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How to Estimate What You Can’t Predict: Web App Development Costby@alex.savchenko
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10,212 reads

How to Estimate What You Can’t Predict: Web App Development Cost

by Alexander SavchenkoJune 11th, 2018
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The most common approach to estimating a web app is to visualize the end result and trace the steps backwards to the current state of a project. The question to ask is: <em>What has to be done in order to achieve this?</em>

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- How much does it cost to build a web app?

- $33,659.

Trying to imitate another app to build yours? Stop it.

The most common approach to estimating a web app is to visualize the end result and trace the steps backwards to the current state of a project. The question to ask is: What has to be done in order to achieve this?

This approach doesn’t always work for novel ideas, because there’s too much uncertainty about the end product. We simply can’t give an accurate estimation based on a description like this: “I want to make an on-demand platform like Uber, but for pets” or “I want to build decentralized Facebook on a blockchain and with privacy”. I call this approach “a clone with a twist”. This gives us an illusion of understanding what the final result should be, but this is just an illusion because ultimately you are not Facebook and not Uber. We see an app or successful service and think “If I can change this and this part, I will get my perfect new app”. If you think on a system level, companies like Facebook and Uber have spent thousands of engineering hours to get where they are today. You can’t neglect this and demand the same result with much fewer hours and less money to spend.

So, fixating on the image of another product in your head while building your own is a big no-no. The reason is simple: something will most likely change in the course of action. In practice, it means you will have to add and remove, or completely change some features for the sake of a better and more complete product. Other people’s experience is useful, of course as it shows that something can be done.

Remember: deviation from the original plan is 99% inevitable.

In this scenario, the calculation is pretty rough. You can use Order of Magnitude Estimates to get something like this: “I’m 90% certain that the app can be completed between 50 and 95 days. I’m also 80% certain that the project will cost between $50,000 and $80,000.”

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How to estimate web app cost step by step

Step 1. Create user stories and engineering tasks

We collect all our Known Knowns and use them to develop possible user journeys. User story mapping focuses on user’s needs and wants and allows the engineers to make first assumptions about required technologies.

Step 2. Clarify the scope

Making first assumptions is not enough to start working. Each team member needs to know their task and your view of the app. The scope of work varies considerably among different roles in web application development based on the complexity of the wanted web app.

This table shows just some of the experts required to create a web app. For most cases, you are likely to need more — a graphic designer, QA engineer, project manager, copywriter etc.

Step 3. Estimate each task

After we divide the scope into smaller tasks, we use Three-Poinе Estimation Technique to estimate the optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic time for developing a product feature. Here, I will calculate the work in an average working day (but approach might be different depending on the project).

Assume you want to build a website that allows seeing the imitation of traffic routes to optimize the traffic load in the city. Such a service will require a high-level of map precision and artificial traffic imitation. Lets presume we know the components to make it work properly. One of the features we will definitely need is an artificial traffic management system. Except for this, let’s include a filter for different types of weather conditions.

To implement each feature, we will need that many days:

There’s also such a thing as Standard Deviation. We at Django Stars take a 95% confidence interval. So, the final formula will be like this:

So, to implement Traffic Management, we will need 33 ± SD days. Now, try to calculate how much it will take to develop Weather filters.

What to do if you don’t agree with the web application cost

When you’ve estimated the price, you may find it either too cheap or too expensive.

  1. If it too cheap, ask what is included in the price, how many people are going to work on the project, and whether the team got the scope correctly.
  2. If it’s too expensive, here’s what you can do:

a. Cut the scope. Leave only crucial parts of the product required to create an MVP.

b. Find alternative solutions. Some items may have cheaper substitutes. An experienced team can find alternatives that won’t affect the end product, but rather change the way the application works inside.

There’s another case — when your priority is time. If so, you will need to pay extra to cover the overtime hours or to involve more team members.

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Bottom Line

To estimate a web app takes time and involves both the customer and various team members — engineers, designers, marketers etc.

After you tell your idea to the team, they will divide pieces of information into three categories:

  1. What they know and have experience in — Known Knowns
  2. What they haven’t done and they need to estimate risks — Known Unknowns
  3. What they can’t predict but have a vague intuition about — Unknown Unknowns

It will help the team understand the scope and minimize the risks.

We use the Three-Point Estimation Technique to calculate how much it will cost to build a web application. It takes into account not only the code but the whole product.

The main rule: don’t rush, and be careful with your wants. If approached properly, the estimation is more or less accurate, so just relax, talk to the team, and enjoy the process.

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