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The next day Lord Raymond called at Perdita’s cottage, on his way to Windsor Castle

CASTLE RICHMOND—BROWN, JONES, AND ROBINSON—NORTH AMERICA—ORLEY FARM.

Courcy Castle was dull

Lessons from Courcy Castle

The widow of Charles of Durazzo was shut up in the castle of Ovo

The Outlaw of Torn by Edgar Rice Burroughs is part of the HackerNoon Books Series. You can jump to any chapter in this book here . Chapter VIII The Outlaw of Torn Chapter VIII As Norman of Torn rode out from the castle of De Stutevill, Father Claude dismounted from his sleek donkey within the ballium of Torn. The austere stronghold, notwithstanding its repellent exterior and unsavory reputation, always extended a warm welcome to the kindly, genial priest; not alone because of the deep friendship which the master of Torn felt for the good father, but through the personal charm, and lovableness of the holy man’s nature, which shone alike on saint and sinner. It was doubtless due to his unremitting labors with the youthful Norman, during the period that the boy’s character was most amenable to strong impressions, that the policy of the mighty outlaw was in many respects pure and lofty. It was this same influence, though, which won for Father Claude his only enemy in Torn; the little, grim, gray, old man whose sole aim in life seemed to have been to smother every finer instinct of chivalry and manhood in the boy, to whose training he had devoted the past nineteen years of his life. As Father Claude climbed down from his donkey—fat people do not “dismount”—a half dozen young squires ran forward to assist him, and to lead the animal to the stables. The good priest called each of his willing helpers by name, asking a question here, passing a merry joke there with the ease and familiarity that bespoke mutual affection and old acquaintance. As he passed in through the great gate, the men-at-arms threw him laughing, though respectful, welcomes and within the great court, beautified with smooth lawn, beds of gorgeous plants, fountains, statues and small shrubs and bushes, he came upon the giant, Red Shandy, now the principal lieutenant of Norman of Torn. “Good morrow, Saint Claude!” cried the burly ruffian. “Hast come to save our souls, or damn us? What manner of sacrilege have we committed now, or have we merited the blessings of Holy Church? Dost come to scold, or praise?” “Neither, thou unregenerate villain,” cried the priest, laughing. “Though methinks ye merit chiding for the grievous poor courtesy with which thou didst treat the great Bishop of Norwich the past week.” “Tut, tut, Father,” replied Red Shandy. “We did but aid him to adhere more closely to the injunctions and precepts of Him whose servant and disciple he claims to be. Were it not better for an Archbishop of His Church to walk in humility and poverty among His people, than to be ever surrounded with the temptations of fine clothing, jewels and much gold, to say nothing of two sumpter beasts heavy laden with runlets of wine?” “I warrant his temptations were less by at least as many runlets of wine as may be borne by two sumpter beasts when thou, red robber, had finished with him,” exclaimed Father Claude. “Yes, Father,” laughed the great fellow, “for the sake of Holy Church, I did indeed confiscate that temptation completely, and if you must needs have proof in order to absolve me from my sins, come with me now and you shall sample the excellent discrimination which the Bishop of Norwich displays in the selection of his temptations.” “They tell me you left the great man quite destitute of finery, Red Shandy,” continued Father Claude, as he locked his arm in that of the outlaw and proceeded toward the castle. “One garment was all that Norman of Torn would permit him, and as the sun was hot overhead, he selected for the Bishop a bassinet for that single article of apparel, to protect his tonsured pate from the rays of old sol. Then, fearing that it might be stolen from him by some vandals of the road, he had One Eye Kanty rivet it at each side of the gorget so that it could not be removed by other than a smithy, and thus, strapped face to tail upon a donkey, he sent the great Bishop of Norwich rattling down the dusty road with his head, at least, protected from the idle gaze of whomsoever he might chance to meet. Forty stripes he gave to each of the Bishop’s retinue for being abroad in bad company; but come, here we are where you shall have the wine as proof of my tale.” As the two sat sipping the Bishop’s good Canary, the little old man of Torn entered. He spoke to Father Claude in a surly tone, asking him if he knew aught of the whereabouts of Norman of Torn. “We have seen nothing of him since, some three days gone, he rode out in the direction of your cottage,” he concluded. “Why, yes,” said the priest, “I saw him that day. He had an adventure with several knights from the castle of Peter of Colfax, from whom he rescued a damsel whom I suspect from the trappings of her palfrey to be of the house of Montfort. Together they rode north, but thy son did not say whither or for what purpose. His only remark, as he donned his armor, while the girl waited without, was that I should now behold the falcon guarding the dove. Has he not returned?” “No,” said the old man, “and doubtless his adventure is of a nature in line with thy puerile and effeminate teachings. Had he followed my training, without thy accurst priestly interference, he had made an iron-barred nest in Torn for many of the doves of thy damned English nobility. An’ thou leave him not alone, he will soon be seeking service in the household of the King.” “Where, perchance, he might be more at home than here,” said the priest quietly. “Why say you that?” snapped the little old man, eyeing Father Claude narrowly. “Oh,” laughed the priest, “because he whose power and mien be even more kingly than the King’s would rightly grace the royal palace,” but he had not failed to note the perturbation his remark had caused, nor did his off-hand reply entirely deceive the old man. At this juncture, a squire entered to say that Shandy’s presence was required at the gates, and that worthy, with a sorrowing and regretful glance at the unemptied flagon, left the room. For a few moments, the two men sat in meditative silence, which