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How I Saw the Crypto Market Crash Coming Five Hours Early and Got My People Out Before It Was Too…

I was wrong. 18 months ago, I launched @storyarb to be the best content agency for founders & executives. My vision was a $10,000,000/year ghostwriting business. SPOILER: we pivoted. But the future has never looked brighter. Today, storyarb is a B2B company's outsourced Head of Content Marketing. We help our partners create high-quality, niche content for their ICP, while driving scalable demand & pipeline. Keep reading (below) for the full story... I launched storyarb to be the best content agency for founders & executives. I saw the acceleration of short-form video agencies (viralcuts, clipt, shortzy), but felt like there were no businesses supporting execs on text-based social (twitter & linkedin). From my own experience (and that of other founder friends), I knew that Twitter/Linkedin could be a magnet of opportunity. From my own experience (and that of other founder friends), I knew that Twitter/Linkedin could be a magnet of opportunity. It’s how I’ve met amazing entrepreneurs like @RomeenSheth , @jspujji , @alexisohanian.
It’s how I’ve gotten 8-figures worth of advertisers at @MorningBrew.
And it’s how I’ve worked through business ideas, company challenges, & thoughts on where the world is going. At the same time, I knew most founders didn’t have the chops or the time to create great content, solo on social. Which led to a literal shower thought. What if I pair founders with world-class strategists & copywriters. A strategist would pull unique insights from the founder & help set their social strategy. A copywriter would translate ideas into sharp content. Seems logical, right? Personal brand is a nice-to-have, not a need-to-have for founders. The result was 5-6 months of smooth sailing with a client followed by the gutpunch… “Can we catch up?” Churn for exec social became unpalatable. It was driven by: Founders becoming impatient & expecting results sooner.
Founders being pulled in 50 directions & lacking time for social content.
Founders feeling like their internet voice was slightly different from their real life voice. My cofounder, @AbbyMurray, and I knew that we had to get off the hamster wheel if we wanted to build a $10m biz. So we did two things: First, we asked ourselves: “What unfair advantages do we have as a business today?” “The best writers & strategists on the internet, period. We have better ideas & execution.” Second, we listened to our customers (and honestly, no one else). We reflected on past convos: A B2B HR Tech co asked if we could write their newsletter
An e-comm SaaS founder asked for help with e-books
A CMO wanted a company social revival We also interviewed the shit out of our customers. We asked them if they had any other content needs. We asked their marketing teams about their biggest current challenges. We asked “if you had access to world-class writers/content minds, how would you use them?” The answer (and our pivot) became clear. Founders kinda need content help. B2B companies reallyyyy need content help. Marketing teams are scrambling to stand out & grow their business today. Marketing costs are rising (adios cookies, bye zero interest rates, hello increased competition)
Product differentiation is narrowing (software + AI begets more software + AI)
Attribution has become religion, which forces marketers into a box of undifferentiated content
Most brands are living in a sea of sameness (groupthink + AI tooling)
Headcount is recalibrating (we no longer live in pre-COVID La La Land) Which means every marketer & every company is looking to stand out creatively & acquire customers cheaply & scalably. High-quality, high-value content that drives demand is one of the answers. But marketing orgs aren’t equipped to build & execute stand-out content strategies for 5 main reasons: They don’t know how to hire great content talent (copywriters, video creators, producers, strategists), because they’ve never had to do so.
They have marketers doing a lot of the content work, but are starting to realize it’s a completely different skill from most marketing responsibilities.
They have 1-2 team members creating content, but it feels flat & they have no idea what the hell to do now.
They do a poor job of tracking performance & connecting content to pipeline.
Content isn’t centralized...so it’s good in some places, fine in others, and f*cking atrocious elsewhere. Today, storyarb is your outsourced Head of Content Marketing, helping to resuscitate your company’s lifeless content (no matter which situation you’re in). It starts with us understanding the state of your content today. This includes a literal content colonoscopy up & down the org: Newsletters
Email marketing
Company social
Founder social
Ad creative
Website copy
Blog posts
Lead magnets
SOPs/technical docs
[FILL IN THE BLANK] Next, our strategists & writers work in lockstep to UNF*CK YOUR CONTENT by answering one crucial question: “What strategy (read: channels & ideas) will allow us to drive scalable customer demand without sacrificing the quality of our content?” That was the pivot. And it’s working in a big way. Series C tech startups to publicly traded multinationals trust us to be their Head of Content Marketing & we’re driving pipeline with high-quality, niche content built for our customers’ ICP. A few final notes as I reflect on the experience & journey building @storyarb alongside Abby over the last year. Pivots are basically inevitable. The odds that your day 1 product is your day 365 product is close to zero. It’s impossible to make perfect assumptions pre-launch & what’s most important is how you sift through info from your customers & make intuitive & informed decisions thereafter.


There is a business to build around founder social, it’s just not a recurring revenue agency. If I was to build a founder/exec social-only business again, it’d be a combo of courses (organized by platform & expertise), corporate workshops & paid community (accountability/engagement groups).


Building a great business is far more important than being right. As a first-time founder, you want to stay the course & protect your ego. As a second-time founder, you want to make adjustments & build a strong, dependable business.


