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Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions. The dollar-yen exchange rate is the most important macroeconomic indicator. In my last essay, “The Easy Button,” I wrote that something must be done to strengthen the yen. The solution I proposed was that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could swap unlimited amounts of freshly printed dollars with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) for yen. This would allow the BOJ to give unlimited dollar firepower to the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF), with which they could purchase the yen in the global forex markets. While I still believe in the validity of that solution, it appears that the central banking charlatans in charge of the Group of Fools, a.k.a. the Group of Seven (G7), have chosen to convince the market that the interest rate differential between the yen and the dollar, euro, pound, and maple syrup (Canadian) dollar will narrow over time. If the market believes in this future state, it will buy yen and sell everything else. Mission accomplished! For this magic trick to work, the G7 central banks (the Fed, European Central Bank “ECB,” Bank of Canada “BOC,” and Bank of England “BOE”) with “high” policy interest rates must cut them. The critical thing to note is that the BOJ’s policy rate (green) is 0.1%, whereas everyone else is 4-5%. The interest rate differential between the home and foreign currency fundamentally drives exchange rates. From March 2020 until early 2022, errbody played the same game. Free money for all as long as you stay inside with the flu and shoot up that mRNA heroin. When inflation showed in such a big way that the elites could not ignore the pain and suffering of their plebes, the G7 central banks – with the exception of the BOJ – all raised rates aggressively. The BOJ could not raise rates because it owns over 50% of the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) market. JGB prices pumped as rates dumped, making the BOJ appear solvent. However, the highly levered central bank would suffer catastrophic losses if the JGBs it held declined because the BOJ allowed rates to rise. I did some scary maths for readers in “The Easy Button.” This is why if the decision by Bad Gurl Yellen, who calls the shots at the G7, is to reduce the interest rate differential, the only option is for the central banks with “high” policy rates to reduce them. In orthodox central bank thought, cutting rates is good if inflation is below target. What’s the target? For some reason, and I don’t know why, the inflation target for every G7 central bank is 2%, irrespective of differences in culture, growth, debt, demographics, etc. Is the current inflation rate hurtling through 2%? Each colored line represents a different G7 central bank’s inflation target. The horizontal line is at 2%. No G7 country’s manipulated and dishonest government-published inflation statistic is below target. Putting on my technical analysis hat, it appears that G7 inflation is forming a local bottom in the 2-3% range before exploding higher. Taking that chart into consideration, an orthodox central banker would not cut rates at their current levels. However, this week, the BOC and ECB cut rates while inflation was above target. This is strange. Is there some financial disturbance that demands cheaper money? Nope. The BOC cut its policy rate (yellow) while inflation (white) is above the target (red). The ECB cut its policy rate (yellow) while inflation (white) is above the target (red). The problem is the weak yen. I believe Bad Gurl Yellen stopped the rate hike Kabuki theatre performance. It is time to get down to the business of preserving the Pax Americana-led global financial system. If the yen isn’t strengthened, the big bad pinko commie Chinamen will unleash the dragon of a devalued yuan to match their chief export competitor Japan’s super duper cheap yen. In the process, US Treasuries will get sold, and that will be game, set, and match for Pax Americana if it occurs. Next Up The G7 meets in a week. The communique released after the meeting will greatly interest the market. Will they announce some sort of coordinated currency or bond market manipulation exercise to strengthen the yen? Or will they stay quiet but agree that everyone except the BOJ should begin cutting rates? Stay tuned! The big question is whether the Fed will start cutting rates this close to the November US presidential election. Typically, the Fed doesn’t change course this close to an election. However, typically, the favored presidential candidate is not staring down a potential prison sentence, so I’m ready to be flexible in my thinking. If the Fed were to cut at its upcoming June meeting whilst their favored doctored measure of inflation was above target, the dollar-yen would gap lower bigly, which means the yen would strengthen. I don’t believe the Fed is ready to cut rates, given that Slow Joe Biden is getting skewered in the polls over rising prices. American plebes understandably care more that the vegetables they eat are more expensive than the cognitive ability of the vegetable running for reelection. To be fair, Trump is also a vegetable because he loves munching McDonald’s fries and watching Shark Week while doin’ his thang. I still think it’s political suicide to cut rates. My base case is the Fed holds. By the time the dilettantes sit down for a sumptuous meal paid for by their tax-paying subjects on June 13th, the Fed and BOJ will have conducted their June policy meetings. As I said before, I expect no changes to monetary policy from the Fed or the BOJ. The BOE meets shortly after the G7, and while the consensus is they hold their policy rate steady, I think we are in for a surprise to the downside, given the BOC and ECB cuts. The BOE has nothing to lose. The conservative party is going to get their ass handed to them at the next election, so there is no reason to disobey orders from the rulers of their former colony in order to keep a lid on inflation. Exit the Choppa Zone The June central banking fireworks kicked off this week by the BOC and ECB rate cuts will catapult crypto out of the northern hemispheric summer doldrums. This was not my expected base case. I thought the fireworks would start in August, right around when the Fed hosts its Jackson Hole symposium. That is typically the venue where abrupt policy changes are announced going into autumn. The trend is clear. Central banks at the margin are starting easing cycles. We know how to play this game. It’s the same fucking game we have been playing since 2009 when our Lord and Saviour Satoshi gave us the weapon to defeat the TradFi devil. Go long Bitcoin and subsequently shitcoins. The macro landscape has changed vs. my baseline. Therefore, my strategy shall change as well. For the Maelstrom portfolio projects, who asked for my opinion on whether to launch their tokens now or later. I say, Let’s Fucking Go! For my excess liquid crypto synthetic-dollar cash, a.k.a. Ethena’s USD (USDe) that’s earning some phat APYs, it is time to deploy it again on conviction shitcoins. Of course, I’ll tell readers what those are after I have purchased them. But suffice it to say, the crypto bull is reawakening and is about to gore the hides of profligate central bankers. Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions. Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions. The dollar-yen exchange rate is the most important macroeconomic indicator. In my last essay, “ The Easy Button ,” I wrote that something must be done to strengthen the yen. The solution I proposed was that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could swap unlimited amounts of freshly printed dollars with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) for yen. This would allow the BOJ to give unlimited dollar firepower to the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF), with which they could purchase the yen in the global forex markets. The Easy Button The Easy Button While I still believe in the validity of that solution, it appears that the central banking charlatans in charge of the Group of Fools, a.k.a. the Group of Seven (G7), have chosen to convince the market that the interest rate differential between the yen and the dollar, euro, pound, and maple syrup (Canadian) dollar will narrow over time. If the market believes in this future state, it will buy yen and sell everything else. Mission accomplished! For this magic trick to work, the G7 central banks (the Fed, European Central Bank “ECB,” Bank of Canada “BOC,” and Bank of England “BOE”) with “high” policy interest rates must cut them. The critical thing to note is that the BOJ’s policy rate (green) is 0.1%, whereas everyone else is 4-5%. The interest rate differential between the home and foreign currency fundamentally drives exchange rates. From March 2020 until early 2022, errbody played the same game. Free money for all as long as you stay inside with the flu and shoot up that mRNA heroin. When inflation showed in such a big way that the elites could not ignore the pain and suffering of their plebes, the G7 central banks – with the exception of the BOJ – all raised rates aggressively. The BOJ could not raise rates because it owns over 50% of the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) market. JGB prices pumped as rates dumped, making the BOJ appear solvent. However, the highly levered central bank would suffer catastrophic losses if the JGBs it held declined because the BOJ allowed rates to rise. I did some scary maths for readers in “ The Easy Button .” The Easy Button The Easy Button This is why if the decision by Bad Gurl Yellen, who calls the shots at the G7, is to reduce the interest rate differential, the only option is for the central banks with “high” policy rates to reduce them. In orthodox central bank thought, cutting rates is good if inflation is below target. What’s the target? For some reason, and I don’t know why, the inflation target for every G7 central bank is 2%, irrespective of differences in culture, growth, debt, demographics, etc. Is the current inflation rate hurtling through 2%? Each colored line represents a different G7 central bank’s inflation target. The horizontal line is at 2%. No G7 country’s manipulated and dishonest government-published inflation statistic is below target. Putting on my technical analysis hat, it appears that G7 inflation is forming a local bottom in the 2-3% range before exploding higher. Taking that chart into consideration, an orthodox central banker would not cut rates at their current levels. However, this week, the BOC and ECB cut rates while inflation was above target. This is strange. Is there some financial disturbance that demands cheaper money? Nope. The BOC cut its policy rate (yellow) while inflation (white) is above the target (red). The BOC cut its policy rate (yellow) while inflation (white) is above the target (red). The ECB cut its policy rate (yellow) while inflation (white) is above the target (red). The ECB cut its policy rate (yellow) while inflation (white) is above the target (red). The problem is the weak yen. I believe Bad Gurl Yellen stopped the rate hike Kabuki theatre performance. It is time to get down to the business of preserving the Pax Americana-led global financial system. If the yen isn’t strengthened, the big bad pinko commie Chinamen will unleash the dragon of a devalued yuan to match their chief export competitor Japan’s super duper cheap yen. In the process, US Treasuries will get sold, and that will be game, set, and match for Pax Americana if it occurs. Next Up The G7 meets in a week. The communique released after the meeting will greatly interest the market. Will they announce some sort of coordinated currency or bond market manipulation exercise to strengthen the yen? Or will they stay quiet but agree that everyone except the BOJ should begin cutting rates? Stay tuned! The big question is whether the Fed will start cutting rates this close to the November US presidential election. Typically, the Fed doesn’t change course this close to an election. However, typically, the favored presidential candidate is not staring down a potential prison sentence, so I’m ready to be flexible in my thinking. If the Fed were to cut at its upcoming June meeting whilst their favored doctored measure of inflation was above target, the dollar-yen would gap lower bigly, which means the yen would strengthen. I don’t believe the Fed is ready to cut rates, given that Slow Joe Biden is getting skewered in the polls over rising prices. American plebes understandably care more that the vegetables they eat are more expensive than the cognitive ability of the vegetable running for reelection. To be fair, Trump is also a vegetable because he loves munching McDonald’s fries and watching Shark Week while doin’ his thang. I still think it’s political suicide to cut rates. My base case is the Fed holds. By the time the dilettantes sit down for a sumptuous meal paid for by their tax-paying subjects on June 13th, the Fed and BOJ will have conducted their June policy meetings. As I said before, I expect no changes to monetary policy from the Fed or the BOJ. The BOE meets shortly after the G7, and while the consensus is they hold their policy rate steady, I think we are in for a surprise to the downside, given the BOC and ECB cuts. The BOE has nothing to lose. The conservative party is going to get their ass handed to them at the next election, so there is no reason to disobey orders from the rulers of their former colony in order to keep a lid on inflation. Exit the Choppa Zone The June central banking fireworks kicked off this week by the BOC and ECB rate cuts will catapult crypto out of the northern hemispheric summer doldrums. This was not my expected base case. I thought the fireworks would start in August, right around when the Fed hosts its Jackson Hole symposium. That is typically the venue where abrupt policy changes are announced going into autumn. The trend is clear. Central banks at the margin are starting easing cycles. We know how to play this game. It’s the same fucking game we have been playing since 2009 when our Lord and Saviour Satoshi gave us the weapon to defeat the TradFi devil. Go long Bitcoin and subsequently shitcoins. The macro landscape has changed vs. my baseline. Therefore, my strategy shall change as well. For the Maelstrom portfolio projects, who asked for my opinion on whether to launch their tokens now or later. I say, Let’s Fucking Go! For my excess liquid crypto synthetic-dollar cash, a.k.a. Ethena’s USD (USDe) that’s earning some phat APYs, it is time to deploy it again on conviction shitcoins. Of course, I’ll tell readers what those are after I have purchased them. But suffice it to say, the crypto bull is reawakening and is about to gore the hides of profligate central bankers.