was presently broken by the old man of Torn. “Priest,” he said, “thy ways with my son are, as you know, not to my liking. It were needless that he should have wasted so much precious time from swordplay to learn the useless art of letters. Of what benefit may a knowledge of Latin be to one whose doom looms large before him. It may be years and again it may be but months, but as sure as there be a devil in hell, Norman of Torn will swing from a king’s gibbet. And thou knowst it, and he too, as well as I. The things which thou hast taught him be above his station, and the hopes and ambitions they inspire will but make his end the bitterer for him. Of late I have noted that he rides upon the highway with less enthusiasm than was his wont, but he has gone too far ever to go back now; nor is there where to go back to. What has he ever been other than outcast and outlaw? What hopes could you have engendered in his breast greater than to be hated and feared among his blood enemies?” “I know not thy reasons, old man,” replied the priest, “for devoting thy life to the ruining of his, and what I guess at be such as I dare not voice; but let us understand each other once and for all. For all thou dost and hast done to blight and curse the nobleness of his nature, I have done and shall continue to do all in my power to controvert. As thou hast been his bad angel, so shall I try to be his good angel, and when all is said and done and Norman of Torn swings from the King’s gibbet, as I only too well fear he must, there will be more to mourn his loss than there be to curse him. “His friends are from the ranks of the lowly, but so too were the friends and followers of our Dear Lord Jesus; so that shall be more greatly to his honor than had he preyed upon the already unfortunate. “Women have never been his prey; that also will be spoken of to his honor when he is gone, and that he has been cruel to men will be forgotten in the greater glory of his mercy to the weak. “Whatever be thy object: whether revenge or the natural bent of a cruel and degraded mind, I know not; but if any be curst because of the Outlaw of Torn, it will be thou—I had almost said, unnatural father; but I do not believe a single drop of thy debased blood flows in the veins of him thou callest son.” The grim old man of Torn had sat motionless throughout this indictment, his face, somewhat pale, was drawn into lines of malevolent hatred and rage, but he permitted Father Claude to finish without interruption. “Thou hast made thyself and thy opinions quite clear,” he said bitterly, “but I be glad to know just how thou standeth. In the past there has been peace between us, though no love; now let us both understand that it be war and hate. My life work is cut out for me. Others, like thyself, have stood in my path, yet today I am here, but where are they? Dost understand me, priest?” And the old man leaned far across the table so that his eyes, burning with an insane fire of venom, blazed but a few inches from those of the priest. Father Claude returned the look with calm level gaze. “I understand,” he said, and, rising, left the castle. Shortly after he had reached his cottage, a loud knock sounded at the door, which immediately swung open without waiting the formality of permission. Father Claude looked up to see the tall figure of Norman of Torn, and his face lighted with a pleased smile of welcome. “Greetings, my son,” said the priest. “And to thee, Father,” replied the outlaw. “And what may be the news of Torn. I have been absent for several days. Is all well at the castle?” “All be well at the castle,” replied Father Claude, “if by that you mean have none been captured or hanged for their murders. Ah, my boy, why wilt thou not give up this wicked life of thine? It has never been my way to scold or chide thee, yet always has my heart ached for each crime laid at the door of Norman of Torn.” “Come, come, Father,” replied the outlaw, “what do I that I have not good example for from the barons, and the King, and Holy Church. Murder, theft, rapine! Passeth a day over England which sees not one or all perpetrated in the name of some of these? “Be it wicked for Norman of Torn to prey upon the wolf, yet righteous for the wolf to tear the sheep? Methinks not. Only do I collect from those who have more than they need, from my natural enemies; while they prey upon those who have naught. “Yet,” and his manner suddenly changed, “I do not love it, Father. That thou know. I would that there might be some way out of it, but there is none. “If I told you why I wished it, you would be surprised indeed, nor can I myself understand; but, of a verity, my greatest wish to be out of this life is due to the fact that I crave the association of those very enemies I have been taught to hate. But it is too late, Father, there can be but one end and that the lower end of a hempen rope.” “No, my son, there is another way, an honorable way,” replied the good Father. “In some foreign clime there be opportunities abundant for such as thee. France offers a magnificent future to such a soldier as Norman of Torn. In the court of Louis, you would take your place among the highest of the land. You be rich and brave and handsome. Nay do not raise your hand. You be all these and more, for you have learning far beyond the majority of nobles, and you have a good heart and a true chivalry of character. With such wondrous gifts, naught could bar your way to the highest pinnacles of power and glory, while here you have no future beyond the halter. Canst thou hesitate, Norman of Torn?” The young man stood silent for a moment, then he drew his hand across his eyes as though to brush away a vision. “There be a reason, Father, why I must remain in England for a time at least, though the picture you put is indeed wondrous alluring.” And the reason was Bertrade de Montfort. About HackerNoon Book Series: We bring you the most important technical, scientific, and insightful public domain books. This book is part of the public domain. Edgar Rice Burroughs (1995). The Outlaw of Torn. Urbana, Illinois: Project Gutenberg. Retrieved October 2022 https://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/369/pg369-images.html This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org , located at https://www.gutenberg.org/policy/license.html .