Great talent creates great competencies. Great competencies create options. The only reason we’ve been able to evolve storyarb & crush it for our current clients is because the business was built on a foundation of exceptional talent. I hope this post made pivoting feel a little less like a failure to you. And if you’re a marketer, I hope this post made you feel like you don’t have to settle for mediocre content, while growing your business. I was wrong. 18 months ago, I launched @storyarb to be the best content agency for founders & executives. My vision was a $10,000,000/year ghostwriting business. @storyarb SPOILER: we pivoted. But the future has never looked brighter. Today, storyarb is a B2B company's outsourced Head of Content Marketing. We help our partners create high-quality, niche content for their ICP, while driving scalable demand & pipeline. Keep reading (below) for the full story... I launched storyarb to be the best content agency for founders & executives. I saw the acceleration of short-form video agencies (viralcuts, clipt, shortzy), but felt like there were no businesses supporting execs on text-based social (twitter & linkedin). From my own experience (and that of other founder friends), I knew that Twitter/Linkedin could be a magnet of opportunity. From my own experience (and that of other founder friends), I knew that Twitter/Linkedin could be a magnet of opportunity. It’s how I’ve met amazing entrepreneurs like @RomeenSheth , @jspujji , @alexisohanian. It’s how I’ve gotten 8-figures worth of advertisers at @MorningBrew. And it’s how I’ve worked through business ideas, company challenges, & thoughts on where the world is going. It’s how I’ve met amazing entrepreneurs like @RomeenSheth , @jspujji , @alexisohanian . @RomeenSheth @jspujji @alexisohanian It’s how I’ve gotten 8-figures worth of advertisers at @MorningBrew . @MorningBrew And it’s how I’ve worked through business ideas, company challenges, & thoughts on where the world is going. At the same time, I knew most founders didn’t have the chops or the time to create great content, solo on social. Which led to a literal shower thought. What if I pair founders with world-class strategists & copywriters. A strategist would pull unique insights from the founder & help set their social strategy. A copywriter would translate ideas into sharp content. Seems logical, right? Personal brand is a nice-to-have, not a need-to-have for founders. The result was 5-6 months of smooth sailing with a client followed by the gutpunch… “Can we catch up?” “Can we catch up?” Churn for exec social became unpalatable. It was driven by: Founders becoming impatient & expecting results sooner. Founders being pulled in 50 directions & lacking time for social content. Founders feeling like their internet voice was slightly different from their real life voice. Founders becoming impatient & expecting results sooner. Founders being pulled in 50 directions & lacking time for social content. Founders feeling like their internet voice was slightly different from their real life voice. My cofounder, @AbbyMurray , and I knew that we had to get off the hamster wheel if we wanted to build a $10m biz. So we did two things: @AbbyMurray First, we asked ourselves: “What unfair advantages do we have as a business today?” “The best writers & strategists on the internet, period. We have better ideas & execution.” Second, we listened to our customers (and honestly, no one else). We reflected on past convos: A B2B HR Tech co asked if we could write their newsletter An e-comm SaaS founder asked for help with e-books A CMO wanted a company social revival A B2B HR Tech co asked if we could write their newsletter An e-comm SaaS founder asked for help with e-books A CMO wanted a company social revival We also interviewed the shit out of our customers. We asked them if they had any other content needs. We asked their marketing teams about their biggest current challenges. We asked “if you had access to world-class writers/content minds, how would you use them?” The answer (and our pivot) became clear. Founders kinda need content help. B2B companies reallyyyy need content help. Marketing teams are scrambling to stand out & grow their business today. Marketing costs are rising (adios cookies, bye zero interest rates, hello increased competition) Product differentiation is narrowing (software + AI begets more software + AI) Attribution has become religion, which forces marketers into a box of undifferentiated content Most brands are living in a sea of sameness (groupthink + AI tooling) Headcount is recalibrating (we no longer live in pre-COVID La La Land) Marketing costs are rising (adios cookies, bye zero interest rates, hello increased competition) Product differentiation is narrowing (software + AI begets more software + AI) Attribution has become religion, which forces marketers into a box of undifferentiated content Most brands are living in a sea of sameness (groupthink + AI tooling) Headcount is recalibrating (we no longer live in pre-COVID La La Land) Which means every marketer & every company is looking to stand out creatively & acquire customers cheaply & scalably. High-quality, high-value content that drives demand is one of the answers. But marketing orgs aren’t equipped to build & execute stand-out content strategies for 5 main reasons: They don’t know how to hire great content talent (copywriters, video creators, producers, strategists), because they’ve never had to do so. They have marketers doing a lot of the content work, but are starting to realize it’s a completely different skill from most marketing responsibilities. They have 1-2 team members creating content, but it feels flat & they have no idea what the hell to do now. They do a poor job of tracking performance & connecting content to pipeline. Content isn’t centralized...so it’s good in some places, fine in others, and f*cking atrocious elsewhere. They don’t know how to hire great content talent (copywriters, video creators, producers, strategists), because they’ve never had to do so. They have marketers doing a lot of the content work, but are starting to realize it’s a completely different skill from most marketing responsibilities. They have 1-2 team members creating content, but it feels flat & they have no idea what the hell to do now. They do a poor job of tracking performance & connecting content to pipeline. Content isn’t centralized...so it’s good in some places, fine in others, and f*cking atrocious elsewhere. Today, storyarb is your outsourced Head of Content Marketing, helping to resuscitate your company’s lifeless content (no matter which situation you’re in). It starts with us understanding the state of your content today. This includes a literal content colonoscopy up & down the org: Newsletters Email marketing Company social Founder social Ad creative Website copy Blog posts Lead magnets SOPs/technical docs [FILL IN THE BLANK] Newsletters Email marketing Company social Founder social Ad creative Website copy Blog posts Lead magnets SOPs/technical docs [FILL IN THE BLANK] Next, our strategists & writers work in lockstep to UNF*CK YOUR CONTENT by answering one crucial question: “What strategy (read: channels & ideas) will allow us to drive scalable customer demand without sacrificing the quality of our content?” “What strategy (read: channels & ideas) will allow us to drive scalable customer demand without sacrificing the quality of our content?” That was the pivot. And it’s working in a big way. Series C tech startups to publicly traded multinationals trust us to be their Head of Content Marketing & we’re driving pipeline with high-quality, niche content built for our customers’ ICP. A few final notes as I reflect on the experience & journey building @storyarb alongside Abby over the last year. @storyarb Pivots are basically inevitable. The odds that your day 1 product is your day 365 product is close to zero. It’s impossible to make perfect assumptions pre-launch & what’s most important is how you sift through info from your customers & make intuitive & informed decisions thereafter. There is a business to build around founder social, it’s just not a recurring revenue agency. If I was to build a founder/exec social-only business again, it’d be a combo of courses (organized by platform & expertise), corporate workshops & paid community (accountability/engagement groups). Building a great business is far more important than being right. As a first-time founder, you want to stay the course & protect your ego. As a second-time founder, you want to make adjustments & build a strong, dependable business. Great talent creates great competencies. Great competencies create options. The only reason we’ve been able to evolve storyarb & crush it for our current clients is because the business was built on a foundation of exceptional talent. Pivots are basically inevitable. The odds that your day 1 product is your day 365 product is close to zero. It’s impossible to make perfect assumptions pre-launch & what’s most important is how you sift through info from your customers & make intuitive & informed decisions thereafter. Pivots are basically inevitable. The odds that your day 1 product is your day 365 product is close to zero. It’s impossible to make perfect assumptions pre-launch & what’s most important is how you sift through info from your customers & make intuitive & informed decisions thereafter. There is a business to build around founder social, it’s just not a recurring revenue agency. If I was to build a founder/exec social-only business again, it’d be a combo of courses (organized by platform & expertise), corporate workshops & paid community (accountability/engagement groups). There is a business to build around founder social, it’s just not a recurring revenue agency. If I was to build a founder/exec social-only business again, it’d be a combo of courses (organized by platform & expertise), corporate workshops & paid community (accountability/engagement groups). Building a great business is far more important than being right. As a first-time founder, you want to stay the course & protect your ego. As a second-time founder, you want to make adjustments & build a strong, dependable business. Building a great business is far more important than being right. As a first-time founder, you want to stay the course & protect your ego. As a second-time founder, you want to make adjustments & build a strong, dependable business. Great talent creates great competencies. Great competencies create options. The only reason we’ve been able to evolve storyarb & crush it for our current clients is because the business was built on a foundation of exceptional talent. Great talent creates great competencies. Great competencies create options. The only reason we’ve been able to evolve storyarb & crush it for our current clients is because the business was built on a foundation of exceptional talent. I hope this post made pivoting feel a little less like a failure to you. And if you’re a marketer, I hope this post made you feel like you don’t have to settle for mediocre content, while growing your business.