Group of Fools

বোকাদের দল

Gruppe von Narren

grupo de tontos

Groupe de fous

मूर्खों का समूह

愚か者の集団

바보들의 그룹

Grupo de tolos

Группа дураков

Aptallar Grubu

Nhóm ngu ngốc

一群傻瓜

This paper is available on arxiv under CC 4.0 license.
Authors:
(1) Z. Jennings, Astrophysics Group, Keele University, Staffordshire, ST5 5BG, UK (E-mail: z.jennings@keele.ac.uk);
(2) J. Southworth, Astrophysics Group, Keele University, Staffordshire, ST5 5BG, UK;
(3) K. Pavlovski, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia;
(4) T. Van Reeth, Institute of Astronomy, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200D, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium. Table of Links Abstract and Intro
Observation
Orbital Ephemeris
Radial Velocity Analysis
Spectral Analysis
Analysis of the Light Curve
Physical Properties
Asteroseismic Analysis
Discussion
Conclusion, Data Availability, Acknowledgments, and References
Appendix A: Ephemeris Determination
Appendix B: Iteratively Prewhitened Frequencies
Appendix C: Detected Tidally Perturbed Pulsations 2 OBSERVATIONS 2.1 Photometry The Kepler space telescope (Koch et al. 2010) was launched in March 2009 with the primary aim of detecting Earth-like extrasolar planets around solar-like stars. However, the mission has also provided a huge amount of high-quality data on stars and stellar systems (Hong et al. 2022). The data were collected using two modes of observation (Gilliland et al. 2010), long cadence (29.5 min sampling rate) and short cadence (58.5 s sampling rate). To keep the ht). solar arrays pointed toward the Sun during its Earth-trailing heliocentric orbit, the spacecraft was rotated by 90◦ every three months (one quarter). Primary functions of the Kepler photometric analysis module of the Kepler science data processing pipeline are responsible for generating the Simple Aperture Photometric (SAP) flux time series of the observed objects, while secondary photometric analysis functions performed by the Pre-Search Data Conditioning (PDC) module support systematic error correction, giving rise to the PDCSAP fluxes (see Jenkins 2017, for further details on the SAP and PDCSAP measurements). KIC 9851944 was observed by Kepler in six quarters (0, 12, 13, 16). The light curves from the Kepler quarters and TESS sectors mentioned above were downloaded from the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes (MAST) and are used in Section 3 to determine the ephemeris of the system, as well as Section 6 to obtain the final model of the light curve. Both SAP and PDCSAP measurements are available; the SAP and PDCSAP fluxes were similar, which we verified by inspecting the SAP fluxes with the PDCSAP fluxes overplotted after dividing them by their median flux values to put them on the same scale. Thus, we used the SAP measurements to avoid possible biases due to the additional processing applied to the PDCSAP data. A second-order polynomial was fitted to fluxes that correspond to positions of quadrature, i.e., the maximum of the ellipsoidal brightening, to estimate systematic trends present in the light curves. Subtracting the difference between this polynomial and the median flux of the light curve yields a model for the local median level of out-of-eclipse flux. This model was then divided out to remove systematic trends. The residual value of a smoothed version of the light curve subtracted from the observed light curve was calculated and observed fluxes that deviated by more than 1% were rejected. Fluxes were converted to magnitudes and errors were propagated following Prša (2018). The short cadence Kepler light curve from Quarter 0 and the two-minute cadence TESS light curve from Sector 15, after performing these operations, are shown in the top and middle panels of Fig.1, respectively. ely. KIC 9851944 was also observed by the Wide Angle Search for Planets (WASP) telescope (Butters et al. 2010) between May 2007 and July 2010. WASP consisted of two robotic observatories, one in the Nothern Hemisphere at Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos on La Palma and the other at the South African Astronomical Observatory (SAAO), each with eight 20 mm telescopes on a single mount. Observations of KIC 9851944 collected by WASP between May 2007 and July 2007 as well as between June 2008 and July 2008 are shown in the bottom panels of Fig.1 phase folded about the orbital period determined in Section 3. The data collected by WASP for KIC 9851944 were only used to constrain the times of primary minima when performing preliminary fits to the Kepler and TESS light curves in Section 3, to determine the orbital ephemeris. 2.2 Spectroscopy A set of 33 spectroscopic observations were obtained for the target using the Hamilton échelle spectrograph (Vogt 1987) on the Shane 3 m telescope at Lick Observatory during two observing runs, one in July 2012 and the other in June 2013. The data were obtained using CCD chip no. 4, giving a wavelength coverage of 340 – 900 nm over 89 échelle orders at a resolving power of R ≈ 60000. The data were reduced using the standard pipeline for the spectrograph (e.g. Fischer et al. 2014). Flat fields were obtained with a quartz lamp and divided from the spectra. The wavelength calibration was obtained from exposures of a thorium-argon emission lamp taken roughly every hour during the night. Details for the normalization of the one-dimensional extracted spectra are given in Sections 4 and 5 because each of those components of the analysis used different approaches. Table 1 gives the epochs of each of the 33 spectrosopic observations as well as the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N), estimated as the square root of the counts close to the peak of the best-exposed échelle order. Also given are the corresponding RVs of each component that are derived in Section 4. This paper is available on arxiv under CC 4.0 license. Authors: (1) Z. Jennings, Astrophysics Group, Keele University, Staffordshire, ST5 5BG, UK (E-mail: z.jennings@keele.ac.uk); (2) J. Southworth, Astrophysics Group, Keele University, Staffordshire, ST5 5BG, UK; (3) K. Pavlovski, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia; (4) T. Van Reeth, Institute of Astronomy, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200D, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium. This paper is available on arxiv under CC 4.0 license. Authors: Authors: (1) Z. Jennings, Astrophysics Group, Keele University, Staffordshire, ST5 5BG, UK (E-mail: z.jennings@keele.ac.uk); (2) J. Southworth, Astrophysics Group, Keele University, Staffordshire, ST5 5BG, UK; (3) K. Pavlovski, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia; (4) T. Van Reeth, Institute of Astronomy, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200D, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium. Table of Links Abstract and Intro Observation Orbital Ephemeris Radial Velocity Analysis Spectral Analysis Analysis of the Light Curve Physical Properties Asteroseismic Analysis Discussion Conclusion, Data Availability, Acknowledgments, and References Appendix A: Ephemeris Determination Appendix B: Iteratively Prewhitened Frequencies Appendix C: Detected Tidally Perturbed Pulsations Abstract and Intro Abstract and Intro Observation Observation Orbital Ephemeris Orbital Ephemeris Radial Velocity Analysis Radial Velocity Analysis Spectral Analysis Spectral Analysis Analysis of the Light Curve Analysis of the Light Curve Physical Properties Physical Properties Asteroseismic Analysis Asteroseismic Analysis Discussion Discussion Conclusion, Data Availability, Acknowledgments, and References Conclusion, Data Availability, Acknowledgments, and References Appendix A: Ephemeris Determination Appendix A: Ephemeris Determination Appendix B: Iteratively Prewhitened Frequencies Appendix B: Iteratively Prewhitened Frequencies Appendix C: Detected Tidally Perturbed Pulsations Appendix C: Detected Tidally Perturbed Pulsations 2 OBSERVATIONS 2.1 Photometry The Kepler space telescope (Koch et al. 2010) was launched in March 2009 with the primary aim of detecting Earth-like extrasolar planets around solar-like stars. However, the mission has also provided a huge amount of high-quality data on stars and stellar systems (Hong et al. 2022). The data were collected using two modes of observation (Gilliland et al. 2010), long cadence (29.5 min sampling rate) and short cadence (58.5 s sampling rate). To keep the ht). solar arrays pointed toward the Sun during its Earth-trailing heliocentric orbit, the spacecraft was rotated by 90◦ every three months (one quarter). Primary functions of the Kepler photometric analysis module of the Kepler science data processing pipeline are responsible for generating the Simple Aperture Photometric (SAP) flux time series of the observed objects, while secondary photometric analysis functions performed by the Pre-Search Data Conditioning (PDC) module support systematic error correction, giving rise to the PDCSAP fluxes (see Jenkins 2017, for further details on the SAP and PDCSAP measurements). KIC 9851944 was observed by Kepler in six quarters (0, 12, 13, Kepler 16). The light curves from the Kepler quarters and TESS sectors mentioned above were downloaded from the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes (MAST) and are used in Section 3 to determine the ephemeris of the system, as well as Section 6 to obtain the final model of the light curve. Both SAP and PDCSAP measurements are available; the SAP and PDCSAP fluxes were similar, which we verified by inspecting the SAP fluxes with the PDCSAP fluxes overplotted after dividing them by their median flux values to put them on the same scale. Thus, we used the SAP measurements to avoid possible biases due to the additional processing applied to the PDCSAP data. A second-order polynomial was fitted to fluxes that correspond to positions of quadrature, i.e., the maximum of the ellipsoidal brightening, to estimate systematic trends present in the light curves. Subtracting the difference between this polynomial and the median flux of the light curve yields a model for the local median level of out-of-eclipse flux. This model was then divided out to remove systematic trends. The residual value of a smoothed version of the light curve subtracted from the observed light curve was calculated and observed fluxes that deviated by more than 1% were rejected. Fluxes were converted to magnitudes and errors were propagated following Prša (2018). The short cadence Kepler light curve from Quarter 0 and the two-minute cadence TESS light curve from Sector 15, after performing these operations, are shown in the top and middle panels of Fig.1, respectively. ely. KIC 9851944 was also observed by the Wide Angle Search for Planets (WASP) telescope (Butters et al. 2010) between May 2007 and July 2010. WASP consisted of two robotic observatories, one in the Nothern Hemisphere at Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos on La Palma and the other at the South African Astronomical Observatory (SAAO), each with eight 20 mm telescopes on a single mount. Observations of KIC 9851944 collected by WASP between May 2007 and July 2007 as well as between June 2008 and July 2008 are shown in the bottom panels of Fig.1 phase folded about the orbital period determined in Section 3. The data collected by WASP for KIC 9851944 were only used to constrain the times of primary minima when performing preliminary fits to the Kepler and TESS light curves in Section 3, to determine the orbital ephemeris. 2.2 Spectroscopy A set of 33 spectroscopic observations were obtained for the target using the Hamilton échelle spectrograph (Vogt 1987) on the Shane 3 m telescope at Lick Observatory during two observing runs, one in July 2012 and the other in June 2013. The data were obtained using CCD chip no. 4, giving a wavelength coverage of 340 – 900 nm over 89 échelle orders at a resolving power of R ≈ 60000. The data were reduced using the standard pipeline for the spectrograph (e.g. Fischer et al. 2014). Flat fields were obtained with a quartz lamp and divided from the spectra. The wavelength calibration was obtained from exposures of a thorium-argon emission lamp taken roughly every hour during the night. Details for the normalization of the one-dimensional extracted spectra are given in Sections 4 and 5 because each of those components of the analysis used different approaches. Table 1 gives the epochs of each of the 33 spectrosopic observations as well as the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N), estimated as the square root of the counts close to the peak of the best-exposed échelle order. Also given are the corresponding RVs of each component that are derived in Section 4.