As Norman of Torn rode out from the castle of De Stutevill

Coding is like building a castle with Legos. You've got all the pieces, but if you don't put them together correctly, you end up with a wobbly, unstable structure. To  build a sturdy code castle and avoid pesky mistakes, it's important to follow some best practices. Have a Blueprint First and foremost, it's important to before you start building. Just like you wouldn't start building a castle without a plan, you shouldn't start coding without a plan either. Take the time to think about the different components of your code and how they will interact. This will help you identify any potential issues before they happen, and make your coding process more efficient. have a blueprint Use Version Control Next, , like Git, to keep track of all the changes you make to your code castle. This is like having a time machine for your code. If something goes wrong, you can easily roll back to a previous version without having to start all over again. use version control Test Often is also an essential part of building a sturdy code castle. The earlier you catch errors, the easier they are to fix. So, make sure to test your code often, and catch those pesky bugs before they can do any real damage. Testing Organize Your Codebase Just like a castle needs to be organized and easy to navigate, so does your code. Keep your by using consistent formatting, commenting, and naming conventions. This will make it easier for others to understand and work with your code, and will also help you keep track of what's going on. codebase organized Embrace Debugging , like breakpoints, are like having a treasure map for your code. They help you find and fix errors quickly and efficiently. So, make sure to use them often. Debugging tools Avoid Hardcoding values or parameters in your code. It's like trying to fit a square peg in a round hole. It may work for now, but it will make it more difficult to maintain and update your code castle in the long run. Avoid hardcoding Update Your Tools Just like a knight needs the right armor and weapons to go into battle, a coder needs the to conquer coding challenges. A good development environment is like a knight's castle - it keeps you protected and organized. So, make sure your development environment is set up correctly and always keep it updated. right tools and environment Keep Up with Industry Standards Another thing to keep in mind is to . Think of it like a knight constantly training and learning new techniques to defeat new enemies. The same goes for coding, you should always be learning and adapting to new technologies and methodologies. stay up-to-date with the latest industry standards and best practices Teamwork Makes the Dream Work Another thing to keep in mind is that coding is a team sport, just like a knight going to battle with his comrades. Collaborating with a colleague through is like having a trusty squire by your side. Pair programming allows two developers to work on the same codebase and share ideas and feedback, just like two knights strategizing before a battle. pair programming Improve and Develop Your Skills Of course, no knight or coder is perfect and everyone makes mistakes. But the important thing is to learn from them and use them as opportunities to . Like a knight learning from his battles to become stronger, you should learn from your coding mistakes to become a better coder. improve and develop your skills Take Breaks And lastly, don’t forget to ! Just like a knight needs to rest and recover after a battle, a coder needs to rest and refresh their mind to stay sharp. So, take regular breaks to recharge and come back to your code with a fresh perspective take breaks So, grab your coding tools and start building that castle! With these best practices in mind, you'll be able to avoid mistakes and build a sturdy, well-functioning code castle. Happy coding!

