The Ongoing Cable Catastrophe I though I was not going to write on this again, but somehow I am always dragged into it. In my previous analysis from August 2024, I explored the vulnerability of Tonga's fiber optic submarine cable infrastructure, proposing satellite broadband as a more resilient connectivity solution. Recent events have only reinforced that assessment. As reported on Matangi Tonga, Tonga's domestic fiber-optic submarine cable suffered another outage following a series of strong earthquakes, including a 6.8 magnitude quake centered in the Ha'apai group. This marks the fourth such incident from 2019 to 2024, with a staggering 80% on average historical frequency likelihood of a cable severance recurring. The persistent disruptions highlight the fundamental challenges of maintaining submarine cable infrastructure in Tonga's seismically and volcanically active maritime environment. Despite significant repair investments, the failure pattern remains unchanged. The Ministerial Meeting: Unveiling Hard Truths Today, I was invited to a pivotal meeting with the Ministry of Public Enterprises concerning Tonga Cable Ltd's second international submarine fiber optic cable project, a venture that promises connectivity but raises more questions than answers. The Numbers Game The proposed project comes with a hefty price tag of approximately 80 million pa'anga, co-funded by Australia and New Zealand. An additional annual overhead of 100,000 (currency unconfirmed) hints at the broader economic complexities of maintaining such infrastructure. The Inconvenient Truths Nothing in telecommunications comes without hidden costs. Beyond the headline figures, we're looking at ongoing expenses for: Power utility bills Cooling systems Backup infrastructure After sales equipment maintenance Marine cable maintenance The Real Winners and Losers Let's strip away the diplomatic veneer and examine who truly benefits from this infrastructure project. The Winners Contractors: Primary beneficiaries securing lucrative installation and maintenance contracts Legal Firms: Drafting complex agreements and navigating international funding mechanisms Consulting Agencies: Generating reports and providing "expert" recommendations The Losers New Zealand and Australian Taxpayers: Funding a questionable long-term infrastructure project Tongan Citizens: Bearing future financial burdens of maintenance and replacement Future Generations: Inheriting an increasingly obsolete technological solution The Satellite Disruption While governments debate cable infrastructure, a quiet revolution is unfolding through low-orbit satellite initiatives. My personal experience speaks volumes: There could be more than 500 Starlink kits already deployed across island communities, and counting Continuous growth in satellite internet adoption Rapidly improving technology and decreasing costs The Utilization Myth The proposed cable project claims to address connectivity needs, but let's dissect the actual utilization: Majority of internet traffic comprises social media platforms Facebook, TikTok, and Instagram dominate bandwidth consumption An 80-million pa'anga cable to essentially support and resilience for social media scrolling? Probability and Resilience Calculating the probabilities reveals a stark reality: 80% chance of cable cuts based on historical data 55.07% probability of at least one cut in a given year (using Poisson method) Proposed solution connects only Vava'u when both the international cable to Fiji and domestic cable to Ha'apai and Vava'u are cut, leaving most islands in the dark. A Human-Centric Approach When a consultant remarked, "It's about the country," I responded with what I believe is the fundamental truth: "It's about the people. There is no country without its people." The Long-Term Vision The current agreement spans 15 years. But let's be realistic, technology evolves rapidly. By the time this cable reaches its projected lifespan, it will likely be technologically obsolete. The critical question remains i.e. Will we have another 80 million pa'anga to replace not just one, but potentially multiple cables in the future? Satellite: The Optimal Solution Satellite broadband presents the most promising connectivity solution for Tonga: Comprehensive coverage across the archipelago Resilient to environmental risks Rapidly advancing technology Significantly lower long-term costs Conclusion: A Hybrid Future Tonga needs a hybrid connectivity solution. A strategic mix of submarine cables and satellite technology is the only way to ensure robust, reliable internet access for all our islands. Connectivity is not a luxury, it's a lifeline for our communities, our businesses, and our future. The question remains, will this new cable make a difference? Will it make Internet cheaper to all citizens? Will it make a difference to our daily lives? The Ongoing Cable Catastrophe I though I was not going to write on this again, but somehow I am always dragged into it. In my previous analysis from August 2024, I explored the vulnerability of Tonga's fiber optic submarine cable infrastructure, proposing satellite broadband as a more resilient connectivity solution. Recent events have only reinforced that assessment. As reported on Matangi Tonga, Tonga's domestic fiber-optic submarine cable suffered another outage following a series of strong earthquakes, including a 6.8 magnitude quake centered in the Ha'apai group. This marks the fourth such incident from 2019 to 2024, with a staggering 80% on average historical frequency likelihood of a cable severance recurring. The persistent disruptions highlight the fundamental challenges of maintaining