Physical Properties of the Eclipsing Binary KIC 9851944: Observation

Uncovering Gender Bias within Journalist-Politician Interaction in Indian Twitter: Abstract & Intro

ভারতীয় টুইটারে সাংবাদিক-রাজনীতিবিদ মিথস্ক্রিয়া মধ্যে লিঙ্গ পক্ষপাত উন্মোচন: বিমূর্ত এবং ভূমিকা

Aufdeckung geschlechtsspezifischer Voreingenommenheit in der Interaktion zwischen Journalisten und Politikern im indischen Twitter: Zusammenfassung und Einführung

Descubriendo el sesgo de género en la interacción entre periodistas y políticos en Twitter indio: resumen e introducción

Découvrir les préjugés sexistes dans les interactions journalistes-hommes politiques sur Twitter indien : résumé et introduction

भारतीय ट्विटर पर पत्रकार-राजनेता के बीच बातचीत में लैंगिक पूर्वाग्रह को उजागर करना: सार और परिचय

インドのツイッターにおけるジャーナリストと政治家の交流におけるジェンダーバイアスの解明：概要と序文

인도 트위터의 언론인-정치인 상호작용에서 성 편견 발견: 요약 및 소개

Descobrindo o preconceito de gênero na interação jornalista-político no Twitter indiano: resumo e introdução

Выявление гендерных предубеждений во взаимодействии журналистов и политиков в индийском Твиттере: Аннотация и введение

Hint Twitter'ında Gazeteci-Politikacı Etkileşimindeki Cinsiyet Önyargısını Ortaya Çıkarmak: Özet ve Giriş

Khám phá sự thiên vị giới tính trong tương tác giữa nhà báo và chính trị gia trên Twitter của Ấn Độ: Tóm tắt & Giới thiệu

揭示印度推特上记者与政客互动中的性别偏见：摘要与简介

Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions. Mayday Mayday Mayday Some of you degens were screaming “Mayday” as you watched crypto markets puke from mid-April until the present. There was so much pain that momentum-chasing paper hands like proclaimed that they were “done” with crypto. As if – she will dutifully return posting crypto thirst traps once Bitcoin is back trending up and to the right in short order. Irene Zhao The price action played out as I expected. US tax season, consternation over what the Fed will do, the Bitcoin halving sell the news event, and a slowdown of US Bitcoin ETF asset under management (AUM) growth coalesced over the prior fortnight to produce a well-needed market cleansing. The tourists will sit out the next phase on the beach… if they can afford it. Us hard motherfuckers will hodl, and if possible, accumulate more of our favorite crypto reserve assets such as Bitcoin and Ether, and/or high-beta shitcoins like Solana, Dog Wif Hat, and dare I say Dogecoin (the OG doggie coin). This is not meant to be a fully fleshed-out global macroeconomics, politics, and crypto essay. Rather, I want to highlight why the US Treasury, Federal Reserve (Fed), and the Republic First Bank bailout provide fiat liquidity or a path to increased fiat liquidity now and into the near future. I will quickly step through a few tables that underpin my boooolishness. QT Taper = QE When the average muppet equates quantitative easing (QE) with printing money and inflation, it spells trouble for the elites. Therefore they need to change up the nomenclature and method of providing the junkie, that is, the fiat financial system, its hit of monetary heroin. Reducing the pace of asset runoff from the Fed’s balance in accordance with their quantitative tightening (QT) program sounds benign. But make no mistake – by reducing the rate of QT from $95 billion to $60 billion per month, the Fed is essentially adding $35 billion per month of dollar liquidity. When you combine the Interest on Reserve Balances, RRP payments, and interest payments on US Treasury debt, the reduction in QT increases the amount of stimulus provided to the global asset markets each month. The Fed announced this week that it would taper QT by the aforementioned amounts at its May 2024 meeting. Using a handy chart, let us examine the dollar liquidity situation before and after the meeting. Before Size of Facility Rate PA Monthly Amount (USD Bn) Interest Expense NA NA $88.27 IORB 3271.706 5.40% $14.72 RRP 438.148 5.30% $1.94 QT NA NA -$77.59 Total $27.34 Note that the QT line item is the actual monthly average taper amount in 2024 based on the . As you can see, the Fed has undershot the monthly target of $95 billion. It begs the question of whether the target is $60 billion per month and whether the Fed will undershoot that as well. Undershooting the target pace is positive for dollar liquidity. Fed’s weekly reported balance sheet After Size of Facility Rate PA Monthly Amount (USD Bn) Interest Expense NA NA $88.27 IORB 3271.706 5.40% $14.72 RRP 438.148 5.30% $1.94 QT NA NA -$60.00 Total $44.93 Increase in $ Liq per Month 64.32% “High” interest rates, which require the Fed and US Treasury to hand out interest payment stimmies to rich folks, coupled with a reduction in the pace of QT, are even more stimulative. Please read “ ” to understand what each line item means. Kite or Board That’s what beta cuck towel boy Powell is up to. What about his dominatrix, Bad Gurl Yellen? US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) Because the US is in the throes of fiscal dominance, Bad Gurl Yellen's pronouncements are more important than those of any other monetary official. Every quarter, the US Treasury publishes the QRA to guide the market as to the quantity and type of debt that must be issued to fund the government. Before the 2Q24 QRA, I had questions: Would Yellen be borrowing more or less than last quarter, and why? What is the maturity profile of the debt to be issued? What would be the target Treasury General Account (TGA) balance? Question 1: During the April – June 2024 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $243 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $750 billion. The borrowing estimate is $41 billion higher than announced in January 2024, largely due to lower cash receipts, partially offset by a higher beginning of-quarter cash balance. [2] [3] Source: QRA That’s no bueno if you are a holder of Treasuries. There will be more supply, and tax receipts were underwhelming despite the roaring US economy and stonk markets. This hastens the pace at which the bond market throws a fit and ratchets long-end rates markedly higher. Yellen’s response to that will be some form of yield curve control, and that’s when Bitcoin begins its ascent for realz to $1 million. Question 2: Given current fiscal forecasts, the Treasury Department expects to increase the 4-, 6-, and 8-week bill auction sizes in the coming days to ensure sufficient liquidity to meet our one-week cash needs around the end of May.  Then, in anticipation of the June 15th non-withheld and corporate tax date, Treasury expects to implement modest reductions to short-dated bill auction sizes during early to mid-June.  Subsequently, throughout July, the Treasury Department anticipates returning short-dated bill auction sizes to levels at or near the highs from February and March. Source: QRA Yellen needs to increase the issuance of short-dated bills because the market couldn’t handle it if she swung her BSD at the long end of the curve. The added benefit of issuing more bills is that it drains the RRP, which adds dollar liquidity to the system. To understand why, please read “ ”. Bad Gurl Question 3: During the July – September 2024 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $847 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $850 billion. Source: QRA The TGA balance target is $850 billion. It currently stands at $941 billion, which equates to a roughly $90 billion reduction over the next three months. To understand why, please read “ .” Bad Gurl The impact of this QRA is mildly dollar liquidity positive. It is not a bombshell like the November 2023 announcement, which sent bond, stonk, and crypto prices flying. But it will help pump our bags slowly over time. Republic First Bank Have you ever heard of this tiny, piece-of-shit bank? I hadn’t, until they went bust. The fact that another non-Too Big To Fail (TBTF) bank failed is not noteworthy. But what is important is the response of the monetary mandarins in charge of the Pax Americana. The US government (via the FDIC) insures deposits in any US bank up to $250,000. When a bank fails, uninsured depositors should get zeroed. However, that is politically unpalatable in an election year, especially if the powers that be have continuously assured the public the banking system is sound. Here is an excerpt from the : FDIC As of January 31, 2024, Republic Bank had approximately $6 billion in total assets and $4 billion in total deposits.  The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) related to the failure of Republic Bank will be $667 million. The FDIC determined that compared to other alternatives, Fulton Bank’s acquisition of Republic Bank is the least costly resolution for the DIF, an insurance fund created by Congress in 1933 and managed by the FDIC to protect the deposits at the nation’s banks. Understanding what happened in plain speech requires reading between the lines. Fulton agreed to purchase Republic First and ensure all depositors were made whole only if the FDIC ponied up some cash. The FDIC insurance gave Fulton $667 million so that all Republic First depositors were made whole. Why is the insurance fund being used for all deposits when some deposits were not insured? The reason is that if all deposits weren’t covered, then a bank run would start. Any large depositor with a non-TBTF bank would instantly transfer money to a TBTF bank, which sport a full government guarantee of all deposits. Subsequently, thousands of banks would go under across the country. That is not a good look in a democratic republic with elections every two years. Once the public is educated that the bank failures are 100% due to Fed and US Treasury policy, some overpaid idiots will have to get real jobs. Rather than suffer at the ballot box, those in charge essentially now guarantee all deposits in the US banking system. That is a stealth addition of $6.7 trillion, as this is the amount of uninsured deposits as . reported by the St. Louis Fed This leads to money printing because the FDIC’s insurance fund doesn’t have $6.7 trillion. Maybe they need to ask CZ for advice because funds ain’t SAFU. Once the fund is exhausted, the FDIC will borrow money from the Fed, which will print money to satisfy the loan. Like the other stealth money printing policies discussed in this essay, there is no massive liquidity injection today. However, we now know with full confidence that trillions of contingent liabilities have been added to the Fed’s balance sheet, which will be funded with printed money. Buy in May, Go Away! The slow addition of billions of dollars of liquidity each month will dampen negative price movement from here on out. While I don’t expect crypto to fully realize the recent US monetary announcements' inflationary nature immediately, I expect prices to bottom, chop, and begin a slow grind higher. As the northern-hemispheric summer kicks into full gear, crypto muppets will be out enjoying being pre-rich at all the usual hot spots. I see you at DC10, Scorpios, Chiltern … I see you playa. I certainly won’t be babysitting Bitcoin when I could be two-stepping. The recent intense puke out provides an excellent opportunity to unstake my and spend synthetic dollars on high beta shitcoins. USDe I’m buying Solana and doggie coins for momentum trading positions. For longer-term shitcoin positions, I’m upping my allocations in Pendle* and will identify other tokens that are “on sale.” I will use the rest of May to increase my exposure. And then it’s time to set it, forget it, and wait for the market to appreciate the inflationary nature of the recent US monetary policy announcements. 同志们好 China is not to be forgotten. The CNY will be devalued, but it won’t be against USD; rather, it will be against gold and Bitcoin. I will explain this theory in an in-depth essay later this summer. For those of you who need bullet points on my predictions, here you go: Yes Did Bitcoin hit a local low at around $58,600 earlier this week? A rally to above $60,000 and then range-bound price action between $60,000 and $70,000 until August. What is your price prediction? Yes. Are the recent Fed and Treasury policy announcements stealth forms of money printing? Yachtzee!! Disclaimer: I am an advisor to and investor in Pendle, and have received Pendle tokens as compensation for my advisory services.

