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Healthcare payments company Waystar, which was set to launch its initial public offering (IPO) roadshow to pitch investors this week, has now delayed it until at least December, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.

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Healthcare software company Waystar, which was set to launch its initial public offering roadshow to pitch investors this week, has now delayed it until December at the earliest, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.

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Instacart

instacart

The company's journey to IPO is impressive, but the long-term upside hinges on the success of its long-term bets like ads and the enterprise platform. Last week, Instacart filed an S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in preparation for their IPO. This is an incredible moment for the company that pioneered the online grocery delivery market. Huge congratulations to the team on this milestone — it’s an impressive outcome from an 11-year journey. This, along with the Klavio and ARM IPOs, has created fresh hope that the tech IPO market is en route to recovery. Interestingly, when a company announces it intends to go public, the law requires it to open up a firehose of information. One such document is . From analyzing this document, a couple of things stand out: Instacart’s 300+ page S-1 filing In 2022, the US grocery market was $1.1 trillion, of which ~$132B is online; of this, ~$29B ran through Instacart. In other words, , pointing to a market saturation risk. Instacart already has 22% of the current total addressable market (TAM) for online grocery The company lists out a long list of potential risks (which is required and therefore expected on an S-1), and — intense competition, heavy reliance on medium-size retailers who might be consolidating/getting bigger, profitability risks to name a few, etc. many of these risks seem non-trivial While Instacart has navigated rough valuation corrections and managed to have a profitable 2022, the company still has several challenges ahead as it starts operating as a public company. In this article, we’ll talk about the company is making to set itself up for success. where the US grocery market is, Instacart’s market saturation problem, and the long (but uncertain) bets US Grocery Market and Instacart’s Market Saturation Problem To understand Instacart’s market saturation problem, let’s start with understanding the US grocery market from a couple of different lenses. One lens is looking at the overall market and what percent of it is/will be online. The total US grocery market as of 2022 is $1.1 trillion. Of this, ). ~12% is online (i.e., ~$132B Of the $132B online grocery market, Instacart ran worth of transactions in 2022, i.e., . $29B they already have ~22% of the online grocery market Also note that the total US grocery is expected to grow modestly at , which is not surprising for a mature market. While the % of this market that moves online changes meaningfully, it is estimated to cap out at ~21–24% in the next 5–10 years. ~2.3% annually As an example, per Instacart’s own reporting (chart below), in 2027, the online grocery market will be $1.3B * 21% online = ~$273B (about double what it is today). Another lens to look at the market is share by retailer. About half of the market is owned by (Walmart, Costco, Kroger, Sam’s Club), about one-fourth by (Publix, Target, Albertsons/Safeway, H-E-B, Whole Foods), and the remaining one-fourth by small local stores (convenience stores, local grocery stores, specialty grocery stores, etc.). large retailers medium retailers In other words, large retailers hold a lot of sway, followed by medium retailers. Put these two lenses together, and you start seeing the key challenges Instacart is facing. First, the overall grocery market is not growing by that much, and Instacart is facing intense competition. While Instacart wants to and not redistribute existing value, this is much harder to do in a mature market like US grocery. “grow the pie” For Instacart to succeed, the company needs to of the highly competitive online grocery market . preserve/expand its share AND increase the percentage of grocery delivery that happens online Second, Instacart needs to make itself . Large retailers (half of the grocery market) have either already invested or are starting to invest in their own technology offerings. valuable enough that large and medium retailers stick around Grocery is also a high volume, low margin business, which has resulted in more consolidation lately ( ). Kroger and Albertsons/Safeway announced they are merging As more of the medium retailers beef up to become larger, Instacart runs the risk of losing them if they choose to in-house their technology and logistics investments. For Instacart to be successful long-term, it’s critical for them to solve these two big challenges, and the company is making long-term bets in that direction. Instacart’s Long (but Uncertain) Game It’s clear from the S-1 that Instacart understands these challenges and is willing to make long-term investments. We’ll look at a few of these investments, and what the outlook looks like for each. Building Customer Loyalty to Defend Its Market Customers often don’t have loyalty toward delivery platforms and tend to switch freely to the cheapest option. While Instacart has built features that make the user experience more delightful (e.g., showing you items you have ordered before), competitors have followed suit. Instacart acknowledges : this risk As the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and its variants subside, including the cessation of government stimulus, it is increasingly important to our business and its ability to grow for consumers to perceive long-term value from Instacart versus in-store shopping or less costly alternatives, particularly for lower income consumers. They are making investments to build loyalty — both through cheaper prices derived from operational efficiencies, and an . unlimited free delivery subscription Instacart+ Though Instacart+ has an impressive 5M members and accounts for , several competitors have equivalent products that do not require explicit payments. ~57% of transaction volume For example, DoorDash’s DashPass is offered for free with , and bundles free grocery delivery along with free eCommerce shipping. some Chase credit cards Walmart+ Instacart also has a similar deal today, pointing to a likely future where several subscriptions are provided to consumers for free, thereby eroding Instacart’s advantage from Instacart+. with Chase credit cards Take it with a grain of salt since it’s one person’s experience, but the last time I ordered groceries online, I compared prices on DoorDash and Instacart (because both are more expensive than in-store). I had free subscriptions for both through credit cards. The final amount turned out to be about the same, and I ended up ordering with DoorDash — because I use the app more often for ordering from restaurants. This points to another disadvantage Instacart has over more high-frequency/ubiquitous competitors. Overall, I still think Instacart will continue to be a significant player and at least defend the % of the online grocery market they own, but I’m not bullish that this % will increase. Scaling Up Advertising for New Revenue + Subsidizing Delivery Instacart ads generated $740M in 2022 revenue. Besides creating a new revenue stream (which Instacart definitely needs given its market saturation), this descriptive chart from Instacart’s S-1 perfectly captures why advertising matters for the company: For every transaction, Instacart collects fees from retailers and from consumers. It then pays out shoppers who pick up/deliver groceries; in this part of the funnel, from a $110 transaction, Instacart gets to keep $7. There is further “cost of revenue” including but not limited to technology/infrastructure, employee salaries, etc.; of the $7, Instacart gets to keep $4 “gross profit”, i.e., a low 4% profit margin. Now, add advertising to this. What Instacart keeps goes up to $7 “gross profit”, i.e., . In other words, it increases the company’s bottom line by 50%. advertising turns Instacart from a 4% to a 6% margin business This is a very similar strategy to how . Uber successfully used ads to subsidize their low-margin delivery & rides business While the ads revenue number is impressive, what makes this product strategically valuable is what ads in the context of Instacart can drive for advertisers. Let’s look at Uber briefly, and then come back to Instacart. In