Voiceform

voiceform

Form builders are among the most popular WordPress plugins. There are dozens of them and with few having millions of active installations. Some of them are simple, while others are powerful no-code tools allowing you to build amazing functionalities through them. In this article, we will demonstrate how your users can access your forms through Amazon Alexa. For this example, we are using a form built with plugin (free version). Formidable Forms This article is followed by the attached Convoworks service and Formidable Form definitions, which you can import into your system. In the article itself, we will just cover how to enable the skill and point out a few important parts in it. Use case – Exercise Log Let’s say that you have a fitness website where your users can record their own activity and track progress. Now, instead of opening a web browser, your users will be able to save exercise results through the Amazon Alexa skill – using voice only. Besides adding a new log entry, the skill can give you information about the last exercise, it tracks your maximum distance, and you are able to delete the last entry. That way, we covered most of the form operations you need, and it should be rather easy to reuse examples in your own project. The example form we used for our skill is quite similar to the available in the plugin premium version. In our example, we skipped the date/time and the comment fields. We also changed field keys to be readable (instead of having hash as a key), and we used just plain textual fields. Exercise Log Form Template Prerequisites There are several things to check and set up before you continue. 1. Publicly accessible WordPress installation Your server has to be able to accept requests from Amazon. If you do not have a server on your own, you can use online WordPress testing tools like . The second option is to install a and use your local installation. InstaWP tunnel 2. Installed Formidable Forms plugin Just go to your plugin installer and add the Formidable Form Builder plugin. 3. Convoworks WP – Installed and connected to Alexa Please make sure that your Convoworks plugin is linked and that you are able to create Alexa skills. You can find more on that in the , or you can watch our video tutorial. Amazon Alexa platform configuration Connect to Amazon and create your first Alexa skill Import and configure Exercise log Alexa skill Few steps to import all definitions, and eventual configuration and make the skill work. 1. Import the exercise log form into the Formidable Forms You can import the attached xml form definition (below). To build this form we used regular text editors for all fields except the , which is a radio selector. When communicating with form builders, we prefer keys over ids. Keys are persistent, while ids will vary from installation to installation. Here are the form and field keys we used in our example. Form is , while fields are , , , , and . Activity exerciselog el_activity el_calories el_distance el_max_pulse el_rest_pulse Formidable Forms definition (XML) 2. Create Exercise Log Convoworks service Start a new service in Convoworks, and select option. Use the service definition you can download below. If your form uses different keys for form and fields, navigate to the view and adjust values. You might also consider adjusting values for the app name (if you changed it) and the test user. We’ll cover more on test user usage in section below. Import from file Variables Resolving the current user Convoworks service definition (JSON) 3. Connect it to Alexa and enable account linking Now go to in Convoworks. Check the option and disable the . Save and wait for a minute until the service is fully built on Amazon. Configuration / Amazon Alexa Enable Account Linking for Alexa Skill Allow users to enable skill without account linking 4. Link account in your Alexa app Open your , navigate to . Press on the Settings button and link account. By doing it, each request that comes through Alexa to our skill will have an OAuth token, which will enable us to authenticate the current user. Alexa app Your skills / Dev skills You can find more on it in our article. Amazon Alexa account linking Test your new Alexa skill If you have an Echo device, invoke the skill and try to use it. You can also try to test it through the . This way, you can “chat” with your skill using their Test view. ASK console You can also use Convoworks Test view, which is a handful tool because it allows you to peek into all variables existing during the current request execution. Few words about skill functionality. Skill distinguishes between first-time and returning users, so some responses are slightly different. To try again first time use, disable, and enable the skill again. You can just open the skill, and follow the workflow step by step. Alexa, open exercise log, You can add additional command while invoking the skill: . In this case, you will automatically be in the new entry workflow. Alexa, ask exercise log to record my running exercise Once you have entries, you can get more info on the last entry and the ability to delete it. You can ask for help. Few significant parts to check There are several parts in our service that you should check and get to know how to use. Some parts are related to the form data, while others are related to the general features you can use in Convoworks. 1. Initializing data When the skill starts, we want to do some checks and preload some data that will be required in our workflow. Navigate to the step in Convoworks editor and check the section. This flow is executed when skill is started (new session starts). It will be executed no matter if the skill is opened regularly (just invocation name) or with an additional command. As you can see we are using it to check the current user, load last entry data, and to initiate a new entry.Hint: You can click on a fragment name to navigate to its definition. Session start Pre-dispatch Flow 2. Resolving the current user Our service works only for known users, so in the fragment we are trying to load user data and if it fails, we are ending a session. element will load user data if the account is properly linked. Click on the element and check its help (on right side) for more details. Resolve user Init current auth user The if element at the beginning serves to enable ability to test skill even in Convoworks test view, which does not support account linking. We are checking against a predefined device id that comes with the request ( ). If we detect that it is a test view call, we are using the which can be adjusted in the variables view. admin-chat TEST_USER_ID Please note that the is stored in the session scope, meaning that it will be available through all subsequent calls. user_id 3. Formidable Forms context This is the actual adapter that enables us to use the Formidable Forms plugin. By entering and accessing data through a plugin infrastructure (instead of just performing SQL queries), we are ensuring that all plugin actions and filters will be applied. That way if you hook up some additional actions to your Formidable form, they will be triggered through Alexa skill, just as it would through the default web interface. Here we are setting the id for the context (so that other form elements are able to reference it), with which form we are working and the user id which will be used when creating entries. Check the component’s help to learn about some Formidable Forms specifics. 4. Loading the last entry For loading previous entries, we are using Search Form Entries element. Here we are filtering form entries created by the logged user and making sure that we load just a single, the last one. In case when there were existing entries, we are performing an additional query to get the maximum distance made in previous exercises. For that, we are using , a generic component for accessing any WordPress database table. Please note how we can reference the context and call methods on it – in this case, to get numeric ids from a given field and form keys. WP DB Element 5. Saving the form entry Through the conversation workflow, we are navigating through several steps and collecting data. Once the user confirms it, we can try to save it. We are doing that on the step using the element. Entry – Confirm Create Form Entry When you are gathering user data through the skill, you have to take care that the data is valid. If it is not, it might happen that the entry creation fails due the validation errors. In such a case, flow will be executed. Validation error 6. Deleting the form entry Our step informs the user that it can delete the last entry. For that we are using the element, which besides context id of the form plugin implementation, requires the id of the entry which will be deleted. Last exercise info Delete Form Entry After the entry is deleted, we will reload the last entry info and read that info back. 7. Global and local help We have one global, default help, which informs the user with basic instructions on how to use the skill. This definition can be found in step, which contains processors which should be always considered for the execution. Service processors However, you can find processors which are catching on the and steps. That means that if the user is on one of those two steps, it will trigger this local processor and not the one in service processors. HelpIntent Entry . Activity Entry . Pulse If you are using WordPress form builders, think of the use case which might be convenient to be used with voice. The one which you or your users would like to access often. The frequent use is ideal for voice. This example requires account linking, but you can create a skill that allows public access (e.g. school league results) or you can even ask users to access their Amazon profile data (name, email) and add to the mailing list. Of course, with their permission to do that. To find more about Convoworks forms package and philosophy behind it, at our at GitHub. Forms package for Convoworks If you have any problems or questions, drop a comment below or contact us through the contact form.

