Here is a snapshot of the two earliest LGBTQ community archives that still stand today and a look at some of the newest queer archiving projects that center diverse voices intersecting queer and trans history. Jim Kepner was a private collector of gay and ...

From the Queer Archives: A closer look at LGBTQ archives and the voices they preserve

In war, it is children who suffer the most. Yet, their voices – their livelihoods – tend to matter the least. This oversight extends even beyond the Gaza Strip. On Oct. 15, a 6-year-old Palestinian American boy, Wadea Al-Fayoume, was fatally stabbed at ...

Israel-Hamas war will leave a generation in trauma. Will the world forget its children?

Two critical leadership positions that will change the educational landscape in Kern and Tulare counties for years to come have now become vacant. These positions — Kern Community College District

Community Voices: Latino community is ready to serve in key education spots

The strategic planning group is finishing up their final listening sessions this week, which have allowed Baylor students, staff and faculty to share and voice their concerns and suggestions for the university. The data from the listening sessions will be used in their upcoming deliberation process to formulate a new strategic plan for Baylor.

Hearing from ‘all voices’: Listening sessions provide perspective

Helen Williams has also been called to in to clear spirits from houses where people have reported spooky goings on

Meet the 'clairaudient' with healing hands who hears spirit's voices

Kristen Gilliland is director of outreach and advocacy programs of the Warren Center for Neuroscience Drug Discovery at Vanderbilt.

Kristen Gilliland helps teens struggling with addiction and honors her son's memory

In a scathing rebuke, Pence faulted “voices of appeasement like Donald Trump, Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis that I believe have run contrary to the tradition in our party that America is the ...

Pence slams Trump, GOP ‘voices of appeasement’ as Israel comes under attack

We might automatically associate hearing voices with neurological conditions like schizophrenia. It now turns out most brains can be tricked into hearing voices that aren't there, given the right conditions.

Even Healthy People Can Be Tricked Into Hearing Voices That Aren't There

Voice actor Gianni Matragrano, who appears in Evil West, Vertigo 2, and more, criticised developer Embark Studios' decision to use AI-generated voices on X/Twitter. Matragrano said the sound in The Finals "doesn't sound good", but he and other voice actors ...

The Finals Criticised by Actors and Devs for Using AI-Generated Voice Overs

Gregory Springer bought in a small town near the Nevado de Toluca volcano in Mexico. A calevera made of rough-hewn red rock that P. Gregory Springer bought in a small town near the Nevado de Toluca volcano in Mexico.

Voices/P. Gregory Springer | Half in love with death

Voices.com

voicescom

$SHIB: My Journey Through the Deepest Recesses & High Command of a $10 Billion Decentralized Army

Why Block.One which raised $4 Billion in ICO is now in a problem Block.one held an initial coin offering (ICO) of EOS tokens (EOS) in 2018, releasing 900 million tokens for approximately $4 billion, making it the largest ICO. Unfortunately, many people have been disillusioned with the company’s trajectory since then. Yves La Rose, the EOS Network Foundation’s (ENF) founder, disclosed that they are gearing up for legal action against EOS founders Block.one in a major milestone of the EOS ecosystem against creator’s tale. Concerns were made about whether ENF will carry out its warning, if they even have a case, or if ENF has a morally relevant authority to do so. However, if and when they do, would that be the best solution, considering B1’s experience with corporate lawsuits and the fact that it has perhaps one of the strongest defense attorneys in the industry? The EOS Network Foundation reported in a blog that several individuals of the EOS community are unhappy with Block.one. “Block.one has not kept its word regarding past promises and that both the community and individual EOS users have been harmed as a result.” The Foundation had previously publicized that it has been in talks with Block.one to identify a mutual understanding. Each party was involved in conversations in an effort to obtain a fair resolution. Block.one, on the other hand, has decided to walk away from the talks, according to ENF. Consequently, the EOS block producers determined that tenure for future EOS token revenues for Block.one should be frozen. La Rose called EOS a failed experiment a few months back. He stated it’s a bad monetary investment, highlighting the market cap and price reduction. He also claimed that the community had lost important developers and had switched its major focus area largely from blockchain innovation to asset management. The token sale was successful due to a barrage of marketing, enthusiasm, and velocity that pushed the price of EOS higher. Unfortunately, marketing and advertising began to decline soon after. B1 shifted its focus to forming a private firm and broadening its geographic reach. They claimed that a robust B1 would contribute to an enhanced EOS, but this never happened. Instead, the exact reverse has happened—unfulfilled promises, including the extravagant debut of Voice.com, followed by further unkept promises. Touted as a game-changing social networking service that would be developed on the EOS blockchain and reward EOS token holders, it was instead created on a private blockchain. La Rose commented: “We have been disappointed with Block.one’s reaction to our attempts to negotiate a solution following its failure to fulfill its commitments. As a result, we are exploring all possibilities to reach a resolution of this outstanding issue by other means.” People became interested in EOS because of B1’s claims to create the community and setting needed for the ecosystem to thrive. It’s safe to argue that EOS would have been in a stronger place today if they had accomplished so. It’s a viewpoint shared by a large number of people within the community. Negative thoughts about EOS significantly influence sentiment today, as evidenced by media and the internet. The ENF claims that individuals who already have put so much money and effort into EOS have been significantly damaged due to B1’s failure to implement. The manner in which B1 interacted with the EOS community has so far not helped matters. When discussing negotiations with the ENF and Brock Pierce, they have repeatedly and deliberately missed the chance to establish a fair and reasonable arrangement. They never interacted with the community, hardly attended to it, and turned down each request for a remark or an engagement. This carelessness sparked outrage in the community, prompting Block Producers to terminate B1’s EOS token vesting timeline. Ever since, the EOS community commenced on mapping its path ahead with a slew of new policies, financing, and rebrands, along with the takeover of EOSIO creation and implementation, new venture capitalists, providing funds for a myriad of task forces, acknowledgment grants, and newfound motivation. Gradually, all of the promises made by B1 are now being fulfilled as the EOS community regains command of its destiny. Catch all the breaking news, and Don’t forget to like the story! . Image credits: Dan Freeman Disclaimer: The purpose of this article is to remove informational asymmetry existing today in our digital markets by performing due diligence, asking the right questions, and equipping readers with better opinions to make informed decisions. The writer holds Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, Solana and Cosmos. The writer has a vested interest in the story.

