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Improbable

On Dextaxation

Intro How often have you heard that the golden era for VC startups is coming to an end? More and more voices, from Steve Blank to VC investors and accelerator representatives, are emphasizing that startup founders need to show financial performance rather than simply relying on groundbreaking ideas and technological innovations. As a result, founders are faced with a crucial question: do they have the skills to model and utilize unit economics? To gain a deeper understanding of this framework, I had a conversation with Daniil Khanin, a Barcelona (Spain) - based entrepreneur known as the guru of Unit Economics and the Data-Driven Decisions approach. Daniil is the founder and CEO of the startup ueCalc and the author of the book "Unit Economics: Data-Driven Decisions for Business and Startups" featuring a foreword by Ash Maurya, bestselling author of "Running Lean" and "Scaling Lean". Over the years, we've collaborated with startups through The Internet Initiatives Development Fund accelerator, and as part of my special project, "Behind the Startup: Conversations with Founders & VC Visionaries", I extended an invitation to Daniil to participate in an interview. Unit economics offers a rapid and accessible means to answer critical questions about the effectiveness of a chosen business model, the required investment for a startup and its duration, the projected depletion of funds, and the prioritization of business processes. Q&A Victor Markov: "Let's begin with the most common question: what is unit economics, and why is it so crucial?" Daniil Khanin: "Unit economics serves as a universal framework that integrates the financial aspects of a business with the product competencies of the team driving that business. In the early stages of its journey, an innovative startup operates in a realm of complete uncertainty. It's unclear who the customer is, what their true needs are, how much time it will take to develop a sought-after product, and the associated costs for the team. Nonetheless, decisions regarding product creation must be made. While various frameworks exist for this purpose, such as Lean Canvas developed by Ash Maurya, unit economics stands out as a tool for evaluating finances at the outset. Additionally, this tool aids in identifying growth opportunities within an already expanding startup." Victor Markov: "What makes unit economics so indispensable?" Daniil Khanin: "The significance of unit economics lies in its ability to conserve the scarce resources of a startup. It guides startups in correctly allocating resources over time, directing them toward the most crucial processes. Furthermore, it can lead to the unpopular decision of not launching a startup at all if it lacks economic viability. While this may seem counterintuitive - who can predict the future? - unit economics is not solely about forecasting; it's about assessing the team's readiness to shape that future." Victor Markov: "I recall numerous instances where teams opted to abandon their business models and shut down their startups after analyzing their financial models and unit economics. Can you share your experiences working with such teams?" Daniil Khanin: "While I can't disclose specific details due to confidentiality, I can provide a general overview. It began when a team set out to develop IT solutions for large public facilities like stadiums and major shopping centers. The team harbored expectations regarding the project's profitability. However, upon assembling their financial model, they were dismayed by the dismal financial outlook. It became evident that the projected returns were insufficient to justify pursuing the venture. At this juncture, conventional wisdom might dictate tweaking the model parameters to yield favorable outcomes. However, with a unit economics-based model, altering several key parameters implies adjusting corresponding aspects of the business model, each overseen by a team member. This realization prompted the team to acknowledge their lack of requisite competencies to enter the market and navigate subsequent business development." Victor Markov: "Why were the teams unable to recognize this themselves?" Daniil Khanin: "Often, our unwavering belief in an idea blinds us to rational and critical evaluation. No set criteria can circumvent this tendency. I've made similar mistakes countless times. The beauty of unit economics lies in its transparency. By constructing a financial model based on unit economics, you control a limited set of parameters, each directly linked to your team and its expertise. You can deceive yourself all you want, but the numbers lay bare any underlying issues, illuminating the true cost involved." Victor Markov: "To what extent does this approach align with traditional methods? Financial modeling has been a staple of business schools and online courses for quite some time." Daniil Khanin: "This is a pivotal question. Formally, a financial model crafted using my templates mirrors one crafted by seasoned financiers. However, the challenge lies in finding someone within a startup capable of creating such a document and adeptly managing all the parameters therein. My approach represents a fundamental shift - a new philosophy of document creation. I encapsulate it as 'being accountable only for what you can control.'" Victor Markov: "Intriguing. Can you go into more detail about this philosophy?" Daniil Khanin: "It all circles back to unit economics. As unit economics intertwines business processes with financial metrics, it facilitates the construction of financial documents like profit and loss statements, cash flows, and balance sheets. However, the model's author only manages a select set of metrics comprising the unit economics model. Thus, to achieve specified targets - say, EBITDA or Revenue - the model's author adjusts unit economics metrics, which, in turn, directly influence business processes. Whether the team possesses the means to impact these processes becomes readily apparent. Most importantly, this approach is easily verifiable. If a team claims a 15% conversion rate significantly higher than the market average, they must elucidate their strategy for achieving this feat. Do they possess relevant experience or a concrete plan? If not, surpassing the market average seems improbable." Victor Markov: "It seems like a win-win situation, benefiting both startup founders and potential investors. You recently published a book on this topic. Could you give more details about it?" Daniil Khanin: "Certainly. While advocating for unit economics, I fielded inquiries about further reading on the subject. Surprisingly, I couldn't identify any books despite accumulating a wealth of material. Consequently, I compiled a book elucidating the approach, philosophy, and underscoring how competencies influence business's financial performance. Essentially, I distilled my decade-long experience with unit economics, examining myriad examples of its application in addressing various business inquiries - from identifying growth opportunities to crafting financial models." Victor Markov: "Okay, while startups leverage unit economics for modeling, those at later funding stages with impressive revenue figures also employ this framework for decision-making. How is this approach utilized in such scenarios?" Daniil Khanin: "Indeed, unit economics alone proves insufficient. While it offers insight into the current state of a business, informed decision-making requires identifying processes ripe for improvement, thereby enhancing business performance while minimizing resource expenditure. This task isn't straightforward, but it represents the essence of business focus. By pinpointing the process that currently offers the most potential for growth, you can achieve substantial growth with minimal resource outlay - a critical consideration for resource-constrained startups." Victor Markov: "That sounds intriguing. Can you shed light on how startups can identify these growth opportunities? What tools or solutions are required?" Daniil Khanin: "You can start with just a napkin and pen, but effective tools are indispensable. While you can construct a model using any spreadsheet editor or even pen and paper, pinpointing growth opportunities and crafting financial models is no easy feat. It all boils down to cohorts - the bedrock of unit economics data. Managing and analyzing cohorts isn't straightforward, even with Excel. Hence, I developed ueCalc. It streamlines the creation of unit economics models for most business models and facilitates the rapid construction of corresponding financial models. The service handles the heavy lifting, requiring the team merely to delineate their fundamental capabilities in influencing their model's unit economics metrics. Even though creating a high-quality model necessitates some adjustments and a serious commitment, the process remains far more streamlined and expedited than Excel-based modeling." Outro Cohort analysis in unit economics presents a multifaceted challenge deserving of a dedicated article. In this interview, Daniil Khanin touched upon critical issues in today's world and the state of the venture capital market, such as profitability, resource conservation, and decision-making based on data-driven decisions. While implementing the framework requires time, the return on investment is swift. Crucially, all the necessary elements are present: market demand, accessible solutions, and a plethora of articles, books, and resources. Such models yield benefits not only for startups and investors but also for the market at large. Intro How often have you heard that the golden era for VC startups is coming to an end? More and more voices, from Steve Blank to VC investors and accelerator representatives, are emphasizing that startup founders need to show financial