People often say altseason is when altcoins suddenly start outperforming Bitcoin. But what’s really behind it? Is it just an illusion of easy "x10s" or a pattern that can be calculated? Many dream: *“What if XRP hits $20 tomorrow, and ETH soars to $10,000?” Instead of wishful thinking — let’s break down what realistic and achievable targets we can set for top altcoins if altseason really begins. if altseason really begins Editor’s note: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are speculative, complex, and involve high risks. This can mean high prices volatility and potential loss of your initial investment. You should consider your financial situation, investment purposes, and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The HackerNoon editorial team has only verified the story for grammatical accuracy and does not endorse or guarantee the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of the information stated in this article. #DYOR Editor’s note: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are speculative, complex, and involve high risks. This can mean high prices volatility and potential loss of your initial investment. You should consider your financial situation, investment purposes, and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The HackerNoon editorial team has only verified the story for grammatical accuracy and does not endorse or guarantee the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of the information stated in this article. #DYOR Editor’s note: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are speculative, complex, and involve high risks. This can mean high prices volatility and potential loss of your initial investment. You should consider your financial situation, investment purposes, and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The HackerNoon editorial team has only verified the story for grammatical accuracy and does not endorse or guarantee the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of the information stated in this article. #DYOR Editor’s note: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are speculative, complex, and involve high risks. This can mean high prices volatility and potential loss of your initial investment. You should consider your financial situation, investment purposes, and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The HackerNoon editorial team has only verified the story for grammatical accuracy and does not endorse or guarantee the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of the information stated in this article. #DYOR Why Are We Waiting for Altseason? Because a drop in Bitcoin dominance is a traditional signal of capital flowing into altcoins. Right now, BTC dominance is around 64% — historically, in altseasons, it has fallen to 40% or lower. drop in Bitcoin dominance 64% 40% or lower The logic is simple: the lower Bitcoin's market share, the more liquidity is spread across other coins. Sounds great, but remember — this is not a guarantee, just a historical pattern that may or may not repeat. Cycles evolve, and today, institutional investors are entering Bitcoin — they prefer stability over risk. Source of dominance data: TradingView BTCD Chart Source of dominance data: TradingView BTCD Chart Source of dominance data: TradingView BTCD Chart My Approach to Setting Altcoin Targets Let’s focus on numbers — not fairy tales about "x10" or going “to the moon.” Total crypto market cap: ~$3.18 trillion
Bitcoin dominance: 64%
Altcoins: 36%
Bitcoin market cap: $2.035 trillion
Altcoin market cap: $1.145 trillion Total crypto market cap: ~$3.18 trillion Total crypto market cap Bitcoin dominance: 64% Bitcoin dominance Altcoins: 36% Altcoins Bitcoin market cap: $2.035 trillion Bitcoin market cap Altcoin market cap: $1.145 trillion Altcoin market cap Let’s Build a Standard Scenario If Bitcoin's dominance drops to 40%, and its price stays the same (around $108,019 with a $2.05T cap), then: 40% stays the same New total crypto market cap would be: $5.375 trillion
Altcoin market cap would reach: $3.225 trillion
Net inflow into altcoins: + $2.08 trillion New total crypto market cap would be: $5.375 trillion New total crypto market cap Altcoin market cap would reach: $3.225 trillion Altcoin market cap $3.225 trillion Net inflow into altcoins: + $2.08 trillion Net inflow into altcoins + $2.08 trillion How Would This Capital Be Distributed? Let’s take the top 7 altcoins — ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, TRON, ADA. They currently represent about 52.3% of the altcoin market. If proportions hold, they’d receive around $1.08 trillion of the new capital. ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, TRON, ADA about 52.3% $1.08 trillion What Does This Mean? Coin

Current Market Cap ($)

Share of Alt Market (%)

Projected Cap ($)



ETH

$310.66B

23.11%

$560.7B (+$250B)



XRP

$128.69B

9.99%

$236.7B (+$108B)