Using WordPress and Formidable Forms to Create your own Alexa Skill 

Natural Language Processing (NLP) has been a field of study for decades, but it has recently gained unprecedented attention due to rapid advancements in deep learning. involves using computers to interpret, understand, and generate human language. In its early days, NLP relied on rule-based systems, which were limited in their ability to handle the nuances of language. NLP However, with the advent of machine learning and deep learning, NLP has made significant strides in recent years. Today, from simple text conversations to advanced videos, the power of AI is constantly trending at the top of all our social media feeds. But what about the other side of the funnel? The AI images we come across in our feeds require terabytes of stock images to make it onto our screens. So how do we get from unique, human-made content to something developed by a computer? The Generative AI Revolution While natural language processing has received tons of attention in the field of AI, generative AI is also making great strides. From creating photorealistic images to writing entire news articles, generative AI has the potential to revolutionize the way we handle content. As this technology continues to develop, companies should feel obliged to integrate AI into their ways of working. By doing so, they can gain a competitive advantage by automating tasks and creating content at scale. However, it's important to approach this technology conscientiously, to make sure it’s being used by the right people for the right reasons. At , we believe in the power of AI to enhance and streamline workflows, but we also understand the importance of using this technology intentionally — making the best queries on the best data — with an action-oriented approach. Lettria The Importance of NLPs This is where NLP comes in, demonstrating where Lettria stands in the AI revolution. The online content that we create and inspire from our wider communities (emails, comments, reviews, voice recordings, etc.) can add up to insurmountable amounts of data. is impossible for a single person, even a large team. Taking a viewpoint that accounts for all this information Data Scientists develop NLP projects to analyze unstructured text data according to specifically calibrated parameters. They often spend many months refining these parameters and developing algorithms that are specifically calibrated to their datasets. The Challenges of NLP Projects Before data teams can even get to the point of annotating and querying their data, they have to compile everything into a single database — often taking into account multiple formats. These are just a couple of the many steps that experts must overcome in the early stages of their projects, and usually it requires multiple people with different skillsets, each working with separate coding languages and toolkits. From a business perspective, the resources required to deploy these in-depth projects can quickly get out of hand. As we often mention, 85% of NLP projects are destined to fail. From the cost of software solutions to the vast amounts of time our data teams require to develop a project pipeline, only 53% of these projects will make it from prototyping to production.¹ The Birth of Lettria A 2019 report by McKinsey & Company found that only 8% of companies were able to successfully scale AI across their organizations.² Lettria was conceived to address these problems by unifying all the siloed steps NLP projects historically require, and democratizing the project so that people from outside the data team can bring their insights, allowing for timelines to be shortened from many months to mere weeks. Since founding Lettria four years ago, the industry has grown, and we’ve adapted our software to think ahead and scale our solution in the direction that companies require. By developing an intricate understanding of the use-cases and applications that frequently inspire NLP projects, Lettria has streamlined the project pipeline to include the final steps and deliver crucial insights within the app. Lettria's Solution From capabilities that automatically scans audio transcripts for clients that deal with call-center data, to coordinating product catalogs so that e-commerce specialists can enhance their product catalogs to enable cross-sells, we’ve automated some of the most common needs that modern businesses face. Voice2CRM No-code platforms have become popular in recent years, and Lettria has taken this approach to enable collaborators with no programming experience to build complex applications, from management to production. It enables businesses to rapidly prototype, test, and deploy their product without the need for multiple developers — democratizing projects — by incorporating outside expertise and directly involving multiple departments in the pipeline. Lettria's Technical Expertise We’ve grown Lettria’s technical expertise over the 4 years of our startup’s history, integrating Linguists and Product Experts to give the most advanced solutions possible. Keeping up with innovative advancements in generative AI, Lettria’s development team is perfectly adapted to the latest trends in deep learning, enabling us to create models that outperform traditional NLP methods. Regarding output, we’ve developed solutions that allow users to automatically generate knowledge graphs and visualize insights, so that managers can rapidly deploy solutions and activate necessary actors in their organizations. We’ve also synchronized our software with your everyday essentials like Shopify, Salesforce and Tableau — allowing sales teams and business intelligence departments to leverage Lettria directly, without sacrificing any of the data team’s valuable time. From our newly revamped user experience to Lettria’s machine learning algorithms scaled hand-in-hand with our Linguistic team, deploying an NLP has never been simpler. Learn More About Lettria Read more about our linguistic work, success stories, and product development strategies on our website. Interested in seeing how our NLP software can work for you? . Get in touch and book a demo today 1. https://www.infoworld.com/article/3639028/why-ai-investments-fail-to-deliver.html 2. https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business Functions/McKinsey Digital/Our Insights/Getting to scale with artificial intelligence/Getting-to-scale-with-artificial-intelligence.ashx The lead image for this article was generated by HackerNoon's via the prompt "ai revolution". AI Image Generator

