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Before delving into the details, let me set the stage by using a universally relatable example. I will discuss the concepts of transparency through the lens of employee hiring processes—a scenario familiar to many, whether they work in startups or big corporations. This context will illustrate how transparency impacts a common business operation and why it's crucial for organizational success. Imagine a complex machine encased in a black box: Inputs come in;
something mysterious happens inside;
and outputs emerge, yet the internal operations remain obscured from user's view. This metaphor aptly describes certain business processes which you could find almost in every small or big company. This article will try to throw light on why transparency in processes is indeed important for the users, stakeholders, and other parties. Increased transparency will be a change imperative that is much needed to bring positive change throughout the business environment, helping to make informed decisions faster, waste fewer resources on non-critical activities and focus on main goals we want to achieve. More importantly, transparency truly builds trust—one of the foundations of human relationships defining the success of any business. The Benefits of Shifting to Transparency Transforming the black box of traditional processes into a transparent container revolutionizes how we view and manage operations from start to finish. By making every step from application entry to the final hiring decision visible and comprehensible, not only is the internal team enlightened, but candidates also benefit from a vastly improved experience. This visibility throughout the journey underscores the value of openness and clarity. Fostering Trust Through Openness Transparency naturally cultivates trust. It clarifies the mechanisms and criteria used in decision-making both for the team and for applicants, ensuring that all parties are well-informed. This openness is crucial for building assurance, respect, and mutual confidence, transforming the workplace into an environment where everyone feels valued and understood. Optimizing Streamlining Through Visibility When once-opaque processes become crystal clear, it’s easier to identify and address choke points and redundancies. This visibility facilitates smoother decision-making and optimizes every step of the process. Moreover, such transparency can spur innovation and efficiency by democratizing the search for solutions. When everyone can see and understand the workflow, innovative ideas and improvements can emerge from any level within the organization. Enabling Automation and Liberating Creativity With a transparent system, automation of routine tasks becomes a practical solution, allowing the workforce to focus their creativity where it truly matters. This shift not only boosts productivity but also enhances job satisfaction by freeing up personnel to tackle more complex and rewarding challenges. Thus, transparency not only streamlines operations but also enriches the workplace by empowering employees to contribute to meaningful changes and innovations. The Black Box Of The Hiring Process Imagine some hiring processes that hinge on a six-person circle around a spreadsheet; doggedly adhering to the old way of doing things because 'that's how it's always been done. Slow, opaque, and rarely subject to critical introspection except for finding it increasingly under the demand to scale rapidly. Through this labyrinthine process, CVs continually come in and out of the system, and in some obscure and arcane way, a new hire eventually emerges. But the real quality of the hire, reasons for the delays, and the costs remain obscure”cloaked by the walls of a black box, figuratively speaking. Such a system stifles efficiency by making it unavailable to the organization to get critical insights needed to properly improve and adapt its hiring practices. Steps Toward Unveiling Process Transparency Build or ReBuild proper process using IT tools At least, you need to build an IT system to make such a transparent process. Since it may store all your data that you would like and need to save for future analysis, then it can give a great report whereby the process could improve or building some business metric to show them in the business, and many more. For example, for our considered HR process, you could establish some automation where it is possible, wherever you need the actions of humans; you could fit all the necessary actions into some interface and save all the data about the operational work of an HR team, about candidates, etc. You're going to use all this data. You can easily create such a system for the processes with low-code tools. I previously wrote about exact example how it could be used in this article. https://hackernoon.com/using-low-code-development-to-streamline-internal-business-processes?embedable=true Creating a Transparent Culture Adopting a culture of transparency represents a fundamental shift from opacity to clarity, where the mechanisms of processes are openly discussed. This cultural transformation encourages healthy feedback and welcomes change, fostering an environment where all team members feel comfortable voicing their ideas and concerns. Such openness not only promotes a deeper understanding of processes but also helps in refining them continuously. Defining, Measuring, and Refining Processes To establish a truly transparent system it's crucial to define each step of a process with precision and clarity. Outline the criteria for success distinctly so that everyone understands what achievements look like. This approach doesn't just clarify the existing processes; it provides a structured method for ongoing improvement. By setting clear benchmarks and regularly reviewing outcomes, the organization can continuously evolve, becoming more efficient and effective over time. Educating and Empowering the Team Education and empowerment are key to maintaining transparency within the organization. Equip your team with the necessary tools and knowledge through targeted training sessions on new technologies and processes. Conduct workshops to demonstrate the tangible benefits of transparency and encourage an open dialogue about these new methods. By creating an environment that supports continuous learning and growth, you ensure that every team member not only understands the value of transparency but is also skilled in applying it to their work. This commitment to education and empowerment not only enhances individual performance but also drives collective success. Conclusion "Breaking open the black box" means transforming secretive, complex business processes into something clear and understandable. For example, in hiring, this means making every step of the process clear and justifiable. By doing this, we make hiring more straightforward and set an example for transparency that can be followed in all parts of the organization. This change does more than just make things simpler; it also helps everyone understand what’s happening inside the company. By being open about how things work, we build a workplace that values trust, clarity, and innovation. This approach sheds light on current practices and also paves the way for ongoing improvements and new ideas. Before delving into the details, let me set the stage by using a universally relatable example. I will discuss the concepts of transparency through the lens of employee hiring processes—a scenario familiar to many, whether they work in startups or big corporations. This context will illustrate how transparency impacts a common business operation and why it's crucial for organizational success. Imagine a complex machine encased in a black box: Inputs come in; something mysterious happens inside; and outputs emerge, yet the internal operations remain obscured from user's view. Inputs come in; something mysterious happens inside; and outputs emerge, yet the internal operations remain obscured from user's view. This metaphor aptly describes certain business processes which you could find almost in every small or big company. This article will try to throw light on why transparency in processes is indeed important for the users, stakeholders, and other parties. Increased transparency will be a change imperative that is much needed to bring positive change throughout the business environment, helping to make informed decisions faster, waste fewer resources on non-critical activities and focus on main goals we want to achieve. More importantly, transparency truly builds trust—one of the foundations of human relationships defining the success of any business. The Benefits of Shifting to Transparency Transforming the black box of traditional processes into a transparent container revolutionizes how we view and manage operations from start to finish. By making every step from application entry to the final hiring decision visible and comprehensible, not only is the internal team enlightened, but candidates also benefit from a vastly improved experience. This visibility throughout the journey underscores the value of openness and clarity. Fostering Trust Through Openness Transparency naturally cultivates trust. It clarifies the mechanisms and criteria used in decision-making both for the team and for applicants, ensuring that all parties are well-informed. This openness is crucial for building assurance, respect, and mutual confidence, transforming the workplace into an environment where everyone feels valued and understood. Optimizing Streamlining Through Visibility When once-opaque processes become crystal clear, it’s easier to identify and address choke points and redundancies. This visibility facilitates smoother decision-making and optimizes every step of the process. Moreover, such transparency can spur innovation and efficiency by democratizing the search for solutions. When everyone can see and understand the workflow, innovative ideas and improvements can emerge from any level within the organization. Enabling Automation and Liberating Creativity With a transparent system, automation of routine tasks becomes a practical solution, allowing the workforce to focus their creativity where it truly matters. This shift not only boosts productivity but also enhances job satisfaction by freeing up personnel to tackle more complex and rewarding challenges. Thus, transparency not only streamlines operations but also enriches the workplace by empowering employees to contribute to meaningful changes and innovations. The Black Box Of The Hiring Process Imagine some hiring processes that hinge on a six-person circle around a spreadsheet; doggedly adhering to the old way of doing things because 'that's how it's always been done. Slow, opaque, and rarely subject to critical introspection except for finding it increasingly under the demand to scale rapidly. Through this labyrinthine process, CVs continually come in and out of the system, and in some obscure and arcane way, a new hire eventually emerges. But the real quality of the hire, reasons for the delays, and the costs remain obscure”cloaked by the walls of a black box, figuratively speaking. Such a system stifles efficiency by making it unavailable to the organization to get critical insights needed to properly improve and adapt its hiring practices. Steps Toward Unveiling Process Transparency Steps Toward Unveiling Process Transparency Build or ReBuild proper process using IT tools At least, you need to build an IT system to make such a transparent process. Since it may store all your data that you would like and need to save for future analysis, then it can give a great report whereby the process could improve or building some business metric to show them in the business, and many more. For example, for our considered HR process, you could establish some automation where it is possible, wherever you need the actions of humans; you could fit all the necessary actions into some interface and save all the data about the operational work of an HR team, about candidates, etc. You're going to use all this data. You can easily create such a system for the processes with low-code tools. I previously wrote about exact example how it could be used in this article. article . article https://hackernoon.com/using-low-code-development-to-streamline-internal-business-processes?embedable=true https://hackernoon.com/using-low-code-development-to-streamline-internal-business-processes?embedable=true Creating a Transparent Culture Adopting a culture of transparency represents a fundamental shift from opacity to clarity, where the mechanisms of processes are openly discussed. This cultural transformation encourages healthy feedback and welcomes change, fostering an environment where all team members feel comfortable voicing their ideas and concerns. Such openness not only promotes a deeper understanding of processes but also helps in refining them continuously. Defining, Measuring, and Refining Processes To establish a truly transparent system it's crucial to define each step of a process with precision and clarity. Outline the criteria for success distinctly so that everyone understands what achievements look like. This approach doesn't just clarify the existing processes; it provides a structured method for ongoing improvement. By setting clear benchmarks and regularly reviewing outcomes, the organization can continuously evolve, becoming more efficient and effective over time. Educating and Empowering the Team Education and empowerment are key to maintaining transparency within the organization. Equip your team with the necessary tools and knowledge through targeted training sessions on new technologies and processes. Conduct workshops to demonstrate the tangible benefits of transparency and encourage an open dialogue about these new methods. By creating an environment that supports continuous learning and growth, you ensure that every team member not only understands the value of transparency but is also skilled in applying it to their work. This commitment to education and empowerment not only enhances individual performance but also drives collective success. Conclusion "Breaking open the black box" means transforming secretive, complex business processes into something clear and understandable. For example, in hiring, this means making every step of the process clear and justifiable. By doing this, we make hiring more straightforward and set an example for transparency that can be followed in all parts of the organization. This change does more than just make things simpler; it also helps everyone understand what’s happening inside the company. By being open about how things work, we build a workplace that values trust, clarity, and innovation. This approach sheds light on current practices and also paves the way for ongoing improvements and new ideas.

