Happy New Year, Hackers!
Welcome to the first 3 Tech Polls newsletter of the year. Each week, we curate community-led conversations about technology and other related verticals, featuring results from our latest Poll of the Week and two related polls from around the web.
This week, we’re looking at the current AI landscape, and more specifically, whether 2025 marked a real turning point away from generalist AI toward something more fragmented, specialized, or hybrid as we settle into the new year.
This Week’s HackerNoon Poll Results
Was 2025 the “Death of the Generalist AI”?
The "Death of Generalist AI" refers to the end of the one-size-fits-all era. In its place, Small Language Models (SLMs) and Domain-Specific AI have emerged as the industry's workhorses. These models are trained on curated, high-fidelity data for specific sectors like law, healthcare, and finance, allowing them to outperform general models in accuracy and reliability within those niches. By running locally on hardware or on-premise servers, they prioritize privacy (data remains on-device), speed (zero cloud latency), and cost-efficiency.
If you were expecting a clear verdict, this poll didn’t deliver one. Instead, it revealed just how divided the conversation still is.
-
31% — No. Generalist models like ChatGPT and Gemini still dominate. This was the most selected response, though not by a wide margin. For many readers, generalist models remain the default interface for AI. They’re still the tools people use most often, even as new alternatives emerge.
-
27% — Yes. Highly specialized models now dominate. Nearly as many respondents see the opposite trend. From domain-specific tools in healthcare, law, and finance to smaller models optimized for speed or privacy, this group believes specialization is now where real value lives.
-
29% — Not really. Generalist and specialized models now exist as a hybrid. A sizable portion of the audience rejects the idea of a clean break altogether. Instead, they see an ecosystem where generalist models act as a foundation, with specialized systems layered on top.
It’s not too late to join the conversation. Weigh in on the poll results here.
What the Prediction Markets Have to Say
Kalshi
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
While the HackerNoon poll focused on the types of AI, Kalshi traders are betting on who will come out on top overall.
- xAI — 78%
- OpenAI — 47%
- Anthropic — 35%
The confidence here is clustered around a small group of major players. Even as the industry talks more about specialization, markets still expect leadership to come from companies building large, broadly capable systems.
Polymarket
Which company will have the best AI model end of January?
Polymarket takes this a step further, with results that are far less ambiguous.
- Google — 92%
- xAI — 6.4%
- OpenAI — 1.4%
- Everyone else — under 1% each
When real money is on the line, traders overwhelmingly favor a single incumbent. Whatever changes are happening under the hood, market confidence still points toward large, general-purpose AI backed by massive infrastructure.
Put together, the three tech polls paint a clear picture:
- The community is split on whether generalist AI is fading, evolving, or simply being rebranded.
- Prediction markets remain focused on a handful of dominant companies.
- Despite growing interest in specialized models, confidence still concentrates around generalist platforms at scale.
The “death of generalist AI” may be overstated. What we’re seeing instead is a reshaping of the ecosystem, where specialization grows in importance, but generalist models continue to anchor the space as we move into 2026.
That’s all for this week.
Once again, Happy New Year Hackers!