Cultures

• When Netflix’s Reed Hastings publicly owned his Qwikster mistake, it set a company-wide standard: “We own our failures here.”

They Develop Other Owners

• Sara Blakely of Spanx is famous for asking her employees: “What did you fail at this week?” turning ownership of failure into a badge of honor.

Here’s how the returns compound over time:

Year 1: Basic Ownership

• Takes responsibility: Stops the blame game and owns outcomes immediately, even the painful ones. When a project misses deadlines, they say “I should have spotted the risks earlier” instead of blaming team bandwidth or external factors.
• Solves immediate problems: Jumps into fires without being asked. They don’t wait for permission to fix what’s broken. When they see a customer issue, they handle it immediately rather than waiting for someone else to notice.
• Learns from mistakes: Turns every failure into a lesson. Instead of hiding errors, they document them, share them, and build processes to prevent them. They keep a “mistakes journal” and review it monthly.

Year 2: Expanded Ownership

• Prevents future problems: Develops an early-warning system for issues. They can spot trouble six months out because they’re looking for it. They’re the first to raise concerns about scalability before it becomes a crisis.
• Creates better systems: Builds processes that prevent problems from happening in the first place. Instead of fighting the same fires repeatedly, they install smoke detectors. They automate what can be automated and systematize what can’t.
• Develops others: Starts teaching ownership mindset to their team. They mentor junior members, share their thought process openly, and create opportunities for others to step up and own outcomes.

Year 3: Strategic Ownership

• Spots opportunities others miss: Sees around corners because they’re not busy making excuses. While others are explaining why something can’t be done, they’re quietly finding the path forward. They spot market shifts early because they’re looking for ways to adapt rather than reasons to stay still.
• Builds ownership cultures: Creates environments where ownership is expected and celebrated. They tell stories about ownership wins, reward people who raise problems early, and make it safe to admit and fix mistakes. Their entire team starts operating differently.
• Creates exponential value: Compounds everything they touch. Their projects don’t just succeed — they spawn new opportunities. Their teams don’t just perform — they transform. Their influence spreads far beyond their formal authority because others want to replicate their results.

This isn’t just career progression — it’s a complete transformation in how someone operates in the world.

Each year builds on the foundation of the previous one, creating compound returns that most people never achieve because they’re still stuck making excuses in year one.

The Viral Nature of Ownership

But here’s the real magic: Ownership spreads. I’ve watched it happen countless times:

1. One person starts taking radical ownership
2. Their results improve dramatically
3. Others notice and emulate
4. The behavior becomes contagious
5. The culture transforms

Let me share one of the best examples of ownership I’ve seen: Brian Chesky in Airbnb’s early days.

In 2008, Airbnb was dying. They had maxed out their credit cards, were $40,000 in debt, and made just $200 a week. Most founders would have blamed the financial crisis, pointed to investor skepticism about their “crazy idea,” or simply given up.

Instead, Chesky took radical ownership of their biggest problem: their listings looked terrible.

Rather than blaming hosts for bad photos or complaining about their lack of resources, he borrowed a camera and personally went door-to-door in New York, taking professional photos of their properties.

He didn’t wait for permission, budget approval, or the “right time.”

He just did it.

The results were immediate: weekly revenue doubled to $400 the first week they replaced amateur photos with his professional ones.

This was ownership in action. No fancy metrics, no committees, no excuses.

Just solving the problem right in front of him.

But here’s where the compound effect kicked in. That simple act of ownership led to:

• Discovering that professional photos were key to trust
• Creating Airbnb’s professional photography program
• Building direct relationships with early hosts
• Understanding their market from the ground up

This hands-on ownership mentality shaped Airbnb’s entire culture. Years later, when they faced trust and safety issues, they didn’t outsource the solution — they created a 24/7 customer support line and put founders on rotation for customer service shifts.

Today, when tech CEOs ask me about building ownership culture, I don’t quote statistics or share management theories.

I tell them about Chesky borrowing a camera and going door-to-door. Because that’s what real ownership looks like — solving problems yourself instead of waiting for someone else to solve them.

The company that started with a founder taking photos of apartments is now worth over $50 billion. But more importantly, it started with someone who refused to make excuses and chose to own the solution.

The Exponential Edge

This is the exponential edge at work.

When you back self-believers like Chesky, you’re not just betting on their current capabilities — taking nice photos of apartments.

You’re betting on their capacity to turn small ownership moments into massive outcomes.

You’re betting on their ability to transform “I’ll fix this myself” into “We’ll build a global solution.”

You’re betting on someone who sees every obstacle as an opportunity to build something bigger.

You’re betting on:

1. Their growth trajectory
2. Their ability to develop others
3. Their cultural influence
4. Their compound learning
5. Their expanding impact

It’s like investing in a company that:

• Doubles its growth rate yearly
• Improves its product automatically
• Trains its own workforce
• Markets itself through results
• Compounds its advantages

The Warning Sign

But here’s the flip side — and this is crucial:

When you back non-owners, you don’t just get linear underperformance. You get:

• Spreading learned helplessness
• Contagious excuse-making
• Cultural deterioration
• Compound mediocrity

One non-owner in a key position can infect an entire organization with “it’s not my fault” syndrome.