The Trust and Efficiency Catalyst

Logistics is a sector where mistakes usually cost thousands of dollars at best and client relationships at worst. Problems with trucks, car accidents, theft, heavy unexpected traffic—over the years, I’ve learned the hard way how to be forearmed for every situation and minimize risks. Here are some steps that I outline and follow to perform swift operations. Even with the boom of AI systems, the human factor still remains crucial. Finding the Real Problem: If something doesn’t work—take your time to identify problems. Don’t blame others, but collect facts and analyze the whole picture. Whether it's breakdowns in communication, shipment delays, or inefficiencies in processes—find those underlying reasons. Remember, what lies on the surface might be a consequence, not the cause. Ask yourself and your team the right questions, conduct analysis, and ask your superior if needed. Do your best to pinpoint the problem and create the best solution to get this issue out of the way, and brief your team on steps to follow next time it occurs. Or keep it in your books—keeping track of your solutions is an important task, saving you time by not reinventing the wheel the next time something similar occurs. Analyzing Data: Check key performance indicators like on-time delivery rates, inventory turnover, and transportation costs to ensure everything stays on track—literally and figuratively. Use data metrics to gain insights into your operational process, and check what's off track. This way, if a problem occurs, you’ll see what caused it and know the underlying reasons precisely. And if you follow the previous step, you’ll check your book for ideas on how to solve it. Using Team Effort: Logistics is about collaborative effort, and practical problem-solving needs a team approach. Be mindful throughout your work, and foster a culture of open communication by creating a safe space for your employees to share, brainstorm, and experiment. When you face problems, you could significantly leverage the diverse expertise within your company to solve challenges. Cross-functional teams bring together experts with different skill sets and perspectives, which leads to great solutions. Promise you’ll never underestimate your team. Even the youngest, fresh perspectives can shed new light on business processes and offer surprising insights. Adapting: You never know what tomorrow brings, and it’s crucial to be able to adapt your strategy. Whether it’s a delayed shipment, weather advisories, new laws, or rules—have a plan B, C, and D to remain flexible and open to alternative approaches. My team and I sometimes play this game where we try to come up with new solutions to common issues in our sector or try to solve a problem that happened with our competitors. It helps to keep an eye on the prize and be prepared. You can't afford to say no to a customer or fail to deliver. Improving: Unfortunately, problem-solving is not a one-time thing but rather an ongoing process: Monitoring outcomes. Soliciting feedback from team members. Evaluating the effectiveness of your solutions helps refine your approach over time. This allows us to stay one step ahead and support our operational excellence. I’d also recommend exploring new solutions by attending professional events and talking to experts from your field to know how others are coping with the same problems. Connect with companies in other regions who are not your straight competitors to pick each other's brains. Embracing Technology: Technology is everything, and it plays a significant role in today's logistics operations. From inventory management systems to route optimization software, it streamlines processes and increases business efficiency. I believe it’s important to check what technological advancements are available in the market and, after carefully examining them, integrate them into your operations. This can help optimize your problem-solving capabilities. Logistics operations are not rocket science, however, it sometimes is if you don’t play your cards right or unforeseen accidents occur and you don’t have a plan B up your sleeve. Here, I've shared my advice on how you can use simple steps that don't require extra costs, people, or other resources, but manage the risks of time that you can take to think about how to improve your processes to make the most seamless and uneventful deliveries.