BNB

$92.42B

7.17%

$169.4B (+$77B)



SOL

$81.41B

6.12%

$147.4B (+$66B)



DOGE

$27.72B

2.08%

$50.2B (+$22.5B)



TRON

$26.5B

2.01%

$48.2B (+$21.7B)



ADA

$23.48B

1.84%

$43.4B (+$19.9B) Coin

Current Market Cap ($)

Share of Alt Market (%)

Projected Cap ($)



ETH

$310.66B

23.11%

$560.7B (+$250B)



XRP

$128.69B

9.99%

$236.7B (+$108B)



BNB

$92.42B

7.17%

$169.4B (+$77B)



SOL

$81.41B

6.12%

$147.4B (+$66B)



DOGE

$27.72B

2.08%

$50.2B (+$22.5B)



TRON

$26.5B

2.01%

$48.2B (+$21.7B)



ADA

$23.48B

1.84%

$43.4B (+$19.9B) Coin

Current Market Cap ($)

Share of Alt Market (%)

Projected Cap ($) Coin Coin Current Market Cap ($) Current Market Cap ($) Share of Alt Market (%) Share of Alt Market (%) Projected Cap ($) Projected Cap ($) ETH

$310.66B

23.11%

$560.7B (+$250B) ETH ETH $310.66B $310.66B 23.11% 23.11% $560.7B (+$250B) $560.7B (+$250B) XRP

$128.69B

9.99%

$236.7B (+$108B) XRP XRP $128.69B $128.69B 9.99% 9.99% $236.7B (+$108B) $236.7B (+$108B) BNB

$92.42B

7.17%

$169.4B (+$77B) BNB BNB $92.42B $92.42B 7.17% 7.17% $169.4B (+$77B) $169.4B (+$77B) SOL

$81.41B

6.12%

$147.4B (+$66B) SOL SOL $81.41B $81.41B 6.12% 6.12% $147.4B (+$66B) $147.4B (+$66B) DOGE

$27.72B

2.08%

$50.2B (+$22.5B) DOGE DOGE $27.72B $27.72B 2.08% 2.08% $50.2B (+$22.5B) $50.2B (+$22.5B) TRON

$26.5B

2.01%

$48.2B (+$21.7B) TRON TRON $26.5B $26.5B 2.01% 2.01% $48.2B (+$21.7B) $48.2B (+$21.7B) ADA

$23.48B

1.84%

$43.4B (+$19.9B) ADA ADA $23.48B $23.48B 1.84% 1.84% $43.4B (+$19.9B) $43.4B (+$19.9B) Based on These Inflows, What Price Growth Can We Expect? Coin

Current Price ($)

Projected Price ($)



ETH

$2,550

$4,602



XRP

$2.25

$4.13



BNB

$650

$1,191



SOL

$155

$280.5



DOGE

$0.19

$0.344



TRON

$0.28

$0.509



ADA

$0.67

$1.24 Coin

Current Price ($)

Projected Price ($)



ETH

$2,550

$4,602



XRP

$2.25

$4.13



BNB

$650

$1,191



SOL

$155

$280.5



DOGE

$0.19

$0.344



TRON

$0.28

$0.509



ADA

$0.67

$1.24 Coin

Current Price ($)

Projected Price ($) Coin Coin Current Price ($) Current Price ($) Projected Price ($) Projected Price ($) ETH

