Bitcoin Halving - ELI5 [Part II]

As the Bitcoin block reward halving draws near, the expectations seem to intensify as well. Previous halvings have yielded a significant increase in Bitcoin's value, after all.

Understanding the Bitcoin Halving Trend

Within the financial ecosystem, history tends to repeat itself quite often. There are market cycles, which can often be influenced by historical events of sorts. In the Bitcoin world, the block reward halving is one such historical event.

It appears every four years, making it relatively rare. To this date, there have been two prior block reward halvings. Both of these have changed the landscape significantly. Particularly where the Bitcoin price is concerned, there may be plenty of market action to look forward to. 

As the daily generated supply of Bitcoin decreases, the world's leading cryptocurrency confirms its deflationary system. Satoshi Nakamoto envisioned a system very different from traditional finance.  Rather than continually increasing the maximum supply of funds, Bitcoin has a fixed supply cap. Once all 21 million BTC is generated, there will be no further increases.

With just 6.25 BTC to be generated per block after the halving, fewer BTC will be added to the market. From that point, 900 BTC is entering the market every day for the next four years. In 2024, that daily supply will be cut in half once again. This cycle will repeat itself until the 21 millionth Bitcoin has been brought into circulation.

Prior Bitcoin Price Behavior

During the previous two-block reward halvings, the Bitcoin price noted a lot of positive momentum shortly after. Considering how market trends repeat themselves, this may happen again in 2020. There is never any guarantee of such a scenario playing out, however. 

The first Bitcoin halving occurred in 2012. At that time, the reward went from 50 BTC to 25 BTC per block. Its daily issuance rate went from 7,200 Bitcoin to just 3,600 Bitcoin.  

Exactly 369 days after the first Bitcoin halving, the BTC price hit its all-time high for that period. With an increase from $12,31 to $994,21, it is evident that this historical event made quite a big impact. Although it took some time to materialize, the near 7,976% increase is still incredibly impressive. 

In early July 2016, the second Bitcoin halving occurred. It reduced the reward to 12.5 BTC per block, decreasing the daily issuance to 1,800 BTC.  Similar to the previous event, the network did not suffer from any major issues, as these halvings have been coded in by Satoshi Nakamoto years in advance.

This time, it took 526 days for Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high. Not entirely surprising, as the uptrend becomes steeper once the four-digit range had been reached. 

After 526 days following the halving, a new all-time high of $19,535.70 was recorded. It represents another 2,902% increase, as the BTC price during the second halving had dropped to $650.63

What to Expect in 2020

Based on the historical data, this year's Bitcoin halving is expected to yield another steep price increase. It is possible it will take even longer than 526 days this time around.  The current price hovers near the $9,400 mark, which is less than 50% of the previous all-time high recorded in 2017. 

A lower starting price can signal a strong uptrend. Under the current circumstances, an increase of over 1,000% seems unlikely. At that rate, it would take the value per Bitcoin to over $94,000, which seems rather steep. 

A lot can happen to the Bitcoin price prior to the halving in a few months from now. The bullish run-up to this historical event seemingly hasn't materialized as of yet. This edition of the halving may play out very differently from previous versions. Only time will tell what the actual outcome will be. 

* This article should not be used as or considered investment advice. If you have questions regarding cryptocurrencies, tokens, or any financial investments, please consult your financial advisor.