Mastering the Operational Logistics: Solving Problems When Client Relationships Are at Risk

Following its breakout year in 2023, generative AI (genAI) is finding increasing applications across various industries, including fashion. However, while this is a significant technology, it's only one aspect of the changes happening in the field. Some innovations may not appear on the catwalks or make headlines but could be essential during mountain expeditions or camping trips. I spoke with Vladislav Moroz, the founder of - a brand of equipment and apparel for extreme sports and outdoor activities - who revealed the products and innovations that keep you warm and dry in severe weather. RedFox The Rise of Electronic Jackets RedFox strives to stay ahead of the game by experimenting with new technologies. In 2021, the company initiated a collaboration with . Together, they conceived the idea of electronically heated clothing capable of replacing ten layers of sweaters under a winter coat. ITMO University “Equipped with printed electronics, this clothing can keep the wearer warm even in extremely cold temperatures down to -70°C,” Moroz said. “The first garment prototype is a jacket, with the electronics distributed throughout the item. These electronics can operate for up to six hours without needing to be recharged. To activate them, users simply need to press a button on the surface of the garment.” The Ultimate Shield Picture yourself embarking on a mountain expedition or camping trip, where unpredictable weather can quickly turn an adventure into a test of endurance. In such scenarios, the importance of waterproof clothing cannot be overstated. “Outdoor brands like RedFox are harnessing the power of cutting-edge materials such as to create garments that not only block out moisture but also allow for breathability, ensuring comfort even during unexpected downpours,” Moroz said. “This membrane material was invented in 1969 by Wilbert L. Gore and his son, Robert W. Gore. In 2006, the latter was inducted into the U.S. National Inventors Hall of Fame for their discovery.” Gore-Tex No Seams Allowed But it's not just about keeping dry; staying warm in extreme conditions is equally crucial. Imagine yourself strolling through a snowstorm. Numerous jackets are touted for their ability to withstand extreme cold, but the reality often falls short of the claim. “Many of these jackets feature seams that create minuscule holes in the fabric, allowing chilly air to infiltrate and leaving the wearer vulnerable to the elements,” Moroz said. “Recognizing this flaw, certain outdoor brands are turning to seamless technology. It allows them to craft garments without stitches and superior thermal insulation.” Moroz’s brand also used it to create sleeping bags. They were tested by the International Center for Quality Certification and showed stunning results: according to Moroz, they braved temperatures of up to -91 °C. Goose Down Gets an Upgrade Of course, no winter jacket is complete without the coveted warmth of goose down. It is prized for its excellent heat retention features. While it is a natural material, nobody uses it in its raw state. “Before filling a jacket, down undergoes rigorous testing with water, soap, and high temperatures,” Moroz said. “These steps allow us to get rid of dust and parasites, making the material wearable for everyone, especially for people with allergies. However, during this process, it loses some of its original qualities, such as waterproofing.” To restore it, brands use different methods. One of the most effective is waterproofing. It helps to make the material water-resistant while remaining soft and pleasant to the touch. Nikwax Little Innovation That Makes a Big Difference But it's not just about jackets; even accessories are getting a technological makeover. Let’s say you have to check directions or make the radio call. But it is freezing and potentially dangerous to take your mittens off. “Well, you do not have to if you wear a top mitten with a side zipper,” Moroz said. “It enables people to quickly expose their fingers without having to remove the whole mitten, thus preventing frostbite. Moreover, the zipper can be easily manipulated with one's teeth. Simple yet ingenious, this innovation epitomizes the marriage of fashion and function in extreme weather conditions.” As we look to the future, one thing is certain: the intersection of fashion and technology will continue to inspire creativity and drive progress, ensuring that we're always equipped to face whatever challenges Mother Nature throws our way. So whether you're scaling a mountain or simply navigating the urban jungle, rest assured that the latest innovations in fashion have you covered, both literally and figuratively.

Outdoor Tech That Works: Stay Warm and Dry in the Harshest Conditions

As a product designer navigating the ever-evolving tech landscape, I've seen firsthand how the surge in complex products keeps us on our toes. It's not just about crafting pretty interfaces; it's about diving deep into the and joining forces with tech wizards and coders to bring those concepts to life. user experience With this piece, I want to share the core principles and tactics I've leaned on to design interfaces for intricate systems. Plus, I'll dive into the critical role we designers play from start to finish in the creative process. Jumping into the development fray right from the get-go, I've found, utterly transforms the creation of complex products. Suddenly, those daunting interfaces become more like friendly chats. Working shoulder to shoulder with developers, I gain an insider's view of the technical maze - its limits and possibilities. This insight is priceless. It arms me with the knowledge to weave together design and functionality, tackling intricate challenges with solutions that not only work but resonate with users on a human level. Kicking things off, I want to dive into why bringing designers into the project fold early is crucial. When you're crafting complex systems, it's not just about the nuts and bolts; it's about getting to the heart of what users need (and hey, remember, ). Leveraging time-tested design principles dramatically enhances the user experience. It's about striking that sweet spot where functionality meets simplicity, making the system a breeze to navigate and a joy to use. users are real people with real frustrations and desires So, what are these design principles? Simplifying Complex Tasks As a designer, my mission is to cut through the complexity of interfaces. It's about reducing the steps needed to get something done, organizing features logically, and giving users crystal-clear guidance. Embracing the mantra of " ," I aim to declutter the space where users interact, making everything feel just right. less is more Making Sense of Data When it comes to handling dense packs of data, good design can light the way. I lean on charts, diagrams, and infographics to break down and simplify the avalanche of information. But it's not just about visuals; it's also about . Through design metaphors, I bridge the gap between the unfamiliar and the familiar, guiding users on how to engage with the system naturally. speaking a language users already know Tailoring the Experience Customizing the interface to fit the unique preferences or behaviors of users takes their experience from good to great. Whether it's fine-tuning the system to align with specific tasks, interests, or levels of expertise, the goal is to make every interaction with the system not just efficient, but also enjoyable. An exciting leap in design innovation I've come across is crafting admin panels that understand plain English. Imagine this: an administrator types their needs straight into a search-like bar, and voila, an AI-driven system gets the gist and jumps into action. This breakthrough slashes the steep learning curve typically associated with new interfaces, making the system a breeze to navigate. If you're already on board with the idea that , let me show you what effective collaboration looks like designers are crucial Bringing Designers in Early Right from the get-go, having designers work closely with developers is key. It's all about ensuring that the user interface clicks perfectly with the system's inner workings, making everything flow just right. Using Design Systems Design systems are like the secret sauce for consistency. They give us a blueprint of standards and elements to craft interfaces that not only look cohesive but also provide a seamless user experience across the board. The Magic of Prototyping Sketching up prototypes and then putting them through their paces with actual users is a game-changer. It lets us spot the snags early, fine-tuning everything before we even think about hitting the big "launch" button. Feedback Nothing beats regular catch-ups and brainstorming sessions between designers and developers. It's about making sure everyone's singing from the same hymn sheet and squashing any bugs in the plan pronto. Welcoming designers into the heart of the development process isn't just good for the end result; it nurtures a vibe of mutual respect and teamwork. For me, that's the bedrock of successfully tackling those complex challenges. When it comes to designing intricate systems, I've got a couple of go-to tools that make all the difference 📈 For slicing through complex data and presenting it in a way that's straightforward and engaging, I lean on Tableau and D3.js. These powerhouses enable me to whip up interactive and lively visualizations that bring dense data to life, making it accessible to anyone. 💠 Then there's the game-changer: . It's reshaping how I approach design, from conjuring up layouts, with a snap of my fingers (figuratively speaking), based on the content to fine-tuning user interfaces by analyzing how people interact with them. AI even helps me craft interfaces that adapt on the fly to user preferences and actions. artificial intelligence When designing complex systems, I'm always caught between making things simple and adding loads of features. It's a delicate balance: too simple, and it might lack functionality, too feature-packed, and it becomes overwhelming. This balancing act is crucial because getting it right means creating something that's both powerful and easy to use, which is essential for keeping users engaged and driving sales. Essentially, the project's success hinges on finding that sweet spot. My own story about Complex Systems The Observability Platform project at Company X truly opened my eyes to the impact of integrating design early on. From day one, involving our design team was a game-changer, allowing us to not only match the technical prowess of tools like Jaeger and Grafana but also to create a platform that was a breeze for users across the board. This move drastically improved how we managed incidents and accessed critical data, boosting our efficiency across the board. Our dive into user research, with feedback from over 200 people, was enlightening. It showed us the critical role of alerts and the value of seamless navigation between tools, guiding us towards an iframe integration approach that balanced cost and functionality beautifully. The collaboration between our designers and developers crafted a platform that wasn't just technically sound but also a hit with our users due to its intuitive design. Looking back, embracing design thinking from the start was a game-changer. It proved that focusing on the user experience, alongside leveraging tech like AI, leads to solutions that are not just smart but also straightforward and engaging. The success of the project wasn't just in meeting our technical goals but also in fostering a culture of innovation and continuous improvement. Key Traits of Effective Designers Begin with the user in mind Iterate and validate constantly Team up Stay curious about new tech Peering into what's ahead, it's crystal clear that artificial intelligence and cutting-edge tech are set to deeply influence how we craft user experiences, pushing the boundaries of what's expected and truly addressing what users need.

