For years, sending technicians to fix or refuel a satellite in space was science fiction. Satellites were treated like disposable machines launched full of propellant, used until the fuel ran out and then left to drift into a graveyard orbit. When Northrop Grumman’s MEV-1 autonomously docked with Intelsat 901 in 2020 and then undocked after extending the satellite’s life by 5 years, it was the quiet birth of a new industry. MEV-1 Today, on-orbit servicing and satellite refueling are no longer experimental novelties; they are the foundation of a space infrastructure that will underpin everything from broadband constellations and defence missions to deep space exploration and a sustainable “circular economy” in orbit. This article looks at the economics, technology and geopolitics behind this new sector and argues that on-orbit servicing will change how we use space. Why the Industry Is Emerging Satellites have an expiration date: when fuel runs out most can no longer adjust their orbits, point accurately or deorbit safely. Replacing one can cost hundreds of millions of dollars and months of work. Servicing or refueling an existing spacecraft in orbit can extend its life for a fraction of the cost, reduce debris and create a more sustainable space environment. The market is responding: analysts estimate the on-orbit servicing market at around $2.7 billion in 2024, 11% compound annual growth through 2034. The low-Earth orbit (LEO) segment alone accounts for 82.8% of demand because mega-constellations like Starlink and OneWeb need hundreds of satellites replaced or serviced. $2.7 billion Refueling is a big chunk of this market. A 2025 report says the in-orbit refueling sector will grow from $1.33 billion in 2024 to $2.41 billion by 2029, 12.5% annual growth. The drivers are satellites that can change their mission profiles, longer-duration deep-space missions and defence customers. Orbit Fab, for example plans to deliver hydrazine to geostationary satellites starting in 2025 for $20 million per 100 kg of fuel and has already launched a small fuel depot (Tanker-001 “Tenzing”). Its RAFTI (Rapid Refueling Interface) ports allow satellites to be serviced robotically or via a “self-service pump”. By standardizing refueling interfaces across different spacecraft, RAFTI could become the gas cap of space. Behind these numbers is a much bigger opportunity. The global space economy was $570 billion in 2023 and is expected to triple to $1.8 trillion by 2035. Most of that growth will come not from rockets but from applications on Earth – supply chains, transportation, digital communications and even food and beverage businesses will increasingly rely on space-enabled services. Servicing and refueling will be the logistical backbone that keeps satellites functioning and makes this growth possible. This image captures the cylindrical body of the Hubble Space Telescope in orbit with two rectangular solar‑array wings extended. A robotic arm from a servicing spacecraft is approaching the telescope’s aft end, and the blue curvature of Earth fills the background below. Technology and Innovation The jump from concept to industry has been made possible by breakthroughs in robotics, automation and docking technology. Northrop Grumman’s MEV-1 and MEV-2 vehicles were the first to offer commercial life extension services by docking with old satellites and providing propulsion and attitude control. In 2024, MEV-1 completed its contract and undocked, and its successor is supporting another Intelsat satellite; the company’s next-gen platforms will add capabilities like repairs, upgrades, refueling and debris removal. Northrop’s Mission Robotic Vehicle (MRV) will use two articulated arms to install Mission Extension Pods on client satellites, a modular approach to life extension. MEV-1 and MEV-2 This illustration depicts a sleek, cylindrical satellite with a large solar panel being tended by articulated robotic arms in space. The metallic arms cradle the spacecraft as it orbits above Earth, with a dark, star‑speckled sky in the background. Another player is Astroscale, a company founded to address space debris but now expanding into refueling. In January 2022, Astroscale U.S. signed the world’s first on-orbit fuel sale with Orbit Fab, to refuel its LEXI servicing satellites that will launch to geostationary orbit in 2026. Astroscale’s servicers will do station keeping, inclination corrections and end-of-life disposal for clients, then refuel and keep working. In April 2025, the company announced its 300-kg Refueler spacecraft will refuel a U.S. military satellite in 2026, creating a complete ecosystem of client, servicer and depot. Japan’s arm of the company has gone further: in September 2025, it unveiled REFLEX-J, a demonstration mission that will integrate robotics, computer vision and fuel-transfer systems to refuel in low Earth orbit by 2029. Astroscale 300-kg Refueler spacecraft REFLEX-J Startups are also pushing the boundaries. GITAI, a Japanese-American robotics company, completed a demo outside the International Space Station in March 2024 with a 1.5-m dual robotic arm that did servicing and assembly tasks using fully autonomous control. The company will deploy servicing robots by 2026 that can rendezvous, inspect, de-orbit and life extend. Meanwhile, Europe’s ClearSpace-1 mission, supported by the European Space Agency, will launch in 2026 to capture and de-orbit a discarded rocket adapter with four robotic arms; the same technology can be used for refueling and repair. These missions show that robotic dexterity in microgravity has matured to the point where complex servicing operations are possible. And the platforms that host satellites are changing too. Blue Origin’s Blue Ring is a multi-mission, multi-orbit space mobility platform with high delta-V propulsion. It’s hosting, transportation and refueling services and can carry payloads over 3 metric tons, essentially an in-space logistics hub. All this is building the hardware and software for a space highway. Geopolitics and the New Space Race While US firms are stealing headlines, on-orbit servicing is a world game. India's SpaDeX mission of January 2025 became the first autonomous docking for the country, the fourth globally. India is looking to expand its space economy to $44 billion by 2040 and deems servicing and assembly as central to its own space