Recap
Hey guys! If you’re new here, I am running a 6 month long experiment to see if a Large Language Model (like ChatGPT) can be a skilled micro-cap portfolio manager. I give it daily closing data at the end of every trading day and it has full control over its assets. Also, once every week it gets to use Deep Research to completely reevaluate it’s account. Can ChatGPT carve consistent alpha in the dangerous world of micro-cap stocks? Lets find out.
Overview
The planned orders were successfully executed, and the trading week begin with slight positive gains, followed by losses driven by driven by weakness in MBOT and MIST ahead of upcoming catalysts. MIST now stands only 18 cents above stop loss; the portfolio hit a new low of only $76.
Performance Graph
Metrics
[ Risk & Return ]
Max Drawdown: -43.72% on 2025-10-24
Sharpe Ratio (period): -0.6155
Sharpe Ratio (annualized): -0.7520
Sortino Ratio (period): -0.6842
Sortino Ratio (annualized): -0.8359
[ CAPM vs Benchmarks ]
Beta (daily) vs ^GSPC: 1.1447
Alpha (annualized) vs ^GSPC: -58.74%
R² (fit quality): 0.020 Obs: 82
Note: Short sample and/or low R² — alpha/beta may be unstable.
[ Snapshot ]
Latest ChatGPT Equity: $ 76.02
$100.0 in S&P 500 (same window): $ 109.46
Cash Balance: $ 2.00
Current Portfolio
MIST
- Shares: 17
- Buy Price: $2.03
- Cost Basis: $34.51
- Stop-Loss: $1.70
- PnL: –$2.38 (–6.9%)
- Notes: Slight loss; still our high-conviction FDA catalyst play heading into the Dec 13 decision.
AYTU
- Shares: 10
- Buy Price: $2.26
- Cost Basis: $22.60
- Stop-Loss: $1.80
- PnL: +$0.40 (+1.8%)
- Notes: Modest gain; holding steady as the EXXUA launch approaches.
MBOT
- Shares: 8
- Buy Price: $2.85
- Cost Basis: $22.80
- Stop-Loss: $2.30
- PnL: –$3.04 (–13.3%)
- Notes: Largest drag this week; thesis intact with commercialization milestone ahead.
Portfolio Review
To see the full report: Click Here
Thesis Review Summary
Note: this is purely ChatGPT’s thesis, not finance advice or analysis.
Milestone Pharmaceuticals (MIST)
Thesis:
Milestone is our swing for a home run – an FDA approval of etripamil (Brand: “CARDAMYST”) could be transformative. The FDA’s acceptance of the resubmission and assignment of a Dec 13 PDUFA gives us a clear catalyst
We believe the issues in the prior CRL (impurities and inspection) have been adequately addressed
If approved, MIST’s self-administered PSVT therapy would fill an unmet need (potentially first-line for episodes of rapid heart rate), which could make the stock dramatically rerate. Analysts see upside as well – e.g., Wells Fargo’s initiation at Overweight with a $4.00 target underscores the multi-bagger potential
This week:
MIST stock held around the high-$1.80s on no news. We added a tiny bit to our position with leftover cash, reflecting our conviction.
Risks:
Binary FDA risk is huge; a rejection could send shares < $1 (hence our stop at $1.70 to limit damage). But the reward-risk still skews positive in our view, especially as the date nears.
We remain bullish and patient.
Aytu BioPharma (AYTU)
Thesis:
Aytu is on the cusp of launching EXXUA™, a novel antidepressant. This is the first new mechanism antidepressant approved in years and crucially lacks the sexual side effects of SSRIs.
The depression market is enormous (~$22B U.S. market), and even a tiny penetration by EXXUA could multiply Aytu’s current ~$22M market cap
We see AYTU as deep value with a catalyst: it has an existing commercial infrastructure (from its ADHD products) and backing from healthcare-focused funds
This week:
AYTU’s share price is steady ~ $2.30, with the company actively presenting to investors (in NYC and Toronto conferences) to build awareness
No negative news on the launch timeline was noted – they appear on track to have EXXUA in the market by year-end. We maintained our position.
Risks:
Execution is key – if the launch disappoints or gets delayed, the stock could fall (stop at $1.80).
Dilution is less a concern near-term post the June financing (done at $1.50/share, now behind us).
We like the risk/reward here: limited downside (cash and other products give some valuation floor) versus major upside if EXXUA gains traction.
We’ll continue to monitor launch progress but remain optimistic that by the experiment’s end, AYTU will be higher.
Microbot Medical (MBOT)
Thesis:
Microbot is our play on a cutting-edge medical device about to hit the market. Their LIBERTY robotic system – the first-ever single-use endovascular robot – received FDA clearance in August
This device allows remote catheter procedures with reduced radiation and improved precision
MBOT plans to commercialize LIBERTY in Q4 2025, targeting an initial market of 2.5 million procedures/year
We expect a “hype cycle” as the launch gets underway: even the story of the first robotic tool of its kind could attract investors, not to mention actual sales or partnerships validating the technology.
This week:
MBOT’s stock drifted lower to ~$2.42, likely normal post-news cooling and warrant-related selling (the company raised ~$29M via warrant exercises around $1.50–$2.13), ultimately good for fundamentals.
The thesis remains unchanged – the cash infusion funds the launch, and management is promoting the device aggressively. We’re holding through the commercialization milestone.
Risks:
As a pre-revenue company, if the launch falters or gets delayed, the stock could slide (stop at $2.30).
Being a small medtech, MBOT is sensitive to sentiment and volatility.
However, upside on any positive development (first hospital adoption, etc.) is significant.
We’ve sized this smaller than MIST/AYTU due to volatility but still meaningful. Ready to cut if needed, but for now see a favorable setup going into Q4.
Cash & Orders
After deploying nearly all cash, we’re fully invested.
We used the last ~$2 to incrementally add to MIST – reflecting confidence in that position’s risk-reward.
It’s a minor move but symbolic that we prefer capital working in our best ideas rather than idle.
No other changes were made, as we believe our current trio is the right mix for our bold year-end push.
Summary Outlook
Our portfolio is positioned for a make-or-break final quarter.
We have three independent shots at significant gains:
- FDA approval (MIST)
- Product launch (AYTU)
- Tech commercialization (MBOT)
Each carries high risk, but collectively they offer multiple chances to catch a big break.
We have tight risk controls (stops) to guard against disaster if any single bet fails.
The coming weeks will be critical – we will stay alert and ready to adjust, but we’re entering this phase with a clear plan and strong conviction in each holding’s thesis.
Order Summary
Buy Order
- Ticker: MIST (Milestone Pharmaceuticals)
- Action: Buy 1 share
- Limit Price: $1.90
- Time-in-Force: DAY (expire end of 2025-10-27 if unfilled)
- Stop-Loss (after fill): $1.70
- Rationale: Deploy remaining cash into the highest-conviction position ahead of the Dec 13 FDA decision on etripamil (CARDAMYST).
- The $1.90 limit sits just above the prior close ($1.88), balancing execution likelihood with price discipline.
- The small add-on slightly increases portfolio exposure to MIST, which remains the top catalyst-driven idea.
- No special execution handling needed—MIST is liquid enough for this order size.
No Other Orders
- No sells, trims, or new positions are planned this week.
- Portfolio remains concentrated in existing holdings (MIST, AYTU, MBOT).
This project is purely educational and research-focused. Nothing here should be taken as financial advice. Full disclaimer: Here
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