submarine cable infrastructure in Tonga's seismically and volcanically active maritime environment. Despite significant repair investments, the failure pattern remains unchanged. The Ministerial Meeting: Unveiling Hard Truths Today, I was invited to a pivotal meeting with the Ministry of Public Enterprises concerning Tonga Cable Ltd's second international submarine fiber optic cable project, a venture that promises connectivity but raises more questions than answers. The Numbers Game The proposed project comes with a hefty price tag of approximately 80 million pa'anga, co-funded by Australia and New Zealand. An additional annual overhead of 100,000 (currency unconfirmed) hints at the broader economic complexities of maintaining such infrastructure. The Inconvenient Truths Nothing in telecommunications comes without hidden costs. Beyond the headline figures, we're looking at ongoing expenses for: Power utility bills Cooling systems Backup infrastructure After sales equipment maintenance Marine cable maintenance Power utility bills Cooling systems Backup infrastructure After sales equipment maintenance Marine cable maintenance The Real Winners and Losers Let's strip away the diplomatic veneer and examine who truly benefits from this infrastructure project. The Winners Contractors: Primary beneficiaries securing lucrative installation and maintenance contracts Legal Firms: Drafting complex agreements and navigating international funding mechanisms Consulting Agencies: Generating reports and providing "expert" recommendations Contractors : Primary beneficiaries securing lucrative installation and maintenance contracts Contractors Legal Firms : Drafting complex agreements and navigating international funding mechanisms Legal Firms Consulting Agencies : Generating reports and providing "expert" recommendations Consulting Agencies The Losers New Zealand and Australian Taxpayers: Funding a questionable long-term infrastructure project Tongan Citizens: Bearing future financial burdens of maintenance and replacement Future Generations: Inheriting an increasingly obsolete technological solution New Zealand and Australian Taxpayers : Funding a questionable long-term infrastructure project New Zealand and Australian Taxpayers Tongan Citizens : Bearing future financial burdens of maintenance and replacement Tongan Citizens Future Generations : Inheriting an increasingly obsolete technological solution Future Generations The Satellite Disruption While governments debate cable infrastructure, a quiet revolution is unfolding through low-orbit satellite initiatives. My personal experience speaks volumes: There could be more than 500 Starlink kits already deployed across island communities, and counting Continuous growth in satellite internet adoption Rapidly improving technology and decreasing costs There could be more than 500 Starlink kits already deployed across island communities, and counting Continuous growth in satellite internet adoption Rapidly improving technology and decreasing costs The Utilization Myth The proposed cable project claims to address connectivity needs, but let's dissect the actual utilization: Majority of internet traffic comprises social media platforms Facebook, TikTok, and Instagram dominate bandwidth consumption An 80-million pa'anga cable to essentially support and resilience for social media scrolling? Majority of internet traffic comprises social media platforms Facebook, TikTok, and Instagram dominate bandwidth consumption An 80-million pa'anga cable to essentially support and resilience for social media scrolling? Probability and Resilience Calculating the probabilities reveals a stark reality: 80% chance of cable cuts based on historical data 55.07% probability of at least one cut in a given year (using Poisson method) Proposed solution connects only Vava'u when both the international cable to Fiji and domestic cable to Ha'apai and Vava'u are cut, leaving most islands in the dark. 80% chance of cable cuts based on historical data 55.07% probability of at least one cut in a given year (using Poisson method) Proposed solution connects only Vava'u when both the international cable to Fiji and domestic cable to Ha'apai and Vava'u are cut, leaving most islands in the dark. A Human-Centric Approach When a consultant remarked, "It's about the country," I responded with what I believe is the fundamental truth: "It's about the people. There is no country without its people." The Long-Term Vision The current agreement spans 15 years. But let's be realistic, technology evolves rapidly. By the time this cable reaches its projected lifespan, it will likely be technologically obsolete. The critical question remains i.e. Will we have another 80 million pa'anga to replace not just one, but potentially multiple cables in the future? Satellite: The Optimal Solution Satellite broadband presents the most promising connectivity solution for Tonga: Comprehensive coverage across the archipelago Resilient to environmental risks Rapidly advancing technology Significantly lower long-term costs Comprehensive coverage across the archipelago Resilient to environmental risks Rapidly advancing technology Significantly lower long-term costs Conclusion: A Hybrid Future Tonga needs a hybrid connectivity solution. A strategic mix of submarine cables and satellite technology is the only way to ensure robust, reliable internet access for all our islands. Connectivity is not a luxury, it's a lifeline for our communities, our businesses, and our future. The question remains, will this new cable make a difference? Will it make Internet cheaper to all citizens? Will it make a difference to our daily lives?