the Uber analysis, I wrote about the UberEats and Uber Rides app inventory — UberEats is high intent and in context (e.g., you are searching for restaurants and you see a restaurant ad) vs. Uber Rides which is more display ads-y (e.g., you ordered a ride, there’s a free canvas there, and Uber shows you an ad for something that could be relevant to you but not contextual). differences between Between the two, I was significantly more bullish on UberEats because the value proposition to an advertiser is clear — spend ads money with Uber and directly measure the transactions it drives (the link is much less defensible for Uber Rides app ads). For the same reason, I’m very bullish about Instacart ads. Specifically, Instacart is building their ads product for — classic examples of CPG advertisers are Procter and Gamble (makes Tide pods), Coca-Cola, Kellogg’s, AbInBev (makes Bud Light) to name a few. consumer packaged goods (CPG) advertisers Though CPG advertisers have some of the most sophisticated marketers in the industry, they have often struggled with measuring the direct effectiveness of their ads. For example, if you are Procter & Gamble and you want to increase sales of Tide pods, you don’t go run ads on Google, Facebook, or display. Because users don’t buy directly from Procter & Gamble, they buy from distributors/retailers like Walmart and Target. Therefore, CPG advertisers typically have to use more traditional marketing methods, like paying Walmart to show their products prominently in aisles. Another version of this is where a CPG brand spends ad dollars on behalf of some distributors, e.g., AbInBev spends ad dollars promoting Bud Light sales in a few specific bars. co-op advertising dollars While several top retailers have built sophisticated ad products for CPG advertisers (a new category of ad platforms called ), — if you are a CPG brand and you don’t sell directly to consumers, you need to rely on some sort of “estimated” measurement of how effectively your ads dollars are driving sales. retail media networks the two-hop problem still exists Their ad product , e.g., Procter & Gamble can specifically promote Tide pods when you are in the process of ordering from a Safeway near you. Instacart breaks that huge limitation. lets CPG advertisers promote specific items at specific retailers in a highly contextual format And more importantly, since the actual transaction happens within the Instacart app, Instacart can deterministically (without any “estimations”) say how much product sales were driven by ad spend. Irrespective of how mature or effective the Instacart ad product is today, the that very few other products have. ability to provide direct response advertising to CPG advertisers and measure sales outcomes with high confidence is a big moat There are a couple of advertising-related risks though. Instacart’s order numbers are flat year over year, and if this were to decline, that would hurt their ability to scale the ads products (sub-scale advertising products have a difficult time succeeding — e.g., Twitter). Also, with Instacart’s ad product, the company risks pissing off retailers who are essentially building their own ad products. Advertising often tends to be a zero-sum game, and if Procter and Gamble is spending directly with Instacart, that’s money not being spent on Safeway’s retail media network. Instacart could make the argument that it “grows the pie” for everyone, but I’m not confident this would land with retailers. My guess is that it will land in a place where Instacart agrees to some revenue share model with retailers. Overall, I’m bullish that the ads business will continue to thrive as long as it can keep up order volume. Instacart Enterprise Platform At the beginning of the S-1, Instacart CEO Fidji Simo articulates Instacart’s vision: Our vision is to build the technology that powers every single grocery transaction — working with the retailers that consumers know and love to invent the future of grocery together. And right now, that’s more important than ever. Note the language there — Instacart does not say that they want to be the primary platform for every grocery transaction. They say they want to build the technology that powers it. I have no criticism of the framing, and I think that’s a smart strategy, but I do think that the framing is a direct consequence of the market saturation problem Instacart is facing. Instacart knows that more online grocery orders cannot be their only future (or at least that there’s a ceiling on the addressable market with that approach). A few excerpts from the S-1 support this and also shine a light on how Instacart is thinking about going beyond online grocery: We (Instacart) believe the future of grocery won’t be about choosing between shopping online and in-store. Most of us are going to do both. So we want to create a truly omni-channel experience that brings the best of the online shopping experience to physical stores, and vice versa. With the business of grocery changing so quickly, many retailers need a trusted partner to help them navigate this digital transformation so that they can drive success both online and in-store. If the neighborhood grocer who has been serving their community for decades can’t find an edge, they may not be able to keep up. They are looking to address this opportunity with the — it’s essentially a Shopify-esqe offering but specifically for brick-and-mortar retailers, and supports a range of functionality across retailers’ life cycles. Some notable functionality includes: Instacart enterprise platform eCommerce: They provide white-label online storefronts for 550 brands (see screenshot of Sprouts’ storefront powered by Instacart). Fulfillment: actual delivery of orders; typically picked, packed, and delivered by Instacart shoppers, but retailers can also choose to pick and pack themselves. Ads: Power on retailers’ eCommerce storefronts sponsored products and display ads With this investment, Instacart is and , and with them long term (and not consider in-housing all of their online business). betting that they can use their existing position as retailers’ delivery partners expand that to be more strategic technology partners consequently get retailers to stick around It is a smart bet, but I think is nowhere close to a slam dunk (at least so far). Large retailers (Walmart, Kroger, etc.) control ~50% of the grocery market, and I’m skeptical that they would want to rely on Instacart’s enterprise platform as their storefront. Large companies like to minimize external dependencies because these tend to slow down product development heavily in the long term. Additionally, if I were running online grocery at Kroger, I would not want a distribution partner to also be my technology provider — because sooner or later, the partner is going to have a conflict of interest, and that won’t be a fun conversation to have. Even if I had no technical competency in-house, I would much rather hire from a long list of system integrators, or contract the work to an IT company (like Infosys, Wipro) to build an in-house system. Outsourcing tech for online grocery is likely more palatable for medium-sized retailers who are okay with strategic risk, but there have been indications that consolidation is coming (e.g., Kroger Albertsons merger), and it’s uncertain how many medium-sized retailed will continue to exist in the long term. Not to say this bet won’t be successful — just that these are non-trivial challenges that Instacart needs to address to actually make the transition to being a dual distribution + technology partner for medium and large retailers. Conclusion I think Instacart’s journey so far is nothing short of impressive, and they have clearly created a market that’s here to stay. Despite all the non-trivial challenges, I am bullish that Instacart will come out of this successful. Their ads business that caters to CPG advertisers’ direct response needs is a strong moat that can subsidize the delivery business. This, along with other operational improvements they are making, can improve their profitability and therefore at least maintain their market share of the online market (I’m skeptical about it expanding). The key uncertainty to me is if they can make the transition to a dual distribution + technology partner role for retailers, and that might meaningfully change the trajectory of what Instacart’s long-term valuation ends up being. 🚀 If you liked this piece, consider subscribing to Every week, I publish one in the form of a 10-minute read. . my weekly newsletter deep-dive analysis on a current tech topic/product strategy Best, Viggy. Also published more