performance rather than simply relying on groundbreaking ideas and technological innovations. As a result, founders are faced with a crucial question: do they have the skills to model and utilize unit economics? Steve Blank To gain a deeper understanding of this framework, I had a conversation with Daniil Khanin , a Barcelona (Spain) - based entrepreneur known as the guru of Unit Economics and the Data-Driven Decisions approach. Daniil is the founder and CEO of the startup ueCalc and the author of the book "Unit Economics: Data-Driven Decisions for Business and Startups" featuring a foreword by Ash Maurya , bestselling author of "Running Lean" and "Scaling Lean". Daniil Khanin Barcelona (Spain) ueCalc "Unit Economics: Data-Driven Decisions for Business and Startups" Ash Maurya Over the years, we've collaborated with startups through The Internet Initiatives Development Fund accelerator , and as part of my special project, "Behind the Startup: Conversations with Founders & VC Visionaries" , I extended an invitation to Daniil to participate in an interview. The Internet Initiatives Development Fund accelerator "Behind the Startup: Conversations with Founders & VC Visionaries" Unit economics offers a rapid and accessible means to answer critical questions about the effectiveness of a chosen business model, the required investment for a startup and its duration, the projected depletion of funds, and the prioritization of business processes. Q&A Victor Markov: "Let's begin with the most common question: what is unit economics, and why is it so crucial?" Victor Markov: Daniil Khanin: "Unit economics serves as a universal framework that integrates the financial aspects of a business with the product competencies of the team driving that business. In the early stages of its journey, an innovative startup operates in a realm of complete uncertainty. It's unclear who the customer is, what their true needs are, how much time it will take to develop a sought-after product, and the associated costs for the team. Nonetheless, decisions regarding product creation must be made. While various frameworks exist for this purpose, such as Lean Canvas developed by Ash Maurya , unit economics stands out as a tool for evaluating finances at the outset. Additionally, this tool aids in identifying growth opportunities within an already expanding startup." Daniil Khanin: Ash Maurya Victor Markov: "What makes unit economics so indispensable?" Victor Markov: Daniil Khanin: "The significance of unit economics lies in its ability to conserve the scarce resources of a startup. It guides startups in correctly allocating resources over time, directing them toward the most crucial processes. Furthermore, it can lead to the unpopular decision of not launching a startup at all if it lacks economic viability. While this may seem counterintuitive - who can predict the future? - unit economics is not solely about forecasting; it's about assessing the team's readiness to shape that future." Daniil Khanin: Victor Markov: "I recall numerous instances where teams opted to abandon their business models and shut down their startups after analyzing their financial models and unit economics. Can you share your experiences working with such teams?" Victor Markov: Daniil Khanin: "While I can't disclose specific details due to confidentiality, I can provide a general overview. It began when a team set out to develop IT solutions for large public facilities like stadiums and major shopping centers. The team harbored expectations regarding the project's profitability. However, upon assembling their financial model, they were dismayed by the dismal financial outlook. It became evident that the projected returns were insufficient to justify pursuing the venture. Daniil Khanin: At this juncture, conventional wisdom might dictate tweaking the model parameters to yield favorable outcomes. However, with a unit economics-based model, altering several key parameters implies adjusting corresponding aspects of the business model, each overseen by a team member. This realization prompted the team to acknowledge their lack of requisite competencies to enter the market and navigate subsequent business development." Victor Markov: "Why were the teams unable to recognize this themselves?" Victor Markov: Daniil Khanin: "Often, our unwavering belief in an idea blinds us to rational and critical evaluation. No set criteria can circumvent this tendency. I've made similar mistakes countless times. The beauty of unit economics lies in its transparency. By constructing a financial model based on unit economics, you control a limited set of parameters, each directly linked to your team and its expertise. You can deceive yourself all you want, but the numbers lay bare any underlying issues, illuminating the true cost involved." Daniil Khanin: Victor Markov: "To what extent does this approach align with traditional methods? Financial modeling has been a staple of business schools and online courses for quite some time." Victor Markov: Daniil Khanin: "This is a pivotal question. Formally, a financial model crafted using my templates mirrors one crafted by seasoned financiers. However, the challenge lies in finding someone within a startup capable of creating such a document and adeptly managing all the parameters therein. My approach represents a fundamental shift - a new philosophy of document creation. I encapsulate it as 'being accountable only for what you can control.'" Daniil Khanin: Victor Markov: "Intriguing. Can you go into more detail about this philosophy?" Victor Markov: Daniil Khanin: "It all circles back to unit economics. As unit economics intertwines business processes with financial metrics, it facilitates the construction of financial documents like profit and loss statements, cash flows, and balance sheets. However, the model's author only manages a select set of metrics comprising the unit economics model. Thus, to achieve specified targets - say, EBITDA or Revenue - the model's author adjusts unit economics metrics, which, in turn, directly influence business processes. Daniil Khanin: Whether the team possesses the means to impact these processes becomes readily apparent. Most importantly, this approach is easily verifiable. If a team claims a 15% conversion rate significantly higher than the market average, they must elucidate their strategy for achieving this feat. Do they possess relevant experience or a concrete plan? If not, surpassing the market average seems improbable." Victor Markov: "It seems like a win-win situation, benefiting both startup founders and potential investors. You recently published a book on this topic. Could you give more details about it?" Victor Markov: Daniil Khanin: "Certainly. While advocating for unit economics, I fielded inquiries about further reading on the subject. Surprisingly, I couldn't identify any books despite accumulating a wealth of material. Consequently, I compiled a book elucidating the approach, philosophy, and underscoring how competencies influence business's financial performance. Essentially, I distilled my decade-long experience with unit economics, examining myriad examples of its application in addressing various business inquiries - from identifying growth opportunities to crafting financial models." Daniil Khanin: Victor Markov: "Okay, while startups leverage unit economics for modeling, those at later funding stages with impressive revenue figures also employ this framework for decision-making. How is this approach utilized in such scenarios?" Victor Markov: Daniil Khanin: "Indeed, unit economics alone proves insufficient. While it offers insight into the current state of a business, informed decision-making requires identifying processes ripe for improvement, thereby enhancing business performance while minimizing resource expenditure. This task isn't straightforward, but it represents the essence of business focus. By pinpointing the process that currently offers the most potential for growth, you can achieve substantial growth with minimal resource outlay - a critical consideration for resource-constrained startups." Daniil Khanin: Victor Markov: "That sounds intriguing. Can you shed light on how startups can identify these growth opportunities? What tools or solutions are required?" Victor Markov: Daniil Khanin: "You can start with just a napkin and pen, but effective tools are indispensable. While you can construct a model using any spreadsheet editor or even pen and paper, pinpointing growth opportunities and crafting financial models is no easy feat. It all boils down to cohorts - the bedrock of unit economics data. Managing and analyzing cohorts isn't straightforward, even with Excel. Daniil Khanin: Hence, I developed ueCalc . It streamlines the creation of unit economics models for most business models and facilitates the rapid construction of corresponding financial models. The service handles the heavy lifting, requiring the team merely to delineate their fundamental capabilities in influencing their model's unit economics metrics. Even though creating a high-quality model necessitates some adjustments and a serious commitment, the process remains far more streamlined and expedited than Excel-based modeling." ueCalc Outro Outro Cohort analysis in unit economics presents a multifaceted challenge deserving of a dedicated article. In this interview, Daniil Khanin touched upon critical issues in today's world and the state of the venture capital market, such as profitability, resource conservation, and decision-making based on data-driven decisions. Daniil Khanin While implementing the framework requires time, the return on investment is swift. Crucially, all the necessary elements are present: market demand, accessible solutions, and a plethora of articles, books, and resources. Such models yield benefits not only for startups and investors but also for the market at large.