$2,550

$4,602 ETH ETH $2,550 $2,550 $4,602 $4,602 XRP

$2.25

$4.13 XRP XRP $2.25 $2.25 $4.13 $4.13 BNB

$650

$1,191 BNB BNB $650 $650 $1,191 $1,191 SOL

$155

$280.5 SOL SOL $155 $155 $280.5 $280.5 DOGE

$0.19

$0.344 DOGE DOGE $0.19 $0.19 $0.344 $0.344 TRON

$0.28

$0.509 TRON TRON $0.28 $0.28 $0.509 $0.509 ADA

$0.67

$1.24 ADA ADA $0.67 $0.67 $1.24 $1.24 But What About “XRP at $20” and Other Myths? Seriously? For XRP to go from $2.25 to $20 (a 9x), its market cap would need to exceed $1 trillion. That’s roughly the entire altcoin market today.It would require either massive new money or huge capital redistribution. XRP to go from $2.25 to $20 exceed $1 trillion entire altcoin market massive new money huge capital redistribution Yes, it's possible — but not guaranteed, and certainly not any time soon. possible A Bit of Realism: March 2024 vs. Current Projections Many investors entered the market in March 2024 hoping for an imminent altseason. Let’s compare the average prices in March with the targets from my forecast. March 2024 average prices in March targets This shows what kind of realistic gains early investors might expect — if these targets are achieved. realistic gains if Coin

Avg. Price (Mar 2024)

Forecasted Price

Potential Growth (x)

Profit Potential



ETH

~$3,647.86

$4,602

~1.26x

Modest growth



XRP

~$0.60

$4.13

~6.88x

Huge, but ambitious



BNB

~$500–550

$1,191

~2.27x

Solid, not extreme



SOL

~$165.64

$280.5

~1.69x

Noticeable growth



DOGE

~$0.15

$0.344

~2.29x

Decent growth



TRON

~$0.12

$0.509

~4.24x

Very strong, but bold



ADA

~$0.65

$1.24

~1.91x

Healthy double Coin

Avg. Price (Mar 2024)

Forecasted Price

Potential Growth (x)

Profit Potential



ETH

~$3,647.86

$4,602

~1.26x

Modest growth



XRP

~$0.60

$4.13

~6.88x

Huge, but ambitious



BNB

~$500–550

$1,191

~2.27x

Solid, not extreme



SOL

~$165.64

$280.5

~1.69x

Noticeable growth



DOGE

~$0.15

$0.344

~2.29x

Decent growth



TRON

~$0.12

$0.509

~4.24x

Very strong, but bold



ADA

~$0.65

$1.24

~1.91x

Healthy double Coin

Avg. Price (Mar 2024)

Forecasted Price

Potential Growth (x)

Profit Potential Coin Coin Avg. Price (Mar 2024) Avg. Price (Mar 2024) Forecasted Price Forecasted Price Potential Growth (x) Potential Growth (x) Profit Potential Profit Potential ETH

~$3,647.86

$4,602

~1.26x

Modest growth ETH ETH ~$3,647.86 ~$3,647.86 $4,602 $4,602 ~1.26x ~1.26x Modest growth Modest growth XRP

~$0.60

$4.13

~6.88x

Huge, but ambitious XRP XRP ~$0.60 ~$0.60 $4.13 $4.13 ~6.88x ~6.88x Huge, but ambitious Huge, but ambitious BNB

~$500–550

$1,191

~2.27x

Solid, not extreme BNB BNB ~$500–550 ~$500–550 $1,191 $1,191 ~2.27x ~2.27x Solid, not extreme Solid, not extreme SOL

~$165.64

$280.5

~1.69x

Noticeable growth SOL SOL ~$165.64 ~$165.64 $280.5 $280.5 ~1.69x ~1.69x Noticeable growth Noticeable growth DOGE

~$0.15

$0.344

~2.29x

Decent growth DOGE DOGE ~$0.15 ~$0.15 $0.344 $0.344 ~2.29x ~2.29x Decent growth Decent growth TRON

~$0.12

$0.509

~4.24x

Very strong, but bold TRON TRON ~$0.12 ~$0.12 $0.509 $0.509 ~4.24x ~4.24x Very strong, but bold Very strong, but bold ADA