Practical Application: How to Bet on Self-Believers (And Become One Yourself)

Let’s turn all of this into actionable steps.

Here’s my framework for evaluating, developing, and becoming a true self-believer.

The Interview Matrix: How to Spot Owners

When evaluating someone, here are the exact questions I ask:

“Tell me about your biggest failure.” Listen for:

• Immediate ownership vs. blame
• Specific learnings vs. vague lessons
• Action taken vs. philosophizing
• Forward focus vs. past justification

“What’s the biggest mistake you’re currently learning from?” Look for:

• Comfort with current challenges
• Active problem-solving
• Specific improvement plans
• Real-time ownership

“What’s something you changed your mind about recently?” Watch for:

• Willingness to admit being wrong
• Evidence of active learning
• Comfort with uncertainty
• Intellectual honesty

The Development Framework: Building Owners

Want to develop ownership in yourself or others? Here’s my system:

Start Small

• Take ownership of one small thing
• Build daily ownership habits
• Celebrate ownership wins
• Learn from micro-failures

Scale Up

• Tackle bigger challenges
• Own broader outcomes
• Lead ownership initiatives
• Develop others

Systematize

• Create ownership processes
• Build feedback loops
• Establish ownership metrics
• Scale through systems

The Personal Transformation Plan

And if you’re ready to become a true self-believer?

Here’s your 30-day plan:

Week 1: Ownership Audit

• Track every excuse you make
• Note every blame statement
• Record every ownership opportunity
• Begin shifting language

Week 2: Response Rewiring

• Change “they” to “I”
• Replace “but” with “and”
• Switch “can’t” to “how can I?”
• Transform complaints into requests

Week 3: Action Acceleration

• Take immediate ownership of problems
• Propose solutions with every critique
• Follow up without being asked
• Document your ownership wins

Week 4: System Building

• Create personal accountability metrics
• Build ownership habits
• Develop support systems
• Share your journey

The Leadership Leverage Points

If you’re leading others, here’s how to create an ownership culture:

Model It

• Own your mistakes publicly
• Share your learning process
• Demonstrate problem-solving
• Celebrate others’ ownership

Reward It

• Recognize ownership behavior
• Promote based on ownership
• Share ownership stories
• Create ownership incentives

Teach It

• Make ownership explicit
• Train ownership skills
• Mentor emerging owners
• Share ownership tools

The Warning Signs in Yourself

Stay alert for these personal ownership slips:

Language Drift

• “They should…”
• “If only…”
• “It’s not fair…”
• “Someone needs to…”

Behavior Slides

• Waiting for permission
• Avoiding tough conversations
• Delaying decisions
• Making excuses

Mindset Traps

• Victim thinking
• Entitlement creep
• Responsibility deflection
• Blame shifting

The Ultimate Ownership Test

Ask yourself daily:

1. “What am I pretending not to have power over?”
2. “Where am I waiting for someone else to solve my problem?”
3. “What excuse am I polishing instead of fixing?”
4. “Where am I choosing comfort over growth?”

Remember: The goal isn’t perfection. It’s progress. Every time you catch yourself making an excuse, you have an opportunity to choose ownership instead.

The Final Challenge

Here’s your immediate action item:

1. Identify one situation you’re currently not owning
2. Write down your usual explanation
3. Rewrite it from an ownership perspective
4. Take one action to address it
5. Repeat

Why This Matters Now More Than Ever

We’re living in extraordinary times:

• AI is rewriting the rules of work
• Remote work is reshaping opportunities
• Economic uncertainty is the new normal
• Change is accelerating exponentially

In this environment, there are two types of people:

1. Those waiting to see what happens to them
2. Those deciding what happens next

The gap between these two groups isn’t getting smaller. It’s exploding.

What I’ve learned after two decades of watching people succeed and fail:

Talent is common. Ideas are plentiful. Resources are available. But ownership? That’s rare.

And here’s the beautiful thing about ownership: It’s a choice. A choice you can make right now.

• You don’t need permission
• You don’t need credentials
• You don’t need perfect conditions
• You just need to decide

Right now, you have a choice:

1. You can close this newsletter and continue as before
2. Or you can make today the day you stop:

• Waiting for permission
• Making excuses
• Blaming circumstances
• Playing it safe

A Final Thought

Remember those two founders I mentioned at the start?

The excuse-maker’s company closed last week. The owner just raised their Series B.

The future belongs to those who bet on themselves.

The only question is: Are you ready to go all-in on you?

Because I know I’m ready to bet on people who bet on themselves.

Will you be one of them?

— Scott

P.S. If this resonated with you, I have a challenge: Take one thing you’ve been making excuses about. Own it completely. Take action today. Then email me what happened. I read every response.