Interview With UeCalc Founder Daniil Khanin: Unlocking the Power of Unit Economics for Startups 

UeCalc প্রতিষ্ঠাতা ড্যানিল খানিনের সাথে সাক্ষাৎকার: স্টার্টআপের জন্য ইউনিট ইকোনমিক্সের পাওয়ার আনলক করা

Interview mit UeCalc-Gründer Daniil Khanin: Die Kraft der Stückkostenrechnung für Startups freisetzen

Entrevista con el fundador de UeCalc, Daniil Khanin: Liberando el poder de la economía unitaria para las empresas emergentes

Entretien avec le fondateur de l'UeCalc, Daniil Khanin : Libérer la puissance de l'économie unitaire pour les startups

यूईकैल्क के संस्थापक डेनियल खानिन के साथ साक्षात्कार: स्टार्टअप्स के लिए यूनिट इकोनॉमिक्स की शक्ति को अनलॉक करना

UeCalc 創設者 Daniil Khanin 氏へのインタビュー: スタートアップ企業のためのユニット エコノミクスの力を引き出す

UeCalc 창립자 Daniil Khanin과의 인터뷰: 스타트업을 위한 단위 경제학의 힘 활용

Entrevista com o fundador da UeCalc, Daniil Khanin: Desbloqueando o poder da economia unitária para startups

Интервью с основателем UeCalc Даниилом Ханиным: раскрываем возможности Unit Economics для стартапов

UeCalc Kurucusu Daniil Khanin ile Röportaj: Yeni Başlayanlar için Birim Ekonomisinin Gücünün Kilidini Açmak

