David O.

@davidolarinoye

When is the next bitcoin bull run?

June 19th 2018

A reflection for the bulls in a bear market

Photo by Andre Francois on Unsplash

I love the fact that certain concepts can be expressed clearly in one word. I like the word ‘perspective’ so much. Perspective is so important in today’s world, especially when we consider the new trend of decentralization. Every decision is based on mental judgment and mental judgment is based on perspective. Everyone claims to be right and their claim is based on information. The information doesn’t have to be false for the judgment to be wrong. Bitcoin is below $7k, it’s time to make fundamentalists of speculators.

When bitcoin went down to $6k earlier in the year and then got back to $8k, many thought they had seen the worst. But then, it struggled to stay over $9k. And as of writing, it’s back on the $6k level. This level seems unfair to traders (or speculators) who bought in at $12k (and above). Of course, I got in too during those periods but it wasn’t fomo. I was going to get in during that time regardless of the price (just as I am still going in right now at the $6k range). Cryptocurrency, from my perspective, remains a thing of the future. Yes, we are already seeing the reality but the development and full adoption will be slower than many first thought.

In the calmness and quietness that comes with the bear market, I decided to search some insights and look through perspectives I have not paid attention to. This is not the first bear market in crypto. What happened during the previous bear markets and what was the market trend?

It began in November 2013. Bitcoin price was about $1.2k. An all time high at that time. And then the plunge began. First the Mt. Gox issue started as a rumour, but then it became confirmed and a reality. The price of bitcoin sank to $600. And then continued into the abyss in the following weeks and months. At one point, it was as low as $110. Think about it; something that was once worth $1,200 now became $110. That’s more than a 90% drop! How bad has it gotten in 2018? $20k at all time high to $6k (which is the lowest so far, I believe). That is still a drop of 70%. Am I saying you should be grateful that things are not worse? No! I am just giving you some perspectives here.

The other point that really got my attention was the period of time the value of bitcoin stayed below it’s all time high after the $1,200 at November 2013. Throughout 2014, it was gloomy. There was no much uptick in 2015. Bitcoin started gathering momentum again in 2016. The all time high of 2013 was reached again in March of 2017. That is 4 good years. Of course, the price roamed as high as $750 during this 4 year period, but it was not convincingly over that price. So, if you bought the top in November 2013, you had to wait till March 2017 to break even.

If we mirror this event of November 2013 to March 2017 over what the market is experiencing in 2018, you will get a classical perspective to this bear market. Yes, the market is definitely larger than it was 4–5 years ago, but the fundamentals remain the same. I don’t think the drop will be up to 90% (I think 70% is fair enough) but it could drop lower. One thing I am certain of is that this bear market is not ending anytime soon. If it took about 40 months to get back to the all time high in the previous bear market, it might take at least a quarter of that for this market to get back at the level we all cheered about. Personally, I have set my mind to January 2019. Not necessarily to see bitcoin at $20k, but to see the bulls take over fully. It could take longer, but this bear market shouldn’t last up to 20 months.

This is the time for the hype to die down and real information to gain more ground. There is blood on the streets, so it is definitely a good time to buy. However, it matters what you buy. I am definitely not selling any serious stakes in my crypto assets for now. And I can hold on for as long as I want. That is the real definition of ‘money you can afford to lose’. In the real sense of it, nobody has money they want to throw away. But if you have to sell in 6 months or less, you are not playing smart.

The key to winning in trading and investing is to buy low and sell high. If you can’t wait for forever, you will buy high and sell low. The last time it was 4 years, let’s hope it’s below 2 years (or much less) before $20k again. Just to keep in perspective, we are still 4 months in on this bear market. Brace up!

P.S. You can connect with me on Twitter here

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