Trump has threatened a 10% levy from 1 February - but his campaign included 60% tariffs against Chinese imports.

Trump tariffs and China: Businesses brace for impact

China's businesses brace for impact of Trump tariffs

levy

Scientific American, Volume XXIV., No. 12, March 18, 1871 by Various, is part of the HackerNoon Books Series. You can jump to any chapter in this book . Unpleasant Discovery in the Patent Office—Levying Black Mail. here Unpleasant Discovery in the Patent Office—Levying Black Mail. "The Patent Office has been, during the past week, in a high state of excitement, occasioned by the discovery of the operations of E. W. W. Griffin, clerk in charge of the draftsmen's division, who, it appears, has been levying black mail on the lady employés of the office, for nearly two years. During the administration of Colonel Fisher, late Commissioner of Patents, a large number of ladies were employed, for the purpose of recopying drawings, when ordered by the inventors, of patents already on file. "These ladies were placed under charge of Griffin, with power to retain them in office so long as their services were satisfactory. It has been proved that Griffin hired the ladies at regular salaries of $1,000 per annum, the most of whom he blackmailed to the amount of $400 per year each. It is estimated that he has made $1,000 per month for the past two years. "The matter was brought to the notice of Commissioner Duncan, and an investigation ordered, which resulted in the dismissal of Griffin. "It is thought that there are other cases of this kind, and the Commissioner expresses his determination to ferret them all out, and make a clean sweep of all parties in his department engaged in swindling operations, against the government or against individuals. "The Patent Office has for a long time been considered a rich field for operations of this kind, and investigations have often been suggested, but passed unheeded by the proper authorities. "It is openly stated that an investigation into the relations existing between certain examiners of patents and certain patent agents, would disclose a more fearful state of blackmailing than exists in all the other government departments combined." [We find the above sensational paragraph among the recent Washington items of the . We are in a position to say that "the high state of excitement" alluded to has existed only in the brain of the newspaper correspondent. The facts, in brief, are these: In July, 1869, a lady, and wife of one of the clerks in the draftsmen's room, made application to Commissioner Fisher for a position in the copying division of the same department; and, upon the urgent solicitation and recommendation of Mr. E. W. W. Griffin, chief of the division, she was appointed, and has held the position from that time until now, receiving as salary $1,000 per annum, which, with the full knowledge of her husband, she has divided with Griffin, in consideration of his services in procuring for her the appointment. About a month ago, one of the lady's friends got hold of the matter, and reported it to the Court, which resulted in an investigation and the subsequent dismissal of Griffin. This is the only case of the kind that we have heard of, and we have no reason to believe that there is any other, or that corruption exists in the Examining Corps, as alleged. Evening Mail —Eds. of testing the purity of samples of water, by watching the rapidity of its action on soap and similar compounds, has been introduced by the French , MM. Boutron and Boudet. The experiment tests, at the same time, the purity of the soap. Dissolved in water in which lime is held in solution, the soap is precipitated in hard white flakes. If the quantity of soap put in the lime water be noted, it will be found that the smaller the quantity producing precipitation, the purer the soap. The (of Paris) reports some experiments, on this subject, by M. F. Schulze. A method savants Journal de Pharmacie et de Chemie .—The fifth State fair of the Mechanics, and Agricultural Fair Association of Louisiana will commence in the city of New Orleans, on Saturday, April 8, 1871, and continue nine days. Over $20,000 in premiums are offered. Rules, regulations, and schedule of premiums may be obtained of the Secretary and Treasurer, Luther Homes, Esq., New Orleans, La. Louisiana State Fair .—John Kent advertises, in this paper, valuable machinery for the manufacture of knitted goods, to which we invite the attention of all who are interested in this branch of industry. Mr. Kent has devoted many years to the perfection of these machines. Knitted Goods , a white clay, used largely in the adulteration of flour, starch, and candles, is found near Augusta, Ga., and is sent to the Northern States in large quantities. Kaolin We are indebted to James Vick, practical florist, Rochester, N. Y., for a choice variety of flower seeds. About HackerNoon Book Series: We bring you the most important technical, scientific, and insightful public domain books. This book is part of the public domain. Various (2006). Scientific American, Volume XXIV., No. 12, March 18, 1871. Urbana, Illinois: Project Gutenberg. Retrieved https://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/19180/pg19180-images.html This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included with this eBook or online at , located at . www.gutenberg.org https://www.gutenberg.org/policy/license.html

