To Google or Not to Google: What the Future Has In Store for Search

In the future, "to Google" may become outdated in light of breakthrough changes anticipating search engines in the months to come. The question is – how far away is this future?

Dominated by Google with its 92% market share, the search engine market is expected to encounter a significant shift in terms of its use cases, features, and monetization. Generative AI and ChatGPT, in particular, will play a pivotal role in creating this shift. That's clear to everyone now. However, there's one more potential game-changer for the industry. It's TikTok – a notorious social media that wasn't even taken seriously and deemed just a Gen Z gimmick a couple of years ago.

Social platforms are already actively solicited for the online search. As for ChatGPT, many experts believe it's just a matter of time before it goes mainstream and changes how we search for information today. And Google is well aware of all the threats and challenges that lie in store for it.

So, how can a combination of generative AI and social media like TikTok undermine Google's long-standing monopoly? As Google joins AI wars, does it stand a chance to continue its domination?

I couldn't resist the temptation to ask these questions to ChatGPT. It replied instantly with the following:

"The answer is yet to be seen. However, an increasing number of companies are turning to generative AI and social media platforms to bypass Google's monopoly."

It couldn't be better for starters, could it? However, as I clicked on compose more, the chatbot started generating utter nonsense – irrelevant to what I originally asked.

So, I had no choice but to resort to a traditional Google search to find my answers.

How TikTok and ChatGPT transform user search behavior

A modern user, accustomed to having instant access to the information they need, is no longer interested in a three-step sequence of actions for online search: inquiry – a list of links to rake through and study – answer.

The user wants to skip step #2 and receive an answer immediately after placing a request. 

Google does offer ready-made answers in the search results: as early as 2016, the company introduced Featured Snippets – blocks with ready-made answers from the most relevant sources. However, today's Google search is also inundated with ads that repulse and irritate users, especially the younger generation that tries to steer clear of such a search model and is actively looking for new ways of obtaining information.

The first real alternative to traditional Google search was YouTube. However, the inherent video content of the service was only suitable for some occasions. Plus, you need a Pro account to enjoy ad-free video search results. This option may not be affordable to users from developing countries. That's where TikTok comes in handy.

With its good combination of short videos, text, and music, this social platform offers a new model of search – quick content exploration.

TikTok, a popular app for entertainment and content creation among generation Z and young adults, has yet to turn into a popular news source as was once intended. However, the app, known for its perfect recommendation algorithm that best matches user interests and needs, has started to be widely used for search.

According to Google's internal data, nearly 40% of Gen Z prefers searching on TikTok and Instagram over Google Search and Maps. Google's senior VP has confirmed that "TikTok's format is changing the way young people conduct internet searches."

TikTok is powered by a robust AI algorithm that personalizes videos based on user engagement with the content. Thanks to this, users can quickly find information that precisely matches their tastes and preferences. Another advantage of choosing TikTok as a search tool is the subjectively higher level of trust in its "human-generated" search results.

TikTok's explosive rise as a content discovery tool is part of an extensive transformation of the online search landscape. Users increasingly turn to other online search services despite Google's multi-year hegemony. For example, they use Amazon to find products, Instagram to find local businesses, and TikTok to quickly get answers to practical questions.

Moreover, many users find it more convenient and entertaining to get search results from TikTok rather than from traditional engines.

Additional reasons why TikTok is gaining steam as a new search engine are:

• The clip thinking phenomenon.
• Our proneness to visual content perception.
• The habit of quick access to information.

Modern users want to instantly receive answers to their queries without browsing third-party sites. 

The emergence of ChatGPT led many experts to call it a threat to Google's search monopoly. Like TikTok, generative AI can provide instant, ready-made answers. However, unlike TikTok, it can provide detailed and well-reasoned answers without making users interact with content. And thanks to the dialogue mode, the search result can be clarified or elaborated with minimal user effort. "Search with frictionless experience" - this is how Bloomberg analyst Parmy Olson explains the main advantage of ChatGPT, calling it the "holy grail" for modern users who choose fast and easy-to-use services.

The absence of advertising links is another advantage of ChatGPT. I believe, though,

it's just a matter of time before ads penetrate the generative AI space, as it happened with traditional search engines and social media.

However, ChatGPT definitely has its own drawbacks as a search platform. 

First and foremost, ChatGPT-generated answers don't contain any sources, so it can be challenging to verify if they're truthful or not. OpenAI is already working on a WebGPT system that can provide more accurate answers by backing them up with source links. The combination of ChatGPT and WebGPT can be a powerful alternative to Google search. Still, this won't happen overnight, and it will take a significant amount of time before we can trust this kind of AI-driven search.

Second, ChatGPT is still in its early stages and isn't as advanced as Google search. ChatGPT's knowledge is still limited to 2021 data, which means it can't answer current questions. 

Finally, because OpenAI is a research lab, ChatGPT isn't yet available to everyone globally. 