Why storyarb Pivoted From Ghostwriting for Founders to Producing Niche Content for Customers’ ICP

Proč storyarb přešel od Ghostwritingu pro zakladatele k vytváření specializovaného obsahu pro ICP zákazníků

Por qué Storyarb pasó de ser redactora fantasma para fundadores a producir contenido de nicho para el ICP de los clientes

Miksi storyarb siirtyi haamukirjoituksesta perustajille niche-sisällön tuottamiseen asiakkaiden ICP:lle

Mengapa storyarb Beralih Dari Ghostwriting untuk Pendiri ke Produksi Konten Niche untuk Pelanggan

storyarb が創業者向けのゴーストライター業務から顧客の ICP 向けニッチ コンテンツの制作に方向転換した理由

Storyarb가 창업자를 위한 고스트라이터에서 고객의 ICP를 위한 틈새 콘텐츠 제작으로 전환한 이유

Mpo na nini storyarb Pivoted De Ghostwriting mpo na ba Fondateurs mpo na kobimisa Niche Content mpo na Clients’ ICP

Nahoana ny storyarb no nivadika avy amin'ny Ghostwriting ho an'ny mpanorina mba hamokarana votoaty manokana ho an'ny ICP mpanjifa

Зошто storyarb се сврти од Ghostwriting за основачи до производство на ниша содржина за ICP на клиентите

किन स्टोरीआर्ब संस्थापकहरूको लागि भूतलेखनबाट ग्राहकहरूको आईसीपीको लागि आला सामग्री उत्पादन गर्न पिभोट गरियो

Чаро storyarb аз Ghostwriting барои муассисон ба истеҳсоли мундариҷаи нишеӣ барои ICP муштариён табдил ёфт

Чому storyarb перейшов від Ghostwriting для засновників до створення нішевого контенту для ICP клієнтів