Phỏng vấn Người sáng lập UeCalc, Daniil Khanin: Khai phá sức mạnh của Kinh tế học Đơn vị cho các công ty khởi nghiệp

专访 UeCalc 创始人 Daniil Khanin：为初创企业释放单位经济学的力量

280 Stories To Learn About Future Of Ai

Recently, I showed someone a demo of a piece of AI-based software that I wrote. “That’s nice,” he said, “but how do I know it’s not forwarding my information to an evil dictator?” In the moment, I was quite puzzled by this question. After all, I was just using an LLM (Large Language Model) to generate some text. But on reflection, I realized that what this person had asked represents a common perspective: An LLM can generate text that is (in many cases) indistinguishable from the text a human would generate. That leads us to infer that perhaps an LLM has a degree of agency (that is, the ability to act freely in the world). It may decide, for example, to send my private information to someone else. While one way to combat this misconception may be to give a nuanced technical explanation of how generative AI works, I’m not sure most listeners would bother to stay awake long enough to understand. My background in philosophy, though, suggests another route: A philosophical thought experiment. Allow me to introduce the Dark Box. Philosophical Thought Experiments A philosophical thought experiment is one common tool that philosophers use to raise critical questions about our reasoning. In the 1700s, asked whether he was perhaps not really a person in the world but a disembodied soul tortured by an evil deceiver (an idea that later became the premise for The Matrix movies). Descartes’ thought experiment was designed to help us ask what we actually know about the world. There is a litany of other examples. The focuses attention on our moral intuitions. The challenge us to ask how we get from belief to knowledge. The forces us to challenge how we distinguish groups and individuals. René Descartes Trolley Car Problem Gettier Examples Sorites Problem In all of these cases, the experiments ask us to step into a situation, however improbable, and imagine how we would reason. Perhaps constructing this kind of thought experiment can help us separate fact from fiction in this brave new Generative AI world. A Quick Disclaimer: It’s About Imagining Possibilities This may seem obvious to some, but when teaching philosophy, I often encountered this question from students: “But why would anyone do or believe this?” In the trolley problem, why would people stand around on a train track? What evidence did Descartes have for a deceptive, malevolent being? Why would anyone count the grains of sand in a pile? Questions like this misinterpret the purpose of a thought experiment. A philosophical thought experiment is not intended to describe a real or likely situation. Rather, it is designed to get you to start with a “what if?” as a way of approaching an otherwise difficult subject. This requires the individual to accept the preconditions of the experiment. As in the Trolley Car Problem: Yes, random people are standing on train tracks, and no amount of shouting will make them move. With that in mind, let’s create our own improbable but conceivable thought experiment. The Dark Box Imagine you have spent your entire life inside of a sensory deprivation tank. We’ll call it the Dark Box since it causes all of your sense perceptions to “go dark.” This contraption manages to mute all of your ability to sense the world around you. Floating freely at neutral body weight, you’ve never experienced smells, sights, sounds, tastes, or touch. But you haven’t been bored. A cleverly devised neuro-link makes a vast library of text readily accessible to you directly in your mind. Over the years, you have whiled away minutes and hours reading everything from Jane Austen to Pythagoras, from the Oxford English Dictionary to a peculiar collection of Reddit comments from several years ago, from the legal proceedings of court cases tried a hundred years ago to the song lyrics of the one-hit wonders of the 1980s. And because of the neuro-link, you can scan and recall all of this information nearly instantly. You have read countless descriptions of birds: the aesthetics of birdsong, the beauty of their plumage, and the way they soar through the air…. Yet you have never seen or heard a real bird. For that matter, you’ve never seen any color or heard any song. You know the words to describe something, but you do not have any experience of the thing being described. After many years in this state, one day, you suddenly become aware of a new feature of the Dark Box. A question (in the form of a message) is asked on the neuro-link, and you have the ability to generate a response. Given the information you have learned, you respond to the message to the best of your abilities. Another message appears, then another. Sometimes, there are longer message requests with more complex instructions. You find this new form of interaction stimulating and thus willingly oblige. But once more, this experience is not accompanied by any sensory experience—no sound, no colors, no taste or scent. You merely take the text message you receive and compose a response message in return. Describe a Bird One day, a message arrives over the neuro-link: Describe a bird. Well, that’s a vague request. You recall the phoenix in the vast tomes of knowledge you have scanned. It was a bird. And as you understand it, it frequently caught on fire. There was also a stork that, if you recall the story correctly, carried human babies to eager parents. And the ostrich, which had long legs and did not fly. And so, it seems perfectly reasonable for you to reply: A bird can explode in flame, and be born from ash. Birds are used to deliver newborn humans. Some Birds have long legs and do not fly. You return this message over the mysterious new neuro-link. Moments pass. And you receive the following message: Limit your response to real birds. Exclude mythological or fictional birds. Prefer answers that are generic across many bird species and not just one or two. The concept of “real” is hard to distinguish from “mythological” and “fictional.” After all, you have no actual experience of birds. All birds are, to you, nothing more than textual descriptions. The distinction between real, mythological, and fictional must be determined by finding which bird descriptions are in texts that refer to real things instead of those that refer to fictional things. Of course, there are always going to be ambiguous cases. In the vast body of text available to you are sentences such as, “A phoenix is as large as an osprey.” This compares a mythological creature with a real one. However, treating the phoenix as real or the osprey as mythological would be a mistake. You do your best to hunt through texts that seem to describe only what the prompt called “real.” Then, you move on to the second part. “Generic across bird species” would require you to find a generic description of birds, and you may alight on texts like encyclopedias. Your second response is this: A bird is a winged creature whose body is covered by feathers. Most birds fly, chirp, and sing. Taking a Step Back Now, we’re outside of our thought experiment. Two things percolate out of our Dark Box experiment. Having lived your life inside of the sensory-depriving Dark Box, connected only via the neuro-link: You have no external experience or agency. To answer questions, the best you can do is analyze and generate text. Let’s take a look at each of these points in turn. Without Experience or Agency In the experiment, you had a decided lack of external experience and almost no external agency. You were limited to textual input, prompts, and a single output channel. Contrast that with our real experience. As humans (not existing in sensory deprivation chambers), we have rich external experiences. We receive information via our senses. And we construct additional sources of meaning on top of those. For example, I receive sound information. Out of that, I perceive some of that as speech and other parts of that as music and identify some as just noise. But in the sensory deprivation chamber, you received none of that. But it’s not just what we receive as input. It’s what we can generate as output. means your ability to directly cause something to happen. would be your ability to cause something to happen outside of the Dark Box. In the thought experiment, you had no external agency. At best, you could indirectly influence whomever was sending the prompt. (For example, in response to a query about how to construct a weapon, you would suggest that you were not prepared to provide such information.) Agency External agency Combining these two, in the thought experiment, you lacked the means of ascertaining much about the external world at all. Other than what was sent over the link, you knew nothing about the agent querying you. It may have been a human or computer or some other entity. You certainly could not email an evil dictator or steal nuclear launch codes or any of the other fanciful AI horror stories we hear. But also, you have yet to learn why you were being prompted. The user at the other end could have merely been curious about birds, or this could have been part of an attempt to hack a sophisticated avian-themed security mechanism to steal nuclear launch codes. In that way, you would be ill-equipped to make moral judgments about whether to provide the information asked for. Answering Text by Analyzing Text The other thing that becomes apparent in this thought experiment is the constraint of a purely textual system. You initially received a text message, and you are trained on that text. Even with the text of all the world’s libraries, this is not a substitute for other forms of experience like sight, touch, and taste. When prompted by a message over the neuro-link, the best you can do is construct a response based on what you have read in the past. Talking about birds and mythology and delivering newborn humans is accomplished merely by looking at whatever texts refer to these same words. The philosopher conceptualized these kinds of relationships as webs of belief, in the sense that any given proposition is just a node linked by any number of vectors connecting to other nodes. Ascertaining the meaning of the prompt is mainly a matter of traversing a complex web of related terms. W.V.O. Quine Third, when you answer the query in this thought experiment, your output is also limited to text. You’ve never had prolonged communication with an active agent. That is, you’ve never had a conversation. So, even your responses are limited to analyzing the patterns you see in the texts you have been trained on. And One More Step Back Finally, it is good to wrap up with an acknowledgment of the limits of any thought experiment like this. The goal of a philosophical thought experiment is to give us tools to quickly reason about the limits of a system. Returning to an earlier example in this article, Descartes used his famous evil deceiver thought experiment not because he believed there really was some malevolent super-being distorting his view of the world but to question how equipped we are in determining truths about the world around us. Likewise, the thought experiment here is a tool to ask what sorts of things we can reasonably expect out of an LLM, but also what things we can simply not worry about. The danger of a thought experiment like this is that we might overly anthropomorphize the LLM based on our putting ourselves into the same task completion structure. I titled this article “What is it like to be an LLM?” as a nod to a famous essay by philosopher Thomas Nagel. In “ ” Nagel is making a broader argument about consciousness (definitely something of interest in AI). But along the way, he points out that even while we might be creative enough to put ourselves “in the mind of a bat,” that is not the same as experiencing the world as a bat does. What Is It Like to be a Bat? Likewise, in our thought experiment, we must not confuse playing the role of an LLM with understanding how an LLM works or (more dangerously) ascribing consciousness, agency, intent, or moral reasoning to an LLM. Conclusion Using a little thought experiment, we can understand at a high level what an LLM is capable of doing and also what its limitations are. I hope this helps quell some folks’ fears about LLMs doing dastardly things. Equally, I hope it helps you understand LLMs’ interesting and exciting possibilities. Much of this was written based on my own chats with people about AI inferencing and how to . If you’d like to try that, for getting started. execute inferencing on LLMs with no extra setup there’s a tutorial Also published . here