Meet Lettria: Our Place in the AI Revolution Begins with NLP

Conozca a Lettria: nuestro lugar en la revolución de la IA comienza con la PNL

Rencontrez Lettria : Notre place dans la révolution de l'IA commence avec la PNL

लेट्रिया से मिलें: एआई क्रांति में हमारा स्थान एनएलपी से शुरू होता है

Lettria の紹介: AI 革命における私たちの立場は NLP から始まります

Conheça a Lettria: nosso lugar na revolução da IA começa com a PNL

Gặp gỡ Lettria: Vị trí của chúng ta trong cuộc cách mạng AI bắt đầu với NLP

认识 Lettria：我们在 AI 革命中的地位始于 NLP

$SHIB: My Journey Through the Deepest Recesses & High Command of a $10 Billion Decentralized Army

The Fallout series depicts the future as a wasteland marred by nuclear war. In each game, players take control of a survivor exploring this wasteland in hopes of figuring out how to make a better life for themselves - and, optionally, other residents of the world. Much like , Fallout has built a vast world throughout its many titles. For anyone looking to catch up on the franchise’s lore, it would be useful to learn about the Fallout games in Chronological Order. The Elder Scrolls games All Fallout Games in Chronological Order Fallout 76 Fallout Fallout Tactics Fallout: Brotherhood of Steel Fallout 2 Fallout 3 Fallout: New Vegas Fallout 4 1. Fallout 76 - Early 2100s Fallout 76 is a first for the franchise in numerous aspects. It’s the first Fallout game to feature multiplayer, and it’s also the first Fallout to occur chronologically. Due to updates and alterations to Fallout 76, the game currently takes place from the year 2102 to 2104. Ironically, 76 is the latest major release for the series. As one might expect, this game is filled with references to the other titles. Characters and locations are given mentions, either through voicework or additional in-game text. These references are minor, pretty much serving only to bring a bit of fanservice to people that played those games. Fallout 76 might be the first game in the series’ timeline, but it’s hardly essential for anyone getting into the franchise’s lore. 2. Fallout - 2161 The true first game in the series, Fallout, is a top-down role-playing game set in the year 2161. With humanity having hidden within sheltered Vaults to avoid the world-shattering nuclear war, new problems begin to arise. In Fallout, the player - living in post-apocalyptic California - is tasked with finding a device to purify their Vault’s water system before their stockpile runs out. Due to its simplistic gameplay, one of the best-known traits of Fallout is its writing. There are many options a player will be forced to take and many actions the player can choose on their own. Some enemies can only be stopped through killing while others can be talked out of their ambitions. The series has changed quite a lot since this first game, but Fallout set the stage for what future games would become. 3. Fallout Tactics - 2197 As the name implies, Fallout Tactics moves away from any other game in the series by focusing on Real-Time Strategy gameplay. There are very few interactions with characters in the game, and the only objectives involve battling armies and leading squads. Even the canonicity of this game is debatable, but for considering that possibility. there is some precedent While not technically a main series game, Tactics gives some great insight into factions within the world of Fallout. In particular, the Brotherhood of Steel is featured heavily; that faction is the one that the player joins, after all. Interestingly enough, this wouldn’t be the last game to feature the Brotherhood in such a large capacity. 4. Fallout: Brotherhood of Steel - 2208 Taking place in the year 2208, Fallout: Brotherhood of Steel is the first Fallout game to feature combat closer to what the series is known for today. Instead of creating their own identity within the world, players choose from one of three characters to control as they travel through the wastes and fight against sadistic foes. This happens to be the last Fallout game made before the series was sold to Bethesda Softworks. There are numerous elements in Brotherhood of Steel that reference previous Fallout games. However, Brotherhood of Steel itself is not referenced by new titles in much capacity at all. This makes it another non-essential title for anyone looking to fully immerse themselves in Fallout’s lore…unless a new game is released that builds upon this one. 5. Fallout 2 - 2241 Fallout 2 is a direct sequel to the first Fallout game, taking place in the year 2241 and allowing the player to fill the shoes of the original protagonist’s descendant. The descendant is tasked with finding a special device that can create thriving communities, even in the tainted lands Fallout is known for. This game built off of the first, putting more emphasis on gameplay and giving players a much larger toolset to complete their goals. Fallout 2 is the last mainline title to follow the top-down RPG aesthetic of the first game. The original creators of Fallout, Interplay Entertainment, would go on to create the Tactics and Brotherhood of Steel spinoffs before selling the series to Bethesda. Both of the original mainline titles can still be considered canon, but the new games would move away from the old California setting. 6. Fallout 3 - 2277 As the first-ever First-Person Shooter of the series, Fallout 3 broke new ground for the franchise. It introduces more intricate characters and storylines on top of action-oriented gameplay. Players take control of The Wanderer, a Vault inhabitant on a search for their father. Numerous important plot elements make a return from Fallout and Fallout 2, culminating in an act of sacrifice that changes the wastelands forever. The drastic change in gameplay style made for some changes in how the story is presented, as well. Many characters can be spoken with or killed, exploration is even more vast than ever before, and a greater amount of voicework brings more personality to NPCs. This is when the new era of Fallout began, with nearly every major game taking cues from Fallout 3 as they created new locales and improved gameplay even further. 7. Fallout: New Vegas - 2281 Set in 2281, Fallout: New Vegas is the closest a spinoff has gotten to being considered a full mainline title. In New Vegas, the player - a courier on the verge of death - is thrust into a war between murderous factions trying to take control of the Mojave Desert. The apocalyptic wastelands of Fallout feel more lived-in than ever, with Vaults barely even showing up and numerous story elements of previous titles failing to make a return. New Vegas is somewhat of a standalone game due to its status as a spinoff. Knowledge of the Fallout series might be useful in getting used to this title’s world and story, but it’s also not required for anyone wanting to delve deeper into the franchise’s lore. Characters and locations are referenced in the more recent Fallout entries, however, so New Vegas might be worth a closer look for any story-obsessed fans. 8. Fallout 4 - 2287 The final game in the series’ timeline, Fallout 4, takes place in the year 2287. For the first time, players are able to interact with the world before it gets turned into a nuclear pile of dirt. Afterwards, they’re thrust into an unfamiliar land with the sole task of finding their missing son. This game features hundreds of callbacks to previous entries, and even gives players the chance to relive some familiar scenarios as they travel the wasteland. Fallout 4 continued to make improvements on the series’ gameplay, but many story elements were cut down as a result. It’s hard to say what endings in games post-Fallout 2 are truly canon, but there sadly isn’t much variety in how the player can truly personalize their experience in Fallout 4. If a new mainline entry to the series arrives, hopefully players can truly interact with the world in whatever ways they wish. Final Thoughts Fallout is an RPG, so it makes sense for players wishing to get into the series to play the games in chronological order. But with how much each game changes its mechanics, it might be better for a potential fan to simply start with whichever title best suits their playstyle. With how interconnected yet self-contained the stories can get, starting with a more recent entry can be just as easy for one person as starting with an older one can be for another. Also, check out, 1. 2. 3. The Wolfenstein Games in Chronological Order and Ranked by Sales | HackerNoon All GTA Games in Chronological Order: From Grand Theft Auto: London 1961 to GTA Online | HackerNoon The Ace Attorney Timeline: All Phoenix Wright Games in Chronological Order | HackerNoon