How I Created a Social Recommendation Network in Brazil

Why Everyone is Wrong About the Future of Work™

কেন সবাই কাজের ভবিষ্যত সম্পর্কে ভুল ™

Warum alle falsch liegen, wenn sie über die Zukunft der Arbeit sprechen™

Por qué todo el mundo está equivocado sobre el futuro del trabajo™

Pourquoi tout le monde se trompe sur l’avenir du travail™

काम के भविष्य के बारे में हर कोई गलत क्यों है™

誰もが仕事の未来について間違っている理由™

왜 모든 사람이 미래의 일에 대해 틀렸는가?™

Por que todos estão errados sobre o futuro do trabalho™

Почему все ошибаются относительно будущего работы™

Neden Herkes Çalışmanın Geleceği Hakkında Yanılıyor?™

Tại sao mọi người đều sai về tương lai của công việc™

为什么每个人对工作的未来都有误解™

I think OpenAI is not being honest about the diminishing returns of scaling AI with data and compute alone. I think they are also putting a lot of the economy, the world and this entire industry in jeopardy by not talking more openly about the topic. At first, I believed what they told us, that all you need to do is add more compute power and more data, and LLMs as well as other models will simply get better. That this relationship between the models, their compute and data could grow linearly until the end of time. The leap from GPT-3 and GPT-3.5 was immense. The leap from GPT-3.5 to GPT-4 seemed like clear evidence that this presumption was correct. But then things got weird. Instead of releasing a model called GPT-5 or even GPT-4.5, they released GPT-4-turbo. GPT-4-turbo is not as intelligent as GPT-4 but it is much faster and it's cheaper. That all makes sense. But then, this trend kept going. After GPT-4-turbo, OpenAI's next release was GPT-4o. GPt-4o is more or less just as intelligent as GPT-4-turbo, but it is even faster and even cheaper. The functionality that really sold us, however, was its ability to talk and understand things via audio and its speed. However, take note, at this point in our story, GPT-4-turbo is not more intelligent than GPT-4 and GPT-4o is not more intelligent than GPT-4-turbo. And none of them are more intelligent than GPT-4. Their next and most recent release was GPT-o1. GPT-o1 can perform better than GPT-4 onsome tasks. But that's because o1 is not really a single model. GPT-o1 is actually a black box of multiple lightweight LLM models working together. Perhaps o1 is even better described as software or middleware than it is an actual model. You give it a question, it comes up with an answer, and then it repeatedly uses other models tasked with checking the answer to make sure it’s right, and it disguises all of these operations. It does all of this very, very quickly. Why not just make an LLM that's more powerful than GPT-4? Why resort to such cloak-and-dagger techniques to achieve new releases? GPT-4 came out 2 years ago, we should be well beyond its capabilities by now. Well, Noam Brown, a researcher at OpenAI had something to say on why they went this route with o1 at TED AI. He said “It turned out that having a bot think for just 20 seconds in a hand of poker got the same boosting performance as scaling up the model by 100,000x and training it for 100,000 times longer,” Now stop and really think about what is being said there. A bot thinking for 20 seconds is as good as a bot trained 100,000 times longer with 100,000 times more computing power.  If the scaling laws are infinite, that math is impossible. Something is either wrong here or someone is lying. Why does all of this matter? OpenAI is worth 150 billion dollars and the majority of that market cap is based on projections that depend on the improvement of models over time. If AI is only as good as it is today, that’s still an interesting future, but that’s not what’s being sold to investors by AI companies whose entire IP is their model. That also changes the product roadmap of many other companies that depend on the continued advancement of their LLMs to build their own products. OpenAI’s goal and ambitions of AGI are severely delayed if this is all true. A Hypothesis The reason LLMs are so amazing is because of a higher level philosophical phenomenon that we never considered, that language inherently possesses an extremely large amount of context and data about the world within even small sections of text. Unlike pixels in a picture or video, words in a sentence implicitly describe one another. A completely cohesive sentence is by definition, “rational”. Whether or not it’s true is a very different story and a problem that transcends language alone. No matter how much text you consume, “truth” and “falsehoods” are not simply linguistic concepts. You can say something is completely rational but in no way “true”. It is at this point LLMs will consistently hit a brick wall. Over the last 12 months, I’d like to formally speculate that behind closed doors there have been no huge leaps in LLMs at OpenAI, GrokAI, or at Google. To be specific I don’t think anyone, anywhere has made any LLM that is even 1.5X better than GPT-4. At OpenAI it seems that high-level staff are quitting. Right now they’re saying it’s because of safety but I’m going to put my tinfoil hat on now and throw an idea out there. They are aware of this issue and they’re jumping ship before it’s too late. Confirmation I started discussing this concern with friends 3 months ago. I was called many names haha. But in the last 3 weeks, a lot of the press has begun to smell something fishy: OpenAI is no longer releasing Orion (GPT-5) because it did not meet expected performance benchmarks and it is seeing diminishing returns. (https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-shifts-strategy-as-rate-of-gpt-ai-improvements-slows)