Unpleasant Discovery in the Patent Office—Levying Black Mail

Scientific American Supplement, No. 392, July 7, 1883 by Various, is part of the HackerNoon Books Series. You can jump to any chapter in this book . CAOUTCHOUC. here CAOUTCHOUC. A. Levy contributes the following brief account of this subject to the : Moniteur Scientifique The crude gum cut in irregular strips is passed five or six times between two strong rolls sixteen inches in diameter, and making two or three revolutions per minute. These rolls are kept wet by water trickling on them. This broad strip of gum is perforated with foreign substances and looks like a sieve. It is next put in the cutting machine, a horizontal drum provided with an axle having knives on it. So much heat is produced by this cutting that the water would soon boil if it were not renewed. A second machine of this kind completes the cutting and subdividing, and expels the air and water from it. The mass is then pressed in round or quadrangular blocks. The vulcanization of thin articles from one twenty-fifth to one-sixteenth inch thick, is done by Parkes' patented process, that is, dipping it in carbon disulphide for a short time, to which chloride or bromide of sulphur has been added, and when the solvent has evaporated the sulphur remains behind. Balls, ornamental articles, and surgical apparatus are dipped into melted sulphur at 275° or 300° Fahr. The third most important process consists in mixing in the sulphur mechanically with the gum in the cutting machine. After the pieces have received the form they are to have they are heated with steam or hot air to 275°. Flat articles are vulcanized between press plates heated by steam. This vulcanization is said to have been discovered accidentally by searching different colored stuffs, some of which were dyed yellow with sulphur; the latter stood well. Hard rubber contains more sulphur, and is heated longer and higher. Small or fine tubes and hose are made by a continuous machine that presses it through a hole with a core to it. Large hose is made by wrapping strips around iron rods or tubes. The little air balloons are made in Paris (their value is $300,000) by Brissonet from English Mackintosh cloth. Powdered soapstone is strewed over it in cutting. The edges are united by hammering on a horn anvil, or by machinery through simple adhesion, and the cut surfaces are smooth. About HackerNoon Book Series: We bring you the most important technical, scientific, and insightful public domain books. This book is part of the public domain. Various (2005). Scientific American Supplement, No. 392, July 7, 1883. Urbana, Illinois: Project Gutenberg. Retrieved https://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/8742/pg8742-images.html This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included with this eBook or online at , located at . www.gutenberg.org https://www.gutenberg.org/policy/license.html