Mayday

মে দিবস

Maifeiertag

May Day

Au secours

मई दिवस

メーデー

노동절

Socorro

Первое мая

Mayıs günü

ngày tháng năm

劳动节

Left Curve

বাম বক্ররেখা

Linkskurve

Curva izquierda

Courbe gauche

बायां वक्र

左カーブ

왼쪽 곡선

Curva Esquerda

Левая кривая

Sol Eğri

Đường cong trái

左弯道

Why You Should Forget Everything You Know About Problem Solving

Ping Ping Ping That is the sound of my phone alerting me to overnight snowfall at the various Hokkaido ski resorts I monitor. While this sound brings me immense joy in January and February, in March, it brings only FOMO. I decamped from Hokkaido in early March for the past few ski seasons. My recent experience taught me that Mother Nature turns on the heat circa March 1st. I’m a primadonna skier who only likes the driest and deepest pow. However, this season, Gaia changed up big time. There was a brutal warm spell in February that rekt the snow back. The cold weather only returned towards the end of the month. But frigid temperatures came back in March, accompanied by 10 to 30cm dumps of freshie pow pow every night. Hence, the reason why my phone was blowing up. Sitting in various South East Asian hot and humid countries throughout March, I kept foolishly checking the app and ruing my decision to leave the slopes. The April thaw finally occurred in earnest, and with it, the end to my FOMO. As readers know, my ski experiences act as metaphors for my macro and crypto trading book. I previously wrote that the cessation of the US Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) on March 12th would cause a global market rout. The BTFP was cancelled, but a vicious sell-off in crypto specifically did not occur. Bitcoin broke $70,000 decisively and topped out around $74,000. Solana kept pumping alongside various doggie and kitty meme coins. My timing was wrong, but like the ski season, the unexpected favorable March conditions will not be repeated in April. While I love winter, summer brings joy as well. The onset of northern hemispheric summer brings sporting bliss as I reorient time towards playing tennis, surfing, and kiteboarding. Summer will usher in a renewed gusher of fiat liquidity due to the policies of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and Treasury. I will briefly outline my mental map on how and why April will experience extreme weakness in risky asset markets. For those intrepid enough to short crypto, the macro setup is favorable. While I will not outright short the market, I have closed in profit several shitcoin and memecoin trading positions. From now until May 1st, I will be in a no-trade zone. I hope to return in May with dry powder ready to deploy to position myself for the bull market to begin in earnest. Tricksters The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) ended a few weeks ago, but no US, non-Too-Big-to-Fail (TBTF) banks have subsequently faced any real stress. That is because high priests of fugazi finance have a bag of tricks they will use to surreptitiously print money in order to bail out the financial system. I will peek behind the curtain and explain how they are expanding the USD fiat money supply, which will underpin the general rise of crypto and stonks until the end of the year. While the end result is always money printing, the journey is not without periods where liquidity growth slows, providing a negative catalyst for risk markets. By going through the bag of tricks and estimating when the rabbit will be pulled from the hat, we can guestimate when there will be periods where the free market is allowed to operate. The Discount Window The Fed and most other central banks operate a facility known as the discount window. Banks and other covered financial institutions who are in need of funds can pledge eligible securities to the Fed in exchange for cash. By and large, the discount window, for now, only accepts US Treasuries (UST) and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Assume that a bank is fucked because a bunch of Pierce & Pierce boomer muppets runs it. The bank holds a UST that was worth $100 when purchased but is currently worth $80. The bank is in need of cash to satisfy deposit outflows. Rather than declaring bankruptcy, the dogshit insolvent bank can tap the discount window. The bank swaps the $80 UST for $80 of dolla dolla bills because under the current rules the bank receives the market value of pledged securities. To deprecate the BTFP and remove the associated negative stigma without increasing the risk of bank failures, the Fed and US Treasury now encourage troubled banks to tap the discount window instead. However, under the current collateral terms, the discount window is not as attractive as the recently expired BTFP. Let’s go back to our example above to understand why. Remember that the UST’s value declined from $100 to $80, which means the bank has an unrealized loss of $20. Initially the $100 of UST was funded with $100 of deposits. But now the UST is worth $80; therefore, the bank would be short $20 if all the depositors fled. Under the BTFP rules, the bank receives par for underwater USTs. That means a UST worth $80, when delivered to the Fed, is swapped for $100 of cash. This restores the solvency of the bank. But the discount window only gives $80 for a UST worth $80. The $20 loss is still there, and the bank remains insolvent. Given that the Fed can unilaterally change the collateral rules to equalize the treatment of assets by the BTFP and discount window, by greenlighting the use of the discount window by the insolvent banking system, the Fed continued the stealth banking bailout. Therefore, the Fed has essentially solved the BTFP problem; the entire UST and MBS balance sheet of the insolvent US banking system (I estimate at $4 trillion) will be supported when needed by money printed to finance loans through the discount window. This is why I believe the markets haven’t forced any non-TBTF banks into bankruptcy post-March 12th, when the BTFP ended. Bank Capital Requirements Banks are often called upon to finance governments who offer bonds at yields less than nominal GDP. But why would private for-profit entities buy something that features a negative real yield? They do it because the banking regulators allow banks to purchase government bonds with little to no money down. When the banks, who hold an insufficient capital cushion against their government bond portfolio, inevitably blow up because inflation appears and bond prices fall as yields rise, the Fed allows them to use the discount window in the manner described above. As a result, banks would rather buy and hold government bonds than lend to businesses and individuals in need of capital. When you or I buy anything using borrowed money, we must pledge collateral or equity against potential losses. That is prudent risk management. But the rules are different if you are a vampire squid zombie bank. After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the world’s banking regulators attempted to force banks globally to hold more capital, thus creating a more robust and resilient global banking system. The system of rules that codified these changes are called Basel III. The problem with Basel III is that government bonds are not treated as riskless. Banks must put a small amount of capital behind their gargantuan portfolio of sovereign bonds. These capital requirements have proven problematic during times of stress. During the COVID March 2020 market crash, the Fed decreed that banks could hold USTs with no collateral backing. This allowed banks to step in and warehouse trillions of dollars worth of USTs in a riskless fashion … at least in terms of their accounting treatment. When the crisis abated, the supplemental leverage ratio (SLR) exemption for USTs was reinstated. Predictably, as UST prices fell due to inflation, banks went bust due to an insufficient capital cushion. The Fed rode to the rescue with the BTFP and now the discount window, but that only covers losses from the last crisis. How can banks step up and slurp down more bonds at the current unattractively high prices? The US banking system loudly proclaimed in November 2023 that due to Basel III forcing them to hold more capital against their government bond portfolios, Bad Gurl Yellen could not stuff them with more bonds. Therefore, something had to give because the US government has no other natural buyers of its debt at these negative real yields. Below is the polite way the banks phrased their precarious situation. Demand for US Treasuries may have softened among several traditional buyers. Bank security portfolio assets have been declining since last year, with bank holdings of Treasuries down $154 billion compared to one year ago. Source: Report to the Secretary of the Treasury from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee Again, the Fed – led by Powell – saved the day. Out of nowhere, at a recent , Powell proclaimed that banks would not be subject to higher capital requirements. Remember that many politicians called for banks to hold more capital so that the regional banking crisis of 2023 would not repeat itself. Obviously, the banks lobbied hard to nullify these higher capital requirements. They had a good argument –  if you, Bad Gurl Yellen, want us to buy dogshit government bonds, then we can only do it profitably with infinite leverage. Banks around the world run every flavour of government; the US is no different. US Senate Banking hearing The icing on the cake was a recent letter from the International Swaps Dealer Association (ISDA) advocating for an exemption of USTs from the SLR I spoke about earlier. In essence, banks can only hold USTs in the trillions of dollars needed to finance the US government deficit on a go-forward basis if they are required to put no money down. I expect as the US Treasury ramps up debt issuance, the ISDA proposal will be accepted. This excellent chart from clearly shows how wasteful the US Government is, as evidenced by the record-high deficit. The two recent periods where deficit spending was higher were due to the 2008 GFC and the boomer-led COVID lockdowns. The US economy is growing, but the government is spending money like it's an economic depression. Bianco Research Taken together, the relaxation of capital requirements and a likely future exemption of USTs from the SLR are a covert way of money printing. The Fed doesn’t print the money, rather the banking system creates the credit money out of thin air and purchases the bonds which then appear on their balance sheet. As always, the goal is to ensure that government bond yields do not rise to a level above the nominal GDP growth rate. As long as real rates remain negative, stonks, crypto, gold, etc., will continue advancing in fiat currency terms. Bad Gurl Yellen My essay “ ” spoke in depth about how the US Treasury, led by Bad Gurl Yellen, increased the issuance of short-term Treasury bills (T-bills) in an effort to drain the trillions of dollars locked in the Fed’s Reverse Repo Program (RRP). As expected, the RRP decline coincided with a rip higher in stonks, bonds, and crypto. But now that the RRP is down to $400 billion, the market is wondering what the next source of fiat liquidity will be that bolsters asset prices. Don’t you worry, Yellen ain’t done yet, shout ‘bout to booty drop. Bad Gurl RRP Balance (white) vs. Bitcoin (yellow) The flow of fiat funds I will discuss focuses on US tax payments, the Fed’s Quantitative Tightening (QT) program, and the Treasury General Account (TGA). The timeline in question is from April 15th (the day tax payments are due for the 2023 tax year) to May 1st. Let me provide a quick guide on their positive or negative impact on liquidity to help you understand the implications of these three things. remove liquidity from the system. That is because payers must remove cash from the financial system by selling securities for example, in order to pay their taxes. Analysts expect tax payments for the 2023 tax year to be on the high side because of the large amounts of interest income received and a solid performance in the stock market. Tax Payments removes liquidity from the system. As of March 2022, the Fed allows roughly $95 billion worth of UST and MBS to mature without reinvesting the proceeds. This causes the Fed’s balance sheet to fall, which we all know reduces dollar liquidity. However, we are not concerned about the absolute level of the Fed’s balance sheet but the pace at which it declines. Analysts, like Joe Kalish of Ned Davis Research, expect the Fed to reduce the pace of QT by $30 billion per month at its May 1st meeting. The reduction in the pace of QT is positive for dollar liquidity as the Fed’s balance sheet rate of decline slows. QT When the balance rises, it removes liquidity from the system, but when it falls, it adds liquidity to the system. When the Treasury receives tax payments, the TGA balance rises. I expect the TGA balance to swell well above the current ~$750 billion level as tax payments are processed on April 15th. This is dollar liquidity negative. Don’t forget it's an election year. Yellen’s job is to get her boss, US President , reelected. That means she must do all she can to juice the stock market to make voters feel rich and ascribe this great outcome to the slow “genius” of Bidenomics. When the RRP balances finally go to zero, Yellen will spend down the TGA, releasing, most likely, an additional $1 trillion of liquidity into the system, which will pump markets. TGA Jeo Boden The precarious period for risky assets is April 15th to May 1st. This is when tax payments remove liquidity from the system, QT rumbles on at the current elevated pace, and Yellen has yet to start running down the TGA. After May 1st, the pace of QT declines, and Yellen gets busy cashing checks to jack up asset prices. If you are a trader looking for an opportune time to put on a cheeky short position, the month of April is the perfect time to do so. After May 1st, it’s back to regular programming … asset inflation sponsored by Fed and US Treasury financial shenanigans. Bitcoin Halving The Bitcoin block reward is forecast to halve on April 20th. This is seen as a bullish catalyst for crypto markets. I agree that it will pump prices in the medium term; however, the price action directly before and after could be negative. The narrative of the halving being positive for crypto prices is well entrenched. When most market participants agree on a certain outcome, the opposite usually occurs. That is why I believe Bitcoin and crypto prices in general will slump around the halving. Given that the halving occurs at a time when dollar liquidity is tighter than usual, it will add propellant to a raging firesale of crypto assets. The timing of the halving adds further weight to my decision to abstain from trading until May. To date I took full profit on these positions, MEW, SOL, and NMT. The proceeds were placed into and staked to earn that phat yield. Before Ethena, I would have held USDT or USDC and earned nothing while Tether and Circle captured the entire T-bill yield. Ethena’s USDe Could the market defy my bearish inclinations and continue higher? Fuck yeah. I’m perennially long as fuck crypto, so I welcome being wrong. Do I really want to babysit my most speculative shitcoin positions while I’m two-stepping at Token2049 Dubai? Hell no. Therefore, I dump. There is no need to be upset. If the dollar liquidity scenarios I discussed above come true, I will have that much more confidence to ape into all manner of dogshit. If I miss a few percentage points of gains but definitely avoid losses for my portfolio and lifestyle, that is an acceptable outcome. With that, I bid you adieu. Please remember to put your dancing shoes on, and I will see you in Dubai for a celebration of the crypto bull market.