Code like You're Building a Lego Castle

The Noonification: Bouncy Castle (1/19/2023)

Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions. Stick a fork in it, ‘cause we’re done with inflation in Pax Americana. Hip hip hooray!… /s US CPI YoY Index As you can see from the chart above, the inflation measured by the (flawed and misleading) Consumer Price Index (CPI) series published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics peaked around 9% in mid-2022 and is now hurtling down towards the all-important 2% level. There are many who think that the CPI’s recent steady downtrend can mean only one thing – Sir Powell is getting primed to turn back on the free monaaay taps and make it rain like it's March 2020. With America – and possibly the world – on the verge of a recession, those prognosticators would argue that our esteemed Lord Powell is looking for every opportunity to pivot away from his current Quantitative Tightening (QT) policies, which would shoulder a good chunk of the blame if we were to enter into an economic downturn. And with the CPI moving lower, he can now point to the dip and say that his righteous campaign to slay the beast of inflation has succeeded – making it safe to turn the taps back on. I’m not so sure these forecasters are right, but more on that in a bit. For now, let’s assume that the market believes this is the likeliest path forward – begging the question, how can we expect Bitcoin to react? To accurately model that out, we must remember two important things about Bitcoin. The first is that Bitcoin and the broader crypto capital markets are the only markets that are truly free from manipulation by central bankers and large global financial institutions. “But what about all that alleged shady behavior at failed companies like Three Arrows Capital, FTX, Genesis, Celsius, etc?” you might ask. And it’s a fair question – but my response would be that these firms failed as crypto market prices corrected, and the market quickly found a much lower clearing price at which leverage was washed out of the system. If the same reckless behavior had occurred in the parasitic TradFi system, the authorities would have attempted to delay the reckoning of the market by propping up the failing entities – as they always do – and in the process undermined the very economies they are supposed to be protecting (thanks for nothing!). But the crypto space faced its reckoning head-on and quickly purged itself of poorly run businesses with flawed business models, laying the groundwork for a swift and healthy rebound. The second thing to remember about Bitcoin is that, because it is a reaction against the profligacy of the world’s global fiat monetary system, its price is heavily dependent on the future path of USD global liquidity (due to USD’s role as the global reserve currency). I spoke at length about this concept and my USD Liquidity Index in my recent essay “ ”. To that end, over the last two months, Bitcoin has outperformed a flatlined USD Liquidity Index value. This indicates to me that the market believes the Fed pivot is upon us. Teach Me Daddy Gold (yellow), Bitcoin (green), USD Liquidity Index (white), Indexed at 100 Looking at the price action of Bitcoin, it is currently pumping off of a low base. From here, we can identify a few different potential paths forward depending on what is actually driving the rally: Bitcoin is simply experiencing a natural bounce off the local lows of sub $16k. Rally Catalyst Scenario 1: If this rally is really just a natural rebound off of local lows, I expect that Bitcoin will subsequently find a new plateau and move sideways until USD liquidity conditions improve. : Bitcoin is rallying because the market is frontrunning a resumption of Fed USD money printing. If this is the case, I see two possible scenarios playing out: Rally Catalyst Scenario 2 : If the Fed does not follow through with a pivot, or multiple Fed governors talk down any expectation of a pivot even after “good” CPI prints, Bitcoin will likely crash back down towards previous lows. Scenario 2A If the Fed does follow through with a pivot, Bitcoin continues its strong performance, and this rally becomes the start of a secular bull market. Scenario 2B: Obviously, we all want to believe that we are headed toward Scenario 2B. That said, I think we are actually going to be facing some combination of Scenarios 1 and 2A – which is causing my itchy “Buy” trigger finger to hesitate a bit. While I believe that a Fed pivot