Levy contributes the following brief account of this subject 

Every entrepreneur knows that speed is key to a startup’s success. From implementing agile methods to honing a fast-paced workspace culture, moving at a fast rate is paramount to test assumptions, develop resilience, and be 5 steps ahead of the competition. On today’s episode of Startups On Demand, I am joined by , General Partner at , a pre-seed & seed-stage venture firm partnering with the world's top Founders. Gigi Levy Weiss NFX Today, we talk about the tactics of managing one’s busy schedule, developing a laser-focus attitude, and the importance of speed to skyrocket a startup’s trajectory. Omri: How do you manage your day, having such a busy schedule? Take me to your day-to-day routine. Gigi: There’s a bunch of things that have worked for me over the years. The first thing is that I try to be super effective in meetings. The average meeting that I have is either 30 or 45 minutes. I generally believe in meetings being short, brief, and to the point. I also believe that when I have a meeting, I’m trying to get the information beforehand so I can read it and come prepared. I really don’t like meetings where the purpose is just to give me an update from the company or something that I could’ve read before. So many times, I would tell the founder “if you’re just gonna run me through the numbers, just send it over so I can save your time.” The second thing is that if the meeting isn’t going well, I would just cut it. I don’t want to be disrespectful to somebody else’s time by continuing a meeting that isn’t going anywhere. Third, we have automated many of our processes, so a lot of the things that used to take time, have gone automated. For example, I met a company and I wrote a summary. And now I want another one of my partners to meet the company – rather than me now having to write an email, I would go to our own CRM to our company page, I would click on “next partner meeting,” and would choose a partner. This would automatically create an email to my partner saying what it is that I’ve seen, and why I want him to see it. And with another click, this would send an intro between him, the company, and his PA, with all the options of setting up the company automatically. So that just took away what used to take me 5 to 10 minutes, and now it just takes a second. Omri: Do you have a separate to-do list on top of your current system? Gigi: I have this thing where 99% of the tasks that I have, I would insist on doing them immediately. For example, I have a meeting with a company and we decide to connect that company with a customer. I can put it on my to-do list, but that’s probably going to wait on my list for the weekend, which means that the company has now lost a few days. So what I would do is I would take 5 minutes from that meeting and write introductions immediately so the company can get out and start working on it. So rather than pushing things away from my to-do list, I try to finish these tasks immediately. https://youtu.be/sKqoGP0Pv7g?embedable=true Omri: How does a startup know that they’re running fast? Gigi: I think it’s really hard to know whether they’re fast or not. One of the reasons that investors like investing in people are not necessarily because they’re the best companies, but because they’ve seen what “fast” looks like. They see what it means when things just run super fast. Many of us are slow because we’re trained to be slow. School, for example, is 12 years – you don’t really need 12 years for school, right? University is 4 years – you can study it in 1 year. In jobs, they tell you to stay between 2 and 3 years, but you could actually move faster. It’s what’s comfortable for them, not what’s good for you. So we’ve been trained by everybody to a certain level of speed, but startups require a totally different level of speed, and so many times, my contribution to a company is just by reflecting on them and telling them that they’re not moving fast enough. Sometimes, it’s as easy as that to make them snap out of their state of mind. Omri: You’ve been a pilot before. What are some tactics from the air force that helped you develop a laser-focus attitude? Gigi: The most important thing I learned from the Israeli air force is the learning organization. Basically, the Israeli air force is known for allowing people to learn more with fewer flight hours. And the way you do it is by having a very vicious cycle of the , and so on, which focuses on getting you to be better with the least possible time. Over the years, I learned that this is something that I need to take with me in everything I do. briefing, doing, debriefing, briefing again, doing again Omri: Who are your favorite entrepreneurs? Gigi: I can’t just choose one, but I’ve been very lucky to have worked with some of Israel’s best entrepreneurs, and they’re people in my portfolio that I really admire. Other than that, I also obsess over Steve Jobs’ obsession with products. Also Published Here

NFX's Gigi Levy-Weiss Talks About Startup Speed, Time Management Tips and Developing a Laser Focus