The Fallout Games in Chronological Order

Los juegos de Fallout en orden cronológico

Why Block.One which raised $4 Billion in ICO is now in a problem Block.one held an initial coin offering (ICO) of EOS tokens (EOS) in 2018, releasing 900 million tokens for approximately $4 billion, making it the largest ICO. Unfortunately, many people have been disillusioned with the company’s trajectory since then. Yves La Rose, the EOS Network Foundation’s (ENF) founder, disclosed that they are gearing up for legal action against EOS founders Block.one in a major milestone of the EOS ecosystem against creator’s tale. Concerns were made about whether ENF will carry out its warning, if they even have a case, or if ENF has a morally relevant authority to do so. However, if and when they do, would that be the best solution, considering B1’s experience with corporate lawsuits and the fact that it has perhaps one of the strongest defense attorneys in the industry? The EOS Network Foundation reported in a blog that several individuals of the EOS community are unhappy with Block.one. “Block.one has not kept its word regarding past promises and that both the community and individual EOS users have been harmed as a result.” The Foundation had previously publicized that it has been in talks with Block.one to identify a mutual understanding. Each party was involved in conversations in an effort to obtain a fair resolution. Block.one, on the other hand, has decided to walk away from the talks, according to ENF. Consequently, the EOS block producers determined that tenure for future EOS token revenues for Block.one should be frozen. La Rose called EOS a failed experiment a few months back. He stated it’s a bad monetary investment, highlighting the market cap and price reduction. He also claimed that the community had lost important developers and had switched its major focus area largely from blockchain innovation to asset management. The token sale was successful due to a barrage of marketing, enthusiasm, and velocity that pushed the price of EOS higher. Unfortunately, marketing and advertising began to decline soon after. B1 shifted its focus to forming a private firm and broadening its geographic reach. They claimed that a robust B1 would contribute to an enhanced EOS, but this never happened. Instead, the exact reverse has happened—unfulfilled promises, including the extravagant debut of Voice.com, followed by further unkept promises. Touted as a game-changing social networking service that would be developed on the EOS blockchain and reward EOS token holders, it was instead created on a private blockchain. La Rose commented: “We have been disappointed with Block.one’s reaction to our attempts to negotiate a solution following its failure to fulfill its commitments. As a result, we are exploring all possibilities to reach a resolution of this outstanding issue by other means.” People became interested in EOS because of B1’s claims to create the community and setting needed for the ecosystem to thrive. It’s safe to argue that EOS would have been in a stronger place today if they had accomplished so. It’s a viewpoint shared by a large number of people within the community. Negative thoughts about EOS significantly influence sentiment today, as evidenced by media and the internet. The ENF claims that individuals who already have put so much money and effort into EOS have been significantly damaged due to B1’s failure to implement. The manner in which B1 interacted with the EOS community has so far not helped matters. When discussing negotiations with the ENF and Brock Pierce, they have repeatedly and deliberately missed the chance to establish a fair and reasonable arrangement. They never interacted with the community, hardly attended to it, and turned down each request for a remark or an engagement. This carelessness sparked outrage in the community, prompting Block Producers to terminate B1’s EOS token vesting timeline. Ever since, the EOS community commenced on mapping its path ahead with a slew of new policies, financing, and rebrands, along with the takeover of EOSIO creation and implementation, new venture capitalists, providing funds for a myriad of task forces, acknowledgment grants, and newfound motivation. Gradually, all of the promises made by B1 are now being fulfilled as the EOS community regains command of its destiny. Catch all the breaking news, and Don’t forget to like the story! . Image credits: Dan Freeman Disclaimer: The purpose of this article is to remove informational asymmetry existing today in our digital markets by performing due diligence, asking the right questions, and equipping readers with better opinions to make informed decisions. The writer holds Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, Solana and Cosmos. The writer has a vested interest in the story.