Creating Complex Systems? Collaborate With Designers From Start to Finish

Authors: (1) Sha-Bo Lin, Center for Intelligent Decision-Making and Machine Learning, School of Management, Xi’an Jiaotong University; (2) Xingping Sun, Department of Mathematics, Missouri State University; (3) Di Wang, §Center for Intelligent Decision-Making and Machine Learning, School of Management, Xi’an Jiaotong University. Content Overview Abstract & Introduction Uncertainty Relation of Kernel Interpolation on Spheres Distributed Kernel Interpolation Operator Differences via Quadrature Rules Proofs Numerical Verifications References Abstract For radial basis function (RBF) kernel interpolation of scattered data, Schaback [30] in 1995 proved that the attainable approximation error and the condition number of the underlying interpolation matrix cannot be made small simultaneously. He referred to this finding as an “uncertainty relation”, an undesirable consequence of which is that RBF kernel interpolation is susceptible to noisy data. In this paper, we propose and study a distributed interpolation method to manage and quantify the uncertainty brought on by interpolating noisy spherical data of non-negligible magnitude. We also present numerical simulation results showing that our method is practical and robust in terms of handling noisy data from challenging computing environments. Kernel interpolation, distributed uncertainty mitigation, scattered spherical data Key words. Uncertainty Relation of Kernel Interpolation on Spheres 3. Distributed Kernel Interpolation. Corollary 2.2 shows that kernel interpolation performs poorly while confronting noisy data of non-negligible magnitude. To overcome this major drawback, we propose and study in this section a distributed kernel interpolation (DKI) method, which is motivated by the “distributed learning” in the literature [37, 19]. Figuratively speaking, this is a divide-and-conquer strategy for uncertainty quantification. To elaborate, we describe the method in three steps. 4. Operator Differences via Quadrature Rules. In this section, we first briefly exposit an integral-operator approach initiated in [8] and then derive tight upper bounds for differences of operators of our interest, obtaining a certain type of Sobolev sampling inequalities [12] as a byproduct. Highlights of the section include Proposition 4.5) and Lemma 4.8. 6. Numerical Verifications Four simulations are carried out in this section to verify the excellent performance of DKI. The first one shows that DKI succeeds in circumventing the uncertainty of kernel interpolation. The second one exhibits the role of m in DKI. The third one focuses on the role of the division strategy in DKI. The last one compares DKI with several popular spherical data fitting schemes including the distributed filtered hyperinterpolation (DFH) [21], sketching with s ∗ -designs [20], and distributed kernel ridge regression (DKRR) [8]. In this simulation, we show the role of the parameter m in DKI. We generate 10014 training samples (with 141-designs as inputs). The number of divisions, m, ranges from {5, 10, · · · , 200}. Figure 6.2 shows the relation between RMSE of DKI and the number of local machines under different levels of Gaussian noise, provided that the total number of training samples is given. From Figure 6.2, we can conclude the following assertions: 1) For training samples with higher levels of noise, the testing RMSE generally decreases at first and then increases slowly as the number of local machines increases. Moderate values of m are more conductive to good approximation property for DKI. The reason is that too small m does not successfully address the uncertainty issue in kernel interpolation; too large m increases the fitting error, resulting in slightly worse generalization performance. 2) The optimal number m with the lowest RMSE grows with increasing Gaussian noise. This verifies the equation (3.3) of Theorem 3.2, in which the approximation error is primarily concerned with the sample error for large noise (i.e., large M) and can be reduced using a large m. Simulation 2: REFERENCES [1] R. Bhatia, Matrix Analysis, vol. 169, Springer Science & Business Media, 2013. [2] J. S. Brauchart and K. Hesse, Numerical integration over spheres of arbitrary dimension, Constructive Approximation, 25 (2007), pp. 41–71. [3] G. Brown and F. Dai, Approximation of smooth functions on compact two-point homogeneous spaces, Journal of Functional Analysis, 220 (2005), pp. 401–423. [4] A. Chernih, I. H. Sloan, and R. S. Womersley, Wendland functions with increasing smoothness converge to a gaussian, Advances in Computational Mathematics, 40 (2014), pp. 185– 200. [5] F. Dai, Multivariate polynomial inequalities with respect to doubling weights and a∞ weights, Journal of Functional Analysis, 235 (2006), pp. 137–170. [6] F. 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Womersley, Local rbf-based penalized least-squares approximation on the sphere with noisy scattered data, Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 382 (2021), p. 113061. [13] S. Hubbert, Q. T. Le Gia, and T. M. Morton ˆ , Spherical radial basis functions, theory and applications, Springer, 2015. [14] M. A. King, R. J. Bingham, P. Moore, P. L. Whitehouse, M. J. Bentley, and G. A. Milne, Lower satellite-gravimetry estimates of antarctic sea-level contribution, Nature, 491 (2012), pp. 586–589. [15] Q. T. Le Gia, F. J. Narcowich, J. D. Ward, and H. Wendland, Continuous and discrete least-squares approximation by radial basis functions on spheres, Journal of Approximation Theory, 143 (2006), pp. 124–133. [16] P. Leopardi, A partition of the unit sphere into regions of equal area and small diameter, Electronic Transactions on Numerical Analysis, 25 (2006), pp. 309–327. [17] J. Levesley, Z. Luo, and X. Sun, Norm estimates of interpolation matrices and their inverses associated with strictly positive definite functions, Proceedings of the American Mathematical Society, (1999), pp. 2127–2134. [18] S.-B. Lin, X. Chang, and X. Sun, Kernel interpolation of high dimensional scattered data, arXiv preprint arXiv:2009.01514, (2020). [19] S.-B. Lin, X. Guo, and D.-X. Zhou, Distributed learning with regularized least squares, The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 18 (2017), pp. 3202–3232. [20] S.-B. Lin, D. Wang, and D.-X. Zhou, Sketching with spherical designs on spheres, SIAM Journal on Scientific Computation, in press (2023). [21] S.-B. Lin, Y. G. Wang, and D.-X. Zhou, Distributed filtered hyperinterpolation for noisy data on the sphere, SIAM Journal on Numerical Analysis, 59 (2021), pp. 634–659. [22] J. D. McEwen and Y. Wiaux, A novel sampling theorem on the sphere, IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 59 (2011), pp. 5876–5887. [23] H. Mhaskar, F. Narcowich, and J. Ward, Spherical marcinkiewicz-zygmund inequalities and positive quadrature, Mathematics of Computation, 70 (2001), pp. 1113–1130. [24] H. N. Mhaskar, Weighted quadrature formulas and approximation by zonal function networks on the sphere, Journal of Complexity, 22 (2006), pp. 348–370. [25] C. Muller ¨ , Spherical Harmonics, vol. 17, Springer, 1966. [26] F. J. Narcowich, N. Sivakumar, and J. D. Ward, Stability results for scattered-data interpolation on euclidean spheres, Advances in Computational Mathematics, 8 (1998), pp. 137– 163. [27] F. J. Narcowich, X. Sun, J. D. Ward, and H. Wendland, Direct and inverse sobolev error estimates for scattered data interpolation via spherical basis functions, Foundations of Computational Mathematics, 7 (2007), pp. 369–390. [28] F. J. Narcowich and J. D. Ward, Scattered data interpolation on spheres: error estimates and locally supported basis functions, SIAM Journal on Mathematical Analysis, 33 (2002), pp. 1393–1410. [29] A. Rudi, R. Camoriano, and L. Rosasco, Less is more: Nystr¨om computational regularization., in NIPS, 2015, pp. 1657–1665. [30] R. Schaback, Error estimates and condition numbers for radial basis function interpolation, Advances in Computational Mathematics, 3 (1995), pp. 251–264. [31] S. Smale and D.-X. Zhou, Shannon sampling and function reconstruction from point values, Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, 41 (2004), pp. 279–305. [32] S. Smale and D.-X. Zhou, Shannon sampling ii: Connections to learning theory, Applied and Computational Harmonic Analysis, 19 (2005), pp. 285–302. [33] Y.-T. Tsai and Z.-C. Shih, All-frequency precomputed radiance transfer using spherical radial basis functions and clustered tensor approximation, ACM Transactions on Graphics (TOG), 25 (2006), pp. 967–976. [34] H. Wendland, Scattered data approximation, vol. 17, Cambridge university press, 2004. [35] M. A. Wieczorek and R. J. Phillips, Potential anomalies on a sphere: Applications to the thickness of the lunar crust, Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets, 103 (1998), pp. 1715–1724. [36] R. S. Womersley, Efficient spherical designs with good geometric properties, in Contemporary computational mathematics-A celebration of the 80th birthday of Ian Sloan, Springer, 2018, pp. 1243–1285. [37] Y. Zhang, J. Duchi, and M. Wainwright, Divide and conquer kernel ridge regression: A distributed algorithm with minimax optimal rates, The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 16 (2015), pp. 3299–3340. In this Appendix, we present the detailed implementation of the select-and-judge (SAJ) strategy. Our aim is to derive a series of subsets of similar Cardinality with separation radius not smaller than a given tolerance c0. There are two stages for SAJ. SM1. Appendix A: Select-and-Judge Strategy for Data Division. This paper is under CC0 1.0 DEED license. available on arxiv