The Curious Case of Block.One, The Company Behind the $4 Billion ICO 

From February to April 2020, everybody talked about the , a measure of bitcoin’s price across two timeframes displayed as lines on a chart. When the lines cross, bitcoin hits its peak and goes into a bear market. Pi Cycle Those lines crossed two weeks ago, just before bitcoin hit its all-time high of $65,000. And everybody said, “meh, it has to be wrong.” Denial? Is bitcoin on the wrong side of the slope? A Pi Cycle cross is supposed to be the signal for the market cycle peak. That signal flashed. Everybody dismissed it. What does that tell you about indicators? People will believe whatever they want, regardless of what the indicators say. I don’t make decisions based on the Pi Cycle but I like it because it serves as a nice, clean, easy-to-use catch-all for the various metrics that compare short-term price movements with long-term price movements. You can dig through a bunch of indicators or get the same info from the Pi Cycle quickly in one glance. Much easier to use the Pi Cycle. Dismiss it at your peril. When short-term movements go way more extreme than the general overall long-term trend, you need to pay attention. On the way up, you can notch that as one piece of data to suggest the market should fall (even though it might not). On the way down, you can use that as one more reason the market should rise (even though it might not). Just wait until bitcoin’s price drops to a seemingly impossible $26,000 and altcoins get slaughtered. Then everybody will look back and say “the Pi Cycle was right!” But will that be true? It’s right until it’s wrong Did you know there are at least seven Pi Cycle indicators? And they all cross at different times? In this video, a mathematician found seven other combinations of short- and long-term price movements that catch the market cycle peaks from very different directions. Maybe we’re looking at the wrong Pi Cycle? Or perhaps the Pi Cycle is not as much of a concern as everybody thinks? When this Pi Cycle crossed, we saw none of the other “peak” signals. Of all the data models people use to identify market cycle peaks, only the Pi Cycle triggered. (Technically, only one of the various permutations of the Pi Cycle triggered.) In other words, we didn’t come close to a “peak” signal on MVRV, Reserve Risk, 2-year Moving Average Multiplier, Puell Multiple, Logarithmic Growth Curves, Stock to Flow, S2Fx, Golden Ratio, rHODL, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or countless other metrics of previous market cycle peaks. Sometimes, the market just gets ahead of itself. Bitcoin’s price can drop 50% or more in the middle of larger uptrends. We’ve seen that happen more often than we’ve seen a Pi Cycle cross! Altcoins can fall even further — sometimes even in the middle of a raging altseason, as we’ve seen in recent months. The difference is, they recover fairly quickly during the zooms of altseason. During the lulls, they can take weeks or months to get back to even. Complacency Kills While it’s safe to say $65,000 is not the peak of the market, that doesn’t mean we can’t drop before we resume our path to that peak. a lot This is a volatile market full of massive risks and massive rewards. When the upswings bring 10x gains and the downswings bring 80% losses, buying and selling at the wrong time can hurt you. That’s the nature of investing — you will never get the timing just right. You can, however, position yourself to benefit from shifts in momentum and sentiment. Your true enemy is complacency. Bad decisions hurt, but complacency kills. On the Wall Street cheat sheet, complacency comes right after a market cycle peak. Of all the data models we have for bitcoin’s bull and bear market triggers, Pi Cycle is the only one that triggered “bear market.” While it’s hard to believe the only metric that triggered is the only metric that’s right, perhaps it’s worth taking a moment to ask: what if Pi Cycle really the true measure? is At the very least, that might force us to consider all possibilities, not just the ones that you to be true. want Mark Helfman publishes the newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on and . Learn more about him in his . Crypto is Easy Medium Hacker Noon bio Originally published on Voice.com .