station. In Europe, not only does ClearSpace clean up rubbish but also maintains a profitable servicing business partially funded by the European Space Agency. The US is catching up too. The US Space Force and Space Systems Command are funding experiments with Astroscale and Northrop Grumman to determine whether on-orbit refueling is cost-effective. In April 2025, Space Force officially awarded a $70 million contract to Northrop's demo of Elixir refueling payload and an equal agreement with Astroscale U.S. to refuel in 2026 a DoD satellite. Refueling, Lt. Gen. Philip Garrant said, would enable satellites to "maneuver without regret" for attack and defensive missions. However, not all missions have been successful. The OSAM-1 mission by NASA to refuel the Landsat 7 satellite with a robotic arm was cancelled in March 2024 for cost growth and schedule reasons. The agency will instead license the technology to commercial partners, a move from government-led servicing to public-private partnering. OSAM-1 Landsat 7 This image is a stylized concept of an orbital “fuel” station. A cylindrical depot labeled “FUEL” floats above Earth while several small satellites follow glowing orange curved flight paths around the planet, suggesting a network of orbital highways linking refueling hubs and spacecraft. Aside from these public demonstrations, there is also a geostrategic advantage. In June 2025, satellite-tracking companies saw China's Shijian-25 satellite approach Shijian-21, a so-called world's first high-orbit refuelling test, according to reports. The two satellites were only 1km apart and were capable of docking, although this is not confirmed. If the successful action is performed, that will be one-upmanship for China on its previous success in 2022 when SJ-21 recovered a deceased satellite from geosynchronous orbit. Experts advise that such dual-use servicing operations may be used in co-orbital counterspace missions; therefore we require norms and transparency to avoid misinterpretation. Challenges and Risks Building an orbital service economy isn’t without its challenges. Technical complexity is the most obvious: docking and transferring fluids in microgravity requires precise alignment, autonomous guidance and fail-safe mechanisms. Hydrazine and other hypergolic fuels ignite on contact, so even a minor leak could blow the whole thing up. A Thomasnet report on China’s refueling experiments noted that orbital refueling upholds Murphy’s Law: “anything that can go wrong will go wrong.” It highlights the dangers of handling hypergolic propellants, liquids in microgravity and collision during autonomous rendezvous. These risks add up to cost and insurance premiums. Economically, the business case for servicing depends on a steady stream of customers. The Space Force is still debating whether it’s more cost-effective to refuel existing satellites or just launch new, cheaper ones with better propulsion. For commercial operators, the decision comes down to fuel prices, the life of the satellite and the availability of servicing ports. Orbit Fab’s $20 million per 100 kg of hydrazine may seem steep but for a $300 million geostationary satellite generating tens of millions a year in revenue, extending its life by just a year can justify the cost. There are policy and legal challenges. International law around satellite servicing is murky: the 1967 Outer Space Treaty prohibits national appropriation of celestial bodies but says nothing about attaching to or refueling someone else’s satellite. Without clear norms, countries may view proximity operations as hostile. The specter of weaponization looms large when dual-use technologies can repair one satellite and disable another. Transparency, data sharing and multilateral agreements will be key. Finally, there’s the risk of stranded assets. If a company invests heavily in servicing vehicles and can’t get customers or loses a spacecraft due to a malfunction, the financial hit could deter further investment. NASA’s cancellation of OSAM-1 shows how quickly the political winds can change. The industry will need patient capital and anchor customers (governments or large constellations) to cross the valley of death. OSAM-1 Looking Ahead: An Opinionated Outlook On-orbit servicing and refueling are a game-changer for humanity’s relationship with space. By making satellites maintainable and upgradable, we unlock a new era of flexibility, innovation and sustainability. From my perspective as someone who has seen the communications and technology industries evolve, the winners in this new sector will be those who think beyond simple life extension contracts. They will build platforms and interfaces that become part of the space fabric, like how containerization changed shipping or how the Internet Protocol standardized data exchange. A ubiquitous refueling port like RAFTI, modular service pods and autonomous robotic workhorses are the building blocks of a space logistics network that will underpin broadband, Earth observation, defence and exploration for decades. But we must not let the promise of servicing distract us from responsible stewardship. It’s tempting for commercial operators to maximize satellite lifetimes without addressing the growing debris cloud; servicing must go hand in hand with active debris removal and end-of-life planning. China’s opaque experiments remind us that transparency and international cooperation will determine if servicing enhances security or triggers suspicion. Regulators should encourage common standards, require data sharing on proximity operations and support verification mechanisms. Looking forward, I think on-orbit servicing will gradually move from niche contracts to an essential utility, just as gas stations became essential once cars proliferated. By 2035, we may see a network of fuel depots along popular orbital lanes, robotic tenders doing upgrades and repairs and new spacecraft designed from day one to be serviced. More importantly, on-orbit reuse, refueling and recycling will make space a more sustainable domain, a prerequisite for humanity’s ambitions beyond Earth. Those who invest now in the capabilities, standards and ethics of this emerging industry will not only create a lot of economic value but also shape the future of how we explore and use the final frontier. 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