A Tract on Monetary Reform, by John Maynard Keynes is part of HackerNoon’s Book Blog Post series. You can jump to any chapter in this book here . Chapter II: II. Currency Depreciation versus Capital Levy II. Currency Depreciation versus Capital Levy We have seen in the preceding section the extent to which a Government can make use of currency inflation for the purpose of securing income to meet its outgoings. But there is a second way in which inflation helps a Government to make both ends meet, namely by reducing the burden of its pre-existing liabilities in so far as they have been fixed in terms of money. These liabilities consist, in the main, of the internal debt. Every step of depreciation obviously means a reduction in the real claims of the -holders against their Government. rentes It would be too cynical to suppose that, in order to secure the advantages discussed in this section, Governments (except, possibly, the Russian Government) depreciate their currencies . As a rule, they are, or consider themselves to be, driven to it by their necessities. The requirements of the Treasury to meet sudden exceptional outgoings—for a war or to pay the consequences of defeat—are likely to be the original occasion of, at least , inflation. But the most cogent reason for depreciation, that is to say , or the policy of fixing the value of the currency permanently at the low level to which a temporary emergency has driven it, is generally to be found in the fact that a restoration of the currency to its former value would raise the recurrent annual burden of the fixed charges of the National Debt to an insupportable level. on purpose temporary permanent Devaluation There is, nevertheless, an alternative to Devaluation in such cases, provided the opponents of Devaluation are prepared to face it in time, which they generally are not,—namely a Capital Levy. The purpose of this section is to bring out clearly the character of these two methods of moderating the claims of the , when the State’s contractual liabilities, fixed in terms of money, have reached an excessive proportion of the national income. alternative rentier The active and working elements in no community, ancient or modern, will consent to hand over to the or bond-holding class more than a certain proportion of the fruits of their work. When the piled-up debt demands more than a tolerable proportion, relief has usually been sought in one or other of two out of the three possible methods. The first is Repudiation. But, except as the accompaniment of Revolution, this method is too crude, too deliberate, and too obvious in its incidence. The victims are immediately aware and cry out too loud; so that, in the absence of Revolution, this solution may be ruled out at present, as regards debt, in Western Europe. rentier internal The second method is Currency Depreciation, which becomes Devaluation when it is fixed and confirmed by law. In the countries of Europe lately belligerent, this expedient has been adopted already on a scale which reduces the real burden of the debt by from 50 to 100 per cent. In Germany the National Debt has been by these means practically obliterated, and the bond-holders have lost everything. In France the real burden of the debt is less than a third of what it would be if the franc stood at par; and in Italy only a quarter. The owners of small savings suffer quietly, as experience shows, these enormous depredations, when they would have thrown down a Government which had taken from them a fraction of the amount by more deliberate but juster instruments. This fact, however, can scarcely justify such an expedient on its merits. Its indirect evils are many. Instead of dividing the burden between all classes of wealth-owners according to a graduated scale, it throws the whole burden on to the owners of fixed interest bearing stocks, lets off the capitalist and even enriches him, and hits small savings equally with great fortunes. It follows the line of least resistance, and responsibility cannot be brought home to individuals. It is, so to speak, nature’s remedy, which comes into silent operation when the body politic has shrunk from curing itself. entrepreneur The remaining, the scientific, expedient, the Capital Levy, has never yet been tried on a large scale; and perhaps it never will be. It is the rational, the deliberate method. But it is difficult to explain, and it provokes violent prejudice by coming into conflict with the deep instincts by which the love of money protects itself. Unless the patient understands and approves its purpose, he will not submit to so severe a surgical operation. Once Currency Depreciation has done its work, I should not advocate the unwise, and probably impracticable, policy of retracing the path with the aid of a Capital Levy. But if it has become clear that the claims of the bond-holder are more than the taxpayer can support, and if there is still time to choose between the policies of a Levy and of further Depreciation, the Levy must surely be preferred on grounds both of expediency and of justice. It is an overwhelming objection to the method of Currency Depreciation, as compared with that of the Levy, that it falls entirely upon persons whose wealth is in the form of claims to legal-tender money, and that these are generally, amongst the capitalists, the poorer capitalists. It is entirely ungraduated; it falls on small savings just as hardly as on big ones; and incidentally it benefits the capitalist class for the reasons explained in Chapter I. Unfortunately the small savers who have most to lose by Currency Depreciation are precisely the sort of conservative people who are most alarmed by a Capital Levy; whilst, on the other hand, the class must obviously prefer Depreciation which does not hit them very much and may actually enrich them. It is the combination of these two forces which will generally bring it about that a country will prefer the inequitable and disastrous courses of Currency Depreciation to the scientific deliberation of a Levy. entrepreneur entrepreneur There is a respectable and influential body of opinion which, repudiating with vehemence the adoption of either expedient, fulminates alike against Devaluations and Levies, on the ground that they infringe the untouchable sacredness of contract; or rather of vested interest, for an alteration of the legal tender and the imposition of a tax on property are neither of them in the least illegal or even contrary to precedent. Yet such persons, by overlooking one of the greatest of all social principles, namely the fundamental distinction between the right of the individual to repudiate contract and the right of the State to control vested interest, are the worst enemies of what they seek to preserve. For nothing can preserve the integrity of contract between individuals, except a discretionary authority in the State to revise what has become intolerable. The powers of uninterrupted usury are too great. If the accretions of vested interest were to grow without mitigation for many generations, half the population would be no better than slaves to the other half. Nor can the fact that in time of war it is easier for the State to borrow than to tax, be allowed permanently to enslave the taxpayer to the bond-holder. Those who insist that in these matters the State is in exactly the same position as the individual, will, if they have their way, render impossible the continuance of an individualist society, which depends for its existence on moderation. These conclusions might be deemed obvious if experience did not show that many conservative bankers regard it as more consonant with their cloth, and also as economising thought, to shift public discussion of financial topics off the logical on to an alleged “moral” plane, which means