Pi Cycle Says Bitcoin’s Bull Market Just Ended (and Nobody Cares)

In a recent article, , I projected market expectations for bitcoin’s price into the future and compared the results to historical indicators of market cycle peaks. The End of The Bitcoin Bull Market As We Know It Guess what? If those expectations come true, bitcoin's bull market will peak this month at approximately $90,000, give or take $10-15k. Yes, that means the market cycle peak will come this month and possibly not break $100,000. (Early May works, too.) That may sound like poppycock because bitcoin recently broke out of a bullish trading pattern in the middle of a parabolic run after completing its record-tying sixth straight month of higher prices. The last two times it did that, its price doubled over less than a month. Altcoins have started to run hard and everybody says institutional money's pouring into the market. While the price has gone sideways for the last month or so, the experts say that's a healthy consolidation before the next leg up. That's my point. Everything's moving too hard, too fast, and if that continues, we will soon see all the signals of a market cycle peak. I lay out the argument in the article linked above. Mark, you’re nuts. Stock-to-Flow says there’s no way that can happen Yes, Stock-to-Flow predicts bitcoin’s price will reach $82,000 in June and stay above $100,000 from July to eternity. Look at this chart, courtesy of : LookIntoBitcoin Do you see the squiggly line at the bottom? That shows you how much bitcoin’s price has strayed from Stock-to-Flow’s predictions over time. When the squiggly line hits the flat black line, that means bitcoin's price is aligned with Stock-to-Flow. As the squiggly line moves away from the flat black line, that means bitcoin’s price is deviating from Stock-to-Flow. You can see it more clearly on this chart from : Glassnode Bitcoin’s price has gone 4x higher and 70% lower than Stock-to-Flow for weeks at a time, and sometimes spends at prices +50% below and +2x higher than the model predicts. months The new version of Stock-to-Flow, , offers a similarly wide range of prices that fit the model. S2Fx We’ve done it before There’s no reason bitcoin's price can’t zoom to $90,000, hit a market cycle peak, crash to $30,000, then go up to $100,000 later this year. Maybe instead of a bull market that looks like 2016–2017, we get a bull market that’s more like 2013: a market cycle peak in April to cap off a long bull run, followed by a massive crash, then a few months of Silicon Valley FOMO that sent prices even higher. Both Stock-to-Flow and its updated version, S2Fx, say we can do that. There’s also no reason bitcoin's price can’t chill around $40–60k for a few months — or even crash down to the $20,000s from here. We’ve seen bitcoin make those types of moves in the middle of raging bull markets, all within the range of prices you get with Stock-to-Flow and S2Fx. While that would take a lot of people by surprise, bitcoin's price has dropped 50% or more in each of the past three years and all of those drops fit into Stock-to-Flow, too. Unless Stock-to-Flow is not very good at predicting bitcoin’s price . . . Mark Helfman publishes the newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on and . Learn more about him in his . Crypto is Easy Medium Hacker Noon bio . Originally published on Voice.com

Bitcoin’s Price Peak Is Coming This Month - Stock-to-Flow Says . . .