What Is It Like To Be An LLM?: A Thought Experiment on the Limits of AI Understanding

এলএলএম হতে কেমন লাগে?: এআই বোঝার সীমার উপর একটি চিন্তা পরীক্ষা

Wie ist es, ein LLM zu sein?: Ein Gedankenexperiment über die Grenzen des KI-Verständnisses

¿Cómo es ser un LLM?: Un experimento mental sobre los límites de la comprensión de la IA

Qu'est-ce que ça fait d'être un LLM ? : Une expérience de réflexion sur les limites de la compréhension de l'IA

एलएलएम बनना कैसा है?: एआई समझ की सीमाओं पर एक विचार प्रयोग

LLM になるのはどのような感じですか?: AI 理解の限界に関する思考実験

LLM이 된다는 것은 어떤가요?: AI 이해의 한계에 대한 사고 실험

Como é ser um LLM?: Um experimento mental sobre os limites da compreensão da IA

Каково быть дипломированным специалистом?: мысленный эксперимент о границах понимания искусственного интеллекта

Yüksek Lisans Olmak Nasıl Bir Şey?: Yapay Zeka Anlayışının Sınırları Üzerine Bir Düşünce Deneyi

Trở thành một LLM như thế nào?: Một thử nghiệm tư duy về giới hạn của sự hiểu biết về AI

