The Hypersonic Drone Market: How the Axis of Innovation Is Forming Around It

As Ukraine races to develop vital autonomous drones that have proved integral to its battlefield successes, other world powers are starting to accelerate hypersonic development to prepare for the battlefields of tomorrow.

On July 8, 2024, Russia launched an attack on Ukrainian cities which included the use of hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, targeting a children's hospital in Kyiv among other sites.

An Axis of Innovation

As the China-Russia axis establishes a market hegemony, Ukraine has been impacted by the use of the pairing's "daggers" technology and emerging hypersonic developments that have led the Western alliance to seek cooperative innovation for hypersonic drones in particular. Destinus has taken an incentive as a European-based company to supply Ukraine with hypersonic arms in the future that is not reliant on the China-Russian hierarchy or the United States-Chinese trade conflict.

As these technologies continue to develop in the coming years, they will be featured in future conflicts such as a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027. China has become a scientific superpower as The Economist wrote. However, China has been pushing to take the lead in hypersonic materials science. One advantage for the Western alliance is that there are private enterprises such as Destinus that are playing an important role in supporting research and development.

According to a 2023 report from the Congressional Budget Office, the Department of Defense has proposed a budget of $15 billion for the development and procurement of hypersonic technologies for the Army and Air Force over the period from 2023 to 2027.

Western Competition

The U.S. Army aims to deploy its first long-range hypersonic weapon battalion by the end of 2024, and the Navy plans to equip Zumwalt class destroyers with their first hypersonic system by 2025.

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 also introduced hypersonic weapons on the battlefield for the first time as Russia began employing the use of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. By February 2024, Russia used a Zircon hypersonic missile to strike Kyiv, which Russia said has “a range of 1,000 km (625 miles) and travels at nine times the speed of sound.” The use of this hypersonic technology is not only a challenge for Ukraine’s air defense but also provides important insights for Western military planners on the evolving nature of warfare.

For the Western world, it is not only governments and militaries that are driving the hypersonic competition, but the private sector is also growing to play an important role in that race.

Civilian Application of Hypersonic Projects

Speaking to Frontsight Media, Oleksandr Danylyuk, Senior Vice President of Defense at Destinus, a European aerospace company, said: “Since its inception, the civil aviation industry has significantly improved its operations.”

"Commitment to hypersonic flight is at the core of our mission to revolutionize the aviation industry," said Danylyuk.

"With a forward-thinking mindset, we aim to develop autonomous aircraft capable of carrying passengers worldwide."

He noted that capacity, capability, efficiency, aircraft, and the infrastructure that the aviation industry have evolved exponentially.

“However, speed has stagnated, limiting the range and time of travel. From this realization, Destinus was born to propose a hypersonic solution to connect the world. Relying on hydrogen, which has a higher energy density than traditional kerosene, is an effective and sustainable way to achieve supersonic speeds,” said Danylyuk.

Forbes summarized the acclaim of the Destinus vision in this field:

“Destinus wants to revolutionize air transport with a hybrid hypersonic aircraft that combines hydrogen-fueled air-breathing turbojet engines for takeoff, landing, and flights at subsonic and supersonic speeds with a separate cryogenic (ramjet) rocket engine which will boost the aircraft to hypersonic speeds.”

"The idea was spearheaded by our founder and CEO, Mikhail Kokorich, who is both a physicist and entrepreneur," said Danylyuk.

"Mikhail has an extensive background in the aerospace industry through the various companies he has founded, including Momentus, Astro Digital, Helios Wire, and Dauria Aerospace. To create a European company, he founded Destinus, based in Payerne, Switzerland,” Danylyuk said.

In addition to its Swiss headquarters, Destinus has offices in France, Spain, the Netherlands, Germany, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom.

An Expanding Vision

“Today, our team comprises about 200 people, primarily experts and engineers in various fields with experience in major aerospace companies and institutions," he said. "Destinus has already flown two prototypes to validate the model and the system," said Danylyuk.

"Destinus 3 is expected to fly around 2025 with a liquid hydrogen-fueled afterburner."