a realm of thought where vested interest can be triumphant over the common good without further debate. But it makes them untrustworthy guides in a perilous age of transition. The State must never neglect the importance of so acting in ordinary matters as to promote certainty and security in business. But when great decisions are to be made, the State is a sovereign body of which the purpose is to promote the greatest good of the whole. When, therefore, we enter the realm of State action, is to be considered and weighed on its merits. Changes in Death Duties, Income Tax, Land Tenure, Licensing, Game Laws, Church Establishment, Feudal Rights, Slavery, and so on through all ages, have received the same denunciations from the absolutists of contract,—who are the real parents of Revolution. everything In our own country the question of the Capital Levy depends for its answer on whether the great increase in the claims of the bond-holder, arising out of the fact that it was easier, and perhaps more expedient, to raise a large part of the current costs of the war by loans rather than by taxes, is more than the taxpayer can be required, in the long run, to support. The high levels of the Death Duties and of the income- and super-taxes on unearned income, by which the net return to the bond-holder is substantially diminished, modify the case. Nevertheless, immediately after the war, when it seemed that the normal budget could scarcely be balanced without a level of taxation of which a tax on earned income at a standard rate between 6s. and 10s. in the £ would be typical, a levy seemed to be necessary. At the present time the case is rather more doubtful. It is not yet possible to know how the normal budget will work out, and much depends on the level at which sterling prices are stabilised. If the level of sterling prices is materially lowered, whether in pursuance of a policy of restoring the old gold parity or for any other reason, a levy may be required. If, however, sterling prices are stabilised somewhere between 80 and 100 per cent above the pre-war level—a settlement probably desirable on other grounds—and if the progressive prosperity of the country is restored, then perhaps we may balance our future budgets without oppressive taxation on earned income and without a levy either. A levy is from the practical view perfectly feasible, and is not open to more objection than any other tax of like magnitude. Nevertheless, like all new taxes, it cannot be brought in without friction, and is, therefore, scarcely worth advocating for its own sake merely in substitution for an existing tax of similar incidence. It is to be regarded as the fairest and most expedient method of adjusting the burden of taxation between past accumulations and the fruits of present efforts, whenever, in the general judgment of the country, the discouragement to the latter is excessive. A levy is to be judged, not by itself, but as against the practicable alternatives. Experience shows with great certainty that the active part of the community will not submit in the long run to pay too much to vested interest, and, if the necessary adjustment is not made in one way, it will be made in another,—probably by the depreciation of the currency. 17 new 17 The net return to the French rentier is more than 6 per cent; to the British not much above 3 per cent. In several countries the existing burden of the internal debt renders Devaluation inevitable and certain sooner or later. It will be sufficient to illustrate the case by reference to the situation of France,—the home of absolutism of all kinds, and hence, sooner or later, of bouleversement. The finances of Humpty Dumpty are as follows: At the end of 1922 the internal debt of France, excluding altogether her external debt, exceeded 250 milliard francs. Further borrowing budgeted for in the ensuing period, together with loans on reconstruction account guaranteed by the Government, may bring this total to the neighbourhood of 300 milliards by the end of 1923. The service of this debt will absorb nearly 18 milliards per annum. The total normal receipts under the provisional Budget for 1923 are estimated at round 23 milliards. That is to say, the service of the debt will shortly absorb, at the value of the franc current early in 1923, almost the entire yield of taxation. Since other Government expenditure in the ordinary budget (i.e., excluding war pensions and future expenditure on reconstruction) cannot be put below 12 milliards a year, it follows that, even on the improbable hypothesis that further expenditure in the extraordinary budget after 1923 will be paid for by Germany, the yield of taxation must be increased permanently by 30 per cent to make both ends meet. If, however, the franc were to depreciate to (say) 100 to the pound sterling, the ordinary budget could be balanced by taking little more of the real income of the country than in 1922. 18 18 The forecasts of the final outcome of the year are frequently changed and may be somewhat different from the above,—though not sufficiently to affect the argument. M. de Lasteyrie has lately pointed out with pride how the further depreciation of the franc, since he first introduced his budget, is already improving the receipts measured in terms of francs. In these circumstances it will be difficult, if not impossible, to avoid the subtle assistance of a further depreciation. What, then, is to be said of those who still discuss seriously the project of restoring the franc to its former parity? In such an event the already intolerable burden of the claims would be about trebled. It is unthinkable that the French taxpayer would submit. Even if the franc were put back to par by a miracle, it could not stay there. Fresh inflation due to the inadequacy of tax receipts must drive it anew on its downward course. Yet I have assumed the cancellation of the whole of France’s external debt, and the assumption by Germany of the burdens of the extraordinary budget after 1923, an assumption which is not justified by present expectations. These facts alone render it certain that the franc cannot be restored to its former value. rentier’s France must come in due course to some compromise between increasing taxation, and diminishing expenditure, and reducing what they owe their . I have not much doubt that the French public, as they have hitherto, will consider a further dose of depreciation—attributing it to the “bad will” of Germany or to financial Machiavellism in London and New York—as far more conservative, orthodox, and in the interest of small savers, than a justly constructed Capital Levy, the odium of which could be less easily escaped by the French Ministry of Finance. rentiers If we look ahead, averting our eyes from the ups and downs which can make and unmake fortunes in the meantime, the level of the franc is going to be settled in the long run not by speculation or the balance of trade, or even the outcome of the Ruhr adventure, but by the proportion of his earned income which the French taxpayer will permit to be taken from him to pay the claims of the French . The level of the franc exchange will continue to fall until the commodity-value of the francs due to the has fallen to a proportion of the national income, which accords with the habits and mentality of the country. rentier rentier About HackerNoon Book Series: We bring you the most important technical, scientific, and insightful public domain books. This book is part of the public domain. Keynes, John Maynard. 2021. A Tract on Monetary Reform. Urbana, Illinois: Project Gutenberg. Retrieved May 2022 from https://www.gutenberg.org/files/65278/65278-h/65278-h.htm#sec_7 This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org , located at https://www.gutenberg.org/policy/license.html .