~$0.65

$1.24

~1.91x

Healthy double ADA ADA ~$0.65 ~$0.65 $1.24 $1.24 ~1.91x ~1.91x Healthy double Healthy double Note: March price data is approximate and may vary slightly depending on the source. Note: March price data is approximate and may vary slightly depending on the source. Note: March price data is approximate and may vary slightly depending on the source. Altseason ≠ Guaranteed "X Gains" March 2024 was a mass-entry point for many traders hoping for an altcoin explosion.But looking at the actual numbers, reality is much more modest. March 2024 much more modest. Even with a powerful altseason, where BTC dominance falls to 40% and $2T flows into alts, most top coins will grow only 1.5x–2.5x from their March prices. powerful altseason most top coins will grow only 1.5x–2.5x Example Gains



ETH — ~1.26x



SOL, ADA, BNB, DOGE — 1.6x–2.3x



TRON, XRP — only true "x" potential (4x–7x) Example Gains



ETH — ~1.26x



SOL, ADA, BNB, DOGE — 1.6x–2.3x



TRON, XRP — only true "x" potential (4x–7x) Example Gains Example Gains Example Gains ETH — ~1.26x ETH — ~1.26x ETH — ~1.26x SOL, ADA, BNB, DOGE — 1.6x–2.3x SOL, ADA, BNB, DOGE — 1.6x–2.3x SOL, ADA, BNB, DOGE — 1.6x–2.3x TRON, XRP — only true "x" potential (4x–7x) TRON, XRP — only true "x" potential (4x–7x) TRON, XRP — only true "x" potential (4x–7x) ❗What Does This Mean? If you bought in March 2024 and expect a 5x on ETH or 10x on ADA — even with strong market conditions, the chances are near zero. March 2024 5x on ETH 10x on ADA near zero In many cases, investors won’t even double their capital, even if altseason plays out well. won’t even double their capital A Dose of Reality & My Perspective The cycles where BTC dominance drops 20+% happen once every 4–5 years — and may not repeat in the same way. Today, Bitcoin has become more stable and institutionalized. once every 4–5 years may not repeat Altseason is not a magic button to instantly 5x your portfolio.It’s a partial and irregular capital shift. Altseason is not a magic button partial and irregular capital shift. What Should You Do When BTC Dominance Drops by 5–10%? Don’t panic or chase hype
Come back to these numbers — track where liquidity is actually going
Do your own research — which alts are leading, which are lagging
Analyze BTC dominance room to fall further Don’t panic or chase hype Don’t panic or chase hype Come back to these numbers — track where liquidity is actually going Come back to these numbers Do your own research — which alts are leading, which are lagging Do your own research Analyze BTC dominance room to fall further Analyze BTC dominance room to fall further This isn’t a guessing game — it’s working with facts and cycles. Final Takeaway Altseason isn’t a myth — but it’s not magic either. Altseason isn’t a myth — but it’s not magic either. A drop in BTC dominance to 40% could bring ~$2T into altcoins
Top 7 alts may realistically grow ~2x, both from current and March levels
Don’t count on wild x10s — those are dreams, not data
XRP at $20? Maybe someday — but not without extreme conditions
Historical cycles show true capital rotation is rare and temporary A drop in BTC dominance to 40% could bring ~$2T into altcoins ~$2T Top 7 alts may realistically grow ~2x, both from current and March levels ~2x Don’t count on wild x10s — those are dreams, not data XRP at $20? Maybe someday — but not without extreme conditions Historical cycles show true capital rotation is rare and temporary true capital rotation is rare and temporary Invest rationally, not emotionally.If you bought altcoins at 2021 highs, don’t expect miracles.Even a strong altseason might not deliver "life-changing" profits. rationally might not deliver "life-changing" profits If you want crypto to work for you — stop believing in fairy tales and start looking at real numbers.With that mindset, you won’t get left behind when the market turns. for stop believing in fairy tales and start looking at real numbers

This story contains new, firsthand information uncovered by the writer.

The writer is smart, but don't just like, take their word for it. #DoYourOwnResearch before making any investment decisions or decisions regarding your health or security. (Do not regard any of this content as professional investment advice, or health advice)

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