Heatwave

তাপপ্রবাহ

Hitzewelle

Ola de calor

Vague De Chaleur

हीटवेव

熱波

폭염

Onda de calor

Волна тепла

Sıcak hava dalgası

Đợt nắng nóng

热浪

The World Wide Web, thank you Sir Tim, was conceived as a technology designed to be “ ” It has devolved from that into a (cyber)space of moated castles, Disneylandish . a powerful source for social change and individual creativity. cathedrals, not bazaars While very entertaining and very useful in many ways the hegemonic Web platforms present as artificial rather than organic, hierarchical rather than egalitarian. The Big Platforms are owned and managed by a handful of dominant, supervalued, companies. Prominent are Alphabet (Google’s parent) and Meta (Facebook’s parent). Low cost and high profit, they are great at informing and entertaining us. Meanwhile, however, in consequential ways they are beggaring those who provide the content and the users who consume that content. The top platforms are richly paid to channel advertising. To us. The Web has evolved into a massive, and massively profitable, advertising engine. As such, the Web now might be (and is becoming) seen as a form of de facto feudalism, digital imperialism, and digerati aristocracy. The attention of us billions of serfs is the product sold to advertisers. No coercion there. More like… seduction. Note, this critique does not imply a call for legislation or government regulation. Both tend to be blunt instruments that land much harder on startups than on the hegemons of the digital megaverse. It calls for transformation. Which will come, as always, , as Microsoft dethroned IBM, Google (partially) dethroned Microsoft, Facebook (partially) dethroned Google, Apple (partially) dethroned Facebook, and so forth. from more innovation How did we get here? Can we, and if so how can we, once again unleash the imprisoned lighting ( ) of the colonized Web to create a new golden age of innovation and equitable prosperity? h/t Emma Lazarus Enter the blockchain. First, though, who am I to judge? I am one of the few surviving Original Gangsters of the Supply Side/Reaganomics revolution. We, relentlessly mocked by the right (“voodoo economics”) and the left (“trickle-down economics”), got policies enacted that, over time , pushed the Dow from 814 (on that day in November 1979 that Reagan officially declared his candidacy for the presidency) to its current flirtation with 40,000. Our voodoo doubled real per capita GDP (from $30,000 to $60,000). It raised nominal American and world GDP by a factor of ten. Pretty good voodoo. That said, what’s the next act? The juice from the original equitable prosperity policy formula -- of stabilizing the dollar (slaying the inflation dragon for two generations and cutting the top marginal income tax rate from 70% to, initially, 28%) -- got wrung out around the time Bill Clinton left the building. I was and am enthusiastic about reducing counterproductively high marginal tax rates across-the-board. Yet much of what ensued in the name of supply-side during the 21st century is a cargo-cult version of supply-side’s successes of the ‘80s and ‘90s. The post-Reagan/Clinton grotesque caricature of authentic supply-side economics has left the economy limping for a generation. Cumulatively, over 20+ years, sub-par growth rates are crippling. They leave us with an economy, both national and personal, far lower than what consistent 3+% supply-side growth rates would have delivered over time. As , compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world.  A one or two percent differential compounded over 20 years makes a huge difference. Einstein probably never said Is there a new, plausible, way to re-ignite vibrant, widely shared, rising living standards? As Nobel Prize winner Paul Romer has pointed out, the secret sauce is innovation. Tech. Enter A16z’s , “a General Partner and has been at Andreessen Horowitz since 2012. He founded and leads a16z crypto, which invests in web3 technologies through four dedicated funds with more than $7 billion under management.” Chris Dixon Dixon has delivered a splendid new book . It lays out in clear, practical terms how the wild wild Web was lost. And how to set it right in such a way that everyone, including us serfs, can prosper. Read Write Own: Building the Next Era of the Internet As , prosperity is too important to be left to the economists. Enter Dixon. war is too important to be left to the generals How to restore sizzling, equitable, prosperity? The blockchain. The blockchain is a revolutionary form of software which, when more fully developed, portends to allow most of the value created by the community and by its cultural creatives to be enjoyed by the full community and its cultural creatives. Not (as now) exclusively, or at least primarily, by the corporate royalty and tech aristocracy. At long last, Dixon gives us a presentation of the blockchain and its properties imbued with an enthusiasm leavened with shrewd practical insight devoid of hype. Dixon is one of the Masters of the Digital Universe (as coder, entrepreneur, and investor). He knows whereof he writes and has written the first really great, comprehensive, book on the blockchain, . Read Write Own: Building the Next Era of the Internet Eureka! Dixon provides an overview in his introduction. He there provides us a World-Wide-Webb-telescopic-eye view of the three eras of the internet, of a new movement, of seeing the truth and determining the internet’s future. Part One, “Read Write”—treats the early internet, which was effectively read only, and Web2, allowing us surfers to write and post through websites, blogs, podcasts, social media and so forth. He explains why networks matter and lays out a trenchant taxonomy of the two dominant incumbent networks (protocol, like the internet and email, and corporate, such as Google and Facebook) and their properties. In Part Two, “Own,” Dixon then goes on to explain what blockchains are, what “tokens” are, and what the – radically great – properties of blockchain networks are… or could and can be. “Own” is a short word with huge implications. Ownership is what has been lost, and which can be restored via a (better) blockchain. In Part Three, “A New Era,” Dixon explains and explores the fundamentals of the business model, community-created software, and take rates (meaning the vigorish that the corporate network proprietors extract from their communities, a process he aptly calls “attract and extract”). He lays out how building networks with token incentives can dramatically change the way the world works for the better, making it more prosperous, cultured, and equitable. He presents vividly the attendant “tokenomics” … and how to restore popular, rather than corporate-autocratic, governance. In Part Four, “Here and Now”, he contrasts the culture of the computer (blockchain as compute platform) with the casino (cryptocurrency), concluding with “What’s Next” … showing how mobile computing, starting with the iPhone, changed everything. He then lays out “some promising applications.” Dixon concludes with a pragmatic vision of the reinvention of the internet… and what grounds his cause for optimism. Until Dixon, in many years of my searching, like Diogenes with his lantern, I had encountered not one single really good, comprehensive, book on the blockchain. (I may have missed one, admittedly, for instance, not yet having gotten to Alex Tapscott’s critically acclaimed .) Web3 There I rested, baffled. So much sizzle. So little steak. So, together with a brilliant acquaintance, I helped write one: . That said, it mainly was focused on the potential finance applications of the blockchain, not the Big Picture. Redefining the Future of the Economy: Governance Blocks and Economic Architecture I thereafter co-authored a second book on this subject, , a compilation of ten superior policies designed to let the sector thrive while protecting the public. Blockchain With American Character It took a long odyssey to arrive at Dixon. I wandered around for years asking people vastly smarter than me what the blockchain was good for and seeking examples of killer applications (“use cases” in the prevailing jargon). In response, I got oodles of hype. And almost no satisfying answers … with one exception, though a largely unpublished one. noteworthy Cometh now Chris Dixon. I am not the only one impressed. Sam Altman, the godfather of ChatGPT, blurbs Read Write Own: “Read this book to understand a compelling vision of where the Internet should go and how to get there.” Shark Tank’s Mark Cuban: “Chris Dixon succeeds at explaining how crypto technology is vital to our technological future and how we all can benefit much as we have from the internet.” And many more captains of industry, tech titans, and nouveau billionaires discovered Dixon’s writings before I did. My own modest credentials? I have been working within and with the Blockchain ecosystem for, well, eons. One of my LinkedIn verticals is aggregating some of the most interesting stories about NFTs. Ralph Benko’s Cryptozoic Eon Geology nerds will recognize the original to be the pre-Cambrian era … before the trilobites and dinosaurs... comprising 80% of Earth’s geo-history. Are we trembling at the verge of the blockchain’s equivalent of the ? Cryptozoic Eon Cambrian explosion Dixon thinks so. So do I. Call me yet my odyssey through the blockchain ecosystem has brought me into contact with creatures and cultures as exotically beautiful and, sometimes, as weird as those encountered by Odysseus during his long return to Ithaka. Nobody My own pilgrimage: Senior advisor to the fabulous Perianne Boring’s Chamber of Digital Commerce, one of the sector’s earliest and most distinguished cheerleaders. Long-time active member of the Federal Blockchain Working Group. Privileged to present more than once at the conferences of the , the preeminent association of officials and international career civil servants. Government Blockchain Association Serving, for two years, as the senior counselor to the American Blockchain PAC, with its advisory board chaired by who generously contributed the introduction to . The breakthrough nature of Stornetta and Haber’s discovery is decisively evidenced by the fact that three of Satoshi’s eight footnotes referenced his and Stuart Haber’s . blockchain-co-inventor Dr. W. Scott Stornetta Blockchain With American Character seminal paper The high privilege of working with one of Satoshi’s earliest Bitcoin core devs (and major contributor to the Android OS) in establishing a DC think tank devoted to smart energy policy, . Jeff Garzik Washington Power and Light Voted Contributor of the Year in 2022 at for my blockchain writings in six categories: politics, economics, science, art, philosophy, and (with Greg Meredith) scaling. HackerNoon My blockchain-related efforts have migrated primarily to the , rather than policy, side. enterprise My primary focus is on the use of rho calculus (a refinement of Robin Milner’s Turing Award-winning pi-calculus) to deploy a blockchain that, unlike the dominant platforms, scales. Bitcoin does a mere 7 transactions per second, Ethereum, 70 transactions per second. Inadequate for practical utility. And expensive to operate. And storable. (Currently it costs almost half a million dollars to store one iTune on the dominant incumbent chains, hence the referenced data are mostly stashed behind someone else’s firewall, not at all optimal.) And searchable. (Currently the dominant blockchains are largely opaque, like the Web before search engines.) And secure. So … now what? Dixon is a true Master of the Blockchain Universe. Not (like me) a practiced propagandist. Thus he buries his lede on page 179: “The stakes are high. As I’ve argued here, blockchain networks are the only known technology that can re-establish an open, democratic internet.” Hello Congress my old friend, I’ve come to talk to you again…. This re-establishment is a very big deal indeed. What’s next? For the tantalizing promise of the blockchain to be realized we need smart policy that protects the public while not stifling innovation or exporting this cutting-edge tech, and the potentially trillions of associated dollars, to Berlin, Singapore or Zug. Imagine how worse off America would be today if Congress and our regulators had effectively deported the headquarters of the big Web success stories, like Google, to Europe or the Pacific? The need for a savvy legal and regulatory environment is something that legislators, regulators, and the ethical actors within the industry (like Dixon) all agree upon. Yet Washington has thus far proved mostly thrown, acting like the primates upon encountering the monolith at the beginning of . 2001: a Space Odyssey We’re at the precipice of deporting Web3 and its associated power, prestige and wealth. That may be about to change. The blockchain’s thought leaders are at long last gearing up to help guide the footsteps of the Washington elite back onto the Paths of Righteousness via smart policy, smart legislation, and smart regulation. Some very smart leaders of the blockchain ecosystem are now promising to , a modest investment in support a multi-billion dollar sector. invest $78M in lobbying and advocacy in 2024 The open question? Will they deploy their resources effectively? Or be taken in by the wily Beltway Bandits? What to do? Those of us who remember C.P. Snow’s seminal understand that the “physical scientists” (which would include software engineers, notwithstanding that software is, so to speak, metaphysical) among whom I count myself as a very lesser figure do not really understand the “literary intellectuals” (among whom I also count myself in a very minor way). The Two Cultures And The Scientific Revolution This misunderstanding causes a terrible disconnect. As Snow reported, in 1959: “They have a curious distorted image of each other. Their attitudes are so different that, even at the level of emotion, they can’t find much common ground.” This can be countered… if the blockchain thought leaders know how to adopt an effective approach. There is abundant potential common ground. Dixon’s book offers a “ ” – the brain’s bridge connecting the left (logical, dominating the physical scientists) and right (narrative-based, dominating the literary intellectuals) hemispheres – to enable both sides to understand each other. corpus callosum To their mutual, and our, great benefit. There’s a simple way to expedite this process, one with a high ROI. Were the thought leaders of the $78M blockchain advocacy effort to allocate an absurdly small fraction (less than 1%) of their dedicated resources to distributing two copies (one for the Congressperson or Senator, one for his or her most relevant legislative aide) of Read Write Own, the impact almost surely will be disproportionately valuable compared to the low cost of such an operation. How do I know? I’ve pretty much single-handedly gotten (non-blockchain related) legislation passed through the House. Twice. There are a lot of smart, idealistic, people working on Capitol Hill, many actively interested in the blockchain and in its tantalizing potential. Put Read Write Own in front of them! The power of can hardly be overestimated: Joseph Pulitzer’s principles “…put it before them briefly so that they will read it, clearly so that they will understand it, forcibly so that they will appreciate it, picturesquely so that they will remember it, and, above all, accurately so that they may be wisely guided by its light.” The late supply-side chief propagandist Jude Wanniski’s book “The Way the World Works” played an outsized role in igniting the worldwide wave of unprecedented equitable prosperity driven by supply-side economics. This arcane fact is mostly long forgotten. That said, I was there and remember. In the , “And I only am escaped alone to tell thee.” words of Ishmael Read Write Own, properly deployed, very well could catalyze a comparably magnificent equitable prosperity transformation. Putting Dixon’s Read Write Own in front of the right eyeballs in the right way on Capitol Hill, could very well release the djinn of “the only known technology that can re-establish an open, democratic internet” from its lamp. Which eyeballs? Don’t try to guess. Simply trust the process known as “ as described by James Surowiecki. the wisdom of crowds” Flood the zone and let the implicate order take it from there. And then … let a new golden age of equitable prosperity, via the road thereto so ably mapped out by Dixon, foment well-designed policy and thereby foster the next great manifestation of equitable prosperity for America. And the world. Read. Write. Own.