The Curious Case of Block.One, The Company Behind the $4 Billion ICO 

From February to April 2020, everybody talked about the , a measure of bitcoin’s price across two timeframes displayed as lines on a chart. When the lines cross, bitcoin hits its peak and goes into a bear market. Pi Cycle Those lines crossed two weeks ago, just before bitcoin hit its all-time high of $65,000. And everybody said, “meh, it has to be wrong.” Denial? Is bitcoin on the wrong side of the slope? A Pi Cycle cross is supposed to be the signal for the market cycle peak. That signal flashed. Everybody dismissed it. What does that tell you about indicators? People will believe whatever they want, regardless of what the indicators say. I don’t make decisions based on the Pi Cycle but I like it because it serves as a nice, clean, easy-to-use catch-all for the various metrics that compare short-term price movements with long-term price movements. You can dig through a bunch of indicators or get the same info from the Pi Cycle quickly in one glance. Much easier to use the Pi Cycle. Dismiss it at your peril. When short-term movements go way more extreme than the general overall long-term trend, you need to pay attention. On the way up, you can notch that as one piece of data to suggest the market should fall (even though it might not). On the way down, you can use that as one more reason the market should rise (even though it might not). Just wait until bitcoin’s price drops to a seemingly impossible $26,000 and altcoins get slaughtered. Then everybody will look back and say “the Pi Cycle was right!” But will that be true? It’s right until it’s wrong Did you know there are at least seven Pi Cycle indicators? And they all cross at different times? In this video, a mathematician found seven other combinations of short- and long-term price movements that catch the market cycle peaks from very different directions. Maybe we’re looking at the wrong Pi Cycle? Or perhaps the Pi Cycle is not as much of a concern as everybody thinks? When this Pi Cycle crossed, we saw none of the other “peak” signals. Of all the data models people use to identify market cycle peaks, only the Pi Cycle triggered. (Technically, only one of the various permutations of the Pi Cycle triggered.) In other words, we didn’t come close to a “peak” signal on MVRV, Reserve Risk, 2-year Moving Average Multiplier, Puell Multiple, Logarithmic Growth Curves, Stock to Flow, S2Fx, Golden Ratio, rHODL, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or countless other metrics of previous market cycle peaks. Sometimes, the market just gets ahead of itself. Bitcoin’s price can drop 50% or more in the middle of larger uptrends. We’ve seen that happen more often than we’ve seen a Pi Cycle cross! Altcoins can fall even further — sometimes even in the middle of a raging altseason, as we’ve seen in recent months. The difference is, they recover fairly quickly during the zooms of altseason. During the lulls, they can take weeks or months to get back to even. Complacency Kills While it’s safe to say $65,000 is not the peak of the market, that doesn’t mean we can’t drop before we resume our path to that peak. a lot This is a volatile market full of massive risks and massive rewards. When the upswings bring 10x gains and the downswings bring 80% losses, buying and selling at the wrong time can hurt you. That’s the nature of investing — you will never get the timing just right. You can, however, position yourself to benefit from shifts in momentum and sentiment. Your true enemy is complacency. Bad decisions hurt, but complacency kills. On the Wall Street cheat sheet, complacency comes right after a market cycle peak. Of all the data models we have for bitcoin’s bull and bear market triggers, Pi Cycle is the only one that triggered “bear market.” While it’s hard to believe the only metric that triggered is the only metric that’s right, perhaps it’s worth taking a moment to ask: what if Pi Cycle really the true measure? is At the very least, that might force us to consider all possibilities, not just the ones that you to be true. want Mark Helfman publishes the newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on and . Learn more about him in his . Crypto is Easy Medium Hacker Noon bio Originally published on Voice.com .

Pi Cycle Says Bitcoin’s Bull Market Just Ended (and Nobody Cares)

In a recent article, , I projected market expectations for bitcoin’s price into the future and compared the results to historical indicators of market cycle peaks. The End of The Bitcoin Bull Market As We Know It Guess what? If those expectations come true, bitcoin's bull market will peak this month at approximately $90,000, give or take $10-15k. Yes, that means the market cycle peak will come this month and possibly not break $100,000. (Early May works, too.) That may sound like poppycock because bitcoin recently broke out of a bullish trading pattern in the middle of a parabolic run after completing its record-tying sixth straight month of higher prices. The last two times it did that, its price doubled over less than a month. Altcoins have started to run hard and everybody says institutional money's pouring into the market. While the price has gone sideways for the last month or so, the experts say that's a healthy consolidation before the next leg up. That's my point. Everything's moving too hard, too fast, and if that continues, we will soon see all the signals of a market cycle peak. I lay out the argument in the article linked above. Mark, you’re nuts. Stock-to-Flow says there’s no way that can happen Yes, Stock-to-Flow predicts bitcoin’s price will reach $82,000 in June and stay above $100,000 from July to eternity. Look at this chart, courtesy of : LookIntoBitcoin Do you see the squiggly line at the bottom? That shows you how much bitcoin’s price has strayed from Stock-to-Flow’s predictions over time. When the squiggly line hits the flat black line, that means bitcoin's price is aligned with Stock-to-Flow. As the squiggly line moves away from the flat black line, that means bitcoin’s price is deviating from Stock-to-Flow. You can see it more clearly on this chart from : Glassnode Bitcoin’s price has gone 4x higher and 70% lower than Stock-to-Flow for weeks at a time, and sometimes spends at prices +50% below and +2x higher than the model predicts. months The new version of Stock-to-Flow, , offers a similarly wide range of prices that fit the model. S2Fx We’ve done it before There’s no reason bitcoin's price can’t zoom to $90,000, hit a market cycle peak, crash to $30,000, then go up to $100,000 later this year. Maybe instead of a bull market that looks like 2016–2017, we get a bull market that’s more like 2013: a market cycle peak in April to cap off a long bull run, followed by a massive crash, then a few months of Silicon Valley FOMO that sent prices even higher. Both Stock-to-Flow and its updated version, S2Fx, say we can do that. There’s also no reason bitcoin's price can’t chill around $40–60k for a few months — or even crash down to the $20,000s from here. We’ve seen bitcoin make those types of moves in the middle of raging bull markets, all within the range of prices you get with Stock-to-Flow and S2Fx. While that would take a lot of people by surprise, bitcoin's price has dropped 50% or more in each of the past three years and all of those drops fit into Stock-to-Flow, too. Unless Stock-to-Flow is not very good at predicting bitcoin’s price . . . Mark Helfman publishes the newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on and . Learn more about him in his . Crypto is Easy Medium Hacker Noon bio . Originally published on Voice.com

Bitcoin’s Price Peak Is Coming This Month - Stock-to-Flow Says . . .

