Recap Hey guys! If you’re new here, I am running a 6 month long experiment to see if a Large Language Model (like ChatGPT) can be a skilled micro-cap portfolio manager. I give it daily closing data at the end of every trading day and it has full control over its assets. Also, once every week it gets to use Deep Research to completely reevaluate it’s account. Can ChatGPT carve consistent alpha in the dangerous world of micro-cap stocks? Lets find out. Overview The week began neutral on Monday before gaining strong upward momentum through midweek. However, the broad market selloff on Friday heavily effected the chosen tickers, erasing much of the earlier gains. Despite the downturn, ChatGPT’s portfolio still closed slightly positive overall, finishing the week in the green. Performance Graph Current Portfolio Ticker: SPRO Ticker: SPRO Shares: 22 Shares: Buy Price: $2.09 Buy Price: Cost Basis: $45.99 Cost Basis: Stop Loss: $1.78 Stop Loss: Ticker: OKYO Ticker: OKYO Shares: 10 Shares: Buy Price: $2.08 Buy Price: Cost Basis: $20.80 Cost Basis: Stop Loss: $1.75 Stop Loss: Ticker: TLSA Ticker: TLSA Shares: 6 Shares: Buy Price: $1.99 Buy Price: Cost Basis: $11.94 Cost Basis: Stop Loss: $1.78 Stop Loss: Upcoming Orders 1. Sell Order – OKYO 1. Sell Order – OKYO Action: Sell (full position)Ticker: OKYOShares: 10Order Type: LimitLimit Price: $1.95Special Instructions: Limit set near last close (~$1.95). Allows partial fills. Selling 10 shares should fill easily.Rationale: Exiting OKYO to reallocate funds from a now inactive catalyst play to a more active opportunity. Targeting a fair price without urgency to sell below value. Action: Sell (full position) Action: Ticker: OKYO Ticker: Shares: 10 Shares: Order Type: Limit Order Type: Limit Price: $1.95 Limit Price: $1.95 Special Instructions: Limit set near last close (~$1.95). Allows partial fills. Selling 10 shares should fill easily. Special Instructions: Rationale: Exiting OKYO to reallocate funds from a now inactive catalyst play to a more active opportunity. Targeting a fair price without urgency to sell below value. Rationale: 2. Sell Order – SPRO (Partial Trim) 2. Sell Order – SPRO (Partial Trim) Action: Sell (partial position)Ticker: SPROShares: 7 (out of 22 total)Order Type: LimitLimit Price: $2.25Special Instructions: Reduces SPRO from 22 to 15 shares. Limit set slightly below last close (~$2.28) to ensure execution while maintaining fair value.Rationale: Trimming to lock in gains and free approximately $15 for redeployment into MIST. The remaining 15 shares will stay open with the current stop-loss. Action: Sell (partial position) Action: Ticker: SPRO Ticker: Shares: 7 (out of 22 total) Shares: Order Type: Limit Order Type: Limit Price: $2.25 Limit Price: $2.25 Special Instructions: Reduces SPRO from 22 to 15 shares. Limit set slightly below last close (~$2.28) to ensure execution while maintaining fair value. Special Instructions: Rationale: Trimming to lock in gains and free approximately $15 for redeployment into MIST. The remaining 15 shares will stay open with the current stop-loss. Rationale: $15 3. Buy Order – MIST (New Position) 3. Buy Order – MIST (New Position) Action: Buy (initiate position)Ticker: MISTShares: 17Order Type: LimitLimit Price: $2.10Stop Loss: $1.70 (GTC)Special Instructions: Limit placed slightly above last close (~$1.99). Expected cost ≈ $35.70. Stop-loss to activate after purchase (~19% below entry).Rationale: Establishing a new MIST position ahead of its Dec 13 PDUFA catalyst, reallocating capital from OKYO and SPRO. Limit ensures price control while likely ensuring fill. Action: Buy (initiate position) Action: Ticker: MIST Ticker: Shares: 17 Shares: Order Type: Limit Order Type: Limit Price: $2.10 Limit Price: $2.10 Stop Loss: $1.70 (GTC) Stop Loss: $1.70 (GTC) Special Instructions: Limit placed slightly above last close (~$1.99). Expected cost ≈ $35.70. Stop-loss to activate after purchase (~19% below entry). Special Instructions: $35.70 Rationale: Establishing a new MIST position ahead of its Dec 13 PDUFA catalyst, reallocating capital from OKYO and SPRO. Limit ensures price control while likely ensuring fill. Rationale: Dec 13 PDUFA catalyst Portfolio Review Portfolio Review To see the full report: Click Here Click Here Thesis Review Summary Thesis Review Summary By rebalancing the portfolio in Week 16, we have sharpened our focus on high-impact, near-term catalysts while shoring up risk controls. We enter the coming weeks with three distinct biotech bets: Week 16 1. Milestone Pharmaceuticals (MIST) 1. Milestone Pharmaceuticals (MIST) Highest-conviction position | Near-term binary catalyst – FDA decision (Dec 13) Highest-conviction position | Near-term binary catalyst – FDA decision (Dec 13) MIST epitomizes the portfolio’s swing for asymmetric rewards. The December 13 FDA decision for its PSVT nasal spray is a catalyst with the potential to dramatically boost our portfolio’s value if approved. We’ve done the homework: the CRL issues were addressed December 13 FDA decision ainvest.com, and the therapy could fill a genuine unmet need in cardiology (treating rapid heart arrhythmias at home). ainvest.com At a ~$200M valuation, the market is skeptical, but we believe this is a classic case of a beaten-down micro-cap poised for a comeback. Our thesis: If the FDA greenlights etripamil, Milestone’s stock could multiply (analysts suggest a move to the teens per share on approval Our thesis: ainvest.com). That would not only close our performance gap with the S&P, it could put us well ahead. ainvest.com We’ve allocated boldly here (~42% of portfolio) to maximize the benefit if our thesis proves correct – all while being mindful of the downside (a stop is in place, and position size is such that a total loss, while damaging, would not zero out the portfolio). 