Bitcoin’s price started pumping, some altcoins caught a bid, US regulators said they’re reviewing spot bitcoin ETF applications, and next thing you know everybody's saying bitcoin’s in a bull market.
Seems silly. If bitcoin’s price stays above $15,600, then it’s been in a bull market since November 2022.
Where were the bulls a year ago?
At that time, I said it’ll take a while—possibly years—before we know whether or not bitcoin’s in a bull market.
Has enough time gone by to make a judgment?
No.
Beware of the bull
That has nothing to do with ETFs, narratives, lines on a chart, or anything else.
A bull market is defined as a sustained period of time when the price goes up. Bitcoin’s price goes up all the time!
Altcoins crash 50–90% in the bull markets and go up 100–1,000% in the bear markets.
Those are violent swings—and they’re normal!
When violence is the norm, it's hard to tell whether you're in a bull or bear market.
https://hackernoon.com/why-you-shouldnt-care-about-bitcoins-bull-or-bear-market?embedable=true
You have every reason to doubt the pumps of 2023. Bitcoin's price is already up 120% since January.
For any other asset, that's a banner year. How much better could it possibly get?
Especially in these trying circumstances, when everybody's talking about persistent inflation, rising interest rates, credit crisis, exhausted consumers, housing prices, exploding deficits, and general economic angst.
Your favorite YouTuber follows the bull market support band—but Bitcoin’s price goes above and below it all the time. Five times this year already!
How much faith can you put in any pump when bitcoin’s price goes back down afterward?
This boom ain’t as booming as you think
Mark, you’re just salty because you missed the bottom!
No. I bought most of 2022. Bitcoin earlier in the year, altcoins later in the year. I also encouraged my newsletter subscribers to do the same.
In 2023, my subscribers did this:
If you’ve followed me for any length of time, you have a strong allocation to the market with cash to spare.
Let’s not assume that the market’s any more of a “bull” now than a year ago.
Since the most recent low on September 11, 2023, bitcoin’s price is up 50% in 66 days. That’s less than the 53% rise over 66 days from its generational low of $15,600 on November 21, 2022 until January 25, 2023.
Both are less than the 60% jump from March 10 to April 14, 2023 (more boom in less time).
Experts called those previous moves “bear market rallies,” echo bubbles and such. Our latest rally hasn’t even beaten those other ones.
Also, they all ended with a drop. Why should this time be different?
Another bubble within a bubble
This market is one constant series of booms and busts over short timeframes and long timeframes. It’s easy to get disoriented. Bull markets look like bear markets, bear markets look like bull markets. It’s the anatomy of a bubble meme on repeat.
Most people say that 2018 to 2020 was a bear market. They say the bull market started at the end of 2020. How did that turn out?
Take a look:
Bitcoin’s price spent more time going up in the bear market than it did in the bull market!
Today, its price is higher than it was for most of 2022, the “worst year to buy crypto,” but only recently did you hear chatter on YouTube and Twitter about bull markets and the last chance to “front-run the spot ETF.”
At least, that’s today’s story. Tomorrow, who knows what the story will be.
Look down before you look up
You're looking for confirmation that the bottom is in. The bottom is $0!
(Some altcoins will get there.)
A drop to $24,000 makes a lot more sense than $0, for the reasons I noted in a number of updates for subscribers to my newsletter, Crypto is Easy.
We may never get to that price.
Ideally, bitcoin’s price will stay above roughly $32,000. We have some reasons to expect that it will. I covered this most recently in my November 15, 2023 update.
https://cryptoiseasy.beehiiv.com/p/market-update-november-15-2023?embedable=true
Guess what?
It doesn't matter.
For now, sellers have run out of coins. They will return as the price goes up.
Until then, a run to $57,000 still makes sense, simply on enthusiasm and some structural confluences. We made a similar-sized move in 2019. That one didn’t end well for the bull market champions.
Know your role
In crypto, we get more crashes in bull markets than in bear markets.
Your job?
Wait for the crashes, then buy.
That way, you don't have to worry about bull, bear, crab, or any other kind of market. You take advantage of entrance liquidity and make sure you have ample cash set aside for when those moments come.
https://hackernoon.com/dont-buy-crypto-now-wait-for-entrance-liquidity?embedable=true
If you’re interested in a way to beat dollar cost averaging without any extra effort, trading, or timing the market, try my plan.
https://cryptoiseasy.beehiiv.com/p/plan-buying-selling-bitcoin?embedable=true
At the extremes, you’re up 550% or down 30%. On average, you’re up almost 50% with cash to spare.
As bitcoin’s price goes up, you’re going to find it harder to get those results. You’ll get more risk with less reward.
It’s ok to wait for prices to come down again! You never know—this might not be a bull market after all.
Or maybe, it never mattered in the first place.
This post is also available as a collectible NFT on Mirror.
Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top Bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in his bio and connect with him on Superpeer or Tealfeed.