Bloomberg reports that OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are all having struggles making more advanced AI. (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/openai-google-and-anthropic-are-struggling-to-build-more-advanced-ai) What can we do about it? It’s hard to recommend a single solution. The tech behind o1 is proof that even low-performance models can be repurposed to do complicated operations. But that is not a solution to the problem of AI scaling. I think there needs to be substantial investment and rapid testing of new model architectures. We also have run out of data and need new ways of extrapolating usable data for LLMs to be trained on. Perhaps using multidimensional labeling that helps guide its references for truthful information directly. Another good idea could be to simply continue fine-tuning LLMs for specific use cases like math, science, and healthcare running and using AI agent workflows, similar to o1. It might give a lot of companies wiggle room until a new architecture arises. This problem is really bad but I think that the creativity in machine learning and software development it will inspire will be immense. Once we get over this hurdle, we’ll certainly be well on schedule for AGI and perhaps ASI. I think OpenAI is not being honest about the diminishing returns of scaling AI with data and compute alone. I think they are also putting a lot of the economy, the world and this entire industry in jeopardy by not talking more openly about the topic. At first, I believed what they told us, that all you need to do is add more compute power and more data, and LLMs as well as other models will simply get better. That this relationship between the models, their compute and data could grow linearly until the end of time. The leap from GPT-3 and GPT-3.5 was immense. The leap from GPT-3.5 to GPT-4 seemed like clear evidence that this presumption was correct. But then things got weird. Instead of releasing a model called GPT-5 or even GPT-4.5, they released GPT-4-turbo. GPT-4-turbo is not as intelligent as GPT-4 but it is much faster and it's cheaper. That all makes sense. But then, this trend kept going. After GPT-4-turbo, OpenAI's next release was GPT-4o. GPt-4o is more or less just as intelligent as GPT-4-turbo, but it is even faster and even cheaper. The functionality that really sold us, however, was its ability to talk and understand things via audio and its speed. However, take note, at this point in our story, GPT-4-turbo is not more intelligent than GPT-4 and GPT-4o is not more intelligent than GPT-4-turbo. And none of them are more intelligent than GPT-4. Their next and most recent release was GPT-o1. GPT-o1 can perform better than GPT-4 on some tasks. But that's because o1 is not really a single model. GPT-o1 is actually a black box of multiple lightweight LLM models working together. Perhaps o1 is even better described as software or middleware than it is an actual model. You give it a question, it comes up with an answer, and then it repeatedly uses other models tasked with checking the answer to make sure it’s right, and it disguises all of these operations. It does all of this very, very quickly. some Why not just make an LLM that's more powerful than GPT-4? Why resort to such cloak-and-dagger techniques to achieve new releases? GPT-4 came out 2 years ago, we should be well beyond its capabilities by now. Well, Noam Brown, a researcher at OpenAI had something to say on why they went this route with o1 at TED AI. He said “It turned out that having a bot think for just 20 seconds in a hand of poker got the same boosting performance as scaling up the model by 100,000x and training it for 100,000 times longer,” Now stop and really think about what is being said there. A bot thinking for 20 seconds is as good as a bot trained 100,000 times longer with 100,000 times more computing power.  If the scaling laws are infinite, that math is impossible. Something is either wrong here or someone is lying. Why does all of this matter? OpenAI is worth 150 billion dollars and the majority of that market cap is based on projections that depend on the improvement of models over time. If AI is only as good as it is today, that’s still an interesting future, but that’s not what’s being sold to investors by AI companies whose entire IP is their model. That also changes the product roadmap of many other companies that depend on the continued advancement of their LLMs to build their own products. OpenAI’s goal and ambitions of AGI are severely delayed if this is all true. A Hypothesis The reason LLMs are so amazing is because of a higher level philosophical phenomenon that we never considered, that language inherently possesses an extremely large amount of context and data about the world within even small sections of text. Unlike pixels in a picture or video, words in a sentence implicitly describe one another. A completely cohesive sentence is by definition, “rational”. Whether or not it’s true is a very different story and a problem that transcends language alone. No matter how much text you consume, “truth” and “falsehoods” are not simply linguistic concepts. You can say something is completely rational but in no way “true”. It is at this point LLMs will consistently hit a brick wall. Over the last 12 months, I’d like to formally speculate that behind closed doors there have been no huge leaps in LLMs at OpenAI, GrokAI, or at Google. To be specific I don’t think anyone, anywhere has made any LLM that is even 1.5X better than GPT-4. At OpenAI it seems that high-level staff are quitting. Right now they’re saying it’s because of safety but I’m going to put my tinfoil hat on now and throw an idea out there. They are aware of this issue and they’re jumping ship before it’s too late. Confirmation Confirmation I started discussing this concern with friends 3 months ago. I was called many names haha. But in the last 3 weeks, a lot of the press has begun to smell something fishy: OpenAI is no longer releasing Orion (GPT-5) because it did not meet expected performance benchmarks and it is seeing diminishing returns. (https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-shifts-strategy-as-rate-of-gpt-ai-improvements-slows) Bloomberg reports that OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are all having struggles making more advanced AI. (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/openai-google-and-anthropic-are-struggling-to-build-more-advanced-ai) OpenAI is no longer releasing Orion (GPT-5) because it did not meet expected performance benchmarks and it is seeing diminishing returns. (https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-shifts-strategy-as-rate-of-gpt-ai-improvements-slows) OpenAI is no longer releasing Orion (GPT-5) because it did not meet expected performance benchmarks and it is seeing diminishing returns. ( https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-shifts-strategy-as-rate-of-gpt-ai-improvements-slows ) OpenAI is no longer releasing Orion (GPT-5) because it did not meet expected performance benchmarks and it is seeing diminishing returns. https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-shifts-strategy-as-rate-of-gpt-ai-improvements-slows Bloomberg reports that OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are all having struggles making more advanced AI. (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/openai-google-and-anthropic-are-struggling-to-build-more-advanced-ai) Bloomberg reports that OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are all having struggles making more advanced AI. ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/openai-google-and-anthropic-are-struggling-to-build-more-advanced-ai ) Bloomberg reports that OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are all having struggles making more advanced AI. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/openai-google-and-anthropic-are-struggling-to-build-more-advanced-ai What can we do about it? It’s hard to recommend a single solution. The tech behind o1 is proof that even low-performance models can be repurposed to do complicated operations. But that is not a solution to the problem of AI scaling. I think there needs to be substantial investment and rapid testing of new model architectures. We also have run out of data and need new ways of extrapolating usable data for LLMs to be trained on. Perhaps using multidimensional labeling that helps guide its references for truthful information directly. Another good idea could be to simply continue fine-tuning LLMs for specific use cases like math, science, and healthcare running and using AI agent workflows, similar to o1. It might give a lot of companies wiggle room until a new architecture arises. This problem is really bad but I think that the creativity in machine learning and software development it will inspire will be immense. Once we get over this hurdle, we’ll certainly be well on schedule for AGI and perhaps ASI. software development

Is AI Progress Slowing? The Scaling Debate OpenAI Doesn’t Want to Have

¿Se está ralentizando el progreso de la IA? El debate sobre la escalabilidad que OpenAI no quiere tener

האם התקדמות הבינה המלאכותית מואטת? הדיון בקנה מידה ש-OpenAI לא רוצה שיהיה

Apakah Kemajuan AI Melambat? Perdebatan Skala yang Tidak Diinginkan OpenAI

Il progresso dell'intelligenza artificiale sta rallentando? Il dibattito sulla scalabilità che OpenAI non vuole avere

AIの進歩は鈍化しているのか？OpenAIが望まないスケーリングの議論

Bokóli ya AI ezali kokita? Débat ya Échelle OpenAI Elingi Ezala Te

Vertraagt de vooruitgang van AI? Het schaaldebat dat OpenAI niet wil hebben

Spomaľuje sa pokrok AI? Debata o škálovaní OpenAI nechce mať

Saktar AI-utvecklingen ner? Skalningsdebatten som OpenAI inte vill ha

AI ösüşi haýalmy? Giňeldilen jedel OpenAI islemeýär

Чи сповільнюється розвиток ШІ? Дебати щодо масштабування, яких OpenAI не хоче мати

Ingabe Intuthuko ye-AI Iyahamba Kancane? I-Scaling Debate OpenAI Ayifuni Ukuba Nayo