I wrote three books about bitcoin and publish a newsletter about cryptocurrency. I'd love for bitcoin's price to reach the lofty expectations everybody else seems to have. When you look at the data, trends, and patterns of behavior we saw as bitcoin’s price approached its four previous market cycle peaks, you will see the same things today as you did for each of those other times. Sure, it's cooled off for the past two weeks, but the trajectory hasn't changed. Still parabolic and coming out of a bull flag. The last time bitcoin did this (February), its price doubled. The time before that (December), its price tripled. If bitcoin comes even close to those targets in April, its bull run will end. I realize that seems crazy. On March 11, 2021, I published going deep into the data and correlations. I summarize them below and recommend you read that other post for a more nuanced and informative explanation. This article hits only the high notes. a detailed post for subscribers of my Crypto is Easy newsletter Also, make sure you caught my post from last month, . Bitcoin’s Market Cycle Peak is a Lot Closer Than You Think Mark, don’t even bother. Institutions will never let that happen! Yes, some say institutions will never let the price crash. No more bear markets. Only up forever. They’re all FOMOing in, buying up even the slightest dip. “Wall of institutional money.” Sounds great. To sustain this bull market, we need institutions to HODL, not just buy. After all, they can’t push prices higher when they’re selling their bitcoin right after they get it. Look at the realized cap HODL waves, which show the movements of bitcoin among older and newer wallets based on the value of the bitcoins that move. Unlike the HODL waves you’re probably used to, this metric quantifies the influence those HODLers have on the market. Rather than calculate a percentage of people or wallets, it calculates the percentage of bitcoin’s market value. We know institutions accumulated a lot of bitcoin from September to December. If they’re still HODLing that bitcoin, we should see it reflected in some growth in the band that represents people who acquired bitcoin in the past 3–6 months. As of mid-March 2021, we didn’t see that at all. In fact, we saw a steep dating back months. drop This chart lumps all the short-term HODLers, people who’ve had bitcoin for three months or less. Blue circles are market cycle peaks. Those shorter-term bands keep widening, resulting in spikes on this chart. You can see the spikes lead to market cycle peaks. As you can tell from the arrow, this most recent spike is approaching (but not quite at) levels we only see at market cycle peaks. As I explained in previous updates, it’s unlikely institutions or their custodians are moving money from old wallets to new ones within their own portfolios, at least not in any significant amount. In other words, those short-term bands are not rising from big HODLers moving to newer wallets that they control. Rather, they’re shipping off their bitcoin to somebody else. Certainly, institutions are HODLing. It’s just not enough to change the trend. some Yea, but money’s pouring into Grayscale and the ETFs! It was until February. Since then, have fallen off a cliff and even went negative in March. flows into Grayscale bitcoin trust Flows into the Purpose bitcoin ETF have dried up, too — from to an average of 200 or less since then. On top of that, 3iQ sold some bitcoin from its fund. 2,200 bitcoins on the first day That signals fatigue or disinterest among institutional investors and traditional retail speculators, at least in the very short-term. (Yes, NYDIG says it has a few billion dollars of institutional money lined up. For a $1 trillion asset like bitcoin, a billion dollars doesn’t seem like enough to move the market.) Ok, that doesn’t matter, that data models predict higher prices for longer Sure, depending on which model you pick. S2F, expanding cycles, hash cycles, four-year cycles, halving cycles, the list goes on. There’s a model for every outcome you want to see, and they all disagree with each other. While I don’t make decisions based on data models, I found a few that fit my bias. They all tell us the market’s approaching its peak. , a mathematical formula that maps the intersection of two specific moving averages. When those averages converge, the market is near its peak. Today, those averages are 5% apart and getting closer with each passing day. All four previous times we saw that pattern, the market peaked within weeks. Pi cycle , a line bitcoin breaches only when it reaches market cycle peaks. We’re very close to breaching that line. Two-year moving average multiplier , an algorithm that marks the big peaks. When bitcoin’s price hits the top of the curve, it signals the absolute peak and triggers deep, long bear markets. If bitcoin’s price remains on this trajectory, we will hit the top of that curve in a month. Logarithmic growth curve . Whenever bitcoin’s price goes above that line, it hits a market cycle peak. That line projects to hit the top of the logarithmic growth curve at the same time as you would expect the lines of the Pi cycle to converge. Golden ratio multiplier All of these signals meet next month at a price of roughly $90,000. For this summary, I’ll overlap all of them on one chart so you can see the trajectory: In my longer update, I delve into this data more deeply. Really interesting stuff. Bottom line? Every time we see those signals converge, we get a crash of +77% and a bear market. Coincidences! Anybody can pick whatever data they want Yes. Anything you can do, I can do better 😉 I don’t offer predictions or statistical proof, just food for thought. The more coincidences you see, the more likely it is that they mean something. We’re long overdue for a severe crash (not a dip) or at least a long consolidation, and maybe we will get that before the market cycle peak. If so, you can throw out all this data. Bitcoin will crash, the market will reset and lay a strong foundation for that big, long bull market that everybody expects. Without that crash or multi-month consolidation, we will head to the market cycle peak a lot sooner at a much lower price than you expect. But the bull market just started Are you sure? Bitcoin’s price has gone up for more than two years. In January 2019, it was $3,200. In January 2020, it was $7,000. In January 2021, it was $25,000. On those dates, the total altcoin market was $37 billion, $53 billion, and $215 billion. Higher each year. We’ve been in this bull market for a while, even if it hasn’t felt like one or it hasn’t met the dictionary definition of “bull market.” Now, the momentum has shifted. This plane’s running out of fuel. It’s ok to refuel Do you want to hop on a plane when it’s already running out of fuel? Or do you want to wait until it lands so you can fill up the tank and then start zooming again? Bitcoin’s price can go a lot higher, but it needs to land and refuel. Otherwise, it will crash. Not a 30% crash like we’ve seen so many times. Not even a 50% crash like we got in 2020 and 2019. A far bigger crash. We still have room to run. You can realistically double your portfolio in a month or two, and if you have a lot of altcoins, you could do even better. That’s an opportunity you can’t get in any other market. At great risk, though. HODLers don’t care Long-term, none of this matters. Bitcoin’s price will almost certainly go way higher in the future than it is today. If you’re willing to HODL the peak and wait six months to three years for your investment to get back to even, then you don’t have to worry about a thing. No matter what happens in the coming months, you’ll be fine in the long run. For me, that’s a big risk to take and a long time to wait. I don’t want to be underwater for that long. You probably don’t, either. It’s different this time No. If we keep this pace, we will soon reach the same place we’ve been four times before, with each market cycle. Four times. Same patterns, Same relationships. Same things we see at the end of each market cycle. It’s not different. It’s not different at all. It’s exactly the same. Why should we expect a different outcome? Mark Helfman publishes the newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on and . Learn more about him in his . Crypto is Easy Medium Hacker Noon bio Originally published at . Voice.com