Instacart IPO: Will It Win The Race Against Market Saturation?

ইন্সটাকার্ট আইপিও: এটা কি বাজার স্যাচুরেশনের বিরুদ্ধে রেস জিতবে?

Börsengang von Instacart: Wird es den Wettlauf gegen die Marktsättigung gewinnen?

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Introduction en bourse d'Instacart : gagnera-t-il la course contre la saturation du marché ?

इंस्टाकार्ट आईपीओ: क्या यह बाजार संतृप्ति के खिलाफ दौड़ जीतेगा?

Instacart IPO: 市場飽和との競争に勝つことができるか?

Instacart IPO: 시장 포화에 맞서는 경쟁에서 승리할 수 있을까요?

IPO da Instacart: ela vencerá a corrida contra a saturação do mercado?

IPO Instacart: выиграет ли компания в борьбе с насыщением рынка?

Instacart Halka Arz: Piyasa Doygunluğuna Karşı Yarışı Kazanacak mı?

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Instacart IPO：它会赢得对抗市场饱和的竞赛吗？

On her first day as Instacart’s new CEO in early August, Fidji Simo, a former Facebook executive, acknowledged the tumultuous relationship the grocery delivery company has at times experienced with its workers. Publishing an , she offered change to delivery workers, whom the company treats as independent contractors, not employees. open letter “I want to be a thoughtful and open partner,” she wrote.  She added that workers could email her suggestions on improving working conditions, saying, “My team and I will read every note, and I’ll respond to as many as I can.” But members of , a group of more than 13,000 gig workers that formed to advocate on behalf of app-based food and grocery delivery workers for companies like Uber Eats, DoorDash, and Shipt, say little has changed at Instacart. Gig Workers Collective “We were optimistic that there was positive change on the horizon,” said Willy Solis, an Instacart worker and lead organizer with Gig Workers Collective. “But our initial optimism was dashed.” Instacart, founded in 2012, has . amassed $2.7 billion in venture capital funding During the coronavirus pandemic, the company said business boomed, with the number of orders , prompting it to . going up by as much as 500 percent hire more than 500,000 new delivery workers While it’s , and grocery delivery businesses overall have begun to slump, the company has indicated it before the end of the year. unclear how profitable Instacart is plans to go public Yet, advocates say, Instacart workers are not seeing their pay improve—the fundamental issue at play in a new #DeleteInstacart campaign launched by Gig Workers Collective. The group is asking customers to support delivery workers by until it (“Shopper” is Instacart’s term for delivery worker). The collective also , asking workers to avoid delivering for the company. boycotting the company “rectifies the genuinely inequitable manner in which it treats its shoppers.” planned a walk-off on Oct. 16 “We take shopper feedback very seriously and remain dedicated to listening and learning from our community to improve the Instacart shopper experience,” said Natalia Montalvo, Instacart’s director of shopper engagement and communications. “While historically the actions by this group have not resulted in any disruption or impact to our service, our relationship with all shoppers is incredibly important and we’re deeply committed to doing right by them.” Rebecca Givan, an associate professor at Rutgers University School of Management and Labor Relations, said the labor clash is not unique to Instacart workers—she’s seen an overall uptick in gig-worker-led boycotts, strikes, and walk-offs. “As the workers are squeezed more, they start to learn successful organizing strategies” - Rebecca Givan “As the workers are squeezed more, they start to learn successful organizing strategies,” Givan said. “The workers are explicitly asking for customers to use another option. This is something that is a little bit different when we’re talking about gig workers, because it’s frictionless for both the workers and the customers to switch to another app.” Instacart workers have taken various forms of collective action against the company in the past. In the beginning of the pandemic, workers demanded ; and before that, they protested and . hazard pay and access to paid sick leave over low pay how the company allocates workers’ tips In this latest round of unrest, Gig Workers Collective has , which focus on working conditions and Instacart’s pay structure. The group in mid-August. five specific demands published this list in an open letter to Simo Simo has been “consistently reading and responding to emails” and has conducted “a number of one-on-one conversations” with workers, Instacart’s Montalvo said. But Solis, from Gig Workers Collective, said individual workers he’s spoken to have gotten “canned responses” from the CEO, and the collective has yet to hear back. “At the end of the day, it was nothing more than lip service,” Solis said. “We need more than placating banter.” How Much Are Instacart Workers Paid? Workers say that as pay has declined over time, their earnings have become harder to predict and understand. When Kelly Harris started working for Instacart in Columbus, Ohio, in 2017, her pay would fluctuate based on what Instacart said was customer demand. She said that back then it was easier to predict what her pay would be: $0.40 per item in each order, plus a set price per order. That price would go up or down . depending on what Instacart deemed busy times In 2018, Instacart changed its pay structure by getting rid of “busy”-time pricing and the $0.40 per item payments. The company started to calculate pay. Workers would get at least $10 per order, and the price could go up from there, but workers say how much and when seemed to be arbitrary. Harris said she began earning less. relying more heavily on its algorithm Then, in 2019, Instacart changed again—lowering the minimum pay from $10 to and bundling up to three orders together for that $7 baseline (or whatever price the algorithm had set). $7 per order “The kind of money that I was making in 20 to 30 hours then, I would probably need to work 100 hours now,” said Harris, who’s relocated to Steubenville, Ohio. “I’ve seen a 70 percent pay cut over the years. It’s really not worth it; it’s not reliable anymore.” “I’ve seen a 70 percent pay cut over the years. It’s really not worth it” - Kelly Harris Montalvo didn’t respond to questions about how the company’s algorithm calculates worker earnings but said, “There are many considerations for every order that needs to be taken into account when determining batch pay—including the volume of customer demand, geographic profiles, retailer mix, items, weight, and projected delivery times.” When workers open the app, they see available “batches” (Instacart’s nickname for grocery orders), which show a set commission price plus the customer’s tip. If the batch is higher-paying, workers have around 30 seconds to decide whether to take it before it disappears. Workers say the $7 and other lower-paying batches tend to sit there. Harris said batch prices can be all over the map. “I’ve seen batches with 90 unique items for $7, and I’ve seen batches for 12 or 13 items for $7,” Harris said. “There’s no sense to it.” Harris provided The Markup with several screenshots of batches in late September. One, for example, was for 107 grocery items and offered $14.92 total pay with no tip. Another was for four items for $22.94 and a $3.33 tip but included a 28-mile drive to the customer’s home. Several other screenshots also showed long drives, two batches bundled together for the same price or orders with more than 100 items (which can take up to two hours to fulfill). All payments were within a $7 to $22 range. Some Instacart orders are for more than 100 items, which workers say can take up to two hours to fill. In its demands, Gig Workers Collective is asking Instacart to reinstate three of its previous payment methods. It wants workers to be paid per order and the company to stop bundling batches together. It wants the per item payment reestablished since orders with a lot of items take more time. And it wants Instacart to restore the default in-app tip to 10 percent, rather than 5 percent, where it’s set now. (Customers can choose their own tip amount; the default is a suggested prompt.) We “removed the ‘none’ option in the customer tip settings, requiring customers to manually change their tip to $0 if desired and making it less likely that a customer will remove the shopper tip altogether,” Montalvo said. She added that, “We have a customer tip default setting which allows customers to save their default tip based on their last order.” Montalvo didn’t comment on Gig Workers Collective’s other demands around pay. In the past, Instacart has said it because it “serves as a baseline for a shopper’s potential tip and can be increased to any amount.” When the company changed its pay structure and , it said that was to “provide clearer and more consistent earnings” for workers. wouldn’t raise the app’s default tip stopped the $0.40 per item payments “Over time, it just started to deteriorate,” Solis said. “We feel those [demands] are reasonable…. They’re stuff that we had before, and we just want them back.” What Else Do Instacart Workers Want? Along with changing how Instacart pays workers, Gig Workers Collective is asking the company to adjust the . Currently, customers rate workers on a five-star basis, and Instacart can . Workers with lower ratings can get offered less lucrative batches. rating system by which customers evaluate delivery workers reward high scores by giving those workers first dibs on orders “Shoppers’ access to batches is determined by a number of factors, including customer demand and shopper location,” Montalvo said. “If there are more shoppers than there are available batches, we’ll use additional criteria like timeliness, accuracy, and customer rating to determine access to batches.” Workers say customers often ding them for things like sold-out grocery store items and slower delivery because of long lines or traffic. According to a Los Angeles Times article, some customers , and Instacart tends to blame the delivery workers in those situations. report missing or damaged items to get free or discounted groceries “Even when we provide photos of deliveries, Instacart can either lower our rating (which prevents us from seeing good offers for weeks) or deactivate us from the platform entirely,” Gig Workers Collective wrote in its open letter. “Instacart’s inability to properly investigate customer complaints should not result in blame unfairly placed on shoppers.” Montalvo said in cases when the company determines a customer has been fraudulent, the worker’s low rating in that instance may be “forgiven.” Workers in , , and on often complain of being unfairly deactivated. Some say it’s possibly because their ratings dipped. Others say maybe it’s because they requested too many times. Facebook groups Reddit threads Twitter extra pay on heavy orders A couple of workers say they thought they were deactivated after their , which they believed Instacart thought was a fraudulent selfie check (something the company occasionally requires). phone accidentally took a photo in their pocket Gig Workers Collective’s final demand is for Instacart to provide workers with occupational death benefits—to help their families if something goes wrong. They say working for the company can be dangerous. Not only have workers , but they’ve also been , , and . Lynn Murray, one of the , was working for Instacart at the time. tested positive for COVID-19 robbed assaulted had guns pulled on them people killed at a supermarket during a mass shooting in Boulder, Colo. Montalvo said the company offers “ ,” which “includes coverage for certain medical expenses, disability payments, and accidental death benefits.” She said workers can file claims directly with Instacart’s insurance provider.  Montalvo didn’t respond to questions about how many workers have received the benefit. Instacart workers who spoke with The Markup said they’d never heard of the program. Shopper Injury Protection Because Instacart , they don’t have employee benefits, like life insurance, health care, workers’ compensation, and sick days. classifies its workers as independent contractors “This work is becoming increasingly dangerous,” Solis said. “We feel like we need basic protections.” What Could Boycotts, Protests, and Strikes Accomplish? Such collective actions have happened before, to mixed results. When thousands of Instacart workers in March 2020 over , the , “We’ve seen absolutely no impact to Instacart’s operations.” announced an emergency walk-off inadequate personal protective equipment and sick leave company told reporters Yet, days before the strike, it changed its policy—pledging to send workers PPE kits and confirming 14 days of sick leave pay for those diagnosed with COVID-19. Similarly, a year before, when Instacart workers filed a class-action lawsuit against the company for , founder and former CEO Apoorva Mehta and ended the practice. subsidizing their wages with customer tips issued a rare apology The case was resolved as part of a class action settlement. Workers have seen other changes because of their protests. At one point, Instacart had , and the company raised those types of prices after workers spoke out.' paid some workers as little as $1.50 per order “The companies never want to admit that if they change a policy, it’s because workers are demanding it,” said Rutgers’ Givan. But “Instacart workers’ organizing skills get sharper and sharper as they build a movement.” While Instacart has made concessions in the past, however, workers say they still haven’t seen the structural changes they’ve long demanded. “With our protests, they don’t have the immediate effect that we want them to—but they do have an effect,” Solis said. “That’s why we continue to do it.” Written by: Dara Kerr This article was and was republished under the license. originally published on The Markup Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives

