Editor, Crypto is Easy newsletter. #1 writer, Medium. Bitcoin author, analyst, commentator.
Have you seen bitcoin's price lately?
It's over $45,000.
The total cryptocurrency market cap just crossed $1.4 trillion. Everybody's talking about a $100,000 bitcoin, or even a $288,000 bitcoin this year.
People who said crypto was a scam at a $500 billion market cap are begging for the market cap to drop down to $500 billion.
People who said “never bitcoin” when its price was $14,000 in 2019 now ask whether they should use their next stimulus check to buy some at a price that's 3x higher than it was back then.
People who said they couldn’t afford bitcoin at $4,000 told me they’ll buy the next dip.
If you didn’t “stack sats” from January 2019 to December 2020, you may think you missed the bitcoin boat.
It’s ok! That boat will come back to harbor—maybe sooner than you think!
In a few years, you’ll laugh at the idea that anybody worried about bitcoin at $45. Its price could drop 60% immediately and remain in a healthy, long-term uptrend.
That doesn’t mean you should buy now.
Today, you’re getting a $45,000 bitcoin in the middle of a parabolic uptrend. Looking at on-chain metrics like aSOPR, percent supply in profits, MVRV, HODL waves, and almost every other long-term indicator, you see the same data you see whenever we head to market cycle peaks (and the inevitable crash that follows).
We’ve already had two +50% crashes since this bull market started in January 2019. Why not wait for a third one?
You may worry that bitcoin’s price will turn around and shoot up to $80,000 or higher.
That's realistic, but keep in mind—nothing fundamentally changes when bitcoin’s price goes up and down. It’s no more valuable at $100,000 than $10,000. A boom from $9,800 to $45,000 did not make bitcoin any more or less risky.
Why worry about price?
If you bought bitcoin at $100 and sold it at $2,000, you made 20x on your investment.
If you bought bitcoin at $1,000 and sold it at $20,000, you made 20x on your investment.
If you bought bitcoin at $10,000 and plan to sell it at $200,000, you will make 20x on your investment.
Same result, regardless of price.
Whether you have 100 BTC or .001 BTC, you get the same benefits as the price goes up.
There’s a reason dollar-cost averaging works so well. You take price out of the equation. What you’re left with is the opportunity. Pure opportunity.
Instead of price, think about the risks and rewards. What do you stand to lose vs. what do you stand to gain?
From September to December 2019 and March to October 2020, you had low-risk, high-reward opportunities to buy bitcoin. Anybody following my plan for bitcoin's bull market had a chance to buy bitcoin (and altcoins) at a massive discount.
Those opportunities will come again. Bitcoin’s price will not go up forever.
Eventually, it will hit a market cycle peak and crash 70-80% so you can accumulate bitcoin to your heart’s content.
In between peaks, you usually get multiple drops of 40% or more. Those are perfect times to buy. The risks are low and the upside is literally infinite.
Could we get one of those opportunities now?
You bet. Even a drop to $18,000 would make a lot of sense. It would fit bitcoin’s historical price movements and align with typical crashes after strong moves in any asset, digital or real.
We could also go straight up to $100,000.
Don’t worry about the price. Wait for good opportunities, then act decisively. They come around maybe two to four times each year.
Subscribe to my Crypto is Easy newsletter and you’ll know when those opportunities are. You'll also get an early warning for when we will approach the market cycle peak.
When you wait until the market's zooming, you will always have the odds stacked against you. You will always have to play catch-up. And in the end, it won’t matter—up is up, 100% gains are 100% gains, and none of that depends on price.
Why chase pumps and buy dips? Wait until the market turns in your favor, then load up.
While you’re waiting, think about why you’re in this market. Do you really want bitcoin, or do you want to sell it for more of your government’s money?
Perhaps that’s a more important question than “what price should I buy bitcoin at?”
Life will give you many, many chances to make money and build wealth. Crypto has already given you lots of those chances, too—and it will again.
If you save your money and wait for those opportunities, you will not need to worry about anything that’s happening today. You will build wealth without the stress of crashes or concern about any movements in bitcoin’s price.
If you just want to get more money as quickly as possible, there’s probably an online casino just waiting for your business. Have some fun there, then come back when you care about the revolution more than you care about your government’s money.
Bitcoin will be here waiting for you—possibly with another opportunity of a lifetime.
Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also a top bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon. His three books explore the social, cultural, and business challenges of cryptocurrency. Learn more about him in his bio.
Originally published on Voice.com.
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