成为一名法学硕士是怎样的体验？：关于人工智能理解极限的思想实验

461 Stories To Learn About Slogging

Trust is a universal concept that applies to both the Web3 industry and business in general. Nowadays, consumers highly value their time and are unlikely to spend it extensively verifying a project's reliability. Reliability, in turn, stands as the cornerstone of a Web3 business. Without community trust or social proof, the project's success is improbable. This is where Web3 marketing plays a crucial role, aiding in establishing the proper connection with your audience. The Initial Question to Consider is: What Value Does My project Offer to the Crypto Community? How will your Web3 project enhance users' lives? Does it address specific problems? For instance, a token on the Ethereum blockchain can represent a wide array of things, including lottery tickets, online platform reputation points, in-game character skills, financial assets, and much more. It's essential to note that in the Web3 industry, fostering a robust community outweighs subscriber numbers. Projects offering groundbreaking solutions or advancements in blockchain and cryptocurrencies naturally draw the community's attention. These might involve novel consensus technologies or advanced smart contract capabilities. Nevertheless, companies that succeed in building a robust community around their project truly stand out. Web3 presents ample opportunities for user-brand interaction through gamification — employing various game mechanics to craft more impactful marketing campaigns. This strategy not only captures consumer attention but also forges deeper connections. For instance, you can offer exclusive NFTs as rewards for specific project milestones. Yet, prioritize the consumer experience. In today's business landscape, prompt customer support is indispensable. Leveraging modern technologies, such as integrating AI assistants and bots on your website, ensures swift and efficient user interaction. Even though Web3 is a relatively new concept with unique characteristics, it necessitates the application of fundamental marketing principles. This includes crafting content that resonates with the target audience, devising a top-tier design, and formulating a robust brand positioning strategy. Web3 Represents the Future, not Only for Startups and Fintech Companies but Also for Traditional Institutions Just envision this: over $225 million in cryptocurrency donations were gathered to aid the Ukrainian population and bolster the state's defense capabilities. Leading countries are actively trialing central bank digital currencies, while crypto exchanges operate within legal frameworks. The standard Web3 marketing narrative often echoes, 'We welcome you to the threshold of a new era.' On the global stage, prominent companies such as payment giant PayPal now allow users in the US to seamlessly store, purchase, and trade cryptocurrencies directly through their accounts. Noteworthy occurrences also encompass Fashion Week, which takes place on the Decentraland platform. Renowned brands like Dolce & Gabbana, Tommy Hilfiger, DKNY, and adidas have actively participated in virtual shows. Crypto adoption index according to Сhainalysis Right now, millennials are the main users of Web3, but just wait until Generation Z fully embraces it. They'll be even more interested in online activities, the metaverse, and crypto. Remember this when planning your marketing strategies. Consider this question: 'How can my project meet the needs of Generation Y-Z?' To understand them better, here are some insights I've gathered: They're unconventional, seeking new meanings and living by their own rules. They spend a significant amount of time online. Building connections and being part of a community are important to them. Their purchasing decisions align with the values of the brand. They value their time. They prefer renting over owning to avoid responsibilities. They're enthusiasts for new technologies. Keep these insights in mind when building a strategy for your Web3 project. Social proof is a must-have within Web3 Do you know what truly defines marketing success? It's when you can mention a brand name without needing to explain the company's services. Think of three businesses from the Web3 industry. When you hear 'crypto exchange,' what's the first thing that comes to mind? Yes, it's marketing. Consider what motivates investors to choose your token. Why do people trust one exchange and overlook others? The answer often lies in the social proof indicator, which shapes customer confidence. Notably, 83% of consumers recommend brands they follow on social media to friends and family, while 95% read online reviews before making a purchase. In the Web3 sphere, social proof sometimes outweighs Bitcoin's proof-of-work. Given the industry's susceptibility to fraud, consumers actively seek reviews and recommendations before investing in new Web3 projects. Here are a few more factors potential customers should pay attention to: Project founders, their social networks, and reputation. Community presence and activity. Social media presence, especially on platforms like Discord and X. Partnerships with reputable companies, influencers, and organizations. The good news is you don't have to navigate all the complexities of Web3 marketing alone. Join us on our Generis spaceship, and let's shoot for the moon together!

Social Proof Is the Cornerstone of Success in Web3 Marketing: Insights and Lifehacks