Discover the Reason Why Instacart Workers Want an App Boycott

In 2014, when Instacart launched, nobody imagined that the newly started grocery delivery and pickup service would grow to become the toughest rival of Amazon and DoorDash in the U.S. and Canada. With robust marketing strategies and appealing business plans, Instacart is making headlines in the grocery delivery business segment. As of 2020, so far, the company net worth valuation grew to 13 billion from 2 billion in 2016. Much of its credit goes to the coronavirus pandemic, no doubt. However, the change (in consumer buying behavior) may remain unchanged forever, at least from the founder and CEO of Instacart, Apoorva Mehta’s point of view. In her press release, she said, “COVID-19 created a massive shift for the grocery industry and forever changed how people view the necessity of on-demand services.” According to a , the company earned 10 million U.S. dollars in April 2020. The large number of consumers turned out, buying more than $700 million worth of grocery products each of the first two weeks of April 2020 using its service. report published on Forbes Some other interesting facts and figures about Instacart Instacart is operational across all 50 states of the U.S. 85% of the U.S. households use Instacart mobile app 70% of Canadian households use Instacart Instacart possesses 57% of the online grocery market share Instacart has partnered with more than 400 retailers across more than 30,000 stores in the U.S and Canada So, if you are an entrepreneur or a startup and looking to start your own business, then you have many things to learn from the online grocery delivery service provider like Instacart. Right from creating an effective mobile app business plan, proper implementation, feature integration to management, you have many things to learn from Instacart. What is Instacart Instacart is an American company providing grocery delivery and pickup services across the U.S. and Canada. The online grocery delivery service provider is widely popular for its great services to customers. In this article, we shall go through the changes and implementation it did for its business and how it got into limelight. What Brought It Into the Limelight? Even though COVID-19 came as a nightmare for people and businesses, for instacart it came as a boon. 1. Proper utilization of Opportunities COVID-19 is not at all good for lives and livelihood, but some businesses, including Instacart, turned this adversity into opportunities. Grocery products became an essential service overnight, Instacart sensed the opportunity at the earliest and implemented many new things that helped the grocery delivery service grow. It not just served the customers with responsibilities but also kept expanding its business across the states. It is now operational across all 50 states of the U.S. As a result, Instacart witnessed an unprecedented growth as compared to its competitors. Here’s a quick recap; The app daily downloads surge by 218% which was 58% more than Walmart and nearly double from Shipt. Take a look at the Statista findings; The one thing which all entrepreneurs and startups should learn from Instacart is that it kept giving more priority to its customers and its people at the time of adversity. The sudden growth came as an unexpected thing for the company. Still, it came as a responsibility, more than just a business opportunity. People trusted Instacart and expected that the grocery delivery service would deliver daily essentials safely and reliably. It stood by its customers through the pandemic peak. Most importantly, the company had (still has) not just a challenge to provide safe and reliable delivery to customers, but it also had to take care of its staff's health and safety. 2. Flexibility with “leave at my door delivery” During the pandemic peak, people were panicking, looking for safe and contactless delivery services for everything they ordered online. Instacart adopted the change very quickly and started offering “leave at my door delivery service.” Customers looking for no contact delivery can check the box “Leave at my door if I am not around.” The new changes enable customers to receive grocery orders without having to interact with their Instacart personal. No human contact reduces the spread of the virus and protects Instacart staff as well as customers. 3. Fast & flexible and order ahead Instacart is committed to enhancing and improving customers' experience by making changes in its business plan and strategies. Customers get the flexibility to place orders for groceries either ahead of a couple of weeks or simply order in advance to get the products delivered with first available shoppers. So, no more scheduling specific delivery windows. The new strategy changes have shown that the delivery windows capacity can be increased by 50% and fasten the delivery process. The new enhancement also helped Instacart go beyond restricted time slots, reducing the limitations that often used to occur by its gig workers’ availability. 4. Infrastructure scaling and AI improvements Instacart consistently worked through expansion at the time of peak performance. The app worked on its infrastructure development, such as upgraded its customer-facing app, shopper app, admin app, enterprise software, and advertising engine. It helped the grocery delivery service provider add more new store locations and partners. For example, in March, Instacart indeed 2,500 new store locations and more than 35 new retail partners. 5. Started Prescription Delivery Service Prescription delivery service, at the time of the pandemic, added value to the business. When people were not allowed to step out of their homes to contain the virus's spread, Instacart stood by their needs. The grocery delivery service provider partnered with Costco and launched a new prescription delivery service. At the same time, it also increased the workforce, such as: It doubled its customer care team (from 1200 to 3000) Hired 300,000 additional shoppers (as independent contractors) The hiring process is continued (aim to hire another 250,000 employees) 6. Excellent business management Instacart has deployed three shoppers for every ten new users. This came as an opportunity for people looking for a chance to earn money during the crisis as demand grew by 1,000% pandemic. Instacart recorded an unprecedented record with 141K downloads on April 8th. The overall download exceeded 3.2 million across App Store and Google Play in the US 7. New feature integration As the demand for grocery delivery was rising, the challenge was to manage the traffic and provide comfort to users. Instacart did it successfully by integrating some of the value-added features, such as “My Door Delivery” and “Mobile Checkout.” Rolling out new features helped Instacart streamline business processes and provide simplified delivery service to customers across the USA and Canada. 8. Responding to Shoppers There were times (during its early days) when Instacart was criticized for not responding to its workers. As the scenarios changed and now Instacart announced many welfare schemes for its workers, they include; Paid leaves part-time workers (those diagnosed with COVID-19) Bonus program for shoppers Bring changes in employment policy led to a sudden spike in shoppers app download surge. Things which entrepreneurs should learn is that taking care of the staff will help boost productivity and gain more business opportunities. That means keep your workers happy, provide competitive compensation packages to attract workers. Instacart revenue plan Instacart makes money through for revenue channels, they include; Delivery fees Grocery store partner fees Markups Placement fees Ad Delivery fees: Instacart charges $3.99 for two-hour delivery and $5.99 for 1-hour delivery from its users. The grocery delivery service provider also offers express delivery options to its regular users at cost-effective delivery options. For example, the Instacart Express Delivery plan needs to pay $149/year for unlimited delivery throughout the year. Grocery store partner fees: Instacart has partnered with grocery stores across the U.S. and charge a percentage of sales revenue. 90% of orders are placed with partnered stores. And if it collects 2% or 3% from its partners per order, it makes around $2.25 per order. Markups: According to an article online, Instacart charges around 15% on Costco products in certain regions. However, the benefits depend on the order frequency and demand in particular areas. Placement fees: When a manufacturer wants to promote its products to customers through Instacart, the delivery service provider will charge a fee. Manufacturers would send samples to Instacart to deliver to customers for free. A certain amount of expenditure would be given to Instacart. Ad: Instacart also allows grocery stores and grocery products manufacturers to place ads on its grocery delivery mobile app. It charges certain fees for it. Learn from Instacart's business model Instacart focuses more on its customers and shoppers. It does everything to provide value to its customers. The grocery delivery service provider ensures that the products delivered to customers are fresh and organic. Here’s how it does; Offers 1000+ fresh products with discounts vouchers Instacart partnered with reputed retailers and grocery stores, including ALDI, Safeway, Costco, CVS, etc. Customers can browse through popular stores and place orders Offer Instacart Express to its regular customers Delivers alcoholic beverages on the go Apart from these, Instacart also focuses on mobile applications, particularly the app for users. It ensured that users get all necessary features with excellent UI/UX. Final Thoughts If you are willing to begin your own business like Instacart, then ensure that you develop the right business plan by keeping mobile apps at the centerstage. You can also explore and learn from similar companies, apart from Instacart, and learn what their business plan works. At the same time, dig out how the utilization of technology will make differences.

10 Lessons Startups Can Learn from Instacart’s Growth

Instacart is in talks to raise $400M at a $3B valuation. I think they’re gonna get crushed. Read on. Instacart In Talks to Raise About $400 Million I used Instacart for 2 years — it was a great way to trade money for time. By not having to physically go to the store, wander around, wait in line, then commute home… I would save about an hour. I could just open the app, choose what I wanted, and press submit. The groceries cost about the same, maybe 10% more, plus I’d tip 10–15%. So saving an hour cost me $5–10 (plus $99/year). This is quite a first world problem but in an entrepreneur’s worldview, an hour is totally worth $10. I can spend that hour working on my company or unwinding from work. If I were working for someone else, I’d definitely charge more than $10 so why spend an hour of time to save $10? So what’s the problem? Right, all this sounds great. Here’s a common Instacart experience of mine that starts to explains why I think they’re gonna lose: I order 15 items on Instacart. It takes minutes to order, they come in a timely manner (2–3 hours later). All great, except 3 items have been replaced and 4 are missing. Now those tacos I was planning on making aren’t gonna happen because Safeway was out of the salsa I ordered. Time to figure out something else to do with this ground beef. Stress. If you’re at the store you’d just get another salsa, no problem. To be fair, Instacart has a feature where you can specify an item to get instead if the one you want is missing. It’s just not enough. Every order I made would have nearly get replaced or left out. After months of this I decided it was no longer worth it and cancelled my subscription. half my items The root problem is that Instacart doesn’t know what Safeway has in their grocery store. They know what Safeway typically has, but not at a specific given time. Amazon delivers from their own warehouses, so they know exactly what’s there. Which is why I think Amazon is in a great position to crush Instacart. Also everybody already uses Amazon so why would they go out of their way to pay for a new membership with a new company when they already have a relationship (and probably a Prime subscription) with Amazon? How could they turn it around? I don’t have a crystal ball, this is just what I see happening based on the information I have. Here are some things that Instacart could do to improve their situation: Integrate with grocery stores. Hook into an API with Safeway, Whole Foods, etc. to know exactly what they have in stock so you never let a user buy something that they don’t have. Does such a thing even exist? Would Safeway be cool with that? No idea. Add a metric for average # of items missing/replaced per order. Track it ruthlessly and drive it down to near zero. Open their own stores/warehouses. This eliminates the problem entirely because they would always know what they have available. I’m not incredibly familiar with Instacart’s plans so maybe they’re already doing this. I like the idea of a larger number of niche companies (like Instacart) rather than a smaller number of powerful companies that do everything (like Amazon), so I’m rooting for them. I feel like if I write down predictions like this then I’ll hold myself accountable to checking whether they come true, and more importantly learn something when I’m wrong. Thanks for reading.

Why Instacart is gonna get crushed (by Amazon)

The Noonification: Instacart IPO: Will It Win The Race Against Market Saturation? (9/7/2023)