Here Comes Web3: Chris Dixon’s Read Write Own

এখানে আসে ওয়েব 3: ক্রিস ডিক্সনের পড়া লেখা নিজস্ব

Hier kommt Web3: Chris Dixons Read Write Own

Aquí viene Web3: Lectura y escritura propia de Chris Dixon

Voici le Web3 : Lire, écrire et posséder de Chris Dixon

यहाँ आता है वेब3: क्रिस डिक्सन का पढ़ें लिखें अपना

Web3 の登場: Chris Dixon の Read Write Own

Web3 출시: Chris Dixon의 읽기 쓰기

Aí vem a Web3: Read Write Own de Chris Dixon

А вот и Web3: книга Криса Диксона «Читайте, пишите сами»

İşte Web3 Geliyor: Chris Dixon'ın Oku Yaz Kendin Yaz

Đây là Web3: Tự đọc và viết của Chris Dixon

Web3 来了：Chris Dixon 的 Read Write Own

Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions. I recently read a fascinating book about the history of the East India Company (EIC) called “The Anarchy” by Wiliam Dalrymple. For those unfamiliar with this chapter of European colonialism, the EIC was a joint stock company that was given a royal charter/monopoly over the trade between Britain and the Indian subcontinent. Over a few centuries, what was initially a weak and poor commercial enterprise that survived at the whim of various Indian rulers conquered the entire subcontinent and paved the way for the British Raj, which lasted from the late 19th century until 1947. When it became known that the EIC employed unsavory methods to extract its immense profits, certain members of the company were called in front of the British Parliament for questioning. Fortunately, because many high-ranking members of parliament were also EIC shareholders, scant, if any, punishments were ever handed out. In fact, on various occasions, the EIC requested and received government bailouts due to its over-indebtedness. EIC was the first Too Big to Fail company, and conflicted politicians back then did as their contemporaries do today … use the public purse to bail out private companies for their own personal benefit. In effect, privatize the gains, but socialize the losses. The EIC is apropos to crypto because I want to talk about the evolution of crypto project ownership structures and fundraising methods. I will write about Bitcoin, ICO’s, yield farming/liquidity mining, and finally, points. The goal of this essay is to provide context for why points as a way of engaging users is a natural progression that follows on from previous engagement and fundraising methods of the past. Many of Maelstrom’s portfolio companies will launch their tokens in 2024, and you can expect to learn about points programs, which all share a goal of generating usage of their protocols. Therefore, I want to discuss why points exist and how they will drive adoption in this cycle. Web 2 vs. Web 3 Who your shareholders/token holders are and what they are promised is very important to any commercial enterprise's success, whether in crypto or otherwise. I am specifically going to compare and contrast how Web 2 (technology startups) and Web 3 (crypto startups) fundraise and acquire users. Whether you are founding a Web 2 or Web 3 startup, acquiring and retaining users is the most challenging and expensive aspect of your business. In Web 2, which was most prevalent from 2010 to 2020, a VC fund looked for startups with a modicum of initial traction and subsequently provided cash money rocket fuel for the startup to go on a user acquisition spree. Usually that entails handing out the service for free or at a discounted rate, well below its actual cost of delivery. Remember when ride-sharing apps were all fighting viciously for market share, and fares were incredibly cheap? That was all paid for with billions of dollars worth of VC money. Think of it as a subsidy in return for users. At the end of the rainbow for a VC firm was a successful initial public offering (IPO). The IPO allowed the plebes to own a piece of a successful Web 2 company for the first time. IPOs are the way to dump on retail in TradFi. However, various regulations barred the plebes from crowdfunding early-stage Web 2 companies. The irony is that the vast number of plebe users who drove the success of the company were prohibited from owning a piece of it. Considering the law of averages, more than 90% of all new companies fail. Investing in early-stage Web 2 companies is a recipe for losing all of your money. Even though that is the case, most investors, in a normal Gaussian distribution sense, believe they are 3-sigma traders even though they always seem to earn returns around the mean. What this means is that the plebes always want in early on the sure thing ex-post but throw a fit when they invariably lose money on the myriad of failures. At that point, the plebes point the finger at the government because, in our modern age, the average person believes it's the government's job to live their lives for them. I don’t blame them for that belief; the politicians all outdo themselves to paint the picture that nothing in life can ever go wrong if you support them. From a securities regulator’s perspective, there is no upside to allowing poor people to crowdfund early-stage companies. For every Facebook, there are 1,000 MySpaces. Why lose the shot at a promotion because you got sacked for allowing a gaggle of plebes to blow their paycheck on some piece-of-shit company they got sold by a bucket shop huckster? That’s my regulator-sympathetic reasoning behind why plebes aren’t allowed to collectively invest in early-stage companies. My more cynical explanation is that the TradFi gatekeepers earn a fuck ton of fees from IPOs. Let’s go down the list of who gets paid from the IPO process: The investment banks that underwrite the IPO syphon off between 2% to 7% of the capital raised. The lawyers make hundreds of thousands and sometimes millions of dollars preparing and filing the prospectus and other offering documents. Being a paper pusher never paid so well. The audit and accounting firms make hundreds of thousands of dollars per deal creating the audited financial reports. Quickbooks on steroids! The exchanges charge hefty listing fees. Nasdaq Labs anyone? The cartel of trust described above loves IPOs. A few successful IPOs in a calendar year ensures that everyone in TradFi gets their phat bonuses. But without a hungry hoard of retail buyers who are excluded from investing earlier at much cheaper prices, there would be no buying pressure to create a successful IPO. That is why retail participation must be saved for the end and not the beginning of the fundraising lifecycle. While these fees may seem egregious, before Bitcoin, there was no other efficient way to raise funds publicly. And being objective, this process created many super important, useful, and profitable companies. It worked. But fuck nostalgia, let’s move forward. From a user’s perspective, the major issue with how Web 2 companies are formed is that using the product or service doesn’t accrue equity in the company providing it. You don’t get shares of Meta by ogling Instagram thirst traps. Nor do you get shares in ByteDance while you destroy your brain watching pre-teens dance like Cardi B on TikTok. These centralized companies take your attention, your actions, and your money, and yes, they provide a service or product you enjoy, but that’s it. And even if you want to invest, you can’t unless you are rich and well-connected. Participation ≠ Ownership Bitcoin Paradigm Change Bitcoin and the subsequent evolution of the crypto capital markets changed this. As of 2009 – the genesis Bitcoin block – it became possible to reward participants with ownership in the startup. This is what I will refer to as Web 3 startups. Before you could purchase Bitcoin on an exchange starting in 2010, mining it was the only way to acquire it. Miners, by burning electricity, validate transitions, which creates and upkeeps the network. For this activity, they are rewarded with newly minted Bitcoin. Participation = Ownership The participants or users now have skin in the game. Similar to the EIC example, users with skin in the game will do whatever they can to protect their investment. In the EIC case, that meant looking the other way as war and famine were visited upon a population in the name of profit. In the Bitcoin example, it means owners of Bitcoin want to convert as many people as possible into Bitcoin users as well. Look into my laser eyes, bitch! The Initial Coin Offering (ICO) Quickly, the crypto capital markets recognized a way to crowdfund technology startups in a way that was unavailable to Web 2 startups. If a Web 3 startup eschewed fiat as payment for ownership or governance rights and only accepted Bitcoin, it could sidestep the entire TradFi cartel of trust that “safeguards” the filthy fiat financial system. To raise funds, a project launched a website announcing that if you gave them Bitcoin, they would give you tokens that did something or gave some sort of economic rights in the future. If you believed this team had the ability to execute their advertised vision, in less than an hour, you could own a piece of an exciting new network. The first major project that conducted an ICO was Ethereum in 2014. The Ethereum Foundation pre-sold Ether, the commodity that powered its virtual decentralized computer, in exchange for Bitcoin. In 2015, Ether was distributed to buyers. It was a successful ICO. The foundation pre-sold its token for funds that were used to develop the network further. The amount of ICO deals and the amounts raised went asymptotic. The best ICO ever done was by Block.one, the creators of EOS. They conducted an ICO over a whole year and raised $4 billion worth of Ether at prices back then. EOS is an excellent example of the ICO craze because it raised the most money, and it was a complete piece-of-shit blockchain that barely worked. As time went on, the projects got shittier, but the amounts raised grew larger. This was because for the first time ever, anyone with an internet connection and some crypto could own a piece of what were sold as the next hottest technology startups. Retail entered the game and made a lot of crypto bros filthy rich. The ICO mania peaked in the fall of 2017 when the Chinese regulators explicitly banned them. Exchanges like Yunbi were shut overnight, and many projects that recently raised money from Chinese retail investors returned the funds. Around the world, regulators keen to protect the cartel of trust from competition in how early-stage ideas are fundraised swung into action, and ICO issuance disappeared. ICO investors gave money and became motivated marketing agents for the projects. However, just because you sold tokens at a high price didn’t mean anyone would use your product. Ownership was just a function of money invested but not usage of the protocol. ICOs were a step forward, but we could do better. Yield Farming DeFi summer, from a northern-hemispheric perspective, started in mid-2020. A slew of projects launched during the depths of the 2018-2020 bear market started being used meaningfully. The tokens were already listed as many of these projects had either done an ICO or a token pre-sale followed by a public token generation event (TGE) by mid-2020. The project foundations allocated a large amount of tokens to be awarded to community members who performed valuable activities. Many of these projects, like Uniswap, AAVE, and Compound, were focused on borrowing, lending, and trading. They wanted users to borrow, lend, and/or trade their crypto assets using their protocols. In return for doing said actions, the protocols would instantly emit freely tradable tokens. And thus, yield farming was born. Traders borrowed, lent, and traded cryptos on these platforms for the specific purpose of earning the governance token of the protocol. In many cases, the trader would lose money just so they could “farm” or earn more tokens. Because the tokens went up in price on a mark-to-market basis, the traders appeared to be in profit. All of this assumes you sold at the top; many didn’t, and all that activity was for naught. From the project’s perspective, all this activity juiced their trading volumes, total value locked (TVL), and number of unique wallets that interacted with the protocol. These metrics convinced investors that DeFi was working and creating a parallel financial system governed purely by code run on decentralized virtual computers. Participation = Ownership All was good, except the unlocked token supply grew too quickly for many projects. Invariably, the projects had to slow emissions, and the market started to ask, “What’s next?” If all activity is predicated on aggressive token emissions schedules, what happens if the token price falls and there are no more tokens available to give prospective users? What happens is the price of the project’s token plummets alongside activity. The lesson learned is that yield farming or liquidity mining is a great way to incentivize usage, but if it is pursued too aggressively it becomes a liability. The question then becomes, how do you emit tokens in a more sustainable manner? Points Yield farming as a user acquisition tool died alongside the 2021 crypto bull market. But points were created in its wake, and have quickly become the go-to pseudo-ICO fundraising and user acquisition tool for projects in this current bull cycle. Points combine the best aspects of ICOs and yield farming. ICOs Allow the millions of retail crypto hodlers to purchase a piece of a new protocol. But when you sell something to retail, some regulators call that a “security” and require you to do a lot of shit that you don’t want to do … namely, stop selling shit to poor people. Yield Farming Emits tokens to users for using the protocol. However, if pursued too aggressively, it will inflate the finite token supply too quickly, and once the token price falls, the user will have no incentive to use the protocol any longer. What if a project gave you points for interacting with the protocol? These points would be converted into tokens, which would then be airdropped free of charge into users' wallets. What if the points to airdrop token price was completely opaque and at the discretion of the project? What if there was actually no promise that points would even convert into future airdropped tokens? Here is a simple example to bring it home. Suppose that Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) is offered a points program by his bunkmate. His bunkmate can get an infinite supply of Emsam; this is the amphetamine SBF claims he needs for his ADHD condition. His bunkmate really likes back massages. He makes a deal with SBF. For every back massage SBF administers, his bunkmate will give him a point. At a future date of his bunkmate’s choosing, the points might convert into a certain number of Emsam pills. SBF wants his meds so bad he is willing to agree to a lot of rubbing in exchange for a soft promise of future Emsam pills. Are points a contract between the project and the user for a tangible reward in the future? No. Is there any form of money, fiat, crypto, or otherwise that is exchanged between the user and the project for points or tokens? No. Does the project have complete flexibility regarding the points-to-token conversion price and the timing of a token airdrop, if one happens at all? Yes. Let’s make some other assumptions and observations. If you have a small, talented engineering team, there is no need for many other employees. That is the beauty of software. The layer-one blockchain itself handles cybersecurity; users pay gas in the native token, such as Ether, in part to pay validators or miners to secure the network. Do you need in-house lawyers? If your project is truly decentralized, maybe not. And furthermore, after your foundation is created, what other major work is there for expensive lawyers? Your biggest problem is how to get more users and that is a marketing and business development effort. Assuming you built good tech, all your money will be spent doing things to attract usage. Building an amazing project without little, if any, VC funding is entirely possible. The project needs money to acquire users, and points are the new and exciting way to guerilla market. With points, the project doesn’t lock itself into an aggressive token emissions schedule. That is because the points-to-token ratio can be changed at any time. There is no contract that says the project must match a specific points-to-token ratio. With points, the project generates usage in the specific ways it believes will increase the long-term value of its service. Many of the most impactful crypto projects are some sort of two-way marketplace. Points help jumpstart network activity and overcome the cold-start or chicken-and-egg problem. The ability to surgically, dynamically calibrate points emissions to specific actions throughout the project’s ecosystem means that the project can be very effective in generating the exact type of user interaction it desires. Finally, with points, the project doesn’t have to lean as heavily on signing token pre-sale deals with VCs and other high-net-worth investors. The major purpose of VC capital is to pay for user acquisition; points can accomplish this. The best part is that the project can implicitly sell its token at a much higher price via the opaque points program than a transparently priced round. Points are great for the project, but what about retail users? Since ICOs went out of favor, retail must be super wary of VC unlock schedules. If retail apes into a token at the same time a VC’s portion unlocks, it’s REDRUM REDRUM REDRUM for retail’s portfolios. Using points, projects don’t need to engage in pre-sale token sales to such a large extent. Using points, retail can “invest” earlier and hopefully get a cheaper price than if they waited until after the TGE. While ambiguity surrounds the timing of the airdrop and the points-to-token ratio, points might represent a more equitable way to reward users for their participation. A points program is only effective if there is a high degree of trust between users and the project’s founders. The user trusts that after interacting with the protocol, their points will convert into tokens at a reasonable price in a reasonable time frame. As points programs proliferate, there will be bad actors who abuse this trust. Ultimately, an egregious breach of trust that encompasses a large amount of money might be what kills points as a fundraising and user engagement tool. But we aren’t there yet, so I ain’t fussed. All Aboard Whether you like it or not, every successful project, and by success I mean, token number go up, will enact a points program before their TGE. This will create usage of the protocol, hype around the probable token airdrop, and a Pump Up The Jam! public listing. I am a businessman, not a priest. The only dogma I subscribe to is “number go up!” If points create better alignment between users and the protocols, LFG. If the cartel of trust’s hold on fundraising of the new and innovative technology startups further erodes because points are considered a better user engagement and fundraising mechanism, sign me up. I hope this essay provides some context on what points are and why I believe they will power this cycle's best-performing token launches. Maelstrom’s got bags, and I’m not ashamed to tell readers about them. Expect many more essays on exciting projects in our portfolio that launch points programs before their eventual TGE. My body is ready, is yours?