A Tract on Monetary Reform: Chapter II - II. Currency Depreciation versus Capital Levy

[Audio] How Runs a $1.4M Syndicate, a Top Tech Startup and an AL Venture Fund All At Once Pascal Levy-Garboua AngelList <a href="https://medium.com/media/5f40ae3af49f9ed169a012bdd8e41a0e/href">https://medium.com/media/5f40ae3af49f9ed169a012bdd8e41a0e/href</a> Pascal has 10+ years experience in Enterprise software and Consumer Internet and is passionate about marketplaces and local commerce since working at eBay. He built and scale VirtuOz (VC backed) from 4 to 80+ employees before ultimately being acquired. Pascal also runs one of the top Angellist syndicates, having invested in Realty Shares, , Wag, , , and Payjoy. He also runs one of the first AL venture funds and is a is a mentor and judge at in the Technology Venture Formation class (MS&E 273). Checkr Shyp Caviar Sprig Stanford Listen and Learn: How to run a top syndicate while working a day job Why local commerce is the future The way Angellist funds work What most angel investors do wrong initially How Angellist has evolved in the past three years Why liquidity is hard to come by How the on demand economy is changing commerce as we know it Why cryptocurrency is overrated in the short term and underrated in the long term Pascal’s Projects: Pascal’s AngelList profile Pascal’s Syndicate Pascal’s LinkedIn Pascal’s on Twitter: @2pasc Check out the Original Episode Here! Itunes: Android: http://thesyndicate.vc/itunes http://thesyndicate.vc/android If you got something actionable or valuable from this post or enjoyed the interview, go ahead and “Clap” below .