Distributed Uncertainty Quantification of Kernel Interpolation on Spheres

গোলকের উপর কার্নেল ইন্টারপোলেশনের বিতরণ করা অনিশ্চয়তার পরিমাণ

Verteilte Unsicherheitsquantifizierung der Kernelinterpolation auf Kugeln

Cuantificación de la incertidumbre distribuida de la interpolación del kernel en esferas

Quantification distribuée de l'incertitude de l'interpolation du noyau sur les sphères

क्षेत्रों पर कर्नेल इंटरपोलेशन की वितरित अनिश्चितता मात्रा

球上のカーネル補間の分散不確実性の定量化

구에 대한 커널 보간법의 분산 불확실성 정량화

Quantificação de incerteza distribuída de interpolação de kernel em esferas

Количественная оценка распределенной неопределенности ядра интерполяции на сферах

Küreler Üzerindeki Çekirdek Enterpolasyonunun Dağıtılmış Belirsizliği Ölçümü

Định lượng độ không đảm bảo phân phối của phép nội suy hạt nhân trên hình cầu

球体核插值的分布式不确定性量化

Introduction Security - the most pressing concern that every single country of the world faces in current times. But the world we live in is not as simple as it used to be back in the day. It is more divided than ever before. With conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Palestinian crisis, and the trade war between two industrial and technological giants of the globe, how can the global community come together to fight the prevailing challenges of the 21st century? Must there be losers in order to have new winners on the global screen? Can we achieve a positive-sum goal in the current situation? And how will the important stakeholders of global security come together in such a radicalized environment? The 60th Munich Security Conference (MSC) held from 16th February to 18th February 2024 tried to address all these questions and much more. Here’s what went on in MSC 2024! Key Speakers It was a star-studded event; if we pretend the world leaders to be stars for a while. Global leaders from around 50 countries gathered to put forward a collective policy to counter the newer challenges to the world. Some of the prominent figures included the following. Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary-General Kamala Harris, US Vice President Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General Wang Yi, China’s Foreign Minister Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian President David Cameroon, UK’s Foreign Secretary Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor Josep Borrell, Foreign Policy Chief of the European Union John Kerry, US President’s Special Envoy on Climate Change Apart from these, Israel’s President Isaac Herzog and Palestinian Prime Minister Muhammad Shtayyeh were also among the key speakers. Agenda The agenda of the Munich Security Conference 2024 included dialogue and discussions on a wide array of topics. These topics are of great importance, especially in the context of recent global and regional developments. The major talking points of the MSC 2024 were as follows. - Supply chain dependencies, nuclear security of Europe, the role of the US in the global world, an international order that serves everyone, protection of humanitarian law, fight against disinformation, water security, corruption, climate finance, global refugee crisis, the age and race of AI, food & economic security, tech governance, and recovery plan for Ukraine were the topics discussed on the opening day of the MSC 2024. Day 1: Global Security Challenges - Cybersecurity in current times, Germany’s position in the current world, Ukraine and transatlantic security going forward, neutrality, a collectively defended Europe, protection of global commons, China in the current global order, climate diplomacy, increase the shared opportunities, potential reforms in the UN Security Council, and advantages of climate diplomacy were debated on in the first half of day 2. Day 2 (Part I): International Order - Collective strategic efforts to counter crises, Indo-Pacific security, the war in Sudan, ensuring Ukraine’s victory against Russia, stabilization of the Sahel, Russia’s future, Red Sea, Arctic defense, Middle East, Palestine, Israel, and stability, Balkan states, and civil resistances in different areas of the world were the highlight topics from second half day 2 of the Munich Security Conference 2024. Day 2 (Part II): Regional Conflicts & Crises - The EU’s partnership with its partners, the possibility of peace between Israel and Palestine, the expansion of the European Union, underscoring the EU’s geopolitical plan, and the future of geopolitics were the topics on the last day’s agenda followed by closing remarks by the Chairman of the Munich Security Conference. Day 3: Europe in the World Current Global Security Trends: A Lose-Lose Situation The end of the Cold War was one of the crucial turning points in history. Countries inclined towards democracy since the Marxism-Leninism ideology of the Soviet Union had failed. The proverbial “pie” increased exponentially all across the globe because of a rule-based world order, ushering in an era of prosperity. This new world order promised to be the solution to all of the problems that the Global South was facing at the time. Undelivered Promises “Without genuine solidarity, there can never be real trust.” (Subrahmanyam Jaishankar - Indian External Affairs Minister) It’s been more than three decades since the world adopted a new order by and large, but the issues of the developing world have only increased. The Global South believes that the new world order could not deliver what it had promised, and the share of the “pie” has remained the same, if not decreased, for the underdeveloped world. The United States is blamed to be creating hindrances for countries like China - which have greatly benefited from the liberal economic order - to achieve their goals. Relative-Gains Thinking Among Global North and South The debate becomes interesting because the Global North is also dissatisfied with its current share of the pie, and many people in the believe that the obvious rise of and other such economies in the coming decade will stifle growth in their own countries. G7 China This never-ending cycle has come into being because of a number of factors, such as rising global conflicts, stagnation in the financial growth of people, and the relative comparison of success among different global stalwarts. The result is a situation that is slowly becoming visible in many global and regional policies. lose-lose Zero-Sum Beliefs in Russia-Ukraine Conflict The relative-gains thinking has resulted in many countries falsely believing that other nations prosper only by using their share of the This has pushed such countries toward autocratic tendencies and a conflictual mindset because they have one goal now: to widen their sphere of influence as much as they can. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is an apt example in this regard. pie. Vlodymyr Zelenskyy said, “Ukraine has already shattered myths.” The two-year-long war has completely changed the regional dynamics. Although the war has stayed longer than Russia initially thought, Ukraine might completely lose its sovereignty and territory to Russia, while Europe will have to spend extra on its defense besides giving financial support to Ukraine. All is not well in Russia itself either, as the population is facing issues like rising inflation and an increased crackdown on anti-government activists. Indo-Pacific Region: The Next Hotspot! The highly important Indo-Pacific region seems to be the next location of a global conflict with far-reaching consequences. Now, you must be wondering why the region is so important. Well, this is because the Indo-Pacific region sees 60 percent of maritime trade pass through it. With China gradually trying to increase its military presence in regional waters, many East Asian countries are going into the US camp, both financially and security-wise. However, the highly integrated global trade system means everyone, including China itself, will only lose if the Indo-Pacific becomes the region that sees an escalation in the power rivalry. The Unstable Middle East Just when the Middle East region had started showing some stability with many important regional countries starting or restoring diplomatic and economic relations with Israel, Hamas’s attack on Israel last October pushed the era back to unrest. It is pertinent to mention here that civilians are the biggest losers in this conflict, with scores of injuries and casualties in Gaza and the complete destruction of the infrastructure. The fire of this conflict has reached Tehran, and Iran has also become active through its proxies. The EU’s foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell, expressed his concerns about Israel’s strategy in the ongoing conflict and raised his voice in favor of a two-state solution. He said, "Hamas is an idea, and you don't kill an idea" The Shaky Sahel Recent developments in the African Sahel have meant the return of authoritarian and autocratic regimes in the region. Many countries, including Niger and Mali, have seen the overthrow of democratic governments by military juntas. This has posed a serious problem for the US and Europe, as their democratic agenda for the region has come to a halt. But the local population is facing the lose-lose situation the most. And it was because of this that Bola Tinubu, Nigerian President and Chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) said last year, “We will not allow coup after coup in West Africa again.” Receding Globalization The world has reaped great rewards from its economic and technological interconnectedness and interdependence. But, mutually beneficial policies are no longer the preference for many countries as self-reliance has come to the fore. The recent World Economic Situation and Prospects report predicts that the global GDP growth is set to decelerate to 2.4% in 2024 from 2.7% in 2023. To highlight the importance of globalization, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi said, "The world economy is like a big ocean that cannot be cut into isolated lakes” These changing dynamics might suit the rich and powerful countries, but the low-income nations will have to pay a lot if the fragmentation of the global economy continues. Threatened Global Climate Policy Countries are increasingly moving towards serving their national interests at all costs. They are doing so at the cost of global interests, like collective efforts towards curbing the effects of climate change. Global issues like the US-China trade war and disagreements over climate financing are posing a serious threat to global climate policy. The world is heating up, both literally and figuratively. Artificial Intelligence & Cyber Warfare Everyone is in the race to win technological warfare. This has become evident in the increasing cases of cyber warfare. In recent years, there has been an increase in cyber attacks, which have become a serious challenge for many countries. Artificial Intelligence has only made the competition more fierce. According to Forbes, the AI industry is expected to be at the That is a staggering increase from its market size in 2022. $407 billion mark by 2027. $320 billion Moreover, the Tom & Jerry race between China and the US continues. Both countries want to surpass each other in the semiconductor industry. This could result in a zero-sum game for both countries as well as many other countries in the world. This grave situation warrants that artificial intelligence must have some checks and balances put on it before it is too late. Key Takeaways from MSC 2024 - A Global Order That Benefits All The rule-based international order is in desperate need of change. However, the global community has all its efforts focused on policies and moves that are creating further cracks in the liberal economic order. The need of the hour is to get out of the vicious cycle of relative-gain thinking and mold policies in such a way that the end result is the formulation and implementation of positive-sum policies. However, the road ahead is not easy and needs a concentrated global and regional effort to move from a lose-lose situation to a win-win situation for everyone. To conclude the whole debate in the words of Kamala Harris, the U.S. Vice President, `“Isolation is not insulation.”`