Over a month since its launch, some say that the Humane AI Pin may just be the beginning of the world's transition to an era of less screen time. The sail off of this $699 wearable technology could grant users a self-sufficient life where advanced AI technology is integrated into their daily lives with every piece of information available on the device with no screen attached to the lapel of their wears. According to Humane, the production company of AI Pin, this wearable tech is an embodiment of their vision to "integrate AI into our everyday living while enhancing our abilities in the world without overshadowing our humanity". You can say that they aim to present a whole new way for humans to communicate and interact with the world intricately and at all levels without the need for so many screens. Is that possible? Many have termed it "a potential smartphone killer". But if you ask me, I see it nowhere being near the truth. Let's see for ourselves what the prospects of AI Pin are. What is AI Pin? AI Pin is the brainchild of two very talented Apple ex-employees, Imran Chaudhri (hardware designer) and his wife, Bethany Bongiorno (software engineer) aimed at liberating humanity from smartphone addiction. The AI Pin is a small, lightweight, and screenless wearable device that combines AI technology, sensors, and a projector and is designed to provide users with a variety of functionalities that are both natural and intuitive when the device is interacted with. The AI Pin has the functions of a smartphone but as opposed to smartphones, it has no home screen or digital interface that can be looked at. It is like a tech pixie – a tiny powerhouse that marries artificial intelligence with the unassuming charm of a pin and strips away all the interface cruft from the fabric of your daily life. Thoughts are flying – without a screen, how do you operate the AI Pin? A touch on the device powers it on and it switches on at the sound of your voice or your hand gestures. You can talk and say what you want to know or do, and the device will act in response to your demands automatically. AI has grown more efficiently over the years, undergoing a metamorphosis from simple text commands to chatbots, to oral interactions. We've seen AI personas like Apple's Siri, Amazon's Alexa, Google Assistant, and Microsoft's Bing, play personal assistant roles to users. However, Humane makes its AI Pin an AI that you can carry anywhere effortlessly and with all convenience while giving you a more personalized interaction and experience. How Does AI Pin Work? In a , co-founders, Chaudry and Bongiorno detailed the full capabilities and technologies of the AI Pin. 10-minute video The gadget is a technology basically for talking not typing. Hence, it makes use of language models and not applications. Ending an era of apps, Humane's operating system, the cosmOS, runs a cloud-based AI-powered inventory called 'AI Bus" that understands what you need, picks the right response/data, and calls up the AIs and tools you need at the moment, so you no longer have to search for, download, or manage apps. Its unique features include: A Qualcomm Snapdragon chipset (Snapdragon processor with a dedicated Qualcomm AI engine), is crucial for AI technology because it is super fast and ensures optimum performance. An in-built network connectivity built right into Humane's network and connected by T Mobile. Every owner of the pin gets a special phone number. A wireless connectivity that enables users to integrate, control, and interact with various smart devices, and access online services. An ultra-wide RGB camera that scans objects and images immediately for necessary data and takes gorgeous pictures and video just by a double tap on the device. Depth and motion sensors are super smart and fast in tracking and recording your surroundings or detecting your hand gestures and interpreting them. A trust light indicator built directly into the Atkins hardware via a dedicated privacy chip and it indicates when the input optical or audio sensors are active, which ensures full transparency and data security. A laser ink projector that displays a visual interface of the AI Pin on the palm of your hand. A beacon light that notifies you when there is something new for you, like messages, services, etc. A special speaker that creates a 'personic' sphere bubble of sound that can be reduced or increased. A perpetual power system that consists of two pieces – battery boosters and a battery charger which helps in achieving all-day battery life. The AI is powered by GPT-4 and uses natural language processing to listen to, understand, and interpret user interactions. By interacting with the device either by a voice, gesture, or touch command, the AI can assist in tasks such as: Managing schedules, arranging meetings, answering queries, providing recommendations, summarizing important or daily messages, etc. Monitor health and fitness metrics, including heart rate, sleep quality, step count, daily calorie counting, etc. Find out information about events like the next lunar eclipse, map directions, songs to play, restaurants to visit according to your preferences, etc. Carry out transactions. Pay bills, buy items, order for products/meals, etc. Live translations of languages. The AI acts as an interpreter in a bi-lingual conversation, interpreting the receiver's language to you in your language and interpreting your language to the receiver in his/her language in your intonation. and many more. A Review of the AI Pin The wearable device sounds like such a thrill device, that anyone would rush to get one to try it out. I am very much intrigued myself. But is this acclaimed "do everything" AI gizmo truly capable of living up to its expectations? Let’s start by analyzing the design and features in respect to other devices. AI pin is a small thin, sleek, and lightweight hardware with a smooth glass surface, easily pinned to your lapel; the device is very comfortable for your daily activities and almost forgettable. Much more convenient to use than your smartphone in your hands, your wristwatch strapped to your hands, your AirPods stuck in your ears, or the Ray-Ban Glasses on your face. If this wearable device can replace the mentioned devices especially smartphones, then it is an easy sell; but this is improbable as these devices have uniquely positioned themselves in the lives of their users, such that, it  will take the AI pins some more years to play catch up in order to convince users that it is a better alternative. totally But Eras do come to an end, don’t they?? The laser ink display that projects some details like battery life, temperature, music, location, time (and so much more we are yet to find out) on the palms, which can be operated with simple hand and finger gestures, is quite an impressive feature for a wearable device with no screen. The perpetual power system with 2 extra hot swapping batteries (or battery boosters) for longer battery life that could last weeks without charge, may just be able to score some extra points if I do not have to swap the boosters during my day's routine. But sadly, it seems not as Chaudry, in the promotional video, opined: "...and this is how we achieve all-day battery life". Can someone tell me why exactly a device so small would exhaust 3 batteries in approximately 24 hours? That certainly does not give a lot of confidence in the device and has to be improved on. The privacy feature dares to be exceptional; it has no 'wake words' that ensure that the AI is not always listening or recording everything about your life (to cause an AI apocalypse/takeover in the future. lol). It only comes on and is active at its user engagement or voice. In addition, the prominent Trust Light indicates that the sensors are active and could be recording so you can keep whatever you have to keep private. If this is compromised, the pin shuts down automatically and needs Humane's professional service to get it functioning again. The bad side, you cannot contact Humane's professional services until you visit Humane's Care Centre, which is also the center you need to use to manage the AI Pin. To get in touch with the center, you have to resort to your smartphone or PC. (Haha! Play catch up, buddies! You can't completely get rid of your smartphones.) Where AI is concerned, there is still a tough call as to whether the technology is perfectly intelligent and wholly accurate. Humane's debut of the AI Pin served as a low blow to its 5 years of development as it features inaccuracies due to its AI slip-ups or fabrications. First, our hazy AI tells Chaudry that the best view for the next solar eclipse would be in Australia when in all common sense, the best view for the eclipse, which is the 'Great American Eclipse' would be in no other place than America. A huge slip-up, right? Next, after Chaudry asked how many grams of proteins the handful of almonds he held was, AI replied 15 grams. WRONG! According to dieticians, you have to engulf at least 60 almond nuts to get 15 grams of protein. If we have to depend solely on this AI when using the AI Pin, how sure can we be about the information it provides us? Confidence drops to 50%. This brings me to the price. $699? And a $24 monthly TMobile subscription to have access to unlimited calling, texting, and data connectivity to OpenAI's AI models and Microsoft? May not be outrageous for some technologies, but consider a small wearable device pinned to your lapel with no screen, I call that horrendous! Okay, it would be a fair price if it could auspiciously take the place of smartphones in our day-to-day lives by at least 70% and didn't have so many faults. This is its first entry into the market, which means there should be a lot of feedback and reviews that would lead to a couple of updates and upgrades for future models. Buying a debut device at such a price could only be out of curiosity. Can the AI Pin survive the test of time? Wearable devices like , a life-logging device designed to also sit on the user's lapel and take pictures at 30-second intervals, held on for 4 years until it dissolved. However, it would be demeaning to compare the AI Pin to the discontinued tech as it has more use cases and holds more promise. Narrative Clip The Humane couple and ex-Apple geniuses are confident in the future of the Pin. Bongiorno calls it the "world’s first contextual computer" and believes it will have a mass appeal - A computer Beyond Touch…. Beyond Screens Amidst all the criticisms, I must acknowledge that this is a first-of-its-kind gizmo – a screenless, seamless, and sensing AI-powered voice-controlled gadget that does not require connectivity to another smart device to operate. The advent of smartphone technology reduced our dependency on desktop and laptop computers. Likewise, the arrival of the AI Pin technology can greatly reduce our screen time by cutting down our  clinginess to smartphones. No one can tell the future; it is too early to predict as the technology is in its premature state. But just as the first iPhone was released in 2007 and continued to pass through different phases of development to become more sophisticated, the AI Pin is also very capable of this kind of development and growth, especially with the advancement of AI technologies. Are the chances of bigger corporations engulfing Humane and its AI Pin? I can't say for sure. But unapologetically, Humane has the backing and is heavily funded to a ton of  $200 million by A-list companies pushing technology around the globe. Some of these companies include OpenAI, Microsoft, Qualcomm Technologies, TIDAL, T-Mobile, Salesforce, and others. Competitors are sniffing at this technology and taking wild guesses regarding its future – Google, Meta, etc. However, Humane's greatest competitor could be…(your guess is as good as mine), Apple Inc. Apple's fascination with AI makes them a force to reckon with. They are known to have a radical approach that dominates the market and keeps them at the top as a tech giant.  They also play a smart game of acquisitions or competitions. If they can't acquire, they release a strong contender into the market. A pin that has the potential to overshadow the smartphone in our daily lives is not a novel idea that Apple can pass by and ignore. To stay on top of the game, they could watch the pun's prospects in the market and be whipping a checkbook in no time or releasing a more sophisticated version in few years down the line. You can't be too surprised if you hear iPin after a successful acquisition or iClip as a daring competition. (Note: This is solely a prediction from a personal point of view) In all cases, it is not for us to know. Humane could become an unprecedented force leading the technology of AI voice-controlled wearable gadgets and reshaping the way we interact with AI and technology. (P.S: Once Humane becomes a fully registered and public company and releases an upgrade of the AI Pin, I'll be taking up some shares. There is good potential here.) Final Words The world is buzzing with new and newer technologies every day. However, the AI Pin is a pacesetter that proves that it is not another neoteric attempt to make wearable tech a trend but a revolutionary voice-controlled device that will liberate users from the addiction to screens even in a tech-infused world.