[Audio] How Pascal Levy-Garboua Runs a $1.4M

Tariffs have punctuated the age of Trump 2.0, and their impact on the diverse commodities landscape could shake investor portfolios for years to come. The President was quick to place 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% levy on China, citing factors like illegal immigration and the drug trade as catalysts for the measure. Canada and Mexico promised retaliatory measures, while China suggested that it would challenge the levies at the World Trade Organization as well as adopting other countermeasures. This souring of trade relations points to a possible protracted trade war which could threaten to drive inflation rates higher. The tariffs have prompted volatility through various commodity markets, but what will the impact be on commodities once the dust settles? prompted volatility prompted volatility Tariffs Turn Wall Street Jittery Tariffs have long been a core component of Trump’s economic strategy, and the measures formed a strong part of the President’s campaign trail. While Trump has been vocal about the reasons behind the tariffs having been prompted by illegal immigration and the flow of fentanyl into the United States, he has also called the word ‘tariff’ the “most beautiful word in the dictionary.” called the word called the word Although tariffs don’t always cause a stock market downturn, and Trump’s use of tariffs during his first term didn’t prompt sustained panic, investors have been caught off guard by the President’s tactics, having anticipated a more measured approach. Given Trump has secured Republican control of the Senate, House of Representatives, and Congress in a clean sweep in the election, it appears that the President is more eager to deliver on his promises or threats than in his previous term. The relative strength of the S&P 500 also appears to have given Trump more confidence to pressure markets before easing off as prices fall. However, the approach may lead to sustained corrections from the high valuations we’ve seen of late. pressure markets pressure markets Even in an environment where the enforcement of the sweeping tariffs promised is far from assured, the mere threat of levies has unsettled commodities markets. Data shows that traders on COMEX locked in pre-tariff prices, while skepticism brings a wider sense of stability. However, the LME, which operates on physical deliveries, has experienced a series of disruptions as fears over global tariff implications have led to more anticipatory purchasing, triggering price movements even in copper, which is more susceptible to inflationary impacts. series of disruptions series of disruptions Is this trend of uncertainty here to stay for commodities trading in Trump 2.0? It appears that many different forms of commodity could be impacted by tariffs in the months and years ahead. The Uneven Impact on Commodities Seemingly the best place to start would be metals. With Trump promising a 25% tariff on aluminum and steel coming into effect on March 12 with no exceptions, we’re set to see widespread volatility throughout metals markets. With Canada responsible for 50% of the aluminum imported into the US in 2024, Trump’s decision to implement the tariff to encourage domestic production will see considerable initial strain that’s likely to create price inflation. Canada has also promised to retaliate to the tariff, which could trigger more of a skirmish in what may be a protracted trade war. \ Fortunately, we can look to history for indicators as to what could happen for steel and aluminum prices. When Trump announced tariffs of 25% on steel and 15% on aluminum during his first term as President in 2018, we saw price volatility move higher. Tariffs raised the average price of steel and aluminum in the US by 2.4% and 1.6% respectively. However, in 2018, Trump added a series of exemptions for countries like Canada, Australia, and Mexico. Without these concessions, we could see costs range far higher. 2.4% and 1.6% respectively 2.4% and 1.6% respectively Analysts have been uncertain about other commodities. Barclays suggested that higher costs of oil may be driven by all three parties in the supply chain, from Canadian producers, refiners largely in the Midwest, and end-consumers all paying more for costs. Barclays suggested Barclays suggested The analysts concluded that tariffs are generally bad news for oil because they weigh on demand and boost the value of the US dollar, complicating trade further. Likewise, CITI analysts suggested that precious metals like gold and silver could grow in value as a safe haven against market uncertainty. However, they concluded that the outlook for copper is altogether more bearish. Navigating Commodities Because of the unpredictability of Trump, investments in commodities are likely to be more volatile than those in more traditional securities, particularly if leverage is involved. unpredictability of Trump The value of commodity-based derivatives could also be impacted by wider market movements, commodity index volatility, interest rate changes, and other industry factors resulting from adverse weather events and climate change. wider market movements wider market movements Tariffs could add to widespread uncertainty surrounding commodities that could be a concern for the prospects of short and long term investment opportunities but may allow some joy for traders hoping to react fast to volatility moving forward. With the right access to a prime services provider, institutional investors can use low-latency trading opportunities to their advantage, and use tariffs as an added incentive to trade volatility. Opportunities in Uncertainty Much has been made of the impact of tariffs, but it’s important to note that a prospective trade war is far from a black swan event like the 2008 financial crisis or COVID crash, and instead, the fallout from tariffs is more likely to signal a multi-faceted, long-term economic shift. Institutional investors can take advantage of tariffs by adapting their portfolios early and utilizing analytics to create a more holistic overview of shifting market sentiment. When it comes to the convoluted world of commodities, tariffs can shake up short-term outlooks for a range of different metals, fuels, and soft commodities, and there can be some significant opportunities to be taken in trading the uncertainty of Trump’s actions in a proactive manner.

Charting The Impact of Trump's Tariffs on Commodity Investing

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