will occur, I do not think it will happen simply because CPI is trending lower. Sir Powell has proclaimed that, rather relying on CPI as his measure of inflation, he focuses on the interplay between wage growth (US hourly earnings) and core personal consumption expenditure (Core PCE). As an aside, I don’t think that either the CPI or Core CPE is a good measure for inflation. Core PCE is particularly disingenuous because it excludes food and energy. The plebes don’t riot when the hedonically-adjusted prices of flat screen TVs rise – they riot when the price of bread jumps 100%. But regardless of what I think, all that matters for our forecasting exercise is that Sir Powell has telegraphed that he intends to base any decisions regarding a potential policy pivot on not just the CPI, but US wage growth vs. Core PCE. to a speech in November of 2022 where Powell discusses wage growth. Link US Hourly Earnings % Change MINUS Core PCE % Change, Both YoY As you can see from the above chart, wages in the US are on average rising at the same pace as inflation (as defined by Powell and the CPE). That means that, while goods are getting more expensive, people’s ability to buy those goods is actually increasing at a similar rate due to their increased wages. And as a result, there is a risk that people’s enhanced purchasing power could fuel further goods inflation. Put another way, goods producers may realize that their buyers are making more money now then they did previously, and raise their prices even further to capture more of their buyers’ recent wage gains – all without having to worry about killing demand for their products. So, Sir Powell actually has some justification to keep moving rates higher (i.e., to curb consumer demand and stop further goods inflation). And he’ll likely use it, because he has indicated that he is on a quest to ensure the entire US Treasury Curve yields greater than inflation (which it currently does not). US Treasury Actives Curve December 2022 Core PCE clocked in at 4.7% YoY. Looking at the above curve, only 6-month T-bills are currently yielding greater than 4.7%. So, Sir Powell has mucho wiggle room to continue raising rates – and more importantly, continue reducing the Fed balance sheet – to further tighten monetary conditions to where he’d like them to be. The point of these last few charts and bits of rhetoric is to simply show that the falling CPI number is meaningless, because it doesn’t align with the actual metrics we know Sir Powell is using to judge whether the Fed has succeeded in killing inflation. The fall in the CPI might point to something, but I don’t think it moves the needle in any meaningful way in terms of predicting the timing of the eventual Fed pivot. That said, I do believe that if Powell ignores the CPI figure and continues shrinking the Fed balance sheet via QT, it will lead to a credit market disruption event so significant that it will create an “oh shit!” moment for the Fed and force them to aggressively reverse course. Since reaching a high of $8.965 trillion on 13 April 2022, the Fed’s balance sheet has declined by $458 billion as of 4 January 2023. The Fed should have reduced the balance sheet by a total of $523 billion in 2022, so they have hit 88% of their goal. The current rate of QT suggests that the balance sheet is on pace to decline by another $100 billion each month, or another $1.2 trillion for FY 2023. If a removal of half a trillion dollars in 2022 created the worst bond and stock performance in a few hundred years, imagine what will happen if double that amount is removed in 2023. The reaction of the markets when money is injected vs. withdrawn is not symmetrical – and as such, I expect that the law of unintended consequences will bite the Fed in the ass as it continues to withdraw liquidity. I also believe Sir Powell instinctively understands this, because as aggressive as his QT is, it would take many years at this pace to fully reverse the amount of money printed following the start of the COVID pandemic. From mid-March 2020 to mid-April 2022, the Fed printed $4.653 trillion. At a reduction of $100 billion per month, it would take roughly 4 years to completely return to the Fed balance sheet levels pre-pandemic. If the Fed were being super-duper serious about reversing monetary growth, it would outright sell MBS and Treasuries rather than just ceasing to reinvest maturing bonds. Powell could go faster but hasn’t, which indicates that he knows that the market wouldn’t