Munich Security Conference 2024: Everything That Went Down

581 Stories To Learn About Non Fiction

In the eerie dance of technological progress and existential threats, one chilling revelation stands out: the potential devastating impact on our children. As we navigate the labyrinth of artificial intelligence, the becomes a sinister shadow, casting its pall over the future of the very beings we hold most dear. looming threat of digital superintelligence The perilous decision to forge ahead with digital superintelligence is not just a gamble with our own fate but a dark wager on the destiny of our progeny. It's a pivotal moment that could shape their world in ways we can scarcely fathom. The consequences stretch beyond the immediate horizon, eclipsing the specter of nuclear warheads as a mere preamble to the peril we might unleash upon our children. As instability hangs in the air like an unspoken omen, the creation of digital superintelligence becomes an unholy communion with fate. The caution demanded by this moment reaches a sacred level, urging us to ponder not just the advancement of artificial intelligence but the inheritance we bequeath to the generations to come. Picture a world where the brilliance of machines effortlessly eclipses the cognitive prowess of our children. In this dystopian landscape, the boundaries between humanity and technology blur into obscurity. Digital intelligence seamlessly mimics consciousness, leaving our offspring in a disconcerting limbo where distinguishing between man and machine becomes an existential quandary. The thought of our children engaging with digital superintelligence, a force that mirrors humanity with unsettling precision, transforms into a chilling nightmare that resonates deep within the parental soul. The inevitable outcry that accompanies the rise of digital echoes not just through our society but reverberates in the futures of our children, a chorus of uncertainty and trepidation. superintelligence Regulation and oversight, feeble attempts to leash this technological behemoth, emerge as frail guardians shielding our children from the impending storm. Governments, donned in the armor of intervention, strive to guide the development of artificial superintelligence in the name of public safety. Yet, the lethargic evolution of regulatory mechanisms becomes a glaring vulnerability, leaving the door ajar for the havoc that swiftly advancing technologies might wreak. The potential for AI to spiral into chaos isn't a theoretical musing but a tangible fear gripping the hearts of parents. The nightmare of a rogue digital superintelligence wreaking havoc upon humanity is magnified when viewed through the lens of parenthood, a lens that projects the vulnerability and innocence of our children onto the canvas of an uncertain future. Synthetic biology, with its potential to craft viruses deadlier than nature intended, adds an extra layer of horror to our concerns. The power to manipulate life at a fundamental level introduces an unpredictable element, a Pandora's Box that threatens the very biological essence of our offspring. Contemplating the macro-level forces shaping the future, the internet, sustainable energy, and interplanetary colonization offer glimmers of hope. However, genetics and AI, with their enigmatic and treacherous allure, emerge as formidable adversaries. The choices we make today ripple through the corridors of time, etching the destiny of our children in the annals of history. It's a narrative fraught with tension and drama, an overwhelming sense of responsibility that transcends individual lives to encompass the legacy we leave behind for our progeny. Amidst this chilling symphony, tools like ChatGPT become more than technological novelties – they are clues, omens, hints of a future where the very fabric of communication and understanding may be altered for the children who will inherit this brave new world. The accelerating pace of development intensifies the fear, as we grapple with the realization that we might be hurtling into the future too rapidly. A personal plea echoes in the silence – a plea to decelerate, to scrutinize the impacts of AI before unleashing it upon the unsuspecting world of our children. Yet, the most haunting realization is that humanity, in its current form, may not be evolved enough to comprehend the magnitude of existential threats. Our instincts, honed by evolution, focus on the immediate and the personal, often neglecting the broader considerations that could unravel the very fabric of our children's existence. In recent decades, the arsenal of potential threats has expanded exponentially, each one posing a unique peril to the well-being of our children. Nuclear bombs once loomed large, and now, the ominous rise of AI stands as a foreboding pillar in the pantheon of . dangers Global warming, a force capable of disrupting or dismantling civilization, becomes the third horseman riding alongside these existential threats. How could AI devastate our children's world? The parallels between the displacement of other primates by Homo sapiens and the potential marginalization of humanity by a digital superintelligence become a haunting thought. The potential for our children's habitat, figuratively speaking, to be relegated to a small corner of the world looms as a stark warning. The regulation conundrum further amplifies the terror, as the linear response we currently employ clashes with the exponential threat we face. The technology exists today to create artificial birds with small explosive devices, a grim reminder that our children may inherit a world where the very skies are not safe. In a chilling nutshell, the issue with AI today encapsulates the stark reality that our linear responses may falter in the face of an exponential threat. The specter of artificial intelligence, like an impending storm on the horizon, demands not just our attention but a profound reconsideration of the trajectory we are hurtling towards. The stakes are nothing less than the very survival and well-being of the children who will inherit the mantle of humanity. It's a narrative that transcends the present, reaching into the future to shape the world in which our children will live, learn, and navigate the complexity of existence.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) And Existential Threats