The Google transformation: reinventing search

Understanding all the challenges that have arisen since TikTok's transformation into its search competitor and AI took center stage, Google announced last year the expanded capabilities of its search platform. The novelties introduced include immersive view, photo or voice questions, Neighborhood Vibe (visual stories and short videos to better emphasize the atmosphere of places being searched for), Live View for real-time search, eco-friendly itineraries, etc.

According to Elizabeth Reid, Google's VP of Search, users are increasingly using Google indirectly; that is, they come to the platform not to get a specific answer but to find information about a topic. As such, Google shouldn't be perceived as an instant answer-generating machine but rather as a platform that provides relevant sources for knowledge enhancement.

Does Google LaMDA stand a chance to take over?

Google has been working on its own AI chatbot LaMDA for several years, the first version of which appeared in 2021. In 2022, Google engineer Blake Lemoine stated that LaMDA became intelligent and began to think like a human.

It can be assumed that Google's development is equal to ChatGPT. So far, the company is in no hurry to make it publicly available, despite emphasizing that artificial intelligence is vital for its future.

At the moment, we can assume that the company has not yet figured out how to integrate LaMDA into its search while retaining its monetization model – ads.

Many experts like Sridhar Ramaswamy, the former head of Google's advertising department, believe that ChatGPT and its counterparts will eventually destroy Google's traditional search monetization model. "The goal of Google search is to get you to click on links, ideally ads, and all other text on the page is just filler," he said in his comment for Bloomberg.

However, ads will inevitably migrate to the generative AI space, most likely leading ChatGPT-based search solution providers to integrate them into their monetization models. 

Can generative AI breathe new life into Microsoft Bing?

Understanding the prospects of using artificial intelligence in search, Microsoft announced its plans to use ChatGPT in its Bing search engine.

Combining search and ChatGPT can give Microsoft Bing a competitive advantage over Google and help attract the attention of the audience interested in the most direct interaction with search engines. In March 2023, Microsoft plans to introduce a ChatGPT-powered version of Bing. This could be a chance for Microsoft's search to strengthen its competitive advantage.

ChatGPT opens up the possibility for Microsoft to create more engaging experiences with search engine users. With the ability to ask questions in natural language, users will not have to use specific keywords to obtain their desired results. 

Bard – Google's response to ChatGPT

To be better armed in the AI war, Google introduced its own AI algorithm, Bard.

Google's Bard combines natural language processing (NLP) and deep learning to enable faster search results with more accurate answers. Bard can understand and respond to complex queries and recognizing user intent. It also offers a conversational interface and is designed to be intuitive and easy to use. 

The primary difference between Bard and the ChatGPT algorithm is that Bard is focused on providing faster, more accurate search results rather than simply engaging a user in conversation. ChatGPT can engage users in natural language conversations, but its focus is primarily on creating intelligent interactions with humans. While both AI algorithms are designed to enable better search experiences, they are intended for different purposes. Bard is designed to provide fast and accurate search results, while ChatGPT is designed to create conversational interactions with users.

Bard, which has yet to be released to the public, has already taken the heat for an incorrect response it generated in a demo the other week.

In the demo Google posted on Twitter, a user asks Bard: "What new discoveries from the James Webb Space Telescope can I tell my 9 year old about?" Bard responds with a series of bullet points, including one that reads: "JWST took the very first pictures of a planet outside of our own solar system." However, as per NASA, the first image showing any planet beyond our solar system was actually taken by the European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope back in 2004.

This incident led Google's parent company Alphabet to lose $100 billion in market value.

Risks of TikTok and ChatGPT as search platforms

Despite the hype, using TikTok and ChatGPT in search carries significant user risks.

"TikTok's ascent as a search engine may mean that more people stumble upon misinformation and disinformation on the app, which could then be amplified and spread further," says Francesca Tripodi, an information and library science professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. "The platform has struggled with moderating misleading content about elections, the war in Ukraine, and abortion. TikTok's algorithm tends to keep people on the app, making it harder for them to turn to additional sources to fact-check searches."

The problems with the spread of fakes on TikTok were also proven by NewsGuard analysts, who determined that 20% of recommendation videos on TikTok contained misinformation. 

Wrapping up

It is difficult to say whether the new services will really replace the traditional Internet search that has mostly stayed the same for more than 20 years. However, Google search will have to change to meet new audience demands and compete with new search patterns. Period.

In the future, the search will be fully AI-driven. It'll become more natural for users and offer faster and more accurate results. This is a great advantage since the search will get rid of extra steps like entering keywords or going through multiple pages of search results before finding what you were looking for. 

What remains unknown is how Google plans to take advantage of the new AI-driven search technology and what the future of search looks like. It will likely be a combination of traditional and AI-based search engines.

However, only time will tell what Google's ultimate decision is and whether it'll keep preeminence despite myriad alternative search providers breathing down its neck.

And whats your take on this?