The End of The Bitcoin Bull Market As We Know It

In my newsletter, , I look at big trends, not the day-to-day movements of prices. Crypto is Easy There’s never a bad time to buy bitcoin, but some times are better than others. It’s more about knowing the risks and opportunities and making a decision that feels good to you. What’s your timeframe? Tolerance for risk? Mindset? What do you want to get out of the market? Even though bitcoin's price has cooled off for the past two weeks, it remains on course to reach $100,000 by May 2021. Will it continue that course? We’ll see. It’s realistic to expect bitcoin's price will go up for another month or two, hit its market cycle peak, then drop significantly. Like, 60-80% or more. It’s also realistic to expect a pretty major crash now, or at least a few months of consolidation while the market settles down. It’s not realistic to expect the price to keep going up at this pace through the end of the year, even though everybody seems to think it will. Strength is fleeing the market Everybody's talking super-cycle and last chance and this thing will never crash and institutions buy every dip. We don't have any evidence of that. From previous updates, we know 2021’s ascent is being driven by retail investors—people like you and me. Grayscale net flows have dwindled for weeks. aSOPR, a measure of market sentiment, remains above its 1 baseline, suggesting people do not care about their bitcoins very much and will more readily trade them for something else. Realized cap HODL waves show the same movements we see as bitcoin approaches a market cycle peak, with long-term HODLers abandoning their bitcoins to short-term HODLers and those short-term HODLers shuffling their new bitcoins to even more-recent buyers. You can see this in the chart below, which lumps short-term HODlers into colored bands. The shortest-term HODLers, 24 hours or less, are at the bottom and 1-3 month HODLers are at the top. The peaks are circled. These HODL bands spiked up a lot in 2021, approaching mid-70% and getting closer to previous market cycle peaks. These short-term HODL bands keep growing. If institutions are really HODLing, we should see these bands level out or drop as institutional bitcoins go to older HODL bands at the top of the chart, not newer ones at the bottom. But we don’t see that. Instead, we see bitcoins continuing to flow to newer wallets. As I've shown in previous updates, it’s unlikely those moves correspond to institutions or their custodians moving bitcoins around within the same portfolio, e.g., from large wallets to small wallets, old wallets to new ones. At least, if they're doing that, they're not doing much of it. Maybe institutions and corporations simply don't hold enough bitcoin to change the trajectory of the market? We shall see. Meanwhile, I’m not buying or selling. Just sticking to my plan. My Plan for Bitcoin's Bull Market As soon as my plan signals to buy or sell, I will let you know. Watch my most recent updates for more about the data and trends. Long Bitcoin But Beware The Super-Cycle Update for February 25, 2021 Update for February 18, 2021 My plan is not a trader’s plan. It’s focused on making the most of this bull market, buying when the price is not likely to go much lower for much longer and very likely to go up forever. Altseaz'n? Altcoins have kept pace with bitcoin as both fell. Look at the highlighted circle in this chart of bitcoin dominance, you can see the altcoins’ proportion of the market held as bitcoin’s price rose and fell during mid-January and February. This is not a price chart, it simply measures the percentage of the total crypto market cap that’s captured as bitcoin. In the past, when alts hold their portion while bitcoin fell or went sideways, the entire altcoin space went as soon as bitcoin’s price turned around. nutz We just need to see whether bitcoin’s price turns around. Does this mean altseason's over? No. In fact, bitcoin's lull has altcoins from zooming. No matter how strong the trends and tailwinds, we can't have altseason unless bitcoin goes up. Bitcoin always leads, altcoins always follow. kept Suffice to say, altcoins have bitcoin on the way up and kept pace with it on the way down. Assuming that trend continues, you can expect a massive boom for altcoins as soon as bitcoin turns around. outpaced Down, then up? A nosedive would be great. That would give the market a chance to reset, laying a strong foundation for even bigger growth. That can’t happen if bitcoin continues its current pace. If bitcoin continues to double/triple in price, then drop 25% before going up again, it will reach $90,000 by May 2021. If that happens, we will see the most accurate top indicators, Puell Multiple and MVRV Z-Score, signal “sell” and the entire market will hit its cycle peak soon after (likely higher than $90,000). After that, bitcoin will have a huge crash. Yes, the data models predict a different outcome on a different timeframe. Stock-to-flow, hash cycles, halving cycles, four-year cycles, expanding cycles, etc. Those models all contradict each other. As my friend says, there are no good models but some are useful. For those who prefer data models instead of my on-chain analysis, look at the logarithmic growth curve model. That model fits this scenario. I prefer analytics that reflect what people do with bitcoin, not projections into the future. As a result, I'm don't make any decisions on data models. It's just nice to know one of the models fits my analysis. Never below $40,000 again? It’s hard to feel good about the market when we see the momentum turning against us. Crypto prices can still go way, way higher long after strength departs. It takes a while for reality to catch up to the market. My gut, personal feeling, looking at the data and reflecting on my own experience when I entered this market in November 2017? It's just uncanny some of the similarities. Same chatter, same sentiment among OGs, same on-chain metrics, same comments on Twitter and YouTube. People who refused to buy at $5,000 piling in at $50,000. Shills, pump-and-dumps, "I don't know what this does but I bought it," and the same patterns in on-chain movements of bitcoins. Eerily similar. In November 2017, crypto was just on the precipice of that explosion you probably remember. Prices had already gone up a lot but it wasn't (yet) all over the mainstream news, just an article here or there or maybe a segment on the occasional newscast. From an investment perspective, that was a terrible time to enter the market. In hindsight, I would never have entered if I knew then what I know now. Do you really want to hop on the plane when it's already running out of fuel and the forecast calls for storms? Or would you rather wait until it lands and hop on after it has a full tank and clear skies ahead? Price lags momentum You can't deny the opportunity is here, now, as it was in November 2017. Without a deep crash or long, sideways consolidation, this market is heading to a big, blow-off top sooner and at a lower price than most people expect. Only a nice, healthy crash or extended sideways move can stop that from happening. Here’s the thing: Price usually lags momentum. We can see momentum in the data I look at. That momentum is fading. When bitcoin’s price drops, strength builds. Eventually, it builds and builds until the market explodes. As the price goes parabolic, weakness builds. Eventually, the bottom falls out. Rinse and repeat. Those are your market cycles. Yes, we could see bitcoin's price double or triple in the coming weeks. Altcoins will do multiples better. That's realistic. Just be careful out there. We’ve gone up very quickly. What goes up must come down. Not usually or sometimes, but always. a lot Always. The only question is how high do we go before we fall, or did we already start the drop? Time will tell. Relax and enjoy the ride! Mark Helfman publishes the newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on and . Learn more about him in his . Crypto is Easy Medium Hacker Noon bio Also published on Voice.com .