I wrote three books about bitcoin and publish a newsletter about cryptocurrency. I'd love for bitcoin's price to reach the lofty expectations everybody else seems to have. When you look at the data, trends, and patterns of behavior we saw as bitcoin’s price approached its four previous market cycle peaks, you will see the same things today as you did for each of those other times. Sure, it's cooled off for the past two weeks, but the trajectory hasn't changed. Still parabolic and coming out of a bull flag. The last time bitcoin did this (February), its price doubled. The time before that (December), its price tripled. If bitcoin comes even close to those targets in April, its bull run will end. I realize that seems crazy. On March 11, 2021, I published going deep into the data and correlations. I summarize them below and recommend you read that other post for a more nuanced and informative explanation. This article hits only the high notes. a detailed post for subscribers of my Crypto is Easy newsletter Also, make sure you caught my post from last month, . Bitcoin’s Market Cycle Peak is a Lot Closer Than You Think Mark, don’t even bother. Institutions will never let that happen! Yes, some say institutions will never let the price crash. No more bear markets. Only up forever. They’re all FOMOing in, buying up even the slightest dip. “Wall of institutional money.” Sounds great. To sustain this bull market, we need institutions to HODL, not just buy. After all, they can’t push prices higher when they’re selling their bitcoin right after they get it. Look at the realized cap HODL waves, which show the movements of bitcoin among older and newer wallets based on the value of the bitcoins that move. Unlike the HODL waves you’re probably used to, this metric quantifies the influence those HODLers have on the market. Rather than calculate a percentage of people or wallets, it calculates the percentage of bitcoin’s market value. We know institutions accumulated a lot of bitcoin from September to December. If they’re still HODLing that bitcoin, we should see it reflected in some growth in the band that represents people who acquired bitcoin in the past 3–6 months. As of mid-March 2021, we didn’t see that at all. In fact, we saw a steep dating back months. drop This chart lumps all the short-term HODLers, people who’ve had bitcoin for three months or less. Blue circles are market cycle peaks. Those shorter-term bands keep widening, resulting in spikes on this chart. You can see the spikes lead to market cycle peaks. As you can tell from the arrow, this most recent spike is approaching (but not quite at) levels we only see at market cycle peaks. As I explained in previous updates, it’s unlikely institutions or their custodians are moving money from old wallets to new ones within their own portfolios, at least not in any significant amount. In other words, those short-term bands are not rising from big HODLers moving to newer wallets that they control. Rather, they’re shipping off their bitcoin to somebody else. Certainly, institutions are HODLing. It’s just not enough to change the trend. some Yea, but money’s pouring into Grayscale and the ETFs! It was until February. Since then, have fallen off a cliff and even went negative in March. flows into Grayscale bitcoin trust Flows into the Purpose bitcoin ETF have dried up, too — from to an average of 200 or less since then. On top of that, 3iQ sold some bitcoin from its fund. 2,200 bitcoins on the first day That signals fatigue or disinterest among institutional investors and traditional retail speculators, at least in the very short-term. (Yes, NYDIG says it has a few billion dollars of institutional money lined up. For a $1 trillion asset like bitcoin, a billion dollars doesn’t seem like enough to move the market.) Ok, that doesn’t matter, that data models predict higher prices for longer Sure, depending on which model you pick. S2F, expanding cycles, hash cycles, four-year cycles, halving cycles, the list goes on. There’s a model for every outcome you want to see, and they all disagree with each other. While I don’t make decisions based on data models, I found a few that fit my bias. They all tell us the market’s approaching its peak. , a mathematical formula that maps the intersection of two specific moving averages. When those averages converge, the market is near its peak. Today, those averages are 5% apart and getting closer with each passing day. All four previous times we saw that pattern, the market peaked within weeks. Pi cycle , a line bitcoin breaches only when it reaches market cycle peaks. We’re very close to breaching that line. Two-year moving average multiplier , an algorithm that marks the big peaks. When bitcoin’s price hits the top of the curve, it signals the absolute peak and triggers deep, long bear markets. If bitcoin’s price remains on this trajectory, we will hit the top of that curve in a month. Logarithmic growth curve . Whenever bitcoin’s price goes above that line, it hits a market cycle peak. That line projects to hit the top of the logarithmic growth curve at the same time as you would expect the lines of the Pi cycle to converge. Golden ratio multiplier All of these signals meet next month at a price of roughly $90,000. For this summary, I’ll overlap all of them on one chart so you can see the trajectory: In my longer update, I delve into this data more deeply. Really interesting stuff. Bottom line? Every time we see those signals converge, we get a crash of +77% and a bear market. Coincidences! Anybody can pick whatever data they want Yes. Anything you can do, I can do better 😉 I don’t offer predictions or statistical proof, just food for thought. The more coincidences you see, the more likely it is that they mean something. We’re long overdue for a severe crash (not a dip) or at least a long consolidation, and maybe we will get that before the market cycle peak. If so, you can throw out all this data. Bitcoin will crash, the market will reset and lay a strong foundation for that big, long bull market that everybody expects. Without that crash or multi-month consolidation, we will head to the market cycle peak a lot sooner at a much lower price than you expect. But the bull market just started Are you sure? Bitcoin’s price has gone up for more than two years. In January 2019, it was $3,200. In January 2020, it was $7,000. In January 2021, it was $25,000. On those dates, the total altcoin market was $37 billion, $53 billion, and $215 billion. Higher each year. We’ve been in this bull market for a while, even if it hasn’t felt like one or it hasn’t met the dictionary definition of “bull market.” Now, the momentum has shifted. This plane’s running out of fuel. It’s ok to refuel Do you want to hop on a plane when it’s already running out of fuel? Or do you want to wait until it lands so you can fill up the tank and then start zooming again? Bitcoin’s price can go a lot higher, but it needs to land and refuel. Otherwise, it will crash. Not a 30% crash like we’ve seen so many times. Not even a 50% crash like we got in 2020 and 2019. A far bigger crash. We still have room to run. You can realistically double your portfolio in a month or two, and if you have a lot of altcoins, you could do even better. That’s an opportunity you can’t get in any other market. At great risk, though. HODLers don’t care Long-term, none of this matters. Bitcoin’s price will almost certainly go way higher in the future than it is today. If you’re willing to HODL the peak and wait six months to three years for your investment to get back to even, then you don’t have to worry about a thing. No matter what happens in the coming months, you’ll be fine in the long run. For me, that’s a big risk to take and a long time to wait. I don’t want to be underwater for that long. You probably don’t, either. It’s different this time No. If we keep this pace, we will soon reach the same place we’ve been four times before, with each market cycle. Four times. Same patterns, Same relationships. Same things we see at the end of each market cycle. It’s not different. It’s not different at all. It’s exactly the same. Why should we expect a different outcome? Mark Helfman publishes the newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on and . Learn more about him in his . Crypto is Easy Medium Hacker Noon bio Originally published at . Voice.com