Imagine discovering an investment that goes up 50% on average each year with occasional big drops that you can buy for even further gains. Would you buy it? No. What if that asset went up 10% on average each year? Would you buy it? Yes. Chances are, you already have. I’m talking about Bitcoin. You pay a high price for a cheery consensus That may sound weird. Stupid, even. Who would turn down a 50% opportunity in exchange for a 10% opportunity? The US stock market only gives you 7% annualized. I agree. Yet, that’s what people do when they buy Bitcoin during bull markets like today’s. They don’t buy Bitcoin for $16,000, $32,000, $48,000, or $64,000. Instead, they buy it for $80,000 or more. They heard some people got ridiculously rich with Bitcoin and think they can do it, too. Two years ago, maybe. That was during the depths of a wretched crypto bear market. Now? One Bitcoin is worth more than the average US worker’s annual salary. Bitcoin’s market cap is almost $2 trillion. Most people can’t afford to buy enough Bitcoin to get rich, and those who already have Bitcoin don’t have enough upside to see the massive multiples necessary to retire their bloodlines. A letdown, if you want it to be You won’t find such realistic expectations on social media or the email solicitations you get from other crypto gurus. Some tell you “banana zone will send prices to the moon” and “S2F” predicts a $500,000 bitcoin in 2025. Others admit the chance to get rich with Bitcoin has passed, but tell you you need to buy smaller cryptos with bloated market caps and massive selling from insiders. Nobody will pay $2,500 for a newsletter subscription or spend 50 hours reading investment blogs for a 50% annualized return, even though that beats most traders and every professional fund manager. They’ll gladly pay as much or more for five altcoin picks that will make you $5 million or a secret strategy to make a quick fortune. Only one outcome is realistic, but you pay more for the fantasy. Cryptocurrency is a marathon masquerading as a sprint. They sell you on the sprint, but the real gains come from the marathon. Your best bet This is not what you're supposed to believe. Consensus opinion told you to buy above $50,000 in 2021, sell at $40,000 in 2022, and buy again at $32,000 in 2023. With that approach, a $50,000 investment would have grown to $75,000 by July 2024. That’s a 50% return in three years! Way better than the S&P 500's 16% return over that time. At today’s price of $90,000, you’re at 60% gains. Boom! You still come out way ahead of the S&P 500’s 25% return to date. Feels great, right? Your best financial advisors can barely beat the stock market. You crushed them. You gained 60% in three years! Fun fact: If you had bought Bitcoin blindly, on a fixed schedule, in a fixed amount, regardless of circumstances, you would have bought at an average price of roughly $40,000 for a 123% gain. My plan beat both approaches for a return of 160% over that time. You bought at an average price of roughly $34,000. If you sold when I told you to, you did even better. https://cryptoiseasy.beehiiv.com/p/plan-buying-selling-bitcoin?embedable=true Maybe not rich but pretty, pretty, pretty good While 160% is better than 123%, it's not the huge, life-changing returns you have in your head. You might get that with altcoins, but with 50,000 to choose from, you're going to have to get lucky and get your timing perfect. Mark, past performance doesn’t dictate future results! True, but it’s the only way we can set realistic expectations. Can you get rich with Bitcoin by doubling your money every few years? Yes, if you start with a decent amount of money, stick around for years, buy the big crashes and bear markets, and buy a lot when you buy. In other words, you need time, money, and patience. Most likely, you're getting into crypto now because you want to make money quickly, with as little effort as possible and don't have much capital to invest. No time, money, or patience. The good news? You can beat 50% annualized returns with Bitcoin. How? Wait for better opportunities. Subscribe to my newsletter, Crypto is Easy, so you know when those opportunities come. You'll also get occasional trading opportunities and altcoin reports, as well as access to my plan and everything else you get with your subscription. Timing is everything With Bitcoin, you may not end up with fabulous riches, a garage full of Lambo's, and enough money to build a nuclear bunker, but you'll do better than all of your friends. Wall Street is on board. Trump’s a fan. Bitcoin’s network continues to grow. If you’re patient, you will have tons of upside. It's all about planning properly. That may seem disappointing. It's not what your favorite guru tells you in their email solicitations. But honestly, is it so bad to wait for a happy, easy way to buy into an asset class that has outpaced every other investment of the past 10 years and offers unlimited growth in the future? Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top Bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in his bio and connect with him on Tealfeed. Imagine discovering an investment that goes up 50% on average each year with occasional big drops that you can buy for even further gains. Would you buy it? No. What if that asset went up 10% on average each year? Would you buy it? Yes. Chances are, you already have. I’m talking about Bitcoin. You pay a high price for a cheery consensus That may sound weird. Stupid, even. Who would turn down a 50% opportunity in exchange for a 10% opportunity? The US stock market only gives you 7% annualized. I agree. Yet, that’s what people do when they buy Bitcoin during bull markets like today’s. They don’t buy Bitcoin for $16,000, $32,000, $48,000, or $64,000. Instead, they buy it for $80,000 or more. They heard some people got ridiculously rich with Bitcoin and think they can do it, too. Two years ago, maybe. That was during the depths of a wretched crypto bear market. Now? One Bitcoin is worth more than the average US worker’s annual salary. Bitcoin’s market cap is almost $2 trillion. Most people can’t afford to buy enough Bitcoin to get rich, and those who already have Bitcoin don’t have enough upside to see the massive multiples necessary to retire their bloodlines. A letdown, if you want it to be You won’t find such realistic expectations on social media or the email solicitations you get from other crypto gurus. Some tell you “banana zone will send prices to the moon” and “S2F” predicts a $500,000 bitcoin in 2025. Others admit the chance to get rich with Bitcoin has passed, but tell you you need to buy smaller cryptos with bloated market caps and massive selling from insiders. Nobody will pay $2,500 for a newsletter subscription or spend 50 hours reading investment blogs for a 50% annualized return, even though that beats most traders and every professional fund manager. They’ll gladly pay as much or more for five altcoin picks that will make you $5 million or a secret strategy to make a quick fortune. Only one outcome is realistic, but you pay more for the fantasy. Cryptocurrency is a marathon masquerading as a sprint. They sell you on the sprint, but the real gains come from the marathon. Your best bet This is not what you're supposed to believe. Consensus opinion told you to buy above $50,000 in 2021, sell at $40,000 in 2022, and buy again at $32,000 in 2023. With that approach, a $50,000 investment would have grown to $75,000 by July 2024. That’s a 50% return in three years! Way better than the S&P 500's 16% return over that time. At today’s price of $90,000, you’re at 60% gains. Boom! You still come out way ahead of the S&P 500’s 25% return to date. Feels great, right? Your best financial advisors can barely beat the stock market. You crushed them. You gained 60% in three years! You gained 60% in three years! You gained 60% in three years! Fun fact: If you had bought Bitcoin blindly, on a fixed schedule, in a fixed amount, regardless of circumstances, you would have bought at an average price of roughly $40,000 for a 123% gain . 123% gain My plan beat both approaches for a return of 160% over that time. You bought at an average price of roughly $34,000. If you sold when I told you to, you did even better. My plan My plan a return of 160% https://cryptoiseasy.beehiiv.com/p/plan-buying-selling-bitcoin?embedable=true https://cryptoiseasy.beehiiv.com/p/plan-buying-selling-bitcoin?embedable=true Maybe not rich but pretty, pretty, pretty good While 160% is better than 123%, it's not the huge, life-changing returns you have in your head. You might get that with altcoins, but with 50,000 to choose from, you're going to have to get lucky and get your timing perfect. Mark, past performance doesn’t dictate future results! Mark, past performance doesn’t dictate future results! True, but it’s the only way we can set realistic expectations. Can you get rich with Bitcoin by doubling your money every few years? Yes, if you start with a decent amount of money, stick around for years, buy the big crashes and bear markets, and buy a lot when you buy. In other words, you need time, money, and patience. Most likely, you're getting into crypto now because you want to make money quickly, with as little effort as possible and don't have much capital to invest. No time, money, or patience. The good news? You can beat 50% annualized returns with Bitcoin. How? Wait for better opportunities. Subscribe to my newsletter, Crypto is Easy , so you know when those opportunities come. Crypto is Easy Crypto is Easy Crypto is Easy You'll also get occasional trading opportunities and altcoin reports, as well as access to my plan and everything else you get with your subscription . my plan my plan everything else you get with your subscription Timing is everything With Bitcoin, you may not end up with fabulous riches, a garage full of Lambo's, and enough money to build a nuclear bunker, but you'll do better than all of your friends. Wall Street is on board. Trump’s a fan. Bitcoin’s network continues to grow. If you’re patient, you will have tons of upside. It's all about planning properly. That may seem disappointing. It's not what your favorite guru tells you in their email solicitations. But honestly, is it so bad to wait for a happy, easy way to buy into an asset class that has outpaced every other investment of the past 10 years and offers unlimited growth in the future? Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top Bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon . Learn more about him in his bio and connect with him on Tealfeed . Crypto is Easy Crypto is Easy Crypto is Easy Medium Medium Medium Hacker Noon Hacker Noon Hacker Noon bio bio Tealfeed Tealfeed