Bitcoin's Market Cycle Peak is a Lot Closer Than You Think

In 2017, I bought XRP at $.20 and watched it go to $3 in one month. One month. One. Month. 1,500% in ONE month. I sold half at $3, the rest at $2.50, and thought I was a genius. Only much later did I realize the real geniuses bought it at $.005 and sat on 4,000% gains . before catching another 1,500% on top of that And you think LINK is expensive at $30 and $13 billion market cap? Do you know what XRP’s market cap was when I bought it? $11 billion. That was in November 2017, when the overall crypto market and capital flows were much smaller. Now, the market is much bigger and money is far more abundant. Do you still think we can’t see a $300 LINK token? It’s altseason. It can definitely happen. Altseason: A Brief and Beautiful Thing At some point, the entire market crash. It’s inevitable. will Not a routine 30 – 40% drop, but a big one, probably 60 – 70% or more, with some altcoins going even lower. Until then, altcoins will zoom. ZOOM. As a result, you now have opportunities to make fast money. massive If you’re good and lucky, you can realistically pull off 300% swing trades at will, and possibly do even better. Even just HODLing what you already have, 300% is realistic. Those gains are typical of every altseason. If anything, that’s a low expectation. Many altcoins have gone up 300% this year. already Get it While You Can! Unless we get a very big drop in bitcoin’s price a long sideways move, we will reach our market cycle peak soon. or At that point, the market will force you to sell to protect your investments from greedy people who will crash the market. Once you see the signs of the market cycle peak, you will get out before the party ends. You don’t have much time. Either we get a very nice, healthy drop soon, or we get a massive parabolic rocket ship blast-off to the market cycle peak. Now or in a Few Months If you only want to make fast money in crypto, you need to act urgently. That’s not my thing — I’m a tortoise, not a hare — but I wouldn’t assume this mania will last for the rest of 2021. In fact, we have a lot of evidence to suggest it won’t last much longer. After the crash, once the hype dies down and everybody has a chance to suss out the winners and losers, you will have opportunities to make slow, easy money. If you’re patient and savvy, you can realistically pull off 3,000% gains. Possibly, even better. massive But you will have to wait for it. I’m Sitting on My Hands As for me, I’m not doing anything. The best opportunities come when the market is boring and scary, not when everything’s hyped and prices are zooming. Does that mean I’m missing out on juicy gains? Am I lame for not getting into the latest DeFi coin? Probably. Actually, I’m almost certain I’m missing some short-term money-making opportunities. My goal is to make the most of this bull market. I did that. I spent three years building a portfolio. I already found some moonshots. I feel fortunate that I’m in a position to chill and let the market do its thing. I don’t need to add more risk and spend more time and money chasing altcoins. If you subscribed to for long enough, you did, too. Some of my specific altcoin recommendations have already delivered 1,000% gains. Most are up 500% or more. Crypto is Easy We got in early. No reason to play catch-up or ape into the latest governance token. Enjoy this moment. In a few months or less, everything will change, as it did in the fall of 2020, winter of 2019, all through 2018, and twice during 2017. Nothing lasts forever. Make sure you’re ready for when it ends. That’s when the opportunities come. real Mark Helfman publishes the newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on and . Learn more about him in his . Crypto is Easy Medium Hacker Noon bio Originally published on Voice.com .