The Pony Express In 1860, the Pony Express moved mail between St Joseph’s, Missouri and Sacramento, California. Utilizing 200 relief horses along the route, the Pony Express delivered Lincoln’s first inaugural address from Nebraska to California in seven days and 17 hours. It was the company’s and the worlds ever delivery of mail and it ushered in the era of delivery. The horse riders who delivered the mail had a weight limit, between 100 to 125 pounds, to ensure they did not overburden the horses. ! fastest high speed mail One rider claimed he was 11 years old when he joined the Pony Express. The rider needed to be the size of an 11yr old, the weight limit was that strict Unfortunately, a mere 19 months after it launched, the company owners, William H. Russell, William B. Waddell and Alexander Majors, shut down the Pony Express. The company lost ~$200k (~$5M in 2017) for the period the business existed. While the financial losses crippled the business, it was the that truly killed the Pony Express. After delivering 35,000 pieces of mail and traveling half a million miles, what disrupted the then-disruptive Pony Express was a new technology. A technology that looked nothing like the horses it disrupted and cost a lot cheaper than the resources required to provide the same service, deliver messages between people. transcontinental telegraph http://cdn.history.com/sites/2/2016/06/Pony_Express_Poster.jpg Mooching off The Pony Express It’s 2017 and Lyft, Uber, Postmates and Instacart (I’ll call them LUPIs for ease) all promise to get us something — a cab, our groceries, our restaurant orders — faster than the current technology! But their model is inherently flawed. While the Pony Express owned its horses, and still lost money, LUPIs claim all they own is technology; the in this analogy just so happens to be the cab driver, pickers or cyclists who are activated by LUPI technology. LUPIs are truly just brokers masquerading as convenience providers. horse The Pony Express, which owned the assets required to deliver the mail, controlled more of the value and, consequently, captured more of the value. Yet it still lost money. The cab drivers (or grocery stores), who own the physical assets, capture more of the value for the same reason. Before the LUPIs came into the picture these asset owners were not making huge margins (even if the cab companies or dispatchers were). When LUPIs insert themselves into the process they take a cut of the value the asset owner used to own 100% of. All the while promising the customer . These firms provide convenience without increasing the size of the proverbial pie. And we know what happens to brokers when all they do is extract value… convenience Let us use Instacart as an example; two value reducing possibilities exist when a customer uses the app for their regular grocery shopping There is no increase in revenue for the grocery store since customers maintain their regular shopping patterns. the grocery store loses the increased revenue from those unplanned purchases almost all customers make in the grocery store. Those products by the checkout line are high margin products that the grocery store wants customers to buy on a whim! . The only way LUPIs can insert themselves between the customer and the asset owner, and truly benefit all parties, is by increasing the frequency of customer usage of the asset or by increasing the aggregate size of the customer base But LUPIs are no longer increasing the size of the pie for the asset owner. . Uber has inserted itself in the money flow and takes a cut without increasing the amount of money that Kamel gets. Over time, while maintaining its commission, Uber has reduced the topline revenue for Kamel and that only negatively affects Kamel. For Uber to increase its own revenue it needs to increase the number of cabs available for customers on the road. The increase in numbers of cars on the roads, reduces the number of rides that Kamel can provide due to increased competition, consequently reducing Kamel’s revenue, but not Uber’s. The belief at the LUPIs is that, growing exponentially, through adding assets you do not own, will somehow magically increase profitability. This is a fallacy. The LUPIs are reducing the contribution of each value creating asset (a cab, a picker, a cyclist) without reducing the cost to manage that asset. This reduces the willingness of the asset to contribute. This I believe is the crux of the argument between Uber’s Kalanick and Kamel Sidenote: in business school speak LUPIs worsen the asset to sales ratio of the asset owner. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-28/in-video-uber-ceo-argues-with-driver-over-falling-fares?bcomANews=true The Fallacy That Scale Will Solve the Problem To increase revenue without owning assets, from a small base of commissions, these companies and their investors believe they need to scale exponentially. The bigger you are the more pennies you can scrape off more transactions. Instacart needs new shoppers since current shoppers maintain shopping frequency despite the increased . convenience Have you personally shopped more because you have access to Instacart? Guessing your answer is ‘no’. when ordering online, Doordash needs new customers ordering from new restaurants to justify taking cuts of the restaurant revenue. While you might order more food from your regular restaurant So these companies try to grow as big as possible as quickly as possible. More cities, more states, more countries. While losing money. But bigger also comes with the need for more resources to manage the process. These companies look to Amazon. And that’s another mistake. But first, let’s consider another reason why scaling massively does not help these companies. Why Do You Think Fedex and UPS stay Niche? Fedex and UPS stay niche. This issue of scaling while losing money, with no profitability in sight, is a problem that has perennially faced one of the largest organizations in the US: the postal service. As shared in ‘ , the postal service grew out of the need to serve as many people in the country as possible while only taking a small piece of overall transaction. . This fundamental premise is why FedEx and UPS will never take over all of the US postal service business despite the opportunity that exists to do so. There are two ways to make money on this model How The Post Office Created America Scale without increasing your value creation does not help with profitability (lawyers who will pay for overnight service, businesses that have overnight service promises etc). But owning a small niche is not what the VCs who’ve invested in the LUPIs want to hear. They want them to go big and then transfer their loss making engines to the public markets. own a small niche in the market that is willing to pay a premium . It’s why the post office is always pushing stamps (and selling it through other outlets) and always overcharging for tape and boxes. This second approach to making more money is why the LUPIs point to Amazon. But.. create more value to capture more of the value in the chain Amazon is the wrong analog. For a long time . Being a broker, because that is what it truly was as it did not own most of the assets it sold, meant the company only took a small cut of product sales. The company could not increase margins without eating into the margins of sellers, the true asset owners, on its site. So it kept losing money while growing bigger. everyone complained about Amazon losing money took was to increase the value to the asset owner. Amazon its own assets to the sellers, by helping them store their inventory, and could justify capturing more of the value. Sellers offloaded physical storage and logistics to Amazon and, in exchange, Amazon took (takes) more of the . With Amazon Web Services ( right) Amazon has replicated this model to new types of , internet and app companies across the world. The brilliant step Amazon rented pie a $3.5Bn business in its own asset owners The LUPIs do not have this value additive parts to their models. Yet. They stay losing money… This ‘ ’ model is what Uber has tried to replicate by leasing cars to drivers, plowing money into self driving cars etc. Like Amazon, until the brokerage element of the business model becomes just one part of a full stack solution, a full stack that includes asset ownership and rental, LUPIs (and their investors) will have to contend with the loss making nature of the broker model as technology improves information flow. own the resource and rent it out The constraint is not faster horses or sleeker technology. The constraint is that there is only so much money to be shared between all parties when you insert your app (and the back-office that supports that app) between a consumer and the product/service they want to consume. . At some point , and it won’t be the asset owner, producing or delivering the service, or the consumer, who pays for the service. The constraint is that the broker model, even with new technology, is not value additive someone has to be purged from the system Don’t get me wrong, these companies will generate gobs of money along the way. But, much like the Pony Express, the horse will eventually run out of power. Especially when something that is disruptive and isn’t s_plitting the pie into many smaller pieces_ comes along to serve the customer in a different and unexpected way… Your thoughts? Thanks to 99% Invisible for the Pony Express Story and Fola Dada of OjaExpress for the conversation that led to this post! Please like, tweet, share and heart the article if you enjoyed reading it. Sign up for my Polymathic Monthly Newsletter here , you’ll love it.

Why Companies like Lyft, Uber, Postmates, Instacart etc Will Never Be Profitable.