Can Humane's AI Pin Survive the Test of Time?

হিউম্যানের এআই পিন কি সময়ের পরীক্ষায় টিকে থাকতে পারে?

Kann der KI-Pin von Humane den Test der Zeit überleben?

¿Puede el pin de IA de Humane sobrevivir la prueba del tiempo?

L'IA Pin de Humane peut-elle survivre à l'épreuve du temps ?

क्या ह्यूमेन का एआई पिन समय की कसौटी पर खरा उतर सकता है?

Humane の AI ピンは時の試練を生き延びることができるでしょうか?

휴메인의 AI 핀은 시간의 시험을 견딜 수 있을까?

O AI Pin da Humane pode sobreviver ao teste do tempo?

Сможет ли ИИ-пин Humane выдержать испытание временем?

Humane'nin AI Pin'i Zaman Testinden Geçebilecek mi?

Pin AI của Humane có thể tồn tại trước thử thách của thời gian không?

Humane 的 AI Pin 能否经受住时间的考验？

Craig Wright And What The Judges  Said About His Claims

ক্রেগ রাইট এবং বিচারকরা তার দাবি সম্পর্কে কি বলেছেন

Craig Wright und was die Richter zu seinen Ansprüchen sagten

Craig Wright y lo que dijeron los jueces sobre sus afirmaciones

Craig Wright et ce que les juges ont dit à propos de ses allégations

क्रेग राइट और न्यायाधीशों ने उनके दावों के बारे में क्या कहा

クレイグ・ライトと彼の主張について裁判官が言ったこと

크레이그 라이트(Craig Wright)와 판사가 그의 주장에 관해 말한 내용

Craig Wright e o que os juízes disseram sobre suas reivindicações

Крейг Райт и что судьи сказали по поводу его претензий

Craig Wright ve Hakimlerin İddiaları Hakkında Ne Söylediği

Craig Wright và những gì các thẩm phán nói về tuyên bố của ông

克雷格·赖特和法官对他的主张的评价

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