be able to handle the Fed dumping its assets. But, I still think he’s overestimating the market’s ability to handle the Fed remaining a passive participant. The MBS and Treasury market needs the Fed liquidity, and those markets – and all the other fixed-income markets that derive valuation and pricing off of these benchmarks – are in for a world of pain very soon if QT keeps chugging along at the same clip. Fed Pivot Scenario Analysis In my view, there are two things that could drive the Fed to pivot: Powell reads the falling CPI metric as confirmation that the Fed has done enough and can pause rate hikes sometime soon, and possibly stop QT and cut rates if a mild recession appears in 2H23. Monetary policy typically operates with a 12-to-24-month lag, and therefore Powell – seeing that CPI is trending lower – can be confident inflation will continue to head back to the holy grail of 2% in the near future based on what happened over the past year. As I outlined above, I think this scenario is unlikely, given that I don’t think Powell is using the CPI as his measure of inflation – but it’s not out of the question. Some part of the US credit market breaks, which leads to a financial meltdown across a broad swath of financial assets. In a response similar to the action it took in March 2020, the Fed calls an emergency press conference and stops QT, cuts rates significantly and recommences Quantitative Easing (QE) by purchasing bonds once more. In Scenario 1, I expect that risky asset prices would meander gently upwards. We wouldn’t revisit the lows of 2022, and it would be a pleasant environment for money managers. Just sit back and watch the base effects of CPI kick in and mechanically reduce the headline number. The American economy would find itself in a so-so position, but nothing drastically bad would happen. Even if there was a slight recession, it would be nothing like what we saw from March to April 2020 or during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Of the two scenarios, this is the preferred one because it means you can start buying now in advance of a goldilocks outcome. In Scenario 2, risky asset prices crater. Bonds, equities, and every crypto under the sun all get smoked as the glue that holds together the global USD-based financial system dissolves. Imagine the US 10-year treasury yield quickly doubling from 3.5% to 7%, the S&P 500 punching below 3,000, the Nasdaq 100 breaking below 8,000, and Bitcoin trading with a 15k handle or lower. Like a deer caught in the headlights, I expect that Sir Powell would mount his horse and lead the money-printing cavalry to the rescue. This scenario is less ideal because it would mean that everyone who is buying risky assets now would be in store for massive drawdowns in performance. 2023 could be just as bad as 2022 until the Fed pivots. My base case is Scenario 2. All That Glitters Gold (yellow), Bitcoin (green), USD Liquidity Index (white), Indexed at 100 The most logical counterargument to my Scenario 2 base case is that gold has also rallied alongside Bitcoin. Gold is a more liquid and trusted antifragile asset, and it serves a similar purpose – i.e., it is also a hedge against the fiat monetary system. Therefore, at first glance, you might reasonably speculate that gold’s recent pump is further evidence of the market’s belief that the Fed will pivot in the near future. It’s a fair deduction, but I suspect that gold is rallying for a different reason altogether – and it is therefore important not to conflate gold and Bitcoin rallying together as co-confirmation of an impending Fed pivot. Let me explain. Gold is the money of the sovereign, as at the end of the day, nation states can always settle trade in goods and energy using gold. That is why every single central bank has some amount of gold on its balance sheet. And because every single central bank holds some amount of gold, when a national currency must be devalued to remain competitive globally, central banks always resort to devaluing against gold (either explicitly or implicitly). As a recent example, the US devalued the USD vs. gold in 1933 and 1971. This is why I have a large allocation of physical gold and gold miners in my portfolio. (If you own paper dog shit like gold ETFs, good luck – the only thing those are good for is wiping your ass.) It’s always better to invest alongside the central bank than against it. I (and many others) have written extensively about how the de-dollarization of the world will