Making the Most of Altseason in a Bull Market

Have you seen bitcoin's price lately? It's over $45,000. The total cryptocurrency market cap just crossed $1.4 trillion. Everybody's talking about a $100,000 bitcoin, or even a $288,000 bitcoin . this year People who said crypto was a scam at a $500 billion market cap are for the market cap to drop down to $500 billion. begging People who said “never bitcoin” when its price was $14,000 in 2019 now ask whether they should use their next stimulus check to buy some at a price that's 3x higher than it was back then. People who said they couldn’t afford bitcoin at $4,000 told me they’ll buy the next dip. You didn’t miss your chance If you didn’t “stack sats” from January 2019 to December 2020, you may think you missed the bitcoin boat. It’s ok! That boat will come back to harbor—maybe sooner than you think! In a few years, you’ll laugh at the idea that anybody worried about bitcoin at $45. Its price could drop 60% immediately and remain in a healthy, long-term uptrend. That doesn’t mean you should buy now. Today, you’re getting a $45,000 bitcoin in the middle of a parabolic uptrend. Looking at on-chain metrics like aSOPR, percent supply in profits, MVRV, HODL waves, and almost every other long-term indicator, you see the same data you see whenever we head to market cycle peaks (and the inevitable crash that follows). We’ve already had two +50% crashes since this bull market started in January 2019. Why not wait for a third one? You may worry that bitcoin’s price will turn around and shoot up to $80,000 or higher. That's realistic, but keep in mind—nothing fundamentally changes when bitcoin’s price goes up and down. It’s no more valuable at $100,000 than $10,000. A boom from $9,800 to $45,000 did not make bitcoin any more or less risky. Focus on opportunity, not price Why worry about price? If you bought bitcoin at $100 and sold it at $2,000, you made 20x on your investment. If you bought bitcoin at $1,000 and sold it at $20,000, you made 20x on your investment. If you bought bitcoin at $10,000 and plan to sell it at $200,000, you will make 20x on your investment. Same result, regardless of price. Whether you have 100 BTC or .001 BTC, you get the same benefits as the price goes up. There’s a reason dollar-cost averaging works so well. You take price out of the equation. What you’re left with is the opportunity. Pure opportunity. Good things come to those who wait Instead of price, think about the risks and rewards. What do you stand to lose vs. what do you stand to gain? From September to December 2019 and March to October 2020, you had low-risk, high-reward opportunities to buy bitcoin. Anybody following had a chance to buy bitcoin (and altcoins) at a massive discount. my plan for bitcoin's bull market Those opportunities will come again. Bitcoin’s price will not go up forever. Eventually, it will hit a market cycle peak and crash 70-80% so you can accumulate bitcoin to your heart’s content. In between peaks, you usually get multiple drops of 40% or more. Those are perfect times to buy. The risks are low and the upside is literally infinite. Could we get one of those opportunities now? You bet. Even a drop to $18,000 would make a lot of sense. It would fit bitcoin’s historical price movements and align with typical crashes after strong moves in any asset, digital or real. We could also go straight up to $100,000. Don’t worry about the price. Wait for good opportunities, then act decisively. They come around maybe two to four times each year. Subscribe to my newsletter and you’ll know when those opportunities are. You'll also get an early warning for when we will approach the market cycle peak. Crypto is Easy When you wait until the market's zooming, you will always have the odds stacked against you. You will always have to play catch-up. And in the end, it won’t matter—up is up, 100% gains are 100% gains, and none of that depends on price. Why chase pumps and buy dips? Wait until the market turns in your favor, then load up. Reflect on your intentions While you’re waiting, think about why you’re in this market. Do you really want bitcoin, or do you want to sell it for more of your government’s money? Perhaps that’s a more important question than “what price should I buy bitcoin at?” Life will give you many, many chances to make money and build wealth. Crypto has already given you lots of those chances, too—and it will again. If you save your money and wait for those opportunities, you will not need to worry about anything that’s happening today. You will build wealth without the stress of crashes or concern about any movements in bitcoin’s price. If you just want to get more money as quickly as possible, there’s probably an online casino just waiting for your business. Have some fun there, then come back when you care about the revolution more than you care about your government’s money. Bitcoin will be here waiting for you—possibly with another opportunity of a lifetime. Mark Helfman publishes the newsletter. He is also a top bitcoin writer on and . His three books explore the social, cultural, and business challenges of cryptocurrency. Learn more about him in his . Crypto is Easy Medium Hacker Noon bio Originally published on . Voice.com

Bitcoin’s Price is Immaterial: Focus on Opportunities NOT Price

Did you see the CNN headline? “ “ Bitcoin plunges more than 20% in three days. It’s now in a bear market Uh huh. Chalk it up to an editor mistaking “bear” for “bull.” At least I hope so. People have started shouting “bull market” for only the past few months, but the truth is bitcoin’s been in a bull market for two years. Some things never change For almost all of 2020, I heard people talk about the bitcoin bear market. In January 2019, bitcoin’s price was $3,200. In January 2020, its price was $7,347. In January 2021, as of the day I wrote this, its price is $34,000. Does that sound like a bear market? Now, one dip and the whole thing’s coming to an end? This “crash” didn’t even break bitcoin’s parabolic uptrend. Look at the blue line, a projection of bitcoin’s price based on the past three months’ rise: Still on pace to hit $100,000 in mid-February. We could drop another 30% from today’s price and still match a typical bitcoin crash. That would mark a 40% drop from the recent peak of $41,000 and blend in with the price chart. Check out all the times bitcoin crashed 40% or more: Bitcoin’s price has fallen 40% many times—usually, on the way UP. What about an even bigger crash? Definitely possible. Look at the drops of 50% or more: Volatility does not mean doom That massive 2018 crash still lingers in people’s minds. These smaller, more recent drops only serve to reinforce the fear of another, bigger one. Could bitcoin go into another bear market now? Sure. All bull markets end eventually. A 25% drop will hardly end it. From today’s price, bitcoin’s price could drop 50% and remain in a healthy, long-term uptrend. And still people will not believe in this bull market. What will it take to convince them? When it all falls down The good thing is, whenever that bear market comes, another bull market will follow it. And just like in early 2019, nobody except you and I will notice until bitcoin’s price has gone so high, so far that it’s too late to catch up. Let’s not call for a bear market until we have some evidence. If you want that $1 million bitcoin everybody dreams about, you have to accept massive crashes along the way. Some crashes are setbacks, others cause actual bear markets. We have had a setback, but that does not mean the bull market has ended. Expect higher prices. And crashes. And, eventually, a bear market. Just not yet. Consensusland Bitcoin or Bust: Wall Street’s Entry Into Cryptocurrency Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also a top bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon . His books, and , explore the social, cultural, and business challenges of cryptocurrency. Learn more about him in his bio . Originally published on . Voice.com Disclaimer: The contents of this article are the opinion of the author alone and do not reflect the opinions of Hacker Noon as a whole. Nothing in this article constitutes professional investment advice. Please do your own research before making any trades.