Points Guard

পয়েন্ট গার্ড

Guardia de puntos

Garde de points

पॉइंट गार्ड

ポイントガード

포인트 가드

Guarda de Pontos

Разыгрывающий защитник

Puan Muhafızı

Bảo vệ điểm

得分后卫

Yellen or Talkin'?

NASA has just launched its probe OSIRIS-REx, which has been renamed the OSIRIS-APEX (Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security – Apophis Explorer) to study the asteroid Apophis, which is expected to fly by Earth in five years. The asteroid, also referred to as the "God of Chaos," is projected to pass Earth on April 13, 2029, at an extremely close proximity of roughly 20,000 miles, nearer than some artificial satellites, and may be visible from the Eastern Hemisphere. The spacecraft is set to rendezvous with the S-type asteroid, which is composed of silicate materials and nickel-iron, on April 13, 2029. Instead of landing, however, it will maintain close proximity to the asteroid for a duration of 18 months. During this time, the spacecraft will not only observe surface alterations but will also undertake tasks such as mapping the asteroid's surface and examining its chemical composition, as stated by NASA. The mission includes a maneuver where the spacecraft will approach as close as 16 feet from the asteroid's surface. This proximity will allow it to fire its thrusters towards the surface, effectively stirring up material. This action will provide researchers with valuable insights into the subsurface composition of the asteroid. Even though the asteroid's closest approach to Earth is still five years away, scientists are already preparing to observe it as the probe makes the first of its six near encounters with the sun. Of course, an event like this always raises the obvious question, which is: what if a massive asteroid were to be headed straight for Earth? What would we do then? Do we have the means to deflect such a threat? The short answer is that we do not yet know. Scientists have debated whether we are capable of exploding an asteroid before it reaches Earth or firing a projectile at it to “bounce” it away. Either way, preventing an asteroid from crashing into Earth involves a range of strategies based on detection, analysis, and intervention. The first step is always early detection, using telescopes and radar to continuously scan the sky for near-Earth objects (NEOs). Early detection is crucial as it provides time to plan and execute a response. Once a potentially hazardous asteroid is identified, scientists calculate its trajectory to determine the risk of impact. If an impact is predicted, various methods can be employed to alter the asteroid's path. One common idea is the kinetic impactor technique. This involves sending a spacecraft to collide with the asteroid at high speed, changing its velocity and trajectory just enough to miss Earth. The success of this method depends on the mass and speed of the spacecraft and the size and composition of the asteroid. Another approach is the gravity tractor method. A spacecraft would fly alongside the asteroid for an extended period, using its gravitational pull to slowly alter the asteroid's path. This method is more precise than the kinetic impactor but requires more time to be effective. Nuclear explosions are also considered as a last resort. Contrary to popular belief, the idea isn't to blow the asteroid apart, as this could create multiple hazardous fragments. Instead, a nuclear detonation would be conducted near the asteroid to superheat its surface, creating a powerful jet of vaporized material that acts like a rocket engine, pushing the asteroid off course. Additionally, technologies like laser ablation, where lasers are used to vaporize material and create a thrust, and attaching a solar sail to the asteroid to use solar radiation pressure for course alteration are theoretical options still in development. Coordination on a global scale is vital in these efforts. International space agencies and governments would need to collaborate to track NEOs and deploy any chosen intervention method. Continuous research and development in asteroid deflection technologies are essential to improve our capabilities to protect Earth from potential asteroid impacts. In the meantime, hopefully, we will get to enjoy seeing the God of Chaos fly safely by in five years’ time.

Can We Deflect Asteroids on Trajectory with Earth?

268 Stories To Learn About Trading

Craig Wright And The Bitcoin Supercomputer Fraud

416 Stories To Learn About Crypto Trading

Scientific American, Volume XLIII., No. 25, December 18, 1880, by Various, is part of the HackerNoon Books Series. You can jump to any chapter in this book . Characteristics of Arctic Winter. here Characteristics of Arctic Winter. Lieutenant Schwatka, whose recent return from a successful expedition in search of the remains of Sir John Fanklin's ill-fated company, combats the prevalent opinion that the Arctic winter, especially in the higher latitudes, is a period of dreary darkness. In latitude 83° 20' 20" N., the highest point ever reached by man, there are four hours and forty-two minutes of twilight on December 22, the shortest day in the year, in the northern hemisphere. In latitude 82° 27' N., the highest point where white men have wintered, there are six hours and two minutes in the shortest day; and latitude 84° 32' N., 172 geographical miles nearer the North Pole than Markham reached, and 328 geographical miles from that point, must yet be attained before the true Plutonic zone, or that one in which there is no twilight whatsoever, even upon the shortest day of the year, can be said to have been entered by man. Of course, about the beginning and ending of this twilight, it is very feeble and easily extinguished by even the slightest mists, but nevertheless it exists, and is quite appreciable on clear cold days, or nights, properly speaking. The North Pole itself is only shrouded in perfect blackness from November 13 to January 29, a period of seventy-seven days. Supposing that the sun has set (supposing a circumpolar sea or body of water unlimited to vision) on September 24, not to rise until March 18, for that particular point, giving a period of about fifty days of uniformly varying twilight, the pole has about 188 days of continuous daylight, 100 days of varying twilight, and 77 of perfect inky darkness (save when the moon has a northern declination) in the period of a typical year. During the period of a little over four days, the sun shines continuously on both the North and South Poles at the same time, owing to refraction parallax, semi-diameter, and dip of the horizon. About HackerNoon Book Series: We bring you the most important technical, scientific, and insightful public domain books. This book is part of the public domain. Various (2007). Scientific American, Volume XLIII., No. 25, December 18, 1880. Urbana, Illinois: Project Gutenberg. Retrieved https://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/21081/pg21081-images.html This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included with this eBook or online at , located at . www.gutenberg.org https://www.gutenberg.org/policy/license.html