Stop Thinking You’ll Get Rich With Bitcoin

আপনি বিটকয়েন দিয়ে ধনী হবেন তা ভাবা বন্ধ করুন

Hören Sie auf zu glauben, dass Sie mit Bitcoin reich werden

Deja de pensar que te harás rico con Bitcoin

Arrêtez de penser que vous deviendrez riche avec Bitcoin

यह सोचना बंद करें कि आप बिटकॉइन से अमीर बन जाएंगे

ビットコインで金持ちになれると考えるのはやめよう

비트코인으로 부자가 될 수 있다고 생각하는 것을 멈추세요

Pare de pensar que você ficará rico com Bitcoin

Перестаньте думать, что вы разбогатеете с помощью биткоинов

Bitcoin ile Zengin Olacağınızı Düşünmeyi Bırakın

Hãy ngừng nghĩ rằng bạn sẽ giàu có với Bitcoin

不要再想着用比特币致富

How to Earn Money Playing Blockchain Games in 2025

How I Created AI Photocraft: An AI SaaS Tool Using Open Source Projects on GitHub

Let's learn about via these 47 free stories. They are ordered by most time reading created on HackerNoon. Visit the to find the most read stories about any technology. Email Marketing Tips /Learn Repo 1. How to Maximize your Cold Email Deliverability You've spent hours crafting the perfect sales email, but if you're not careful, your message could end up in the dreaded "spam" folder. 2. Beginner's Guide to Email Marketing 3. 4 Innovative Email and Instant Messaging Platforms in 2022 We will explore a list of the most efficient platforms for collaboration and communication that may be utilized in today’s hyper-digitalized world. 4. The Importance of Email Service Provider in Email Marketing Using an Email Service Provider allows tracking open, click and bounce rates which helps you to optimize your email marketing campaign. 5. 9 Ways to Reduce Email Bounce Rate More and more  people are starting to look into online businesses to complement their incomes during this period, or to spin-off from their jobs at risk. With this in mind, email marketing is one of the methods with low barriers of entry, just as e-commerce. 6. How To Clean An Email List To Improve  Deliverability A clean email list is important to ensure you are sending emails only to people who are interested. Remove inactive subscribers to improve email deliverability. 7. A Guide to Cold Emailing and Following Up A guide to cold emailing and following up with prospects, complete with templates you can use immediately. 8. Email Design: 12 Best Practices to Increase Click-Through Rates A well-designed design can be a game-changer! 9. 10 Email Marketing Tips to Enhance Your Virtual Event's Attendance In this article, you will learn about 10 email marketing tips and tricks you need to follow to enhance your virtual event's attendance. 10. Squeeze Pages Are The Key To Efficiently Grow Your Email List As a digital marketer, you all hope to see “mail” in your audience inbox. 11. Six New SMTP Services That Are Better Than Sendgrid Emails are a crucial norm of communication between users and your websites. And everyone wants to send and delivered emails correctly to the inbox of its users. 12. 5 Easy Ways to Increase Email Open Rates for More Conversions Convincing your recipients to open your emails can be tough. But it's not impossible. Check out these tips to boost your open rates and increase your conversion 13. 5 Key Benefits of Using Videos In Emails as A Marketing Strategy Video email marketing is a more effective technique of communicating with your customers. Videos are personal, engaging, & are great for improving conversions 14. 6 Interesting Email Marketing Facts to Quiz your Coworkers On Do you know any of these email marketing facts? I believe everyone in online business and marketing should know these. 15. How To Improve Your Cold Email Outreach ROI: Getting Higher Open and Response Rates The high ROI of email marketing, which is, by the way, is around 120%, fosters using such approaches as cold email for sales. 16. How We Used an E-mail Campaign to Bring Traffic to our Website Sometimes you just have to switch things up and break user habits to be successful. If everything is going steady, try this simple campaign switch. 17. An Introduction to Email Scraping Let's find out what email scraping is, how you can use it, and what's more important: whether it's legal or not. 18. 3 Ways Email Validation Increases Your Email Marketing Results Not sure about how email verification can increase the results of your email marketing campaigns? Here's 3 ways email validation helps you with open rates. 19. Why You Need an Email List and 3  Ways to Get Your First Subscribers Having an email list you regularly communicate with is plain smart, and it’s never too late to start. 20. 4 Email Marketing Tips to Build Automated Campaigns Begin email automation with confidence using these four tips to strengthen your marketing campaigns. 21. Building a Community for Your Brand Grow your business fast with an online brand community. Learn three great ways to do that. 22. 5 Easy Ways to Create Newsletters that Convert There are 5 tips you can use to improve your newsletter ROI.  Segmenting email is a good start as it delivers more value to the reader, but there's also more. 23. How To Draft Emails That Convert Prospectives Into Clients How to draft emails and convert clients with proper communication skills and effective email signatures. 24. Cold E-mailing: The Wonders It Could Do for You Aleksandr Volodarsky goes over the benefits of cold e-mailing. 25. Email Marketing: Cold Email Outreach Solutions Review For SMBs Email marketing is one of the best ways to reach new customers, especially when viewed from an ROI perspective. No one likes cold email outreach, honestly. The people sending them and the people receiving them don’t like it — but they work, which is why we all keep doing it. Although cold email outreach can be a bit off putting, by doing your research ahead of time and ensuring you are actually reaching out to people who might have some slight interest in your product can go a long way. 26. 