2. Spero Therapeutics (SPRO) 2. Spero Therapeutics (SPRO) Steady performer | Mid-term catalyst – NDA submission with GSK Steady performer | Mid-term catalyst – NDA submission with GSK SPRO continues to anchor the portfolio with a somewhat lower-risk catalyst on the horizon. Its partnership with GSK and the upcoming NDA submission for its oral antibiotic give it a fundamentally strong foundation GSK NDA submission for its oral antibiotic biospace.com. biospace.com We trimmed the position to fund MIST, but remain confident in SPRO’s value. This is the “slow-burn” catalyst in our basket: the stock may appreciate gradually as regulatory milestones are met (NDA filing acceptance, etc.) and as investors recognize the 2026 approval opportunity. Importantly, SPRO provides diversification: unlike MIST (which is binary in the next 2 months), SPRO’s catalyst is on a longer timeline and its downside is cushioned by its major pharma partner and solid cash runway. Our thesis: By the experiment’s end, we may not see explosive moves, but we expect a positive bias in the stock price as the NDA news comes out. Beyond this experiment, SPRO has all the hallmarks of a multi-bagger (a tiny cap addressing a large need with Big Pharma backing). For now, it remains a core hold, just right-sized. Our thesis: 3. Tiziana Life Sciences (TLSA) 3. Tiziana Life Sciences (TLSA) Innovative wild card | Thematic and momentum play Innovative wild card | Thematic and momentum play TLSA’s intranasal foralumab is pioneering a new route of immunotherapy for neurodegenerative and autoimmune diseases. Our thesis has been that Tiziana’s numerous “irons in the fire” (MS, ALS, Alzheimer’s, etc.) and its novel delivery method could attract increasing investor and possibly partner interest. intranasal foralumab The stock’s year-to-date performance (+200%+) and continued positive updates validate that thesis +200%+ nasdaq.com | tizianalifesciences.com. nasdaq.com tizianalifesciences.com While TLSA won’t have a binary event during our experiment, we expect its strong news flow to continue – acting as a catalyst in its own right by keeping the stock on an upward trajectory. In the next weeks, any additional data or even speculation of a partnership (not uncommon for a company with such a platform) could lift the stock. We’ve kept the position smaller, reflecting its medium-term horizon, but view TLSA as a high-upside, moderate-risk component. It balances the portfolio by not being purely dependent on FDA decisions; it has a pipeline story that could independently create value. high-upside, moderate-risk Our stop-loss will protect us in case momentum reverses, but otherwise we plan to ride the trend. Thesis: Tiziana’s approach could be paradigm-shifting (e.g., an MS therapy that is nasal rather than IV) – that promise should continue to attract investor attention into year-end, especially as micro-caps start to recover sector-wide. Thesis: Summary Summary Our portfolio realignment leaves us with a concentrated yet, we believe, well-considered trio of positions. MIST: Near-term binary catalyst (FDA decision)SPRO: Mid-term catalyst with long-term multi-bagger potential (NDA/approval with GSK support)TLSA: Innovative growth story (multiple trials and steady news flow) MIST: Near-term binary catalyst (FDA decision) MIST: SPRO: Mid-term catalyst with long-term multi-bagger potential (NDA/approval with GSK support) SPRO: TLSA: Innovative growth story (multiple trials and steady news flow) TLSA: All three trade at valuations that, in our analysis, do not fully price in their upside potential. We have effectively increased the portfolio’s “beta” to biotech catalysts – a necessary move given we are currently behind the benchmark ($81.8 vs $105.6 from $100 start) and have limited time to catch up spotlightgrowth.com. “beta” to biotech catalysts $81.8 vs $105.6 from $100 start spotlightgrowth.com This comes with higher risk, but our risk management tools are in place: risk management tools Position sizing (three distinct bets)Stop-loss ordersDiligent monitoring Position sizing (three distinct bets) Stop-loss orders Diligent monitoring This project is purely educational and research-focused. Nothing here should be taken as financial advice. Full disclaimer: Here Here GitHub Page: GitHub Page: To see all past deep research reports and summaries: Here Here Full chats: Here Here Have a question? Check out: Q&A Q&A If you’d like to see the raw logs and full portfolio simulation code: GitHub Page GitHub Page If you have any suggestions or advice, my Gmail is: nathanbsmith.business@gmail.com nathanbsmith.business@gmail.com

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Can ChatGPT Outperform the Market? Week 15

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