Bitcoin Has Been in a Bull Market for 2 Years

With bitcoin’s price exploding and the total cryptocurrency market blasting through $1 trillion, you may think it’s getting big. Huge, even. Wall Street luminaries like Paul Tudor Jones and Jamie Dimon are telling people to buy bitcoin. Long-time skeptics like Nouriel Roubini begrudgingly admit it's a “partial store value.” S&P Dow Jones announced it will create crypto indices in 2021. Former bitcoin-basher JP Morgan is now building a book of business among crypto companies. Goldman Sachs formed a digital assets group. Fidelity has had one for almost two years. You ain’t seen nothing yet. A thimble’s worth of water in an ocean full of wealth Sometimes we look at crypto and see big numbers. For example, $700 billion bitcoin market cap, $25 billion in stablecoins, $15 billion in Graystone Bitcoin Trust, $20 billion assets on DeFi lending platforms, 100 million bitcoin wallets, 15 million active daily users of Brave browser, and so on. Once you start talking about millions and billions, it seems like the market is huge. For us, maybe. For the world, it’s not. Look at the numbers: More than for U.S. households alone. When you include savings from people in other countries, that amount goes much higher. $19 trillion in cash, savings, and money market accounts Over . $26 trillion in U.S.-registered investment funds More than $100 trillion in government debt. Over $200 trillion in corporate and household debt. At least $400 trillion in financial products like derivatives and collateralized loan obligations. Hundreds of trillions of dollars in real assets like property, cars, and collectibles. In total, over worth of “stuff” that you can record on a blockchain and exchange using cryptocurrency. $1 quadrillion If a $40,000 bitcoin seems crazy and all these altcoins seem overpriced, consider the bigger picture. So many ways to capture wealth Blockchain technology continues to scale and innovate. Some governments have already moved to digital currencies. Banks have quietly pocketed hundreds of blockchain patents. As everything moves to a natively digital environment, will capture its value, even if only as stablecoins or virtual representations of real-world assets. something Developers have already developed protocols that give users all the benefits of traditional finance with no commissions. As a result, they’re quietly building decentralized margin accounts, insurance funds, staking rewards, synthetic assets, liquidity pools, and  derivatives. And almost all of the benefits go to those who use these platforms and hold their associated tokens. No brokers, custodians, or investment firms taking a cut of their money. Over the long run, which service will win: the one that costs almost nothing and returns the benefits to users, or the one users have to pay for and keeps all the benefits for itself? In this inevitable future, traditional commerce can’t compete with these global, open, permissionless financial networks that record and track the movements of things with mathematical precision and no middlemen. “Value,” as measured in money, will have to move out of the traditional financial system and into cryptocurrency. Think about token sets and PIES, two types of computer programs that offer non-custodial access to diversified investment portfolios. Rather than pay somebody for access to investment funds, you buy a stake in a protocol that does all the work for you. Or, consider applications that maximize yield by moving unlimited amounts of money at virtually no cost. The catch: in order to do these things, you need some way to capture that value in a form that people can freely exchange with each other. In other words, you cryptocurrency. need When you anticipate everything will run on a blockchain within a few decades, a $1 trillion cryptocurrency market doesn’t seem like much Not just decentralized finance Decentralized finance, aka DeFi, will revolutionize financial markets. What about non-financial markets? For example, the world wastes a lot of energy. Some places produce more than they need while other places face chronic shortages. Once you tokenize energy consumption as a cryptocurrency, you can create secondary markets and new distribution channels. You can embed carbon emissions credits, rebates, and incentives into the tokens. Power plants and distributors can mint their own tokens when they create energy and burn those tokens as people consume energy. What about decentralized autonomous organizations for corporate and community assets? Security tokens for real estate development? With cryptocurrency, you have seemingly infinite ways to capture wealth. It’s just a matter of building the right platforms. Fortunately, we have a lot of people building those platforms. They toil in the shadow of bitcoin and DeFi, but their work will get its proper recognition. They’ve barely scratched the surface of what they can do. Slowly, then all at once If that seems like the pipe dream of some distant future, it’s a dream that’s getting built today. Once it’s ready, you’ll be surprised by how quickly it becomes a reality. Did you know that some of these DeFi projects spent three or more years in development before going parabolic? Progress sneaks up on you, sometimes. When I started writing , I consulted with a few projects, including Aave. At that time, they called themselves ETHLend. They had barely gotten started. Consensusland Who would have known they’d emerge as a top DeFi project two years later? It takes a long time to become an overnight sensation. Once it happens, everything changes. Despite bitcoin hitting new all-time highs, cryptocurrency is still a very small market. How big could it grow? The moon’s the limit. Mark Helfman publishes the newsletter. He is also a top bitcoin writer on and . His books, and , explore the social, cultural, and business challenges of cryptocurrency. Learn more about him in his . Crypto is Easy Hacker Noon Medium Consensusland Bitcoin or Bust: Wall Street’s Entry Into Cryptocurrency bio Originally published on Voice.com .

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