The End of The Bitcoin Bull Market As We Know It

In my newsletter, , I look at big trends, not the day-to-day movements of prices. Crypto is Easy There’s never a bad time to buy bitcoin, but some times are better than others. It’s more about knowing the risks and opportunities and making a decision that feels good to you. What’s your timeframe? Tolerance for risk? Mindset? What do you want to get out of the market? Even though bitcoin's price has cooled off for the past two weeks, it remains on course to reach $100,000 by May 2021. Will it continue that course? We’ll see. It’s realistic to expect bitcoin's price will go up for another month or two, hit its market cycle peak, then drop significantly. Like, 60-80% or more. It’s also realistic to expect a pretty major crash now, or at least a few months of consolidation while the market settles down. It’s not realistic to expect the price to keep going up at this pace through the end of the year, even though everybody seems to think it will. Strength is fleeing the market Everybody's talking super-cycle and last chance and this thing will never crash and institutions buy every dip. We don't have any evidence of that. From previous updates, we know 2021’s ascent is being driven by retail investors—people like you and me. Grayscale net flows have dwindled for weeks. aSOPR, a measure of market sentiment, remains above its 1 baseline, suggesting people do not care about their bitcoins very much and will more readily trade them for something else. Realized cap HODL waves show the same movements we see as bitcoin approaches a market cycle peak, with long-term HODLers abandoning their bitcoins to short-term HODLers and those short-term HODLers shuffling their new bitcoins to even more-recent buyers. You can see this in the chart below, which lumps short-term HODlers into colored bands. The shortest-term HODLers, 24 hours or less, are at the bottom and 1-3 month HODLers are at the top. The peaks are circled. These HODL bands spiked up a lot in 2021, approaching mid-70% and getting closer to previous market cycle peaks. These short-term HODL bands keep growing. If institutions are really HODLing, we should see these bands level out or drop as institutional bitcoins go to older HODL bands at the top of the chart, not newer ones at the bottom. But we don’t see that. Instead, we see bitcoins continuing to flow to newer wallets. As I've shown in previous updates, it’s unlikely those moves correspond to institutions or their custodians moving bitcoins around within the same portfolio, e.g., from large wallets to small wallets, old wallets to new ones. At least, if they're doing that, they're not doing much of it. Maybe institutions and corporations simply don't hold enough bitcoin to change the trajectory of the market? We shall see. Meanwhile, I’m not buying or selling. Just sticking to my plan. My Plan for Bitcoin's Bull Market As soon as my plan signals to buy or sell, I will let you know. Watch my most recent updates for more about the data and trends. Long Bitcoin But Beware The Super-Cycle Update for February 25, 2021 Update for February 18, 2021 My plan is not a trader’s plan. It’s focused on making the most of this bull market, buying when the price is not likely to go much lower for much longer and very likely to go up forever. Altseaz'n? Altcoins have kept pace with bitcoin as both fell. Look at the highlighted circle in this chart of bitcoin dominance, you can see the altcoins’ proportion of the market held as bitcoin’s price rose and fell during mid-January and February. This is not a price chart, it simply measures the percentage of the total crypto market cap that’s captured as bitcoin. In the past, when alts hold their portion while bitcoin fell or went sideways, the entire altcoin space went as soon as bitcoin’s price turned around. nutz We just need to see whether bitcoin’s price turns around. Does this mean altseason's over? No. In fact, bitcoin's lull has altcoins from zooming. No matter how strong the trends and tailwinds, we can't have altseason unless bitcoin goes up. Bitcoin always leads, altcoins always follow. kept Suffice to say, altcoins have bitcoin on the way up and kept pace with it on the way down. Assuming that trend continues, you can expect a massive boom for altcoins as soon as bitcoin turns around. outpaced Down, then up? A nosedive would be great. That would give the market a chance to reset, laying a strong foundation for even bigger growth. That can’t happen if bitcoin continues its current pace. If bitcoin continues to double/triple in price, then drop 25% before going up again, it will reach $90,000 by May 2021. If that happens, we will see the most accurate top indicators, Puell Multiple and MVRV Z-Score, signal “sell” and the entire market will hit its cycle peak soon after (likely higher than $90,000). After that, bitcoin will have a huge crash. Yes, the data models predict a different outcome on a different timeframe. Stock-to-flow, hash cycles, halving cycles, four-year cycles, expanding cycles, etc. Those models all contradict each other. As my friend says, there are no good models but some are useful. For those who prefer data models instead of my on-chain analysis, look at the logarithmic growth curve model. That model fits this scenario. I prefer analytics that reflect what people do with bitcoin, not projections into the future. As a result, I'm don't make any decisions on data models. It's just nice to know one of the models fits my analysis. Never below $40,000 again? It’s hard to feel good about the market when we see the momentum turning against us. Crypto prices can still go way, way higher long after strength departs. It takes a while for reality to catch up to the market. My gut, personal feeling, looking at the data and reflecting on my own experience when I entered this market in November 2017? It's just uncanny some of the similarities. Same chatter, same sentiment among OGs, same on-chain metrics, same comments on Twitter and YouTube. People who refused to buy at $5,000 piling in at $50,000. Shills, pump-and-dumps, "I don't know what this does but I bought it," and the same patterns in on-chain movements of bitcoins. Eerily similar. In November 2017, crypto was just on the precipice of that explosion you probably remember. Prices had already gone up a lot but it wasn't (yet) all over the mainstream news, just an article here or there or maybe a segment on the occasional newscast. From an investment perspective, that was a terrible time to enter the market. In hindsight, I would never have entered if I knew then what I know now. Do you really want to hop on the plane when it's already running out of fuel and the forecast calls for storms? Or would you rather wait until it lands and hop on after it has a full tank and clear skies ahead? Price lags momentum You can't deny the opportunity is here, now, as it was in November 2017. Without a deep crash or long, sideways consolidation, this market is heading to a big, blow-off top sooner and at a lower price than most people expect. Only a nice, healthy crash or extended sideways move can stop that from happening. Here’s the thing: Price usually lags momentum. We can see momentum in the data I look at. That momentum is fading. When bitcoin’s price drops, strength builds. Eventually, it builds and builds until the market explodes. As the price goes parabolic, weakness builds. Eventually, the bottom falls out. Rinse and repeat. Those are your market cycles. Yes, we could see bitcoin's price double or triple in the coming weeks. Altcoins will do multiples better. That's realistic. Just be careful out there. We’ve gone up very quickly. What goes up must come down. Not usually or sometimes, but always. a lot Always. The only question is how high do we go before we fall, or did we already start the drop? Time will tell. Relax and enjoy the ride! Mark Helfman publishes the newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on and . Learn more about him in his . Crypto is Easy Medium Hacker Noon bio Also published on Voice.com .