accelerate in the coming years following a few key recent geopolitical events, such as the U.S.'s freezing of the “assets” that Russia held in the Western financial system. Sooner or later, I expect the producers of cheap human labor and natural resources of the world will realize that it doesn’t make sense to store their wealth in US Treasury bonds when they could possibly face the same fate Russia did if they piss off the patricians in Pax Americana. That leaves gold as the most obvious and attractive place to park their capital. The data supports the idea that governments are shifting towards storing wealth in the time-honored reserve currency of the sovereign, gold. The below chart goes back a decade and depicts net central bank purchases of gold. As you can see, we hit an all-time high in Q3 2022. Central Bank Net Purchases of Gold in Metric Tonnes Peak cheap energy is upon us, and the heads of many nation states recognise this. They instinctively know, as most humans do, that gold keeps purchasing power in energy terms (crude oil) better than fugazi fiat currencies like the USD. This excellent chart from plainly shows that gold is a better store of energy than US Treasuries. Gavekal Research These data points suggest to me that gold is rising more because of real physical demand than because the world’s central banks think a Fed pivot is upon us. Of course, at least some part of the move is due to expectations that the Fed’s monetary policy may loosen in the near future, but I do not believe those expectations are the driving force behind it. Trade Setup What if I’m wrong, and the goldilocks Scenario 1 comes to pass? That means I have already missed the move off of the bottom, and Bitcoin is unlikely to look back as it marches inexorably towards a new all-time high. If that is true, the move will probably come in two stages. In the first stage, savvy speculators will frontrun the actual shift in Fed policy. Bitcoin could easily trade to $30,000 to $40,000 during this stage, as the price is currently massively depressed by bearish post-FTX sentiment. The next stage would take us to $69,000 and beyond but could only commence once a significant amount of USD has been injected into the crypto capital markets. Such an injection would require – at a minimum – that both rate hikes and QT be paused. If I’m wrong, I am content to miss out on the initial rally off of the bottom. I’m already long, so I would benefit regardless. But, my USD held in short-term T-bills would suddenly be underperforming, and I would need to redeploy that capital to Bitcoin in order to maximise the return on my invested money. Before I ditched a bond I bought at 5% yield, though, I would want to be highly confident that the bull market is back. 5% is obviously below inflation, but it’s a better alternative than being down 20% because I mistimed the market and purchased risky assets too early in the next cycle. When they do decide to pivot, the Fed will clearly communicate their move away from tight monetary policy ahead of time. The Fed told us in late 2021 they would switch to fighting inflation by restricting the money supply and raising rates. They followed through and started doing so in March 2022, and anyone who didn’t believe them got slaughtered. As such, the same thing is likely to happen in the other direction – i.e., the Fed will tell us when it's over, and if you don’t believe them, you will miss out on the monster ensuing rally. Since the Fed hasn’t signaled a pivot yet, I can afford to wait. I’m about capital preservation first and growth second. I would rather buy into a market already up 100%+ off the lows the Fed communicates a pivot, than buy into a market up 100% off the lows in which the pivot doesn’t occur, and then suffer a 50%+ correction due to poor macro fundamentals. after If I’m right and the disastrous Scenario 2 occurs (i.e., a global financial meltdown), then I get another bite at the apple. I will know that the market has probably bottomed, because the crash that happens when the system temporarily breaks will either hold the previous $15,800 lows, or it won’t. It doesn’t really matter what level is ultimately reached on the down draft because I know the Fed will subsequently move to print money and avert another financial collapse, which will in turn mark the local bottom of all risky assets. And then I get another setup similar to March 2020, which requires me to back up the truck and purchase crypto with two hands and a shovel.