In today's edition: What does research say about how far we are from AGI? News from the usual subjects: Anthropic, Cohere, OpenAI, etc. The freshest AI&ML research papers from the week of Mar 4 — Mar 10 Though the question, “ ” predates the term “artificial intelligence” itself, it saw a significant resurgence on Twitter last week, prompted by the Musk vs. OpenAI lawsuit (Musk accuses OpenAI of abandoning open-source principles and prioritizing profit over safety, hindering the safe development of AGI.) . Today, we will discuss “How Far Are We from Intelligent Visual Deductive Reasoning?” “How Far Are We From Automating Front-End Engineering?” and Stephen Wolfram’s article “Can AI Solve Science?” These papers offer fascinating explorations of the differences between human and artificial intelligence. How far are we from achieving human-level intelligence in machines (or AGI, or ASI)? But far more interesting were the papers and an article that came out last week tackling this question Intelligent Visual Deductive Reasoning In “ ?”, researchers from Apple explore Vision-Language Models (VLMs), like GPT-4V, in visual-based deductive reasoning, a complex yet less studied area, using Raven’s Progressive Matrices (RPMs)*. How Far Are We from Intelligent Visual Deductive Reasoning *Raven’s Progressive Matrices is a nonverbal intelligence test measuring abstract reasoning, using patterns to assess cognitive functioning without language. What caught my attention was the finding that . The paper notes, “ ” This inability to deal with abstract concepts marks a fundamental difference between computational processing and human cognitive abilities. AI systems like VLMs struggle with tasks requiring abstract pattern recognition and deduction VLMs struggle to solve these tasks mainly because they are unable to perceive and comprehend multiple, confounding abstract patterns in RPM examples. Being a sophisticated pattern recognizer doesn’t equate to sentience. The observation that “ ” highlights , suggesting a nuanced aspect of intelligence that current AI lacks. Another intriguing point was the models’ overconfidence. all the tested models never express any level of uncertainty the importance of doubt and uncertainty in human cognition Automating Front-End Engineers In “ ”, researchers from Stanford University, Georgia Tech, Microsoft, and Google DeepMind have developed a benchmark for Design2Code, aiming to evaluate how well multimodal LLMs convert visual designs into code. Here, the replacement of humans came closer. Despite some limitations, there were considerable advancements in using generative AI to convert designs into front-end code. It’s remarkable that “ .” This finding challenges traditional notions of artistic and creative value, Design2Code: How Far Are We From Automating Front-End Engineering? annotators think GPT-4V generated webpages can replace the original reference webpages in 49% of cases in terms of visual appearance and content; and in 64% of cases, GPT-4V generated webpages are considered better questioning whether creativity is uniquely human or can be algorithmically reproduced — or even surpassed. However, . VLMs struggle with “ ” posing questions about understanding and interpretation. significant limitations persist recalling visual elements from the input webpages and generating correct layout designs. So, the important question is actually not how far we are from AGI (whatever it is), but how we embrace human-AI collaboration most effectively. AI Solving Science In that sense, Stephen Wolfram’s blog post “ ” serves as an excellent example. In the very beginning, he plainly states that AI cannot solve all scientific questions. However, there is significant value in AI assisting scientific progress. He discusses how LLMs can serve as a new kind of linguistic interface to computational capabilities, providing high-level “autocomplete” for scientific work. As he usually does, he emphasizes the transformative potential of representing the world computationally and suggests that pockets of computational reducibility* can be found by AI as well. Can AI Solve Science? *A pocket of computational reducibility — a fascinating concept introduced by Wolfram — is a situation or problem within a complex system where, despite the system’s overall unpredictability, predictable patterns or simplified behaviors emerge, allowing for easier understanding or calculation. Wolfram argues that AI can significantly aid scientific discovery by providing new tools for analysis and exploration, but its ability to completely “solve” science is limited by fundamental principles such as computational irreducibility. The future of AI in science lies in its integration with human creativity and understanding, leveraging its strengths to uncover new knowledge within the constraints of what is computationally possible. We might be able to survive without front-end developers (no offense intended), but scientists remain indispensable! To summarize: https://x.com/pmddomingos/status/1766945083314827455?s=20&embedable=true News from The Usual Suspects © Cohere and its commitment to the research community https://x.com/cohere/status/1767275128813928611?s=20&embedable=true Hugging Face Starting an ambitious open robotics project and hiring , a former Tesla scientist, to expand beyond software into robotics, including work on humanoid robots like Tesla’s Optimus. Remi Cadene Offers an amazing tool: https://x.com/maximelabonne/status/1767124527551549860?s=20&embedable=true Russia’s talent is invisible According to “The Global AI Talent Tracker 2.0”, Russia has no chance in the AI race: this analysis Inflection enhances its Pi Inflection , enhancing its personal AI, Pi, with IQ capabilities alongside its empathetic EQ. They claim to compete with GPT-4, achieving significant efficiency and performance improvements, especially in STEM areas, with less computational resource usage. launches Inflection-2.5 Chips TSMC (based in Taiwan), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, is for an Arizona chip plant. This funding, part of the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, aims to boost domestic semiconductor production. TSMC’s $40 billion investment in the plant marks one of the largest foreign investments in U.S. history. expected to receive over $5 billion in U.S. federal grants OpenAI: new members on the board Sam Altman is reinstated as a member of the OpenAI board. , with a rich history as the CEO of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, brings extensive experience in healthcare and philanthropy. , a seasoned executive with roles at Sony Entertainment and as a lawyer, offers legal and entertainment industry insights. , leading Instacart and with a background at Meta Platforms, including as head of Facebook, contributes expertise in technology and e-commerce. This diverse trio enhances OpenAI’s governance with their wide-ranging expertise and perspectives. He is joined by three women: Sue Desmond-Hellmann Nicole Seligman Fidji Simo Elon’s Grok https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1767108624038449405?s=20&embedable=true Anthropic Offers a great collection of prompts in its Prompt library Enjoyed This Story? I write a weekly analysis of the AI world in the newsletter. We aim to equip you with comprehensive knowledge and historical insights, so you can make informed decisions about AI and ML. Turing Post 🎁 Bonus: The freshest research papers, categorized for your convenience Enhancements in Language Models and Multimodal Understanding : Showcases an LLM’s intrinsic ability to understand and generate music, expanding LLMs’ applications beyond text. ChatMusician Read the paper : Demonstrates advanced multimodal understanding by processing extensive contexts of text, video, and audio. Gemini 1.5 Read the paper : Enhances TTS synthesis with a factorized diffusion model for zero-shot natural speech generation. NaturalSpeech 3 Read the paper : Utilizes fine-tuned MLMs for superior image-text data filtering, improving dataset quality for MLM training. Finetuned Multimodal Language Models Are High-Quality Image-Text Data Filters Read the paper : Introduces the first LLM designed for the legal domain, demonstrating proficiency in legal text understanding and generation. SaulLM-7B Read the paper Novel Training and Evaluation Techniques : Proposes a method for scaling instruction tuning in mathematical reasoning, significantly enhancing LLMs’ problem-solving abilities. MathScale Read the paper : Reveals redundancy in LLM layers and proposes a pruning strategy, maintaining performance while reducing model size. ShortGPT Read the paper : Enhances memory efficiency in LLM training without sacrificing performance by applying gradient low-rank projection. GaLore Read the paper : Develops a method for collaborative decoding among multiple LLMs, improving performance across various tasks. Learning to Decode Collaboratively with Multiple Language Models Read the paper : Advocates for training RL value functions through classification instead of regression, boosting performance and scalability. Stop Regressing Read the paper Advances in Generative Models and Data Synthesis : Introduces a framework for generating synthetic multimodal datasets, overcoming limitations in data privacy and diversity. MAGID Read the paper : Trains a generative model to create interactive virtual worlds from text, images, or sketches, advancing interactive environment simulation. Read the paper Genie Scalability and Efficiency in AI Systems : Details a system for training LLMs on over 10,000 GPUs, tackling challenges in training efficiency and stability at large scales. MegaScale Read the paper : Improves State Space Models with dense hidden connections for efficient large language models, enhancing performance with minimal parameter increase. DenseMamba Read the paper Exploring New Frontiers in AI and Machine Learning : Illustrates that planning and prediction in time series can be simplified through learned contrastive representations. Inference via Interpolation Read the paper : Employs simulated trial and error for tool learning, significantly enhancing LLMs’ practical application capabilities. LLMs in the Imaginarium Read the paper : Aims to improve context length generalization in LLMs by refining interpolation techniques for out-of-distribution token positions. Resonance RoPE Read the paper : Enhances the localization of behaviors in LLMs to specific components, improving diagnostic capabilities and model understanding. AtP Read the paper : Investigates using world models for enhancing visual representation learning, beyond reinforcement learning applications. Learning and Leveraging World Models in Visual Representation Learning Read the paper Platforms and Tools for Model Evaluation and Interaction : Provides a platform for evaluating LLMs based on human preferences, offering insights into model rankings through pairwise comparisons. Chatbot Arena Read the paper : Explores enhancing LLMs’ reasoning capabilities using RLHF, comparing different algorithms and reward strategies. Teaching Large Language Models to Reason with Reinforcement Learning Read the paper Also published . here

How Far Are We From Human-level Intelligence in AI?

