Harris vs. Trump: Predicting the Bitcoin Market's Fate Post-Election

With just days until the outcome of the U.S. presidential race, Bitcoin enthusiasts across the world are wondering how a win for either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will impact the cryptocurrency market's long-term fortunes.

With Bitcoin surging to a new all-time high against several global currencies in the past few days - and with its U.S dollar valuation only missing an ATH by a mere $175 - the general outlook would appear to be positive.

Some have speculated that the future of Bitcoin is assured regardless of which candidate assumes the presidency, and that neither Trump nor Harris will stem the rise of a digital currency that has seen its value increase by 142,538,880.54% in the past 14 years, as per data from CoinMarketCap.

Let’s take a look at how Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have been addressing the topic of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in the lead-up to the election, and examine what a win for either candidate could mean for the future of the crypto market in general.

Trump and Harris Come Round to Bitcoin?

In recent years both Trump and Harris have expressed caution around the topic of cryptocurrencies. Trump initially claimed Bitcoin could eat into the U.S dollar’s dominance around the globe and drew attention to its use in illicit and illegal activities. Harris, meanwhile, appeared hesitant to grapple with the issue of digital currencies and remained fairly tight-lipped on the subject until recently.

In the run-up to the election, however, both candidates have changed their views on the topic, with Trump in particular appearing to become an eager adoptee of the use of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Donald Trump’s campaign has been fuelled in part by digital currencies after he began accepting donations in the form of Bitcoin, Ether, Dogecoin, and Solana, and other cryptocurrencies.

Indeed, Donald Trump’s perception as the most pro-crypto candidate of the two has been helped by comments made in the past week in which Trump floated the possibility of removing the imposition of capital gains tax on Bitcoin usage. Trump told podcaster Joe Rogan:

“They have them paying tax on crypto and I don't think that's right. Bitcoin is money and you have to pay capital gains tax if you use it to buy a coffee? I was talking with a friend and he said 'it really shouldn't be taxed' and I agree. Maybe we get rid of taxes on crypto and replace it with tariffs,” said Trump.

Trump declared that only cryptocurrencies made in the USA should be subject to the removal of tax and that coins created in other countries - particularly China - should still have tariffs imposed.

Kamala Harris has not expressed such clear support for the cryptocurrency market, however she has begun to reach out to major cryptocurrency firms like Coinbase and Ripple, and has called for greater regulatory oversight of the crypto market.

While Harris’ comments have been regarded as less positive than Trump’s, they do suggest she may be willing to work alongside the industry to clear up regulatory uncertainties and ensure a safer environment for investors - a stance that still appears somewhat pro-crypto.

How a Trump Win Could Affect Bitcoin

The general perception is that a win for Trump is a win for Bitcoin. Indeed, some observers claim that Bitcoin’s resurgence over the course of the past few months is an indicator that Trump has already won.
MannaBitcoin and HandsFreeBTC founder, Adam Simecka, on X.

The value of BTC increased by 21% in the past 30 days, and 37% in the past three months, and some expect it to record a new all-time high against the U.S dollar regardless of the outcome of the U.S election.

That said, a Trump win would send strong signals to cryptocurrency investors worldwide and would spur both institutional and retail adoption, facilitating growth for Bitcoin and DeFi initiatives through a relaxation of both taxation and regulation.

Private wealth management firm, Bernstein, told CNBC that a win for Trump could see the value of Bitcoin top $80,000.

Youwei Yang, chief economist at Bit Mining, was even more optimistic, and recently forecasted a potential Bitcoin price of $135,000 if Trump assumes the presidency. According to Yang, a Harris win would still see Bitcoin reach a price of $120,000.

Trump has also vowed to make the U.S the world leader in Bitcoin mining and has even floated the idea of the U.S government holding Bitcoin as a reserve currency.

How a Harris Win Could Affect Bitcoin

Kamala Harris’ recent focus on regulatory oversight suggests that despite her apparent caution, she recognises that crypto is here to stay. Harris told a gathering of fundraisers in September:

“We will encourage innovative technologies like AI and digital assets while protecting our consumers and investors,” said Harris, as reported by Bloomberg.

While Harris hasn’t voiced any decidedly anti-crypto opinions, the general perception is that a Harris win would mean slower growth for Bitcoin in the short-term as the focus shifts towards stronger regulation.

The market’s reaction to a Harris win could be highly reflexive, and could result in a sharp dip in the value of Bitcoin in the short-term.

Such a sharp dip could send reverberations throughout the market, potentially creating a large-scale selloff where traders collectively seek to drop a rapidly declining asset, before buying in again when they perceive the dip to be over.

Bitcoin’s Future

With the election result just days away and Bitcoin’s immediate future potentially in the balance, Donald Trump made reference to Bitcoin’s past. On Oct. 31, Trump wrote on X:

“I would like to wish our great Bitcoiners a Happy 16th Anniversary of Satoshi’s White Paper. We will end Kamala’s war on crypto, & Bitcoin will be MADE IN THE USA! VOTE TRUMP!” wrote Trump, referencing the 16th anniversary of the publication of the Bitcoin whitepaper.

Rarely in history have the fortunes of an entire asset-class been so dependent on the outcome of a presidential race, and the furore surrounding Bitcoin in the run-up to the election is testament to how deeply ingrained the idea of autonomous digital currency is in the minds of voters.

Bitcoiners across the globe will be eagerly awaiting the outcome of the election in the next week. While neither outcome may necessarily spell doom for Bitcoin’s long-term future, the impact of either candidate assuming the presidency is certain to produce fireworks for the cryptocurrency market in the short-term.