Characteristics of Arctic Winter

THOUGHTS ON SCIENCE

THOUGHTS ON LIFE

Scientific American Supplement, No. 392, July 7, 1883 by Various, is part of the HackerNoon Books Series. You can jump to any chapter in this book . THE DEVELOPMENTAL SIGNIFICANCE OF HUMAN PHYSIOGNOMY. here THE DEVELOPMENTAL SIGNIFICANCE OF HUMAN PHYSIOGNOMY. [Footnote: Abstract of a lecture delivered before the Franklin Institute of Philadelphia, Jan. 20.1881, in exposition of principles laid down in The Hypothesis of Evolution, New Haven, 1870, p. 31.] By E. D. COPE. The ability to read character in the form of the human face and figure is a gift possessed by comparatively few persons, although most people interpret, more or less correctly, the salient points of human expression. The transient appearances of the face reveal temporary phases of feeling which are common to all men; but the constant qualities of the mind should be expressed, if at all, in the permanent forms of the executive instrument of the mind, the body. To detect the peculiarities of the mind by external marks has been the aim of the physiognomist of all times; but it is only in the light of modern evolutionary science that much progress in this direction can be made. The mind, as a function of part of the body, partakes of its perfections and its defects, and exhibits parallel types of development. Every peculiarity of the body has probably some corresponding significance in the mind; and the causes of the former are the remoter causes of the latter. Hence, before a true physiognomy can be attempted, the origin of the features of the face and general form must be known. Not that a perfect physiognomy will ever be possible. A mental constitution so complex as that of man cannot be expected to exhibit more than its leading features in the body; but these include, after all, most of what it is important for us to be able to read, from a practical point of view. The present essay will consider the probable origin of the structural points which constitute the permanent expression. These may be divided into three heads, viz.: Those of the general form or figure. Those of the surface or integument of the body, with its appendages. Those of the forms of the head and face. The principal points to be considered under each of these heads are the following: I. THE GENERAL FORM. The size of the head. The squareness or slope of the shoulders. The length of the arms. The constriction of the waist. The width of the hips. The length of the leg, principally of the thigh. The sizes of the hands and feet. The relative sizes of the muscles. II. THE SURFACES. 9. The structure of the hair (whether curled or not). The length and position of the hair. The size and shape of the nails. The smoothness of the skin. The color of the skin, hair, and irides. III. THE HEAD AND FACE. 14. The relative size of the cerebral to the facial regions. The prominence of the forehead. The prominence of the superciliary (eyebrow) ridges. The prominence of the alveolar borders (jaws). The prominence and width of the chin. The relation of length to width of skull. The prominence of the malar (cheek) bones. The form of the nose. The relative size of the orbits and eyes. The size of the mouth and lips. The significance of these, as of the more important structural characters of man and the lower animals, must be considered from two standpoints, the paleontological and the embryological. The immediate paleontological history of man is unknown, but may be easily inferred from the characteristics displayed by his nearest relatives of the order Quadrumana. If we compare these animals with man, we find the following general differences. The numbers correspond to those of the list above given: I. As to General Form.--(3) In the apes the arms are longer; (8) the extensor muscles of the leg are smaller. II. As to Surface.--(9) The body is covered with hair which is not crisp or woolly; (10) the hair of the head is short; (18) the color of the skin, etc., is dark. III. As to Head and Face.--(14) The facial region of the skull is large as compared with the cerebral; (15) the forehead is not prominent, and is generally retreating; (16) the superciliary ridges are more prominent; (17) the edges of the jaws are more prominent; (18) the chin is less prominent; (20) the cheek bones are more prominent; (21) the nose is without bridge, and with short and flat cartilages; (22) the orbits and eyes are smaller (except in Nyctipithecus); (24) the mouth is small and the lips are thin. It is evident that the possession of any one of the above characteristics by a man approximates him more to the monkeys, so far as it goes. He retains features which have been obliterated in other persons in the process of evolution. In considering the physiognomy of man from an embryological standpoint, we must consider the peculiarities of the infant at birth. The numbers of the following list correspond with those already used (Fig. 3). I. As to the General Form.--(1) The head of the infant is relatively much larger than in the adult; (3) the arms are relatively longer; (4) there is no waist; (6) the leg, and especially the thigh, is much shorter. II. As to the Surfaces.--(10) The body is covered with fine hair, and that of the head is short. III. The Head and Face.--(14) The cerebral part of the skull greatly predominates over the facial; (16) the superciliary ridges are not developed; (17) the alveolar borders are not prominent; (20) the malar bones are not prominent; (21) the nose is without bridge and the cartilages are flat and generally short; (22) the eyes are larger. It is evident that persons who present any of the characters cited in the above list are more infantile or embryonic in those respects than are others; and that those who lack them have left them behind in reaching maturity. We have now two sets of characters in which men may differ from each other. In the one set the characters are those of monkeys, in the other they are those of infants. Let us see whether there be any identities in the two lists, i. e., whether there be any of the monkey-like characters which are also infantile. We find the following to be such: I. As to General Form.--(3) The arms are longer. II. Surface.--(10) The hair of the head is short, and the hair on the body is more distributed. III. As to Head and Face.--(21) The nose is without bridge and the cartilages are short and flat. Three characters only out of twenty-three. On the other hand, the following characters of monkey-like significance are the opposites of those included in the embryonic list: (14) The facial region of the skull is large as compared with the cerebral; (15) the forehead is not prominent; (16) the superciliary ridges are more prominent; (17) the edges of the jaws are more prominent. Four characters, all of the face and head. It is thus evident that in attaining maturity man resembles more and more the apes in some important parts of his facial expression. It must be noted here that the difference between the young and embryonic monkeys and the adults is quite the same as those just mentioned as distinguishing the young from the adult of man (Figs. 1 and 2). The change, however, in the case of the monkeys is greater than in the case of man. That is, in the monkeys the jaws and superciliary ridges become still more prominent than in man. As these characters result from a fuller course of growth from the infant, it is evident that in these respects the apes are more fully developed than man. Man stops short in the development of the face, and is in so far more embryonic.[1] The prominent forehead and reduced jaws of man are characters of "retardation." The characters of the prominent nose with its elevated bridge, is a result of "acceleration," since it is a superaddition to the quadrumanous type from both the standpoints of paleontology and embryology.[2] The development of the bridge of the nose is no doubt directly connected with the development of the front of the cerebral part of the skull and ethmoid bone, which sooner or later carries the nasal bones with it. [Footnote 1: This fact has been well stated by C. S. Minot in the Naturalist for 1882, p. 511.] [Footnote 2: See Cope, The Hypothesis of Evolution, New Haven, 1870, p. 31.] If we now examine the leading characters of the physiognomy of three of the principal human sub-species, the Negro, the Mongolian, and the Indo-European, we can readily observe that it is in the two first named that there is a predominance of the quadrumanous features which are retarded in man; and that the embryonic characters which predominate are those in which man is accelerated. In race description the prominence of the edges of the jaws is called prognathism, and its absence orthognathism. The significance of the two lower race characters as compared with those of the Indo-European is as follows: Negro.--Hair crisp (a special character), short (quadrum. accel.); prognathous (quadrum. accel.); nose flat, without bridge (quadrum. retard)[1]; malar bones prominent (quadrum. accel.); beard short (quadrum. retard.); arms longer (quadrum. accel.); extensor muscles of legs small (quadrum. retard.). [Footnote 1: In the Bochimans, the flat nasal bones are co-ossified with the adjacent elements as in the apes (Thulié).] Mongolian.--Hair straight, long (accel.); jaws prognathous (quadrum. accel.); nose flat or prominent with or without bridge; malar bones prominent (quadrum. accel.); beard none (embryonic); arms shorter (retard.); extensor muscles of leg smaller (quad. retard.). Indo-European.--Hair long (accel.); jaws orthognathous (embryonic retard.); nose (generally) prominent with bridge (accel.); malar bones reduced (retard.); beard long (accel.); arms shorter (retard.); extensor muscles of the leg large (accel.). The Indo-European race is then the highest by virtue of the acceleration of growth in the development of the muscles by which the body is maintained in the erect position (extensors of the leg), and in those important elements of beauty, a well-developed nose and beard. It is also superior in these points in which it is more embryonic than the other races, viz., the want of prominence of the jaws and cheekbones, since these are associated with a greater predominance of the cerebral part of the skull, increased size of cerebral hemispheres, and greater intellectual power. A comparison between the two sexes of the Indo-Europeans expresses their physical and mental relations in a definite way. I select the sexes of the most civilized races, since it is in these, according to Broca and Topinard, that the sex characters are most pronounced. They may be contrasted as follows. The numbers are those of the list already used. I first consider those which are used in the tables of embryonic, quadrumanous, and race characters: MALE.                       FEMALE.
               I. _The General Form_.
   2. Shoulders square.          Shoulders slope.
   4. Waist less constricted.    Waist more constricted.
   5. Hips narrower.             Hips wider.
   6. Legs longer.               Legs shorter (very frequently).
   8. Muscles larger.            Muscles smaller.


               II. _The Integuments, etc_.
  10. More hair on body, that    Less hair on body, that of head
      of head shorter; beard.    longer; no beard.
  12. Skin rougher (generally).  Skin smoother.


               III. _The Head and Face_.
  16. Superciliary ridges more   Superciliary ridges low.
      prominent.
  22. Eyes often smaller.        Eyes often larger. The characters in which the male is the most like the infant are two, viz., the narrow hips and short hair. Those in which the female is most embryonic are five, viz., the shorter legs, smaller muscles, absence of beard, low superciliary ridges, and frequently larger eyes. To these may be added two others not mentioned in the above lists; these are 1, the high pitched voice, which never falls an octave, as does that of the male; and 2, the structure of the generative organs, which in all mammalia more nearly resemble the embryo and the lower vertebrata in the female than in the male. Nevertheless, as Bischoff has pointed out, one of the most important distinctions between man and the apes is to be found in the external reproductive organs of the female. From the preceding rapid sketch the reader will be able to explain the meaning of most of the peculiarities of face and form which he will meet with. Many persons possess at least one quadrumanous or embryonic character. The strongly convex upper lip frequently seen among the lower classes of the Irish is a modified quadrumanous character. Many people, especially those of the Sclavic races, have more or less embryonic noses. A retreating chin is a marked monkey character. Shortness of stature is mostly due to shortness of the femur, or thigh; the inequalities of people sitting are much less than those of people standing. A short femur is embryonic; so is a very large head. The faces of some people are always partially embryonic, in having a short face and light lower jaw. Such faces are still more embryonic when the forehead and eyes are protuberant. Retardation of this kind is frequently seen in children, and less frequently in women. The length of the arms would appear to have grown less in comparatively recent times. Thus the humerus in most of the Greek statues, including the Apollo Belvidere, is longer than those of modern Europeans, according to a writer in the Bulletin de la Société d'Anthropologie of Paris, and resembles more nearly that of the modern Nubians than any other people. This is a quadrumanous approximation. The miserably developed calves of many of the savages of Australia, Africa, and America are well known. The fine, swelling gastroenemius and soleus muscles characterize the highest races, and are most remote from the slender shanks of the monkeys. The gluteus muscles developed in the lower races as well as in the higher distinguish them well from the monkeys with their flat posterior outline. It must be borne in mind that the quadrumanous indications are found in the lower classes of the most developed races. The status of a race or family is determined by the percentage of its individuals who do and do not present the features in question. Some embryonic characters may also appear in individuals of any race, as a consequence of special circumstances. Such are, however, as important to the physiognomist as the more normal variations. Some of these features have a purely physical significance, but the majority of them are, as already remarked, intimately connected with the development of the mind, either as a cause or as a necessary coincidence. I will examine these relations in a future article. About HackerNoon Book Series: We bring you the most important technical, scientific, and insightful public domain books. This book is part of the public domain. Various (2005). Scientific American Supplement, No. 392, July 7, 1883. Urbana, Illinois: Project Gutenberg. Retrieved https://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/8742/pg8742-images.html This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included with this eBook or online at , located at . www.gutenberg.org https://www.gutenberg.org/policy/license.html

THE DEVELOPMENTAL SIGNIFICANCE OF HUMAN PHYSIOGNOMY

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