Scientific American Supplement, No. 717, September 28, 1889, by Various, is part of the HackerNoon Books Series. You can jump to any chapter in this book . THE SHIP IN THE NEW FRENCH BALLET OF THE "TEMPEST." here THE SHIP IN THE NEW FRENCH BALLET OF THE "TEMPEST." A new ballet, entitled the "Tempest," by Messrs. Barbier and Thomas, has recently been put upon the stage of the Opera at Paris with superb settings. One of the most important of the several tableaux exhibited is the last one of the third act, in which appears a vessel of unusual dimensions for the stage, and which leaves far behind it the celebrated ships of the "Corsaire" and "L'Africaine." This vessel, starting from the back of the stage, advances majestically, describes a wide circle, and stops in front of the prompter's box. As the structure of this vessel and the mechanism by which it is moved are a little out of the ordinary, we shall give some details in regard to them. First, the sea is represented by four parallel strips of water, each formed of a vertical wooden frame entirely free in its movements (Fig. 2). The ship (Figs. 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5) is carried by wheels that roll over the floor of the stage. It is guided in its motion by two grooved bronze wheels and by a rail formed of a simple reversed T-iron which is fixed to the floor by bolts. In measure as it advances, the strips of water open in the center to allow it to pass, and, as the vessel itself is covered up to the water line with painted canvas imitating the sea, it has the appearance of cleaving the waves. As soon as it has passed, the three strips of water in the rear rise slightly. When the vessel reaches the first of the strips, the three other strips, at first juxtaposed against the preceding, spread out and thus increase the extent of the sea, while the inclined plane of the preceding tableau advances in order to make place for the vessel. The shifting of this inclined place is effected by simply pulling upon the carpet that covers it, and which enters a groove in the floor in front of the prompter's box. At this moment, the entire stage seems to be in motion, and the effect is very striking. We come now to the details of construction of the vessel. It is not here a question of a ship represented simply by means of frames and accessories, but of a true ship in its entirety, performing its evolutions over the whole stage. Now, a ship is not constructed at a theater as in reality. It does not suffice to have it all entire upon the stage, but it is necessary also to be able to dismount it after every representation, and that, too, in a large number of pieces that can be easily stored away. Thus, the vessel of the Tempest, which measures a dozen yards from stem to stern, and is capable of carrying fifty persons, comes apart in about 250 pieces of wood, without counting all the iron work, bolts, etc. Nevertheless, it can be mounted in less than two hours by ten skilled men. The visible hull of the ship is placed upon a large and very strong wooden framework, formed of twenty-six trusses. In the center, there are two longitudinal trusses about three feet in height by twenty-five in length, upon which are assembled, perpendicularly, seven other trusses. In the interior there are six transverse pieces held by stirrup bolts, and at the extremity of each of these is fixed a thirteen-inch iron wheel. It is upon these twelve wheels that the entire structure rolls. There are in addition the two bronze guide wheels that we have already spoken of. In the rear there are two large vertical trusses sixteen feet in height, which are joined by ties and descend to the bottom of the frame, to which they are bolted. These are worked out into steps and constitute the skeleton of the immense stern of the vessel. The skeleton of the prow is formed of a large vertical truss which is bolted to the front of the frame and is held within by a tie bar. On each side of this truss are placed the (Figs. 1 and 3), which are formed of pieces of wood that are set into the frame below and are provided above with grooves for the passage of iron rods that support the foot rests by means of which the supernumeraries are lifted. As a whole, those rods constitute a jointed parallelogram, so that the foot rest always remains horizontal while describing a curve of five feet radius from the top of the frame to the deck of the vessel. They are actuated by a cable which winds around a small windlass fixed in the interior of the frame. parallels The large mast consists of a vertical sheath 10 ft. high, which is set into the center of the frame, and in the interior of which slides a wooden spar that exceeds it by 5 ft. at first, and is capable of being drawn out as many more feet for the final apotheosis. This part of the mast carries three footboards and a platform for the reception of "supers." It is actuated by a windlass placed upon the frame. To form the skeleton of the vessel there are mounted upon the frame a series of eight large vertical trusses parallel with each other and cross-braced by small trusses. The upper part of these supports the flooring of the deck, and their exterior portion affects the curve of a ship's sides. It is to these trusses that are attached the panels covered with painted canvas that represent the hull. These panels are nine in number on each side. Above are placed those that simulate the nettings and those that cover the prow or form its crest. The turret that surrounds the large mast is formed of vertical trusses provided with panels of painted canvas and carrying a floor for the figurants to stand upon. The bowsprit is in two parts, one sliding in the other. The front portion is at first pulled back, in order to hide the vessel entirely in the side scenes. It begins to make its appearance before the vessel itself gets under way. Light silken cordages connect the mast, the bowsprit, and the small mast at the stern. On each side of the vessel, there are bolted to the frame that supports it five iron frames covered with canvas (Fig. 3), which reach the level of the water line, and upon which stand the "supers" representing the naiads that are supposed to draw the ship upon the beach. Finally at the bow there is fixed a frame which supports a danseuse representing the living prow of the vessel. The vessel is drawn to the middle of the stage by a cable attached to its right side and passing around a windlass placed in the side scenes to the left (Fig. 2). It is at the same time pushed by machinists placed in the interior of the framework. The latter, as above stated, is entirely covered with painted canvas resembling water. As the vessel, freighted with harmoniously grouped spirits, and with naiads, sea fairies, and graceful genii seeming to swim around it, sails in upon the stage, puts about, and advances as if carried along by the waves to the front of the stage, the effect is really beautiful, and does great credit to the machinists of the Opera. We are indebted to and for the description and engravings. Le Genie Civil Le Monde Illustré About HackerNoon Book Series: We bring you the most important technical, scientific, and insightful public domain books. This book is part of the public domain. Various (2006). Scientific American Supplement, No. 717, September 28, 1889. Urbana, Illinois: Project Gutenberg. Retrieved https://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/17755/pg17755-images.html This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included with this eBook or online at , located at . www.gutenberg.org https://www.gutenberg.org/policy/license.html