Bouncy Castle

Castillo inflable

Château gonflable

उछालदार झूला

弾む城

Castelo inflável

Lâu đài bouncy

充气城堡

is a sandbox world-building game, where players build and customize castles on sky islands. The game has a Minecraft-like style to it with a mix of The Sandbox and World of Warcraft (when it comes to the design of the castles and portals). Infinity Skies There's also an adventure mode with dungeon crawling that is being developed to go alongside the world-building. Let's dive into Infinity Skies and how the game works. Gameplay Gameplay in Infinity Skies revolves around players building out castles and islands, collecting in-game items along the way. The game's main aim is to become a King or Queen by having the most luxurious castle. Other players rank castles, so reaching the King or Queen rank depends on a player customizing their castle and impressing other players in the game. Every castle is situated on a sky-based island that the player owns, with each player competing to create the best sky castle. These islands are known as "sky plots," There are many sky islands of varying rarities for players to own. Castles can be set to private or public by the player. Public castles are accessible by all players via the world map, while private castles are invite-only and appear locked. Doors within player castles can be locked, too, preventing other players from accessing certain rooms unless they have a password (a VIP room, for example). The game world has a map of four ring-worlds containing sky-plots. Each ring of sky-plots has a different rarity level: Astral (Blue) - The innermost ring-world with 250 sky plots, the rarest tier of sky plots. Divine (Gold) - The second-rarest tier with 1,000 sky plots. Legendary (Orange) - The third-rarest tier with 10,000 sky plots. Epic (Purple) - The fourth-rarest tier with 45,000 sky plots and the outer-most ring of sky-based islands. Each sky plot is an NFT found on the map via coordinates, making it easier for other players to identify and visit your owned lands. The rarest sky plots are found on the innermost rings, and since there are fewer of them, they're much more easily found by other players. Islands are grid-based and come in different styles, for example, snow islands or islands with lakes, etc. Player islands can be traded, and new players start off with a free island that is not an NFT. In-game items exist as NFTs that players can collect and use to decorate their castles. These objects include chairs, tables, armor stands, fireplaces, etc. They can be placed anywhere on the island, come in different rarities, and are tradable with other players. New players start off with Non-NFT objects such as furniture that cannot be traded. Certain NFT objects can also trigger minigames, including chess, air hockey, and pong. Social Elements The game has a social element to it, with players being able to visit each other's castles and reward their favorite castles with points. These points are tracked via a leaderboard that shows a player's ranking within the game, with the top three players being crowned as Kings or Queens at the end of the month. Every player island needs a portal to let other players visit their islands and check out their castles. Interacting with a portal brings up the world map, showcasing the other sky islands owned by players. Players can visit another player's sky island by clicking on the castle on the map. An advanced search option also lets players filter player islands alphabetically by rank, NFT value, guild size, and more. In order to vote on another player's castle, a player needs to reach a certain rank. Once this rank has been reached, every time a player leaves another player's castle, they will be given the option to vote on that castle and give it a prestige point. However, players have no obligation to rank castles they have visited. Players can also engage in feasts which are NFTs that can be burned to give a status effect on the player's home. Only public sky islands can burn feast NFTs. Burning a feast NFT puts the player's sky island into a "feast" state, which other players on the world map can see. Feasts last for an hour, and visiting players are rewarded with bronze fragments if they participate by completing certain interactions. Feast interactions include eating from the main feast meal (a boar), dancing with other players, playing minigames, and more. Adventure Mode The game also features an adventure mode where players can embark on quests and trawl through dungeons, taking on enemies and bosses. This game mode is still in development, and the gameplay will take on a rogue-like style. The adventure mode is named "Immemorial Chronicles" and is broken down into seasonal chapters. Missions will include multiple, randomly-generated stages where players have to loot, explore, fight to end, defeat the boss, and escape. Players' buffs and curses will affect a player's stats, with some of these occurring at the start of the mission, with the rest being accessed through shrines. Combat will be controlled via mouse and keyboard, with the mouse controlling movement and the keyboard controlling player actions, powers, and abilities. Contrary to many rogue-like dungeon crawlers, combat will be real-time instead of turn-based. Conclusion Infinity Skies is a sandbox game where players compete with each other to build the best castle. Holding feasts, collecting rare items, and building out the most beautiful homes will help players to earn prestige points and become King or Queen for the next month. Adventuring is another aspect of the game that is still in development, adding a dungeon crawling and looting layer to the gameplay.

A Look at Infinity Skies: A Sandbox Sky Castle Building Game

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