4 Tricks to Increase Email Conversions and Make it Rain Baby Emails can often provide businesses with an excellent opportunity to reach new potential customers and clients – but are they worth the time and effort? 27. How to Track Email Effectiveness in Mixpanel Analytics w/Latenode.com Learn how to seamlessly incorporate Mixpanel analytics into your email communication by integrating it with Mailgun using Latenode.com automation platform. 28. 2 Easy Methods to Create a Mail Merge for Gmail There are 2 ways to mail merge in Gmail. You can either use a Google add-on that will do the job for you or build your own mail merge script in Gmail. 29. Simple Strategies and Templates for Business Email Signatures Discover extremely effective strategies for managing business email signatures - What you need to know to get started: basic elements, templates, and more. 30. 5 Email Marketing Tactics That Lead to Demand Generation Success Email marketing is a versatile tool that has the potential to generate leads through targeted outreach to reach businesses and potential decision-makers. 31. 7 Working Ideas to Market Your Business Online A common problem among many businessmen is that they know the ins and outs of the industry, understand the market and keep proper financial records but underestimate the role of promotion. 32. How To to Win at SaaS Email Marketing [Top 6 Tips] Marketing SaaS products can be challenging, especially since they have no physical presence. However, there are plenty of marketing channels to attract your target audience. Email marketing is a notable mention employed by marketers, far and wide. After all, there are 3.9 billion active email users around the world, which accounts for nearly 50% of the world’s population. Mind-blowing, isn’t it? And, interesting enough, with the booming SaaS industry, a large chunk of these emailees might be keen on your niche market. 33. 8 Essential Tips to Improve Your Email Marketing Email marketing is gaining a lot of visibility and requires the right strategies to gain more customer engagement. 34. Quantifying The ROI of Email Marketing The return on investment (ROI) for your email marketing is important so you'll need to know how to maximize it. Look at your bounce rate, open, and click rates. 35. How To Boost Your Email Conversions With An Email Preferences Page You can control your unsubscribe rate! An email preference page is a powerful tool to keep your email subscribers engaged & your unsubscribe rate down. 36. How Should You Choose An Email Marketing Platform For Your Business Email marketing is still the king of digital marketing. It remains as a top digital marketing channel with the highest return-on-investment (ROI) rates. 37. How to Pick the Best Email Marketing Platform Email marketing, where many view it as a dying industry, is still very active - by 2024, it is estimated that more than 361 billion emails will be sent each and every day. This massive resource is already being utilized by many different companies to market a wide array of products and services. Email marketing can be much more effective than other forms of marketing campaigns - email marketing campaigns have been shown to acquire 40 times more customers than Twitter and Facebook campaigns combined. Email offers can also make customers spend more than twice as much with a special email offer. Marketing professionals say that email engagement is their top metric for measuring content performance, that email is one of their top free and organic distribution channels, and that email newsletters are their most used form of content marketing. 38. How to Incorporate Conversational Marketing Into Your Email Marketing Strategy In a world where brands are fiercely competing for consumers' attention, how do you stand out? By having conversations with your customers like they'refriends. 39. Boost Your Email Marketing Conversions Using 4 Simple Strategies Are you planning to make an online purchase? Don’t forget checking the product reviews first. 40. 5 Auto-Message Sequences You Can Run Right Now In Dashly, we adore auto messages. It saves us lots of time, as they automatically generate and warm up leads. In this article, we share an easy way for you to create a message chain right now if you have never done this before. Here’s a list of five auto messages sequence which will be beneficial to both you and your clients. 41. How To Nail Video Email Marketing With Seasonal Email Campaigns Ah, so you've decided to use video marketing. A wise choice indeed, seeing as, according to Google, "6 out of 10 people prefer online video platforms to live TV". 42. Email Marketing For Tech: A Definitive Guide Tech companies can use a wide range of inbound marketing strategies to generate leads and grow their companies - but none has a higher lead conversion rate than email marketing. 43. Picture Your DRIP MARKETING On Top: Read This And Make It So The first step in developing a drip campaign is segmenting your email list. Make sure you segment your email lists properly to get the maximum response rate 44. Businesses Have Messy Emails Email sucks. What we can do about it? 45. 4 Effective Email Marketing Strategies for 2021 Here are a few email marketing strategies that work wonders for businesses, making it easier for them to achieve their conversion goals. 46. Skills Of The Modern-Day Rock Dove: Look For These In Your Email Marketing Tool Looking to invest in an email marketing tool? Read this to know what boxes an ideal tool must check off! 47. What is a Reverse Email Lookup and How do you Conduct Them? From whats and hows to best methods and best tools, here’s a perfect guide that tells everything you need to know before conducting your reverse email lookup. Thank you for checking out the 47 most read stories about Email Marketing Tips on HackerNoon. to find the most read stories about any technology. Visit the /Learn Repo

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