According to Danylyuk, the next prototype, Destinus 3, will test the “hydrogen-fueled afterburner and reach supersonic speeds. This milestone will set Destinus on the path to the next iteration of a civil hypersonic aircraft, which will target higher speeds, liquid hydrogen fuel, and increased autonomy.”

"While supersonic defensive drones are anticipated to be commercialized by the end of the decade, we expect hypersonic aircraft to become commercialized in the 2030s," Danylyuk continued. "Their proliferation in the marketplace will largely depend on the ability of today's infrastructures and regulations to adapt to and support hypersonic travel."

As the private sector accelerates the development of hypersonic aircraft, the defense industry stands to gain significantly from these advancements, which are poised to make an impact on the battlefield.

Michael E. White, the principal director for hypersonics in the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, explained:

“Hypersonic systems are among the highest priorities in the Defense Department's modernization strategy to ensure continued U.S. battlefield dominance.”

Challenges With Hypersonic Drones

"The design of hypersonic engines is a multidisciplinary challenge because it requires rethinking all aspects of a conventional aircraft and adapting it to hypersonic speeds," said Danylyuk.

These speeds have proven to be a game changer for operators in the thick of fire, who need to evade Russian similar models and evade potential risks of losing scarce resources.

"First, we need to achieve the hypersonic regime with hydrogen fuel. Second, it's essential to provide the necessary flying systems to support autonomous high-speed flying. We must ensure aircraft and structure safety under severe flight conditions. Finally, there needs to be coordination within the regulatory framework to support innovation and development," Danylyuk explained, before delving into the subject of European regulation of these systems. Regarding the European regulatory framework, Danylyuk explained that there are two areas that need more structure: flying with hydrogen and flying at very high altitudes.

”While the engineering, handling, and use of hydrogen in transportation (e.g., marine and ground transportation) are already developed, the certification of engines and aircraft is not yet available.” Danylyuk said, continuing to note that the regulation can only be created in close coordination ongoing research efforts and their findings.

Other Implications of Hypersonic Drone Projects

"Developing prior field experience and know-how for real-life missions is essential to building such innovative and effective aircraft," said Danylyuk. "By entering the defense and dual-use market, Destinus can develop AI flight systems and UAVs, gather experience, and generate revenue while validating technology for civilian use. The need for greater speed, full autonomy, and cost control in modern defense flight systems aligns perfectly with our value proposition."

Danylyuk believes that the European defense industry highly values supersonic and hypersonic propulsion systems, and Destinus plans to leverage its capabilities to meet Europe's current security and defense needs.

“The hydrogen hypersonic aircraft landscape is sparsely populated. Only a small number of companies are involved in the development of high-speed aircraft,” he said. Danylyuk further noted that the main competitors of Destinus are “Venus Aerospace and Hermes, two U.S. companies engaged in hypersonic flight.”

Mirroring the mission values of Destinus, Venus Aerospace recently completed the inaugural test flight of a drone equipped with its innovative "rotating detonation rocket engine" (RDRE). This engine accelerated the drone to just under the speed of sound.

With this achievement, the company moves closer to its ambitious goal of developing superfast commercial jets powered by this advanced engine technology. Venus Aerospace, like Destinus, also envisions a future where RDRE-powered jets could revolutionize air travel.

Battlefield Implications

Chinese researchers have recently said that “Hypersonic technology has gradually moved from conceptual exploration to practical application.” A new generation of China's unmanned hypersonic aircraft has reached a level of aerodynamic performance that can rival the most advanced fighter jets in the US military, according to Chinese scientists.

These aircraft showcase a significant leap forward in aviation technology, showing China's rapid advancements in the development of hypersonic capabilities. The scientists claim that these unmanned vehicles not only match but in some aspects may even surpass the performance of American F-22s, as the great powers begin to compete in the realm of high-speed military aviation.

However, in 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the Kinzhal hypersonic missile would be unmatched by all existing air defense systems. But then in May 2023, Ukraine used a Patriot battery to shoot down a Kinzhal hypersonic missile.

Hypersonic technology likely won’t be the game changer on the battlefields of the future, but nation-states will still look to utilize the technology to gain an edge on the battlefield.

Feature image courtesy of Destinus