The final frontier of delivery is going autonomous. As online orders surge and customers demand ever faster times, last-mile logistics is transforming at warp speed. Self-driving cars, drones and robots are invading suburbs worldwide, promising to bring goods to your door within minutes. No longer fiction, the vision of ordering coffee on a whim and seeing it arrive piping hot via robot is becoming reality. Need a package ASAP? Drones may soon deliver overhead. Companies like Yandex are accelerating this revolution by developing cutting-edge autonomous vehicles for last-mile tasks. In this article, we'll take a drive exploring the innovations upending last-mile delivery. We'll look at the technologies and companies at the forefront of this rapid change. We'll also peer into the future to speculate how new advances could push instant gratification to new heights. From Horse-Drawn Carriages to Delivery Drones People had been delivering goods for centuries using animals like horses and camels. Later, trains, ships and cars sped things up. But the last mile - getting items from large vehicles to destinations - remained difficult. E-commerce boomed in the late 1900s, creating demand for fast package shipping. FedEx and UPS rose with planes, trucks, and vans worldwide. Yet online orders grew so much that last-mile challenges also increased. Customers wanted speedier, cheaper, flexible options while costs rose for companies. To meet these problems, firms tried new methods. with free two-day shipping. They also did same-day and one-hour delivery, using instead of employees. Amazon has also experimented with drones, robots and lockers too, seeking better last-mile solutions. Amazon launched Prime in 2005 independent drivers The Last Mile: The Final Frontier of Logistics Last-mile delivery is important for several reasons. First, it is a key factor in customer satisfaction and loyalty. According to a survey by McKinsey, 25% of online shoppers would switch to another retailer if they had a bad delivery experience. Moreover, 56% of millennials said they would pay more for same-day or instant delivery. Therefore, offering fast and reliable last-mile delivery can give a competitive edge to online retailers. Second, last-mile delivery is a major cost driver in logistics. According to some estimates, last-mile delivery accounts for 41% of the total delivery cost and 53% of the total carbon emissions. Reducing the cost and environmental impact of last-mile delivery can improve the profitability and sustainability of online retail. Third, last-mile delivery is a source of . As technology advances and consumer behaviour changes, fresh solutions and players emerge in the last-mile ecosystem. For example, startups like DoorDash, Instacart, and Postmates offer on-demand delivery services for food and groceries. Platforms like Uber Eats, Doordash, and Grubhub connect restaurants with customers and couriers. Companies like Yandex, Starship Technologies, and Nuro develop autonomous vehicles for last-mile delivery. innovation and opportunity The Tech Titans of Today: Yandex, Amazon, and Beyond Two companies that stand out as leaders in last-mile delivery innovation are Yandex and Amazon. Yandex is a Russian internet giant that provides services like search, advertising, e-commerce, maps, cloud computing, and self-driving technology. They've been developing autonomous vehicle technology and currently have a fleet of . These cars have driven over 4 million miles on public roads in Russia, Israel, and the US under various weather and road conditions. With this level of maturity and real-world experience, Yandex is considered one of the global leaders in self-driving development. since 2017 170 self-driving cars Yandex also launched their own delivery robot called Yandex.Rover for transporting small and medium packages autonomously. This robotic option could help automate last-mile delivery within their ecosystem and beyond, providing a sustainable way to deliver food and goods. In total, Yandex has invested approximately into their self-driving division. Recently, they launched Yandex.Rover commercial operations in Skolkovo, a major Russian tech hub. Yandex plans to introduce their autonomous services in Ann Arbor, Michigan and Tel Aviv in the near future as well. $150 million Amazon is another dominant player in e-commerce and technology, known for online retail, streaming, cloud services, AI, and smart devices. They've invested heavily in logistics to speed up and improve delivery. Amazon developed their own delivery network called Amazon Logistics which uses stations, sorting centres, transportation providers, and delivery partners to ship packages independent of traditional carriers. Amazon has also introduced autonomous solutions like , which aims to deliver packages by drone within 30 minutes, and Amazon Scout, a six-wheeled sidewalk robot for navigating neighbourhoods and dropping packages at doorsteps. Other experimental delivery methods from Amazon include in-car/home delivery with and locker/counter pickup with Amazon Hub. Through technological capabilities and their massive customer base, Amazon has become a major force in last-mile delivery. Amazon Prime Air Amazon Key Beyond Yandex and Amazon, companies like , , and are innovating as well. Starship designs small self-driving delivery robots for food, groceries and more across Europe and North America. Nuro partners with retailers to autonomously deliver goods like groceries and prescriptions using their vehicles. And Zipline runs what they claim is the world's largest drone delivery network, transporting medical supplies in Africa and beyond. In the next section, we'll examine some current last-mile delivery case studies. Starship Technologies Nuro Zipline Case Studies from the Front Line: Last-Mile Delivery Today Yandex.Rover in Serbia In June 2023, , Serbia, marking the first time it operated outside of Russia. Yandex partners with local restaurants, cafes, and supermarkets to offer fast, convenient food, grocery, and item delivery to customers via the Yandex app. Customers can track the robot's location and estimated arrival time. Using cameras, lidar and GPS, Yandex.Rover autonomously navigates sidewalks, crosswalks, and traffic lights. Speakers and a screen allow it to communicate with pedestrians and drivers. Its cargo compartment only opens with a unique QR or PIN code provided to the customer. Yandex launched its delivery robot Yandex.Rover in Belgrade This launch was part of Yandex's European expansion strategy. As a leading provider of search, maps, taxi, and food delivery services in Serbia, Yandex aimed to highlight its technological capabilities and offer a unique value with Rover as well. Amazon Prime Air in US, UK, and Italy Amazon Prime Air will integrate drone deliveries into Amazon’s existing fulfilment network, deploying from Same-Day Delivery sites. Amazon customers in Italy, the UK, and an additional U.S. city will soon have the option to get their packages delivered by a drone beginning in late 2024. The Prime Air drone delivery system is expanding to international locations and adding a third city in the United States by the end of next year— specific cities in the U.S. and abroad will be named in the coming months. Zipline in Nigeria In October 2022, through partnerships with the Kaduna State Government and Gates Foundation. Zipline delivers blood, vaccines, medication, and medical supplies from its Kaduna distribution centre to over 1,000 health facilities across the state via 120 km/h flying drones carrying 1.8kg payloads within 30 minutes in all weather. Zipline launched drone services in Nigeria Zipline's Nigeria launch expanded its mission begun in Rwanda in 2016 and Ghana in 2019, where it delivered over 1 million vaccine doses and saved thousands of lives. It aimed to further support universal healthcare in Nigeria. Upcoming Technologies: What’s In the Pipeline? Technology is one of the main drivers of innovation and disruption in last-mile delivery. As technology advances, novel solutions and possibilities emerge that could enhance the efficiency, convenience, and sustainability of last-mile delivery. Here are some of the upcoming technologies that could have a significant impact in the coming years: Hyperloop is a proposed mode of transportation that involves sending pods or capsules through a network of tubes or tunnels at shockingly high speeds, up to 1,200 kilometres per hour. Hyperloop could enable fast and low-cost transportation of goods over long distances, reducing the need for trucks, planes, or trains. Hyperloop could also connect urban areas with rural or remote areas, expanding the reach and accessibility of last-mile delivery. : Hyperloop Blockchain is a distributed ledger technology that enables secure and transparent transactions among multiple parties without intermediaries. Blockchain could improve the traceability, accountability, and efficiency of last-mile delivery by enabling real-time tracking of goods, smart contracts for payments and deliveries, and decentralized platforms for peer-to-peer delivery. : Blockchain 3D printing is a technology that enables the creation of physical objects from digital models by depositing layers of material. 3D printing could revolutionize last-mile delivery by enabling on-demand and localized production of goods, reducing the need for inventory, warehousing, and transportation. 3D printing could also enable customization and personalization of goods, enhancing customer satisfaction and loyalty. : 3D Printing Biotechnology is a technology that involves the manipulation of living organisms or biological systems. Biotechnology could transform last-mile delivery by enabling novel solutions for packaging, preservation, and delivery of goods. For example, biodegradable packaging made from algae or fungi could reduce waste and environmental impact. Bioengineered foods or medicines could extend shelf life and improve quality. Biosensors or biometrics could enable secure and convenient delivery verification. : Biotechnology However, challenges exist - technical and regulatory hurdles, social acceptance, ethics, and cybersecurity risks require careful evaluation before adopting unfamiliar concepts. Strategic Shifts: Predicting the Unpredictable While technology drives change, unpredictable human factors also impact last-mile delivery's future. Shifting consumer behaviours, economic conditions, environmental concerns, politics, and natural disasters create uncertainty, with opportunities and risks. To adapt amid this complexity, companies must strategically pivot. Transitioning focus from products alone to customers' experiences demands deep understanding of needs, personalization, and loyalty-building through positive impact. Transitioning from ownership to access alters business models, as shared subscriptions and rentals replace individual purchases in the circular sharing economy. Platform ecosystems boost availability. Moving operations away from centralization delegates control and fosters innovation through distributed localized partner networks, peer-to-peer crowdsourcing, and community cooperation. However, achieving the right product-service balance with these shifts requires trade-offs. Implementing changes across dispersed stakeholders introduces risks that must be diligently governed. Incentives and resource coordination become more intricate. Careful consideration weighs consequences before wholesale adoption. But navigating humanity's disruptive course demands agility and vision. Strategic flexibility positions resilience amid uncertainty, preparedness navigating both risks and opportunities ahead. With responsibility and diligence, last-mile leaders can help deliver the future people need. The Future is Now One thing is clear - we are witnessing the dawning of a new era. An era where imagination meets innovation, where science fiction becomes a science fact, where the impossible becomes possible. Yesteryear's visions of drones, robots and self-driving vehicles delivering goods on demand have already transformed into today's reality. Pioneers like Yandex, Amazon and Starship have pulled the future into the present and set us boldly on a course we could only dream of just a decade ago. What will the next decade bring? It is impossible to say for certain, but if history is any guide, it may surpass even our most outlandish speculations. The innovations will continuously reshape life as we know it, delivering value to all in their wake. As for the rest of us, our role is clear - embrace change with optimism and curiosity. Keep an open mind for what is to come, everyone!

The Last-Mile Delivery Revolution: What’s Next on the Horizon?