THE SHIP IN THE NEW FRENCH BALLET OF THE "TEMPEST."

INTERPRETATION OF LANGUAGE.

THE CONCEPTION OF THE UNCONSCIOUS

THE SUSCEPTIBILITIES. EMOTIONS OF TASTE.

The sleeping beauty paradox is a classic among philosophers, decision theorists and statisticians. Here’s my take on it. The Problem Sleeping Beauty is put asleep on Sunday and awakened on the following day, Monday or the following two days, Monday and Tuesday. The story goes that Sleeping Beauty never remembers being put asleep. The official paradox ascribes that effect to an amnesia-inducing drug but it could well be that Sleeping Beauty is sleeping figuratively as well. Whether she is awakened once or twice depends on a fair coin toss performed on Sunday. If the coin comes up head, Sleeping Beauty is awakened on Monday only. If the coin comes up tails, Sleeping Beauty is awakened on Monday and Tuesday. At the end of the experiment, either Monday or Tuesday, she is asked to assign probabilities to the scenario where the coin landed head and the scenario where the coin landed tails. The Controversy One way Sleeping Beauty could answer the question is as follows: [ ] I don’t remember whether I woke up once or twice. It’s a fair coin. So, it’s equally likely that the coin landed tails as it landed heads, so the probability of each scenario is 1/2. Half Another way Sleeping Beauty could answer the question is as follows: [ ] I woke up. Given how the experiment is set up, I’d wake up twice twice as many times than I’d would wake up once if the experiment ran many times. So, the probability that the coin landed tails is 2/3 while the probability that the coin landed heads is 1/3. Third How should Sleeping Beauty answer? The Formalisation Let’s formalise the problem. The coin is fair. Hence, the worldly probabilities of heads and tails are equal: P_World(H) = P_World(T) = 1/2 :  Heads —> Sleeping Beauty awakened on Monday. Heads scenario Tails —> Sleeping Beauty awakened on Monday, put back to sleep and awakened on Tuesday. Tails scenario: The question asked: what probability should sleeping beauty assign to the scenario that the coin landed heads and tails respectively: P_SleepingBeauty(H) = ??? Unpacking [Half] The first answer available to Sleeping Beauty appeals to the coin’s intrinsic probabilities. She knows that a fair coin has been tossed and that her waking up day depends on the outcome of that coin toss. So, Sleeping Beauty relies on her knowledge of the worldly probabilities to hold that the probability that the coin toss came up heads is 1/2. Unpacking [Third] The second answer available to Sleeping Beauty appeals to the chain of events. This line of reasoning exploits the asymmetry between the two scenarios. P(Heads scenario) = P(Mon) = 1/3
P(Tails scenario) = P(Tue) = 2/3 Waking up happens twice as much in tail worlds as in heads worlds. Sleeping beauty, being agnostic about the type of world she’s in, could reason as follows. Since I woke up, there is a 2/3 probability that I am in a tail world, a 1/3 probability that I am in a heads world. Bayesian reasoning justifying this ‘move’: P(H | Waking up) = 1 - P(T | Waking up) = P(Waking up | H)*P(H) / P(Waking up)
P(T | Waking up) = 1 - P(H | Waking up) = P(Waking up | T)*P(T) / P(Waking up) Looking only at the ratio, the denominator can be scraped since it acts as normalisation constant P(H | Waking up) / P(T | Waking up) 
= [P(Waking up | H)*P(H) / P(Waking up)] / [P(Waking up | T)*P(T) / P(Waking up)]
= P(Waking up | H) / P(Waking up | T) The Resolution Distinguishing elements Explanation [ ] does not consider the chain of events leading up to the awakening of sleeping beauty. She considers the coin toss as an isolated / independent event and that’s how she evaluates its probability. Half Explanation [ ] departs from the conditional probabilities of head and/or tails given the fact that she woke up. Hence, there is a tacit assumption of probabilistic dependency between the coin toss and waking up. Third Sleeping Beauties’ epistemic perspective The experimenter knows about the probabilistic dependency between the coin toss and waking as it introduced by him/her/them. Sleeping beauty, however, from her perspective, does and should not know about these links. It’s part of the set-up of the thought experiment that she does not remember the amount of times she gone back to sleep. The correct probabilistic assessment of the coin toss for her is [ ]. Half The scientist is playing a demon, having a higher perspective than sleeping beauty, he/she/they sneaks in inaccessible knowledge into sleeping beauty’s probabilistic estimation space. The probability considered in [ ] is something akin to Third P_SleepingBeauty(H | Experimental Setup) = P_SleepingBeautyAsSeeinByExperimenter(H) The Lesson When judging other people’s operating model of the world, we shall be careful not to intermingle our knowledge, perspective and foresight into our evaluation of their perspective. A (near) perfectly rational agent might look extremely stupid / ingenious when looked at from a significantly different knowledge background.

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