Bitcoin's Market Cycle Peak is a Lot Closer Than You Think

In 2017, I bought XRP at $.20 and watched it go to $3 in one month. One month. One. Month. 1,500% in ONE month. I sold half at $3, the rest at $2.50, and thought I was a genius. Only much later did I realize the real geniuses bought it at $.005 and sat on 4,000% gains . before catching another 1,500% on top of that And you think LINK is expensive at $30 and $13 billion market cap? Do you know what XRP’s market cap was when I bought it? $11 billion. That was in November 2017, when the overall crypto market and capital flows were much smaller. Now, the market is much bigger and money is far more abundant. Do you still think we can’t see a $300 LINK token? It’s altseason. It can definitely happen. Altseason: A Brief and Beautiful Thing At some point, the entire market crash. It’s inevitable. will Not a routine 30 – 40% drop, but a big one, probably 60 – 70% or more, with some altcoins going even lower. Until then, altcoins will zoom. ZOOM. As a result, you now have opportunities to make fast money. massive If you’re good and lucky, you can realistically pull off 300% swing trades at will, and possibly do even better. Even just HODLing what you already have, 300% is realistic. Those gains are typical of every altseason. If anything, that’s a low expectation. Many altcoins have gone up 300% this year. already Get it While You Can! Unless we get a very big drop in bitcoin’s price a long sideways move, we will reach our market cycle peak soon. or At that point, the market will force you to sell to protect your investments from greedy people who will crash the market. Once you see the signs of the market cycle peak, you will get out before the party ends. You don’t have much time. Either we get a very nice, healthy drop soon, or we get a massive parabolic rocket ship blast-off to the market cycle peak. Now or in a Few Months If you only want to make fast money in crypto, you need to act urgently. That’s not my thing — I’m a tortoise, not a hare — but I wouldn’t assume this mania will last for the rest of 2021. In fact, we have a lot of evidence to suggest it won’t last much longer. After the crash, once the hype dies down and everybody has a chance to suss out the winners and losers, you will have opportunities to make slow, easy money. If you’re patient and savvy, you can realistically pull off 3,000% gains. Possibly, even better. massive But you will have to wait for it. I’m Sitting on My Hands As for me, I’m not doing anything. The best opportunities come when the market is boring and scary, not when everything’s hyped and prices are zooming. Does that mean I’m missing out on juicy gains? Am I lame for not getting into the latest DeFi coin? Probably. Actually, I’m almost certain I’m missing some short-term money-making opportunities. My goal is to make the most of this bull market. I did that. I spent three years building a portfolio. I already found some moonshots. I feel fortunate that I’m in a position to chill and let the market do its thing. I don’t need to add more risk and spend more time and money chasing altcoins. If you subscribed to for long enough, you did, too. Some of my specific altcoin recommendations have already delivered 1,000% gains. Most are up 500% or more. Crypto is Easy We got in early. No reason to play catch-up or ape into the latest governance token. Enjoy this moment. In a few months or less, everything will change, as it did in the fall of 2020, winter of 2019, all through 2018, and twice during 2017. Nothing lasts forever. Make sure you’re ready for when it ends. That’s when the opportunities come. real Mark Helfman publishes the newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top bitcoin writer on and . Learn more about him in his . Crypto is Easy Medium Hacker Noon bio Originally published on Voice.com .

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