Ian Brady, founder and CEO of , is a standout figure in the tech world, known for his unique blend of innovation and strategic insight. A Stanford alumnus who has taught at its esteemed Design School, Brady's journey is marked by an innate talent for devising novel solutions to complex problems. His journey began with co-founding the fintech giant SoFi, where he reshaped personal finance, and has since taken impressive strides into the realm of health tech with Hologram Sciences. Brady's career is characterized not by mere adaptation to change but by his ability to actively forge new paths at the intersection of complex consumer needs and emerging technology. Hologram Sciences Under Brady's co-founding vision, emerged as a beacon of success in the fintech sector, revolutionizing how personal finance is approached. The company made a name for itself in a crowded market by offering innovative, user-friendly solutions, especially in student loan refinancing. SoFi excelled in simplifying complex financial processes, making them accessible to the masses. This approach not only built a loyal customer base but also set new industry benchmarks. Brady’s role in SoFi's rise to fame underscored his profound understanding of consumer needs and his ability to fulfill them with elegant technological solutions – a skill he seamlessly transitioned into his subsequent ventures. SoFi The inception of Hologram Sciences was sparked by a deeply personal experience in Brady's life. When faced with the challenges of his wife's gestational diabetes diagnosis, Brady saw a significant gap in the care she received. Such a pervasive condition required her to change every aspect of her daily eating habits, but all she got from her doctor was a sheet of paper outlining what she couldn’t eat. It was a moment of realization – health care demanded the kind of personalization and ongoing, daily support that only tech could provide. This led Brady to found , a digital platform focused on personalized nutrition. AVA seamlessly integrates inputs from wearables, diagnostics, and lifestyle questionnaires, then applies a series of customizable algorithms to generate individualized nutrition recommendations tailored to each user’s unique health profile. To make healthy eating even more convenient, AVA integrates with online grocery platforms like Instacart and Amazon Fresh, facilitating turnkey meal plans based on its recommendations. Another key feature of AVA is its Uber-like platform for nutrition, offering real-time access to Registered Dietitians. This capability not only makes dietary consultation highly efficient but also remarkably scalable, allowing personalized nutrition to reach a broader audience effectively. AVA AVA's success and potential as a model for broader health tech innovation did not go unnoticed. Dsm-firmenich acquired AVA in 2019 and, recognizing its broader applications, spun out Hologram Sciences with a substantial $100 million investment. Under Brady's stewardship, Hologram Sciences has emerged as a company at the intersection of health diagnostics, personalized nutrition, and advanced technology. Responding to the increasing demand for personalized health solutions, Brady has strategically positioned Hologram Sciences at the forefront of nutritional wellness innovation. The integration of the AVA platform into their services exemplifies Hologram Sciences’ ability to provide customizable, science-based health solutions. Using sophisticated data analysis, AVA discerns individual behavior and wellness patterns, offering adaptive nutritional guidance and live coaching. Its deployment in the US and Europe showcases the company’s commitment to innovation and user-focused health technologies. "Innovation isn't just about having a groundbreaking idea; it’s about creating the right environment where that idea can flourish. Throughout my career, I've found that the key to growing successful companies lies in the ability to bring together the right people at the right time. I’m a business designer. At Hologram Sciences, for instance, we've seen extraordinary results by combining the expertise of clinical dietitians with AI specialists. This fusion of seemingly disparate worlds is what drives us forward. It’s not just about the individual brilliance of any single specialist, but about how their combined perspectives create solutions that are more than the sum of their parts. This synergy is the cornerstone of our success and a principle I deeply believe in. It’s about crafting a team that’s as diverse and multifaceted as the challenges we aim to solve.” At his core, Brady is a designer. He’s attracted to hard problems that may seem intractable in individuals’ daily lives, and he relishes the creative process of solving them.  His career is characterized by a steadfast commitment to integrating sophisticated technology into practical, everyday solutions, establishing him as a source of inspiration within the technology community. Across the diverse sectors of finance and health, he’s proven his knack for making sophisticated, tech-driven solutions available and effective for a wide audience. Brady will be leading conversations with other health tech innovators at the prestigious 42nd Annual . His presence at this significant event underscores Hologram Sciences’ role as an industry leader in leveraging technology to address critical health challenges and improve patient outcomes. J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference His mission at Hologram Sciences extends beyond using technology as a mere tool; it embodies a commitment to genuinely impact people's lives through innovative health solutions. His vision is not only transforming the landscape of personalized nutrition and healthcare but also ensuring that these advanced health solutions are accessible to everyone in need, thus continuing to drive technological advancements in the health sector. As Brady leads Hologram Sciences into the future, his endeavors are sure to define a new era of health and wellness tailored to individual needs.

Future of Health: Hologram Sciences’ Ian Brady's Leading Role in Gen AI and Precision Nutrition

are everywhere. They have become indispensable in our everyday lives. They are also ubiquitous in various industries, notably e-commerce logistics. Mobile applications Nowadays, apps are redefining how e-commerce is conducted. One of the main reasons for their effectiveness is that these apps help immensely in attracting personnel. The traditional barriers tied to experience and competence levels are significantly diminished. This is, in a large part, because a mobile app introduces a rigid workflow, making it difficult for users to stray from prescribed tasks. Furthermore, these applications enable a high level of oversight, so all activities carried out by the user are thoroughly monitored. Apart from that, they assist in all areas: from product browsing to delivery tracking. They act like the bonding agent that links customers, retailers, and delivery services, allowing instant information exchange and effortless cooperation. For businesses, they enhance operational efficiency, improve customer relations, and provide a competitive advantage. For consumers, they offer a swift, engaging, and user-friendly interface for satisfying their shopping desires. How mobile apps influence e-commerce make different parts of the business, like finding products and delivering them, a lot easier thanks to their simple and clear interfaces. Mobile apps On the frontend, they deliver an engaging and personalized user experience. Advanced algorithms analyze user behavior to recommend products, tailor promotions, and facilitate personalized interactions. Mostly, apps are designed for easy navigation, quick checkouts, and secure payment processing. Many also offer features like wish lists, product comparisons, and customer reviews. On the backend, mobile applications are instrumental in managing inventory, processing orders, handling customer inquiries, and tracking deliveries. They help in making various office tasks more automatic and precise, reducing mistakes and making sure the operations run smoothly. In addition, these apps keep a bunch of helpful information that companies can use to tweak their operations, guess what their customers might want next, and make wise decisions about what's to come. Also, a good many of mobile apps have built-in tools for accessibility. These include voice-enabled search functions, speech synthesis, and the option for high-contrast displays. Such features guarantee that e-commerce platforms cater to the needs of all customers, including those with visual, auditory, or motor difficulties. What's their role? From what we can tell, mobile apps offer a bunch of tools and features that simplify and speed up a lot of operation parts, like taking care of inventory, tracking orders, and sorting out delivery systems. Inventory Management Applications like TradeGecko and Vend offer robust solutions here. These apps synchronize data across multiple sales channels, making it easier to manage stock levels, predict demand, and prevent both overstocking and stockouts. Features such as real-time inventory tracking, automated reordering, and reporting help businesses maintain optimal inventory levels and streamline their supply chain operations. Order Tracking For order tracking, mobile apps have significantly improved transparency and communication between businesses and customers. Applications such as AfterShip and Route offer real-time tracking and automatic updates on shipment progress, giving customers clear visibility of their orders' status. These platforms also allow businesses to customize their tracking pages, reinforcing brand identity and improving customer experience. Delivery Systems Mobile applications have revolutionized the way businesses coordinate their deliveries. Apps like Onfleet and Bringg provide sophisticated dispatching, route optimization, and driver-tracking features. They facilitate efficient delivery operations, reducing costs, improving delivery speed, and, as a result, enhancing customer satisfaction. Mobile apps in scaling One of the most critical challenges in e-commerce is scaling logistics to accommodate business growth. This requires managing larger volumes of orders, delivery routes, inventory, and customer communication, all of which can quickly become complex. Mobile applications help the scaling process. In a sense, they can grow along with a business. As the volume of transactions increases, mobile applications can handle the increased data and complexity without the need for significant investments in new hardware or infrastructure. They enable businesses to manage growth without disrupting existing operations, and their modular nature allows for additional features to be integrated as needed. For example, ShipBob, a logistics platform designed for e-commerce businesses, faces the challenge of managing increased order volume, as business operations grow. ShipBob offers a unified platform where companies can manage orders from various sales channels. The app provides inventory management across multiple warehouses, order management, and even advanced analytics to improve decision-making. With ShipBob, businesses can scale their logistics seamlessly without the headache of dealing with increased complexity. Similarly, applications like EasyPost allow businesses to manage an extensive network of carriers. As businesses expand geographically, they need to work with more delivery services. EasyPost offers API solutions that integrate with numerous carriers, making it easier for businesses to ship worldwide without getting bogged down by the complexity of managing multiple relationships. Sellbrite and Zoho Inventory provide further support for scaling logistics. Sellbrite facilitates multi-channel selling, allowing businesses to list and sell products across numerous online marketplaces from a single interface. This centralized control simplifies the management of increased sales channels as businesses grow. Zoho Inventory, on the other hand, is a robust inventory management solution that can manage the growing complexity of stock control. It handles tasks like inventory tracking, order fulfillment, and also integrates with multiple online sales channels, keeping all systems synchronized as a business scales. Who uses them, and how? ASOS This British online fashion retailer also made great progress in scaling its logistics with a mobile application. They integrated their operations with Metapack, a delivery management software that offers a range of features, including track-and-trace functionality, returns management, and delivery personalization. With Metapack's capabilities, ASOS was able to enhance its delivery process and manage a greater volume of orders. Stitch Fix Stitch Fix, an online personal styling service, used mobile applications to scale its operations and deliver personalized style boxes to customers across the United States. They used an app called Style Shuffle, which allows users to rate clothing and accessory items, thus helping the company gather data about customer preferences. This helped the company streamline its inventory management and improved the efficiency of its operations. Instacart Instacart, a North American leader in online groceries, turned to mobile apps to grow the scale of its operations. They developed their in-house app that connects customers, personal shoppers, and grocery stores for efficient delivery or pickup of groceries. This allowed them to manage a complex logistical challenge of coordinating between multiple stakeholders. As a result, Instacart became able to handle a growing volume of orders and expand their operations. The Home Depot The Home Depot, a leading home improvement retailer, provides another example of successful logistics scaling through the use of mobile applications. Facing increasing demand online, they realize the need to optimize their e-commerce logistics to handle the surge in orders. The company turned to mobile tech. The app they used was Roadie. It’s an Uber-like system that connects businesses with local drivers who can deliver goods on routes they were already taking. The Home Depot turned to Roadie to help make its delivery process smoother and deal with more orders. The company also created their own app that helped customers keep tabs on their orders, find things in stores, and even use augmented reality to see what products would look like in their homes. The payoff was a big boost to The Home Depot's e-commerce operations. Conclusion So, for e-commerce, mobile apps enhance clarity and speed, which results in an improved shopping journey for consumers, as well as businesses becoming able to work more efficiently. It's easy to expect that, with time, apps will gain an even bigger role in e-commerce logistics. We’ll probably be seeing a constant stream of more and more specialized apps, designed to offer even more help. Likely, they will introduce new methods to boost operational efficiency, cut costs, and amplify customer satisfaction. As these changes come, businesses that can use mobile apps well will lead the pack, ready for the opportunities and challenges the future brings. Try to be one of them.

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